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This report in WSJ looks at the unanimous vote in the House of Representatives delisting hundreds of Chinese companies trading on U.S. stock exchanges. The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act passed by unanimous voice vote in the House of Representatives after a similar vote in the Senate in May, and will be signed into law by president Trump. The law says foreign companies should be delisted if they fail to comply with U.S. Public Accounting Oversight Board regulatory agency's financial audits for 3 years in a row. The basis of the law is that all companies should be equally treated and required to meet U.S. regulatory standards to be listed. It also ensures safety for investors who may be defrauded of their money investing in companies that have not met such audit requirements. Wirecard in Germany and some Chinese companies have failed in the past because of lax overseas standards. This gives three years for the Chinese companies to prepare. This report also points out that the MSCI Index has 43% Chinese companies even more than before. American investors can still buy these stocks on the Hong Kong exchanges so that if fairness and investor protection should prevail American investors have to think and act along the same lines. China is also decoupling from the U.S. to some extent and pushing to have its companies listed on the Hong Kong Shanghai and  Shenzen stock exchanges. For these reasons the access to global capital is not likely to be affected by this law particularly with the behaviour of major American institutional investors. China is providing incentives to these investors even though it did not do so in the past creating another hurdle to the goal of creating a level playing field in regulatory requirements stock for all companies listed on American exchanges and safety for investors.  ...

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China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, countries that are part of the G-20 are not part of the G-8. Without the developing countries no real progress can be made on climate change or on emissions control. Climate change was a key focus of this summit in Itlay for the G-8 but with India and China only on the sidelines and acting more as an opposition excluded from the main deliberations the whole climate change agenda had to be shelved. The European countries lose influence in an enlarged summit so the G-8 keeps going along. Sweden holds the rotating Presidency of the EU, so the Swedes are there also. And so is Portugal in away with Manuel Barroso representing the European Commisssion. Except Japan, Asia is not represented, and no country from Africa or Latin America is represented. The European club looks like an anachronism and it is. Merkel and Sarkozy say they know this, but there is too much resistance in Europe to giving up this privilege. When the Guardian reported that Italy may be left out in future meetings of an expanded summit. the Italian press and the Italian prime minister Berlusconi denounced the report. Other countries that lose influence in an expanded arrangement are Canada and Japan. ...

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Drier weather is affecting wheat production in Europe, India, Brazil and other countries. This is happening as the war in Ukraine and blockade of Black sea ports such as Odessa is affecting supplies from Ukraine. A more than 5% fall in French wheat production is expected. France is the fifth largest producer of wheat after China, India, Russia, and the US. It is the 4th biggest wheat exporter. EU forecasts for wheat are for about 279 million metric tons in 2022-2023 growing season, down 4% because of dry weather. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization FAO says in its twice a year Global Food Report that global grain production including corn, wheat and other grains is expected at 2.78 billion metric tons in 2022 down almost 16 million metric tons from 2021. It is the first decline in 4 years and much of this is from the problems in Ukraine. India has banned wheat exports for food security reasons after the drier weather.  And Russian production of grains faces problems because paying for Russian grains is more complicated. ...

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Competition in the Chinese market between Coca Cola and pepsi is shifting from the traditional carbonated beverages to juices, teas and non-carbonated drinks. Pepsi sells pulp based juiced under the name Tropicana Pulp Sacs, and Coca Cola has Minute Maid Pulpy. The Chinese governmet has discouraged acquisitions, and did not approve Coke's $2.4 billion acquisition of fruit juice manufacturer China Huiyuan Juice Group Ltd. Growth has to be maintained by investing and developing their own products for local tastes and culture. Both Pepsi and Coca Cola plan increased investments in China. Pepsi has 27 plants, five farms, and over 20,000 employees in China and expects to double the number of employees by 2015. Pepsi executives say Pepsi is following a"seed to shelf" approach in China, growing food on farms and developing teas and snacks for local tastes. In China Pepsi has a Lay line of chips with cool-cucumber flavors and Cao Ben le line of drinks based on Yin and Yang, cooling and warming. Pepsi's 13% growth in snack volume and 10% growth in beverage volume for its Asian, Middle East and Africa operations are mainly because of this growth in China and India. By contrast soft drink sales have declined for 5 years in the USA and come under criticism because of high levels of obesity in the USA. Pepsi's strategy is to move further into the interior of China, further west according to Pepsi executives. It plans to invest $2.5 billion in about 12 new food and beverage plants in the interior of China to be built over 3 years. Coke announced a $2 billion investment in late 2009, and is a lead sponsor for the Shanghai Expo. ...

