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Daegu in South Korea was hit early and hard by coronavirus. Now 3 months later the social distancing rules are practiced diligently and people have become used to it. Large gatherings are still banned. Daegu is South Korea's Wuhan the center of the epidemic in China,  with a city of 2.4 million having 40% of South Korea's cases. People in Daegu remain comfortable with social distancing guidelines. What they worry about is not having to practice these guidelines- these are an accepted way and it makes everyone feel safer. It also gives people in Daegu a sense that this way another upsurge is less likely to happen and drive away consumers from shops, shops then having to close. In fact preparation and disciplined approach, with backup scenario planning and continued testing for cluster isolation and quarantine following contact tracing, is giving people here an extra sense of confidence. In some areas markets and shops have gained back 80% of customers, and most shop owners want to keep it that way.  ...

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The choice of new Federal Trade commission chairperson shows that president Biden is making a complete break from the Obama era White House and the favor Tech in Silicon Valley had under Obama, says this report in the WSJ. Antitrust probes by Justice Department and FTC are expected to limit power of tech companies. Ms. Lina Khan is new head of the FTC. Biden says "its just wrong" that Amazon pays little in federal taxes. This report says Mr. Obama feted Silicon Valley at a White House festival called "South by South Lawn."  And that 80% of the 334 people registered to lobby for Apple, Amazon, Google last year previously worked on Capitol Hill or the White House. 

Mr. Biden's Families plan and Jill Biden's commitment to education are more in line with the heritage of FDR and Harry Truman, even Eisenhower, presidents who fought on behalf of the working men and women of America.

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The Iranian response to the tighter sanctions of the Trump administration are seen in this report from Tehran in the WSJ. The economic arm of the Revolutionary Corps that helps run the Iranian economy managing civil construction projects, oil projects, and commercial real estate, is now led not by a general from the Iraq-Iran war. The new head is Saeed Mohammed who has a PhD. in civil engineering and has managed civil construction projects. He hopes to use his company's resources to fill the void left by foreign investors complying with sanctions and withdrawing. The companies run by the new leader are run on management efficiency principles leaving behind the revolutionary fervour of the previous period. As CEO of Khatam Construction Base, 50 year old Saeed Mohammed plans to stabilize the economy and soften the harsh effects of the sanctions of the Trump administration on Iran. He plans to work with other private companies inside Iran to shore up the Iranian economy till the sanctions regime and the differences with the U.S. are settled. ...

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This report in the Times looks at president Macron in a holiday setting at the presidential place Bregancon near the military port of Toulon in the south of France. Macron worked hard on the European Recovery Fund and getting a $390 billion non repayable aid fund for southern Europe with chancellor Merkel of Germany through tough long negotiations with the Dutch and the Danes. His work with two provincial mayors as prime ministers, the last current prime minister Castex, in fighting the coronavirus is giving him much needed boost in popularity. Throughout his willingness to learn and to try new approaches without worrying about the risks, and his frank manner with perseverance has helped Macron as he navigated unknown waters. After a drop in the polls to about 30% he is now up to 50%, 18 months before the presidential election. This is good for France as strong leadership is needed after the pandemic both for France, French speaking regions, and in solidarity with former French Africa. ...

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Researchers at Beihang University and Tsinghua University in Beijing studied how temperatures and relative humidity affected the natural transmission of coronavirus in 100 cities across China, The looked at data on January 21, 22 and 23, before Chinese authorites stopped its spread. They calculated that the infection was more contagious in northern China, with temperatures and relative humidity low, than among the cities along China's warmer and more humid south east coast. Their conclusion- high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of coronavirus. The researchers are funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. Researchers at the Institute of Virology, University of Maryland, have found that the consistently similar weather across the Northern Hemisphere between 30 degrees latitude and 50 degrees latitude north, running through China to South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, France, provides temperatures of between 5 and 11 degrees Celsius (41 to 51 degree Fahrenheit, with relative humidity between 44% to 84% and low specific and absolute humidity. The conditions in which the coronavirus thrives.  ...

