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One of the major changes coming out of the coronavirus crisis is Germany's new willingness, even a new found enthusiasm, to support  other countries in the European Union. Merkel now supports a shared fund for the EU. Old positions taken for financial discipline for the euro are now placed in a new perspective now that this discipline has largely been achieved. Facing a new situation and a common danger Germany now wants to expand the EU budget and invest "much more." "In coming weeks and months it is important to show that we belong together," says Merkel. There is a realization that Germany cannot be strong industrially and economically, if economies are collapsing around it. Merkel now supports the use of shared funds between EU member states. The health services in all EU countries need to be boosted. The focus of Merkel's EU presidency is now to set up an efficient health system in all EU member states. ...

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Video presented by Gen. Dan Caine on how the Fordow site strike was done in real time. Dan Caine explains why the strikes were effective as Bombs Unit 57 were designed specifically for Fordow and the effort at Fordow is a project of the Threat Reduction Agency in the US War Department, doing this since 2009 when Fordow was being built.

Defense Secretary Hegseth points out that in the media's haste in reporting it had missed a key event at NATO meetings in The Hague, Netherlands. For the first time all EU nations had decided to shoulder their defense responsibilities for Europe. Germany and other nations will put 5% of the budget into defense of Europe.

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Greece's pension system was unraveling even before the crisis. Generous provisions from earlier days of political influence led to early retirement by age 50 for some people. People taking early retirement after the crisis started has increased the number of retirees. The aging population has increased the size of the retirees relative to people working, especially with young people unemployed. About 16% of the GDP of Greece goes to pensions. Early in the crisis the retirement system took a hit of 10 billion euros on the declining value of Greek government bonds, wiping out 60% of reserves. Greece's banks were supported, but the retirement system was further weakened. In 2015 45% of the retirees of 2.6 million live at or below the poverty line, having seen cuts of 35-48% in the pensions since the crisis began. With the changes for retirees pensions of 900 euros a month are now about 700 euros for some of the retirees.

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This NYT editorial brings up the 14-19% tax proposed by U.S. president Obama for overseas profits of U.S. companies. The 5.25% tax in 2005 under the Bush administration for repatriation of about $300 billion did not result in a positive experience says NYT, as most of the money went into dividend payments, share buybacks, and severance for laid off employees. It led to a new surge in unrepatriated profits in the expectation of another tax holiday of this type. A Senate investigation in 2013 showed Apple has $100 billion in Ireland with no tax paid on much of this amount, as cited here. The NYT says Apple shows arrogance in thinking the EU Commission which has taken up cases on tax avoidance of Fiat, Starbucks, Amazon, BASF, would not look at Apple in Ireland. It calls tax deferral on overseas profits as the root of the problem, as it allowed companies initially to look at investment opportunities, but now simply to stash the money abroad till some better tax arrangement can be achieved with U.S. Treasury. The Obama administration proposal was to immediately tax existing profits at 14%, whether repatriated or not, and thereafter at 19% on profits moved offshore. The NYT is in favor of ending corporate tax deferral altogether, and applying taxes on profits in the same year they are made.  ...

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Reforms planned by the administration of prime minister, Naoto Kan. Plans to raise the consumption tax, to make changes to social security, and to commit Japan to join the Trans Pacific Partnership. Japan's business community supports the plan to join the free trade community called the Trans Pacific Partnership. This group consists of USA, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Peru, Chile. South Korea has signed free trade agreements with the USA and the EU, and Japanese business does not want to be left behind.

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This WSJ editorial is critical of the Obama administration's no-show at the march in Paris with millions of people and German chancellor Merkel alongside President Hollande, British prime minister Cameron, Spain's prime minister Rajoy, former president Sarkozy, Donald Tusk, head of the EU. With the far right parties likely to push for anti-immigration policies the European leaders are faced with a challenge to maintain the post war policies of openness and tolerance, bringing together leaders of all major European parties in a show of solidarity.

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Germany is the world's leading exporter, with export of goods generating 41% of GDP, twice the rate in the UK and Japan and 5 times that of the US according to the OECD. With the global slowdown the German government now expects GDP to grow only 0.2% in 2009. And exports are expected to decline in 2009 with a worsening economic situation in most countries. Slowdown in the EU which takes in two thirds of the exports and in the USA will affect these exports.

