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The last thing we want to do is to bring back the images of the 1953 American sponsored coup, which ousted Prime Minister Mohamed Mossadegh and returned Shah Pahlavi to power, says Senator John Kerry in an op-ed article in the NYT. He cautions America getting involved in Iran, letting Iranians decide on their own, as the CIA supported coup that overthrew Mossadegh's elected government and put a king in his place because he would be more friendly to American oil and other interests in the region, may arouse bitter memories of America's influence in avery negative way in an earlier period. Most Americans may not remember the American sponsored coup. Mossadegh was a socialist during the Cold War and wnated to nationalize the oil industry run by foreign companies in the country. During those days the interests of American oil companies, the Cold War with the Soviet Union, and British-French colonial era interests in the Middle and Africa and Asia, were all intertwined. The Korean war had just ended, Suez crisis of 1956 with the nationalization of the Suez Canal by Egypt, was a few years away, the French were fighting to keep their colonial empire in Vietnam, and America was supporting Pakistan with Sabre fighter jets bringing a version of the cold war to the Indian subcontinent even though India was the largest democracy in Asia. Partly because its leader Jawaharlal Nehru, was an independent minded socialist, who avoided joining the cold war with his non-alignment policies. Adlai Stevenson, Democratic candidate for President against Eisenhower was very enthusiastic about Nehru in his speeches, but Republican Secretary of State Dulles saw things differently, just as today there are huge differences between the way a Rumsfeld and an Obama see the world. Many of the problems today in places like Pakistan Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq had their beginning during this period....

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Bill Ford answers some very pertinent and good questions with confidence and clarity in a meeting with Maria Bartiromo of CNBC and Business Week. His answers are direct and show his thinking today and throughout his difficult experience of the last few years struggling to establish his presence at Ford Motor and then struggling to get the right person to run the company. "It hurts us to see the employees of the company suffer," and this has made this experience at Ford have a personal impact as Ford traumatized over the layoffs of employees with many years of service. And he himself was not easily accepted in the prevailing culture of the time at Ford, and asked to drop his contacts with environmentalists when he joined the Board, which he says he told them he had no intention of doing. He knows his managers had foresight in borrowing a "ton of money" just before the credit crisis struck, and which will be a key to going through any further deterioration of the market in the next 2-3 years. Much clearer than any of the other manufacturers is Ford's new vision under, Bill Ford, Mullaly and Farley, with the finance guys in the background, of Ford as a car company and focused on smaller fuel efficient automobiles. And Bill Ford's vision and aspiration has a lot do with it, who he helped bring in and what he supported and pushed for in the old Ford culture helped Ford to grasp a vision of its future with clarity and purpose like a new beginning. Ford will continue to make trucks but it believes as Bill Ford does that the market will never go back to its old ways, that the absolute price of oil will have less to do with it than the psychology which will push for smaller more fuel efficient cars. And as he points out its European cars are" extremely well appointed and very, very succesful and extremely profitable"....

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How Sweden in 1992 and is Finance Minister Lundgren faced a similar crisis in its banking system after a housing bubble in that country collapsed. At that time the way Sweden approached it set aside 65 billion kronor or $11.7 billion dollars then or $18.3 billion in today's dollars, 4% of its gross domestic product, for rescuing failing banks. The US plan for $700 billion is roughly 5% of gross domestic product. But the way Sweden did it it extracted full price from shareholders and rescue was arrranged only after the Swedish government got a big equity share in the banks that were rescued. Lundgren is concerned that the US plan does not provide for the US government to take big equity stakes in the banks that receive government money. By selling off these shares in better times the government of Sweden has recovered most of the money depending on how its calculated. However the US government has taken big ownership stakes in Fannie, Freddie, and in AIG. And the plan is not yet spelled out. In terms of its size its similar to the Swedish plan an in this sense its similar, a big government effort to take a decisive and complete approach to the problem. In the short run this may create problems for the dollar according to currency experts like John Taylor, but some experts like currency strategist at Deutsche Bank think that in the longer term this rescue plan hel[ps American macroeconomic fundamentals and in doing so will help the dollar. Another factor is the European economy and as Europe also faces some problems of its own, from a housing bubble standpoint Britain, Ireland and Spain fall in the same boat as the Americans, and Germany may also have some bad loan problems of its own, so the macroeconomic fundamentals may weaken in Europe over time and this might also favor the dollar vs the euro in the longer term. ...

