LyrArc Article Gist
Karishma Vaswani of the BBC points out that the Trump administration tariffs and the response from China with tariffs of its own, are not the beginning of a trade war but negotiating tactics of both sides. Behind the scenes and behind the declarations and position statements both sides are talking to each other and considering the options open to each. The U.S. position is that China has emerged with a bigger share of the global economy by dumping products, subsidizing its industries from solar panels to high tech ventures, and stealing American technology by forcing U.S. firms into joint ventures that increase pass through of advanced technology. U.S. firms seeking access to the Chinese market or using China as a manufacturing base such as Boeing, Apple, GE and other high tech companies are in ventures or manufacturing arrangements where China has access to advanced American technology. Nathaniel Taplin in his article in the WSJ also sees this as a negotiating position set out in the U.S. for talks with China. Taplin says the U.S. is in a stronger position in this negotiation because of the huge surplus of about $300 billion that China now has with the U.S., and which is increasing in 2018 with the strength of the dollar. The Trump administration is looking to correct the trade imbalance in the future by focussing on China's access to advanced U.S. technologies in the next phase of competition between the U.S., Europe and China. This limited objective is more likely to lead to concessions by China Taplin argues, because of two reasons. China needs the dynamism of U.S. firms and technology advances because these firms and Chinese firms that are getting foreign investment are the most productive part of the Chinese economy with jobs generated, rate of return about twice that of inefficient state run firms. China also needs access to advanced U.S. and European technologies even in a limited form as it pursues further modernization.   ...

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In a tactical move the Trump administration links a trade deal with South Korea with progress on the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and bringing North Korea to talks on denuclearization. After some offers by the North to open this issue in talks the progress is stalled. The move is an effort to bring more pressure on both Koreas on this issue.

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The WSJ responds to president Biden ramping up renewable energy plans and linking Republicans with Senator Rick Scott's plan for sunset provisions on federal legislation every 5 years that Biden says would include Medicare and Social Security. WSJ is critical of Biden's renewable energy plans and calls for increasing production of oil and gas to meet energy shortages and price increases. It is also against a wealth tax, Biden's $2 trillion Workers and Families Plan, and Biden's plan for Medicare to negotiate drug prices. WSJ says real disposable personal income increased $4205 under the Trump presidency 2017-2020, and has since declined by $374 with high inflation depressing purchasing power. The impact of climate change requiring brave choices and strong action is missing in the Republican plan as Republicans focus on attacking Democrats controlling the presidency and Congress on the issue of inflation. The issue of remaking supply chains are on both the Republican and Democratic agendas with president Trump giving more rhetoric against China's role in dominance of supply chains and Mr. Biden taking stronger action in Theodore Roosevelt's style of carrying a big stick and quiet posture in restoring America as a manufacturing powerhouse. The impact of climate change is short term rather than long term as seen by the heat wave in South Asia today, the fires in North America and Europe. Republicans are losing sight of the importance of making the shift on renewable energy quickly with some short term pain, as they push for oil and gas solutions and a less effective program for renewable energy. Mr. Biden is taking on bigger risks in the short term in the midterms and beyond but following a sound policy of aggressively pushing renewable energy. This can also be seen in the importance renewable energy is being given even in countries with a need for coal and natural gas such as India. Modi's plans in India are to buildup renewable energy capacity with aggressive targets for 2030. ...

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The Trump administration is taking aim at drug costs under Medicare inflated by deals pharmaceutical companies make with industry go-betweens.  These are the secret deals of pharmaceutical companies with pharmacy benefit managers who negotiate the price of drugs for insurers and employers.

Under the proposal pharmacy benefit managers lose the legal protections that let them take rebates from drug companies.

