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Where do you place a winner of the Democratic primary in Maine, Graham Plattner, an oyster farmer who dropped out of college at George Washington University, served briefly in the Middle East wars of Bush and Obama, and had PTSD. Is he working class, middle working class or is he from a downwardly mobile professional class considering he has parents who are well educated and father a prominent lawyer in Maine? Plattner easily defeated a 3 term governor of Maine with his average working class demeanor and language. He is for universal health care, (Medicare for All) universal child care, affordable housing, affordable college. Politics in the US has been moving away from the simple divisions before 1950 created by the Industrial Revolution- the workers in factories and the owners of capital allied with the professional middle class. The few owners of capital mostly college educated allied with people from the non college educated workers in factories who are conservative in their values and beliefs and on the other side the college educated professional middle class now downwardly mobile because of the many recessions and high unemployment from frequent financial crises, with college costing $80,000 a year putting them in deep debt. There is today in the WSJ a story of a professional worker who at $194,000 a year salary is not able to payoff $15000 debt which owners of capital have set at 26% interest and is in downward spiral. Some of this comes from large college and other debt. There is says WSJ Analysis $1.25 trillion in credit card debt alone with highest delinquency rates in decades in 2026. Cost of living has only made things worse and some of this happened as Biden poured money into the economy to help people hurt by the pandemic, yet with some short run consequences with demand strong businesses including hotels, restaurants and grocery stores, auto dealers, jacking up their prices by over 20% in 1 year and Biden failing to respond, getting overwhelmed by open borders migrants under Mayorkas and Harris (also hit by a sudden Venezuelan migrant influx). This is the America one has today- a confusing mix. This in reality means Democrats may take issue with Democrats, Republicans take issue with Republicans, and Democrats join with Republicans on issue by issue basis. It might actually be rational than irrational. On cultural issues if the country has gone over its head and moved too fast on some issues that are not for the general public good, people of different backgrounds can come together to get the best path. On economic issues things are never so straightforward, there are unpredictable consequences and the rules of economics are really not so straightforward either.  Providing relief can mean the government shouldering the burden as during the pandemic which it should, yet with caution as businesses can use the excess demand to raise prices and one is back to square one with everybody worse off as happened with Biden. Migrant flows and fears of insecurity in public spaces can lead to a severe public "discomfort that can waylay the best intentions of a Harris or Biden, leading to public "backlash." In fact the title of a recent book is "Whiplash." Current books include Floridan Marco Rubio's "Decade's of Decadence- How our Spoiled Elites Blew America's Inheritance of Liberty, Security and Prosperity." Rubio means it. Its authentic because as Rubio says repeatedly, his parents could make a living in the 1960's working in a factory with decent wages, low cost of living and low cost of college, the arithmetic between salaries and what you needed for decent home in suburbs and sending children to good public schools, then to college, all adding up. The result is that Rubio could go to college and serve in the Florida legislature. Rubio says in 2026, after the elites under Bush and Obama and faulty economic theory shipped all of our factories to China, that the story of his parents and his education would simply be impossible. This is what he told people in India on his first visit last week. His parents were Cuban immigrants, yet he identifies with Spain and with western civilization, a devout Roman Catholic. Rubio is a Republican, and is in large contrast with Alejandro Mayorkas, also from Cuba, and Biden's Head of Homeland Security. This is the mix of people and representatives in Congress,  business people, small business owners, professionals, that we have today in 2026 in the US. Plattner and Rubio, one a Democrat and one a Republican- both have something in common. Plattner also has general disdain for "the corporate interests, the billionaires, the Washington DC elites, and the establishment politicians."  The winds are blowing in the direction of getting things right- remembering that Eisenhower continued the work of the Kennedy and LBJ administrations (Eisenhower built the Interstate Highway System for instance, and LBJ gave America Social Security and Medicare). Before that Franklin Roosevelt a Democrat built on the work of his uncle Republican Theodore Roosevelt (TR gave America the idea of good governance and built the US Navy, FDR fought the Depression and stabilized a faltering economy after mistakes made by Republican Herbert Hoover could have happened even if Hoover was a Democrat. FDR was himself from a wealthy New York family and when he first met fellow New Yorker Frances Perkins before his struggle with polio, a haughty New York gentleman. That was before Frances Perkins as FDR's Labor Secretary joined forces with Roosevelt to give New York a modernized administration governance structure by 1940 that was applied to all 51 states after 1950. It allied labor with capital with fairness for all, and was the first such modern structure of this size the world had ever seen, which was the fundamental strength of the United States of America. It was imitated in Asia, first in the Shanghai region then China, and first in the Ahmedabad region and now India. The US is faced with the challenge of recreating and rebuilding this today, as first China, then India remind America of its roots which they have followed in their own style and culture.  First good governance, then good institutional structures, alligning labor and capital with fairness for all, strong affordable + accessible educational and healthcare systems, and investments of capital and labor for infrastructure + industrial development. ...

