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Its incorrect to call a loan that has only slightly lower, same or higher monthly payment after modification, a loan modification. The intent is to make a loan affordable in monthly payments for the borrower, for it to be a meaningful modification. Says Tom Miller, the Attorney General of Iowa, "it should'nt be called modifications if people pay more or approximately the same." Many lenders and banks do not want to have to mark to market a whole set of loans of one type in one geographical region, as an accounting rule now requires, just because they have modified one loan of that type, because their reserves are severely depleted and most are already or nearly insolvent. So their way of discouraging loan modifications as a solution is to respond by saying that loans go into foreclosure even after modification, when the modification they are talking about is tacking on interest penalties and fees that accelerate the home into foreclosure in some cases, and in others by leaving payments higher or the same make foreclosure just as likely as before. Tom Miller, attorney general of Iowa, also says that " if you do real modifications, the default rate is significantly lower." Some mortgage companies say that default rates drop significantly, some to as low as 25%, when loan payments are reduced to the 30-40% of borrower income range, which is becoming the standard for a meaningful modification. Analyst Ron Dubitsky's research at Credit Suisse confirms this, showing lower payments reduced defaults to less than 50%. Research by Credit Suisse and Alan White, a law professor at Valparaiso University also show that at this time loan, 2 years into the foreclosure crisis, modification has mostly resulted in higher monthly payments. White says banks like Wells Fargo, a large servicer of loans, have done have modified few loans as apercentage of their delinquent mortgages. Sheila Bair and others have long advocated reducing loan payments to 30-40% of monthly income since early 2007, because foreclosure is costlier for banks than loan modification, but met resistance from the banks and lenders and their lobbying groups. The relevant question is that if the banks are misquided in pursuing this course, and its not in the interests of the banks or the country's economy- because accelerating foreclosures or not taking modification action in the middle of a huge wave of layoffs may result in a even bigger wave of foreclosures that threaten housing prices and effectively leave banks insolventleading to nationalization- then what purpose did all this serve except to exacerbate the crisis and increase the price tag of the government's and country's ultimate rescue of homeowners?...

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The director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Cai Fang predicts that by 2009 there would be a widespread shortage of workers, pushing up industrial wages. Figures from the UN Population Division show that China's working age population will decline in the years ahead. There are two things here that matter. The millions of people in a socalled surplus labor force that can be tapped so that industry can hire more people expand and grow without wage inflation, and second the working age population 20-29, younger people being preferred by employers for the long hours, single people who can stay in dorms and can be mobile to move near factories and do not have the restrictions of married people with children. The one child policy has limited the growth of the working age population. After rising by 1.3% a year according to the UN Population Division during the decade to 2005, the population of working age is expected to increase at an annual rate of 0.7% until 2015, and then shrink by 0.1% ayear until 2025. The surplus labor pool figures estimates vary from 150 million people to 200 million people, but the Economist estimates the true figure to be much smaller because government figures for the rural labor force include millios of migrants already in the cities and others working in rural industry not farming. The population of workers in ages 20-29 fell from 233 million in 1990 to 165 million in 2005. Because of this shrinking of supply of eligible labor especially considering the preference of textile and electronics firms to hire young women because they complain less and put up with long hours and for single men preferred by construction firms, Cai Fang believes that this preferred or eligible labor pool is shrinking to the point where it will be a problem in the years ahead. This will have the impact of shrinking the growth rate to around 7% sometime after 2009. Problems that remained under cover because of the Olympics will also become evident as 2008 winds down. Some experts argue that there are other factors that will contine to sustain the pool of available workers, but its this pool of preferred available workers that will be in short supply according to Cai Fang. ...