LyrArc Article Gist
This group of 26 leading scientists from Australia, France, Britain and the US are calling for a new international full, open and unrestricted forensic investigation into the origins of the coronavirus in its original location of Wuhan. This happens as scientists on the WHO investigation team in Wuhan say they did not have unrestricted access to conduct their investigation. The Biden administration has restored ties to the World Health Organization after the Trump administration cut ties on this issue of transparency. The Biden administration says transparency is an essential condition for the US as it seeks to continue US participation in WHO. The US, India, France, Britain and other European nations have a long history of participation in WHO and were original founders. Recent flawed election processes at WHO and the lack of effective leadership from western foundations have led to the lack of effective leadership of WHO that prevailed in post war world for the first five decades of the organization. Much of that leadership was from western nations, India and Japan, during a period in which the pandemics were managed limiting their spread from the areas of origin. ...

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Pope Francis recalls his days as a boy playing soccer on the streets outside his home in Buenos Aires, Argentina, with a rag ball because they did not always have a leather ball. "There was not always someone with a leather ball so we played with a ball made of rags, a pelota de trapo." Pope Francis was born Jorge Mario Bergoglio to Italian immigrants in Argentina. He calls it a great school of life for him being the goalie and having to take all the shots taken at him. His leadership has shown concern for the marginalized and the poor through the repeated economic crises and the current pandemic. In his talks with world leaders including Trump, Biden, and recently Modi of India he has shown the importance of taking good care of the environment, the downtrodden and the marginalized in society. 

Some of the influences in his life come from his father, an accountant from Asti in northwest Italy, who loved reading to the children and had a library.

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In this economy there is wide divergence in the US for upper income people earning well on assets they own at 5%+ for extra income and the lower middle classes wage earners that are struggling even with low unemployment and inflation at 3%. WSJ looks at these two divergent parts of the US economy and what can be done. Inflation could be worse with higher Trump tariffs on imports, says WSJ. The situation is a difficult one for families struggling even with higher incomes, as this one in Michigan in the WSJ, that finds it necessary to take money out of savings with prices higher but not reflected in inflation statistics of 3%. One example is higher housing and apartment rental costs with 25% of families having to spend over 50% of their income on home rental leaving little for food and expenses. President Biden has called for limiting price increases on home and apartment rentals to 5%, and Harris has proposed aid for families spending more than 30% of household income on housing costs. Strong action is needed. ...

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This Der Spiegel report says there is a loss of American prestige after one year of the Trump administration. It accepts that rising inequality and impunity for the powerful may have led to the reaction in the election. Yet it says American leadership is missing after four decades of American leadership and ideals that led to the rebuilding of Europe and Japan.

LyrArc Article Gist
China lets the yuan drop to below 7 to the dollar as it responds to president Trump threat of additional tariffs of 10% on $300 billion of Chinese goods. Previously the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, defended seven to to the dollar. The weaker Chinese currency would be an offset to the tariffs on Chinese goods.

This has risks for China as in the capital flight from China in 2015-2016. Debt denominated in foreign currencies has built up under an illusion of currency stability, especially for property developers in China with about $55 billion of such debt, according to Moody's.

China's other response was to suspend agricultural purchases from the U.S.

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Trump DJT efforts to seek discussions and agreement with Russia and China yields results in Israel- Iran war. Biden's single focus on Ukraine that put Russia at a distance, and failure to build dialogue with sincere disagreement with China as DJT has done, can be seen as a failure of US obligations as a world power. The DJT approach gives Russia and China an opportunity to reflect on their obligations as world powers, to their people and the people of the world, so that they pursue national aspirations keeping this always in mind uppermost.

LyrArc Article Gist
In this excellent report from the WSJ reporters talk to people in key counties in battleground states. Issues people see as important are covered to get a feel for how they think. The four topics on people's minds are-

1.  Business and the Economy

2.  Race and Policing

3. Climate

4. Agriculture and Trade

5. Coronavirus

President Trump has popular support for work on the economy, and in agriculture and trade. He faces criticism for the surge in the coronavirus cases during the second wave.

States selected for understanding people's views and thinking- In Pennsylvania, Philadelphia county. In Wisconsin, Sauk County. In Michigan Macomb and Wayne counties. In Florida Lee county. In Georgia, Peach county. In North Carolina, Watauga county. In Arizona, Maricopa county. Other states include Maine, Iowa, and Colorado.

