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Huge losses sustained by sovereign wealth funds. Estimated $350 billion for Gulf foreign reserve funds and SWF's, according to RGE Monitor's Rachel Ziemba, or 27% of assets. Sovereign Wealth funds are either using their funds for supporting their local banks as in the Gulf areas, or buying back stakes of cash strapped western banks like RBS in the case of China. Russia, China and other countries are using their SWF's for stimulus spending. And Russia, Gulf economies that are dependent on oil prices, are looking at possible sale of foreign assets at oil prices between $50 and a deterioration to $25. Only China has a surplus that is sustained through the last quarter of 2008, but this is changing quickly as imports pick up after the stimulus kicks in, and exports drop precipitiously in 2010. South Korea and Russia have also learned of the need to have liquid safe investments preferably in dollars in the current crisis, as they have learned how large capital outflows can get in a short time. And the US is not looking at these large capital inflows from overseas as a benevolent thing, because it overvalues American assets, and leads to all sorts of distortions in liquidity and pricing of risk that contributed to the current crisis. In short the whole situation with SWF's has a suprising ending, as with everything in the current crisis, nothing worked out as expected or planned....

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Rich calls Obama's speech for all its apparent thoughfulness and logic, a failure in its mission of coming up with a way to tackle Afghanistan and Pakistan. It did not grapple with the real issue and complexity of these places. He says the rigorous analysis failed and what Obama is ending up with is a too clever by half holding action which lacks credibility becuase the Karzai regime lacks credibility, and the American people have serious doubts of the wisdom of increased involvement. Worse it lacks acredible exit strategy for all the emphasis on early withdrawal. Making some calculations with Petraeus's field manual Rich comes up with a force of 586,000 that would be needed for a proper counterinsurgency in Afghnistan for its population of 28.4 million. But America still would have only less than one fourth of this number in the vast mountainous terrain of Afghnistan, especially when the government it is backing has seriously alienated its own people. So isn't it just as possible that McChrystal and Gates have made a serious error, that the surge that worked in Iraq was based on apeculiar topography that is absent here, which means even more troops not awithdrawal is likely a year from now? He points out that, as Fred Kaplan had pointed out in Slate, that the idea that the coaltiion partners are increasing their share of the burden is an illusion, as America's new share of allied troops with the surge will be 70% compared to 50% when the Bush administration left office. But what he finds most disingenuous is the idea that there will be no sacrifices in economic terms for America, that life can just go on like before, even as the cost of the war will shortchange urgent economic priorities at home and even gut alot of the domestic needs. This was missing in the Obama presentation....

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As the US gets serious about defeating the Taliban and Al Quaeda militants in Afghanistan and in Pakistan's border areas in Waziristan and the Northwest Frontier Province, and as Pakistan's army and government are at loggerheads and are also each in its own way unable or unwilling to take action against these militants operating out of or near the border areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan, it appears that the situation will result in the US having to make some tough decisions including going ahead anyway regardless of agreement with Pakistan. At the same time Defense Secretary Gates is saying that he wnats to see the Afghan army numbers to be doubled from the present 65,000 to be able to spread out across the country and not just be stuck in the urban areas. Any success the US and NATO see in Afghanistan would stem from some of these tough decisions including some tough decisions of a different nature that deal with Afghan government provincial officials tacit involvement in the opium growing areas. Like Iraq this will be a tough one for the US and the Europeans to sort out and make take a lot of patience and effort and some disappointments on the road before serious and lasting results that do not compromise basic American and European goals and intentions. With these goals and intentions the American and the Europeans seek to leave behind a peaceful modernizing state keeping its own faith and traditions with tolerance for others, at the same time that it respects women and economic development and modern education in science and technology that would make this development possible. And these goals would have to be applied as the vital test for the whole region Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India and for the basis of all policy towards the region, foreign policy, economc policy, development policy and regional issue policy like that of Kashmir. ...

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With inflation at 3.6% last month for the euro zone and well above the ECB target rate of 2%, and no signs that the cooling economy will bring inflation down significantly for the next few months, it appears that ECB is not likely to lower rates till the 3rd quarter.

