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Investors compare Goldman Sachs which has retained its trading commodities business with Morgan Stanley which has shifted focus to wealth management and other less risky business. Morgan Stanley's share price has increased more than Goldman Sachs since the 2008 financial crisis, showing the different approaches taken by financial institutions that were battered during the financial crisis of 2008. Morgan Stanley had a change in management after the crisis, Goldman is still being run by CEO Blankfein, showing a key difference between the two banks. Morgan Stanley was battered during the crisis as its share price plunged on rumors in a way and extent that Goldman was not. Goldman was relatively better managed and avoided the frequent egregious errors made by other banks such as Deutsche Bank, UBS, Citigroup, taking fewer risks, leading upto the financial crisis of 2008, though it faced increased public scrutiny in the Abacus case for mortgage securities. It also helped with regulators that Goldman has a tradition of public service with executives working in government- Treasury Secretary Rubin worked in fixed income trading at Goldman, Treasury Secretary Paulson was former CEO at Goldman with strong China connections, and Gary Gensler at the CFTC. Now Goldman gets a larger share of its revenue from trading than competitors and was affected by the sharp commodities price swings in the 4th quarter of 2014. Revenue from fixed income, currencies and commodities trading declined by 29% in 2014 to $1.22 billion. Since the low reached in share price during the 2008 financial crisis, Goldman is up 267%, Morgan Stanley is up 291%. Even as tighter regulation is squeezing returns and banks are required to set aside more capital as buffer for riskier assets, Goldman continues to maintain its focus on commmodities business and trading. Mr. Blankfein and another senior executive Cohen, both got their start in commodities trading which generated about 8.2% of revenues in 2006 when Blankfein became the new CEO. Blankfein and president Gary Cohn worked at J.Aron & Co., a coffee importer, when it was acquired in 1981 and the location moved to Goldman's former headquarters in New York. The commodities business took off with China's surge in demand for metals and other commodities. Goldman's traders buy and sell aluminium, crude oil, natural gas, soyabeans, sugar, and derivatives. Goldman's revenue of $34.53 billion in 2014 has declined from $45.17 billion in 2009, and Goldman has reduced its balance sheet by a quarter. Net income increased in 2014 by 5% to $8.1 billion. But other than these changes Goldman unlike Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Barclays, has not let its commodities trading business shrink. Goldman's commodities division is headed by Gregory Agran and co-chief Guy Saidenberg in London. Goldman says CEO Blankfein, "remains unabashedly an investment bank," and is waiting for economic conditions to improve....

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The struggle between the Detroit automakers and the states over auto emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat trapping gas emissions. California adopted the first state law requiring auto manufacturers to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide in 2002 and in 2004 set standards for the emission reductions. Vermont, as well as Connecticut, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania adopted the same standards. Automakers sued toblock these standars in Vermont and California. While the California case is pending, Judge Sessions issued a ruling on the Vermont case this week against the auto manufacturers. This follows a decision by the US Supreme Court in April 2007 that the Environmental Protection Authority has the right to regulate heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide as air pollutants. This endorses the idea that states can set their own limits. What is needed for a state to do this is to get a waiver from the EPA, as the federal Clean Air Act has a provision that allows California to set ists own standards with a waiver from the EPA, and for other states to follow California's lead. A detailed opinion includes analysis by the Judge in this case stating why the Transportation Department's authority is limited to automobile fuel economy standards and does not carry over into auto emissions as pollutants of the atmosphere, the area of pollutants being reserved for the EPA and the individual states to work out together. Under California law as it is now emissions reductions for cars could be 30% or more below the current levels in the 2016 model year. By 2012 emissions are required to be below 2005 levels by 25% for cars and light trucks, SUV's and larger trucks 18%. Note that what is technologically feasible to accomplish in the area of auto emissions is an unknown. At the same time its a function of determination, R&D investment, collaboration between companies to pool technological and capital resources, development of engineering and manufacturing investment and knowhow to learn mass manufacture at low cost, introduction of the already feasible features quickly such as stop start engines which the Germans have already in the works for mass manufacture across product lines, and so forth. The first comer in these technologies enjoys an advantage as Honda constantly advertises itself, and the the only way to say what is technologically feasible or not is by pointing to these pioneers. In this case because of the stronger environmental movement in Europe especially in Germany, some of this pointing will be done in the direction of the German auto manufacturers progress in this direction to meet the new EU standards of 120 micrograms of CO2 per kilometre. ...