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Making some territorial concessions appears to be the only way for peace talks to succeed. For a long time there was insistence on territorial sovereignty of Ukraine by EU and NATO leaders. This appears to have prolonged the war- with needless loss of life on both sides, and costly damage to Ukraine infrastructure, a population that had to face additional winters and hardship in war ravaged areas. NATO's Stoltenberg from Norway, leaders of northern Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK, could take that position without having to face the hardship of the war. NATO had to be re-formed under a new name and new structure  following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with wariness about the possibility of centuries old since 1700 UK and Nordic historical adversarial relationship with Russia casting a shadow over that organization, and embroiling the US in conflicts not of its own choice or of wise leadership. This is the root cause of the Ukraine war. It would have been best to completely restructure NATO and give it a new name without Northern European nations leading it. Principles matter once soviet communism was no longer there NATO formed for its expansionism in 1950's had served it's purpose. Rasmussen from Denmark and Stoltenberg from Norway led the organization for the last decade and half from 2009-2014 and 2014 to 2025, with backing from Obama/Merkel for most of the period of the war in Ukraine. Also most of the period NATO expanded to Russian borders happened under Northern European leaders from Spain, Britain and Nordics (Solana, Robertson, Scheffer, Rasmussen and Stoltenberg) and the organization NATO getting the northern European slant based on historical adversarial relationship of Britain and Russia since 1700- for no other reason than the British wanting to protect its large Empire and commerce in India which in the 18th and 19th century included most of Asia. Under Robertson the UK Defense Secretary much of this transformation into turning NATO into something anti-Russian happened which was primarily because of British and Nordic perceptions of Russia as an adversary. Robertson added the following countries at the Prague Summit in 2002 to NATO- the Baltics, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Russia faced internal upheaval in those years and Yeltsin in resigned in 1999, Putin was elected in 2000. It is clear that Russia had suffered severe economic hardship in that period and Putin's first goal in 2002 was to stabilize the economy.  It could be said that this turning NATO over to UK and Nordics was a huge mistake considering that Russia was still the largest nuclear power after the US, and British policy was now determining US policy. And Britain's Robertson/NATO should not have involved itself in the Afghanistan war using Article 5, as the US could have handled this alone and limited that engagement. It got US involved in another conflict, conflict with Russia that was to come in Ukraine on the side of the Baltics and Ukraine, without US clearly understanding what the roots of that war was about and implied confrontation with Russia 20 years after the Prague Summit in 2002 under George Bush junior. The incompetence of Bush and Obama/Merkel laid the seeds of the Ukraine war in 2022 following Robertson, Rasmussen, Stoltenberg, small Nordic nations and Britain creating a conflict that did not need to happen, with loss of hundreds of thousands of lives of Russian speaking fraternal peoples of both Russia and Ukraine. The Republican sentiment under DJT of the tragedy of such huge losses of young people, and desire to end this loss of life, can nowhere be seen in bellicose talk in northern European nations, that take the US for granted to fight their wars.  The wisdom of Washington, Lincoln and TR/FDR clearly caution in getting involved in European centuries old animosities. For the US it meant in practical terms that it could no longer carry out the Monroe Doctrine essential for peace and good governance in the western hemisphere as only a Russia desperate to make its views known about NATO would interfere in the western hemisphere against US assertion of the Monroe Doctrine with the US Navy. Instead drug trafficking gangs took over Latin American countries and created a flow of fentanyl and millions of people through migrant traffickers across the US southern border. As America has expressed its concern for loss of Russian and Ukrainian men in the war for the first time under DJT Russia has distanced itself from Venezuela, Mexico and Latin America. The loss of hundreds of thousands of young Americans to fentanyl is a shared tragedy with the loss of hundreds of thousands of young Russians and Ukrainians in the last decade. How reliable are Northern European countries when it comes to protecting the eastern seaboard of the US with the acquisition of Greenland? It is a policy pursued by presidents since the Alaska Acquisition from Russia. By Seward, Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman and DJT. Denmark the land where NATO secretary general Rasmussen was from followed by Stoltenberg from Norway  (for 15 of the years of the war in Ukraine 2010-2025) the US efforts to protect its eastern seaboard are rebuffed by both Denmark and Norway, and the US presented in a negative light as an imperialist power in the face of Danish East India Company's  colonial attitude since 1700 clearly imitating the colonial British East India company.  It shows Northern European nations looking out for themselves not for the US, and embroiling the US in their wars at the cost of the entire western hemisphere being destabilized. The population of UK, Denmark and Norway, Baltics is far less than the Mumbai, Shanghai, Sao Paulo , Berlin and Tokyo regions. Should the views of a small population in northern Europe of 2% of the total determine the future of US, Europe, China, India, Brazil, and other parts of the world with 5 billion people the 98%, when issues of war and nuclear conflict, nuclear buildup, the western hemisphere destabilized with drug trafficking gangs running rampant in countries, divide the world in opposing blocs, when the wellbeing of most of the world's people in Asia and Latin America, Africa is at stake by establishing a essential degree of cooperation by all sides. The US under DJT has chosen a wise policy of cooperation over conflict -with China, with Russia, with all the major powers, and with smaller powers. Reading the wisdom contained in the writings of Washington, Lincoln, TR/FDR confirms it is clearly the wise choice. ...

