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John Taylor, says Obama and Alan Krueger (Obama's new head of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisors), said some of the same things in early September, 2011, that were part of Obama's old plan to revive the U.S. economy. And the old plan has failed to produce results. The part that puts construction crews to work on the roads, railways and airports was tried earlier in the stimulus plan. Because of a lack of showel ready projects, and the state governments putting most of the money in their state coffers, this only increased infrastructure by a miniscule 0.05 percent of GDP, according to research by Taylor and John Cogan. Taylor's sees the moves by the Obama administration and the Bernanke Fed as not only being ineffective, but having the opposite effect of lowering investment and consumption demand through increased concerns about the federal debt, another financial crisis or the risk of inflation or deflation. The U.S. private sector has the money to make the investments that create jobs but their concerns have led to holding back. Taylor points to the need for a comprehensive economic strategy to replace these temporary interventions. The debt limit agreement of 2011 is a part of this strategy, and he agrees with reducing spending in a gradual way in a weak economy. The other parts of this strategy he says are entitlement reform, tax reform, regulatory reform, monetary reform, including a reappraisal of the role of government in the economy. This should lead to a more stable and predictable economic environment and reduced uncertainty about the future, which is critical to improving supply and demand....

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Boosting vaccine production for the Indo-Pacific region that includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam with production done through Biological E in Hyderabad will be discussed at the meeting with Biden. Japan will fund the project, and Australia will handle the distribution. This will be part of a followup to a March 12 virtual meeting of Quad leaders. This effort to meet the vaccine supplies challenge for the Asian region covering south east Asia and its population of 600 million will be one of the major outcomes of Quad countries collaboration, making it a peacetime collaboration that supports development in the region without burdening the financial position of any country.  The other part of US- Indian collaboration and Quad collaboration centers on two related themes after healthcare and pandemic. The immediate challenge is to tackle the breakdown in the supply chain for semiconductors. The US and Europe can no longer depend entirely on a supply chain based in Taiwan. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Straits which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is only 81 miles wide, which makes continued dependence on chip production on Taiwan an unreliable option and the need to build a new supply chain for Japan, EU and US. Plans will be made to address this in the talks. The Biden administration has already taken action with Intel Corp making a U turn and bringing chip manufacturing back home to the US with $50 billion investment planned. India and other Asian countries may form additional options for semiconductor manufacturing. The third part of the Quad effort will center on US and Japan ramping up infrastructure building capabilities with India to build infrastructure across Asian countries and in Africa that will be financed in a way that will not have some of the liabilities of the Chinese initiative called Belt and Road. Loans given by Chinese state banks and contracts including manpower from Chinese contractors are now seen as not meeting the needs of Asian and African countries. These loans most of the time cannot be repaid as in Zambia, and other parts of Africa, and in Pakistan, leading to interest accumulating on debt and making future infrastructure development extremely difficult. The use of manpower from China also means no learning curve for infrastructure is formed for local companies and infrastructure comes without new jobs jobs being created.  For most of the period 1900 -1950 the British built Asian and African infrastructure. During the period 1950 onwards the US assumed a major role, as did the Soviets. This changed after belligerent Reagan administration policies and wars in the Middle East sapped the funds that could have gone to infrastructure building that would improved living standards in Asia and Africa. Mr Biden wants to see this change and this is what he meant when he said at the UN General Assembly today- " we want relentless diplomacy to take the place of relentless wars." He means every word of this and the diplomacy is between allies and also adversaries, but mostly with allies such as Japan, the EU and India to build a better world. That he has to do this quickly Biden is aware of that, which is why he said "the next 10 years will determine our future."   ...