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Iran's oil production filling up existing storage leading to oil well shutoffs May 2026. Tankers near oil fields are used as storage as Iran faces prospect of filled up storage tanks and ships at sea at some point in the next few weeks. It has slow throttled production, increased storage, yet with no oil getting out of Hormuz straits Iran will at some point in the next couple of weeks have to shutdown some of the oil wells. The oil tanks cannot be monitored for storage level and their is existing storage in refineries and other places making it difficult to say precisely when but it could be in the next couple of weeks. This plays a part in Iran's thinking looking for ways to settle the conflict. US insists on getting all nuclear material out of Iran as an indispensable condition and the full and entire reason for the war not anything against the Iranian people. It is a basic idea- non-proliferation on nuclear weapons. Why in the Middle East- the answer is that for 5 decades there are wars in the Middle East, many small nations created by the British and the French who take no responsibility today, and the prospect of spread is real, sectarian conflicts for centuries, and a situation worse than in the Balkans where World War I started. The region extends from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan, each nation destroyed by 5 decades of war including many Americans, Russians Europeans dead.  Costs of War Project at Brown University estimates are that 4.5 to 4.7 million people died in these wars. The US is not a colonial power like the British and the French, the Dutch. It seeks no oil as it is self sufficient, and it seeks no strife or involvement in the centuries old saga of the sectarian religious conflicts in the Middle East, having settled its own between Catholics and Protestants in the 17th century so that the Industrial Revolution and Scientific Revolutions could take place to create the Modern World of science, medicine, and industry we know today. Many of the nations of the Middle East seem averse to whole heartedly embracing the European contributions in this achievement as China, India, and America have done, in the process changing how their people think and live, and strive daily to further these achievements. ...

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The Nixon Mao meeting of 1972 now seems a very long time ago. Little is mentioned here in this WSJ report on what was happening inside China in 1972. The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution had severely divided the Communist Party. This was followed by the Lin Piao episode in which the defense minister clashed with Mao leading to a complete loss of confidence in the stability of the leadership. China sought the meeting and Chou-en-lai, premier and Mao's minister for foreign relations, was eager to seek a new relationship with the US. The period 1960-1970 had pushed China back 10-20 years in its effort to develop an industrial economy.  The event is presented as one in which the two countries were meeting at the same level after the Korean War, which was not the case. This report says it was the $3 trillion in US and foreign investment that helped an economy the size of India in 1972 to emerge into what it is today, much larger than India. This report goes on to cite Foreign Affairs and other authors who write that Mr. Kissinger and Mr Nixon saw this as a self-promotional event in contrast to the situation Chou-en-lai, the Chinese premier faced during that difficult time in China's history. ...

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China after American and European offshoring of supply chain and manufacturing over three decades is going through a rapid reversal. People to people contacts are also falling off a precipice as it were, showing how badly structured efforts by business focused on profit and not people to people fail miserably, hurting the long term prospect of peaceful cooperation. Foreign Investment that was $100 billion in the first quarter of 2022 is now $20 billion. Tourism down by about 80%. At Zhangjiajie National Park goes from half a million foreign tourists to 50,000 last year. It is typical of this staggering change.  People are not going from America and Europe to China unless they have to. It shows the complete failure of a purely business relationship such as offshoring manufacturing when it hurts workers and families in America and Europe, who turn against it leading to a free fall in relations. American and European business and the governments allied with it failed in this sense to build a world of better interpersonal relations between Asia and the western world. China's experience with industrialization and modernization begun in 1990 is now a cautionary tale for other regions such as India and the Middle East that are planning their own modernization. Much of it happened less from a people to people relationship than from an effort by US business to seize the opening of China after Mao's revolution to offshore American manufacturing as if realizing a new opportunity without understanding its long term consequences for the American people. European business followed American business in this offshoring. It damaged the basic structure of the American and EU peoples based on locally based supply chains and manufacturing at home needed for strong healthy communities, leading to this situation today. The rancor and deeply seated discontent all across America and Europe from communities losing factories and the jobs and wealth coming from it from offshoring by business interests has created this situation.  ...