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The relationship between the southerner finance minister Schauble, and chancellor Merkel from the former East Germany is close, with each depending on the other. The Greece crisis following the referendum, with Schauble's patience with Greece exhausted by July 9, 2015, is reflected in the words he used in February 2015 about the Greece bailout program "ich over", his southwest German accent version of "it's over." In the German parliament Schauble has described the Tsipras government's behaviour as "lacking any rhyme or reason," and Schauble's popularity rating in the ruling CDU party is higher than Merkel in 2015, at over 70%. Schauble is a key CDU member in bringing the CDU's conservative members behind Merkel. This also limits the room Merkel now has in negotiating some last minute deal on Greece before the expiry of the deadline of July 12, 2015. Merkel has also set a higher bar for the negotiation, and a multiyear deal making reforms a high priority. When Schauble says there is no "rhyme or reason" for Syriza party Tsipras's behaviour he may be referring to the EU giving in to Greece's key demand for a change in the surplus targets for 2014-2016. As economists including Krugman point out the surplus is what Greece transfers to its creditors, and additionally with the EU making transfers of about 5% of GNP to Greece according to Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, aside from cuts to pensions as part of pension reforms to return a unsustainable pension system to sustainability, the Greeks had most of what they could expect at this time. The debt is basically being rolled over with EU loans helping pay what is now very low interest, making it an issue that could be tackled at a later stage, say economists, even though Syriza made it an overriding issue in the referendum. Both Schauble, Merkel, and the rest of the CDU, and many Social Democrats including their leader Sigmar Gabriel, find Syriza Tsipras's moves incomprehensible and damaging relations. German experts now see the Eurozone and the Euro currency better off for the future with a Grexit, which also limits what Merkel and Germany can now do....

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The CDU takes 32% of the vote in Saxony down from 39% in 2014, 5 points ahead of the AfD, and he SPD wins in Brandenburg with a 3 point lead over the AfD. The federal government in Berlin is run by a coalition of the CDU and the SPD. The east west divide in Germany clearly shows with the AfD doing well in the former Communist East Germany. People in the east feel that they are "second class citizens" and this plus the migration policy of chancellor Merkel that alienated many including its partner in Bavaria, has given an opening to the AfD that has exploited these divisions. The AfD now has an ultra right wing and both the mainstream parties the CDU of Merkel and the SPD of Willy Brandt campaigned against it. The AfD or Alternative for Germany Party is basically a creation of chancellor Merkel's open migration policy which has affected Europe and may have provided the small margin to the pro-Brexit parties in Britain in the first referendum. The CDU and the SPD now look set to seek new leadership to tackle the problems of infrastructure neglect, the impact of the migration policies in fragmenting politics, increasing inequality, and the policy towards Britain and other states in the EU. ...

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This report in The Times gives an extraordinary look at the man who is prime minister Boris Johnson's key adviser, as chief executive, to get Brexit done or take Britain into a general election. Dominic Cummings, 47 years, was the key strategist for Leave in the first Brexit referendum. He is somewhat of an individual who breaks all conventions and relishes the prospect of doing so. The Times says he has thrown bombs at the establishment including Blair and Cameron for 20 years. He has contempt for the Cabinet Office, Downing Street, the Treasury, and in his view the officials have a misplaced confidence and are not competent. Mr. Cummings is played by Cumberbatch in British Television Channel 4's Brexit: The Uncivil War, which is how Britons know him. In his view one needs to dismantle the existing physical infrastructure of government as a reform priority, says The Times. He has his own reasons having had his confrontations with British ministry officials who repeatedly and often incorrectly cited EU regulations as obstruction for much of what Dominic Cummings wanted to do as Adviser to Michael Gove in the Education ministry. His early beginnings at University mentored by a professor who was a serious opponent of Britain joining the European Union also influenced Cummings.  ...

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The view from the streets of Athens in November 2011, by Landon Thomas, shows Greece teetering on the brink. A situation it appears that is not fully grasped by EU officials who have throughout 2009, 2010 and 2011, acted always lagging far behind new developments and struggled to cope. Greek manufacturing will contract by 6% in 2011, on top of earlier declines. Auto sales have practically ceased and are at the lowest levels since 1993. The number of uninsured drivers increased by 500,000 in just the last 3 months, taking the total to 1.5 million. And small shops in Greece which depend on domestic demand are closing every day. A flood of money is leaving Greece. Since January 2010, Greece's banks have see a loss of $63.5 billion in deposits, 20% of Greece's annual economic output. Greece's bankers estimate that in just the last 2 months, September and October 2011, the numbers jumped to a figure ranging from $13.8 billion to $20.7 billion. The government has imposed value added taxes and a special real estate tax attached to Greek electricity bills, which is further cutting into consumer spending. And the public is blaming the politicians. Any setttlement by a unity government with the EU may be illusory, because the rapid deterioration of the economy would hasten a default. ...