LyrArc Article Gist
The 2016 election will be decided by changing demographics and shifting coalitions between Democrats and Republicans. The changing demographics mean that a higher Latino vote in states such as Nevada, Colorado and Florida could bring these states to Democrats. And the working class vote in the industrial midwest in Ohio and the vote in some farm rural states such as Iowa could bring these states to Republicans. Michigan is another industrial midwest state which is uncertain as the older industrial centres such as Youngstown, Ohio, Scranton, Pennsylvania, and parts of Michigan- a big change from when unionized workers voted Democratic. The millenials, college educated women, and suburban voters in cities such as Denver, Miami, Las Vegas and Washington are now part of a new Democratic coalition. Most striking is the way the electorate is divided between better educated and less educated, between men and women, and between young and older voters. In fact with the conservative cultural emphasis in the Republican platform older voters are looking back to bringing back the 50's, while Democrats and the younger generation are looking forward to the future in this election. This is not an accurate characterization though because in 1948 with Harry Truman and in 1952 and 1956 with Dwight Eisenhower America was changing rapidly and looking to the future, so that by 1960 the civil rights movement was already established, and women were making the transition to being college educated and working in business and government.   ...

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This report in the WSJ shows in an extraordinary detailed way going back 20 years how under each administration Bush, Obama, Trump in the US and Angela Merkel in Germany, Hollande and Macron in France, the serious differences in the world view and thinking between president Putin of Russia and western leaders were simply ignored or overlooked. Mr. Putin truly believed in Ukraine and Russia as one people, researched history on his own and wrote an essay that made him more convinced than ever about his views that separation of Ukraine from Russia was an artificial construct, more so in the last two years.  By integrating the German and European Union economies with Russia and China without coming to terms with the large separation in views of the world and ignoring Russian views because of its economic size as an economy the size of France, both Merkel and Obama's policies failed to grasp what was happening. This report shows in much detail each event since 2005 that led to increasing distrust by Putin of western leaders.  The integration of the economies of the west and the integration of supply chains with China and Russia continued even after serious concerns had developed during the Trump administration. US and European business was operating on a completely different path not taking this into account in any way. It was only in the Biden administration and after the election of Scholz in Germany in 2021 that the situation was becoming clear. On the other side Ukraine itself and its people had changed in ways that were not anticipated by people in Germany or Russia, much less the leaders in Germany or Russia. There was a genuine sense that Ukraine was a national identity leading to the Ukraine resistance and a prolonged conflict. Brendan Simms, Cambridge historian shows how Europe went through conflicts and wars in its history as each of the major European nations sought advantage from 1453 to the present in his book, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Small gains were made in these wars that dragged on bringing great suffering to ordinary people.These wars involved England, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia. ...

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Leaders of North Korea and South Korea, Kim Jong-Un and Moon Jae-in meet on April 27, 2018, at the military demarcation line between North and South Korea.  After handshakes and Mr. Moon stepping onto North Korean soil for a few minutes, Kim Jong-Un visits Seoul for peace talks.  This is a historic moment for the two countries as this is the first time since the Korean War (1950-53) that a North Korean leader has visited the South. No peace treaty was signed after the Korean War. During the period of six decades that followed the Korean War, particularly the period after 1980, the South Korean economy recovered from the war and expanded following the Japanese export model with large conglomerates such as Samsung. The North Korean economy has struggled in the period and North Korea is one of the poorest countries isolated for most of this period like Burma from the rest of the world. The development of nuclear weapons was pursued to prevent any external threats to the government, and decades of sanctions followed with aborted efforts to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. Recent ballistic nuclear tests and the installation of a new anti missile system in South Korea led to tighter sanctions with the cooperation of China. This heightened tensions, followed by the tighter sanctions. Kim Jong Un and the government are looking for ways to win approval in the international community, and find a way out of the tight sanctions. South Korea, Japan and the U.S. government are not sure whether this will lead to any results in denuclearization. The summit with Moon will be followed by a summit between president Trump and Kim Jong Un of North Korea. If a way can be found for the North Korean government and party leaders to transition to acceptance in the international community followed by integration of the North and South's economies over an extended period, there is a possibility that denuclearization could work, because it is to maintain the current government in North Korea that nuclear development was pursued in the North. Ideological conflict is now less of a factor in the conflict between North and South Korea as it was in the early days of the Korean War with the Cold War and Communism's advances in Eastern Europe and Asia the big issue at the time. Today China itself is more of a state run economy under the Communist Party following capitalism with Chinese characteristics than the old Communist model, and ideological conflict is not an issue between the U.S. and Communist run countries. This leaves open the possibility of a solution particularly as at some point just as in the case of Vietnam and the U.S., North Korea could see its future more allied with that of South Korea than with China. That leaves an opening for a timetable of transitional actions plus effective implementation stages, with incentives for the U.S. and Japan to negotiate a settlement. ...