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Obesity in the US is as high as about 40% in West Virginia, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. It is lowest about 25% in Colorado, Vermont and Hawaii. About 22 states have obesity rate over 35%. Compare this with China which is seeing obesity increase from about 15% in 2023 to 20% in 2034. Real competition between the two countries starts with areas like health care coming out of the pandemic when looking at the true interest of both peoples instead of geopolitics creating a huge distraction from problems of health, climate change and education. Meat intake has tripled in China and a return to more vegetable and fruits and ancient grains is something that is needed badly, also helping tackle climate change. The states in the South and midwestern US have higher rates of obesity followed by northeast and western states. This includes in the South Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Mississippi, Arkansas. In Midwest it includes Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas. It is useful to note that this is in Voice of America news which is aimed at an overseas audience and this kind of information is not seen widely in US media. Robust food programs ae needed especially for people living in poverty. Health consciousness needs to be emphasized in all aspects of life and worklife, workspaces, living locations and transportation options all need to be devised around this. Bussel of the Robert Woods Foundation says even ten years back no state had over 35% of the population being obese. Clearly headed in the wrong direction with all the discussion in media run by billionaires on everything but what most affects the quality and ease of living of ordinary people. ...

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The US booster vaccine drive is lagging behind as only 30% of Americans fully vaccinated have taken the booster vaccine, according to CDC. Only half of Americans over ager 65 have taken the booster shot. In New York City only 1.5 million Americans out of 8 million have taken the booster vaccine. This report in NYT shows Dr. Oshita's 3 urgent care clinics in Sacramento, California, and no rush of people to get the booster vaccine. It is scary, he says, of the lack of a rush of people into the vaccine centers. This is happening as the new omicron variant is spreading.

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Cecilia Wang of Taiwanese parents with student visas in the 1970's calls it an 128 year American tradition, but is it really the case that it was one individual case for Chinese immigrant Wang Kim in 1998 case before the US Supreme Court where it made sense for the Court to let Wang Kim stay, just as it makes sense for someone in the country for over 10 years to stay in Britain. Birthright citizenship is something else entirely and history shows that forget birthright citizenship for Asians- for most of the 19th century and over half of the twentieth century till the 1960's American public and Congress opposed any form of immigration from Asia. It was only under John F. Kennedy who was Irish, had served in the Pacific in Asia, that the idea of giving Asians citizenship was given credibility and acceptance with the American public and in the US Congress.  Without JFK and LBJ this opening for Asian immigrants coming legally in large numbers for education would never have happened, not under Nixon-Ford-Reagan-Bush. And the modernization of Asia, of Japan, China, now India could not have happened without knowledge of new technologies in American universities gathered by these visitors who were also allowed to work and stay legally. For this reason common sense is a more valuable way to approach this. Misuse and misrepresentation would only create the feeling that Asian Americans- who have integrated into the fabric of America and whose sons and daughters have benefitted the most from the gracious invitation of JFK and LBJ- who are mostly highly educated and can draw on the best economic opportunities the Nation has to offer, want to see their own interests only, and not the Nation as a whole as it struggles to bring a improvement in the lives of the have-nots in today's society, the less educated, the low income workers often immigrants from Latin American countries, those struggling to make ends meet in this economy. ...

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The message to the US from Jackson, Mississippi which shut off its water for fears from aging infrastructure is that the US needs to replace its aging pipes and pumps. Short term patches are not the solution and don't work. Half of the 1600 miles of water main that distribute water through New Orleans are over 80 years old. In Santa Cruz, California, a single pipe goes from the reservoir to the city, with no backup. President Biden has allocated $55 billion for safe drinking water- the actual need is $1 trillion says the American Water Works Association. This WSJ report looks at the problem in different parts of the US.

 

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Most of the provinces vote in favor of Milei including Cordoba and Mendoza, Salta and SantaFe. Only Buenos Aires province and two other provinces vote in favor of Sergio Massa, the Peronist candidate. Milei wins by 56% to Massa's 46%. The election is affected by the Peronist party president Fernandez's failure to control inflation that has reached 140%. La Nacion points out that most voters are angry at the political and economic reality, and are not voting for an ideology. In April 2020 one US dollar was worth 80 pesos, in 2023 it is 1000 pesos. Argentine has a chronic problem- repeated bouts of high inflation over 4 decades.

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This editorial in the WSJ after the U.S. presidential election is critical of extreme positions on immigration in the Republican party. It reminds readers that George W. Bush won 40% of the Hispanic vote with some passable Spanish and a friendly attitude on immigration, Romney managed only 29%. It says supporting immigration is a natural position for Republicans because most immigrants are culturally conservative and hard working. It call deportation in large numbers morally wrong and not workable. It also comes as immigration from Mexico is down significantly and many Hispanics are returning to Mexico. Hispanics suffered from the high unemployment in the U.S. following the 2008 crisis making it less attractive to come to the U.S. Growth is also increasing in Mexico with a large middle class and a falling birth rate.