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Annalena Baerbock is leading the Greens Party in Germany to a new poll high. Almost all parties lost points in the poll for Bild Am Sonntag and the Greeens gained. Coming at a time when the German public is weary after the eurozone financial crisis, the migrant crisis and now the coronavirus pandemic Annalena Baerbock brings a fresh approach to issues in Germany. Her call for a broad tent and the solidarity in the party with co-leader Robert Habeck are getting a good response from the German people.  Greens are ahead by 2 percentage points to 28%, CDU/CSU down by 2 points to 27%, SDU down by 2 points to 13%, AfD and Left Party both down by 1 point, AfD at 10% and Left Party at 7%. Greens present the idea of a new departure for Germany to protect the climate, reduce inequality and start a new Europe. Annalena Baerbock talks about this in her campaign as chancellor candidate for the September 2021 German elections- "we must make changes to create a fair country." The German people are listening after years of disappointment with the SPD under Schroeder, the Merkel years when Germany tackled crises of eurozone and migrants with no new direction for a brighter future,  the AfD creating new divisions and waning in approval, the lockdowns leading to social divisions, rising inequality.  ...

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VW and BMW show strong car sales in Germany, China and the U.S. for the first quarter of 2012, offsetting weaker sales in the rest of Europe.

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U.S. president elect Trump meets with the heads of tech businesses on Dec. 14, 2016. CEO's of Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft were present. Trump was exuberant about the advantages secured by U.S. tech companies in global business, saying- "there's nobody like you in the world. Anything that the government can do to help this go along, we're going to be there for you." The discussions covered need for more vocational education, advantages and disadvantages of trade with China, and immigration. Quarterly meetings of this type are now planned with a smaller group organized by Jared Kushner to cover immigration and education.  Jeff Bezos of Amazon described the meeting as "very productive." Bezos says he told the group that the best way was to use innovation to create jobs outside of tech in agriculture, infrastructure, manufacturing elsewhere, to create large number of jobs. Ginni Rometty, CEO of IBM, and other executives are part of the Strategic and Policy Forum set up to provide business input to the president. ...

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Matteo Renzi, 37, the mayor of Florence, wins 35% of the vote in primaries for the centre left Democratic party in Nov. 2012. This was a challenge to party leader, Luigi Bersani, who won 44.9% of the vote. Renzi appealed directly to younger voters.

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After 5 years at 130,000 miles per hour, the NASA Juno spacecraft enters Jupiter's orbit. Jupiter is the largest planet in the solar system. An earlier spacecraft Galileo spent 8 years over Jupiter, but lacked the technology to survey the planet that Juno has. Information about Jupiter could reveal the origins of the solar system. A titanium valult protects Juno's critical systems from the volatile atmosphere around Jupiter. On the 37th orbit in Feb 2018 Juno will dive into Jupiter ending the mission but providing critical information on Jupiter.

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Apple will be opening 25 stores in China in 2010-2012. Its first store is a 16,000 square foot store in Shanghai. Apple was slow to cultivate the Chinese market. Most of its newest products like the iPad and the iPhone 4 are not available in China. Apple is moving aggressively in the Chinese market to make up for lost time. It has 2000 authorized dealers in China, with 800 added in just the first quarter of 2010. Official restrictions also play a part. For instance the iPhone was officially released in China 2 years after it was launched in the USA, because of the long time negotiating with state run telecom companies and restrictions. In the meantime 1 million iPhones came into China through tourists and smuggling.

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Apple iWatch sales are about 11 million -15 million units in last 4 quarters. The iWatch sales are a small fraction of sales overall. Apple quarterly profit declines by 22.5%, as revenue declines and iPhone sales decline. Half of the quarterly revenue decline comes from China. This has hurt the share price by May 2016.