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Infosys built its business on outsourcing by U.S. business. President Trump's executive order to "Buy American, Hire American" is changing the way it does business. Infosys plans to hire 10,000 software engineers in the U.S. by 2019. 

A big change is also coming from new technologies in computing that require small teams to work side by side with customers. This is best done by having software engineers in U.S. offices and not engineers in offices thousands of miles away. A president of Infosys says this is the new face of computing at Infosys.

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The first use of chemical agents in Europe since 1945 in the poisoning of a former Russian spy led to strong coordinated action by the European Union countries, Germany, Britain and France with the U.S. Trump administration. This NYT report shows how the action was taken and the meetings of Macron, Theresa May and Merkel that led to strong action. Because Russia is energy supplier to Europe and the Social Democrats in Germany as part of a coalition in Germany not favoring strong action earlier governments in the EU shied away from such action.

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This is an highly important interview by the BBC with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. We have followed the path breaking work of Mr. Lighthizer at Lyrarc.com over 10 years, and have great respect for his effort on behalf of the American people and American workers. Here are some of the remarks he made at the end of the term of the Trump administration. Lighthizer says the objective of trade is not just efficiency, it must be working men and women. This is the shift that Mr. Trump has made. It will be a lasting change as leaders in both parties see this as important, says Lighthizer. There are companies that immediately want to go back to the way things were but Lighthizer says members of both parties will prevent this. This will be a lasting change. Democrats in particular could soon face strident criticism that they have let down the working class from within their party, increasing the risks of the party to represent large parts of the American population. Lighthizer says its not accurate that we started a lot of trade wars, we have simply enforced our laws and insisted on fairness for American workers. There was really no trade war in the improved NAFTA deal in the interests of American workers, which also enhanced worker protections in Mexico, for a win-win on both sides of two neighbors. "We want strong communities in the U.S. and if that means T-shirts will cost another nickel, they will cost another nickel," sums up the way Lighthizer sees it, and the way all of America would see it if one regained the idea of government for the people, of the people and with the people. "We are proud of what we have done to reorient American trade towards working people in the U.S. and less towards outsourcing and corporations," says Lighthizer. And he says that was important to do. Lighthizer only highly underestimates what he has done for America and American workers.  A lot remains to be done. The about $800 billion in overall trade deficit the U.S. has with China, Germany and the rest of the world is not sustainable, he says. The job only gets harder now that the direction is clear.    ...

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In Pennsylvania the winner of the primary gets only 14 delegates. 54 delegates are not pledged to any candidate. The deadline was Feb 16, and a few Trump supporters got on the ballot for delegate in some Congressional districts without any support from the Trump organization in a lone effort. Pennsylvania has a very well organized Republican Party, which is described as preferring pragmatic candidates and has a top down leadership structure. Senator Rubio of Florida has three supporters on the ballot in each of 18 congressional districts. Even on the first ballot at the Republican convention these 54 candidates can support the presidential candidate they choose. This has not been well understood even in the media, with the Economist and other news outlets describing Pennsylvania incorrectly as a winner take all contest for a sweep by Donald Trump of northeastern U.S. states delegates.

