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To the critics of Fed assuming risks of $30 billion for Bear Stearns risks in its assets this report says the Fed may end up making some money on this as Bear Stearns went at distress prices.

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This article in Spanish calls on president Santos and former president Uribe to bridge their differences and take the peace process forward in Colombia. This follows the "no" vote in the referendum on the agreement reached in peace talks with FARC. Only 38% of the voters voted in the referendum and the vote was 50.2% against and 49.8% in favor of the peace agreement.

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The stimulus checks in government pandemic aid packages are being spent prudently in the US. Government aid checks were sent out in the first wave since March 2020 and now again in the second wave in 2021. The stimulus pandemic checks are being allocated wisely. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study shows that Americans saved about 36% of the first stimulus payment checks, 29% was spent, and 35% was used to pay down debt. For the second stimulus payment underway in 2021 this survey also shows Americans are expected to spend even less and use even more to pay down debts. With stores mostly closed, travel restricted, and consumers not having the opportunities to spend, and the sense of insecurity, additional income from unemployment checks, saving has increased. Americans saved $1.4 trillion in the first 9 months of 2020 compared to half that in the same period in 2019, according to analysis by Berenberg Economics. That amount is about 10% of household spending. The tight spending during 2020 means, say economic researchers, that spending will jump in 2021 after the vaccination drive. The trend is positive in that Americans tended not to save enough. People in China and India, tend to save more giving government a larger pool of savings to draw from in national infrastructure spending. In November 2020 Commerce Department estimate is that saving in the U.S. was 12.9%, up from 7.5% in November 2019. Anecdotal evidence shows U.S. savings accounts for people at the lower end of incomes have been depleted for years, hit by the unemployment of the 2009 recession. This was caused by errors by the banking community and business. To this is added people in arts and culture, people in professions involving contact, travel and leisure, food, during this pandemic ten years later. National priorities need to be set to bolster this part of American society and its core social fabric. The steps to bring home manufacturing jobs under Mr. Trump and the "Buy American" initiative under Mr. Biden is just the first step. More steps are needed and the resources, implementation and drive to bring America back to the healthy society of social cohesion and upward mobility aspirations under presidents Truman and Eisenhower in the 1950's. ...

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This WSJ picture essay report from Afghanistan shows life in different provinces, and the road north from Kabul to Herat on the Iranian border. It says that while the Taliban restrict freedoms, the end of the fighting brings peace to the countryside so long plagued by war, and relief for Afghans from endless war.  It also is year of a severe drought that is expected to cripple agriculture, the worst since 1980. It was just this kind of drought in 1972 that crippled agriculture leading to a famine in the country under King Zahir Shah. For some 300 years since 1700 the British kept foreign powers out of the British Empire's surrounding regions including Afghanistan and Tibet. That drought led to the King's brother-in-law taking control of the country in 1974, conducting a repression of Communist leaders who responded by action inside the military leading to 2 communist factions inside the military taking control. These factions fought for control and invited the Soviets into the country with a friendhship treaty. India under prime minister Indira Gandhi had just fought a war in 1971 to set up a free nation of Bangladesh out of the old East Bengal. It had to deal with millions of refugees from Bangladesh in 1971-72 when these changes were taking place in Afghanistan. British policy had maintained peace for so long but Indira Gandhi was not aware of the dangers from the ousting of a king who had ruled since 1933 and the wars that followed. Bringing Russia into Afghanistan after centuries of peace led to the first error America made fighting a proxy war in Afghanistan under the Reagan policy. After a brief period following a ten year struggle and withdrawal of Russia, the US entered Afghanistan in a 20 year conflict which led to the withdrawal this year. President Biden finally ended the war saying Afghanistan had never been united in its history. Because of the far flung provinces and mountainous terrain, the nature of the country, this is correct. It is also a graveyard of empires which is why the British carefully, rigorously carried out a policy of no foreign powers in Afghanistan and Tibet, both neighboring India, ensuring peace since 1700. ...