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The euro moves closer to a fiscal union. See the interview with French finance minister Lagarde. This mean conditionalities to loans made to member countries in financial crisis. The Journal editorial asks how readily will the Irish or Spanish people accept conditions, reforms and tax increases set by German and French leaders. EU leaders have decided that the recent change does not require approval in eurozone countries. The option of debt restructuring with longer debt repayment terms and haircuts for investors, with German and French banks accepting losses.

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The Smer-Social Democracy party led by Robert Fico won an absolute majority in the Slovakian parliament. Smer-Social Democracy party won 83 of 150 seats in parliament. The party campaigned on the theme that the austerity measures were too hard on the poorer segments of society, and did not do enough for job creation. Unemployment in Slovakia is at 13%. The shift also marks changing opinion in Hungary, France, and other EU countries about austerity measures and the impact on countries with high unemployment, in the absence of efforts to stimulate job creation.

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IG Metall, the union representing 3 million workers in metals and engineering industries, negotiated a 4.3% wage increase over 13 months. The union had asked for a 6.5% increase. Unions won wage increases of more than 6% in the public and telecommunications sectors. Workers in chemical, agriculture and hotel industries are pushing for increases of over 6%. The union wage negotiations help set the pattern for wage increases for the 41 million employed workers in Germany. This will help France and other EU countries close the gap with Germany in wages and improve competitiveness.

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Portugal's statistics agency showed GDP growth was 1.1% higher in the second quarter of 2013 compared with the first quarter. GDP level was still 2% below the level in 2012. Exports were up 6.3% in the second quarter. Half of exports were from sale of refined petroleum products. Unemployment declined in the second quarter of 2013 to 16.4% from 17% in the first quarter. Portugal is continuing negotiations with the EU to soften austerity cuts planned for 2013-2014. The current budget deficit target is 4% in 2014 down from 6.4% in 2012.

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The European Commission predicts a long and deep recession. In 2009 even with government spending that would add about 0.75% to GDP growth the economies of the EU would shrink by 1.8%, and the 16 countries that use the euro shrink by 1.9%. A jobs loss of 3.5 million jobs is expected. Falling exports mean Germany would see GDP shrink by 2.3%, Britain by 2.8% and France by 1.8%. The downswing will be protracted in Spain and worse in countries like Britain and Ireland where there is a high degree of consumer indebtedness.

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This WSJ report on critical analysis of coronavirus data has a very useful chart of Estimated Range of Symptomatic Cases Reported by Country. Complete coronavirus data for all symptomatic persons who have the coronavirus infection is lacking in most countries. Many people in large populations have symptoms and are positive but are not reflected in the official data collection. This is a big problem as the total number of cases are understated by a magnitude of twice to five times the numbers reported in official tally.   South Korea has done a good job of getting more of the symptomatic people with the infection in its data, as about 53% to 90% of such persons are reflected in official data. Next comes Germany at a range of 38% to 55%.  China comes third and has about 28% to about 38% of such persons reflected in its data, the U.S. currently on April 4 at about 14% to 19%, according to this chart in the WSJ. The source for this is Mathematical Modeling Center at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. What this means is that the US. number of cases at 278,000  reported infected people with symptoms (April 4) is only 14% to 19% of the true number. Another way to say this is that the actual infected persons with symptoms is about 5 times what is reported, or over 1 million not the 278,000 reported.  As happens for China data collection agencies may never get the true number. To be comparable to the Chinese numbers, as the U.S. is a large country, the figure closer to the true numbers would be twice the 278,000 reported or over half a million symptomatic infections of coronavirus in the U.S. Why is this data important. With widespread testing as in South Korea one gets data that tells one how many people are infected (the size of the problem) and therefore the resources needed and the point of greatest impact. Also it tells one the typical transmission rate per person, and it helps hospitals in each area know what to expect and what resources are needed to prepare- not find people suddenly turn up in the E.R. in unpredictable numbers. The lack of widespread testing and better reporting in the data to get a grip on the pandemic is shown in this chart for countries hardest hit, less than 5-6% for Italy and Spain. The UK and France at 5-8%.   ...