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This is a story of missteps in retailing that can lead to loss of as many jobs as when large automobile plants close-about 65000 jobs in retail at big box store Bed Bath & Beyond in 2019 down to 32,000 by 2022, and with all stores closing in 2023 all jobs lost. Some of these jobs were replaced with the growth of Amazon in online retailing and warehousing shipment, others permanently lost. Jordyn Holman and Lauren Hirsch of the NYT explain how a major retailer collapses into bankruptcy in 2023. This retail chain started in 1971 thrived on its two founder's concept of building a customer base around a store that piled high the volume of merchandise selection for bedsheets, towels, pillows, kitchen appliances, and offered 20% coupons on brand items. It survived the 2009 crisis and by 2012 its stores were up to 1100 from 350 ten years earlier in 2000. This was a result of 4 acquisitions including Buy Buy Baby and Harmon Stores Its collapse is a textbook case of what can happen. Its financial foundations were weakened by a bond offering $1.5 billion, going into the debt market for the first time.   From its success attracting activist investors and the company according to analysts trying to fend them off. The bond offering was the first step to impending disaster. In 2019 three activist investors won a fight to appoint 4 new board members and hire a new CEO Mr. Tritton from Target.  The big change happening just before the pandemic was the complete change of management with the new CEO. Stores that had made the decisions on what merchandise to buy based on location were no longer allowed to do so. Some stores were closed and there were layoffs reducing employee morale. The big change came to the 20% coupons which was the unique feature of the store getting people back into the store. Coupons were cut back as profits declined. The pandemic introduced new elements of surprise. The supply chains were disrupted, and just at that time new management decided to shift to private labels to increase margins and sales. Kitchen Aid was replaced with private labels. As a result of supply chain disruptions the stores could not be stocked leading to customers moving away, a crisis was brewing. At that very time something concealed the crisis from view. The Biden administration checks to support people during the pandemic led to a sudden increase in sales, a one time spurt. Then as suddenly as the spurt months later a complete dropoff in sales. Management closed more stores, suppliers who were not paid demanded to be prepaid leading to stores being only partly stocked. Bed Bath & Beyond collapsed as its coupons were dropped, its stores poorly stocked, no brand merchandise such as Kitchen Aid, and decisions made at the wrong time including the debt load all taking a toll at once. By the end of 2022 bankruptcy loomed. In April 2023 the company declared bankruptcy after failed efforts to raise additional financing. The same changes also hit Best Buy, another big box retailer, which managed the changes to internet buying by shifting sales to the healthcare sector, and continuing to build on it strengths as a retailer of motivated employees with knowledge of the electronic merchandise. It made it right through the pandemic without the changes in management that happened at Bed Bath & Beyond. ...

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  A new German party called BSW,  Bundnis (Association) Sarah Wagenknecht, means Germany nationally could see a smaller Social Democrats party in parliament making way for the socialists who want to keep out migrants. Across East Germany a new party is challenging the AfD from the socialist side getting the protest vote against pro-migrant policies.The socialist BSW party is taking votes from the SPD and DIe Linke Left, from Free Democrats and Greens in the state parliamentary elections in East German states of Thuringia, Saxony, Brandenburg. Nationally SPD may be 15-20%, BSW 10%, and CDU 30%, AfD 10-15%, FDP 10%, Greens 10% in a new shape for German parliamentary representation. The AfD and far right in Germany is challenged by the BSW with both parties opposing policies that led to large scale migrant flows into Germany of Angela Merkel.  BSW is the socialist party of Sarah Wagenknecht which is opposed to migrants entering the country as it distracts from tackling the problems of the working class in Germany and burdens public services when needs are greater among the local communities.  It sees the ruling Christian Democrats, Social Democrat and Free Demcorats, Greens, as out of touch with the problems of working class Germans struggling to make a living. BSW also opposes the wars in Ukraine and Gaza for the same reasons as it takes away resources that are better used to tackle problems at home. The AfD party also opposes migrants but is seen as feeding on the grievances of people of old east German communist state who feel left behind by the reunification of Germany. As a socialist party BSW is for addressing problems of inequality and poverty, childcare, cost of living action, housing, and many of the problems of the working class. Mette Frederiksen Danish prime minister has combined socialist ideas with anti-migrant position in Denmark. A similar position is being taken in the US by the Biden Harris administration in the US by closing the Border with Mexico.  Who is Sahra Wagenknecht and the BSW? Bundnis Sarah Wagenknecht or Association of Sarah Wagenknecht is a socialist party that grew out of Sarah Wagenknecht's own experience growing up in the socialist state of the German Democratic Republic during her formative years in East Berlin.  Born to a Iranian father who disappeared in Iran, and a German mother she was raised by her grandparents. She was active in the socialist parties Die Linke group in parliament since 2000. She received her bachelors degree in philosophy and New German Literature at East Berlin Humboldt University. Followed by MA at Groningen University in philosophy of Marx-Hegel and a doctoral degree from TU Chemnitz in Economics. She was member of parliament in the Bundestag and leader of the Die Linke group. The twin 2009 financial crisis by banks pursuing excessive leverage profits and unethical dealings, the euro crisis that followed of state actors misrepresenting their finances, the rent seeking attitudes of finance, pharma, tech monopolies and other industries has led her along with Italian economist Mazzucato to question the existing system. ...

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U.S. oil imports from Saudi Arabia increased by about 20% in 2012, increasing dependence on the volatile Middle East region.

