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Chinese are saving for the future as there is no safety net, no social security and no welfare or food stamps.And this means there will be a strong cutback in consumption and in sales of most products in China. Even before this global economic crisis China was becoming even more export oriented. In the last decade consumption as percentage of GDP actually declined from 47% to 37%. And the $586 billion stimulus has some measures to boost consumption but most of the money will go to infrastructure like new highways, railroads and airports. Housing construction is coming to a halt with home prices down 15% in Shenzen. And layoffs among exporters in the area north of Hong Kong like Li Kai which made 9 million sneakers for New Balance in 2007 will make 7 million in 2008, and is laying off 22% of its workers. Migrant workers are headed back home. The sales of foreign firms will be affected. GM's Buick brand saw sales decline an estimated 12% this year and JD Powers estimates decline in 2009 by 21%. Researcher BDA China sees cell phone sales down to 9% growth each year for next 5 years, down from 30% increases in the past 5 years....

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Keir Starmer of Labour  in Britain says "From 20 points behind to 20 points ahead in the polls." As Lincoln said you can fool some of the people all the time or all of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all of the time." This has relevance also for America in 2024 as president Biden in his transformative work for America faces the same kind of rumor and doubt Keir Starmer faced for the last two years, much of it pushed by the Tories. Lincoln said this in Clinton, Illinois, in the Lincoln- Douglas debates, September 2, 1858.

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Uncertainty in China's stock market with the ban on stock selling by large institutional investors. Goldman Sachs estimates that $184 billion in shares could be put up for sale if the ban was unambiguously lifted. The price swings on the market would be accentuated say analysts because of a decline in trading volume.

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The 8 hour Beatles documentary "Get Back" by director Peter Jackson is described as "mesmerizing" by Jason Gay in the WSJ. It shows the making of the "Let it Be" Album, ending in a rooftop London concert, the band's final creative period. It featured on Disney+ on November 25. It is a performance but an exhilarating one, with none of the documentary devices, no rambling talk heads, just the camera taking you there, says Jason Gay, to let you see the band's talents and shortcomings.

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The Hindustan Times provides this look at the construction of a new 1000 bed hospital in Bandra Kurla complex exhibition area of Mumbai  that will be used for isolation of coronavirus cases. The hospital will be ready in time to tackle an expected further surge in cases in Mumbai by the end of May. The hospital will be equipped to handle another 5000 beds says the Mumbai municipal authority, MMRDA. Several hospitals are being built such as this one to tackle the surge in cases as Mumbai has about 25% of cases in India of coronavirus.

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Mr. Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the select committee on foreign affairs, a Tory MP, says UK companies are vulnerable to takeover by foreign state backed entities and calls for new laws to protect British companies. Prime minister Boris Johnson is preparing to announce new laws that will make it mandatory for British companies to report to the government when any foreign company attempts to take over 25% of the shares in a British company, or which could pose a security threat, with strong sanctions. Failing to do so would have directors jailed, disqualified, or face large fines.

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Enel, Italy's energy company, plans to invest $83 billion over the next decade to 2030 to increase renewable energy capacity from 45 gigawatts to 120 gigawatts. Renewable energy's share is expected to increase from 27% to 33% by 2025, according to IEA. Europe has committed to spend a third of its $750 billion recovery fund on addressing climate issues. ENel market share would increase from 2.8% to 5% by the end of this decade. With Iberdrola of Spain Enel was early in making investments and is the largest company in renewable energy in Europe.

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Procter & Gamble, America's largest maker of soaps and detergent increased sales during 2020 by meeting demand for higher priced soap and electric tooth brush costing $300. P&G also makes diapers and Gillette razors. The company is making more high end products to boost sales. Consumers stuck in their homes are willing to spend more to keep themselves and their homes clean. This is also a requirement during the pandemic and considered a wise consumer spending item. P&G generated $3.9 billion in net income for 2020 fiscal 2nd quarter, with sales of about $20 billion.

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With 27% of votes counted over half or 57% of Berliners voted for nationalization of private developer housing units, only 39% voted no. Berliners cast more votes than they ever have. The vote shows Berliners have had enough of speculation in housing, mad rents, that are pushing locals out of the housing market, say referendum supporters. The vote is non binding, what it does is forces the Berlin city state government to find solutions to the housing problems in Berlin after decades of speculation in housing, and putting local Berliners in the forefront of housing solutions and housing investment.