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A German reporter questions the value of the G20 meetings following the violence on streets at the last Hamburg meeting. He says the first G20 during the global financial crisis was useful but later meetings have not lived up to the hope for discussion and search for solutions to world problems. Global trade is at the top of the agenda following the tariffs dispute between China and the U.S. Divergent interests of participants are a problem. Would going back to G-7 in private meetings be a solution asks this reporter.

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Questions are being raised about the lack of fairness in the cuts imposed in Greece - and the IMF acknowledges this- where the minimum wage was cut by 22%, but the most highly paid civil servants had their salaries cut by 10%. Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schauble told the German daily newspaper Der Tagesspiegel: "I really feel for the people of Greece. The vast majority now hard-hit by reform and austerity measures... can do nothing about the backup in reforms, the loss of competitiveness and the unproductive use of funds in the past." In Greece there is a separate wage scale for the highly paid public sector employees such as doctors, diplomats, professors, and uniformed personnel in the military and police. This is different from what the ministry bureaucrats, hospital support staff and local government administrators get paid. This group took only a 10% cut, even though it makes up one third of the payroll according to IMF and EU estimates. The cuts to the minimum wage were made to improve Greece's competitiveness and because in Greece during the last decade wages went up much higher compared to Germany. Brian Carney pointed out in a Journal article Feb. 14, 2012, that nominal private sector labor costs went up by 62% in Greece from 2000-2008 compared to 15% in Germany. Showing the nature of the fight to make the cuts more equitable, is the resistance to the IMF-EU insistence on cuts to the highest pensions which amounted to $178 million. In the end prime minister Papademos said the monthly pension of $1975 was reduced by $32 or 1.6%. The lack of fairness creates more uncertainty about the cuts as elections are expected in April, only 7-8 weeks from now, and fears that this may not hold when a new government is elected. For this reason the IMF-EU officials are considering putting the $170 billion bailout money in an escrow account....

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The current trade disputes and negotiations between the European Union and the U.S. are leading to European carmakers looking again at their supply chains to come up with ways of increasing manufacturing autos in the U.S. Daimler CEO Zetsche says Mercedes Benz will increase engine manufacturing in the U.S. BMW CEO Kruger says the USMCA agreement as the new NAFTA is called, will accelerate investments in manufacturing in the U.S.- more U.S. production for the U.S. market.

The USMCA require at least 75% of car's value built in the U.S. up from 62%. Also 40-45% of the car has to be made at wages of at least $16 per hour. The cap for cars made in Canada and Mexico and exported to the U.S. is 5.2 million with 4.1 million currently shipped into the U.S. Any cars over this or not qualifying with the rules pay a tariff of 2.5%.

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This report in the Economist points to the improved situation for Mexico after the scare from Trump's plans to build the wall and deport large numbers of immigrants. The peso dropped by 15% between mid November 2016 and January 2017, but has since recovered, and non-oil exports were up 5.5% in February 2017 over prior year with the manufacturing growth in the U.S.  Growth forecasts are now up from about 1% GDP growth previously to 2% for 2017, close to the 2.3% in 2016. Much of the change in mood in Mexico is a result of the failure of the early travel bans being blocked in the courts, the failure to get health care legislation through Congress, and the effort by the trade advisers and economic advisers around Trump to move Trump's positions more to the centre and closer to traditional Republican party positions. Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, says " a sensible agreement" can be reached with Mexico. Peter Navarro, trade adviser, talks about making "a mutually beneficial regional powerhouse." Robert Lighthizer, a veteran from the Reagan days, is likely to be made the new U.S. Trade representative. Still as the Economist points out the "20% border adjustment tax" continues to be supported by Paul Ryan in Congress to pay for tax cuts. But certainly the mood has lifted in Mexico in the first 100 days. This is true for economic policy in relation to China and Germany, and the close circle of Ross, National Economic Council head Gary Cohn, and Secretary of State Tillerson is moving Trump to the centre in policy statements to get things done. Mexico is faced with internal challenges of reestablishing the rule of law, improving infrastructure, reducing red tape and corruption, addressing problems in the education system, to promote economic growth. These challenges may prove to be as large as the external challenges were once thought to be. ...

