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Zardari is asking for $100 billion when Pakistan has in its central bank enough foreign currency reserves for 2 months of imports of oil and food. He also wants to defeat the Taliban and militants and find those responsible for the death of Benazir Bhutto. This interview with Bret Stephens who gives an account of it and his own comments, ends with some remarks by Zardari about wanting to defeat the militant elements that killed Mrs Bhutto in a manner where "not letting them get away with it" referring to those responsible, is something he wishes to do before his own life ends. It suggests that this war is likely to take a new turn as the military in Pakistan takes on the militants and Taliban and as General Petraeus looks for a way to reverse Taliban gains in southern Afghanistan and other parts of the country.

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Citadel, a large hedge fund headed by Kenneth Griffin is having problems, with its flagship fund down 35% this year. And the rumor mill saying some of its funds are down 60% and Fed Reserve officials are visiting the fund. Citadel is leveraged 3 to 1 and this is down from higher levels . Ironically Griffin has been known for buying other companies assets for pennies on the dollar, including E Trade and hedge funds Sowood Capital. And where did Griffin get started? He started trading in his dorm room at Harvard in the eighties. The hedge fund $1.7 trillion industry is facing a shakeout. It has already lost $180 billion in the August-October 2008 period and some hedge funds face collapse.

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The view that the war in Afghanistan should move forward as acounter insurgency effort like this one, does not see the partner in the Karzai government or the Afghan dislike of foreign troops on their soil as factors to be addressed seriously. It also does not address the difficult mountainous terrain in the country. It also does not look for alternative solutions that could be worked out with Pakistan for addressing the presence of AlQuaeda terrorist group in the border regions.

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Experts say China's official GDP figures are unreliable and cannot be verified. Transparency is sorely lacking. The methodology, inflation assumptions and other basis for the calculations are not presented, so that many of the numbers cannot be reproduced. The official figure for 1st quarter GDP growth is 7%, from China's Bureau of National Statistics. GDP growth estimates developed by Capital Economics show 4.9% growth, by Citi 4.6%, by the China Center of the Conference Board 4%. Since 2012 the Capital Economics estimates are just above 5%, and the Conference Board estimates about 4%, showing that the growth rate has slowed markedly since 2012. As Communist party chief of Liaoning province, the current prime minister showed serious doubts about the GDP numbers and preferred to rely on figures for rail cargo, electricity consumption, bank loans.

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Gates gives his perspective on the US role in foreign affairs and how the new policy of the US should be shaped.

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This story in the WSJ shows how the Phase 1 deal between the U.S. and China was negotiated in November and December 2019. As a bargaining chip for negotiations on a Phase 2 deal the U.S. has preserved tariffs of 25% on $250 billion in imports from China, and the reduced tariff  of 7.5% on $120 billion of imports. In Phase 1 Mr. Trump convinced the Chinese leadership that he was serious about going ahead with further tariffs to cover all of China's exports to the U.S.by a December deadline. This was also Mr. Kushner's message to the Chinese ambassador. In talks China gave easy concessions on agricultural imports and offered to buy twice the amount of soyabeans and other food imports- which helps Mr. Trump with farmers in the U.S. At the same time difficult concessions on enforcement to change subsidies to Chinese state owned companies were put off. China formally says it is an issue of Chinese sovereignty. It is also seen as a part of the Chinese business model that is working and China is in no hurry to change this. It has offered to step back from asking foreign companies to transfer technology in exchange for market access. On technology issues and subsidies the tough negotiating issues on which the U.S. has insisted for changes, China has held back. Phase Two is not likely to happen at least not till after the election, as China wants to be able to develop its own technology rivaling the U.S. and Europe, without the kind of formal enforcement the U.S. is demanding. In the long run it plans a shift to an economy that is less dependent on the U.S. for imports which may be in the interest of both countries, as U.S. manufacturing has shriveled over two decades hurting American jobs as a result.   ...

