LyrArc Article Gist
The London based think tank Open Europe says the exposure from Greece puts the ECB's balance sheet at risk. A small 4.25% drop in the value of the ECB's asset holdings could wipe out the whole capital base of the ECB, according to Open Europe. The ECB holds at present 75 billion euros of Portuguese, Greek and Irish bonds on its balance sheet. In the last 12 months the ECB has increased its capital base to 10 billion euros. The decision to buy Spanish and Italian bonds increases the risk. The ECB loses money if the borrowing bank goes bankrupt or the collateral of the borrowing bank loses value. During the negotiations for the eurozone debt deal in July 2011, the ECB obtained guarantees from eurozone governments for the collateral it holds from Greece. This increases the need for the European Financial Stability Facility to take on the role of buying bonds of troubled eurozone countries.

LyrArc Article Gist
All major industrialized or OECD nations leaders ratings are low or poor in December 2024. Biden's is at 37%, Trudeau of Canada's 26%, Macron of France 19%, Scholz 18%.

Even newly elected Keir Starmer of Britain is about 34%. Ishiba of Japan 22%, Yoon South Korea 18%.

Biden's 37% looks decent in comparison. DJT at less than 50%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Facebook has invested heavily in proving that digital ads on Facebook are effective. Some of the research was done with Datalogix and other firms. About 60 ad campaigns were carefully tracked to show how consumers seeing ads on Facebook spend their dollars on products in brick and mortar stores. One ad with cuddly bears for Coca-Cola was more effective than ads on television, says CEO Sandberg. In addition to targeting users based on what users share in their Facebook profiles advertisers can now see the effects on sales. Facebook's vice president of measurements and insights, Brad Smallwood, says advertisers were given the first big report on how consumers acted after seeing ads in the real world. The results are most evident in digital advertising for mobile phones. Facebook has 6% of the $118 billion digital advertising global ad market compared to Google's 31%. The share in mobile is 18% in 2013, up from 5% in 2012. Facebook shares were up 14% or $7.55 to $61.08 on Jan. 30, 2014. Facebook's share price increased by 20% in July 2013 after a similiar announcement of improvement in mobile ad revenues. Facebook's IPO price was $38 in 2013....

LyrArc Article Gist
In a television debate Jan 18, 2017, Benoit Hamon, a 39 year old former Education minister is seen as the most effective of the French Socialist presidential candidates. He proposes a universal income that particularly supports and creates work for young people ages 18-25 years.

LyrArc Article Gist
Asset reports of Fed governors and candidates for Fed chairman show Ben Bernanke and Daniel Tarullo at the low end of $1-$3 million, Stein, Duke and Yellen at $5-$12 million in the middle, and at the high end are Summers $8-$31 million, and Powell between $17-$40 million.

LyrArc Article Gist
With hyperinflation of an astounding 1 million percent, the popularity of Mr. Maduro has slipped to 14%, says this report in the Washington Post. The opposition leader has about 60% popularity according to a recent Datanalysis poll. The military, says the Washington Post, is not defending Maduro, it is defending themselves. Even a amnesty law may not be sufficient. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Auto sales for 2010 are expected to come in at 11.5 million, a significant drop from the 17.5 million in 2000. A better job market expected to push the unemployment rate down a bit to 9.7% from 9.8% in November will help, but not by enough. Credit Suisse analyst Christopher Ceraso says each percentage point that the rate is above normal ( about 5%) keeps sales back by about a million auto sales on an annual basis. To get sales back to a 16 million range this would require an unemployment rate of 6%. Economists expect a better US economy in 2011 but the prospects remain uncertain for 2012, bringing unemployment down to about 8-9% if hiring picks up. The other concerns are high consumer debt and a rise in gasoline prices. If gas prices rise and buyers shift back to smaller vehicles, as they did in 2008, this would squeeze margins and profits. This is especially a concern as automobile companies have increased profits with a larger truck and large size vehicle component of sales, in a reverse shift after the shift to smaller cars in 2008-2009. Ford Motor is one example of this. It helps Ford use the extra profits to reduce its debt load but automakers have to be prepared for a sales shift to smaller cars in the face of higher gas prices....

LyrArc Article Gist
Prof. Admati, of Stanford, says that with the March 2012 stress tests the Fed has prematurely announced the banks are healthy. Prof. Cole of DePaul University, questions some of the assumptions used by the Fed as too optimistic even though it used a 13% unemployment rate and decline in stock and real estate values by 21%. He says the loss of $56 billon on home equity lines of credit and second lien mortgages, 13% of the portfolio, is highly underestimated. He says the legal liabilities of banks are also underestimated.