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Seib of the WSJ compares the Reagan election in 1980 with Trump's bid in 2016. He finds the idea of an outsider when the public mood was for change favoring Trump, but says the comparison with Reagan falls short because Reagan had behind him 8 years as governor of the largest state in the country, and a bid for the nomination 4 years earlier. He also had personal positive approval ratings of about 70 percent compared to 27 percent for Trump.  Reagan's first trp after the convention in 1980 was to Alabama to win the support of George Wallace people in the Deep South. His focus was on reuniting all parts of the Republican Party something absent in 2016. Seib's comment about Trump being stronger on the economy is not clear. With the economy recovering, and slowing down as the presidential election approaches amid increasing uncertainty, it is possible that voters would not want to risk abrupt and sudden changes with an untested candidate. Working class voters could still see some of their concerns for change addressed by the Bernie Sanders part of the Democratic platform with help in college tution, addressing wage concerns, and opposing export of jobs, when Trump's program gives few specifics. Another difference between Reagan and Trump is that Reagan had put together an economic team under Shultz which was able to win credibility with an actual plan to implement in the first 100 days. ...

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About 680,000 homeowners applied for the Home Affordability Modification Program, or HAMP, and had their loans modified so that their mortgage payments are reduced. This is only one in four of the 2.7 millon homeowners who tried to to join the program. This according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data released by the Treasury Department. In 2009 the Obama administration launched the program to reverse the rising home foreclosures in the U.S., by reducing the monthly mortgage payments through lower interest rates and extending the term of loans. About $75 billion was estimated as the cost of the program at the time. Only $1 billion of this has been spent by the Obama administration. The program offered payments to 100 mortgage servicers as inducement to complete loan modifications. About half the applicants or 1.3 million were declared ineligible from the beginning, and the program used stricter qualification criteria than loan modification programs offered by individual banks. Applicants were rejected because the necessary paperwork was not submitted or it was lost by the mortgage company- 266,000 falling in this category. An additional 770,000 homeowners who started the program were later disqualified mostly for the paperwork and eligibility problems, with only a small number rejected for failing to make trial payments. Mortgages less than 31% of pretax income were considered affordable and considered ineligible-255,000 were in this category. Over 80% of homeowners in the southern states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee, received no loan modification....

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The inspiring story of Joan Poh, only the second rower to compete for Singapore in an Olympics. She rises at 5 am to workout as she also works as a nurse in a 10 hour shift at Tan Tock Seng Hospital. She has missed meals as she does her training in the midst of work as a nurse. She returned to working in nursing after a call from Singapore government for frontline medical workers in April of 2020. She sees sport as a dream, a luxury that one has to work for. Puts in 100% as a nurse and when rowing 100% as a rower.  At 5 foot 5 inches, 30 years old,  she is much smaller than other rowers, and uses her technique and training to compete. She is the oldest of 3 children who grew up in a 1 room apartment in Singapore. Without resources she learned to row on a long boat by joining a dragon boat rowing team when she was 17, then learned to scull in 2015 at age 25. In 2019 she took extended leave from her hospital to train for the Olympics in Australia. A Canadian who won Olympic Bronze in 1996 and 2000 coaches her free from Vancouver Island in Canada, using videos and workout programs, and went to Singapore when Poh qualified for the Olympics to train her in person. She looks at competing not just as medal winning, and sees this as one step in building a team in the right direction. She sees creating opportunities for others, and overcoming her childhood situation growing up struggling for resources. She says early on it was for her not wanting her lack of resources to decide what she could do. As she puts it - to always aim for a strong start even though one started with not such a good start. ...