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Apple has 15.8% of the home computer market by revenue. Apple has two thirds of its PC's as portable or laptops while the Intel/Microsoft PC's are only 50% portables. Apples sales are growing at 35% a year whereas Intel/microsoft Pc's are growing at 5% a year. Apple is really poised to grow. It plans to introduce new versions of it Leopard Operating System frequently for the next 10years, whereas Microsoft is slow to introduce new versions and Aple's Ultimate Leopard Operating System sells for $129 Microsoft Vista Ultimate version sells for $250. Apple PC's sell for higher prices so Apple revenues from its market share are much higher. Apple is poised to grow especially with the younger ipod and i phone users of the next generation. Innovation continues to drive Apple's progress . Jobs talks about the new class of interface Apple created with multitouch interface on the iPhone version of the OS X, which Jobs says simplifies the task of controlling or directing a computer.

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Turkey's constitutional amendment to centralize powers in the office of the president was approved by 51.2% of voters with 48.8% voters saying "no." About 85% of 55 million eligible voters voted in the election. It was seen as not offering a level playing field for opposition parties to organize and have freedom of assembly, after action taken by the president against the media and opposition following the coup attempt in 2016. The opposition Republican Party says about 2.5 million votes may have been compromised. Also showing the wide split in the country between urban and rural, a majority of voters from the largest cities of Istanbul and Ankara voted against expanding the president's powers. The constitutional amendment now becomes effective in Nov. 2019 after new elections. Turkey's electoral boards are adminstered by judges, yet the integrity of the system of justice has suffered from the dismissal of about one third of all judges since July 2016.

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The Ifo Institute's Hans-Werner Sinn presents the German view on bailouts for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. He says that socializing of debt was proved to be a bad idea even in the U.S. experience when eight states and territories were allowed to go bankrupt in the 1830's and 1840's, and even though California is close to being bankrupt no one suggests socializing the debt. The European Economic Advisory Group has favored short term assistance and liquidity assistance but not aid for insolvency. Bundesbank assistance for international shift of refinancing credit, also called Target credit, is estimated at $874 billion, since 2007. Greece and Portugal current account deficits were financed using this. ECB purchase of government bonds $250 billion, and $500 billion in rescue programs from the IMF, and additional help from the European rescue funds such as EFSF. Sinn says Germany would lose $1.35 trillion if the euro fails. If Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain go bankrupt and repay nothing, and the euro survived, Germany would have lost $899 billion by his estimates. He responds to critics by saying that the Marshall Plan gave Germany 0.5% of GDP for 4 years, or 2% in total, or about $5 billion today if taken as 2% of Greek GDP....

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That the IMF has returned to anew relevance is very much due to the leadership of DOminique Strauss Kahn, a former French finance minister who took the top post at the IMF in November 2007. It has committed $160 billion in ahost of credit lines and new loans to emerging countries and its lending capacity was boosted to $750 billion. Its ahuge turnaround in which the IMF went through alarge metamorphosis to deal with the global financial crisis. Still the Economist says not all is well, as the emrging countries China and India have paltry share in votes the IMF'S governance, Brazil's is less than Belgium's. This and the resistance of Europeans to change their disproportionate say in the IMF governance is shortsighted and shamefully so says the Economist. Fixing this should be a top priority at the G-20 Pittsburgh summit.

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Yale University's Robert Shiller quotes Thomas Jefferson from a letter written in 1820, where he said about the passions in the North and South about extending of slavery to the Missouri territory: "this momentous question, like a fire bell in the night, awakened and filled me with terror." He says there are serious consequences of letting longterm unemployment continue. He cites a proposal by Edmund Phelps, Nobel prize winner in economics from Columbia University, which would have the government give a subsidy of $4.50 an hour for the lowest paid workers, with declining amounts till they earn $15 an hour. This proposal would cost about $150 billion and be aimed at reducing income inequality and making these lower paid jobs attractive. Other proposals for reducing unemployment are to use work-sharing on a national basis with government help.