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This Journal editorial which advises patience, comes on the day after the U.S. Senate voted 79-19 to move forward with a bill on sanctions against China for undervaluation of the yuan. The editorial says the Chinese currency has come down 30% since 2005, and inflation in China is reducing the advantage China gains by keeping its currency valuation low. Over time the editorial suggests China will see a decline in trade surpluses similiar to the experience with Japan, and emphasizes the importance of the two leading trading nations U.S. and Britain not repeating the experience of the 1930's with the Smoot-Hawley retaliatory tariffs legislation. The Journal quotes American economic historian Charles Kindleberger: "When every country turned to protect its national private interest, the world public interest went down the drain, and with it the private interests of all."

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How the travel limits imposed by coronavirus have reduced automobile and airline travel leading to drastic reduction in polluting gases in the atmosphere. In New York about a 50% reduction in carbon monoxide. Both China, Northern Italy show large reductions in nitrogen dioxide in the atmosphere. This gas is related to automobiles and industrial activity. Pictures taken from satellites show the map of the areas around big cities in China- Shanghai and Beijing- mostly clear compared to before the coronavirus hit the country.

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The mysterious activities and losses of a South Korean/Japanese venture capital company Softbank which has been part of the massive misallocation of capital away from infrastructure and health care services during the decades before the pandemic. It has emerged recently as the mystery investor in options on tech shares that led to shares losses of 7 billion pounds for Softbank.

It lost half of its value in an earlier dotcom crash. A few investments in China during the early period of its development based on gut feel of the founder, including Alibaba an e-commerce company based on Amazon's success in the U.S. and other investments in China, is the basis of its business model. This model puts huge amounts of U.S. and foreign capital with estimated pool of capital at $100 billion into ventures that set the wrong priorities for investment- leading to misallocation of capital at this time of the pandemic. 

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It depends- only if you look at it in actual millions of people. In percent of people Voice of America and this WSJ report show that US obesity rate is much higher with 22 states above 35% and the rate overall at about 25%, compared to China's at about 14%. The fact that this was reported in this way is happening as this issue is taken far too casually in the US, when the quality of life is largely dependent on health. And such high levels of obesity in the US, catastrophic levels in some southern and midwestern states, means one is not doing things right and heading for a poorer quality of life. This report in the WSJ cites estimates of obesity in China of as high as 200 million and likely to grow by another 100 million by 2034, about 14% of the population being obese today and obesity increasing to about 20%. In China the demand for weight loss drugs is growing. The government has a program to reduce the intake of salt, sugar and oil and increase health foods in the diet. Meat in the diet has tripled and there is a need for more health conscious attitudes in China, even more so and urgently in the US. Both the US and China are too auto centric in their culture, particularly the US where public transportation has not been given high priority leading to a lack of enough exercise getting to work. ...

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Since the last landing of a man on the moon in 1972, not much has happened. China recently made 3 lunar landings and Israel failed in its recent Beersheba module effort. India is trying a second time with Chandrayan 2 to make the soft landing in the last critical 15 minutes on the lunar surface without any problems.    The Indian space program has the potential to build up the global research and knowledge about our planet.  Factors unique to India's space program are its development of its own rockets, similar to China's. The multipurpose satellite system services a number of users- telecommunications, TV broadcasting, meteorology, disaster warning, land and water management, ocean studies, drought and flood forecasting. The fleet of satellites IRS (Indian Remote Sensing Satllite Systems) will be used for teleducation, telemedicine, and other new uses. The NAViC navigation Constellation System acts as India's own GPS reducing the need to rely on U.S. based GPS. Other aspects of India' space program are the effort to explore new planets with the Mars Orbiter Mission MARS , with a module reaching Martian orbit in 2014. ...

