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Evidence of the multicultural society that the U.S. is becoming is shown in Census Bureau information showing that 50.4% of children under the age of 1 year were Hispanic, black, Asian American or other minority groups. This is up from 49.5% in April 2010 census information. A striking change is that the white population is growing older and the Hispanic population is much younger as a whole. Today minorities are about 37% of the population in the U.S., with the District of Columbia, California, Hawaii, New Mexico and Texas, having minority population in the majority. The median age for white non-Hispanic people is 42 compared to 28 for Hispanics, and early 30's for Asians and Blacks. The baby boom of minority children is also because the number of white women in their 20's and 30's has declined over time as the White non-Hispanic population has aged. Another change that is being seen is that immigration from Mexico has declined to the point where some Hispanics are going back to Mexico. William Frey, a demographer from the Brookings Institution says immmigrants will continue coming from other parts of the world when the economy recovers. The timing for immigration say demographers is good because without the immigrants the U.S. would have an aging society like that in Japan....

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U.S. president Trump meets with president Moon of South Korea in June 2017 at the White House. South Korea's new leader president Moon tells congressional leaders that he will not reverse the deployment of the THADD missile defense system aimed at blocking a threat from North Korean missiles. President Trump says the renegotiation of the trade treaty with South Korea is taking place, with discussions on South Korean steel exports "dumped" in the U.S. and barriers in the auto exports from the U.S. The U.S. trade deficit with South Korea jumped from $13 billion in 2011 to $27 billion in 2016, leading to charges of unfair trade. 

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SCOTUS decision on Voting Rights Act by knocking down gerrymandered district in Louisiana April 2026. US Supreme Court says it is time to decide on this and leans in favor of the Constitution and limits tampering with a election map to create districts on the basis of race or gender.

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U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, and Germany's minister of defense Ursula von der Leyden, visit troops of the German-Dutch brigade in Munster, Germany, on June 22, 2015. Ashton Carter tells a German think tank audience on June 22, 2015. "We do not seek a cold, let alone a hot war with Russia. We do not seek to make Russia an enemy. But make no mistake: we will defend our allies, the rules based international order and the positive future it affords us all. We will stand up to Russia's actions and their attempts to re-establish a Soviet-era sphere of influence." The NATO readiness effort called "Operation Atlantic Resolve" is designed to meet Russian intervention in Ukraine and preserve the independence of countries in Eastern Europe.

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Joe Nocera joins Simon Johnson and other experts in saying that Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo's suggestion to raise capital requirements of U.S. banks to 14% makes sense. He quotes Anat Admati, a fiance professor at Stanford Business School, who says the only way to get rid of bailouts is to raise capital requiremets to an adequate level. The Wall Street Journal editorial on June 16, 2011, also supports the higher Tarullo capital requirements. Why is it that European banks and the Basel III accords provide a 7% capital reserve requirement phased in over many years- to as far out as 2019- if this is the case? The European banks are in much worse shape than the U.S. banks especially with Irish, Greek and other debt on their books and Basel III is designed to accomodate this. The governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, is also advocating higher capital reserve requirements than Basel III, including the flexibility for countries like Britain and Sweden to set their own capital reserve requirements based on their own situation and the need to protect taxpayers. The U.S. stands to gain a lot from setting its own standards if France and Germany and other European countries decide to user lower standards through Basel III....

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  Tennis player Roger Federer's speech at Dartmouth College is useful advice - "its only one point" when you lose it, how to move on to the next one free of thought no negative energy, “When you lose every second point, on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot. You teach yourself to think, ‘OK, I double-faulted. It’s only a point.’ When you’re playing a point, it has to be the most important thing in the world, and it is. But when it’s behind you, it’s behind you. This mindset is really crucial, because it frees you to fully commit to the next point and the next point after that, with intensity, clarity and focus.” And how often does this happen? Every second point almost. Because he says he won at Wimbledon and US Open with only 54% of the points. He lost about half of the points and still made it, and this message is real life, it matters to most of us. When we focus, when we concentrate on the task at hand it is one minute at a time.  Mikaela Shiffrin is the ultimate example of concentration skill going downhill fast between poles requires utmost concentration and she did this for the US in the Olympics after many disappointments in previous Olympics, none of it mattered to her, as she practices and focused. And that takes one to Federer's next point it wasn't effortless. It was repeated practice, it was girt with practice that made a difference. Only today this was evident as Sanju Samson talked about talking with Sachin Tendulkar last night before today's World Cup cricket game Final with New Zealand in which he hit 89 runs and the third time he has done it in the last 2 weeks, in Ahmedabad's Modi Stadium, to become the Player of the Match, watched by nearly 1 billion fans around the world. And Federer's last message is to do this by having some fun, enjoying the experience, learning something new, exploring, and getting to one's potential. ...