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Joe Nocera says, that its like the Wizard of Oz story, and the curtain being pulled back to reveal that it was the end of quarter games that enabled GE to make earnings estimates, quarter after quarter, for years. Last April is when the curtain gets pulled back because with the Bear Stearns collapse and the crisis in financial markets, these games could not be played anymore. The fact is that after all the talk about how great GE's infrastructure business and other businesses were, GE was making somewhere near half its profit from its financial businesses under GE Capital. And during this period very little was disclosed by GE about the complicated financial machinery of its GE Capital unit and how it generated its profit, everything had to be taken on faith. This does not work anymore, after all the excesses, leverage and errors that have taken place in the financial markets. After repeated denials that it needed to raise new equity, GE raised $15 billion in new equity in late September 2008, including $3 billion from Warren Buffett. Then there was the two thirds dividend cut in early March 2009, after repeated denials, so that GE could conserve cash. Investors want to know more. Is GE Capital marking to market its assets that have fallen in value, now that its clear that these assets are likely to decline further, and stay that way for a very long time. Two analysts at Sterne Agee questioned GE Capital's accounting. Two days after GE cut its dividend, on March 3, 2009, Nicholas Heymann issued a report saying that GE Capital " is now confronting the prospect that a downward trend in fundamental performance, fueled by weakening end markets and magnified by several liquidity constraints, could potentially lead to an extended period of steadily lowered earnings, depleted loss provisions, lower credit ratings, rising borrowing costs." A day later GE stock hit $6. And credit default swaps suggested investors were worried about a default. As investors look for more transparency from GE, its going to clarify whether embedded losses are at $4 billion as GE claims or at $21 to $54 billion as Heymann is saying. GE's CFO Mr. Sherin appeared on CNBC with defense of the company's position, saying the company had $45 billion in cash, and there were no triggers that would have call on the company's cash in the short term. He said GE is trying to rebuild its credibility, and also trying to be clear, open and honest. Sherin promised to do this at a meeting on the week of March 16, 2009, where he would give details on the parts of the portfolio causing the most distress, $20 billion of subprime mortgages in the UK, the loan portfolio in Eastern Europe, and the commercial real estate holdings. And he told Joe Nocera of NYT, that GE had nothing to hide. But no one including Nocera is giving GE the benefit of the doubt, and no one today is taking anything on faith....

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Mistrust in the financial system that led to a spike in interbank lending rates in Europe and the USA on August 9th, 2007. When risk is dispersed throughout the financial system such as with mortgage securitization it makes everyone nervous because no one knows exactly how much is out there and where.

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The Pakistan army and its anti India mindset is at the root of the problem Pakistan faces. The army has factions that support the Taliban. Its intelligence agency, the ISI, helped create the Taliban as a way to get strategic depth (as they called it) in Afghanistan, for it sees as a necessary perpetual conflict with India. And the failure in Pakistan, the crisis of Pakistan, lies in the failure of elected politicians, the failure of the army, to provide responsible government and peaceful relations with India and with Afghanistan. By pursuing a Hindu-Muslim conflict agenda, and a anti-foreigner agenda for Afghanistan, Pakistan has ended up undermining its own government, institutions, and sovereignty over tribal areas and the North West Frontier Province. The US by getting involved in the Hindu-Muslim conflict agenda, and the anti-foreigner agenda during the Cold War, by supplying weapons and aid for this to successive Pakistani military governments, now finds itself as the foreigner in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Pakistan army's anti-foreigner agenda, now that the Americans are the foreigners, is not something that even the army or the civilian governments can control. The only thing the army knows, and its raison-de-etre, is the protection of the state of Pakistan and an antiIndian, Hindu-Muslim conflict agenda. After 60 years of doing this since its founding the Pakistan army knows no other way. Failure to do what it is doing would remove it from its critical role as the most important institution in Pakistan, and relegate its officers and the army to a smaller role, with smaller committments of resources, a smaller army, and the loss of its privileged role in Pakistani society. This is the answer to Holbrooke's question to Pakistani businessmen, and civilian leaders, in Lahore recently, what is the crisis of Pakistan? And these businessmen and civilian leaders also touched on the army's role. For America as it sees the need to build a new economic partnership with Asia that would help revive economic growth, there is the need for deep soul searching. The Pakistan military sucks up resources that are so badly needed elsewhere, for the kind of construction the Obama administration sees for America, of roads, bridges, schools, new energy infrastructure. How can what is good and planned for America not be whats good for South Asia, for India, Pakistan, SriLanka and the entire region? The resources that are sucked up by the Pakistan military and its actions to foster aconflict atmosphere merely adds to the way resources are sucked for the military in India, when they are badly needed for development, economic growth, and the same kind of infrastructure building and education that the Obama administration plans for the US. Without correcting this flaw in its policies in South Asia the Obama administration cannot create a partnership with Asian countries that could play a critical role in America's own economic growth....

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Stephen Moore of the WSJ interviews Grover Norquist, head of the advocacy group Americans for Tax Reform. Republicans in Congress and other Republican leaders have signed on to the "no new taxes pledge" promoted by Norquist. There is increasing pressure on Norquist as the media, White House, and executives on Wall Street call for flexible positions from both sides on taxes and spending cuts. Norquist insists that not much has changed. He says that the increase in taxes on the rich is only symbolic and has to be followed up with increasing taxes on the middle class. He cites a Rasmussen poll that shows 75% of Americans believe this. Norquist is convinced that the Democrats with their spending plans are out to take the U.S. in the direction of European economies, the tax increase on the rich would be followed up with a energy tax or a value added tax to pay for unrestrained spending. His solution is for Republicans to pass a bill that extends the current tax rates past January after roughing it through the tax cliff date. Even the sequester option is better than increasing taxes says Norquist, letting the Defense Department make the cuts where appropriate. Norquist does not favor the option of reducing tax loopholes and deductions as a way to increase taxes as proposed by Simpson Bowles commission and Ryan-Romney in the election campaign. ...