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This report in NYT shows the movement of Mexicans who migrated to the US in the 1970's in an earlier migration and the problems they faced seeking a better life in America on the east and west coastal cities. In 1971 Ruperto and Eustacia Enriquez migrate from Puebla, Mexico to New York. They make two migrations within the US after a mugging incident in Brooklyn in 1980. First to Santa Ana, California where they find life difficult with gang crime in neighborhoods, and move to an affluent suburb in the east side of Seattle. Their son Daniel gets a Bachelors degree in philosophy from the University of Washington. In 1996 he returns to New York to study for a Masters degree in Latin American Studies at New York University.  After 25 years in New York and taking up a jobs two financial firms he reflects a strivers mentality, always looking for self-improvement. He helps his younger sister with an application to win a Fullbright scholarship in Germany. Another sister works in Washington as a business analyst. He helped a brother who became a school teacher in New York public schools. Daniel found an apartment in Park Slope, Brooklyn and by 2013 joined another financial firm in its global investment research group coordinating publications.  The story reflects some of the growing pains of Mexican Americans who migrated to America in the 1970's in the earlier migrations. In 2022 Daniel Enriquez 48 years was shot on the subway while going for Sunday Brunch, 25 years after returning to New York City. Crime was once again up in the city after the pandemic. 950 crime offenses happened in the subway system for the year till May the same as in 2019. Subway ridership was 40% lower in May this year.   ...

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If the decline in manufacturing in rural southern Virginia for 500 workers in a low tech deli meatpacking plant can devastate whole communities, then imagine what happens  when manufacturing in chips and science with high paying jobs are put at risk by market forces focused on AI.  This week WSJ carried a story about Qualcomm which does design and does no manufacturing is planning a takeover of Intel, a leader in manufacturing for advanced chips in the US, a key part of Biden-Harris strategy to regain a American foothold in Chips manufacturing. Such a takeover makes no sense for America's long term interests. Qualcomm could simply jettison the manufacturing capabilities -a key part of America's long term chips and science strategy just because AI focus has distorted market forces. IMAGINE THE DAMAGE. Regulators need to safeguard the Nation's long term interests for reliable chips manufacturing within the US, to avoid the crisis experienced with chips outsourced overseas leading to severe shortages in 2021-2023. How this has happened is that AI has created distortions in the market so that companies are valued differently. So that an Nvidia gets valued at $1 trillion and even for a day at $2 trillion then going back down to half that, all within a 12 month period. AI is distorting the market in ways that a chip leader like Intel now gets valued at $90 billion a third of the $290 billion it is valued at only a short time ago, making talk of takeovers possible even from smaller design only companies such as Qualcomm. The market failure in this case comes from markets being distorted by not reflecting true costs of shortages America experienced in chips from lack of its own advanced manufacturing during 2021-2023.   ...

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Lakhdar Brahimi who was special representative of the UN secretary general for Afghainistan from October 2001 to December 2004 and was present when under UN auspices Afghan political representatives met to build anew after the US defeated the Taliban. He says it was a mistake then no to try to atract those in the Taliban movement and other political groups in Afhanistan that could have been brought into the new political setup and administration to build a broader base of support. And the Taliban did not surrender to anyone when it was defeated so the same mebers of that movement could simply resurface. Also no peace can be achieved in Afghanistan without the cooperation and support of Pakistan its neighbor and with tribes. sharing land on both sides of the border. Brahimi says he bitterly regrets not having advocated more strongly 2 suggestions made by the UN in early 2002. The first to reach out to those members of the Taliban who were willing to join the political process and second to deploy the ISAF outside of Kabul with increased strength. He also believes the war that happened in Iraq after the Afghan peace effort may have falso fundamentally altered the views of people in the countryside and in border areas of neigboring Pakistan about perceptions of the US and NATO....

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A Republican says the party's failures to come up with alternative policies instead of simply opposing president Obama, has led to the atmosphere of negativism and anti-immigrant rhetoric that increases support for Trump in the party base. He cites as an example 2012 Republican presidential nominee Romney and his comments about "self-deportation." Other examples cited include pushing Rubio to where he repudiated his own immigration legislation just to maintain support in the party. He says this leaves him little option but to vote for Hillary Clinton.