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The weaker dollar has given a boost to U.S. exports. The dollar has dropped by 9.1% compared to the prior year against a broad basket of currencies. U.S. exports have provided 1.4 percentage points of the 3.0% annualized growth since the 3rd quarter of 2009. The U.S. dollar is now 5% away from its all time low in March 2008, when tracked using the dollar index. Before the 2008 crisis the dollar had over a six year period lost about 40% of its value. Low interest rates in the U.S. and concerns about the deficit have contributed to the dollar's decline in value. While the decline helps boost exports, it also increases the price of oil in dollar terms and increases inflation. A Gallup poll in April showed 42% of Americans had no confidence in the Fed's policies for the economy, and 43% had no faith in Treasury Secretary Geithner. The decline is taking place even as Japan is recovering from the earthquake, and Greece is likely to have to restructure its debt obligations with European banks taking losses....

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The U.S. ranked first in an annual survey of executives rating places with favorable prospects for foreign direct investment. The survey by consulting firm A.T. Kearney has questions for executives of 302 large companies, all with sales above $500 million, about how likely they are to invest in countries over 2013-2015. It was done in October and November of 2012. On a scale of 0 to 3, the U.S. scored 2.09, China 2.02, Brazil 1.97, Canada 1.86, India 1.85, followed closely by Australia and Germany at 1.83 and the UK at 1.81. Mexico and Singapore are at No. 9 and 10 with 1.77. The survey shows the U.S., and Mexico gaining, China and India slipping, and English speaking countries UK, Australia and Singapore, as part of the 6 that are English speaking of the top 10 countries. Brazil's hosting of the Olympics and World Cup helped it maintain its position. The emerging market countries performance has slipped further since the survey, including Brazil, and the U.S. has made further gains in investor sentiment. The unrest among young people in Turkey, India, China, and Brazil as seen in street protests and credit financed booms may have further affected investor sentiment. The increase in natural gas production, revival of the midwestern economies, and a recovering housing market have boosted the U.S. economic prospects compared to emerging markets and the eurozone....

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Criticism in China of president Xi Jinping mounts as the tariff war with the U.S. Trump administration escalates. The recent vote in the People's Congress abolishing term limits also comes under criticism.

Some of the criticism comes from the view that president Jinping adopted too high profile a role for China with the "Made in China 2025" and other policy that suggested China was trying to supplant the U.S. These critics suggest China should have adopted a low profile in such matters. Under previous administrations China preferred to act in a cooperative way. The issue about artificial islands in the South China Sea aggravated sensibilities of western nations without adding much to China's security, being another issue that disturbed U.S. relations with China.

 

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The prospect of improved ties between India and China as president Xi Jinping meets prime minister Modi in an informal summit meeting. China sees India as an important trading partner as its trade relations with the U.S. deteriorate in a trade conflict and higher tariffs on China's exports to the U.S. Mr. Modi of India sees the need to maintain steady economic growth ahead of general elections in 2018 where a good economic record and performance would boost his chances for another term. 

Both India and China see the potential for a larger global role as the U.S. under president Trump seeks a smaller role than in the past. On issues such as climate change China has taken the lead and India is also an active participant in limiting carbon emissions.

 

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Any hopes that the U.S. would compromise on its position on trade issues were dampened after the G-7 Summit meetings in Canada. Europe and Canada are frustrated at their inability to move Mr. Trump on trade issues. Mr. Trump made jabs on trade, terrorism and immigration during 2 days of meetings. There is also uncertainty about the NAFTA though trade negotiations on NAFTA continue in Quebec. Trump says the negotiations were friendly and moving along until Mr. Trudeau made his own remarks about not being pushed around by its larger neighbor. On some issues there is not even an agreement on facts as president Trump says the U.S. has a trade deficit of $100 billion with Canada, Trudeau says the U.S. has a surplus. Trump says the high cost dairy industry is protected by Canada.