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Delta Airlines has one of the oldest fleet of planes in the U.S. Delta is turning this into a strategic move by having to invest less in new planes and with the ability to get good flight performance from older planes with proper maintenance. Delta says it is saving about $1 billion by acquiring 49 MD-90 planes with age of about 13 years from China Southern and other global airlines, compared to the cost of buying new planes. The estimate is that it is about 10% cheaper per seat to run these planes than new 737's, when the cost of buying planes is figured in. It also took over the leases for 88 Boeing 717's with average age of 11 years from Southwest. The focus at Delta is on profitability and debt reduction by selecting routes carefully, avoiding unprofitable ones, using tight cost management. Delta is on its third year of making profits and is on plan for reducing its debt from $17 billion in 2009 to $10 billion by 2013. The older Delta fleet is also the most punctual of the large airlines in the U.S., with 86.3% of flights on time in the Jan-Sept. 2012 period. Fitch Ratings raised Delta's credit ratings to B-plus and says Delta is "the strongest player in the much improved airline industry in the U.S."...

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Automobile parts imports into the U.S. have increased from $89 billion in 2008 to $138 billion in 2014, up from only $31.7 billion in 1990. In a huge shift in wages with increasing global competition wages at an American Axle plant in Michigan at $10 an hour are about what Target stores and Wal-mart pay for retail workers. An new generation of workers in manufacturing are seeing a shift from being in the middle class during their parents generation to lower class, with this downward pressure on wages as parts are manufactured in places such as Mexico and China.

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The Washington Post points out the astounding fact that given a choice Japanese voters would have chosen as the new prime minister, Seiji Maehara, who has a 40% approval rating in a recent poll. Instead finance minister Yoshihiko Noda was chosen by 398 Democratic Party of Japan legislators. His approval rating? Below 5%! The ruling DPJ has a 18% approval rating, and the Liberal Democratic Party has a 15% approval rating! It is interesting to note that a similiar situation exists in other major Asian democracies. In India the ruling Congress party coalition and the opposition parties are deeply unpopular because of a series of corruption scandals involving both parties. In Singapore the ruling party barely scraped through in elections. Many of the Asian democracies have an aging leadership and a new generation of effective leaders has not appeared to make the transition.

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Share of mortgages at least 30 days past due declined to 6.39% in the 4th quarter 2013, down from 7.09% a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Foreclosure inventory declined to 2.9% for 4th quarter 2013. Three fourths of the troubled loans are from the period before 2007. The improved economic situation and lower unemployment has helped. Also helping is the increase in prices, with home prices up 8.4% in Dec. 2013 over the prior year, according to Black Knight Financial Services. The price increase has reduced the number of homes "under water"- owing more than the homes are worth- from 19% in Jan 2013 to 11.4% in October, according to Black Knight. Banks have also tightened their lending practices. The progress is uneven with California and Arizona, some of the worst hit states doing better in 2013. Judicial states such as New York and Florida, where courts have to approve foreclosure by banks, are making gradual improvement. About 1.5% of California homes were in foreclosure by the end of 2013, compared to 8.5% in Florida, according to MBA. In 2014 price improvements are expected to slow, and the 10% of homes in various stages of delinquency or foreclosure still remain as a hangover from the housing crisis that slows U.S. economic recovery....

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The lessons from Italy, the epicenter now of the coronavirus pandemic, are clear- act early and decisively, impose quarantines and lockdown quickly to prevent intermingling. These steps need to be put early, with absolute clarity, and strictly enforced. This report in the NYT shows how decisive action early is the only way to prevent the crisis from becoming a large one that threatens the health system and millions. German states such as Bavaria and others now have a $25,000 euro and some have jail time. Singapore has jail time and fines for violating the stay home quarantine orders which it imposes after contact tracing. Taiwan has similar measures. Enforcement and strict control are part of the tools that have worked in these places and in China, South Korea.  Britain has still to close flights from Iran, Italy, which The Times reports on March 20 are still landing at Heathrow. This is after the U.S. weeks earlier banned flights from China, Iran, Italy, and last week from Europe after EU nations failed to take action early.  ...

