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In the last 3 years foreign exchange reserves from Iraqi oil revenues have tripled to $22 billion, and there are an additional $8 billon in bank accounts in New York from unused funds from oil exports. Yet Americans are shouldering most of the burden for reconstruction of Iraq with $47 billion spent so far and both Senators Warner and Levin are raising questions about why Iraqi oil revenue cannot bear some of thses costs. These questions will grow louder as the US faces its own economic crisis from financial markets in turmoil. Meantime only 22% of Iraq's $6 billion capital budget for infrastructure expenditures has been spent so far. The infrastructure budget itself seems to be very small. After the war and years of decline under economic sanctions of the previous regime one would expect the needs to be huge, yet only $2 billion spent so far is very strange. Even the account here of bureaucratic bungling and loads of signatures required to prevent corruption, and the lack of a computerized banking system requiring the physical handling and moving of truckloads of cash seem strange considering the extraordinary amount of investment and huma effort the US has put into this war and reconstruction. Even this article fails to account for this bizarre situation of dire needs for infrastructure and for basic services of sewage, health and basic food supplies and housing going unmet while oil revenues and US funds go unused. Has this something to do with the militias, lack of security, insurgent fighting, and ethnic cleansing, and lack of agreement and decision power in the administration, that has created a bizarre situation in which nothing much happens. The oil revenues also complicate matters in that in any defacto partition and separate administrations of Sunni and Shiite areas and Kurdish areas the oil revenues need to be fairly divided so that it supports neigborly coexistence of the communities. This delays creation of separate administrations and accountability which could lead to dramatic improvement in services and rebuilding as accountability is missing today with every bureaucrat and politicain waiting to see what happens and what the future will look like....

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A public relations campaign by China about Japan's role as a colonial power in 1905-1945.

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The Economist points out (in this cover issue on India-Pakistan relations) several fundamental facts. The first is that the current state of relations betweeen India and Pakistan hurts Pakistan the most. It makes a much smaller country and smaller economy bear the burden of defense against a large neighbor- defense takes up much needed allocation of funds for infrastructure and development, education and healthcare. It also weakens democratic institutions and their development by an overdependence on the military for governance. Poor India-Pakistan relations have significant adverse effects on the U.S. In fighting the Taliban U.S. forces are fighting a force that Pakistan's military helped create and support from its early beginnings as a way to counter Indian influence. With an Indian-Pakistani peace settlement of issues in Kashmir and other outstanding issues the U.S. would be in a significantly better position to disengage from the region, especially when the entire Middle East is moving in a new direction in 2011. Consider the difficulties in establishing peace in Northern Ireland, and between Turkey and Greece, and the difficulties of establishing peace between India and Pakistan cannot be considered even more difficult. Pakistan and India muddle along- neither side is doing much to take the initiative. For the U.S. disengagement from South Asia can be best achieved by pushing for a settlement between the two countries. Pakistan and India have much to gain from a settlement. Considering the progress made in Ireland, such places as Yugoslavia, and in Turkish-Greek relations, there is a lot more that can be done and should be done to bring India and Pakistan together. In Ireland diplomatic efforts were made by U.S. envoy George Mitchell, and in Yugoslavia U.S. envoy Holbrooke made diplomatic efforts towards the Dayton accords. Greek-Turkish relations have advanced to the point where Erdogan and Papandreou, the Greek and Turkish prime ministers, discuss solutions to the Greek debt crisis. This includes options to reduce Greece's defense expenditures in the light of Turkey's new foreign policies. The lack of such efforts to break the deadlock between India and Pakistan by the U.S,. the U.K. and other countries involved in the NATO mission in Afghanistan, the emphasis on a military solution supported first by Gen. McChrystal, and then by by Gen. Petraeus, all show a lack of understanding of the real issues that need to be tackled- issues relating to a peace settlement between India and Pakistan....

