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The Economist cites the Dartmouth Atlas Project which shows differences in cost across the country for health outcomes and spending involving Medicare. It cost $5000 per person in Salem, Oregon in 2006, $8000 in San Francisco, and more than $16,000 in Miami, with outcomes for health tending to be better in places where the costs were lower. This is one of the statistics that Peter Orszag of the Congressional Budget Office uses to come up with his estimate of 30% waste in health care spending in the United States. Prof. Skinner at Dartmouth and Prof. Garber at Stanford point out that of most health systems around the world the American system is "uniquely inefficient" and wasteful. The Economist cites information that the American system is twice as costly per person for healthcare than the Swedish system, and that it costs twice as much in Minnesota as in Miami. A poll done for the Economist shows 52% of the people in the UA are dissatified with the quality of care, 40% think the system needs fundamental change, and 29% think that it should be fundamentally rebuilt. The lack of uniform coverage is also causing turmoil in the system. About 49 million are uninsured, and a quarter or more are able to buy insurance and do not buy it because it is so costly, has exclusions and coverage is inadequate. But these people also end up in the emergency rooms along with the indigent costing the whole system tens of billion of dollars for costly late interventions that could have been avoided with preventive care early on. With the economic crisis and rise in joblessness, the dire condition of state and local budgets, the situation has probably drastically worsened, and the system near breakdown. ...

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Chancellor Merkel tells the newspaper "Sachsische Zeitung," that she sees a follow through on policies on refugees after reestablishing control over EU borders as one of the lessons learned from last years refugee crisis. This has reduced the flow of refugees and Merkel says the process of deportation of non-German nationals who had no residency permit had to be done rigorously and speeded up.  Having said this Merkel defended her policy on refugees as "coherent," and was clear about it- "I do not see a change of course, but coherent work over many, many months." Responding to Pegida and anti-immigrant sentiment in Dresden, Merkel said it is important to remember the lessons of history, that "we are the people" slogan used by the far-right is misplaced, that in a free society "we all are the people."

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Six cities have rejected the Olympics, with Calgary in Canada being the last one. The problem with hosting the Olympics is how much it costs. Cost overruns are common. 20141 Sochi WInter Olympics estimated budget was $10 billion, in the end it cost $51 billion. 

Brazil is the latest example of the problem. With huge needs in sanitation, epidemic prevention, infrastructure and public services, the country did badly by spending money on new soccer stadiums in the northeast which were not used after the World Cup soccer championship, and in the summer Olympics. 

Learning from these lessons voters in Calgary, Canada, rejected hosting  the Winter Olympics. Voters or local councils in Innsbruck, Austria, Rome, Italy, Bern, Switzerland, Hamburg, Germany, Oslo and Stockholm have rejected the idea of hosting the Olympics. Other problems are the environmental impact with deforestation to create Olympic sites.

 

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A change in the tone of how the US sees China's military and nuclear weapons buildup in December 2025 from the US War Department as the US and China work to preserve a trade truce and better relations with planned US president DJT visit to Beijing in 2026. US has 3700 vs about China's 600 nuclear weapons growing to 1000 in coming years. US sees the Monroe Doctrine as its major foreign policy goal in 2026- US setting rules in the Western Hemisphere for Peace and Progress without the lawlessness of drug and people trafficking in Venezuela and Mexico of the last 2 decades across the Bush, Obama and Biden administrations. This is a major change in policy to ensure the safety and well being of American communities in 51 states of the Union, in addition to jobs and factory expansion across America by fighting unfair trade practices in the world economy.

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Vladimir Medinsky of Russia, 54 years, sees the Ukraine war though a different lens. He is the head of the negotiating team for Russia with Ukraine in Istanbul. He sees as an example that Russia prevails in long wars- the 21 year conflict of Peter the Great with the Swedish Empire 1700-1721. The Battle of Poltava in 1709 led to the Russian victory even though the war ended in 1721, with Russia not Sweden dominant in the Northern Baltic region.

 

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Astra Zeneca's close alliance with Bristol Myers in developing and marketing drugs for diabetes. Astra Zeneca shares a 50% interest with Bristol Myers in products from Amylin Pharmaceutical, a diabetes drug specialist.