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This report in WSJ says 4 months before becoming China's president in 2012 Xi Jinping issued a Communist party directive as head of the party committee overseeing the former British colony. The directive cautioned officials about a growing separatist sentiment in Hong Kong. It said "we must dare to struggle and be good at fighting," a retired official describes as Xi's approach. Another facet of Xi's views on Hong Kong are that his father as a party leader for the southern province of Guangdong in 1978 to 1980 near Hong Kong was the first after the Cultural Revolution to set up ties between the mainland and the British colony of Hong Kong. China was experimenting with a different model for the economy and Xi's father set up the early links with Hong Kong so that the flow of economic refugees from mainland China to Hong Kong could be reduced and the gap in living standards could be narrowed. He set up the first "Special Economic Zone" and met delegations to start the Sino-British talks on Hong Kong's future. Xi Jinping grew up in the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution. His father Xi Zhongzun, was jailed in 1962 in internal party struggles, and his family was persecuted during the Cultural Revolution that started in 1966. The Cultural Revolution that went on till 1976 ironically was an attempt to stamp out possible capitalist or imperialist influences from the colonial period and the opium wars with Britain. He was later rehabilitated under premier Deng. During the turmoil Xi with some difficulty was admitted to University after spending some years in the countryside. His father remained loyal to the ideals of the Chinese Revolution even though he had suffered from the internal party struggles, an experience remains a strong memory for Xi Jinping. It is as if the period is seen as a period of experimentation and failure for the party not for its ideals of China rising from the colonial period after its failure to engage with the world before the colonial period leading to backwardness. The unity of the country had to be maintained bringing Hong Kong and possibly Taiwan together with the mainland. Rejuvenation was happening and stability was essential for Chia to grow and emerge into the "China Dream" a word coined by Xi for its emergence in the community of nations as an equal to western powers after the colonial period of oppression and cultural backwardness. In this way he is different than other leaders before him who followed premier Deng who started the experimentation with markets and economic structures. The leader preceding him was party secretary in Tibet with a prime minister who was an engineer working on public projects, in sharp contrast to Xi who had the the sense of authority from seeing different phases of Communist party experimentation in his early years. The Bo Xi Lai incident during the transition before 2012 also influenced Xi. This was an attempt similar possibly to the attempt by Lin Piao under Mao to subvert Communist Party leadership into a new direction bringing China under Soviet influence after the break by Mao. Bo Xi Lai, a party secretary for an interior less developed region Chongqing, who rose from being Mayor of Dalien to governor of Liaoning province. Bo Xi Lai attempted to subvert the process operating since the Cultural Revolution of leadership by consensus within the party ensuring stability and continuity needed for development and pushing the trauma of the Cultural Revolution out of memory. He did this by seeking high party office for his own ambitions not for the party and China's interests that guided leaders after the Cultural Revolution. This incident and the period of two decades of growth of market economy had led to growing corruption and Xi was convinced that "corruption would doom the Communist Party and the State" and the resulting instability was bad for China. During this period in 2012 Xi Jinping said that it was necessary to remove "tigers and flies" who could endanger the party's ideals and the future growth and stability of the country.  About 10,000 party officials were removed for corruption, and the rule of Politburo Standing Committee immunity (PSC) of the party operating after the Cultural Revolution was removed. The PSC is the body that at the top of the organization structure that runs China. On Hong Kong Xi now believes that the problem is best tackled by the Hong Kong government not by intervening from Beijing. There is increasing perception in Beijing and Hong Kong that the local government, business leaders have messed things up, by getting into the habit of telling Beijing planners what they wanted to hear, and failing to communicate with the 7 million people of Hong Kong. These leaders are also in a bind because Xi believes that Beijing exercized "overall governance authority" over Hong Kong. A 2014 government white paper warns against "confused or lopsided perceptions" of Hong Kong's status, saying that its partial autonomy comes "solely from the authorization of the central leadership."     ...