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Content Links 1. SYRIA'S ECONOMIC SITUATION AND ISOLATION. The economy is stagnating, oil revenues which supported inefficient industrial public sector, is expected to run sometime after 2008. " Apotential crisis is around the corner because of oil." -Nabil Sukkar, Damascus based economic consultant and former World Bank official. Bush Administration policies for withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon and criticism of Syria may have further isolated Syria a Sunni Muslim country an pushed it to cooperate with Iran and support the Shiite parties in Lebanon. 2. NATIONAL UNITY HIGHER AS OPPOSITION TO ASSAD GOVERNMENT SUPPORTS SYRIAN GOVERNMENT ON LEBANON CONFLICT. "Even the opposition now believes in national unity," stated by Syrian opposition Member of Parliament.

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Shipments of LG phones were up 54% in the 1st quarter of 2008 from a year ago, about 4 times the average growth of 14% in the industry., according to Strategy Analytics. The market share goes up to 8.6% from 6.4%. This puts it near overtaking Motorola for 3rd place ater Nokia and Samsung. Its biggest hit so far is the Chocolate, a skinny phone that looks like a chocolate barwith a dial pad that glows red. About 18 million have been sold worldwide sine introduction in May 2006. It also developed a pricey handset called Prada designed with the Italian fashion house and introduced in March of 2007. What is interesting is the way LG has approached product development. The Chocolate's creator Skott Ahn got the top job at the LG cell phone business unit in early 2007. And he has been put in charge of all areas of design developmet with the authority to make decisions in the way he would run this business. Ahn doubled the headcount of designers to 150 and engineers to 4000. He launched an inhouse design competition. The winner of the 2008 competition is the Secret, made from sleek yet sturdy carbon fiber and tempered glass and with a 5 megapixel camera and software to let users create their own music videos. This phone was intorduced in Europe this month. LG's profits on cell phones are expected to double to $2 billion according to Mirae Securities in Seoul, with a 50% jump in sales, and the stock is up 57%....

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Only 8 months into office, the leader of the Democratic party in Japan, resigns as Prime Minister. After perceived indecisiveness by the Japanese public on the Okinawa base change issue and on issues related to cutting wasteful spending. The base issue related to a campaign promse to move the American base out of Okinawa and even out of Japan. The North Korean government's aggressive behaviour led to a changing perception of the base issue, with a lengthy disagreement with Washington and eventual reneging on the campaign promise. By this time Hatoyama's popularity dropped to 25% and he resigned. Also resigning is Mr Ozawa, the Democratic Party's secretary-general. The indecisiveness and lack of leadership on issues made it difficult to sustain the electoral support which led to the Democratic party winning an overall majority, mainly to bring change for the post Liberal Democrat era.

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It is a landmark agreement and more innovative than the GM and Chrysler agreeements, with the UAW getting a significant stake in Ford, something that is a first. UAW supported money going into creating 5 flexible body shops so that investment to get Ford new models and manufacturing capability is put in place in this agreement- showing union management unanimity in understanding Ford's situation. The UAW Ford Agreement details: UAW gets about 18% ownership of Ford and becomes Ford's largest shareholder with about 4 times the shares of the Ford family. Ford will build 5 new flexible body shops in unionized assembly plants, invest separately $200 million in new technology and equipment in unionized stamping plants, and make substantial new investments in engine operations. All new hires will get a starting rate of $14.20 an hour and a full rate of $15.34 an hour, nearly half the curtrent level and its good till Ford reaches 20% of the Ford UAW workforce. When this is reached for entry level positions Ford must first move those hired at the lower wage upto the higher wage before filling in more positions at the lower rate. The VEBA health trust will work this way. Ford will only put in $6.5 billion in cash into the trust and $450 million each year in current dollars. The rest is done innovatively to conserve cash and give the union a stake in Ford that will be a first time in such a deal. It may change the labor vs. management atmopsphere in the long run as Ford recovers. A $3.3 billion convertible debenture note will be issued giving the union a stake of about 18% at current share prices, which terms are still not clear. Ford will also issue a $3 billion secured note. And to cover retiree health obligations until the trust makes payments Ford will pay $2.2 billion. The Jobs Bank is restricted to 2 years. After 2 new job offers are declined the worker goes off the payroll. Ford will also trim about 10,000 to 14,000 workers with buyout packages. ...