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Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour Party says he would support a general election within weeks after the no-deal deadline has passed, and calls the Boris Johnson programs outlined in 26 bills in the Queen's speech a "farce." These bills were on National Health Service, Brexit, and crime. These bills have no chance of being carried out as Boris Johnson heads a minority government which has called for new elections. Corbyn said the bills barely dent the devastating cuts in public services of the past decade under the austerity policies.

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A new poll from YouGov shows the Conservative Party getting 310 seats and Labor Party at 257 seats. Labor would gain 30 seats and Conservatives lose 20 seats under this prediction. Conservatives would fall short of the majority of 326 seats needed. Support for Theresa May is slipping especially after announcing older people would have to take on more burden for care, dubbed the dementia tax by media. A coalition of Labor party with the Scottish National party (SNP) with 50 seats and the Liberal Democrats with 10 seats is now a possibility.

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"Made in China 2025" is a plan by China to build competitive companies in new technology industries such as advanced microchips, driverless cars, robotics. This is one area in which there is a huge difference in trade matters more than the tariffs issue, because the U.S. sees this as an effort to dominate these industries with state subsidized loans at low interest rates. The Trump administration has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on imports from China in these industries to protect U.S. companies. The U.S. insists there should be a level playing field for U.S. companies.

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Quentin Hardy gives this exceptional account of a startup company named Box in cloud computing services, based in Los Altos, California. Co-founder and CEO, Aaron Levie, faces a cash burn rate and larger competitors, as Box had losses in the 2014-2015 fiscal year of $167 million with revenues of $216 million, growth slowing to 30% for the current year from 74% the prior year. Box has 1200 employees, 45,000 paying customers, and $330 million in cash. Share price has declined by 25%, as it faces strong competition from Amazon, Microsoft, and other larger competitors.

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Can I do something that matters in people's lives? This is a question more and more people are asking as they return to work. Over  26% of people in one WSJ survey say they now feel that their jobs are not particularly meaningful. Others feel their jobs and job security may be threatened. An April survey showed one in four feel this way, yet things may be improving as people return to work. In May 2.5 million jobs were added in the U.S. according to Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

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Coronavirus testing is taking off in the U.S. for the first time after the U.S. Federal Drug Administration relaxed testing regulations on February 29, and as more universities and hospitals develop their own testing technology and apply it. The FDA has approved more than 15 tests and many more are awaiting approval. 

This includes UC Davis, Washington University School of Medicine, Brigham and Women's, Harvard Medical School, Mount Sinai Medical Center in New York City, centers that are running the tests limited only by the shortage of reagents supplies.

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Carney calls Canadian elections on April 28 2025. He was head of the Bank of England and comes from the financial sector. The opposition leader from the Conservatives cannot be ruled out as he enjoyed increase in popularity after Trudeau's popularity declined after being in power since 2015. Carney has never contested an election and the example of Sunak is recent. Sunak called an early election only to lose badly to Labour in 2024 after serious missteps by the Liberals and a split in the party. That split has not been fixed by Carney in any way. 

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French president Macron is seen as aloof from voter concerns about the rising cost of living. Visiting a farmer in the Burgundy region Marie Le Pen said prices of food and vegetables have gone up 25% over 5 years since Macron became president.  To win over supporters from working class communities in north and northeast who have voted for Jean Luc-Melenchon, a former Socialist candidate, Macron visited Denian, a town in the north of France.  Melenchon's France Unbowed party got about 21.95 % of the vote compared to Le Pen's 23.15%. Getting working class voters to support Macron who had 27.84% of the vote is now crucial for Macron. Denian has an unemployment rate of 36%. Macron told voters the best way to tackle poverty is to bring down the unemployment rate which is now 7.4%.  Many of these communities in the north, northeast, and in the southeast have suffered from the two decade shift of manufacturing to China, creating a situation similar to that in the midwest of the US and posing a challenge for established parties. The Republicains of De Gaulle and the Socialists of Mitterand, the established parties did badly in the election, each getting less than 5%of the vote. It is this problem that Macron has to address to get the votes of working class voters in France. Challenging the notion that he has been aloof from this problem and the problem of cost of living for young and for pensioners Macron says he will listen, learn and act, and he is "not afraid to go into battle in the most difficult areas." On this first day of campaigning for the second round he spent 2 hours talking to people in Denian. Angry voters told him he did not care for pensioners. In his response Macron said he will increase the minimum pension from 10500 euros to 13200 euros a year. A pension reform plan for increasing the retirement age for pensions to 65 from 62 will now be put to a referendum so that voters could reject it if they chose to. Macron also responded to the sentiment that his administration was more concerned about the rich by proposing that firms paying dividends to shareholders will be required to give one off bonuses of 6000 euros to all employees earning less than 46,000 euros a year.  On his opponent Marie Le Pen's plan to cut VAT tax on gasoline to 5% from 20%, Macron told voters that this was counterfeit money, asking "can anyone really say there will be no VAT for gasoline imported from the rest of the world?" ...