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Is time slipping away for Russia to restore what it sees as its special relationship with Ukraine, as Ukraine finds its own identity through its language and independent Orthodox Christian Church since 2019. This WSJ podcast report is by James Marson who lived in Kiev from 2007 to 2012, and Ryan Knutson, with the Archbishop of St Michael's cathedral in Kiev, and the editor of Elle magazine edition in Ukraine joining in.  To understand Ukraine one has to know that Russian is the language of the cities, which means people in Kiev speak Russian. People in the countryside Ukrainian. This is very unusual for a nation and it shows the condition of the country for centuries where intellectuals in cities dominated cultural and political life distant from the people in the countryside. For centuries Ukraine was dominated alternately by either Poland and Lithuania or Russia other than a period of 200 years around 1250-1400 when the Mongols were dominant. The peasants and countryside suffered greatly as in India and other parts of central Europe in the long history till the modern period in 1900.  Russians see their origins in the Kyivan Rus, a state bringing together the different ethnicities Ukrainian and Russian in the period 1000-1240 under the Byzantine Church in Constantinople. Kyiv, the modern capital of Ukraine called Kiev today being the capital of this state. This is the cultural connection that president Putin and Russians see as one they do not want to see drift away. After the Russian state drove out the Mongols in 1240 the northern provinces and Kiev became part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the rest became part of a new Russian state. After 1650 Ukraine became part of the Russian Empire and by 1800 with the partition of Poland was fully made part of the Russian Empire. Russian is now after 1800 the language of the intellectual class in Kiev and the cities, and Ukrainian language persists in the countryside. In 1804 Ukrainian is banned as a language and subject of instruction in schools. The end of the Russian Empire under the Tsars in 1917 ended the ban on the Ukrainian language and a period of respect of the cultures of the different soviet republics including Ukraine ensued. Putin has strong feelings on Kyiv, or modern Kiev, as the place where Russia as a country began. He wrote a 7000 word essay says this report in WSJ in 2010 on this relationship as he sees it.  Yet the period of protests in Kiev since 2010 has resulted in Ukraine building  its own identity as a nation. Magazines in the country are required to use Ukrainian for 50% of their circulation. People in Kiev now use Ukrainian instead of Russian as the sense of national identity is being revived. During 1917-1921 Ukraine fought a war with the Bolsheviks after the Russian Empire collapsed. This history is why Russia is acting now to push for Ukraine not drift completely away. It is also what makes Ukraine different from Poland which has cultural ties to Western Europe. It is why the US or Germany is not willing to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, as it would over Poland. It is also why Russia may not see war as the best option as about one third of Ukrainians say they will fight to defend their country, according to this report. The situation is complex and this is why both sides want to negotiate some way out in which Russia wants the US and NATO respecting its sense of connection with Ukraine in its history with Kyiv as the place Russian state started, and Russia not going further. Russia's tangible proposal is for no to Ukraine joining NATO or the European Union. The US and Germany want something else- the right of Eastern European nations that suffered from Tsarist or Soviet domination or German Hapsburg domination to finally be able to assert their own right of self-determination as democratic countries. This would include Finland. And also Sweden. Ukraine is not another small Eastern European country. Population is 44 million and it is the second largest by area in Europe after Russia.  Russia may also see the move to bring this up at this time as a way to unify the country against what it sees as threat from NATO. As Brendan Simms of Cambridge notes in his recent book -Europe, France went through a period after 1600 when it needed external danger as a way to unify the country, as much as unity of the country to fight external danger. The economic costs after building Nordstream II pipeline are to0 great for both Russia and Germany, and for the US and Russia during the pandemic, which means there is a real need to find a way out for all sides.     ...

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Modi's success in tackling problems of electricity development in Gujarat state and the model for India, as a new Modi administration is elected for India in 2014. Other areas that are the focus for development include high speed rail and transportation, other infrastructure development, creating new jobs in manufacturing. Modi made three trips to China in the last decade as a four term chief minister of Gujarat state (similiar to a governor of a U.S. state), and has adopted a China type focus on infrastructure development and manufacturing for the western state of Gujarat, which was part of the old Bombay state in British times. Mumbai, the new name for the old British settlement of Bombay on the west coast, is about 300 miles south of the major Gujarat city of Ahmedabad, at one time a major textile manufacturing center. Mumbai and commercial minded people from Gujarat occupy a role similiar to Shanghai in India's economic development. Under British times trading minded Gujaratis settled on the east and southern coast of Africa, in the Persian Gulf, with retail businesses. Of India's two largest companies the Reliance Group made its early start in textiles in Gujarat in the seventies, set up by a young emigrant who returned from the Persian Gulf. The Tata Group which owns Land Rover was set up by a Parsi immigrant community in Gujarat. Its founder Jamshedji Tata set up India's steel industry under the British at the turn of the century. The Parsis settled in Navsari, Gujarat, immigrating from Iran and other parts of the Persian Gulf centuries ago. When the media talks of Modi's origins as a tea seller's son, one has to take this in the context of the origins of people such as Reliance founder Ambani who was the son of a schoolteacher from a rural village in Gujarat. With about a 1000 mile coastline facing the Persian Gulf, Gujarat has been known to engage in the textile trade long before the arrival of the Portuguese and the British in the 1600's, and before the Muslim period from the 1300's. Many Gujaratis settled in Mumbai and are a key part of the commercial, financial center in the city. Just as Britain with its commercial centre of London evolved over centuries with commerce affecting attitudes towards democracy, free media and capitalism compared to more feudal France, Gujarat and Mumbai has evolved in a similiar manner compared to other states in the north of India. With all the media infomation and misinformation on Modi's mishandling of communal riots little has been said of the unique position of Gujarat and Gujaratis in the industrial development and modernization of India. Compared to other parts of India historically there is a greater degree of tolerance in Gujarat for other communities, similiar to Britain's compared to France and Spain, because of this commercial outward looking orientation for new ideas. ...