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Nawaz Sharif's wife Kulsoom is expected to win the parliamentary seat from which the former prime minister was ousted by a decision of the Supreme Court.

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Stephens says the lack of swift military action to protect the U.S. consulate in Benghazi by all means available was not undertaken by President Obama from Wall Street Journal accounts of what happened. The reason given was not to violate Libya's sovereignty, instead an effort was made by the State Department to get the Libyan government to send reinforcements. This was the situation at 5 pm on Sept 11, in an Oval Office meeting, when news of the attack on the consulate reached President Obama. A suggestion was made according to WSJ reports for U.S. planes to fly in from the closest airbase to scare away the attackers but was not adopted. The Obama adminstration was slow to act decisively in the struggle for freedom from the Gaddafi dictatorship and agreed to support the French-British effort after the war was underway for some time. This is likely to have left the U.S. with a lack of sufficient intelligence on the ground about the movement of remnants of Gaddafi's army, mercenaries from Mali, and terrorist groups, which are suspected of involvement in the attack, and which had threatened Ambassador Stevens according to his diary. The U.S. consulate in Benghazi was burned down in a deliberately planned attack and one of America's finest diplomats Stevens lost his life in the attack. ...

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Higher per capita wheat consumption in Middle East countries means that the impact of rising wheat prices hits these countries harder. Wheat futures have gone up by 91% in less than one year. Tunisians for example eat 478 pounds per person a year compared to 177 pounds in the U.S., according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. Governments in the Middle East buy wheat at world prices and subsidize it heavily to meet the needs of their people. Wheat at these prices cost Egypt $361 per metric ton in February, which was up significantly from $172 in July 2010. This adds $1.7 billion to Egypt's import bill in 12 months.

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Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif faces a trial on corruption charges in Pakistan in 2018, just prior to new elections. The military and the judiciary both support the trial which involves payments for 4 upscale neighborhood London apartments owned by Sharif. 

Mr. Sharif's party leads in polls with about 36% support, higher than the next leading party Tehreek which has 24% support and is led by Imran Khan a former cricketer. The Pakistan People's Party of the Bhutto family comes in third. The result of this could be a weaker coalition government. The Supreme Court has banned Sharif for life from holding political office. Pakistan has seen governments toppled and military rule for half of its 70 years since independence. The rivalry with India and the role of the military has affected political institutions and democracy in Pakistan making peace with India difficult to achieve for any elected government.