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New risks are emerging in the shadow banking system as regulators work to make the banks safer. Banks as deposit backed financial firms are different from mutual funds, private equity and other firms that are doing more of the financing for business and home loans in the U.S. financial system. As banks deleverage responding to tighter regulation by increasing capital buffers and reducing assets, it makes the financial system safer, yet creates new risks in the shadow banking system not subject to regulation and not supported by bank deposits the way banks are. A IMF report put out in April 2015 underlines these new risks in the U.S. and European financial system. Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds now rival banks in providing financing to companies with high debt. Total bond holdings worldwide in 2014 were $9.6 trillion, increasing 25% over 2008, and the mutual funds leveraged loans increased 60% to $151 billion in the U.S., 223% in the eurozone to $126 billion, according to the IMF. The IMF points out that these mutual funds and exchange traded funds favor emerging market and corporate junk bonds, and operate in a way where they mimic each others in their investments, creating contagion. With hard to sell securities and the rapid decline in these types of funds in a panic, the effect could be to create contagion across the funds. In the mortgage lending field a similiar process of deleveraging is happening. U.S. banks share of federally guaranteed mortgages from big banks down from 61% in late 2012 to 33% in 2015, other smaller finance companies taking up 51% increasing from 24%, according to an American Enterprise Institute report. Paul Tucker, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, points out the dangers. He says policy makers and regulators are playing catchup with firms in the financial services industry who are constantly looking for gaps in the rules, a game that policymakers and regulators are likely to lose at some point....

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Donald Trump's remarks at a Wilmington rally that caused a storm- "Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish the Second Amendment. By the way, and if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do folks. But the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don't know." The second Amendment in the U.S. Constitution gives people the right to bear arms. Some newspapers saw it as threat, especially considering the heated rhetoric in Trump's other remarks in his campaigning. Speaker Paul Ryan called it a joke gone bad, and that the Second Amendment should not be talked about in this way.

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The New York Times reminds readers that Newt Gingrich- who criticized Romney's record at Bain Capital- was himself on the advisory board of private equity firm Forstmann Little. This editorial describes Santorum, Romney and Gingrich as corporate candidates who had close ties to private equity or lobbying firms.

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The heavy monsoon rains this year and the lack of adequate storage facilities may result in the loss of 10-15% of the wheat and rice harvest this year, according to Indian government sources. This means food prices are rising because of this loss of grain. India badly needs more and better warehouses to store grain and control food prices.

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Anti-immigrant sentiment in the city of Dresden,in the former East Germany. Sentiment is muted compared to places in the western part of Germany, because only 2% of the population in the east are foreigners. It is also muted in comparison to France, because of low unemployment.

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Of the $17 billion in writeoffs by Petrobras for overvalued assets and bribe payments, about $2.1 billion is for bribe payments. This is affecting public confidence in the government, and exposing the weak links between Petrobras and the government in Brazil.

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The probe into corruption at Petrobras, is known as "Operation Car Wash," because some of the payments were routed through a car wash company in Curitiba, Brazil, which caught the attention of a young federal prosecutor in that city. The investigation took a new turn with the arrest by Brazilian police of the heads of two large construction companies, Marcelo Odebrecht of Odebrecht SA, and the CEO of Andrade Gutierrez, on June 18, 2015. Investigators say construction executives in collusion with Petrobras officials inflated the price of contracts and made payments to politicians and political parties including the ruling Workers Party. The alleged amount is about $2 billion. The construction companies are active in shipbuilding, defense contracting, oil and exploration related work, and building the stadiums for the World Cup Soccer and the Olympics. This has damaged the credibility of the ruling Workers Party, former president Da Silva, and current president Dilma Rousseff, in power during the last decade. The companies and the Workers' Party denied any involvement. Federal prosecutor Carlos Fernando dos Santos Lima told a news conference in Curitiba- "We have no doubt that Odebrecht and Andrade Gutierrez headed the cartel scheme within Petrobras." Adding that the two companies "cannot pass themselves off as innocent given how much evidence we have."...