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Robert Kaiser, former managing editor of The Washington Post, reviewed this book on Joe McCathy in The Washington Post on August 7, 2020. It shows the link with today of Senator Joe McCarthy and Roy Cohn, the then 27 year old lawyer chief counsel of the senate subcommittee on investigation when Joe McCarthy became chairman in Jan. 1953. The book is-  Demagogue The Life and Long Shadow of Senator Joe McCarthy by Larry Tye. Roy Cohn passed on some of the methods used at that time to Mr. Trump. Kaiser points out that the senator Joe McCarthy assembled "a coalition of the aggrieved." Tye shows that it started with the junior senator from Wisconsin making a speech in West Virginia for Lincon Day dinner to the Republican ladies of Wheeling, W. Va. The senator used it to talk about threat of communists working in the State Department. He claimed there were 205 Communists. Today we know that this was just made up by McCarthy, at a time when Winston Churchill made the speech about the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union and a sense of shock in America at the People's Republic of China being formed in 1949 under CCP chairman Mao tse tung. McCarthy saw this as an opportunity to gain prominence and a Senate career. What is seen from this carefully researched book is that for a while it succeeded in putting many of the Nation's best leaders on the defense. This includes Harry Truman, Eisenhower himself who disdained McCarthy's and Cohn's methods, Gen George Marshall who was a mentor to Dwight EIsenhower, Joe Stilwell, and other military leaders who ran the 1940's war effort under Marshall in Europe against the Nazis and in China against the Japanese imperialists. On the domestic side it included the head of TVA and the new Atomic Agency setup by president Truman. Gallup said at that time of McCarthy's 38% support in the US following his censure in US Senate by 67-22  -even if it was known that McCarthy killed five innocent children they would still go along with him. Tye writes that in that atmosphere similar to the sense of shock at China's rise and America's loss of manufacturing and falling behind in infrastructure by 2016, in that atmosphere if one told a small lie or big lie it made not much difference in public's penalty or censure, then why not tell a whopper of a lie. This became the ethic for a while in 2016-2024 similar to the period till the collapse of McCarthyism in America by 1957 with McCarthy's death in 1957 and in 1960 the election of John F. Kennedy. What is forgotten is that Richard Nixon a young senator from California was part of the group in Congress, so that in some shape or form it existed and remained part of the Reagan efforts to push back against the Soviets that led to wars in Afghanistan and then Iraq sapping the Nation's energies and resources and with faulty economic theory allowed China to dominate key industries and outspend America in infrastructure investment, creating the kind of shock that led to the second McCarthyist decade under Mr. Trump. ...