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People in Japan are living longer healthier lives. So much so that people are working well into their 70's. In Nagano, Japan, people say that those in their 40's and 50's are like a child with a runny nose, and people in their 60's and 70's are in the prime of their careers. In this WSJ report, 38 years old Norohiro Aizawa is a part time farmer, who says he plans to work into his 70's like many farmers in Japan. Today his father in his early 70's is active and in charge. Sachiko Kobayashi runs a crafts business, has a job making box lunches, and a garden full of pumpkins and radishes. She is 65 and gets up at 3 am. In Nagano she is called by the term pre-elderly, not elderly. For elderly she has a long way to go. Japan has 29% of the population in under over 65 years group, Europe 21% and US 17%. Yet something else is happening. People are just taking better care of themselves and their health, and living, working longer. A 70 year old today in Nagano is in health status like a 60 year old one or two generations ago. Perceptions of what is elderly have changed.    Japan's White Paper on the Elderly in 2021 shows studies suggesting that many in the 65-74 year group do not share traits associated with the term elderly.  Only 6% require care by others. Half of 65-69 year olds hold jobs, and a third of those in their early 70's also hold jobs. Life expectancy in Japan stretches into the late 80's for women, and early 80's for men. This is almost 5-8 years more than countries like the UK with a strong national health service. In April 2021 a revised Employment Law took effect, telling big employers to offer work to workers until age 70, up from previously government sanctioned retirement age of 65 years. Government says it is meant to protect the right of people to work longer. There is even a term called late-elderly.  Oshima 82 of Nagano, leads a volunteer group that shoots video of community festivals and works late into the night, and is cited in this WSJ story as saying that even if people called him late elderly, his response is oh yeah? I don't care. It is all about living a full life, terms don't matter at all when one stays healthy.   ...

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Of 161 million people employed in 2024 about 40-50 million in vulnerable groups living from paycheck to paycheck and without savings to support them in a medical emergency is a real problem in the US economy. It is why even as unemployment looks good at 4% and inflation down to 3% there is a lot of angst for Americans for cost of living. Fifteen million baby boomers who will turn 65 years for retirement between now 2024 and 2030 face a situation where they have less than 250,000 in savings. Many who were born between 1945 and 1962 called baby boomers are in this group with diminished savings. In the prime of their careers they were hit by the 2009 financial crisis caused by bank speculation risk taking. They also were hit by the pandemic in the peak years of income growth. Other such vulnerable groups are young people with high student who are being helped by president Biden. There are also the low income groups that have been hit by medical costs and a family emergency that were pushed into poverty. Other groups in the millions are the people at the low income levels who are working paycheck to paycheck because of housing costs. About one fourth or 25% of apartment renters are people whose households budget shows 50% or more going to housing costs which have increased 20% in the last 2-3 years, which includes the pandemic years 2022 and 2023. President Biden seeks to limit apartment rent price increases to 5% and Kamala Harris has proposed help for families for the portion above 30% of household income going to rent. The jump in cost of living from automobiles, automobile repair and housing, cost of groceries have affected other groups with large credit card debt. This is a result of the supply chain concentration in China which comes from American business overconcentrating production in China and previous administrations doing little about this. Biden's answer is to bring jobs and manufacturing knowhow and investment back to America. During the pandemic some people resisted getting vaccinated and lost their jobs, a million people lost their lives, others took early retirement seeing the stress ful lives during the pandemic, others including women quit to take care of children. This has reduced the labor supply to business leading to tight supply higher prices.The result is that there are about 5 such vulnerable groups each with about 5-10 million people for a total of about 40-50 million people at risk. For these people the cost of living presents huge challenges, including childcare. It includes young people and retirees, single women and families on low income hourly wages that have not kept up with inflation.  ...