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Harold Meyerson looks into the causes of the decline of white working class Americans by 2015. A whole section of society that was helped by the work of FDR is being undone by a combination of forces, from the decline in working class wages and jobs through globalized business, social structures unravelling, and support structures weakening. Meyerson refers to the Deaton-Case Princeton study on increasing death rates for this group. The white working class is much smaller now than in 1940 when he says 82% of Americans over 25 had only an high school education, down to 29% in 2007. The result is that it has less power to affect policies, yet is close to one third of Americans. Economic recovery, the American dream, all remain hobbled without efforts to tackle this problem. Trump's effort to appeal to this class, Meyerson points out, is similiar to the National Front's effort in France, making the political dialogue even more divisive by targeting immigrants.

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Changes at USAID headed by Rajiv Shah as it makes more room for private initiative of local groups and funding of local groups in countries being helped, and shifting away from handing whole projects to U.S. government contractors. Another change is the harnessing of the efforts of U.S. corporations interested in emerging market countries for introducing their products as part of an aid effort. An example is GE for medical equipment at Nelson Mandela Children's Hospital opening in South Africa in 2016. In countries where corruption is widespread such as Afghanistan, giving money to government ministry creates risks of waste and corruption, a problem which is however part of larger problem of wasted resources in that country. The basic concept of using private initiative and getting the involvement of local groups, U.S. corporations interested in emerging markets at the aid level for their products, taken up by Shah is sound and was overdue. It is already the practice as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is doing much of the heavy lifting and large scale aid effort in poor countries of Africa and Asia. Shah worked at that the Gates Foundation before USAID. An example is the Grand Challenges for Development program to get innovators to help tackle problems in poor countries- the Pratt Pouch a small pouch with anti-AIDS drugs not requiring refrigeration was developed at Duke University and could potentially prevent transmission of HIV to 400,000 babies a year. Shah's own background of immigrant parents coming from India gives him a unique insight into how to combine the involvement of the creative abilities of well intentioned Americans at universities and private companies and local groups in poor countries, to leverage the results. He has a medical degree from the University of Pennsylvania....

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Krugman puts it best when he says in the NYT that he's got a sick feeling in the pit of his stomach. Its just that the Republican challenge of not a single vote in the House for the $789 billion Stimulus bill just makes it harder to go back for more money which most definitely will be needed. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that over the next 3 years there will be a $2.9 trillion gap between what the economy could produce and will actually produce. $789 billion won't be enough, and more so because the weightage shifted in the direction of tax cuts from the original version. And considering the accelerating nature of the crisis on the housing front and in layoffs and consumption, the absence of a clear action plan with specifics to deal with the bad debt in the banking system, is what gives this sick feeling in the stomach. Because as is stated on these same pages by experts from Japan on February 12, NYT, see the link, Japan went through this same soul searching, public anger, controversy, and political leaders were afraid to take strong action for years from the mid 1990's till 2003 after Koizumi's election. Each action or set of actions each year during that period before 2003 was behind the curve, and did not match what was needed. For the USA this has happened already for 2007, 2008 and is heading in that direction for 2009, with a lack of consensus for the strong action needed. Would 4 million new jobs be generated by the current stimulus if that is a measure of success, as Obama indicated at his first press conference? With less going into spending for education, infrastructure, energy and other green projects, in favor of tax cuts and the AMT, and the feeling that going to Congress for more money will be harder and a partisan affair, will this become difficult to achieve? ...