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The India- U.S. trade deal after the negotiations and the visit of the Indian prime minister to the U.S. is expected to take additional time. The U.S. wanted to see a 20% duty on mobile phones and ethernet switches to be reduced, greater access to the Indian market for medical devices such as stents and knee implants, and greater access for dairy, agricultural products. Making these products affordable in India is a goal of the government preventing it from making concessions. India wants preferential access to the U.S. market as a developing country restored under the Generalized System of Preferences.  A comprehensive trade deal would have to include issues of intellectual property, e-commerce, and the sensitive issue of H1B visas. Commerce minister Piyush Goyal led negotiations for India and Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said the two sides "narrowed" down their differences. India's Jio from Reliance Group has hugely reduced the price of mobile phones and mobile data making it accessible with 4G across the country at prices that are the lowest in the world. The introduction of a universal health care program requires bringing down the price of medical products to improve access to modern medicine. This means less room for American products that would increase the price and reduce access in a vast developing country. India is also playing catchup in these technologies so that there is less room for unrestricted entry in the Indian market.  Efforts were made to increase trade and investment in India with the help of Mr. Bloomberg during the visit of the prime minister, and the Bill Gates Foundation continued its commitment to public welfare gains in India in the fields of sanitation, hygiene and healthcare.  ...

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This Washington Post editorial says the Obama administration is complicit in the military attack on Morsi protester camps and civilians in Cairo on August 14, 2013, because of its failure to follow through on its warning that U.S. aid would be cut of in the event of the military taking a leading role in the overthrow of an elected government. U.S. legislation requires this action. By failing to call it a military takeover and by the administration's failure to strongly condemn the massive violation of human rights in the military attack on protesters and civilians, the Post says the Obama administration becomes complicit in the action. It sees this as self-defeating for the U.S., and unconscionable.

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With Ukraine unwilling to give up the Donbass and Germany/France/UK wanting to prevent Russian favored deal adverse for Europe, US focus on Monroe Doctrine and western hemisphere, Ukraine Russia war is likely to drag on. This is what one sees in Merz, Zelensky, Rubio speeches at the Munich Security conference. In 2026 Germany+ (that includes France and the UK) does not see it in the interests of Europe to allow a Ukraine capitulation to Russian attacks and Germany has already allocated funds to rebuild its military to prevent this from affecting Germany+ interests in Europe. Even though the winter attacks on Ukraine grid and electricity infrastructure leaves Kviv and other cities in a dire situation it appears that without the 20 year security guarantee or something solid Ukraine is not willing to sign an agreement which it fears Russia could turn around and start the war again. Germany+ which is the position of the major parties in Germany 60-70 % of voters for the SDP, CDU, Greens and others except AfD with 20-30% of voters. (AfD may have reached a ceiling as CDU under Merz is tough on migrants). Which means about 70% of Germans will support a policy of joining UK and France in resisting Russian attacks. Russia may have lost so much in manpower may see the war as a vindication only if it can hold onto the Donbass which may make it harder to reach a deal. Zelensky says Ukrainians live there and is unwilling to leave the Donbas region. The net result is that Germany+ and Ukraine are not likely to concede ground, the US reluctant to commit to 20 year security condition for Ukraine as it focuses energy on the western hemisphere and the fentanyl, drug traffickers in Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia, and their support structures in Cuba, in addition to Iran and China's plan on Taiwan sees limits to what it can do beyond limiting oil's funding the Russian attacks. It is amisrepresentation to say that the US is the cause, as everything changed the moment China became an industrial power with the help of US business interests and returned to its own story of being subject to British and Japanese incursions in the 19th and 20th centuries, and sensing that it is an industrial power in its own right by 2020 and insisting on framing its own policy in the world. Europe always had its own narrative since 1600 long before the US became an industrial power under Teddy Roosevelt in 1904. In that narrative which now plays out again different European powers band together to prevent any dominant power in Europe (Russia in 2026) from gaining dominance. ...

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Wages remain stagnant, labor participation rate declines, and U-6 at 11.8%, as unemployment rate declines to 5.9% in U.S. labor market.

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The White House is considering steps to limit access of graduate students from China to highly sensitive technologies being developed at American Universities.  About 1 million foreign students study in the U.S. and about one third are from China. An incident at Duke University involving technology that was being developed for radar detection of jets is cited in this report. Under measures being considered are restrictions on private research facilities in the U.S. and putting a large range of export goods under the existing restrictions. The main focus is the "Made in China 2025" program which forms the basis of a loss of technological advantage for the U.S. as seen by the White House. This is part of the trade negotiations with China and adds an additional aspect to the negotiations make them even harder.