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Extraordinary pictures taken by a photographer from Edinburgh who left Britain for Singapore and Far East in 1862 at the age of 25 years. He had worked as an apprentice with an optical manufacturer and learned photography. What is astounding is that this was the time when Japan was opening up to the ideas and technology from Europe with the Meiji restoration around 1871, China in transition under the Manchu dynasty which was to collapse in 1912 ending the monarchy. A major rebellion happened with the Taiping rebellion in southern China in 1854 that lasted till 1862. The Taiping rebellion was against the Manchu dynasty as a foreign dynasty imposed on Han people in China, and the result of famines, difficult conditions for peasants, opium addiction, poor economic prospects for a large population. Mao considered the Taiping rebellion as an unfinished revolution which the Communists continued this time against other foreign rulers the Japanese and European colonies in China,  and the Nationalist rule of Chinag-kai-Shek with corruption and wide disparities of incomes. John Thomson took pictures of China in the 1870's, now in the Wellcome collection and displayed in an exhibition at Heriot Watt University in Britain. Women and children in Guangdong, Canton and Beijing are shown in these pictures of China. Between 1872 and 1942 is a period of only 70 years with tumultuous events and huge changes in China. By 1944-1949 Communists controlled vast parts of China with Mao's forming of the People's Republic of China for the Chinese people, free of foreign influence, corruption, and opium trade of the British. And again 40 years later by 1989 China using a market economy to change China into a modern nation as advanced as Japan, Europe and America. For India the new People's Republic of China under Mao also brought the PLA army to the borders of India. In 1950 China invaded Tibet at Chamdo, and in 1951 annexed the country under a 15 Point Agreement making it a region of China. With that invasion India and China face each other for the first time in the Himalayas across a border stretching east to west for thousands of miles. A war in 1962 was followed by incursions across the border in 2020 in the Ladakh region. Both sides build infrastructure on either side of the Line of Control that stretches for 3500 kilometres. Most of the Indian people remain ignorant of the changes happening in China from the Manchus to the Communists. Most Chinese have little knowledge of the changes happening in India from British period to the post independence period under Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi , and further to the changes for modernization happening under Mr. Modi. Large populations of over 1 billion people facing each other but knowing little about each other in one of the strange situations in the world, and armies building infrastructure on either side of the line of control. ...

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World Bank forecasts show China's GDP growth rate in 2015 to be 7.9%, exceeding investment growth of 7%. In 2009, the situation was the opposite, with the investment growth of 18% driving an 8.9% growth rate. The World Bank expects China's growth rate to drop to about 7% between 2016 and 2020. It was 9.6% from 1995-2009. What this implies is China is shifting away from commodity intensity and wasteful use of energy, capital, and other resources. This means many of the existing forecasts based on continued commodity intensity will have to be revised drastically downward. Growth could be down to 6% annually by 2020, says Peaple, and half of the expected commodity demand would disappear in some forecasts. John Makin in an interview with Wessel of the WSJ, Dec. 30, 2010, says there is a 40% probability China will not make a soft landing in 2011-2012 from the excessive bank lending and inflation that is underway in China. This would mean slower growth much earlier than the World Bank forecasts....

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What were the stories in the Economist magazine that were the most read stories of 2019? Not on president Trump. On Malaysia, China under Jinping, and exodus from San Francisco and Silicon Valley. The most read article was on the newly elected president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro. The mismanagement of the economy particularly extravagant state spending on the Olympics and soccer stadiums for the World Cup at the expense of basic sanitation services, bus and transport services, health services, led to the result of a majority of Brazilians rejecting the Workers Party and its leader former president Lula. Unfortunately most of the media including the Economist did not draw attention to this gap. During a period in which income from mining with export of iron ore, and soyabeans to China, enabled Brazil to live beyond its means, there was no effort to draw attention to glaring gaps in development of public services such as sanitation, bus services and transport, lack of building infrastructure other than to support mining. Glaring gaps in education and health services made the situation worse. The second most read piece in the Economist  was on March 10th- Malaysia's PM is about to steal an election. Here the Economist magazine joined the Wall Street Journal which originally broke the story on the 1MDB fund and irregularities in Malaysia where a development fund was misused by the government. Najib actually lost that election and the WSJ covered the story of the developments that followed in which Malaysia's new governemnt led by a returning former prime minister in his nineties Mahathir Mohammed, ousted his own protege Mr. Najib.  The third most read piece in the Economist magazine was - How the West got China Wrong.  Unfortunately the Economist magazine and most of the media covered China in the two decade long boom years without covering the other emerging story as well in which Mr. Lighthizer (now president Trump's top trade adviser) and others questioned the huge unsustainable trade surpluses in U.S. trade with China. With the economy facing huge downside risks and rising trade tensions with the U.S. Chinese president Jinping's move to remove the limit on terms in office in the Constitution was considered a shift from the notion that China was likely to turn into a democracy. Mr. Jinping had already completed his first term in office and the anti-corruption campaign, managing the economic boom for a soft landing, was carried out with the central leadership of the party, after the destabilization evident in the early part of Xi Jinping's first term. Much of China's path was predictable and rational behaviour in its national interest, what was not clearly defined or defended was the way the U.S. could sustain the trade deficits that had reached a billion dollars a day. Leading to Mr. Trump seizing on this as an election issue to form a bloc of voters separate from the two main parties, the Republicans and the Democrats. The fifth most read piece was on Oct 11, 2018- the next recession. It pointed out that with low interest rates central banks in the U.S. and Europe and America could not cope effectively with a recession. The sixth most read piece was on June 29, 2018- Bullshit jobs and the yoke of managerial feudalism. It cited Prof. David Graeber of the London School of Economics, who wrote a short essay that went viral on the prevalence of work that had no social or economic reason to exist, work he called "bullshit jobs". Graeber said people want to feel they are transforming the world around them in a way that is leading to a positive difference. No. 7, 8, 9, were on Bitcoin, Netflix and programming language Python. No. 10 most read was on Aug. 30, 2018- Why startups are leaving Silicon Valley. It showed that in 2017 more people left the county of San Francisco than entered. The main reason the cost of living was burdensome and out of control. As Amazon shifts attention to India and Brazil, and Apple pulls back from India, social media companies coming under fire for disinformation, this period of Tech is making way for a shift in a new direction. A direction that focuses on people's lives, wages, spending on much needed infrastructure and services. ...