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This NYT report by Thrush, Shear and Sullivan, looks at retired Marine general John Kelly, the head of Homeland Security till he was made the new chief of staff at the White House. He replaces Vince Priebus, who was the Republican National Party chairman during the 2016 election, becoming the new White House chief of Staff in January 2017. Priebus lasted only 6 months. This report points out that presidential family members Kushner and Ivanka Trump now report to Kelly, as part of the new discipline imposed by Kelly in an effort to reverse the chaotic situation in the White House with different quarreling factions. Kelly made this a condition for his taking the position, which Trump accepted as he was keen on firing Vince Priebus and had asked Kelly to take the job since May. Kelly is shown here as monitoring the contacts of Cabinet secretaries with the president. Who sees the president and for how long is now determined by Kelly to impose rigorous discipline. Kelly supported McMaster in the dismissal of a National Security Council member supported by Bannon and Kushner, in an effort to bring discipline. There is one area Kelly does not get into- the tweeting and personal affairs of the president. His job as he sees it is to put some bureaucratic competence around the president. In doing this he takes a tough approach that so far is respected by president Trump, as the presidency suffered from repeated setbacks from infighting and leaks. Will Kelly last where others have failed is a question posed in this report. Two people who were superiors of Kelly give their opinions. Kelly reported to Leon Panetta, a former chief of staff under Bill Clinton who was Defense Secretary, and to Robert Gates,  a Republican who was Defense Secretary. Panetta may know him closely as Kelly was his chief military aide as Defense Secretary. Panetta says of Kelly, that Kelly never minced words, said what he thought looking at you in the eye- if he thought a proposal was nuts he would say it right out. The big question Panetta says is whether president Trump will give him the authority for long. Also stated in this report is that Kelly called Comey when he was fired as FBI Director, and that Kelly even considered resigning in protest.  Less noticed even in this report is the way in which a team of experienced politicians and the senior most officials in defense and national security are working together in August 2017. In an interview with Washington Post editor Ignatius broadcast on PBS, Republican Senator Corker described how he works closely with them, and how the key people in defense and national security work together before they see the president. The appointment of Kelly helps to create a core independent group of advisors around the president, which is positive in the event the U.S. has to respond to a crisis. ...

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The battle of Dien Bien Phu has another significance as looking back it was not the cold war conflict with the soviets but a struggle for freedom and independence from French colonial rule. The conflict cast a shadow over the Kennedy administration, and after John Kennedy lost his life in Dallas, led to a loss of Kennedy's vision of the New Frontier, ideas that were lost for 4 decades of mediocre or inexperienced leaders from Nixon to Clinton, Bush and Obama and Trump that embroiled America in distant wars and wasted resources needed at home for infrastructure and needs of the people. FR24 looks back at the Battle of Dien Bien Phu 1954, that gave Vietnam freedom from colonial rule and independence. The French ended their rule and Vietnam was divided into 2 states. The US was drawn into the struggle by support and advisers to the new government in the South. Just 6 months after Dien Bien Phu the French were faced with another conflict with the Algerian war of independence that went on till 1962. In the South Vietnam situation it happened in the backdrop of the struggle of the US with the Soviet Union and the People's Republic founded by Mao in 1949, called the Cold War. In 1956 Soviet tanks rolled into Budapest to crush the Hungarian revolution. It is in this context that president Kennedy was pulled into the conflict of North and South Vietnam. Would Kennedy in a second term have handled it differently than Lyndon Johnson who with the Tonkin resolution had America drawn into the conflict left behind by the colonial French power. It is possible Kennedy would have handled it by consulting Congress and the people and looked for solutions outside Cold War conflict. The result and the end of Kennedy's term led to the vision of the New Frontier and Kennedy's imaginative leadership being forgotten with a series of mediocre presidents Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump for three decades leaving America into expanded wars in Cambodia, Star Wars competition wit the Soviets, Iraq, Afghanistan and wasted America's resources, neglecting its infrastructure and needs of its people in health and education. ...