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Connection between inflation and spending (fiscal stuff) by the government is misunderstood or misstated, say Wharton Prof. Smetters. Doug Holtz-Eakin former CBO budget director agrees.  Does higher growth mean higher inflation? It depends. The climate change action renewable energy subsidies are expected to increase growth by 0.2%, yet this should reduce fossil fuel costs, mitigating effect on inflation of government spending. Will higher deficits increase inflation? Again it depends. In 2021 direct financial help for households during the pandemic led to a third of the higher inflation in 2021, 2022 and first half of 2023. Inflation peaked at 9.1%. In 2023 the deficit is up significantly but it is mostly of the accounting kind with lower tax revenues by $278 billion from capital gains taxes due to a stock market slump in 2022, and higher interest costs of $136 billion.

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Princes MBZ of the UAE and MBS of Saudi Arabia were seen as close with MBZ the mentor of Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia (MBS). Saudis and UAE differ on how high oil prices should go. Both MBZ MBS wider mindsets are close based on modernization of the Arab world. Oil price increases mean hardship for most of the world's population, a shift of wealth from more populous countries such as Turkey and India to countries with very small numbers of people as the UAE (9 million) and Saudi Arabia 35 million). It poses hardship in cost of living for people in Asia, Africa and in EU, the US. This calls for a vigorous effort to make the switch to solar energy to reduce inequality and wide disparities of wealth in Asia and the Middle East.

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At a critical juncture in the global fight against the pandemic eight in ten U.S. counties are in lockdown. About 29% of the U.S. economy is offline on April 5, 2020, according to Moody's Analytics. U.S. daily output has fallen by 29% compared to March 2019. Moody's Analytics predicts a 30% annualized decline in the second quarter GDP as businesses gradually reopen in the summer. Higher unemployment and loss of household wealth are likely to cause demand side drops making the recovery very gradual in this scenario. It all depends on how long this lasts and how effective the fight against the pandemic is including the steps taken to cut the spread of the virus, the action taken for rapid testing and isolating of clusters as happened in South Korea and Taiwan, which remain models for effective action. 

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Stephen Lezak of Oxford looks at the costs of mining for lithium, cobalt and other minerals needed for EV's. There is the danger of the EV transition happening at the increbible cost to producing countries in Africa and Asia. In the Congo the problem of child labor and in Indonesia the problem of destroying huge parts of tropical forest. Can the EV transition happen on the backs of environmental destruction of forest or child labor?  Lezak suggests bringing mining for lithium, cobalt, back to the US with strict controls and for Apple, and EV makers to have a passport that shows where their EV battery materials come from, the responsible sourcing of materials and the controls in place. This is a problem that won't go away and will require serious solutions for green to mean something entirely positive.

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Mitch Smith of the NYT looks at the Grand Rapids area for the 2024 election. Grand Rapids is atownof 660,000  which is the second largest city in Michigan. Originally populated by Dutch settlers it now has about 10% Hispanics in addition to about 10% blacks. The Hispanic population has increased over time. Some Republicans such as Ben Ingrebretson have drifted away from the party and voted for Biden in 2020. In February he voted for Nikki Haley, part of the 34% who voted for Haley in Kent County. He approves of Biden's view of America as "a beacon" for the world but does not approve of stimulus spending or forgiveness of student loans. Grand Rapids is also the area where governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, went to school and which gave her a 10 percentage vote margin.

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The NFP Front populaire alliance of socialist parties wins the most seats 200+ in early projections in the National Assembly in France. Macron's Ensemble party comes in second with about 150 seats, and the RN National Rally third with about 130 seats. This is the most closely watched election in European Union in decades. Voter turnout was 67% up from 48% in the last election. Only the Front Populaire called for investment in the French economy- not the Macron Ensemble or the Le Pen RN party- and taking serious cost of living action for gas prices, food prices, transport prices, for the struggling lower and middle classes in France. With corporations and the super rich paying their fair share- also a modest share- investment of $140 billion is planned for infrastructure, manufacturing, jobs and wages, climate change action in the French Nation.

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Like Jill Biden Gwen Walz is a teacher. Jill teaching community college and Gwen high school students. Minnesota governor Tim Walz is also a high school teacher. They met in Nebraska where Gwen taught English, and Tim taught social studies. Gwen told Minnesota Public Radio that they shared a classroom  with a divider right down the middle.In Minnesota they taught at the same school in Mankato. 