LyrArc Article Gist
Temasek's investment in Merrill approaching 10% could reach 14%. Temasek's Senior Managing Director Kejriwal says its confidence in Mr. Thain and his team remains high and Merrill's management team has grown stronger in the last 8 months, in an interview. Temasek has $10 billion invested outside Asia. Its total shareholder returns by market value have dropped from 27% the previous year to 7%, and Temasek's Chairman Dhanabalan sees the danger of stagflation as a major threat to the investment environment and sees it posing socioeconomic and political risks for the next three to five years.

LyrArc Article Gist
Transgender athletes in women's sports case is on January 13, 2026. And whether US president DJT can continue with his tariffs plan.

LyrArc Article Gist
Obama, speaking at Macomb Community College, talks about his plan to help community colleges, Community colleges are used by working adults for job retraining and learning new skills. Obama said that jobs requiring at least an associate degree are projected to grow twice as fast as jobs requiring no college experience. He said it would be difficult to fill those jobs without the training and education offered by community colleges. $12 billion in funds will be given to community colleges for ten years starting with the fiscal year beginning October 2009. The money will go toward programs that get community colleges to lift graduation rates and better train and educate students for jobs. Some of it will also go to modernizing of facilities, and some to the development of an internet curriculum available to students everywhere. Government officials say the plan would increase by 5 million the number of people who graduate from community colleges over the next 12 years. The new federal money will come from savings from the federal plan to end the role of private banks in the federal education lending system. Rep George Miller, the California Democrat who heads the House Education and Labor Committee, said that he would include the community college plan into the student loan bill, which he expects to introduce on July 15, 2009....

LyrArc Article Gist
PM Modi launches the PM Cares children's initiative for Rs 10 lakh for orphans from the pandemic in India. It also includes scholarships and money for studies. A monthly stipend will be given from the money earned from investment of Rs 10 lakh.

LyrArc Article Gist
Chandrayan 3 in the freezing cold lunar night that lasts 14 days at temperatures of -400 degree Fahrenheit or -300 degrees Centigrade. At these temperatures the connectivity with the moon lander is lost but its mission has been completed in the 14 days of lunar day.