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Glenn Hubbard, Professor at Columbia University and Bush adviser who helped design the Bush tax cuts, has an uneasy sense about the tax cuts today. He says the tax cuts have been undermined by years of deficit spending. The Bush tax cuts expire Dec 31st 2010 in the USA if Congress does not act. Macroeconomic Advisors estimates that letting the tax cuts expire will take 0.9% off the growth rate. Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman prefers to let the tax cuts expire and provide more help to state and local governments to preserve jobs that are being lost due to budget shortfalls. But becuase of the political climate he prefers to let the tax cuts go on for a limited period. The Obama administration may decide to continue with the tax cuts rather than fight the serious battles for deficit reduction, after spending much of its political capital on health care reform. Hubbard also thinks in the current situation its best to keep the tax cuts even with the concern for the deficits. He says the spending during the Bush administration, especially the Medicare prescription drug benefit, which is estimated to cost $400 billion from 2004-2013, was a major problem. The incentives to business and investors for productive effort in the Bush tax cuts is uncertain, if it becomes clear that the price for these cuts is higher taxes later on to cover growing deficit spending. Hubbard does not see any serious action on the deficit till the next Presidential term and sees it better to keep the tax cuts till then, when some serious discussion can take place....

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The WSJ/Vistage U.S. Small Business Confidence Index ends 2013 at a new high of 108.4 reflecting optimism of small business owners. The Index for 2013 shows a sharp drop by November 2012 to about 82 followed by a sharp increase for Dec. 2013 to about 94, and a similiar pattern is observed as it declines to about 95 in October 2013 and increases to 108.4 in December 2013. The sequester and deadlock in talks by Nov. 2012, and the government shutdown and its resolution by Dec. 2013 are likely causes. The Dec. 2013 Ryan-Murray budget agreement points the way out of political uncertainty that Vanguard CEO McNabb pointed to as a primary obstacle to investment and growth. This may be the strongest indicator of what lies ahead for 2014- 52% of 937 small business owners surveyed online in the Index in Dec. 2013, say the economy has improved in 2013, an increase from 36% in 2012. And 38% say they expect conditions to be still better in 2014, from the prior years 27%. Small business owners polled have sales less than $20 million and fewer than 500 employees. They are the main engine for growth in employment. Loten cites small business owners in construction and other industries who have increased hiring and expect to see a significant improvement in 2014. One owner who represents the pattern taken by small business, cut back employees by 2010, and held back on investment till 2012, increased investment in 2013 and is now expanding. Availability of credit with improved bottom lines and banks more willing to lend will be another positive in 2014-2015....

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As a BBC reporter O'Connell interviewed Adam Neumann during the its highflying days when its share value today at $1.22 was $400. The company was about to do in office space rental what Amazon had done to retail and Neumann talked the talk, yet only a few years later the company is filing for bankruptcy.  Money went into valuation at $47 billion it is now $64 million. Billions of dollars wasted. Another example of how capital allocation in the American economy is failing and billions of dollars that are wasted could have been used to rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure and public needs in health and education, fighting climate change.

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Russian economy is faltering under the strain of the global financial crisis. The stock market is plunging, with the RTS Index down 19% on October 6, 2008, and the market down 60% since the high in May, 2008. Construction spending is winding down. Th economy growth rate was 8.1% in 2007 but its slipping. If oil prices hit $50 and they were already at $78 on October 10, 2008, then says Anders Aslund at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, there will be a sharp decline in the growth rate. Moscow analysts say the growth rate could drop to 4%. For Americans Russia may seem remote excpt for investors. But in a global economy there are connections to emerging markets and Russia is one big emerging market, next to China, India and Brazil. When General Motors shares dropped 31% and Ford's 22% on one day on October 9, 2008, the news that spooked the markets was ofcourse a credit watch and questions about liquidity from Standard and Poors rating agency, but alsoimportant was that the one bright spot for GM and Ford in Europe and in Russia in particular was disappearing as GM sales declined in Europe and in Russia. In the prior 12 months GM had seen sales jump by 40% in Russia giving it 10% of a car market that passed Germany recently as the largest car market in Europe. Couple of important things about Russia. Russians today are big spenders, savings are small and Russians do not trust their banks so bank deposits are very low. Household deposits are equivalent of 17% of GDP, compared with 45% in the USA. Only 4% of Russians trust commercial banks according to a poll by National Financial Research Agency in Moscow. So Russia depends on the outside world for much odf the cash flowing through its financial system. Foreigners purchased two thirds of the $170 billion in bonds isued by Russian companies and foreign banks put up half of the accumulated $900 billion in bank loans including almost all longterm debt estimates Moscow investment bank Troika Dialog. With global credit markets in a lockdown mode Russia is simply running short of cash. The government has $560 billion in foreign exchange reserves from years of high oil prices plus $160 billion in two sovereign wealth funds with most of this money in fixed income securities abroad as a rainy day cushion should oil prices tumble. On October 7 the governmet announced $36 billion in emergency loans to Russian banks following earlier pledges in September of $150 billion in loans and relief for Russian companies in danger of defaulting on international debts. One danger here is that about 55% of outstanding corporate loan are of maturity less than 1 year. One of Russia's largest developers Mirax Group is putting 50 projects on hold as bank financing for developers has almost ceased. On the other hand Russia's financial sector is relatively small and the credit crisis cannot hurt Russia as much as it will USA ad Europe. Bank loans account for 10% of corporate finance and the bond market is only a decade old, so about half of all capital investment by companies comes from retained earnings. And Russia has huge needs for investments in infrastructure after years of underinvestment, a stable political structure, an educated workforce, and an economy that is just getting started. As Secretary Paulson answered questions after the G7 meeting October 10, this was another point on the minds of the secretary and questoners, the hope that emerging markets like Russia, India, and China would continue to grow though slower than before, even as the US and Europe slipped into a long recession, and provide a little cushion to the global economy....