As part of prison reform she advocated educational opportunities to permanently alter lives. She has also been strong advocate for background checks and a red flag law to limit gun use. To get senators in Minnesota legislature to act she told them at a 2019 rally- “If they do not put it up for a vote, there are seven senators sitting in seats where Tim Walz won — and we are coming,”

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Michael Barnier, 73 years, is considered the French Joe Biden because of his service since entering parliament at the age of 27. He served under president Chirac in the 1990's, was foreign minister, twice European Commissioner in Brussels, and EU's negotiator for Brexit. He tried for the nomination of the Les Republicains to run against Macron for president. Macron chose Barnier because of his negotiating skills which will be needed as no party has a majority and the 126 parliamentary votes of the National Front of Marie Le Pen are needed for the government to be stable. Barnier also share Le Pen's concern about migrants having called for ceasing migrant entry for 4 years and quotas for lawful migrants set by the government and a referendum on migration.

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Union Railways minister in India, Mr. Goyal, raises questions about the estimated cost of a new elevated rail train in Bombay that would cost more per kilometre than the planned bullet train between Ahmedabad and Bombay. He says this reflects corruption and lack of transparency. India has for many decades since independence been held back by corruption that has reduced much needed infrastructure development, and the goal of the new Modi government is to bring transparency and vigilance into government spending to get infrastructure development needs met in the next decade.

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The poor decisions made by former CEO, Mark Hurd, leading to underinvestment in research and development and lack of funding for H-P Labs, leave H-P in a weaker position. The cuts were lauded at the time by the financial media but left the company with weaker technological capabilities. The distractions since 2005, with changing CEO's and lack of proper direction in the company, a weak board of directors, a large bureaucracy and inefficient sales force, and the emergence of low cost competitors from Taiwan, are hurting H-P's performance and capabilities. Meg Whitman, the current CEO, plans another round of layoffs, following the layoffs under Hurd. About 30,000 of 324,000 existing employees will be retired or laid off. H-P generated only $1.7 billion in net earnign on sales of $127 billion in fiscal 2011. In smartphones, cloud computing services and tablet computers, H-P has either stumbled or still struggles to develop clear winners.

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US Universities awakening to the need to reduce costs after making college unaffordable to middle class. NIH says indirect costs are in the range of 60-70% at some elite universities, the proposal would cap this at 15% for all universities for federal funding. The purpose is to reduce administrative costs that are increasing and have universities take a hard look at finances not just increase salaries, hire more and increase prices for students to go to college. The savings generated could be $6.5 billion in this one action alone and some universities need to cut salaries and hire less to bring down their cost structure before a whole generation of young men are deprived of opportunities to go to college. Not everyone can be sent to apprenticeships and not all research needs to be funded. China and India and some European nations will be funding the same research with less. There is a Deepseek moment now not just for AI - for all research.

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"Having a country invading their neighbor with impunity that is a dire message to the rest of the world, and we are not making the mistakes of the past." 

Macron speaks of Russian threats to other places, to Moldova and Romania. 

Macron shows a chart of Russian rearmament with increases from 1.2 million men in the army to 1.5 million  and 1200 military aircraft to 1500 aircraft.

'Peace cannot come at any price, by abandoning Ukraine, the collapse of Ukraine."

"We have seen this happen in the past. Who can forget the invasion began in 2014, there was a ceasefire that was agreed to in Minsk and that the same Russia did not keep the ceasefire."

"We cannot take them at their word. Ukraine has a right for peace and security. It is in our interest. And we are working with our European allies."

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WSJ talk of "reverse Nixon" shift of Russia from China Feb 2025- reminscent of how China moving away from Russia in Mao's last years by 1971- with DJT overtures to Russia. This report does not say that Lt. Keith Kellogg has said clearly and many times the main reason- it is a senseless war that is costing an entire generation of young men from Russia and Ukraine with loss of about 1 million young people in war zones including civilians. All coming after a pandemic has taken away millions of people of an older generation from China, India, US and Russia. PM Modi has also described it in this way.

Europe sees this but has become so entrenched in a view that there will be a winner in this war when there are no winners. America as a beacon of hope in the world takes a position that is in the interests of India, China, EU, Russia and the US.

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Jurio Osawa talks to Toshiba Corp.'s CEO, Norio Sasaki about Toshiba's plans to increase investments in infrastructure businesses, including nuclear energy. Sasaki sees continuing need to use nuclear energy because of limited supplies of oil and gas to meet needs in emerging markets. He sees demand growing for nuclear energy in China, Brazil, India, Turkey and Vietnam. Toshiba owns Westinghouse Electric, a maker of nuclear power equipment, and acquired Landis+Gyr, a Swiss company which makes advanced power meters. Demand for Westinghouses' AP1000 reactors with safety equipment in China is expected to grow from the 4 being built today to 20 in 2020, and 70 in 2030. He says the consumer electronics businesses have suffered because of the strong yen, and for the failure of Japanese companies to taking strong action to improve their competitive position and staying ahead of market trends. At the same time the consumer electronics business generates cash because investment requirements are low compared to infrastructure businesses, which is why Toshiba will continue to operate in profitable parts of the consumer electronics business....