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The auto sector has an outsized effect on economic growth that is not easily grasped. The IMF sees a fifth of slowdown in growth of global gross domestic product and a third of world trade coming just from low demand for autos. The auto sector feeds into demand for steel, aluminium, copper, plastic and electronics, so it feeds into other sectors. Aging populations, stagnant incomes, ride sharing, and economic headwinds on trade for China, slower demand with lower economic activity in India from bad loans and low credit in the finance sector, all have cut into growth. Tariffs from president Trump and tit for tat tariffs increase costs and cut into profits. In Europe there is added factor of mandated drop in carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by 2021. The new technology will increase costs of autos by 800 to 5000 euros and add 5-11% to the selling price, reducing sales by about 5%.  A fast growing market is India but companies such as Ford and GM have moved out as it slows down. Higher emissions standards in India for 2020 are likely to increase prices in a very price sensitive market. Lower availability of credit in China and India have led to drop in sales of about 15% in both major markets for autos since mid 2018.   ...

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The meeting of G7 leaders and of leaders from India, Indonesia and Argentina, South Africa, ended with a sense that economic sanctions the preferred tool against the Russian invasion are not working after 3 months. Discussions with India, Indonesia and other poor countries show the need for the developing countries for access to their large populations of oil at reduced prices from the recent skyrocketing prices. With oil and energy purchases made by China and India and other poor countries for reasons of price discounts from $125 per barrel oil, Russia is able to sell oil in other markets making up in price for the drop in volume. 

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This WSJ report looks at Hancock Prospecting's efforts to control the Kathleen Valley lithium project in western Australia. Lithium was discovered in 1817 and today is an essential component for electric batteries that power phones, EV cars. The world needs 50 lithium mines for action to meet climate change goals. The market for lithium was $1.5 billion in 2014, it is now $48 billion. It is found in the Atacama desert in Chile, in Western Australia and other countries. Mobil has invested in Arkansas. Hancock Prospecting in Australia, Albemarle in Charlotte, NC, SQM in Chile, and China's Ganfeng are competing for stakes in lithium mines. 

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Common sense comes to the German Border with Merz and the national emergency rule at the border, just as has happened under DJT at the US Border. May 8-25 turned back at Germany's borders with 9 European countries about 100 persons- success of national emergency rule at the German Border. This relieves not only pressure on public services in German towns and cities, it also removes a source of anxiety in the people who experienced political divisions and random attacks in public spaces from migrants. It also removes the threats of extreme factions in politics that have used the migrant crisis for exacerbating political divisions. Merkel's policy was not workable from the beginning and based on assumptions that were not correct as Germany and the EU could do more to improve the modernization and improving health and education, industry and agriculture inside Asia, North Africa to help the people in these regions than by taking in migrants. Who has ever suggested migration to Europe or the US  as a solution to the problems of China and India in the 1930's and 1940's, from wars and even famines. The right solutions of decolonization turning back invasions into the 1940's, and providing technology and capital for modernization after 1950 and accelerating this after 2000 have created two modernized nations of 2 billion people. ...

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What was first seen as an advantage, the lack of any leaders of the Hong Kong protests, more of a spontaneous movement, is now a liability. With the effort to shut down the Hong Kong airport public sympathy has decreased for the protests in China, especially as it hurts the tourism and retail sectors. This also happened on the popular Weibo microblogging service with support increasing for Hong Kong police handling of events at the airport.

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Yvette Cooper, UK Home Secretary, continues to pursue a policy of keeping open asylum hotels even as the UK public opinion on asylum seekers shifts, with large parts of the population not supporting it. Immigration is the top issue in Britain and keeping asylum seekers in hotels at government expense is highly unpopular. Giving Reform UK support that it did not have in 2024. A WSJ report shows the problems UK immigration policy is running into in 2025 under Labour.  Editorial opinion in The Times of London says Farage's ideas on stopping migrants should be heard, as both Conservatives and Labour have not got it right, with surging numbers of migrants as long as policies on benefits favor migrant flow. It is plain common sense. The irony is that for most of the British Empire since 1600 during colonization there were no such policies favoring immigrants much less illegal migrants, colonial peoples had no such rights in British colonies in China or India much less in Britain that are now being offered to migrants coming illegally under the European Convention of Human Rights. Asian people pulled themselves up by the bootstraps- Japan, Taiwan, China, and India, and never depended on such Conventions. Some ideas in The Times of London say the UK military should be given the task of protecting the waters around Britain and some troops stationed in France to prevent illegal boat crossings where they start, considering that such action was taken during the recent Olympics in France. ...