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There is a surge in online classes and web based learning by 2017. About 36 million people in the U.S. who have some college but no degree benefit from these classes. The low overhead and value of these classes is making colleges move ahead with investment in this field. Arizona State, University of Massachusetts, are some of the universities pushing ahead. Purdue University as part of its "You Can, Go Back" initiative under president Mitch Daniels,is planning to acquire Kaplan University to supplement its efforts. 2U which runs online school programs has revenue growth of 30% a year. It runs marketing and the web platform, nuts and bolts, while schools provide faculty, in a unique collaborative effort. Colorado State University Global Campus went from 200 students to 18,000 half from Colorado, with only a $12 million loan from the University in 2007, which it paid back by 2012, showing the financial viability of these classes. 

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Passage of a spending bill in the U.S. Congress in December 2014 to avert a government shutdown. The $1.1 trillion spending bill funds the U.S. government through Sept 30, 2015. It was achieved by Speaker Boehner gaining the support of Democrats in the House of Representatives. 56 Democrats joined 162 Republicans for passage of the bill 219 in support and 206 against. Tea Party members joined Liberals in Congress under Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to oppose the bill.

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John Bolton looks at the continual dithering behaviour of the U.S. president in the Middle East- Iran, Libya, Syria, Iraq in sequence- and provides some insights into the president's behaviour. He says it comes from Obama's distrust of the U.S. role in the world as a positive factor, and a deterministic view of the "arc of history" bending towards outcomes he finds ideologically acceptable. This coincides with a different public perception of America's role in the world, not so much of mistrust and skepticism, as of indifference and focus back on domestic issues following the event of the first war in Iraq and of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The two are different in nature as the public including women may not share the ideological frame of mind of the president that the U.S. is not overall a serious positive factor in the world through the presidencies of TR, Wilson, FDR, Truman, Ike, to Kennedy, Reagan and Clinton, from the Russo-Japanese war, through the First and Second World War, the Berlin Airlift and the Korean War, to the Balkan conflict. Bolton writes at a time when the two perceptions are about to diverge as the U.S. returns to its normal role of positive and constructive engagement with the world....

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In this essay in Der Spiegel, Charles Hawley says that the Trump movement has become a movement of patriotic downtrodden whites, with a whole range of interests-of extreme right talk show hosts, Tea Party politicians, white power supremacists, those left out by globalization in the working class especially in the midwestern states. The danger he says is that this movement of which Trump has become a part, rejects the narrative on which America is based of the Constitution and the Founding Fathers establishing a country based on principles of "the inalienable rights of man," that have evolved through the years to include black people, women, and minorities.  To put this in perspective, president Obama writing for The Economist magazine in October 2016, puts this movement in a different context- that of the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798, Know Nothing Movement of the 1800's, the anti-Asian sentiment in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, periods when anti-immigrant or anti-foreign sentiment gained prominence. Obama's view is that it is not fundamentally economic. In this he is right in that some of the forces on the far right do not stem from globalization. Yet he would be missing a great deal if he did not address the economic problems for the middle and working class that have given such views the support of a broad segment of the population, especially in some midwestern and older industrial states compared to say the economy of California or New York. Obama is aware of the problems in his essay as he points to the problems of workers trying to get a decent wage, of job losses through globalization, and the aggravation of these problems by the financial crisis of 2008 when some of the potential physicists and engineers as he calls them went into the financial sector to create faulty mortgages. Yet he goes back to the free trade and global networks of supply chains as having reduced global poverty, without showing a keen awareness of how it has through a combination of events and decades of policy indifference to manufacturing communities in the U.S.- as documented by experts and shown in Lyrarc, with David Autor and Gordon Hansen in the WSJ, 2016- 08-16. A Gallup Study, WSJ, 2016-05-16, supports Obama's assertion by showing that many of Trump supporters are actually self-employed and not in economic distress. Yet the movement would not have taken its proportions without the merging of different groups particularly largely disadvantaged working class voters, and fortunately Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, have a better sense of this than the president. It is by their efforts that income and wealth disparities can be tackled in a way that restores the social fusion of all parts of society- in Hillary Clinton's emphatic words in the final debate by "growing the middle," growing the middle class. This is the task of the next decade, or possibly two decades. (For Gallup study see WSJ, How Economic Anxieties Explain Trump's Appeal- And Where They Fall Short, Nick Timiraos, 08-16-2016. And for Autor, Hanson, see Tallying the Toll of U.S.-China Trade, Justin Lahart, 08-27-2011)   ...