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Fomer Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says America needs to take up a vigorous foreign policy in his book "Worthy Fights." Both Panetta and Hillary Clinton, and Gen. Dempsey of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Petraeus of the CIA, supported U.S. taking a strong stand in Syria by supporting Syrian opposition forces in the summer of 2011 and were overruled by president Obama and his election advisers because of the approaching 2012 election. Here Mark Landler provides more insights into Hillary Clinton's deeply held belief shared with Panetta that the U.S. had to take strong action where necessary to deter foes, to get into the ring to use Panetta's expression. The U.S. support for action in Libya to support Britain and France comes from the efforts of Clinton, and any lack of followup one of president Obama's errors in foreign policy. In April 2016 president Obama said that he considered his failure to followup in Libya to help the new Libyan government his biggest mistake in his presidency. Here Mark Landler looks at Hillary Clinton's entire career as showing a conviction and belief on the need for action where necessary in the U.S. global engagement. Compared to the bluster of the candidates Trump, Cruz and Sanders, with little experience to back this up in their careers in real estate, law or the Senate , Landler says Clinton is the last remaining hawk. Here he describes Hillary Clinton's contact and empathy for the troops from her trip to the American base in Tuzla, Bosnia, in March 1996. In fact many have forgotten that Yugoslavia is what it is today after the Milosevic years and the ethnic wars with Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, members of the EU and Serbia negotiating to enter EU, because of the bombing campaign taken by Bill Clinton through NATO in 1999 to prevent ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, and peacemaking following the Bosnian War using diplomat Holbrooke to negotiate the 1995 Dayton Accords. Here Landler describes the meetings with Gen. Keane who pushed for the troop surge that worked in Iraq under president George W. Bush. Clinton supported Keane's proposal made in April 2015, for a no-fly-zone in Syria that would help opposition forces till a settlement could be negotiated. Keane pointed out to Clinton that there was a flaw in Obama's policies- that negotiation would work only if the no-fly-zone was used to support opposition forces. By the end of 2015 Hillary Clinton publicly adopted this position. During a period when Americans are weary of foreign entanglements but understand the need to provide leadership where needed, Hillary Clinton, provides a balance between the pendulum swinging too sharply in one direction in the Bush years and in another direction in the Obama years, says Landler. A view also articulated by Leon Panetta, who was chief of staff for President Clinton during the Bosnian conflict and the Dayton Accords, where the U.S. showed strength of purpose in war and also in negotiating the peace without major entanglements....

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Jimmy Carter visited North Korea during a tense moment in US North Korea relations after US concerns about fuel rods being taken out of Yongbon nuclear development plant in 1994. Through his contacts in China and the US  Carter was encouraged to visit Pyongyang, North Korea to negotiate directly with North Korean leader Kim Il Sung. He did this during the Clinton Administration and negotiated with Kim who this report in the BBC says was keen on settling the dispute with the US that could lead to war in the Korean peninsula. 

Jimmy Carter is seen as a one term president. Yet he accomplished  a lot using his experience as a former president in improving relations with China, and in relations with other countries around the world. This is almost as effective as a second term even more so, and covered a span of 40 years from 1980 to 2020.

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Strategic moves by ABC News president, Ben Sherwood, as he takes on NBC News and its top rated news programs.

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Harris Primary Academy in southeast London is a primary school that shows how reopening can be done safely. The primary school's head teacher Mr. French says nothing was left to chance and the logistics detail were handled carefully. The children practice social distancing with games and "helicopter arms."  

Parents and teachers feel comfortable in the carefully set environment. Children have all they need at their tables which are set a distance apart and stay in "bubbles" of ten children. Not all children are back but for the parents who felt it was right to start their children at school it has been a good experience, and one that can be emulated in other places.

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WSJ reporters Chow, Schechner and Kostov provide this exceptional report from the 11th Arondissement in France, scene of the terrorist attacks in Nov. 2015, describing the conflicting visions of French society- one secular and the other in other parts of the country anti-immigrant. The National Front of Marie Le Pen sees immigration as "a mortal threat to France" and won about 25% of the vote in France in the 2014 European parliament elections, a first for a anti-immigrant party in Europe. It did very well in rural areas and small towns of northwest France and southern France. The debate on immigration is now dominating headlines in Europe, including Denmark, Norway, Germany, France, Rumania, Hungary, and other countries. The Syrian refugee crisis has exacerbated the situation.

