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NYT Guest essay on Germany in 2026 with 6 state elections coming up, by Anna Sauerbrey, Editor of Die Zeit German Weekly. German leader Merz is on a 2 day visit to the US and will go over topics- Merz's visit to China, US trade policy after US Supreme Court decision, the war with Iran and German cooperation without being directly involved. Sauerbray looks at the situation in Germany with AfD expected to win in one of the states to form a government, the decline of the SDP and the role CDU now plays in Germany. The shift in mood to tight control over migrant entry in Europe.

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Testifying at Southwark Crown Court in London, UBS trader Adoboli said: "I absolutely lost control. I was no longer in control of the decisions around the trades we were doing... My ability to think rationally and deeply was gone." The trades led to losses of $2.3 billion for UBS.

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The new India built refinery by RIL (Reliance India Limited) in the US at Brownsville, Texas, will reduce US trade balance by $15 billion a year and will produce oil using cleaner US shale oil and newer technologies that are less polluting for the environment.  India's RIL Refinery Project for $300 billion at Brownsville, Texas, is Explained here in the Indian Express. The Project is called America First Refining, and was announced by the US president recently.  $125 billion for 60 million barrels of US shale oil processed annually over 20 years and $175 billion for 2.5 billion gallons of refined product to be produced annually for 20 years. US  imports about 2.8 billion barrels a year and (exports 1 billion barrels a year) at a cost of $180 billion a year. This means the trade imbalance from crude imports will be cut by about 10% annually. The new refinery is the first in 50 years and is designed to process cleaner lighter shale oil from the US Permian Basin -whereas existing refineries are designed with older technology for heavier crude oil such as the US gets from Venezuela. Reliance India Limited has a fast turnaround time on projects- new project will come onstream in 2027. It currently has the world's largest single refining complex in Jamnagar, Gujarat, India.  ...

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Mandelson and Schwab oinst fingers at eaach other.Mandelson is the top Eu trade negotiator and Schwab represented the USA. Mandelson point to schwab protecting its cotton lobby and US farm interests. Critical for China and India is protecting their food security and growing enough so they do have to depend on imports to feed their 2 billion people. And also the need to protect the poor farmers in both countries as both countries have hundreds of millions of people in the rural interior who earn their livelihood by farming. And even though China has expanded in industrial production much of the industrialization is in the areas near the coast, with a vast rural farming countryside.

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Starmer's visit to China and the result being halving of tariffs- it comes 8 years after Theresa May's visit 2018.  Starmer is following his intution  to set an independent course for Brtian's foreign policy. It makes sense as the US is using common sense in coming back to basics, to getting its own hemisphere policies right. How could there be a situation like that in Venezuela and Mexico as with the drug cartels operating as states within states- what would Teddy Roosevelt say about this? So we now have the Monroe Doctrine, the return of the Panama Canal, the restructuring of the oil industry in Venezuela, and other action. This also means Canada and UK, India, European Union can pursue policies that are common sense. It means for Britain a new openness with China after 8 years inward looking with Austerity, Brexit and Covid. For a smaller economy it makes sense for Britain to have agreements on trade as it signed with India, and now with China. Carney, Starmer and soon Merz will have worked out relations with China on trade and exchanges. For Europe and the US over concentration of making goods in China can be corrected while still engaging with China. For the EU the visits Germany's Merz made to the kite festival an India and Leyen/Costa of the EU following up with trade agreements are all part of common sense to not just reduce over concentration in China, but also to build a new partnership with India to form a 2 billion people market. All of which happened suddenly as European nations realized how to work out new arrangements following the war with Russia over Ukraine and China's support for Russia, taking up the cues from DJT common sense action in its backyard. "I'm a pragmatist, a British pragmatist, applying common sense," the prime minister tells BBC on the plane and says he wants to "make Britain face outwards again."  ...

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The U.S. trade agreement with Mexico is for 16 years, to provide business with a stable rules environment to operate in. It includes a clause for review after 6 years. The content made in the U.S. is increased to 70% from 62.5%. This has to be made by workers earning at least $16  an hour. Aluminium and steel going into the cars has to come from the U.S. helping push U.S. steel plant capacity utilization to 80%. Labor collective bargaining is strengthened in Mexico through new provisions, a provision supported by new Mexican socialist president Obrador. Free trade in agricultural products is maintained. $4.7 billion was added in help to U.S. farmers as aid for the effects of China's tariff retaliation. New rules are set for textiles, chemicals, and steel intensive products that set requirements to qualify for tariff free import into the U.S. This is intended to help bring more jobs and investment in these industries in the U.S.     ...