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Improvements in birth rate and more immigrants in Germany are making the demographic picture look better in Germany. About 13 million people are expected to reach retirement age in just a few years, according to Prof Enzo Weber, Institute of Employment Research. This means 13 million new pensioners. Birthrate today is about 1.4 children per woman. At this level of birthrate and even a low rate of immigration of 100,000 per year Germany's population of 83 million today would decline over time. Between 1990 and 2008 more people left Germany than came in with a net outflow. Some level of immigration would be the only way to keep the level of people in the workforce of 43 million today to become stable in the future. This would be needed to support the increasing number of pensioners. Yet the general aging of the population is expected to continue. And a high level of immigration in too short a time such as from the Syrian refugee crisis creates other tensions in the social fabric of society. Germany's very homogenous society faces a challenge that goes beyond the politics of the refugee crisis of today. Too many immigrants in too short a time is not the solution, immigration has become too politicized in today's context, good and early integration of immigrants through language and culture training needs to be established. Prof. Weber points out that the influx of immigrants from Southern and Eastern Europe has helped the labor market, and there is no reason that the labor market could not dry up with the number of people retiring soon. Tackling that will involve making family and career life choices easier and enabling flexible work-life choices, increasing retirement age, and some level of healthy immigration. A demographic summit will be held on March 16th in Berlin to look at the problem. ...

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BP suspends talks with Gazprom on a pipeline to get Rusian gas to the UK under the Nord Stream project BP's partner AAR refused to grant a waiver from the TNK-BP shareholder agreement for BP to pursue discussions with Gazprom.

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  US reaches agreement that would restore oil supplies and bring down oil prices. The supply chains may have to be reconstituted for replacing much of the 20% of the oil that flows through Hormuz if the US, Europe,China and India, Japan, rest of the world are to gain from this experience. The only way to understand the change of mind of the DJT US government and the Saudis/UAE/Qatar for bringing an end to the war without immediately fulfilling required nuclear conditions is from the Saudi point of view it has sought to avoid damage to its oil facilities from Iranian drone and missile attacks. From the US point of view it may see that the US + ramped up Venezuelan production by 2027-2028 with increased push for supplies in other parts of the world with better security than Hormuz, could make up for most of the loss in supply from Hormuz. For the remainder acceleration of the renewal energy in Europe and in China, India could reduce dependence on oil from Saudis/Iran.  US Energy Information Administration forecast is for oil prices currently $103 for Brent crude oil to stabilize at $89 at the end of 2026 and $79 in 2027. The year started in 2026 at $60 per barrel. The UAE oil agency ADNOC says it would take 4 months to get 80% of production back on stream and full flows by 1st quarter 2027. Rystad Energy estimates repair and restoration at oil facilities to cost $58 billion. The MAGA base which opposed wars by Bush and Obama in the region would then look at it this way. The billions that Obama poured into Iran for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program would not happen again, as the US would continue its sanctions till all nuclear materials are removed from Iran. Iran would stall in negotiations that are now put off with only a Memorandum to show for commitment of Iran- though an agreement would only be a piece of paper that Iran may not implement as the failed Obama agreement showed- but yet not have the billions of dollars to support its nuclear program. It would give the US, Israel, and the world 10-15 years in which to respond to another nuclear program by Iran. Iran will need $270 billion to repair the damage to industrial facilities, which shows the cost of the war for the Iranian people just to get a nuclear weapon is prohibitive, considering that the Iranian economy was already in trouble before the war. Inflation and the overall economy will be in difficult shape for many years. Public sentiment in Iran may change the future course of Iran away from the course currently pursued. The entire Middle East  region has not benefitted from its dependence on oil. For the rest of the world finding alternative sources of supply is the best way and EU, China, India should accelerate renewable technologies and goals for energy independence shortening the transition from fossil fuels. ...

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Simon Nixon says the main problem with the E.U. bank stress tests of 2011 is that it did not test for sovereign defaults. For example Greek debt that is trading at 50 cents on the euro, was marked down 15%. And the lack of urgency to raise fresh capital is another problem. He says the real value of the tests comes from the asset disclosures that accompanied the tests.