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ECB president, Mario Draghi, is interviewed at his office in Frankfurt by the Wall Street Journal's Blackstone, Karnitschnig, and Thomson. Draghi quotes economist Rudi Dornbusch, who told him in the old days that the Europeans were rich enough to afford paying for it if everybody didn't work. Draghi, was head of the Bank of Italy, before becoming president of the ECB. He is acutely aware of the problems faced by Italy and other countries like Spain which have let labor markets become rigid, with extensive job protections and generous benefits for the unemployed. The result is that employers are reluctant to hire and young people face high unemployment rates- as high as 50% in Spain. For this reason Draghi sees the old social model in Europe as obsolete and already out. Draghi's sees austerity measures and spending cuts with the structural changes underway in Spain, Italy and other countries as the only way to generate economic renewal. On the Long Term Financing Operation launched by the ECB in Dec. 2011, Draghi says there was agreement within the ECB and the decision was unanimous. He makes it one of his objectives to achieve as much consensus as he can, to do what is right for Europe and to do it together with his colleagues in the ECB and the EU. That financing operation, and the binding deficit controls achieved at a recent summit of European leaders, he sees as all part of the pathway to fiscal union. ...

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The SNP Scottish party and the Liberal Democrats favor early elections and will push for this in parliament. The thinking is that both parties can do better in an election before Brexit is passed. A You.Gov poll for The Times shows only one person in five or 19% see the EU withdrawal deal negotiated by Boris Johnson as "a good deal." SNP, and Lib Democrats say this means voters will vote for parties with clear for or against positions on Brexit including the Independence Party of Nigel Farage. Both SNP and Lib Democrats are for Remain. Labour Party under Corbyn is divided on how quickly to go into another election. The Tories under Boris Johnson are relying on polls showing they are leading by 10 points yet this can change as Theresa May faced a similar situation and called for an early election which led to losing its majority.  Experts on BBC say a December election is highly unusual and most unpredictable, posing big risks for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives particularly now with Johnson advisor Cummings tactics dividing the party. ...

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Empowering people and civil society was the main goal of En Marche movement founded by Emmanuel Macron. As president Macron has governed in the presidential style of De Gaulle, creating dissatisfaction. Macron is criticized for centralizing power and decision making process so that the style of governing is in sharp contrast to the way En Marche draws on grass roots support. En Marche itself was critical of how the older politicians had governed France. The Interior Minister and Environment Minister resigned with the Environment Minister saying he felt "all alone" in government. This is happening as the European Union election is approaching with the poll numbers of Macron dropping to about 26%. Marie Le Pen's RN is ahead of Macron's En Marche for the first time in polls taken in November 2018 for the May 2019 European Union elections. The think tank Friends of Europe shows 41 percent of French respondents in a survey saying life would be the same without the EU, while only 21 percent thought it would be worse.    ...

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As Katya Adler of BBC explains here Catalonia's crisis is less about independence than about populism. Catalonia is already one of the most autonomous regions in Spain. Catalans want to be able to choose their future with dignity, yet on independence opinion is divided in Catalonia. Prime Minister Rajoy has not handled the crisis well says Adler, when he had many things in his favor including EU support and support under the Constitution. Police action and the negative coverage have hurt Spain. Adler also points out that Rajoy and Puigdemont may be doing this for political purposes to increase their support. Rajoy's government failed to win support for the 2018 budget as it is a minority government with thin support in parliament. Puigdemont may also have overreacted and called the referendum  without considering this carefully. and having a realistic plan. Both politicians are criticized for corruption in their parties. Catalonia wants to see more investment and revenues sent back to its region from taxes sent to the federal government making financial issues prominent more than grievances about use of Catalan language. ...

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GE Vernova turbine maker Ford Motor and Dollar General retail replace Apple Tesla Google in stock market growth in June 2025. This is a healthy sign for the US economy.

Lower growth of 0.8% in the first two quarters was expected as the US recalibrates its position in the world economy as a manufacturing powerhouse. Inflation is moderate even with tariffs says Fed chairman Powell -close to 2.4-2.8 percent. Unemployment is low, with no layoffs and companies waiting to invest with the 3B Big Bold Beautiful Tax Cuts Bill provisions on expensing investments 100 percent provision. The attention is not on tariffs as agreements with UK will be followed by EU and Japan. Attention is on the Tax Cuts Bill compromise of Senate and House versions.