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The lack of economic opportunities for an increasingly urbanized African younger generation is a major challenge. The median age of 19 makes Africa the world's youngest continent. Megacities are growing up in places such as Lagos and Kinshasha as millions leave subsistence farming to go to cities. Unlike Asia and Latin American countries men and women are coming to shantytowns in cities at a time when Africa is much poorer for a similar level of urbanization that Asian and Latin American nations reached decades earlier. In 1993 this WSJ analysis and graphs show the Asian emerging economies and sub Saharan Africa had similar GDP per capita of $2415, by 2019 this was $4000 for Africa and $12,000 for Asian emerging economies. Latin America was at $10,000 in 1993 and in 2019 was at about $15,000. The gap widened considerably between Asia and African countries. Asian emerging economies increased GDP to 5 time from the same starting point as Africa in 1993, Africa doubled GDP over the period of 25 years to 2019. Latin America started from a much higher point and increased GDP by only 50% over 25 years. Asian economies that performed better over this period did better because of stable even entrenched governments such as in Singapore with Le Kuan Yew and in China with stable successive governments under CPC leadership of prime minister Deng. The difference in Asia was a commitment across all classes and groups to development, a sense of development as a way to make up for the years lost under colonialism of foreign powers in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. A sense of correcting historical injustice and wrongs. This is a missing ingredient in the processes unfolding in Latin America and Africa in the last 25 years. ...

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Adly Mansour, a judge with the Supreme Constitutional Court in Egypt, is appointed by the military as president of Egypt. He was to take office as Chief Justice before the June 2013 protests in Egypt intervened to delay this. On July 3, 2013 he was sworn in as president before the Supreme Court. Mansour is one of two judges selected by president Morsi. He is a graduate of Cairo University, and studied public affairs and management in Paris before joining the judicial sytem in 1977. His decisions as judge went against both Mubarak and Morsi, showing his independent position as a judge on the Supreme Court. The judiciary is now taking an important role in Egypt similar to the role it has played in Pakistan, another Muslim country adopting democratic forms of governance after decades of coups and military rule since the 1950's. The larger Muslim countries in the Middle East, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, and Egypt are faced with the challenge of balancing the demands of modernization with tradition, the demands of educated urban population with the more devout Islamist rural population, and creating stable transitions in democratically elected government. Islamists such as president Erdogan in Turkey who described western democratic forms of government as a train to get to a destination have still to take in to account the need to incorporate opposing secular views in governance. In this sense Turkey is not the model for governance as it once appeared for Egypt, Pakistan Iran and other Muslim countries. A new consensus in society needs to develop that respects all aspects of democratic governance including respect for the role of the opposition in a democracy, the role of an independent impartial judiciary, and the role of independent media. This will take time to develop just as it took time to develop in Europe and North America....

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Carrie Wickham of Emory University describes the struggle between the reformists and the old guard in the Muslim Brotherhood. The old guard, including Morsi, pushed out the reformists. These younger mid-career professionals had a better grasp for the need to broaden the coalition that would run post Mubarak Egypt. Instead sadly for Egypt the old guard botched the transition with a hasty referendum on the constitution, and failing to bring other views and secular parties in a broad coalition to manage post-Mubarak Egypt.