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Increasing supplies of natural gas in the U.S. will play out over 3 decades and reshape industry and manufacturing in the U.S. A new study by the University of Texas and funded by the Sloan Foundation of the Barnett shale rock formation shows that large quantities of natural gas are available that can be drilled at a cost of $4 per million BTU. This is only slightly higher than the current price of $3.43. This makes the increasing supply of lowcost natural gas a multi decade development, according to the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas.

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DW.com on what international students from India or China pay at EU universities-  44000 euros in UK vs 4000 euros or less in Germany and France. For Chinese or Indian students Germany and France offer education for bachelor and masters degress that is attractively priced even at the higher prices being now set by the government. In the past Chinese students in France were able to get Masters degrees at very little cost. Germany is looking at the higher prices as a way to increase the salaries of teaching staff and professors whose salaries lag far behind the salaries in the US and other countries. For China and India no aid program is as vital for their economies and industrial development as the access the EU provides to its universities and educational system at a fraction of the real cost. Today German universities are attracting large numbers of Indian students from middle class families where the parents life goals are to get their children into European universities. American universities cost significantly more today as American bachelors and masters degree can cost upwards of 50,000 euros a year. Even local students in the US pay between $30,000 and $100,000 a year making bachelors and masters degrees no longer affordable for much of the American middle class and leaves working class parents children totally out of the universities system. One immigrant is from Cuba- Marco Rubio of Florida, now Foreign Minister of the US. He describes in his book - "Decades of Decadence How America's Spoiled Elites Blew Up Inheritance of Liberty, Security and Prosperity"- an average factory job in Florida in the seventies enabled his parents to send him to college, which he says is no longer possible for immigrants to the US today, and no longer possible for working class parents in general. For this reason Germany and France have to be commended for their generous policies towards Chinese and Indian students. Increases in the university prices in Germany and France to 4000 euros a year for international students makes a lot of sense when British universities charge about 44000 euros a year. ...

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Remote learning has not fared well during the pandemic in the U.S. as seen by teachers, administrators and students. It may surprise one to know that 20-25% of the homes of students in most southern states in the U.S. including Texas, the west including California, New York in the east, and Illinois in the midwest do not have a relaible internet connection.  Remote learning was used with the idea that young people are tech savy. Not so say experts because being a digital learner is not the same as being a digital consumer. The self discipline of digital learning is not the same as what goes into games and other stuff on the internet for young people. Teachers say they cannot be sensitive to students the way they are in a live class and detect when some students are falling behind. Many students did not turn up online, and homework was not done regularly. As a result preliminary research shows the 50 million students in this experiment in the U.S. will return to school in the fall with roughly 70% gain in reading compared to a typical school year and less than 50% for math (NWEA, Oregon). ...

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Efforts by president Macron to setup a meeting between Rouhani of Iran and president Trump in New York to reduce tensions of miscalculation and disproportionate response after the attacks on Saudi oil facilities by drones and missiles. Macron says the "maximum pressure" sanctions placed by the U.S. are resulting in Iran placing "maximum pressure" on its neighbors. The Yemen civil war is fought by proxy.  One outcome appears to be the Houthi rebels backed by Iran in Yemen announcing a unilateral ceasefire. And the Saudis announcing a ceasefire of their own. This gives the European Union, the U.S., Saudis, Iran, China and Japan, time to consider the implications of the counterproductive approaches of the different sides to give enough room for new talks. Iran nuclear deal, U.S. relations with Iran, and any new talks on these issues are now seen in a different way. The nuclear deal is now linked with other issues in the region, including building peace in the region. Countries that depend on oil flowing through the Straits of Hormuz such as Japan, China, South Korea, and India are now also involved as silent partners pushing for peace in the region.  ...

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The U.S. economy moved ahead at 4% growth in GDP for the second quarter 2014. The qualifier is that of this 1.66 percentage points was for increasing inventories, so that GDP growth excluding this was 2.3%. Still a large improvement over the negative 0.9% GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2014. Personal consumption expenditures growth was broadly even between clothing, housing and cars, contributing most of the 2.3% growth. Imports outpaced exports. Business and housing investment was modest for a small part of this 2.3%. Expansion of state and local government spending made up for decline in federal spending.