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A cross-referencing initiative by the new government of Mario Monti in Italy called the "income-o-meter," will be setup in the next few months. Under this initiative the government will cross reference different transactions and compare bank accounts with declared income to take action against tax evasion. Tax evasion is so widespread in Italy that an estimated $150 billion is lost in uncollected taxes. This would help Italy bring down its defict and reduce the debt burden in the current crisis. Attilio Befera, director of Agenzia delle Entrate, Italy's internal revenue service, says that the new cross-referencing initiative will prevent someone from declaring income of $26,000 and buying real estate worth $1.3 million. Tax officials say that in a country with 2.5 million luxury cars, only 2% of 41 million taxpayers showed an annual income of more than $260,000.

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Spain's underground economy and family support is helping people in Spain cope with unemployment at 24.4%. Economists say that the unemployment figures may overstate unemployment by about 5 to 9% because many laid off workers work in the underground economy now work on a cash basis. It also means that the government has less revenues because workers in the underground economy do not pay taxes, and that this hurts consumer spending as many of the workers now get paid one half of what they made earlier. When the worker cited here was laid off at Ikea subcontractor Pantoja in Seville, to deliver and assemble furniture, he began working on an informal basis by helping customers at the Ikea store do assembly and any other work such as painting and repair. This worker now makes half of the 800 euros he made earlier.

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The Air France strike ends after 2 weeks, with the government deciding not to step in with a mediator. Air France says it will continue its strategic plan to expand budget airline Transavia, though Air France pilots would not be required to fly for Transavia. About 250 Transavia pilots will be hired as part of overall hiring of 2000 new employees, and the pilots will fly longer hours at less pay than the current pay and hours of Air France pilots. About 35 single-aisle Boeing 737 jets will be added for Transavia. No Transavia base of operations will be setup outside Netherlands and France, such as ones planned for Portugal to reduce costs. About 40% of the European air travel market is now with budget airlines. The strike cost Air France about $25 million a day for 2 weeks.

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Trofimov provides this report on the conflict in Syria and Iraq. Islamic state fighters from other countries are paid $800 per month compared to $400 for local fighters in Syria and Iraq. Fighters in the Free Syrian Army are paid $100 by comparison. Many of the fighters coming from Russia, western countries, and Arab countries see this as part of a visionary effort to create a new Islamic society, an experiment of sorts. In the process dislocating many of the local population and turning them into refugees going to Turkey and Jordan. Many of the 20,000 fighters crossing into the region from the Syrian border are veterans of other conflicts and bring previous experience. The Syrian city of Raqqa is described here by Trofimov as dominated by these fighters with much of the local Syrian population turned into refugees.

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Roger Cohen interviews Glenn Greenwald, a journalist for Britain's Guardian newspaper, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Greenwald made disclosures of NSA spying on Brazil's president Dilma Rousseff. He now has the backing for a online publication from eBay founder, Pierre Omidyar, for the venture with financing of $250 million. Greenwald helped make Snowden's information on NSA spying public by writing about it in the Guardian from his base in Brazil. Cohen says old style mainstream journalism has been affected by the 9/11 events, and brings up David Halberstam's words at Columbia University in 2005- about not letting the powerful intimidate independent journalists. In 2013 the government of Britain asked the Guardian to turn over documents related to NSA spying, which the Guardian resisted, leading to a protest by Germany that this violated respect for freedom of the press.