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Sebarros of the WSJ takes a closer look at the key words used by U.S. president Trump in rallies in city after city during the 2016 election campaign and in the months before the Congressional elections in 2018. Analysis by the WSJ counted the unique two word phrases, how often Trump highlighted topics, the content of audience respones in 48 post election rally speeches through Oct 27.  In 2018 the words "tax cuts,"fake news," and "health care," appeared more often than in 2017 after the Republican party's win in passing a tax cut. Other phrases used frequently were "law enforcement," "North Korea," and "Supreme Court" after the win in nominating Judge Kavanaugh. The use of the 2 word phrases are carefully done. The words "fake news" were not used during sensitive periods such as when pipe bombs were mailed to government offices, yet resumed few weeks later. His own name is the seventh most used word, even for someone such as Mr. Trump, showing that behind the impromptu remarks there is a carefully worded effort to steer voters in a particular direction with carefully developed appeals. Another example is when the Dow Jones averages were reaching new highs in September and October Mr. Trump highlighted the stock market growth, and then when volatility increased by November said much less on this topic. Graphs by Jessica Wang provide a good look at how frequently and in what manner Mr. Trump has continued his unique campaigning style before the 2018 Congressional elections, with two word appeals to already receptive audiences. The audience participation is a singular feature and the words "U.S.A." were used in 85% of the rallies with "Build that Wall" at 65% as the next most frequent.  Much of it is repetitive in city after city and the WSJ analysis shows that the major television networks including Fox News are not covering the speeches from beginning to end as they did before, only C-Span public network does. To receptive audiences in carefully scripted surroundings, including larger ones such as the Toyota Center Houston, where larger numbers of supporters worried about immigration, health care, trade, and other issues can come together, president Trump has rallied core supporters with this kind of appeal. ...

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GM sells just 30,000 Cadillacs in China. It is one of 8 brands with total GM sales of 2.8 million vehicles in China. The luxury and premium vehicle market is growing in China with 8.5% of the total vehicle market in 2012. GM's 30,000 Cadillac sales makes Cadillac at only one tenths of one percent of its China sales volume, and way behind luxury car makers Mercedes and BMW. GM plans to take a larger share of this market and increase Cadillac sales to 100,000 by 2016. To do this GM will launch a new advertising campaign in China with actor Brad Pitt and increase dealers in China to 200 by the end of 2013. A new Cadillac will be introduced every year through 2016. Cadillac comes in the SRX, a small sport utility vehicle, and the XTS, a full size sedan. A 8 cylinder Cadillac, the SLS, will be discontinued.

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"Such controlling and directive forces as have been developed in recent years reside to a dangerous degree in groups having special interests in our economic order, interests which do not coincide with the interests of the Nation as a whole. I believe that the recent course of our history has demonstrated that, while we may utilize their expert knowledge of certain problems and the special facilities with which they are familiar, we cannot allow our economic life to be controlled by that small group of men whose chief outlook upon the social welfare is tinctured by the fact that they can make huge profits from the lending of money and the marketing of securities — an outlook which deserves the adjectives "selfish" and "opportunist." "In the same way we cannot review carefully the history of our industrial advance without being struck with its haphazardness, the gigantic waste with which it has been accomplished, the superfluous duplication of productive facilities, the continual scrapping of still useful equipment, the tremendous mortality in industrial and commercial undertakings, the thousands of dead-end trails into which enterprise has been lured, the profligate waste of natural resources. Much of this waste is the inevitable by-product of progress in a society which values individual endeavor and which is susceptible to the changing tastes and customs of the people of which it is composed. But much of it, I believe, could have been prevented by greater foresight and by a larger measure of social planning." ...

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Brandenburg Berlin metropolitan region of which Brandenburg and city of Berlin are separate states remains a strong economic region. This is where Germany has evolved under ruler Frederick since the end of the Thirty Years War in 1648. Dietmar Woidke of ruling Social Democrats is expected to win a fourth term in office with the SPD expecting 25% of the vote in the important state of Brandenburg next to Berlin. Even though the AfD right wing party is expected to do well approaching 25% of the vote, there are other factors at work. Sara Wagenknecht has rebranded the Die Linke Left party with immigration policy that is similar to policies now being accepted in Denmark, France, Netherlands and other EU countries that see the need to restrict immigration, drawing 15% support. A good example being Mette Frederiksen, Social Democrats in Denmark. A coalition with the Christian Democrats CDU with about 15% expected vote and Greens with less than 5% is likely for about 45% of the vote. Other factors that show a stable Brandenburg are the economy with the new regional airport hub of Berlin Brandenburg airport, a new Tesla factory, rich natural resources a third of the state of 2.6 million people being filled with forests and lakes, and a stable population after the reunification in 1990 without rural depopulation as in other parts of East Germany, only 12% people of immigrant background including Wagenknecht.   ...

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There is a major contraction in the supply of leased cars to the used car market. This used to be the major source of used cars on dealer's lots. The contraction is so large it will take years to fix, some say 2027. The contraction of leased cars is expected to be 23% from 2024 to 2025 for expiring 3 year leases. Another factor leased cars are a good deal to buy at the end of the lease seeing how sticky used car prices are these days. A 3 year old leased car now costs $28,000 up 45% since 2020, and for new cars it is $48,000 up 25% since 2020 This is significant because a key part of inflation is not only cost of groceries (eggs for example), it is also the cost of cars and housing. For cars used cars are a major part of it as it is basic transportation needed to get to work for a majority of Americans. There are Americans where a car breakdown leads to a loss of a job because it costs too much to repair and young people just don't have the money. Stories in WSJ now point to how DJT won in 2024 largely because of immigration, fentanyl and transgender, and the frustration with high inflation. The challenge is now for action where Mexico, Canada and China cut off fentanyl flows to be able to access the US market. It is also for finding a way to cut housing and car costs. ...