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President Moon Jae-In of South Korea will meet Mr. Kim of North Korea in a summit in late April after envoys from South Korea visited Pyongyang, North Korea, for 2 days of talks. The talks come against the background of the WInter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, where the 2 Koreas sent a joint team as part of reconciliation efforts.  North Korea agreed to denuclearize said a South Korean government statement after the talks, saying- "The North Korean side clearly stated its willingness to denuclearize. It made it clear that it would have no reason to keep nuclear weapons if the military threat to the North was eliminated and its security guaranteed." Working level discussions will be held before the Kim- Moon summit meeting and a hotline phone connection will be setup between the two leaders. A recent report in the WSJ shows China for the first time tightening sanctions on the North. Japan has joined the U.S. in taking a tough stand and its foreign minister said that the offer for abandonment of nuclear weapons has come before and North Korea has resumed its nuclear weapons development each time. U.S. experts say that security guarantees were offered by the Clinton administration, including in writing, but this has not prevented the North from moving ahead with its nuclear program. This is the first time Kim, 34 years, has met with senior envoys from the South since assuming power in 2011. The WInter Olympics in Pyeongchang with Mr Kim's sister attending and bringing an offer for a summit meeting, were the first such contacts in years between the 2 Koreas. The new offer comes with an offer to stop nuclear tests, yet leaves open the manufacture of fissile materials say experts. The U.S. and Japan are deeply skeptical and insist on complete and verifiable proof of abandonment of the nuclear program. ...

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Prof. Scott Kennedy of the Research center for Chinese Politics and Business, voices concerns of experts who think that the $585 billion stimulus and the doubling of lending this year, increase in exports by a third last month, all point to an economy that is expanding too quickly. Kennedy says that no one defies economic laws, that eventually endless growth can get get you in trouble. The concern is whether the overexpansion of credit and the size of the stimulus may have led to overreaction in stimulus spending. People's Daily newspaper of China said that China's leaders are moving much faster than leaders of developed nations. But the flip side of this is that in the rush to increase spending there may be a lot of wasteful spending resulting in many bad loans a few years from now.

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It is no surprise what we see in the US today- the loss of the middle class, the unaffordability crisis for education, healthcare, childcare, and poor, broken infrastructure. Over 10 years the US trade deficit with China has led to loss of about 25 million jobs and $250 billion in taxes that support local infrastructure and public services. Where 20% of the people do 80% of the spending, 80% of the people only 20% of spending (Moody's Analytics). This is how the uneven trade led to the destruction of manufacturing centers and communities across the 51 states in America, devastating families and young people. This is no longer Washington's, Lincon's or FDR's land of opportunity. Each $1 billion in additional imports to the US costs 4252 jobs. (CPA) This can be read as how many jobs are being lost in the additional trade of goods when one side is exporting more than the other.  There are three levels of losses. There is also an indirect job loss in the number of jobs created by that one job in manufacturing to serve the needs of these factory families in communities. This can be estimated at 1 job that depends on 1 manufacturing job. Together this means 8500 jobs lost for every $1 billion of goods in a trade deficit. US trade deficit of $295 billion in 2024 with China translates into about 2.5 million jobs lost every year. Over 10 years this is about 20-25 million jobs, enough to decimate America's entire manufacturing capabilities and manufacturing infrastructure, whole communities and towns disappearing or suffering destruction across the country.  With the loss of these jobs comes a third cost, the taxes paid that maintain small town infrastructure and public services like libraries, schools and health centers where these factories are located. At $10,000 in taxes lost per job, for 8500 jobs lost per $1 billion in uneven trade there is a loss of $85 million.  For the $295 billion deficit the US has with China this loss adds up to $25 billion per year. Over 10 years this means taking out this much in local infrastructure and public services like libraries, schools and health centers worth $250 billion.  ...

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In this exceptional story a psychotherapist in Seattle reaches out to talk to doctors and nurses in China. Herself from Guanzhou before moving to the U.S. and looking for ways to help ease the stress from the coronavirus crisis. 