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The Dutch had their tulip bubbble, the Chinese have their Pu-er tea bubble which has just burst. It was a pure speculative bubble with speculators cornering the market and bidding up the price of tea in Yunnan province on the Burmese border. From 1997 to 2007 the price of these green tea leaves from Yunnan- that make a fermented brew called Pu-er- wentup from $15 to $150 a pound. Actually a group of manipulative buyers drove prices up. Production doubled from 2006 to 2007 to 100,000 tons. Unlike other teas this tea is said to grow better with age and is packed into compressed cakes for transport. Now prices of this tea have collapsed to $3 a pound. Russia had its own experiment with unbridled capitalism, now China is struggling with the effects of the aftermath of its own unbridled capitalism.

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About 1800 people die in traffic accidents in New Delhi and most of them in motorcycles accidents, the Nano has this market in mind. Whole families riding in tricky fashion on a motrorcycle, a vision that Ratan Tata had in mind when he pursued the goal of a 1 lakh ruppee car affordable to the average Indian on a motorcycle. It meets the Euro III pollution standards and could meet Euro IV with some improvements. Part of the ingenuity of the engineers challenged with this task of affordable quality in design from scratch to reinvent the automobile- a car that has 21% more space and still is 8% shorter than the Maruti 800 the smallest car on Indian roads today. The engine is placed in the back and the wheels at the extreme corners of the car.

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The German government's committee on the future of transport has proposals that call for fuel price hikes and electric vehicle quotas as Germany faces heavy European fines for not reducing transport emissions since 1990. This means the stretches of unlimited speed on the Autobahn roadways in Germany may now have speed limits. The proposals include limits of 80 mph on roadways and fuel tax rises from 2023, abolition of tax breaks for diesel cars, quotas for electric and hybrid cars that could get half of the emission cuts needed.

A series of diesel emissions cheating scandals have damaged confidence in diesel, and the lack of progress in climate change through less coal use has damaged confidence in Germany's climate change efforts. A new climate change law is planned.

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Spain's economic recovery is creating jobs and growth has returned after the financial crisis yet Spain's middle class has suffered a decline. Today across Europe only 60% can call themselves middle class, compared to 50%, and this decline can be seen in Spain where the middle class remains vulnerable and the quality of jobs created is nowhere near what it used to be.

Just like in the U.S. this reverses two decades of expansion and growth.

Europe's safety nets have offered protection in the past but this is also affected by deficit reduction policies required by the European Union. The loss of middle income jobs, weakened social protections, and skill mismatches have reduced economic mobility and widened economic inequality. Automation and globalization have made things worse.

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Care home care or nursing home in Germany goes from $1700 a month in 2018 to $3760 in 2025 doubling in 7 years. Most of it is from increase in nurses pay and training that has gonu up after years of stagnant pay levels.

In Germany 85% of older citizens elder care is in their own homes with help of relatives and outpatient care assistance is covered from a nursing care insurance fund that pays $330 to $990 a month depending on level of care required. The average pension is $1100 a month.

Statutory long term care insurance is part of German Social Security System with long term care insurance compulsory paid for by employers and employees and 3.6% of pay income going to contributions for this long term care.

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Swiss face 39% tariff by US after "disastrous" call by Swiss president to DJT higher even than proposed 31%. Swiss surplus of $46 billion is the issue in US trade. Swiss say they can't import chocolates from the US, the US thinks they can take in oil and LNG. Swiss have not learnt from the UK, EU and Japan, South Korea which came up with solutions to cut deficits with the US, knowing the US was serious to cut it's trade deficits. India faces the same problem as the Swiss, the need to come up with solutions and think that this is a new system of world trade that replaces the old one that lasted for 50 years and is now gone- call it LPF -a level playing field for all countries.

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The 50 day Shanghai Composite index fell below the 200 day Shanghai Composite index in June 2011. This results in what is called a "death cross," or a long term bearish pattern. The last time this occurred in March 2010, the index went up slightly for a month before going on a 25% drop .