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The countries of Central and Eastern Europe are building closer relations with Taiwan. Central European and Eastern European countries trade less with China and see close relations with the US as essential for their security. This includes Poland, Slovakia, Lithuania, Czech Republic. Taiwan is increasing investments in Eastern Europe after investments by China failed to materialize in the last decade. Taiwan foreign minister is now on a visit to Slovakia and the Czech republic. For many Eastern Europeans the dominance of China brings back memories of the dominance of Soviet Union and the Cold War.  Taiwan says it is looking to deepen ties in the industrial, scientific and green energy fields with the region. Eastern Europe's perception of China has changed in the last three years as shared values of rule of law, democracy, and human rights with the rest of the world and the US are seen as important for the region.  Western Europe with France and Germany is also gradually moving away from its close dependence on trade with China. The French Senate is leading an effort to build closer ties with India by hosting Ambition India 2021 starting on October 29. Germany under Scholz of SPD and Baerbock of the Greens is moving away from the Merkel CDU era of close dependence on China in trade. ...

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This WSJ report looks at the work of Alexei Miller as head of Gazprom which supplies Russian natural gas through the Nordstream pipeline to Europe. Mr. Miller is shown to have put too much reliance on the European market which is now shrinking with the European decision to cut dependence on Russian gas. compared to alternative markets in China Russia has invested too little in pipelines to other regions in Asia. He has also not invested in LNG which could be shipped to China and other countries leaving Russia too dependent on pipelines that run mostly to Europe such as Nordstream 1 and 2.  Russia was sending 160 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Europe and only 11 billion cubic metres to China in 2021. A major shift requires much new infrastructure. Miller also did not grasp how shale oil and gas would boom in the US. Mr. Miller started as a 39 year old economics PhD in 2001 when Putin made him head of Gazprom. Both had worked together in St Petersburg local government, and Miller was Deputy Energy Minister for 1 year, briefly head of a pipeline system to the Gulf of Finland. ...

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The European Union's trade relations with China, and the trade and industry relationship between Germany and China built during the Merkel years is a part of the overall trade setup of the Free World that is likely to be questioned by Habeck, Baerbock of the Greens and chancellor Scholz after Mr. Biden's launch of the IPEF economic alliance for Asia. During her period in office Merkel also built the German trade relationship with Russia leading to Germany being dependent on Russia for 51% of its oil and natural gas supplies. The German dependence on Russia for energy is now being reversed by the efforts of Economy Minister Habeck of the Greens party in the Scholz coalition. The supply chain renewal and redesign by president Biden is likely to be followed by Germany and France and the EU. With it more investments will be shifted back to the US and the EU and allies in Asia such as India that offer a large pool of well trained workers similar to China's. In this sense the IPEF arrangement will be repeated in European Union's new relationships with Asia under the Greens SPD German coalition's leadership. ...