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This report from Brazil is of major relevance to India in its growth efforts, and for aging societies such as China. In many ways showing the price countries and the people pay when growth is mismanaged. A major crisis is hitting countries such as Brazil as fewer young people and young workers support an aging population of retirees. This is to be seen in the money allocated in Brazil's budget- only 3% goes to infrastructure, 3% to education, health gets 7%, and retirement system takes up as much as 43% of the budget. Increasing retirement obligations are nearly bankrupting the Rio de Janeiro state government.  At the core of this crisis is a steadily aging population that is happening now faster than in the developed world. Also part of this is the fact that fertility rates have dropped rapidly in Brazil, the rest of Latin America, and in China. It took just 27 years in Brazil and 11 years in China for fertility rates to drop from 6 to below 3, creating a situation where there are fewer young people to join the workforce as retirees live longer and the retired population increases. This report shows that it took 82 years for the fertility rates to drop from 6 to 2 in the U.S. so that the U.S. had a longer period in which to build up infrastructure.  Only 50% of Brazil's sewage is treated, and sanitation systems need investment. The average adult has about 8 years of schooling. An unfunded and unfundable social security system means infrastructure, health and public services such as transportation will remain unfunded for years to come. China's policymakers have done far better by building infrastructure rapidly yet face the same squeeze of aging population lower fertility rates as China's modernization continues. India needs to learn from such failures and successes in framing its own policies. Unrealistic giveaways or promises such as Brazil's retirement age of 55 and poor priorities of soccer stadiums in the northeast over sanitation, health, education, have a steep price. Good intentions are not enough as the Workers Party in Brazil granted pensions to farmers and informal workers without generating the sustained growth needed for funding the pension system, with $3 billion paid in and $36 going out for this added benefit.    ...

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There is a growing need in China for cultural content on women's issues. When women were not allowed in schools in the Imperial Era women used a language called Nushu used to communicate. This is shown on film in "Hidden Letters" which is popular in China.

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Jack Ma of Alibaba is a very different person in 2023. This WSJ report looks at his activities in 2022 which included a stay in Hakone, Japan, visits within Japan, visit to Netherlands, Fiji. His current interest is in food production and meeting the agricultural needs in China over the next 20 years. Most of the time he is anonymous and people in the vicinity have no idea that this is Jack Ma.

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Charter 08 published on the intenet by 400 Chinese citizens living inside China calls for democratic change in China and calls attention to abuses that have ocurred in China during the last 2 decades. It calls for a new constitution for establishing multiparty democracy.

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Negotiators for Climate Change talks meeting in Katowice, Poland helped develop a rule book to support efforts made for the Paris Accords. The U.S. joined the European Union, Canada and China in putting forward compromise language. 

The question of setting up a carbon market was put off for the future.

On the aid to developing countries to reduce emissions in their generation of power the commitment of $100 billion by 2020 from Article 9 of the Paris Accords was seen by some countries including the U.S. as too high. China does not contribute, and only the European Union with Germany doubling its contribution took the lead. That climate fund has so far raised $10 billion.

The U.S. point of view was that no country should sacrifice economic prosperity and energy security for environmental sustainabililty. Yet the U.S. has participating in developing the rule book for climate change efforts stemming from the Paris Accords.

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Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute points to trade barriers reducing competition and free trade that should raise an outcry when free trade and competition advocates focus alone on the Trump steel tariffs. He points to estimates that show $90 billion in additional costs to Americans from the barriers that prevent Americans from paying world market prices for surgeries and medical treatment, prices similar to what is paid in advanced countries like Germany, Britain and France. A bigger barrier in pharmaceuticals prices being sheltered from market competition worldwide costs a huge $370 billion in additional costs to Americans. These two costs in healthcare would help Americans by a magnitude compared to tax cuts that do not work for average Americans with the business tax cut going more into share buybacks than into increasing wages or capital investment in 2018.  Bernstein points to Neil Irwin's column in the NYT that flags statements such as Senator Mike Lee, Republican, that the steel tariffs are a huge job killing tax hike, as being misleading. Bernstein says two actions were never taken that would have used benefits of free trade to help affected communities that lost jobs in industries such as steel and textiles, other industries affected by foreign competition.  He lists these steps as sectoral employment training, apprenticeships ,and job creation efforts in the worst affected areas. Basically no one really knows what is good trade policy, the textbook concepts and theories are out of date when countries can subsidize particular industries such as steel and dump products into the American market. At a press conference on CSPAN with the Swedish prime minister Mr. Trump stated that China was exporting more than what is officially shown as there are transshipments from other countries, some of them with no steel mills.  As Mr. Trump stated at that press conference he was elected partly because of the worst affected communities- in places such as Michigan and other states in the midwestern U.S.- that suffered from unfair trade. Bernstein admonishes the economists and politicians, media, for the headlines that are misleading in showing that bad trade policy is being pursued and trade wars are being started. This deserves attention because the Trump administration and advisors such as Lighthizer who served in the Reagan administration seek fair trade, and the Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross successfully pushed for NAFTA trade deal renegotiation not the outright rejection of NAFTA that was mentioned in the election campaign. Ironically no one is helped by this trade rhetoric and misleading headlines. In fact the strengthening of the U.S. currency as the huge trade surplus of China goes into U.S. assets, and with the election of Mr. Trump, gives foreign competitors a continued advantage. And in fact Japan, South Korea, China, had a mild response to the tariffs as reported, because these countries are aware of global overcapacity created especially by China which produces 50% of the world's steel, and as China shifts to higher technologically value added products closing many older steel mills. ...