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Frank Bruni says the wind of change sweeping across New York with the win of 28 year old Ocasio-Ortiz and defeat of older incumbent Crowley in a Democratic primary shows a shift to younger politicians. Ortiz campaigned for Bernie Sanders.

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Where do you place a winner of the Democratic primary in Maine, Graham Plattner, an oyster farmer who dropped out of college at George Washington University, served briefly in the Middle East wars of Bush and Obama, and had PTSD. Is he working class, middle working class or is he from a downwardly mobile professional class considering he has parents who are well educated and father a prominent lawyer in Maine? Plattner easily defeated a 3 term governor of Maine with his average working class demeanor and language. He is for universal health care, (Medicare for All) universal child care, affordable housing, affordable college. Politics in the US has been moving away from the simple divisions before 1950 created by the Industrial Revolution- the workers in factories and the owners of capital allied with the professional middle class. The few owners of capital mostly college educated allied with people from the non college educated workers in factories who are conservative in their values and beliefs and on the other side the college educated professional middle class now downwardly mobile because of the many recessions and high unemployment from frequent financial crises, with college costing $80,000 a year putting them in deep debt. There is today in the WSJ a story of a professional worker who at $194,000 a year salary is not able to payoff $15000 debt which owners of capital have set at 26% interest and is in downward spiral. Some of this comes from large college and other debt. There is says WSJ Analysis $1.25 trillion in credit card debt alone with highest delinquency rates in decades in 2026. Cost of living has only made things worse and some of this happened as Biden poured money into the economy to help people hurt by the pandemic, yet with some short run consequences with demand strong businesses including hotels, restaurants and grocery stores, auto dealers, jacking up their prices by over 20% in 1 year and Biden failing to respond, getting overwhelmed by open borders migrants under Mayorkas and Harris (also hit by a sudden Venezuelan migrant influx). This is the America one has today- a confusing mix. This in reality means Democrats may take issue with Democrats, Republicans take issue with Republicans, and Democrats join with Republicans on issue by issue basis. It might actually be rational than irrational. On cultural issues if the country has gone over its head and moved too fast on some issues that are not for the general public good, people of different backgrounds can come together to get the best path. On economic issues things are never so straightforward, there are unpredictable consequences and the rules of economics are really not so straightforward either.  Providing relief can mean the government shouldering the burden as during the pandemic which it should, yet with caution as businesses can use the excess demand to raise prices and one is back to square one with everybody worse off as happened with Biden. Migrant flows and fears of insecurity in public spaces can lead to a severe public "discomfort that can waylay the best intentions of a Harris or Biden, leading to public "backlash." In fact the title of a recent book is "Whiplash." Current books include Floridan Marco Rubio's "Decade's of Decadence- How our Spoiled Elites Blew America's Inheritance of Liberty, Security and Prosperity." Rubio means it. Its authentic because as Rubio says repeatedly, his parents could make a living in the 1960's working in a factory with decent wages, low cost of living and low cost of college, the arithmetic between salaries and what you needed for decent home in suburbs and sending children to good public schools, then to college, all adding up. The result is that Rubio could go to college and serve in the Florida legislature. Rubio says in 2026, after the elites under Bush and Obama and faulty economic theory shipped all of our factories to China, that the story of his parents and his education would simply be impossible. This is what he told people in India on his first visit last week. His parents were Cuban immigrants, yet he identifies with Spain and with western civilization, a devout Roman Catholic. Rubio is a Republican, and is in large contrast with Alejandro Mayorkas, also from Cuba, and Biden's Head of Homeland Security. This is the mix of people and representatives in Congress,  business people, small business owners, professionals, that we have today in 2026 in the US. Plattner and Rubio, one a Democrat and one a Republican- both have something in common. Plattner also has general disdain for "the corporate interests, the billionaires, the Washington DC elites, and the establishment politicians."  The winds are blowing in the direction of getting things right- remembering that Eisenhower continued the work of the Kennedy and LBJ administrations (Eisenhower built the Interstate Highway System for instance, and LBJ gave America Social Security and Medicare). Before that Franklin Roosevelt a Democrat built on the work of his uncle Republican Theodore Roosevelt (TR gave America the idea of good governance and built the US Navy, FDR fought the Depression and stabilized a faltering economy after mistakes made by Republican Herbert Hoover could have happened even if Hoover was a Democrat. FDR was himself from a wealthy New York family and when he first met fellow New Yorker Frances Perkins before his struggle with polio, a haughty New York gentleman. That was before Frances Perkins as FDR's Labor Secretary joined forces with Roosevelt to give New York a modernized administration governance structure by 1940 that was applied to all 51 states after 1950. It allied labor with capital with fairness for all, and was the first such modern structure of this size the world had ever seen, which was the fundamental strength of the United States of America. It was imitated in Asia, first in the Shanghai region then China, and first in the Ahmedabad region and now India. The US is faced with the challenge of recreating and rebuilding this today, as first China, then India remind America of its roots which they have followed in their own style and culture.  First good governance, then good institutional structures, alligning labor and capital with fairness for all, strong affordable + accessible educational and healthcare systems, and investments of capital and labor for infrastructure + industrial development. ...