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China chooses periodic blockades or air-sea coordinated exercizes around Taiwan's 12 mile waters as a strategy to respond to US Indo-Pacific strategy of keeping lanes of sea traffic and navigation on oceans open to all nations. This is seen as less risky than an outright invasion. Military exercises in August 2022 are seen as preparing for such a strategy.  The US is the destination for $541 billion and Europe $521 billion in products Made in China in 2021, which make China the manufacturing powerhouse in the world. Without the export of $1 trillion in Chinese products thousands of factories and millions of Chinese workers would remain idle. It is unbelievable that China is risking so much with its Taiwan policy with no idea of what the consequences would be years from now. It took China three decades after the gradual opening by 1990 and a willingness on the part of American and European governments and business to give up much of their own manufacturing leading to loss of jobs in communities across both America and Europe and much pain from this loss, for China to get to $1 trillion in exports. This situation may never come back as the supply chains shift and jobs return home and to countries that are becoming competitive in infrastructure and capabilities in Asia. Such competition between nations is not unknown as it was with Imperial Japan in the Pacific just 100 years back. The US maintains its position as keeping navigation on the oceans of the world open and rule of law, and it is on these foundations that China was able to get the strong manufacturing and exporting position it has now that no nation has enjoyed in history to this extent. Only the British come close in the nineteenth century. So much of China's progress in the twentieth century was a result of cooperation and support from America, from the first university Tsinghua in Beiijing, to the war against imperialist forces of Japan, to the rebuilding of China's manufacturing and technological competitiveness with American business cooperation. ...

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The Third Biennial Update Report at COP26 Glasgow shows where India stands on renewable energy, solar, forest cover enhancement, and improving carbon intensity in its climate change efforts so far.  For instance a 17 times increase in solar in the last 7 years to 45 gigawatts, with target of 450 gigawatts by 2030. In carbon intensity 24% improvement between 2005-2014. Scientist Bhatt presented the report for India's Environment Ministry saying India represented 17% of the world's population and historically 4% of world carbon emissions, today 5%. Improvements of carbon intensity per unit of GDP planned under Mod's plan for 2030 require 45% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030. This suggests the trajectory of China will be avoided where highly polluting parts of industries such as steel and cement were left unregulated and lacking strict supervision leading to rampant pollution in 2000-2021. Mr. Birol, head of the Renewables Energy Agency said on BBC's "Hard Talk" program recently that if you combine all of China's steel and cement factory carbon emissions, that alone would equal the total sum of carbon emissions of the whole European Union today. A quick look at a graph of global carbon emissions trajectories shows three fold increase of China's carbon emissions from about 4 billion tons to 12 billion tons between 2000-2021, the period and the explosion of carbon that is the one activity that singlehandedly created the crisis of climate change today. By comparison US remains at about 6 billion tons of emissions, and EU, US, Britain Japan show flat trajectories. Business, globalization interests, US and European financial interests, and local governments in China that financed this explosion in steel and cement ignored the implications of so much pollution in so short a time through unregulated activities- writing a chapter of failure with most of the world's people left to bear the results of such a failure.  It is this that India plans to correct with a 45% improvement in carbon intensity per unit of GDP by 2030, and nothing could be more important in the government's plan than this. New technologies will be key for this. Modi and India realize how vulnerable India is to floods, drought stricken areas, shortages of water, and climate extremes, and see these plans as critical for healthy growth that benefits all of India's people and regions, It is a long term vision like no other today and sets a new direction for all developing regions of Asia, Latin America and Africa. As India leads the way in new technologies and ambitious programs such as one solar, one world, one grid, these technologies will also break open new paths for the regions of the world that need this most from Brazil to Indonesia.  China too suffers from the impact of so much pollution. Even as early as 2010 reports showed the higher pollution had lowered life expectancy in northern region of China compared to its southern region. Yet the most polluting factories were not removed and only recently is the activity being conducted seriously leading to the shortages of fuel from so much overexpansion in the boom years, and making adjustments done abruptly today more difficult.   ...

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David Malpass is the choice of the Trump administration to head the World Bank. He has worked with Latin American countries at the State Department, was the Treasury official responsible for the World Bank in the Reagan administration, and worked on Argentine currency, China trade matters in the Trump administration.

Malpass negotiated a $13 billion replenishment for the World Bank in 2017, with U.S. share of $1.2 billion. This capped the bank's lending at $25 billion.

Last year the World Bank provided China with $60.5 billion in loans for 400 projects, which this WSJ editorial says is loans China does not need with its $3.07 trillion in foreign reserves. This editorial is critical of the current World Bank head Dr. Kim for taking a job with a World Bank partner the private equity fund GIP.

The World Bank has played a significant role in development for South Asia and China in the early years after World War II.

