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The EU has set a goal of getting 20 million tons of grain exports out of Ukraine in 3 months using EU transport infrastructure. This is vital to feed many parts of the world. Ukraine exported 44 million tons in the 2020-2021 growing season. Russia is conducting a blockade of Odessa on the Black Sea to prevent Ukraine exports from leaving.

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The Russian economy had GDP decline of 2% and was relatively not affected by the shutoff of imports of oil and gas from Europe in 2022. Gas exports to Europe began declining in the summer. The EU ban on seaborne oil from Russia and price cap went into effect in December 2022. Russia made a huge stimulus of 4% of GDP in 2022. The result is that only now in 2023 is the full impact being felt on the Russian economy.  WSJ reports that in January and February Russian exports of oil and gas revenue which makeup half of the budget fell by 46% year over year, while state spending jumped 50%. Analysts estimate that it would take a price of $100 for Russia to balance its books. Yet the Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil has brought it down to $50- the price the Ministry of Finance says Urals crude sold in February. This is a deep discount to the $80 price of Brent Crude, the US benchmark.  A bigger problem is the downward trajectory the Russian economy faces in future years. Worker shortages are severe for industry and a shift to wartime production does not add to productivity or productive capacity. The cut off from access to western technology and western financial markets will have a severe impact in the productive capacity for the economy, for oil and industrial production in the years to 2030. Russia needed to protect against the gradual shift away from fossil fuels to fight climate change by shifting the economy in a new direction using its access to western technologies not just China's technologies. Instead it now finds itself in a period of 1 year in 2022 when oil revenues surged with prices jumping from the war, and then a steady slump in all the inputs of development- supply of labor, capital and technology declining rapidly after 2023 as the costs of the Ukraine invasion are absorbed into the economy. As this report points out it is the social contract that similar to China's social contract of growth and improvement in standards of living that led to people having a large measure of confidence in the government. It was not fully grasped but it was the access to American and European Union plus Japanese technology, manufacturing, capital and markets that made this possible. With this absent the situation changes to put Russia, and China to a lesser extent as long as it trades with the west, on a different trajectory.  ...

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UK's Keir Starmer makes 6 pledges to the British people- "Living standards should rise so that growth was felt by everyone, everywhere." Real household disposable income per person, GDP per capita by 2029. Build 1.5 million new homes in 5 years and fast track 150 planning decisions on major infrastructure projects. 92% of patients have to wait no more than 18 weeks for routine operations and appointments by March 2029. 29,000 officers for neighborhood policing and stopping anti-social behavior-1 for every 8000 people. 95% of low carbon electricity generation by 2030. 5% gas generation kept in reserve for unanticipated situations. It is Boris Johnson's target from 2022 in contrast to DJT's reverting to oil and gas to 2027 with industry following its continued but slower shift to gas and wind/solar. A pledge on living standards as the goal not growth is what Starmer sees as the dire need today. Growth that would put the UK ahead of all countries in the G7 is put aside for raising living standards for ALL the British people. A recognition that the two can mean very different things. Under the current plan fufilfillment of pledges is seen in the growth rate of 0.5% a year that is set in 2024. ...

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Comments on leaving European Union allies adrift and giving Russia a free hand draws strong response from Republicans and president Biden because they are inconsistent with American support for European allies since the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe during the administration of Harry Truman in the 1950's to the present day- the timeline includes Berlin Crisis in 1950, Hungarian freedom struggle of 1956, Czech freedom struggle, the struggles in Eastern Europe under different administrations through Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Reagan to Biden.

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The European commissioner for industrial strategy, Stéphane Séjourné, says “Whenever European public money is spent in Europe, it must contribute to European production and quality jobs." The Guardian supports this view for an industrial strategy to create jobs and economic benefits for Europe in 2026 to match "Made in China."

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The SCOTUS views in questioning on the Birthright Citizenship Case April 2026- Roberts, Gorsuch, Thomas and Alito. Roberts seemed to agree with the 1898 Wong decision by the Court that children of people not allowed to legally reside in the US are not citizens of the US when it was presented at the Court by Solicitor General Sauer.

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Guardian View in 2026 for Burnham:  people will not reward Labour for a new model of the state but for making life cheaper, easier, and more secure. Cutting unprotected departments, cutting public investment, is not the option. It is about making public services from water, energy, transport to education and healthcare work efficiently and better for ordinary people.