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The $1.777 billion Anti Weaponization Fund (money for IRS activities against DJT in a settlement fund) was a bad idea says the WSJ and Todd Blanche AG was right to say, "its dead period." With the major challenges facing the president and the country -the least needed distraction. Some of these are happening daily, the challenges to meet oil needs disrupted by actions of nations in the Middle East, the challenges in setting up fairness, transparency, and level playing field in world trade proposed by Lighthizer and Jamieson shown on these Lyrarc pages to bring back American jobs and higher incomes, the infrastructure challenges still only beginning to be addressed in 2026,  rebuilding the American Navy, bringing prosperity to rural America, taking down, the drug cartels and cutting down the loss of lives to fentanyl to a tiny fraction of what was tolerated, restoring reading comprehension and literacy to America K-12 with a knowledge of American history the way Lincoln, the founders and millions of immigrants from Europe experienced it form 1860 to 1960. ...

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Ontario ad on tariffs uses Reagan's word out of context- does not say Reagan speech was to impose tariffs on Japan till problems get fixed. Problems that had arisen in the 1980's because of Japan's use of unfair trade practices. This is the issue of Canada, Mexico, China and other nations that use unfair trade practices that then hurt American workers. Reagan was saying he understood that Senators Smoot and Hawley got things wrong when they imposed tariffs in the 1930's, that he was doing this in a very different situation the use by Japan of blatantly unfair trading practices. This is the case with Canada, China, Mexico and other nations today, that have acted as if they know nothing about these unfair trade practices. Healthy world trade requires every nation to follow the rules of fair trade practices. Canada is saying that we will shame you as being against world trade so we can keep violating fair trade practices. China is saying we will act as the guardian of world trade and shame you in this way so we can keep violating fair trade practices. ...

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By June 7 US stocks were up 11.5% in the first half of 2026, showing a resilient stock market whatever economists say about tariffs and other policies. There is a lot of misinformation on the changes in trade policy. Sure the deficits over $1 trillion had become so excessive to be a burden for the US ( this is not even to address the 20:5:2  the 20 trillion transfer in US wealth to foreign countries, 5 million jobs lost and the 2% low growth since 2000 that USTR Lighthizer and Jamieson point out in Foreign Affairs magazine in 2026).  Greg Ip comments on this in today's WSJ that betting against DJT trade and economic policy is not working. Here we have another flashback to Brexit and why a similar situation of misinformation had the opposite result. The value of the pound dropped from $1.55 to $1.35 to the US dollar in June 2016 the day Brexit referendum was won by Reform UK and the Conservatives. Today it is $1.33 in June 2026. Here is some history of Britain's tussle with the European Union. When did it start? In 1961 Britain applied to join. The French never too eager to have the British inside rejected in 1967 under nationalist De Gaulle. It took 12 years  not till 1973 did Britain get in with Denmark and both kept their currencies. As soon as Britishers complained about the bureaucracy in European Union Brussels headquarters conservatives like Boris Johnson drove this to a high pitch. He even said only way it would affect Britain was in the price of a Mars chocolate bar. Well in 2026 it is much more than that. Labour's Wes Streeting calls it a disastrous step for the UK economy to isolate it from Europe.  As usual the French don't care and the Germans showed little interest, so Britain was left to its own devices not being careful would mean bearing the costs. Manchester's mayor Burnham in Labour says he grasps this but there are other priorities that are pressing and shelves this for another time. It took 12 years to get UK into the European Union- it took just a few years under shortsighted Cameron, May and Johnson to get out when after austerity policies imposed by Cameron a lot of anger had shifted to Labourites and Blair's policies like the shortsighted policies of Bush and Obama, for the 20 trillion US lost to foreigners in their watch. Will it take another 12 years again for UK to get it right and get France and Germany to enthusiastically support Britain in the EU? ...

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The exemtions for laptops and iphones, semiconductors could be temporary. Following studies being done on these products decisions will be made on the tariffs.