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Email exchanges between OMB staffers and Obama administration officials, released exclusively to the Washington Post, show the Obama administration urging the OMB to speed up its decision on the half a billion dollar loan to Solyndra. This was part of stimulus funds to the solar industry. Solyndra was a favorite of the Obama administration according to the Washington Post, and aides to Rahm Emmanuel and other officials sent emails urging speeding up approval. OMB officials in their replies stated they were under pressure. One email by a senior OMB staffer sent to McSweeney, Biden's domestic policy advisor, Aug 31, 2009, said: "we have ended up with a situation of having to do rushed approvals on a couple of occasions (and we are worried about Solyndra at the end of the week)... we would prefer to have sufficient time to do our diligence reviews." Other emails referred to "the time pressure we are under to sign-off on Solyndra," and indicated "there isn't time to negotiate." Solyndra had large investments by the funds operated for the family foundation of George Kaiser, an Obama fundraiser....

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Whats behind the surge in delayed flights in the past year. With the New York, Newark, Philadelphia area hardest hit, especially La Guardia airport. Passengers and the airlines have become so used to the advantages of smaller planes and with Congress mandating a phase out of slot requirements which were eliminated at Kennedy airport, there has been a tremendous increase in smaller planes providing direct service to smaller towns and cities, such as La Guardia to Madison, Wisconsin. The addition of a 37 seater plane for a new American service from La Guardia to Flint, Michigan shows that this has gotten out of hand, because la Guardia is one of the worst affected airports, with chronic delays even before this. For the year 2007 ending May smaller planes flights increased 85% over the previous year into Kennedy and they are more likely to be filled. 75% of the flights between Toronto and La Guardia are on planes with less than 100 seats, with 20 such flights alone competing for runway space. When all these flights from all parts of the country enter the east coast cities its like entering a 2 lane tunnel to get to places like New York, with the additioal problem that delays in New York cascading into delays alll over the country, as these delays affect other flights....

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The gas attacks of March 16, 1988 killed 5000 Kurds in Halabja and the Anfal campaign of the Saddamist regime killed 180,000 Kurds according to one estimate. That Ali Majid is still in the hands of Americans and not executed as the Kurdish survivors expect 20 years after the crime against humanity shows how long it takes to bring some sense of justice and peace to the country, and that the Americans entered the country after some of the worst repression by Saddamist regime.

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Mims raises questions about how productive current investments in Silicon Valley are in tackling real problems we face. He points out that advertising represents about $100 billion in an economy of $16 trillion, yet most startups focus on advertising revenues. Is $1.2 billion invested in Uber ride sharing service too much when other startups tackling bigger problems could be funded with some of that money, is a question raised by some in Silicon Valley.

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Nissan and NEC plan to invest $115 to produce a lithium ion battery in a 3 years project with capacity of 13,000 a year in the beginning growing to 65,000 annually by 2011, mostly for cars. Nissan has a 51% ownership stake in the new company. Nissan and NEC say their laminated cell battery uses a stable crystal structure called spinel manganese that will eliminate risk of overheating.

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Senator Lamar Alexander is a kind of misssionary for electric cars and for a major push with government assistance in this area. A bill sponsored by Alexander and Senator Byron Dorgan plans to designate 5 to15 urban areas as model locations for electric car use. These areas would get money for infrastructure such as recharging stations, and people in the areas would get an additional tax credit to take the tax credit from $7,500 to $10,000. The bill has important provisions for promoting research at companies and universities to improve electric car batteries. $1.5 billion would be allocated for research in electric car batteries, and a $10 million prize for the person or company able to build a battery with a 500 mile range. The total cost- $10 billion.

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India's prime minister Modi takes the first six months of his administration to come to grips with the problems of a slow moving bureaucracy, inexperience of ministers, problems left behind from the previous Congress party administration. He had raised hopes during the election campaign of faster action, but it now appears that it will take much longer, about 1-2 years for the new administration to make the transition to rapid growth. Analysts say this is also the approach Modi took in Gujarat state where he was chief minister, an approach of carefully studying the problems before formulating a plan of action. To do this Modi is ensuring a level of continuity in the civil service and has reappointed top civil servants such as Mr. Ajit Singh.