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The WTO setimates that global merchandise trade will decline by 9% in 2009. Betweeen 1990 and 2006 these trade flows increased by 6% a year, outstripping the growth of world output which remained at 3%. See the chart showing GDP and world trade growth year over year. Because of vertical supply chains products were shipped across borders and imported back into the country that exported a product, till the product was finally assembled in some third country like Mexico, in the case of automobiles. This interlinking of countries worsens the effect in adownturn, by bringing output down in many countries at once in any particular industry with these supply chains. And conversely positive effects are exaggerated in a upturn or boom cycle like that which was witnessed in recent decades. It makes a 1930's like situation less likely, where trade dropped by over 25%, because now all countries are affected, America's car industry exports as well as imports the same item as it is processed in several countries, and imported to the USA as a semifinished product and then assembeled in Mexico, as one example. Leaders of the G-20 agreed to fight protectionism athe the London meeting in April 2009. Is this enough? Should the Doha Round of talks be resumed? Arvind Subramanium of the Peterson Institute, and Aaditya Mattoo of the World Bank, argue that the Doha Round is too ambiious, as it tries to open markets for rich countries manufactured goods just when the crisis has hit developing countries making this ahard sell. At the same time DOha Round does not exclude Buy AMerica provisions and subsidies to fialing industries like the auto industry support measures taken by both the EU countries and the USA. So they sugggest anew "crisis round" of talks to replace Doha, and this makes sense as the items on the agenda can now be tailored to the pressing needs of a different time from when Doha round was conceived, and thus more realistic in its approach. And in the meantime all WTO members would commit to astandstill and take no measures that are protectionist. The Economist says the new "crisis round" would not do any better as there may not be the same level of interest in another round. It suggests that agood start would be for the leaders of the G-20 to be specificabout what protectionist measures it sees as unproductive and unhelpful in containing this crisis. Draw up a comprehensive list of protectionist measures that go beyond tariffs and export subsidies. The WTO would then be asked to monitor the countries based on this list and publish alist of offending countries, letting embarassment of these countries act as a kind of policing. And in addition an agreement should be reached on coordinating fiscal policy, so that it would reduce fears of leakages abroad. ...

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Daniel Howes of the Detroit News thinks there are cultural clashes inherent in a threeway Fiat-Opel-Chrysler combination. His view is that Fiat may be biting into more than it can handle, considering the failure of the GM-Fiat alliance, and the Daimler- Chrysler combination. And the Germans at Opel are not happy with the way they see GM has treated them, so how would it help for Fiat to come into the picture? The Germans love the Italians, says one German Howe talked to, but don't respect them. And the Italians he says, respect the Germans but don't love them. Howe refers to the Renault-Nissan combination as successful, but one that took years to build to deliver commonly engineered cars. But the car industry has been poorly run, without vision and with complacent management, unwilling to try new things and recreate and renew. In other industries efforts are made to build transnational combinations with differing degrees of success. Take the work of the French, Germans and the Spanish in Airbus, in overcoming different cultural factors and pulling together to learn from each other, when given good leaders, on the Airbus 380 project. See the link to this. On Fiat's Marchionne's behalf it could be said that this is a new Fiat, run by a younger generation of Italians, who have a lot of youthful energies and freedom to innovate and improvise. Marchionne himself is more Canadian and European, places where he has spent most of his life, than Italian. And he has take a decidedly different view of things from what the old view holds as being Italian, in building the new Fiat he has done things very differently. In fact there may be less of a country view here, than a management culture view. All nationalities aspire to a good management culture of innovation, and freedom to improvise and respect for one's ideas and thinking, good places to work in. People of all nationalities, Italian, German and American, for the first time, especially the younger people, may see that the one thing they value most and share is the desire to start fresh and take initiative, improvise and work together to do the impossible. The common enemy of Germans, Italians, Americans,French, and other nationalities, may be simply the artheroschelorisis of complacent management, that freezes initiative, does not delegate more responsibility to the young and give the freedom to try new things, bureacratizes the corporation into rigid hierarchies that lack speed, and take no risks to achieve the impossible. See the link to Marchionne and Fiat's transformation. Which is why old prejudices like the one Howe states from one German he talks to, that the Italians "will steal the milk out of the coffee," may be just that - prejudice from another period, that is best left behind to build something new that has no nationality to it. ...