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EU's Leyen and Costa at India's Republic Day Parade 2026 with PM Modi. European Union's Leyen said on her visit to India with Da Costa- "We are on the cusp of a historic trade Agreement indeed some call it the mother of all deals one that would create a market of two billion people." "A free trade agreement between the EU and India would be the largest deal of this kind anywhere in the world. I am well aware it will not be easy. But I also know that timing and determination counts, and that this partnership comes at the right moment for both of us." Leyen concluded that this was a moment that seemed so opportunity filled for both regions. "In troubled times great opportunities come. And I believe 2025 is a historic window of opportunity to build an indivisible partnership between Europe and India. Our interests align. Our commitment is iron-clad. And if it can be done anywhere, it can be done here. Because as Romain Rolland – the French writer and great admirer of India said: “If there is one place on the face of earth where all the dreams of living men have found a home from the very earliest days when man began the dream of existence, it is India.”  "And today we are one step closer to making our common dream a reality. Thank you and long live our friendship." ...

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Let sleeping tariffs lie is the approach of S. Korea, Taiwan, Japan, China, India, European Union, Germany, UK-  expect all trade agreements with the US to remain in place after Supreme Court decision as no country wants to go through the intensely difficult process of renegotiating on tariffs. It is also the case that DJT can replace these same tariffs using other tools and different legislation passed by Congress to stop unfair trading practices by other nations. The president is also appealing to the public, some of the tariffs are about fentanyl flows into the US, the unfair trade practices and subsidies were a problem for the Biden administration and rebuilding manufacturing was the goal of both DJT and Biden, and will be for future administrations.  When the media NYT, Washington Post respond they are following the editorial line taken that opposes the DJT administration on all issues, when WSJ respond it takes the textbook approach of economists and finance people that free markets are best without considering the real life issues. This is why the president said at his press conference after the Supreme Court decision that 22 Nobel Prize economists had said the economy could not be turned around for growth and low inflation in 1 year, and were proved wrong after the experience of 2025 with low inflation at 2.8%, low unemployment 4.3%, and growth of 2.2% in real GDP (with strong growth in quarters 2&3 of 3.8% and 4.4%). Expect all tariffs to be in place under other legislation to be in place in coming months. ...

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The world today is in a much better position to complete the transition to zero dependence on the volatile Middle East for oil. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US   2. China  3. India  4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (India through waivers for Russian sources). European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources. US is self sufficient in oil and gas and exports oil to the UK, India, Germany and the European Union. Canada is self sufficient. Germany gets only 6% of its oil from the Middle East, the UK 12%, Spain 13% and Italy 14%. The Iran war is likely to shift more of the needs of UK, Spain and Italy to other more stable sources including oil from the US and Venezuela managed by the US, and other sources. This means that US policymakers can act in the best interests of all the nations of the world for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles. Germany is moving rapidly to renewable energy and this could bring its dependence on the Middle East to zero. India will meet its needs from Russia for the time being till it also shifts to oil from US+ Venezuela. India get 55% of its oil from the Middle East or about 2.7 million b/d. Russia was an important source of oil for India till the US trade agreement called for it to shift- a 30 day waiver and extension means India can get this oil from Russia without sanctions for the duration of the war. Reducing European demand and Indian demand frees up oil for Japan and South Korea on the world market the other 2 countries dependent on Middle East oil- Japan importing 95% of its oil consumption with imports of 2.5 million b/d and South Korea importing about 2 million b/d or 70% of its consumption. This means Japan and South Korea need a new strategy as they are overexposed to one source just as Germany was and learned a difficult lesson to diversify its sources. Japan has learned to reduce consumption for the same level of GDP and some of this can be through conservation, also tried in Germany in the last 4 years. During the 4 years. of Ukraine war Germany had to find ways to diversify sources Japan and South Korea will need rapidly to do the same in the Iran War. This means that only Japan and South Korea because of their lack of policy direction and vigilance have allowed this overdependence on the Gulf region,  (even as Germany diversified its sources, DJT and Israel were firm on nuclear weapons policy) they failed to see signs that they should diversify. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US 2. China 3. India 4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (Indi through waivers for Russian sources), European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources.    ...