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Problems with the rural development and agriculture projects conducted by USAID in Afghanistan include overspending in 2009, followed by sharp cutbacks in 2010 and 2011 as budget cuts were made. In 2009 USAID made a grant of $300 million to Arlington based International Relief and Development (IRD) to help farmers in Kandahar and Helmand improve productivity over just one year, at the insistence of Richard Holbrooke. The focus was on paying for day labor jobs to clean canals, offer subsidized seeds to encourage switching from opium poppies, distributing tractors, and building gravel roads. Because many districts of the two provinces were considered unsafe for work, much of the money was concentrated on a few districts and in one year. As a result farmers in Kandahar got more seed than they needed and they in turn sold tons of seed and tractors in Pakistan for cash. A senior program official at IRD says it wasn't realistic to pour so much money in one year. But USAID officials say overspending and poor oversight made the program seriously flawed. There was also a difference in the views of the military and USAID on the value of day jobs. The U.S. military sees this as away of protecting its efforts, of literally protecting its flanks, as this keeps unemployed youth from joining the Taliban. At the same time senior USAID officials wanted to see multiple companies bid for the next $350 millon on a follow-on project. When the USAID team of specialists again awarded it to IRD, senior offficials at USAID decided to cancel the program. The program was then redesigned in the expectation that other companies would bid for it. In the meantime USAID gave IRD 3 quarterly extensions, the last expiring June 30, 2011. The US military sees the day labor program as crucial for its military efforts, so there is kind of an impasse with USAID reluctantly giving in. IRD meantime is shutting down activites in Helmand and will do this also in Kandahar probably by the end of May, as its contract has not been renewed because of problems with the program. USAID has a high staff turnover rate of 85% a year in Kabul which complicates things with the shifting priorities of different officials. Some programs are being scaled back- a job retraining program seen as requiring $125 million over 18 months is being scaled back to $40 million. Others such as a USAID project for coordinating disparate rural rehabilitation projects for $140 million is held back because of lack of agreement with the Afghan government about how it should proceed. In parts of Kandahar USAID had found several contractors doing the same work. See the groups on Dexter Filkins, and on Commander Adams, which touch on serious development issues and the war....

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Asset reports of Fed governors and candidates for Fed chairman show Ben Bernanke and Daniel Tarullo at the low end of $1-$3 million, Stein, Duke and Yellen at $5-$12 million in the middle, and at the high end are Summers $8-$31 million, and Powell between $17-$40 million.

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Muhammad Azhar Ali, factory manager for National Foods plant near Karanchi, Pakistan, describes what it is like running a manufacturing operation in Pakistan. National Foods is the largest manufacturer of pickles and other spice products in Pakistan. A big problem is the lack of security and terrorism. This remains a constant cause of anxiety for business people in Pakistan. Its like being in a war zone says the National Foods chairman Abdul Majeed. Another major problem is lack of reliable electricity supplies. Supply of electricity is only one third of national demand in Pakistan. Larger companies such as Lucky Cement generate their own electricity, with Lucky Cement producing 150 megawatts from its plants. Smaller companies like National Foods rely on diesel generators. To conserve electricity many factory, floor office and bathroom lights are turned off. For workers the lack of electric supplies and high inflation affect lives in many ways. National Foods has a weighing department and assesses workers picked up from many parts of Karanchi to see if they are fit for work or are unduly stressed from poor living conditions. This is a side of Pakistani life that is rarely touched on-the daily lives of workers and managers. Ali works harder than other production managers in other countries because of the power shortages and lack of security. He would like to devote time to increase productivity and be more like other production managers. The war with the Taliban has cost Pakistan $68 billion in destroyed infrastructure, security costs, lost foreign investment according to one estimate. ...

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Investors put in $136 billion into startup companies in 2018, and $141 billion in 2019, as reported in this WSJ article on startups. Before this it peaked at $75 billion in 2000 and did not recover after the 2009 financial crisis till 2014 when it reached about 75 billion dollars.  Much of the increase in money that did not go into infrastructure at low interest rates below zero appears to have been wasted as the ideas for startups declined in quality in the years 2014-2019. Softbank put up a Vision Fund which has run up billions of dollars in losses including a disastrous investment in WeWork. The resistance to shifting all the money at low interest rates to infrastructure has faded with the election of president Trump supported by a Republican party that puts the American worker first for job retention and expansion, and America first in world trade. The pandemic has changed the environment for startup companies as most startup companies are not likely to survive the environment they are in. The big ones such as Uber have built up losses, and ones such as Airbnb are borrowing $2 billion at 10 percent interest in emergency funding. Experience and sound thinking for investments were left behind as capital was wasted in many projects. The time has come to return to investments that have built the basis of the twentieth and twenty first century's advances in quality of life, in infrastructure and strong public services. ...