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This report on Danish wind energy company Orsted, looks at the journey of the largest developer of wind energy in the world from a company sending natural gas from North Sea to Europe to a joint developer with Denmark's Vestas of offshore wind farms. Last year Orsted, pronounced Ehrr-sted in Danish for the O and named after a Danish scientist, decided to invest $57 billion in offshore wind farms by 2027. It was not easy and the path required a bold vision and bold action to invest in wind energy for the long term even as debt piled up from losses in natural gas competing with coal, climate change committments were not yet strong, subsidies were required to make wind energy competitive, and debt was piling up. It would take a decade of hard work and technological innovation to produce wind energy that could outcompete coal and natural gas on cost without subsidies. The year is 2009 with the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The predecessor company to Orsted was losing money in natural gas with lower cost coal energy generation in Europe at the time. Yet the mood was changing governments were willing to invest in renewables. In 2012 a new CEO Paulsen did a review of 12 businesses of this Danish energy company and decided wind energy was the only one with long term prospects. The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference created new awareness for the need to come up with a long term solution for energy that has no negative health effects and is renewable. That Conference set a goal of 20% for renewable energy by 2020 in the total mix for Europe up from 14%. Paulsen saw an opportunity in the crisis at the company then called Danish Oil and Natural Gas. The new company was called Orsted and the old divisions in fossil energy were sold to invest in wind farms offshore. The way Paulsen saw the situation was that the company had to take radical action whether it wanted to do so or not. By 2012 Danish pension funds were investing in large offshore wind farms of Orsted, taking a stake of as much as 50% in the Nysted wind farm. The Danish government which owned 80% of Orsted thought its projects were risky. Hard work with Vestas which builds the turbines in Denmark paid off in developing a huge new turbine that would bring costs down 65% comparing 2020 with 2012.  In 2018 the European Union was spending about 92 billion euros or $112 billion on energy subsidies including to wind farms. Britain also heavily subsidized offshore wind farms such as Hornsea 1 at about $198 a megawatt hour for 15 years double the electricity price in recent years. Windy conditions and shallow waters in the North Sea were favorable. Technology was being developed with Vestas which would reduce the cost each year. By 2016 Orsted was listed in Copenhagen. The remaining oil and gas business was then sold for $1 billion. The returns are less in wind than coal and natural gas- about 7-8% a year but the big thing is that there is certainty in this compared to coal and natural gas which are volatile and uncertain. The lesson companies are learning in renewables is that with solar and wind technology can. bring down costs, a lot of hard work and creative work lies ahead, that crisis can be turned into opportunity for companies that can be focussed enough to produce results. ...

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Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, expert on debt crises, and author of "This Time is Different," says China is one of the best examples of the idea that this time is different, with the idea created that somehow China was impervious to the massive build up of debt. The debt is now over 250% of GDP, and this was possible for so long because of the high savings rate of 30% of disposable income and the millions of young migrants moving to cities to work in manufacturing. The growth of shadow banking, opaqueness in decisionmaking, unreliable data, use of local government financing vehicles, the bubble in housing with a large portion of loans tied to the real estate market, all combine to create serious problems that will take a long time to sort out. Rogoff says the crisis in Tianjin with the deadly explosions in the port area, and the government's inability to provide answers to questions from a alarmed public, only added to the uncertainty and loss of credibility. Rogoff says he hopes the trillions of dollars in reserves will provide China with the tools adequate to tackle the debt problems before they spread to other countries....

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The US is facing a new pattern of demographic changes and their impact on Medicare and Social Security programs. The number of people on Medicare will grow in 2 decades, 2010- 2030, from 47 million to 80 million for Medicare, and from 44 million to 73 million for Social Security, according to this estimate. The workforce will grow more slowly and the tax base wiill shrink accordingly during this period. This pending worker-pensioner imbalance and the jump in the cost of the bill for Medicare and Medicaid, as well as the federal health benefit for poor people, create a major problem for the US. At the same time the group of people over 65 will rise in these 2 decades from 17% of the voting age population to 26%. This group and the people who expect to soon join this group will resist any changes to Medicare or Social Security programs, making it that much harder for the political process to tackle these issues to make the programs sustainable in the long run.