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President Trump's willingness to use U.S. economic strength through tariffs, sanctions and other methods comes from the view that in the decade of the 1990s and 2000s U.S. worker and the U.S. was suckered by others. In this situation it was seen as acceptable to use U.S. tariffs and economic pressure to fix a global trading system and a China trade surplus with the U.S. exceeding $300 billion a year. Mr. Lighthizer it should be remembered, now the top trade negotiator with China was also the trade negotiator with Japan when it enjoyed a similar trade surplus with the U.S. during the Reagan administration. Economic pressure did not have to be ratcheted up to this level with Japan at the time. Japan was an ally at the time in the Cold War, Today China is seen as both a global competitor in world affairs and a technological competitor. Unlike the situation with Japan many Republican and Democratic administrations had failed to tackle the growing trade imbalance with China till it had become unsustainable. The views of Mr. Trump on trade were views articulated by Mr. Lighthizer for the last ten years resulting in a shift in opinion on trade in the U.S. by 2016 where a majority of people in the U.S. felt that globalization and world trade was working against American workers and industry. Mr. Trump as a Republican was both responding to the failure of others to tackle trade issues hurting the U.S. worker and business, as well as rallying support from workers, farmers and business to his party.   ...

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  It appears from the timing and stature of Marco Rubio's visit to New Delhi, and Jaishankar's response that the US and India have both learned a lot on how to setup a vigorous relationship as business partners and as global powers, acting with maturity and patience. Rubio's very presence in New Delhi at a crucial moment in May, the fact that after the US president Marco Rubio is a popular and respected leader in the US. After talks with Marco Rubio, US Foreign Minister, India's Foreign Minister Jaishankar says he had a close relationship with Rubio. Rubio says the first person he saw after taking office onthe same day he first visited the State Department was Jaishankar, calling Jaishankar one of the best and most knowledgeable India has to offer. Jaishankar sees growing convergence in India's position with that of the US in West Asia for open maritime navigation, international law, and the importance of strategic trust partnerships and resilient supply chains to de-risk the global economy. Gone are the days when India caught up in a vague "non-alignment" movement that the Europeans are now practicing by distancing from the US, India accepts a robust US-India partnership in the interest of all countries.  Jaishankar put it this way to support the US-   “One, that we advocate dialogue and diplomacy to address conflicts. Two, we support safe and unimpeded maritime commerce. Three, we demand scrupulous respect for international law. Fourth, we are against the weaponisation of market shares and resources. And five, we believe in the value of trusted partnerships and resilient supply chains to de-risk the global economy. Rubio met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday.  An interim agreement on trade is being prepared so that a final agreement on trade and investment can be signed. On energy India is keen on getting energy supplies from the US, - “We spent some time today discussing energy issues, and again, you’re all aware that our government’s fundamental responsibility is to address the needs of 1.4 billion people. Ensuring the accessibility and affordability of energy for them is our prime objective. Secretary and I therefore welcome the expansion in our energy trade in recent months. Diversified supplies are at the heart of energy security for India." ...

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Societe General's Jerome Kerviel worked at a Delta trading desk in the investment banking operation. Kweku Adaboli, 31, a UBS trader, worked at a Delta One trading desk specialized in exchange-traded funds and other securities positions. He is charged with two counts of false accounting and one count of fraud. Delta is a term in the banking industry for how a bank can customize a security for a client, and following this closely replicate another transaction that acts to mitigate the risk. The first transaction is a "derivative" trade, which is basically a bet on the direction of a group of stocks or other securities. Jerome Kerviel was accused of trying to hide $7.2 billion in losses and was sentenced to three years in prison. The Delta One trading desks can generate $1 billion in annual revenue for banks and are used by Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley U.S. At the same time risk is increasing with unpredictability and higher volatility in the financial markets in 2011. Another feature of the trader problems at UBS and Societe Generale is the relative youth and lack of experience of the traders, and that risk management systems allow traders with insignificant experience to make such large transactions. Other questions about how much risk a bank should be allowed to take, and about ring fencing the investment banking units of each bank, are relevant. Swiss banking regulators were working to ringfence the investment banking units of UBS and other Swiss banks after earlier problems at Swiss banks in the global financial crisis of 2008. Under the proposed regulation by Swiss regulators UBS investment banking unit would be headquartered in another country and hold its own capital, and be subject to local regulators. ...