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Efforts to bring the two sides together for ceasefire succeed for Black Sea but hit snags along the way. Russia wanting to get sanctions lifted on it's Agricultural Bank to lift grain and fertilizer exports. A separate deal on not attacking energy infrastructure was negotiated.  Fundamentally NATO needed to be reconstituted at the end of the Cold War. Russia's apparent weakness was temporary as it converted to a market economy from the Soviet model. It's GDP is not a correct representation of it's capabilities and need for respect as an advanced European economy. With US-Russian cooperation nothing like Syria and Venezuelan disasters would have happened disrupting the fabric of American and European democratic systems. Russian conditions include ones that were clear from the early days of the war. Ukraine joining NATO threatens Russian security. That this was not to be allowed. And Ukraine to relinquish territory now controlled by Russia in Crimea and in Ukraine's east. DJT in the US has ruled out joining NATO for Ukraine. These territories have been integrated into Russia and it is unlikely that this would change so that continuation of the war after so many lives are lost doesn't make sense. Europeans particular Baltic Republics and Poland are concerned about Russian intentions- this too is not going to change by continuation of the war. It can be addressed by putting in concrete safeguards. ...

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Out of a world population of 8 billion, the population of the Middle East and the Gulf region is about 400 million, or just 5% of the population with 90% of the wars since the 1970's. Keeping this region denuclearized is of fundamental interest to the major population centers in north and south America, Europe including Russia as western civilization, and India and China which have embraced western civilization and it's scientific revolutions. Russians and Americans see themselves as part of western civilization. On this point there is no difference, none, it is only who is the more important and whose view of the world is right. Asian civilization including China and India see the benefits of western civilization, of the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Scientific Revolution and embrace it wholeheartedly and wish it had come sooner on of their own volition and intent. Other than the Korean and Vietnam wars fought in their origins against the Japanese and the French colonialism and Empires, the wars of the Middle East since the end of colonialism stand out. In Iraq, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen the only other major wars since the 1970's there are religious and ethnic wars that are of no interest to the people of three continents Europe, Americas, and East and South Asia, for whom the spread of nuclear weapons to the Gulf region brings nothing but dangerous developments for their peoples and for the peace of the world. ...

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Emmanuel Macron graduated from Sciences Po University in 2004 with a degree in public affairs. He joins the Finance Ministry as an inspector and then buys himself out of government service contract by 2008 to join a private bank. He arranges an acquisition from Nestle and other business deals during this period. In 2012 he is appointed as deputy secretary general for the president's office after Francois Hollande a socialist is elected to the presidency. In 2014 he is offered the position of Minister of Industry and Digital Affairs in the second Manuel Valls government. He makes some changes to French government but opposes the wealth tax or tax on business, and is generally pro-business, though he acts as a member of the Socialist party.  He uses this period to build momentum for his own run for the presidency as support for Hollande falters having lost support from his working class base with Macron and Valls inspired changes.  Macron finally announces he will run for the presidency forming his own En Marche movement which he finances with his own fund raising. Throughout this period right up to the election in 2017 Macron has not run for public office. When he wins the presidency in that year he lacks the experience needed as the youngest president in French history at the age of 39. Like another young president Obama he handles his public image with the media for his En Marche movement promising to unblock France. This public image and his lack of experience makes him impervious to the social changes going on in France that lead to the yellow vest protests in 2018. This is a period when there are changes in the midwest as workers in Michigan and other midwestern states turn away from Hillary Clinton and Obama.  French workers are in the position of workers in the US with the decline of manufacturing, much of it shifted with the supply chain to China and Japan, and the gap opening between rural and urban tech educated areas. Macron follows Obama's quick rise from Senator to run for president yet lacks experience, and lacks sufficient grasp of the social changes with loss of manufacturing, the wide gaps between rural and urban tech educated people, conditions in the rural and farming areas. Macron survives this period, is reelected in 2022 with the help of socialist Melenchon voters. He says he will govern differently, less distant from average Frenchmen, but his instincts are to push for pension reform. At a time of cost of living crisis, and when the French budget office says the change in pension from 62 to 64 was not critical at the present time when inflation was hitting the public after the pandemic. Macron does this by Article 49 in the way he has done under the Manuel Valls government, by executive action alone. This time he faces a no confidence motion in parliament in March 2023 following some of the largest protests France has seen in years, with two thirds of the French according to FR24 opposing the change in pension law. Women see this as coming at a time when age discrimination hurts their chances of earning a living after 50 years of age.  Age discrimination is widespread in France, in a way it is not in Germany, say reports in the NYT. And with the cost of living crisis acts as a major hurdle for the average French person, if pensions are delayed without addressing these cultural issues in France. The result is that the protests have substance and Macron is seen as not sensitive to this at a time when he lacks a majority in parliament. ...