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The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

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Russian forces in Port Arthur (Dalian, Lushun) like the other European colonial powers in Tientsin took part in the joint operations of Japan, Britain, France, US, and Germany in the invasion of Peking in mid July 1901. Under the Soviet era China was an ally of the Soviet Union yet there was a strong sense of independent action that led to the breakdown of the relationship between Krushchev and Mao in the 1960's. This may be true also today as the European conflict in Ukraine may not be in China's interest of developing its economy and continuing on the path of modernity it adopted throughout the events of the 1930's to the 1990's to today. This report from that period shows the Russian army under Colonel Anisimov and General Stessel rescuing British admiral Seymour's force near Tientsin. The Russian forces under Russian Admiral Hildebrand played a leading role in the battle of the Taku forts that followed in late June 1901. The forces at Tientsin under Admiral Alekseev of about 8000 are mostly Russian. On 19 July 1901, Russia's General Linevich assumes control of the joint Japanese, Russian, British and French forces that conducted the campaign towards Peking.  The American version of the events in China in 1901 is given by Cornell University Prof. David Silbey in his 2010 book- The Boxer Rebellion, The Great Game in China. It shows the depressed condition of China at the time and the struggle to free China of the opium of British traders and conversions by Christian missionaries that undermined Chinese culture and society. The rebellion of 1901 is similar in China's history to the events of 1857 in India with the rebellion against British rule.    ...

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With so much coverage of other aspects of China,  to really understand China and Xi Jinping one has to understand the rural urban situation in China. Xi's long experience as a teenager in the cultural revolution of Mao was in rural areas, the 8 years he spent there till the age of 22, as this report by James Areddy with help of Yijun, Cheng and Qi aptly shows. It traces the shift and mass migration to cities starting with Deng's modernization drive in 1979. This shift of labor to city and town factories as the U.S. and Europe shifted factories and production to China is the story of our times. How it has both helped and hurt China and how it has become the dominant issue of our times, and a lesson for India in the middle of its own modernization and shift of labor to cities. It has helped China modernize with the shift during 1979 to 2016 and run into a road block with president Trump leading a movement in the U.S. of people most hurt by the outsourcing of factories and production to China. It was not meant to be this way. Yet the shift also led to ripping up the fabric of communities and towns with loss of factories across America over three decades. Because China is a large country the impact was huge decade after decade, leading to a backlash against lost jobs in the U.S. and in Europe.  Xi Jinping has romantic view of rural China as he spent 7 years in Shanxi province rural areas during the cultural revolution under Mao. During this period he toiled as part of farm labor alongside villagers which allowed him to get to know villagers and farmers in the countryside well, and formed his view of the world around him. As it is described in a description of the man in Chinese sources- "He arrived at the village as a slightly lost teenager and left as a 22 year old man determined to do something for the people."  China's system separated migrants from city dwellers not  giving same rights to better education, to schools and housing, and official documents separating the two, city dwellers and migrant populations from rural areas. As a result as China modernized and population shifted -shown here in excellent graphic charts over four decades- in 1979 from about 80% in rural areas and 20% in urban the shift goes to 50-50 by 2001. Today it is 40-60 with 60% in rural areas but a population of 40% suffering from severe inequalities and  low incomes. So that GDP per capita of $10,000 for China is deceiving. The real incomes in average disposable income is about $4300 in urban and $1700 in rural area, according to National Bureau of Statistics. High school education is hard enough to get in rural areas, medical care is very basic and the $1700 would hardly get a room in low income housing in a large town in China, says premier Li Keqiang. Keqiang did his masters thesis on urbanization and has studied this shift from his college days. Just as in Gandhi's India, Mao's China is the story of the villages, with 128,000 villages for 600 million people in Mr. Xi Jinping's anti-poverty drive. Hong Kong other issues have to be understood in the context of these concerns of China's leadership today- the sense that strong central leadership alone can keep the country together and bring a decent life to the people in the villages and in the countryside outside the cities.  Modernization of cities still set in the context of China's vast rural population and essential to its full uplift and progress. Xi has allocated $80 billion each year to bring roads, schools, medical facilities, and other amenities including electricity and modern heating. The idea now is to shift people back to the villages, find opportunities for jobs and livelihoods in farming, tourism with guesthouse facilities, and other occupations in the villages. The villages are being turned into attractive places to live one by one in this party drive and providing new enthusiasm and support for the party's efforts. India can learn from this experience in China. The western nations of the U.S. and Europe can no longer and will no longer undertake the wholesale shift of factories with loss of jobs to China or India to offer the prospect of bringing these countries to the kind of urbanization and overall prosperity of small nations like Japan and South Korea, which are a tiny fraction of the population of China and India+ Pakistan + Bangladesh. As a result China is changing strategy now with a return to some aspects of the informal economy in Chengdu with street peddlers and tiny retail, and return of migrants back to better built and improved villages in the countryside. A better life than in cities is possible this view says for people from these rural areas, if the rural areas are given modern facilities and construction and resources are allocated, job creation locally tackled. The villages can offer better air quality, better quality of life where villagers who earlier migrated to cities with ownership of land, when they are modernized with better roads and have better facilities for education, housing and healthcare, better amenities. The new approach is to strike a good balance for urbanization, by modernizing and investing in villages and small towns, so that cities can cope and overall life can be better than with mass migration and wholesale urbanization. It is also a balance that works well for the U.S. and Europe which can redirect manufacturing to their home regions as part of a better distributed and balanced supply chain than the one that was unwittingly built over the last three decades.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China's rapidly aging population is leading to a new problem of rapidly increasing rural suicides. With urbanization about half of the people over 60 have no adult children living with them and 10% live alone. With meagre savings there are more suicides in isolated communities. 