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Some insights into the thinking of Robert Rubin from an interview by Ken Brown and David Enrich with the former Treasury Secretary in the Clinton administration about the 2008 financial crisis. As Justice John Paul Stevens. the longest serving Supreme Court justice on the bench once said, those who administer the judicial system form the backbone of the law. In a like manner those who administer the financial and economic system form its backbone, which is why Rubin faces some tough questions in this interview. At the time he was Treasury Secretary, the NYT magazine ran a story on Robert Rubin, as the kind of person who liked to put things down rationally on a note pad, and think things through on the basis of this rational analysis. This is how he approached the Mexican financial crisis of 1994 and the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Here is some of that note pad Rubin, in the context of CDO's and risk taking, with something gone awry. Risks that according to this NYT report Rubin encouraged at Citigroup in 2004 and 2005, on the basis of the idea that Citi's competitors were taking on more risk and making bigger profits. His note pad approach appears to have led to conclusions by Rubin that considering the additional profits that could be made by Citi by ramping up the risk taking in 2004 and 2005 and afterwards like its competitors, it could lead to losses if things went wrong, but these losses would'nt come close to wiping out the profits made during the good times. The cyclical downturn he expected to see in 2004 and 2005 when he is reported to have added his voice to others that the bank take on more risk, was a cyclical downturn of the type he had seen during the 1994 Mexican devaluation and the 1997 Asian financial crisis. He had no idea that it would be a cyclical undervaluing of risk added on to a housing bubble, and to a triple A ratings issuance that was misguided. Rubin says here that there was hardly anyone who saw that low-probability event as a possibility. Was the housing bubble a low probability event, and were the issuance of ratings by the credit ratings agencies compromised by the drive for more business a normal pattern, or would some digging up of facts and some innate skepticism of the prevailing current in favor of one's own instincts that something was overdone missed in the notepad analysis of a supposedly rational approach? Or was there a feeling that somehow the U.S. with its long tradition of technology, its work ethic and sophisticated financial system was somehow immune to something as severe as what the Asian countries were experiencing in 1997, or what happened in the 1930's. Asked about his view of what happened Rubin says that looking back there was an enormous amount that needs to be learned. Rubin is also in a quandary when he has to respond to the public concerns about excessive executive compensation. Rubin made $115 million in pay since 1999, excluding stock options, while under his purview as the highest ranking board member Citigroup let some of the problems that it faces now accumulate. As Citigroup faces $20 billion in losses in 2008, a bear raid on its stock by short sellers who ironically were able to do this because of some of the lax regulation set in motion in the Rubin Greenspan years leading to the suspension of the Uptick rule, and the $45 billion government bailout last week. Rubin may have helped Citi but in a different sort of way. He was able to persuade Treasury- Treasury Secretary Paulson was a fellow executive at former employer Goldman Sachs- through the days before the bailout, ensuring government help was on its way. Citigroup shares had dropped to $3.77 a share in the third week of November 2008, losing 50% of their value in one week, as the discussions took place. ...

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Afghan warlord of a previous era Hekmatyar is proving difficult to buyout or win over, a strategy pursued with Iraqi insurgents. Younger Taliban insurgents are even harder to convert or buyout. THis raises questions about the chances of this kind of effort succeeding in Afghanistan, especially considering the "allergy" to foreign presence or foreign boots on the ground among Afghan people and the part religious fervour plays. Religious fervour was much less of a factor with Iraqi Sunni insurgents. Add to this the terrain differences, between desert and high mountains, makin the kind of house to house searches and securing of areas extremely difficult.

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Battle at Wamat in 2008 where militants outnumbered an American outpost of 48 soldiers and overran the place in eastern Afghanistan. THe mistakes made and how its part of the new strategy for General McChrystal.

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The Aam Aadmi anti-corruption party led by Arvind Kejrival won 67 of 70 seats for the Delhi legislative assembly. The BJP won 3 seats. In the natonal parliamentary elections of 2014 the BJP led by Mr. Modi won in Delhi and the rest of the country. The Aadmi Party won the election by gaining the votes of ordinary people who were willing to give Kejrival another chance after an earlier stint at governing that lasted a few months. Kejrival's platform is for giving better access to electricity and water to the people of Delhi, and limiting corruption. In 2011-2012 Kejrival was part of the Anna Hazare anti-corruption movement in India that conducted nationwide protests against corrupt officials in the Congress Party led government. Following this effort which led to the election losses of the Congress Party in parliamentary elections, he setup a political party to contest elections on an anti-corruption platform.

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Corruption in the election and democratic process in India.

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Chancellor Merkel tells the newspaper "Sachsische Zeitung," that she sees a follow through on policies on refugees after reestablishing control over EU borders as one of the lessons learned from last years refugee crisis. This has reduced the flow of refugees and Merkel says the process of deportation of non-German nationals who had no residency permit had to be done rigorously and speeded up.  Having said this Merkel defended her policy on refugees as "coherent," and was clear about it- "I do not see a change of course, but coherent work over many, many months." Responding to Pegida and anti-immigrant sentiment in Dresden, Merkel said it is important to remember the lessons of history, that "we are the people" slogan used by the far-right is misplaced, that in a free society "we all are the people."