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David Smith, Economics Editor of The Times, says history is repeating itself now that the Labour Party thinks it should not have abolished Clause 4 of its constitution under Tony Blair ( the common ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange). Now that Labour's policies for renationalisation of water, transport and other basic services are popular, it appears that we are seeing a response from people fed up with market failure and greed in the way the private companies in these services are run.  Profits should go to taxpayers for basic public services and that salaries of management should be moderate, services efficient, and borrowing of capital done at lower rates, is the idea behind this. The Times You.Gov poll on renationalisation for rail shows 56% supporting, only 22% opposing, renationalisation of energy companies supported by 45%, 29% opposed, water companies 50% supporting and 25% opposed. In addition to this other Labour policies of 45% tax rate for incomes above 80,000 pounds, and 50% at 123,000 pounds, as well as wealth tax are also popular. Workers on company boards with ownership of a portion of company equity are also popular. This adds to the mystery about Labour's lack of strong support going into the election. Support for renationalisation comes from the thirst for change, says The Times. Market failures, greed, inequality and poor delivery of essential public services, severe cuts in the last decade, all play a role in the thirst for change. There is also the idea that when it comes to essential services there is no room for profit or owners and managers with huge pay running into millions. When trains are overcrowded or unreliable run by private companies economic arguments remain for the textbooks, its daily experience that counts. Going back to a time in the past when it worked, where economic structures were based on fairness, and people cared, is seen as an alternative to a dysfunctional period.     ...

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Fox News and WSJ are taking differing positions on Epstein case with Fox News ignoring it and the WSJ carrying the story. Murdoch and DJT have a complicated relationship in July 2025 following the $10 billion DJT lawsuit against Murdoch filed in late July after a story in the WSJ. WSJ parent company Dow Jones says it stands by the story and will defend the accuracy of its reporting. Both the DJT Republicans and the Fox News network appeal to conservative viewers of television, and people in business. WSJ has carried stories questioning the tariff policies of the president, and is critical. It is also not fully supportive of policies to handle migrants. Fox News another Murdoch news outlet is through programs like "Hannity" supporting the president and DJT supports it. This creates a dichotomy in the support when DJT and Republicans are putting forward an agenda that is moving fast on the economy, migration, crime, and world trade requiring support to keep the conservative groups together in the US. This is not a situation encountered before as the nation is moving to a crossroads in which direction it should take. And this does not even take up the issues of climate protection which will come up, and of pharmaceutical companies overcharging Americans for healthcare, other battles that will take place.   ...

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Critics say China uses debt trap diplomacy in Africa through its infrastructure investment projects. Silja Frohlich of DW.com speaks to Eric Olander of the non-partisan China Africa Project to make an assessment of what is happening. Olander says Africa is facing a demographic change of immense proportions with about a billion people that are being added by 2025. For African leaders what are their options- do they build the infrastructure that would lead to the industrialization that creates jobs for all these people, even as they use their children's future to borrow vast sums of money. Global and private markets would charge 7 times the interest that the Chinese are charging, says Olander. China has built roads, railways, bridges, hospitals, and other infrastructure for which there was not enough financing from other countries. Since the Belt and Road Initiative was launched 5 years ago it has built four new railways- the Mombasa-Nairobi railway, Addis Ababa-Djibouti (759 kms), Abuja- Kaduna (186 kms) and Angola's Benguela railway (1866 kms). China has also helped Africa to develop its options with alternative sources of investment helping it negotiate new investments from different sources as Kenya and Uganda are doing today.  At the conference in 2019 in Beijing President Xi offered cancellation of interest till 2018 for loans to Ethiopia. A new effort to introduce transparency and improve terms and offer debt forgiveness is underway to change China's image for investment in Africa. Olander sees China making a solid contribution over the past 10 years funded by Chinese money. ...

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Consumer electronics from the large flat panel tv which consumes more electricity than arefrigerator to other consumer electronics products, take up 15% of household electricity demand. But there are no standards for them that will reduce consumption. These standards were set up for refrigerators and have reduced consumptioon by 45% between 1990 when the standards were set till today. Washers have reduced consumption by 70%. The demand from these gadets will triple over the next 2 decades says the Intenational Energy Agency, making greenhouse gas emissions reduction more difficult. To satisfy growing demand 560 coal fired plants will be needed.

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In December 2010 and January 2011 fuel prices went up 40% after Iran blocked fuel tankers at the border crossing. After the blockade ended prices still are high compared to before December. The price of wheat went up 80% worldwide with drought conditions and floods in wheat growing areas of the world. Floods in Pakistan have made things worse for food supplies and prices. With a third of Afghanistan's people living below the poverty line this creates huge pressures for higher wages. With the lack of government revenues from taxes the budget is mainly financed by donor countries.