Over two decades the number of people over 65 has risen from 7% of the population to 12%. The one-child policy is only partly to blame. A rapid drop in births as seen in Latin America was also taking place in China with urbanization and modernization.

LyrArc Article Gist
China sees the situation in Hong Kong spiralling out of control after two months of protests and leading to a loss of China's sovereignty in Hong Kong. The Chinese official in charge of Hong Kong Affairs in the State Council, Zhang Xiaoming, met with the Hong Kong government representatives in Shenzen and made it clear offering a dire assessment and the most severe since China resumed sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997 from Britain. Zhang stated- "If the situation worsens further, and there is turmoil that the Hong Kong government is unable to control, the central government absolutely will not just watch without doing anything." He also stated that the central government had enough strength to end the unrest, that the Party center and military force if necessary is behind the Hong Kong government. Wang Zhmin, China's top official in Hong Kong gives a better view of how this is seen in the Party in Beijing. He even called it a "life and death war" comparing it to the "color revolutions" the democratic movements that unseated governments in Georgia, Ukraine and Serbia. China sees this differently than western countries. With its long struggle against colonial rule in the territory controlled by Western powers along China's coastal region, China's ruling party leaders have a very different perception of the situation than is shown in most western media, particularly during the two decades of China's reconciliation with Japan and the U.S. in its effort to catch up. In the rest of the world the perception is very different. The use of a military garrison or riot police from other parts of China would affect China's image carefully built up over two decades of a peaceful developing country working hard to catch up in living standards and technology. As the economy slows to 5-6% the damage would be to business confidence and investment, and to Hong Kong's status as a world financial center. This could also affect China's relations with the U.S., European Union and Britain. with criticism on action by China. Unlike negotiations with Japan by Mr. Lighthizer for president Reagan, when Japan enjoyed a trade surplus such as that of China today (where there were no such issues with Japan as the U.S. had offered security guarantees to Japan), negotiations with China on trade could be affected by issues such as status of Hong Kong. This could lead to a worsening of trade relations, indefinite duration of tariffs and lack of any settlement on trade, further slowing the Chinese economy and hardening positions. ...

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The ECB reduced a short term lending rate to 0.75%. The People's Bank of China reduced its one year yuan lending rate by 0.31% percentage point to 6%. The Bank of England increased its bond buying program by 50 billion pounds to 375 billion pounds.

LyrArc Article Gist
Critical to move forward in making investments for growth in the Indian economy are the government debt to GDP ratio and GST revenue collections. FInance minister Sitharaman tells parliament that the government debt to GDP ratio is 56.2 % and considerably less than many countries of the leading economies in Europe and the US, less than France and the US, Canada which are in triple digits. GST collections are at 1.49 lakh crores for July 2022, the second highest in history. Inflation is at 7% or below that.  Non performing assets of commercial banks are at 5.9%. She said about 4000 banks in China were reportedly on verge of being bankrupt by comparison and China has huge debt problem for local government. Much of the hard work of the government is makingit possible to set the conditions such as these for basic macroeconomic factors to be put in place for the next stage in India's journey to fulfill the aspirations of its people for a modern and technologically advanced economy with opportunity for all. ...