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Saeed Jan Qureshi, with only a high school education and a passion for books, started an extraordinary bookstore in Islamabad, Pakistan. Th store is now one of the largest in the world, with 42,000 square feet over 3 stories, displaying 200,000 titles, and an inventory of 4 million books in 5 warehouses, books mostly in English. Rod Norland of the NYT provides an exceptional and heartwarming story of the man, his son, and a passion for books that gives a different picture of Pakistan, the country and its people. Saeed's son Qureshi provides advice to readers, referring them to a book "Fallen Leaves," by American historian Will Durant. The story shows the passion for reading and books in South Asia.

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Shinzo Abe had a vision of a broader Asia. In Abe's own words- " A broader Asia that broke away from geographical boundaries is now beginning to take on a distinct form. Our two countries have the ability - and the responsibility - to ensure that it broadens yet further and to nurture and enrich these seas to become seas of clearest transparence." He added "By coming together in this way, this 'broader Asia' will evolve into an immense network that will span the entirety of the Pacific Ocean, incorporating the United States of America and Australia. Open and transparent, this network will allow people and goods, capital and knowledge to flow freely." It is this vision that is taking shape today in 2022. And India's unique role in Asia was grasped by Abe. Abe reminded Japanese and Indians of the unique contribution of Vivekananda, calling him a great spiritual leader India gave to the world, and stretching back to many others way back in time to Bodhidharma, and then way back from that to one whose name all know.  During one of these visits to India Abe said- "Vivekananda came to be acquainted with Tenshin Okakura, a man ahead of his time in early modern Japan and a Renaissance man, Okakura was then guided by Vivekananda and also enjoyed a friendship with Sister Nivedita, Vivekananda's loyal disciple and a distinguished female social reformer. Many people are aware of all that." Praising India's spirit of tolerance Abe said- "From the reign of Ashoka the Great to Mahatma Gandhi's Satyagraha movement of non violent resistance the Japanese people are well aware of the unbroken spirit of tolerance in Indian spiritual history." Vedanta and Buddhism went from India through Bodhidharma to China and then from China to Japan with Dogen and other spiritual leaders from Japan bringing it from China then called the Pure Land in the 13th century. Vedanta and Buddhism now finds it way centuries later from India to Japan- from where it moves onwards to China and East Asia. ...

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Francois Bayrou the new PM of France speaks a dialect of the Pyrenees mountains, is mayor of Pau, and was a school teacher before entering politics. He has a disdain for extreme positions on both sides left and right, including polarizing politics of Sarkozy. He gave key support to Macron at the right time when he needed it to run for president. He gets along well with Le Pen and has helped Marie Le Pen run for president in the past when she needed support because he felt this was essential for the democratic process. He was not the first choice of Macron and insisted on taking the job over other choices.

Pau is located 31 miles from the Spanish border with a clear view of the Pyrenees mountains. It is an ancient city with a University at Bearns, and a medieval heritage.

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Spiegel Online's interview with Emmanuel Macron, on the TGV 8434 train from Bordeaux to Paris. He is joined by Mrs. Macron. Macron says he is aware that he does not have a bloc of core support like Ms. Le Pen, yet he says this means he will try that much harder for voters on the right and the left. He says their is no political renewal in the political class in France and that it remains closed. He says particular attention must be paid to rural France outside big cities like Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille and Paris, where people have had a different encounter with globalization. On the European Union he sees the need to revitalize it by having a closer union focussed on countries that are interested in this. He sees the need for a joint finance minister and permanent head of Euro Group. This might be a smaller EU without countries such as Britain, and others who are not interested in a closer union. He does not agree with the idea that any member state of the EU can stop other member states from proceeding. Macron does not believe in moving to the right as in the Dutch election because he says people are "not idiots" and in France this has not worked for Nicholas Sarkozy, which has some truth to it as authenticity (and humility) matters to French voters. A personal approach worked for Fillon early on till the scandal over payments he received. Macron brings to this personal approach and relative youthfulness, his sense that he must appeal to all segments, rural and urban, educated and less educated, and at the same time be true to core values such as preserving the European Union, and authenticity in terms of views on Algeria. He also says he is aware he faces risks but that this is something he believes in deeply.   Macron has not hesitated to express his views on topics such as Algeria, calling it a crime against humanity, and later elaborating on what he meant. Macron says his movement En Marche is different in style and manner from the closed nature of French politics. He believes in transparency, term limits, and removing conflicts of interest in French politics, as a way to make a fresh start. The first round of voting is on April 23, 2017, followed by a second round of voting between two candidates.  ...