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Intervew by Deborah Solomon with former Clinton era SEC Commissioner, Arthur Levitt, captures the mood of the public in the USA. Super skepticism and disbelief about public servants, including those of some stature in the past like Levitt. The questions are suggestive of the angst and loss of innocence, and willingness to ask the straight question right out. Solomon tries to get Levitt to take responsibility for what has happened under his and others watch. What do you feel Mr Levitt about the American economic landscape and see 401 K's going up in smoke? Have you changed your spending habits? Are you kicking yourself for not having caught Madoff at his game? After you left your SEC post what led you Mr Levitt to become an adviser to the Carlyle Group, which had ties to the Bush family and defense contracting? This question grates on Levitt. He responds that it is such a Michael Moore like exaggeration, that he was an adviser to the Carlyle Group before he went to Washington. And then Ms Solomon asks the question straight out, saying that frankly she can't understand why the SEC culls its leaders from the world of high stakes investment, when there is this "capture theory" that states that regulators get co-opted by the industries they regulate if one isn't very careful. And the response from Levitt is evasive as he talks about the patriotism of the 4,100 people who served with him at the SEC. Ms Solomon isn't accepting this and calls it boosterism, telling Levitt he hasn't answered her question. Levitt tries another escape route and talks about the European system of gray bureaucrats running government agencies forever, and how refreshing the American system of repotting private sector talent to bring fresh ideas is. Solomon's steers the dialogue in another direction. She reminds him about his father Arthur Levitt Sr. , who was the New York State Comptroller for more than 20 years. Yes, says Levitt Sr.'s son, his father was passionate about defending the interests of pensioners, and his mother was a schoolteacher for 38 years. That gets Levitt reminiscing about his growing up years with his grandparents in Brooklyn, when his grandfather would check 75 used bulbs to see if one worked before using a new one. What has thrift got to do with this Solomon starts to think, after all Levitt is an adviser to the Carlyle Group. Put that in your report, yes, says Solomon, I will. Ms Solomon is getting right down to the point by now. Levitt can reminisce about the thrift about the old days, but the public wants answers. Do you feel you should apologize, does this keep you up at night? Levitt's response: not really, I'll try not to think about it. See the link to Rubin's letter of resignation from his position at Citigroup to CEO Vikram Pandit. Rubin another Clinton era adviser and Treasury Secretary, is being asked similar questions....