LyrArc Article Gist
US-Swiss trade deal November 2025 for 15% US tariff in exchange for $200 billion in investment in US. This includes access to Swiss markets for the US. The agreement also will let in dairy products and chocolate to the US at 15% tariff to reduce cost of living concerns. Swiss dairy producers and chocolate makers are likely to bear most of the 15% tariff burden because of higher margins. The $2000 rebate to all Americans from tariffs is a good idea of the DJT administration to give Americans protection from the smaller share of the tariffs that are passed on to consumers that are not borne by the producers exporting to the US. Overall in that situation the US will benefit in the restructuring of world trade that the DJT administration will have accomplished without hurting American consumers and bringing large scale investment into the US for jobs and higher wages. This is the part of the DJT Deal that could help America rebuild its manufacturing and economy in new ways.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
With better control over the coronavirus than U.S. and Europe, South Korea is not rushing to buy the vaccines developed by Pfizer or Moderna. It is waiting to see how the vaccine rollouts work in other countries before buying the vaccine. South Korea is also looking at getting better price from manufacturers after the rollouts in the U.S. and Europe. South Korea is moving cautiously and has said it wants to get 10 million doses through the Covax initiative the main global effort to provide broad access to vaccines. Another 20 million doses would be secured from private companies. This is in contrast to the approach in Japan where the government has signed deals for purchase of 290 million doses for 145 million people for its population of 126 million. The money allocated is $6.5 billion and the goal is to vaccinate everyone by first half of 2021.  If it works this would prepare Japan for the Tokyo Summer Olympics to open in July, after 1 year delay. South Korea has the freedom to do this and wait to see what vaccine works best with least long term effects because their are relatively fewer cases there. A total of 313 new daily cases on November 18, lower than daily cases in a single county in the state of Michigan in the U.S. Moderna and Pfizer vaccines use anew kind of gene based technology that has never been approved to prevent infectious diseases. Other competition is the vaccine from Oxford and Astra Zeneca which uses an existing technology that is used in existing vaccines modified for use in coronavirus. The Oxford vaccine and a vaccine from Johnson and Johnson are expected to have a lower price. Because life is functioning very close to normal South Korea is in the unusual position of saying that its people have no reason to be anxious for vaccine procurement, as indicated by its deputy director of Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Only three fifths of the population is the target for vaccination by fall of 2021. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
It took a week longer for each country to impose a lockdown. In China first Wuhan then the whole country went into lockdown and quarantine. The same process is repeated in Europe and in America as authorites see numbers of infections increasing rapidly without strict controls. First the Lombardy region in Italy around Milan, then the provinces in Northern Italy, followed by a complete lockdown in the country on March 10 as infection spread faster without lockdown and enforcement of lockdowns. Germany and Britain follow Spain and Italy on March 20. France followed Spain in the days after Italy's complete lockdown. Macron ordered the lockdown on March 16 with stringent enforcement. Infectious Disease specialists at Imperial College warned of "unintended consequences for the entire nation" if a lockdown of Britain did not take place. The goal is to limit the spread of infections from rapid to slow as public health systems and economic measures are ramped up in preparation for the crisis. Most countries were lacking the preparatory steps having lost time waiting to see what happens next or analyzing data in the vain hope the virus does not spread.  Bad economic results of lockdowns were initially a concern, but this concern became less important as the coronavirus spread rapidly in Europe. Decision makers in Europe decided that not acting forcefully would lead to equally or worse economic outcomes. Public health systems overwhelmed would diminish public confidence rapidly and lead to equally bad or much worse economic outcomes. The European Union executive body has supported state aid, stimulus action and border controls in this crisis. In America and in Europe the hope is that shoring up the safety net with massive aid to businesses and households would buy time to tackle and overcome the coronavirus through a combination of lockdowns, quarantines, contact tracing, large scale testing and medical technology measures. The examples of China, South Korea, Taiwan showed this pathway exists for phased control and reducing fatalities to zero. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Antonis Samaras, leader of Greece's New Democracy Party, opposes the tax increases mandated by the E.U.'s June 2011 program for Greece. He supports the spending cuts. The shrinking economy with no hope for recovery under the current plan will only worsen the situation. The Greek economy declined by 4.5% in 2010 and will decline 3% to 4% in 2011, and unemployment is already at 16%, with much higher unemployment among young people. Many experts, and editorials in the Wall Street Journal and the Economist, share this opinion. With the austerity program's cuts and tax increases deeply unpopular among ordinary Greeks Samaras's party is moving ahead of Prime Minister Papandreou's socialist party in public opinion polls. Papandreou is not expectd to complete his term of office which ends in 2013, and a change of government may come by the end of 2011. At that point the E.U. leaders will have to negotiate with Samaras. Samaras says he told German chancellor Merkel- if your plan works I will say I was wrong, but if it doesn't you will need a new plan....

LyrArc Article Gist
The US is facing a new pattern of demographic changes and their impact on Medicare and Social Security programs. The number of people on Medicare will grow in 2 decades, 2010- 2030, from 47 million to 80 million for Medicare, and from 44 million to 73 million for Social Security, according to this estimate. The workforce will grow more slowly and the tax base wiill shrink accordingly during this period. This pending worker-pensioner imbalance and the jump in the cost of the bill for Medicare and Medicaid, as well as the federal health benefit for poor people, create a major problem for the US. At the same time the group of people over 65 will rise in these 2 decades from 17% of the voting age population to 26%. This group and the people who expect to soon join this group will resist any changes to Medicare or Social Security programs, making it that much harder for the political process to tackle these issues to make the programs sustainable in the long run.

LyrArc Article Gist
A new WSJ/NBC poll shows Trump and Clinton with high disapproval ratings with all registered voters. Clinton's and Trump's disapproval ratings are higher now after increasing negative coverage in the media. Trump has a 65 percent negative rating and Clinton a 56 percent negative rating with all registered voters. Among Republican voters Cruz has a gap of 15 percentage points between him and Trump for negative ratings- Cruz at 27 percent and Trump at a high of 42 percent. In positive ratings Cruz edges out Trump by 3 percentage points 45 percent to 42 percent. Among all registered voters Cruz has nearly 50% negative rating compared to Clinton's at 56 percent, and 26% viewing him positively only 6 points behind Hillary Clinton at 32 percent. These new figures suggest Cruz would be competitive with Clinton if Clinton were to get the nomination, and Cruz were to win at the second ballot following an improving result at the primaries including California because of Trump's huge gap in negative ratings with Republican voters compared to Cruz. The 1912 election provides a glimpse of how national party conventions were determined by shifting support- Clark the Democratic candidate with the most delegates was not nominated when the Tammany Hall machine supported Clark leading to the withdrawal of support from William Jennings Bryan of the liberal wing of the Democratic party. The nomination then went to Woodrow Wilson, the next leading candidate, on the 46th ballot....