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Iran's government drastically cut subsidies for gasoline, electricity and basic food items. Gasoline prices were raised from 1,000 rials (about 10 cents) per liter to 4,000 rials. As a result gasoline consumption is down 14% in early January from the prior month. Use of public transport is up 20%. Fares for Tehran's buses and subway went up by 20%, far less than the price increase for gasoline. The government introduced a $40 per person monthly stipend to soften the impact especially for poor families. Iranians are gradually tightening their belts and adjusting to the price increases, reducing wasteful energy use. Iranians have one of the highest rates of wasteful energy consumption in the world, according to IMF. This is because Iran has so far provided generous subsidies, covering 80% of the cost of energy and basic food items. President Ahmadinejad has introduced the Smart Subsidy Plan which calls for a gradual five year phaseout. These cuts will save $100 billion a year, according to government estimates, and is supported by the IMF. Iran is rigorously monitoring price increases in retail stores to ensure that retailers are not passing on the increases to customers. Trucking and transport businesses are allowed to raise their fees by only 15% to cover rising costs including the 837% fuel price increase....

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The Netherlands government of prime minister Mark Rutte collapsed on April 22, 2012, after the Freedom party of Geert Wilders said it would not support futher budget cuts. Mr. Wilders said: "We don't want our pensioners to bleed just to meet the dictates coming from Brussels." Government forecasts had predicted the Netherlands deficit at 4.6% of GDP in 2012, above the 3% goal set by the European Union. And negotiations that collapsed were about making $18 billion in budget cuts to help meet the deficit goal. Rutte will now lead a caretaker government till elections in September or October 2012. Credit agencies may lower the Netherlands credit ratings from AAA and this would raise Netherlands borrowing costs in coming months. The result would be to increase the deficit even further. The Netherlands government was a strong supporter of Germany to introduce strict austerity measures and budget cuts in the eurozone during the debt crisis in EU countries in 2010-2011. With the elections in France and the defeat of French president Sarkozy in the first phase of elections by Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, the austerity programs in Europe appear to be unravelling. The deeper Europe goes into a recession in 2012-2013, the more likely new measures will be needed to address competitiveness, growth, interest rates and overvalued currencies as opposed to largely fiscal and budget measures alone....

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Diesel prices are regulated and subsidized by the Indian government, but gasoline prices are deregulated since 2010, resulting in gasoline costing 64% more than diesel in India. As a result buyers are staying away from gasoline cars and shifting to diesel creating distortions in demand. The government is considering a tax on diesel cars and SUV's of between $3000 to $4600 to correct the distortion. Because lower income people woud be hurt by increasing the price of diesel it continues to be subsidized. Because of the uncertainty car manufacturers are shutting down production to reduce growing inventory of gasoline vehicles. High interest rates of 12% on car loans also reduces demand. Suzuki Maruti sales declined 6% in May 2012, Ford and GM showed sales declines of 14% and 20%. The year ending March 2012 shows Indian car sales growing only slightly by 2.2% to 2 million cars. Sales were rising at 29% only about a year ago. Gasoline costs 68 rupees a liter in New Delhi after a 11.5% increase in May 2012, compared to 41 rupees per liter for diesel. The increase in gasoline prices is a result of the government having difficulty paying the rising imports of oil, costing $141 billion for the year ending March 31, 2012. The sharp slowdown in the car industry and the problems in the energy sector have affected India's growth rate....

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U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen's speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston conference on inequality was remarkable in the clear focus on the increase in inequality of the last three decades. Yellen calls it "the most sustained rise in inequality since the nineteenth century." Yellen also described the stark inequality between the lower half of households and those at the top- "The lower half of households by wealth held just 3 percent of wealth in 1989 and only 1 percent in 2013. To put that in perspective... the average net worth of the lower half of the distribution, representing 62 million households, was $11,000 in 2013. About one fourth of these families reported zero wealth or negative net worth, and a significant fraction of those said they were "underwater" on their home mortgages, owing more than the value of the home." Without saying this explicitly Yellen has accepted the Fed's own role in this situation under Greenspan and Bernanke. Under Bernanke Yellen was vicechairwoman. Yellen participated in many of the decisions of the Fed that kept interest rates low- hurting savers and those who could not take the risks of a volatile stock market. Yet Yellen has shown courage in stating the problem with all the facts she could muster, and making clear that Fed sees the long term unemployed as a critical driver for Fed policy....