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Germany has shown that low tech contact tracing efforts work- no apps needed, a phone, a desktop computer with a centralized database, and most important the human relations skills of the person doing the calls. The  sensitivity to the situation facing each person being called, being able to talk to the person in the language they speak in a multilingual environment such as California, is shown here. A 40 person team operates in San Francisco consisting of public health officials, clinicians, medical students and librarians. They call the contacts of people with coronavirus, arrange tests, and as needed send packages of food and medicines to hotel rooms or homes. Every call is expected to last 15 minutes but all sorts of questions are handled.  English and Spanish are used. Here one of the persons doing the contact tracing says she does not use apps, just an open source software used in the fight against Ebola. Definitely low tech, no waiting, get going is the message to every city in the world. She says apps software such as what Google and Apple are putting out can tell you whether the person went to some place, but cannot tell you more about that person, cannot tell you about problems the person is having being tested, and how they are having difficulty providing for families. One of the big lessons from Germany and efforts such as this one in San Francisco, and in other places such as Paris, Singapore, Taiwan, is that there is a complex nature to contact tracing that cannot be solved by tech. In fact the best thing to do is to get started immediately, with a phone and a database on a computer, as long as you have a person who has the motivation and skills, empathy with people, a lot can be done. Waiting for apps is a dangerous waste of time is shown by the low tech German experience, and the experience in other places. Most important is starting immediately. The example shown here of working with migrant workers in contact tracing shows in the most vulnerable places it is these human relations skills that count, that no tech app can do. It requires detective skills to find out and get people to share their history of movements and contacts for 14 days . In Singapore crowded dormitories house 300,000 of 1.4 million migrant workers. Singapore using an app also but its use is secondary. Apps don't work in many situations but fail in the most critical situations such as these dormitories and other eccentric or atypical situations such as faced by South Korea with religious groups and gay communities, elderly people in Europe, that generate the worst dangers of spread and need to be cluster isolated quickly. Human contact tracing has a history of being an effective method and was used in China and South Korea during the 2003 SARS epidemic. More countries need to adopt the method used in Asia and in Germany, particularly Britain, the U.S., France and India. It is OK that Britain's NHS and India's national government with Aarogya Setu app have put out their own apps which balance privacy concerns with the need to act immediately and cover the entire country, but the hard slog of human contact tracing teams in each district is indispensable. This is why the former Health minister in Britain calls it Britain's national mission to do this. Speed is key- putting together teams across the country in every district from skilled volunteers or government workers, and pulling together the phone and a centralized database on a computer as basic equipment. The fact that this is easily doable and people with human skills needed can always be recruited as they have been in Germany- from public officials in local government who are less busy in lockdowns, medical students, clinicians, volunteers, people from different professions- makes it inexcusable not to learn from others experience and get going. Just Do It. You want to reopen business, professions, offices and public services- Just Do It, it makes this possible. You want to prevent spread of the virus- Just Do It, it makes this possible. You want to limit damage to the economy and get the recovery going- Just Do It, it makes this possible. People of all shades of opinion can agree on this- its the only thing that works, even when there is a lack of enough proper accurate testing. ...

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In a corner of Wales known for its coastline and scenic beauty, a biology teacher Mr. Barry Rees sets up a homemade contact tracing system that worked. He is the director of Ceredigion county council. It is the safest county in mainland Britain with only 45 recorded cases in the last week for 75,000 residents. Early on in the coronavirus epidemic Mr. Rees decided to take up contact tracing with whatever resources were on hand and start quickly. This was was happening in German states which were also following low tech, get started quickly approach, but Rees was not aware of what was already happening in Germany. He knew about South Korea and Singapore efforts in contact tracing which put a lot of emphasis on human skills in calling and tracing and getting started immediately. Rees started with the people calling in sick of the 4000 people who worked for the county administration, as he had no testing resources. He started tracing these people and their contacts, and even though some were defensive the majority supported intervention to isolate. At the time there were fears of 200 deaths in the county so that there was no time to lose.  By April the area was facing an influx of people from Aberystwyth University and tourists visiting its sandy beaches, another reason for taking on the task with a homemade system. Today it has one tenth the cases in the rest of Wales.  The hidden fear in the country is that word can get out and lead to more visitors from outside the county. ...

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The US Federal Trade Commission is changing its focus after two decades of letting monopolies grow in many industries. It is now headed by Lina Khan, a 32 year of student of anti-trust and its role in US history to preserve the negotiating power of individuals and groups with large corporations. For decades since the breakup of large companies including oil and energy by Theodore Roosevelt at the start of the 20th century, anti-trust has followed a clear road that said large companies could not monopolize business in industries. This only changed with Reagan in the 1970's leading to the situation today where large corporations are seen as insensitive to what the public wants and what is good for the country. Apple can do most of its manufacturing overseas when communities in America have lost factory jobs for 20 years. IT companies can pay little in taxes by offshoring manufacturing and headquarters to places outside the US. The models simply don't work because they are outdated from a different time. Not just pricing but negotiating power has to be considered. Taxes to fund infrastructure are part of the overall goal that society needs to pursue. In this situation anti-trust is to be redefined in a much broader context. Does it regulate the structures of business in a way that does not affect the national interest to be competitive in technology, independent in supply channels, to keep manufacturing jobs, build infrastructure, improve public services. Antitrust, taxation, administration, all have to work together to achieve an overall goal of improving the living conditions of the people. ...