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In India 70% of smartphones sold in 2015 cost less than $150. Apple's market share in India is really small at about 2%. Apple iPhone sales were up 56% in the 1st quarter of 2016 over the same quarter in 2015, according to CEO Tim Cook. iPhones cost about $300-$1000 without a data plan in India reducing the size of the market. In May 2016 Apple applied for approval from the Indian government to sell refurbished or certified iPhones at lower cost. In India the best selling iPhone is the older 5S which costs about $300. It makes up 50% of iPhone sales in India for 1st quarter in 2016, according to Counterpoint. Apple has no model at the low end, as the SE model will cost even more at $500. The Indian market is growing at 26% in 2016 over prior year, making it the next largest market after China. Another approach Apple is taking is seeking approval to open its own retail stores and sell online. A waiver has been given by the government for using locally made parts. Apple's high prices and margins remain a significant barrier in opening up the Indian market, when lower priced Korean and Chinese smartphone models offer attractive options to price conscious Indian buyers....

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The prospects for direct U.S. talks with the Taliban after the planned opening of a Taliban office in Qatar. The preliminary efforts were started by U.S. special envoy for S. Asia, Richard Holbrooke. Holbrooke died in 2010, and his successor, Marc Grossman, a former ambassador to Turkey, has continued the efforts as senior representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Grossman now has a team of officials from the Defense Department, the State Department and Intelligence agencies working with him. After a decade of war, a shift in public opinion in the U.S. to domestic issues, and a withdrawal date by the international forces set for 2014, the time appears right for the negotiations that would end this war. Grossman has the backing of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in this push for a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. The recent deterioration of U.S. relations in Pakistan to a breaking point, the complex relationship between the Taliban and the Pakistan military, the growing unpopularity of the U.S. in Pakistan, the meaningless struggle with a Taliban with intrinsic links in the Pakistan military, and the fragility of the elected government in the country are other factors that may be leading the U.S. government to look at the bigger picture and grasp any opportunities towards a negotiated settlement. ...

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GM says it will end traditional pension contributions and instead use a 401 (K) plan. GM's pension plan was underfunded by $8.7 billion as of Sept 30, 2011. GM will also freeze salaries for 26,000 salaried workers. Salaried workers will get an extra week of vacation. GM's 48,500 UAW union represented hourly workers will receive bonuses under a formula dependent on profitability and quality. Salaried employees will receive smaller bonuses because other metrics such as free cash flow and earnings before interest and taxes, and not just profit, are used to determine bonuses. GM's management sees GM as not having enough margins to reduce risk to the level it should be. The pension shortfall and the losses in Europe are also on their minds. Margins at GM lag behind compettitors. GM's margins are at about 6%, compared to Hyundai and BMW having margins of 10% in 2011. These changes come as GM plans to show a record profit of $8 billion in 2011. Management sees no room for complacency after the missteps in the last decade leading to the government bailout. A strategic decision made by GM in 2011 was to reduce the overhang of high inventory by reducing production, changing the way GM operates now compared to the years before bankruptcy....

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The Spanish government agreed to open the books of Spanish regional governments and the regional savings banks to reduce concern in financial markets about Spain's debt. Spain's government debt is 53.2% of GDP in 2009, which is lower than Greece at 127%, Italy at 116%, Portugal at 76%, Ireland at 65%, and Germany at 73%. Spain's problem is the a large amount of private debt accumulated during15 years, in the low interest rate environment after joining the eurozone. Joining the euro sent interest rates in Spain down because it removed the risk of devaluation. The government was restrained by the Maastricht treaty criteria but private investors and regional banks could borrow freely, and they borrowed extensively, with money going into home building and construction. The fear is that the Spanish government will end up taking on much of this debt. The other problem is that Spain needs to refinance much of that debt in 2011, at a time when investors are nervous about eurozone debt. Spain's central government will need to raise 170 billion euros in 2011, regional governments another 30 billion euros, and Spanish banks another 90 billion euros. The government has set up a special facility for Spanish banks to draw on of 99 billion euros....