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The White House gives details of a new Trade Agreement with Indonesia. There will be zero tariffs on exports to Indonesia of US goods. Indonesia will have lower tariffs of 19% on most products, and higher duties of 40% on goods that are sent through Indonesia to evade tariffs such as from China. Indonesia will place no restrictions on export of rare earth minerals. Indonesia will remove non tariff barriers by action to accept U.S. safety regulations for automobiles, medical devices and pharmaceuticals, and remove preshipment inspections for US agricultural products.

Its significance is that Indonesia is a producer of rare earth minerals giving US full access. Indonesia has a large population of 250 million and this opens up markets for US farmers. It means US energy products and pharmaceuticals, and aircraft makers have access to this market. Because of far flung islands Indonesia will need more Boeing aircraft as it modernizes.

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German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says Germany will not be blackmailed. She rejected the idea that Russia is expanding its attacks on Ukraine in response to supply of longer range artillery from the US and Germany saying this was just "new propaganda from the Russian side."

Baerbock also said Germany needs to avoid a situation of being dependent on an aggressor for gas supply. Germany is now "very intensively" looking at its dependencies on China, said Baerbock. This is going to be  for "a sovereign European strategy of independence in critical infrastructure."

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Hangzhou, hard hit by closing export focussed factories, is trying a$100 million voucher program to increase spending. Since January, a fifth of the residents of this city have received $30 vouchers, and more vouchers are being issued. Taiwan just tried a voucher program with $102 going to each Taiwanese citizen. Taiwanese President Ma says 50,000 retailing jobs were saved and about two-thirds of one percent addded to GDP. The problem in China is the lack of a safety net and poor access to health care, that is making average Chinese to save over one fourth of incomes. Consumer spending is 35% of GDP. The government has focussed on exports, and used export generated revenues for huge infrastructure spending. With exports down by over 25% in January, the export model is fading away quickly. Japan and Taiwan have seen much higher drops in exports, and China should see even more deceleration in exports, with a lag of some months, as a lot of products made in China use parts made in countries like Japan and Taiwan. The China Development Research Foundation says one fourth of the population have no health insurance at all. Though by some estimates this number may be about two thirds of China's 1.3 billion people. Hundreds of millions of people have huge bills for treatment of serious illness that are not covered by even the most basic insurance. Public pensions cover less than one third of the workers. And an estimated 130 million migrant workers have no unemployment insurance. Even payments to the poor reach only a fraction of people eligible. The government has only tentatively moved to correct his. And outside economists say that something needs to be done in abig way to build this safety net. The government has announced a $123 billion 3 year initiative to deliver basic, universal health care and health insurance. This follows a 3 year drive to provide compulsory and free education to students through 9th grade. David Dollar, the World Banks's country director, described ameeting with Finance Ministry officials, and wrote in areport on the Bank website that the government had the resources to expand these programs quickly. Instead the government has taken a piecemeal approach when action on a large scale is needed. One of the problems may also be that to make universal health insurance, the current health system may need to be examined and rebuilt, so that economical cost effective treatments are encouraged and costs are managed effectively. This would make universal health care affordable by keeping costs manageable, in the same way that the Obama administration is trying to do in the USA. ...