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There are similarities in the Republican and Democratic party platforms in 2016. One area of agreement is in the reinstatement of Glass Steagall Act. That legislation made in the Depression period to separate commercial banking from investment banking was changed  when president Clinton made changes in a deal with Senators Phil Gramm and Jim Leach in 1999. The too big to fail problems of banks and the problems of investment banks during the 2008 financial crisis are attributed to the lack of Glass Steagall protections for financial stability and safety. The result is that in the post 2016 environment banks can expect a tougher regulatory environment. Another are is in trade where both parties are expected to take tougher positions to protect U.S. interests. The Republican platform calls for "better negotiated trade agreemets that put America first."

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China is in isolation and in a freeze in ways that are unprecedented, that have never happened before. It has depressed world trade, disrupted supply chains of world trade, forced companies to restrict their employees movement, or bring them back home. Apple with 10,000 employees has closed operations and offices in China till Feb. 9. This is happening for many foreign companies in China as they deal with something they have never encountered before.  There is slowing down in demand fro crude oil as the lockdown affects the economy of China and world trade, Oil prices dropped 16% since the virus was detected. When the Sars virus happened in 2003 the Chinese economy was sixth in size in the world, now it is the second largest. At that time 7 million Chinese travelled abroad, today it is about 150 million, affecting international tourism. First quarter growth in China is now forecast by economists surveyed by WSJ at 4.9%, the lowest in decades. ...

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President Xi Jinping of China faces domestic criticism about his handling of the critical trading relationship with the U.S. that has given China access to technology and the U.S. market in its development drive. The trade truce with the U.S. reached following a meeting of Xi and Trump at the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires, was presented in Chinese media as a positive step withut mention that Mr. Trump has set a 90 deadline for the talks and appointed a experienced trade negotiator, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, to head negotiations. Also agreed is an effort to focus the talks on the 142 contentious issues the U.S. has put forward.

Experts at the Chinese University of Hong Kong say Mr. Jinping will need to show results to stay on beyond the customary two terms as president because for China the  trading relationship with the U.S. is essential to grow its economy with access to the U.S. market.

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Germany imports hardly 6% of it's oil from the Middle East compared to 13% for the European Union. This makes it possible for Germany to take its own position on Iran independent of oil supply considerations.  More important for Germany is Iran's support for Russia in the Ukraine war, a sore point for Germany and the EU considering the enormous damage done by Iranian drones in Ukraine including civilian targets. Merz says" the threat posed by this regime stretches far beyond the region. It must be shut down."  A breakdown of German imports of oil shows mostly all from outside the Middle East, after the shift away from Russia Germany has made a decision to stay away from the volatile Middle East for supplies. (Germany had a deal with Qatar for LNG but the EU has already done a deal with the US for LNG and Germany has followed the EU with its own trade deal to import LNG from the US.) Norway, 2.5 million tons, United States, 12.4 million tons Libya, 10.4 million tons, Kazakhstan 10.3 million tons The UK, 8.7 million tons, Guyana, 4.2 million tons ...

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The Lewinsky scandal broke out in January 1998. Bill Clinton admitted "an imprpper relationship" in August 1998. The vote to impeach Clinton was in December 1998. The acquittal took place in Jan-Feb 1999 with the lack of a two thirds majority of 67 votes in the Senate. The damage is not just in reputations. It is in distraction sufficient to lead to flawed legislation that lacked key provisions for the China US Relations Act of 2000 that was taken up by the Senate in May 2000. Could such a major step be taken in the last year of a lame duck administration? Republicans returned to the White House in December of 2000 with George Bush. There were no provisions in the China Relations Act for abuse of the status after joining WTO through unfair trad practices. The result is millions of jobs lost and the entire manufacturing base of the US and Europe shipped to China by 2019. Under Xi Jinping China returned to an adversarial relationship with the US on the issues of Hong Kong and Taiwan. It could have done serious damage to the 1.4 billion people of India as the gap between China and India opened up dangerous security implications for South Asia, a time when governance model of the Nehru era had failed by 2014 leading to fragmentation of the kind that happened in China when Japan had surged ahead in the 1920's and 1930's leading to the devastating war and Japanese invasion of China in the 1930's by provoked incidents. It shows the grave consequences of poor governance including the periods under Bush and Obama that led to decisions to get into wars in remote mountainous and desert regions. A series of such events can as shown by Joel Mokyr of Northwestern University, that can lead to permanent decline for regions and nations. Under both Biden and DJT an effort is underway to respond to these challenges. ...