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The Sheshinski committee recommends increasing the government's share of revenue from oil and gas finds in Israel to between 52% and 62% from 30% now. The committee also said any field starting production by 2014 would be partially exempt from the increase, which would be imposed only after the produers had recovered 200% of their initial investment. This applies to Noble and its discovery in the Tamar field.

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Bank of Scotland stands to lose close to 90% of the value for a 1500 acre luxury golf-course property and homes it financed in Hawaii called Hokuli'a. From its peak price of $600-800 million it is now going for $50-100 million after the developer based in Phoenix defaulted on the $1 billion loan from Bank of Scotland, which is now part of Lloyd's Banking Group.

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Ireland's unemployment has increased in the years since the 2009 financial crisis. Unemployment in 2011 was 14.6% according to the Central Statistics Office. 76,400 people left the country in the year ended April 2011, up 17% from the prior year. About 60% of the unemployed were long term unemployed at the end of 2011, compared to 50% in 2010. This is the highest in the OECD, after Slovakia.

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The Markit surveys for manufacturing orders measures manufacturers response to whether business is getting better or worse in eight countries, the U.S., China, Japan, Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The figure 50 means that the same number of companies are saying orders are improving as ones that are saying it is not improving. For May 2012, the number is 50.5 for the U.S., 43.0 in Germany, and Italy 47.4.

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After declining sales in 2013, India's auto industry recovers in 2014 with 13% more car sales in June 2014 than the prior year month. SUV sales were up 17% in June 2014 over the prior month. Mahindra and Mahindra has 51% of the market share for SUV's from Jan to June 2014, according to LMC. Ford Motor has increased SUV sales in China and is pursuing the same strategy in India.

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Coorruption allegations for oil contracts in Algeria and other problems with prosecutors in Italy, are affecting the results of Saipem, an oil services provider in which Eni has 43% stake but lacks operational control. Saipem shares have fallen 50%, with second quarter net loss of $910 million, and expected net loss of $390 million for 2013. Eni shares are down 10%, with the Italy FTSE Mib Index showing no change.

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S&P downgrades France's credit rating from AA+ to AA. Government spending at 56% of GDP remains at the second highest level in the EU, second to Denmark. President Hollande has reduced the deficit mainly by raising taxes which is seen as having reached its limit. The French economic growth was at 0.5% for the second quarter of 2013 compared to the first quarter, unemployment is high at 11.1%.

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The step that Osborne took to lay out Britain's Conservative party's plan to tackle Britain's awful deficit of $280 billion, and making this journey through the bleak landscape ahead is forbidding but enormously useful, says the Economist. Everyone shares the burden equally and the Conservatives will keep the 50% tax on higher incomes, raise the age for pensions, freeze public sector pay in 2011, take away middle class tax breaks.

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The German government has arranged 50 billion euros of mostly state backed loans for Hypo and guaranteed another 42 billion euros of Hypos debts. But continuing losses mean more government capital may be needed. The government is considering nationalization of Hypo Real Estate Holding, a Munich based bank, and even confiscation of shareholder's stakes in the bank, as permitted under German law if it upholds the public interest.

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China's trade surplus rose to $457 billion at an annual rate in the 4th quarter, 50% bigger than in the same period for 2007. Exports dropped by 13% in the 4th quarter but imports dropped faster by 21%, which explains the growing trade surplus. With the stimulus spending kicking in in 2010 imports should pick up just as exports decelerate fast, reversing the direction of the trade surplus.

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The culture of risk at Societe Generale. Is this typical of this period the glorification of the quants and the general aspiration to attain the status reserved for them. Did this lead to a lax supervision that led to the huge losses of a single youthful trader. How was it possible to allow a single trader to take positions amounting to $50 billion? See the link to the WSJ article.

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Even Schlu,berger is suffering from the oil price decline. It had the slogan "stronger for longer". Its shares have dropped from their high July 1, 2008, by 52% this far. Halliburton, Baker Hughes, And Weatherford International have fared worse, As falling oil prices slows down the pace of drilling. Natural producers have been cutting drilling budgets. Depending on how far oil prices decline offshore drilling budget could also be affected.