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Senator Steve Daines of Montana meets Premier Li Qiang of China, March 23 2025, to convey -US is serious about fentanyl flows on behalf of the US president DJT.

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Portugal raised 3 billion euros in a 10 year bond sale at 5.67% in May 2013. Portugal had orders of 10.2 billion euros from investors. This is a significant step forward for Portugal to return to bond markets. Portugal's ratings are Ba3 from Moody's, BB from Standard & Poors Investors Services and BB+ from Fitch Ratings.

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The best that can be said about all the efforts to stabilize the housing markets is that they help in the context of the credit crisis that hit the economy hard with the Bear Stearns crisis and help to provide an orderly retreat for housing prices and ways to soften the blow to homeowners and lenders caught up in the wave of foreclosures. But housing prices themselves have not declined anywhere near what one would expect. In fact BW, p17, April 7, 2008 shws percentage changes for existing homes from Feb 2007 to Feb 2008 with data from the National Association of Realtors. And they are surprising when you consider sales for the northeast down 26% and prices up slightly 0.4%. Elsewhere the sales are down 29% in the Western states for a 13% price decline, sales down 20% for a 7% price decline in the Midwestern states, and sales are down 22% for a 9% decline in the Southern states. Jobless rates are 3.9% in Austin, Texas and Birmingham, Alabama and only Detroit, St Louis and Cleveland have jobless rates above 6%. What this suggests is that the unemployment situation has not seen the brunt of this credit tightening and drop in capital investment. As house prices have not declined much declines over 10% mostly in the western states and places like Detroit but not in the northeast and across the south, and unemployment still low across many regional communities, consumption spending has not seen the brunt of this credit tightening. Once tightened credit conditions hit payrolls as companies cut their workforce and unemployment moves up then expect to see greater housing price declines as more houses go into foreclosures, and then expect consumption spending to feel the impact which would reduce sales and further trim payrolls as companies run their factories at less and less production capacity. This sequence would continue and bring the economic crisis to more and more parts of the country in a manner that we have hardly see upto this point. What we have seen is the unfolding of a collapse of mortgage securities firms and of mortgage securites insurance providers like ACA, and with it the huge writedowns about $150 billion taken by the investment houses and the banks. And this has happened as a wave of foreclosures took place in 2006. And the collapse of Bear Stearns with the effects felt in global stock markets. In the communities themselves in the areas of consumption spending and in jobs the conditions will only now begin to be felt and the real impact not felt till the end of 2008 and into 2009 with the Fed action to shore up confidence adding several months in slowing the process. See the link to BW, Bernanke the Reluctant Revolutionary, where the BW estimate is that Americans took on about $3 trillion in additional debt between 2000 and 2006 from what they would have taken if they had followed the trajectory of spending patterns that had prevailed upto that point, with their recent free spending ways. It would take abot 3 to 4 years conservatively for Americans to work down all that debt. Another way of saying this is that consumption spending is going to take a big hit and with it sales of companies and consequently higher unemployment and more part time labor force with less benefits, which would tend to depress consumption even more. The winds of housing, credit, consumption and unemployment would all hit the economy in about 12 months time. Credit will further tighten as BW estimates about $130 billion of additional writedowns still expected....