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The average price of a smartphone in India in 2022 was $206 excluding taxes, Apple's smartphones go for $898. With discounts Apple is now bringing the price down to below $500. In 2019 phones over $500 made up 3% of the market. This has increased to 6% in 2022. Apple is counting on this share of the market going up and prices being brought down below $500 to build a larger share of the market. Its market in 2023 is about 5% in India compared to 22% in China.

In China Apple has its own stores. It is only now opening its first store in Mumbai. This and building manufacturing facilities in India could be the way to increase its share of the market in India to where it provides an alternative comparable to the Chinese market. This is the first time after the pandemic and the supply chain issues, the idea of friendshoring, that Apple is reorienting its policy for making India a key part of its supply chain and market. 

 

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From 2007 to 2022 US electricity demand flattened with new energy efficient technologies. It is now poised to increase from 2022 to 2035 and the process is happening  with approval of new natural gas plants and new data centers, new manufacturing plants needing large amounts of renewable energy. This say Plumer and Popovich in NYT could very well upset president Biden's plans to get 100% of energy from renewables by 2035 and cut greenhouse gas emissions by half to tackle climate change. Utilities are moving ahead with putting up new natural gas plants, and new data centers are needed for the shift to remote work since 2020, electric automobile and chip making plants are coming up at a rapid pace. Without a sustained effort the climate change action needed may not take place with the long lead times to bring renewable solar, wind and other energy and put it in place for transmission. This report looks at the data centers coming up in Virginia and the EV manufacturing plants in Georgia as examples for the new demand and how it could upset plans for climate change action. ...

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Cable television's decline as seen from the experience of CNN. This report in the WSJ says not only is cable television declining in viewers, CNN is falling behind MSNBC and Fox which are also declining. The 24 hour cable news network format is seeing rapid shift to streaming services that generate little profit. Monthly prime time viewers for CNN cable television is down to 568,000 compared to one estimate of 166 million for its website and app streaming services. The result is a search by Warner Discovery, new owner of CNN, for a way to reverse the slide in people watching by showing both sides instead of skewing to one side, which is also not working. 68 million Americans subscribe to cable television packages including CNN down from 72 million in 2022 for which CNN gets $1.25 per subscriber. Advertising produces most of the revenue- $600 million in 2022 down from 900 million in 2020. Smaller audiences and poorer ratings with so many choices for viewers from CBS, ABC, NBC, MSNBC, CNBC, Fox, etc mean less advertising revenues.   ...

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As president Jinping begins a second five year term his focus is on the small communities like Chashan, only a 6 hour drive from Beijing, that were neglected in the rush to industrialization. He has vowed to get rid of poverty in China by 2020. About 43 million people live in rural communities that have mostly older people and live on 95 cents a day. There is another challenge say experts which is the much larger popuation that lives in rural and urban areas- including urban migrants without property and residence rights- who live on less than $5.50 per day, $165 a month, according to the World Bank. This is about 1070 yuan per month, or in Indian rupees for a comparison with India- which was at a similar stage of development in 1990- of Rs 10,000 per month. About 40% of China's population or 560 million people are in this group. With a rapidly aging society as a result of the earlier one child policy, China faces the risk of not advancing from the level of a middle income country, in the way that South Korea and Japan have moved to levels similar to Western Europe and the U.S. As China's growth level slows and with an aging society this remains a major challenge. As this report shows there is great pressure on local officials to eliminate the poverty level of people living below $30 or about 200 yuan a month, as targets are set at local levels and corruption weakens the effort. There is concern at the lack of an effort to improve the living conditions of the 200 million rural migrants living in cities, who under China's "hukou" system are not considered residents and are not getting education and health benefits. ...

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Kohli, Rahul, Iyer, Chakravarthy and Shami Indian players in Champions Trophy team.  Santner, Phillips, Ravindra and Henry NZ players in Champions Trophy tournament team.

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Germany ends subsidiary family reunification for 343,000 in Germany. Dobrindt, Germany's Interior Minister says-

"The country's ability to integrate had simply reached a breaking point, cities and municipalities across the country were at their limit."

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This analysis in The Times looks at the latest information on the omicron variant gathered in the UK and what it means for the capital London and the UK. It looks at the hospital admissions in January 2021 that could be expected in the UK compared to  January 2020. A big spike infections with a sharp fall is the scenario seen as expected based on experience in South Africa, with 2% of cases as hospital admissions as in the prior January, or in a "milder" scenario somewhat smaller percentage.