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This Spiegel report looks at how far Germany has come in tackling the refugee crisis one year later in September 2016. It looks at the progress in several areas- housing, integration through language training, jobs and the labor market, school age children, crime, deportation, political scene and elections. Maintaining public support in the face of incidents such as the ones in Cologne and some terrorist incidents, the protests in cities such as Dresden, was tackled by negotiating a treaty with Turkey to turn back new refugees, and by letting countries in southeastern Europe such as Hungary to close routes used previously. Internal agreement with the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the CDU, led to a reduction in refugees granted asylum for each month in 2016. About 220,000 migrants were newly registered in the first half of 2016. Germany's EASY registration system shows 92,000 migrants registered in January and the number dropping to 16,000 in July.  Here are some of the figures on progress as cited by Spiegel. On BAMF, the Federal Office of Migration and Refugees- It has increased staff from 2300 employees in early 2015 to 8000, with many new offices opened, significantly more efficient than before. Housing- about a million refugees have found housing. Thousands of empty beds in emergency shelters and 1000 repurposed gyms are no longer needed. Smaller cities and towns have done better than large cities like Berlin, with hangars at Tempelhof Airport still housing refugees. Barbara Hendricks, Federal Environment and Building Minister of SPD party, has tripled funding for subsidized housing to 1.5 billion euros for 2018. Hendricks wants to repeal a constitutional amendment that shifts housing responsibility to states, so that the federal government is actively involved. Integration- BAMF head Weise estimates a shortage of 200,000 slots in language and integration courses. About 80,000 Afghans are not eligible for the programs. So far estimates by KMK representing education ministers of the 16 federal states, shows 325,000 children and young people integrated into school system in 2014 and 2015. Spiegel estimates 12,000 teachers were hired for this, and an additional 20,000 are needed says GEW. 58,000 daycare spots are needed for children arrived in 2015, and 9400 additional daycare personnel are needed. Wages have been raised. Jobs- The Federal Employment Office says 322,000 refugees were registered and seeking jobs in July 2016. Crime- Police crime statistics show 4% increase but when the asylum and visa related offenses are taken out the crime has not increased as it has appeared in the media. The events in Cologne had started a debate on this issue after teenagers harassed women near the Cathedral square. BKA Federal Criminal Polic Office says 1031 assaults on refugee accomodations happened in 2015, 665 in 2016. Incidents of Islamic terrorists happened in Wurzburg and Ansbach, and authorites have become more vigilant.  Deportation- the central register of foreign nationals has about 220,000 people who have to leave Germany. Because of wars in home countries 172,000 are still in Germany. Political scene- CDU and CSU sister parties have disagreements on immigration policy. There is fear about the country changing. Yet the new children in schools are only about 2% of the school children in Germany. As immigrants are mostly young people who will be required to take language training and integrate in schools and workplaces, the situation is different from the first wave of workers coming in from Turkey in early postwar period. Also lessons have been learned and integration is being required.   So has the most difficult period in this immigration crisis been put behind for Germany? It appears that this is the situation. Germany's economy was strong during the "wilkommen refugees" and it has helped the country deal with it better. The volunteer support certainly helped. State, city, and business leaders responded. What about the claims of Islamization. Because so many of the refugees are from a relatively progressive country such as Syria, and many from urban literate areas, combined with a policy of integration, this could prove to be a different experience for Germany. Because many left because of religious sectarianism or corrupt governments the immigrant mentality as a whole barring some exceptions, is likely different, seeking integration in a different modern culture that prizes the individual and respects his development. Over time and sooner than many realize, Merkel may be proved right when she says- "Germany will be Germany, with everything that is near and dear to us." When it comes to politics the CDU and CSU are taking the "homeland" theme as their own. Across the Atlantic Germany's example is being followed- as the number just a trickle about 4000 refugees admitted in 2014, has been increased to 110,000 for 2017 by president Obama, showing the power of the example in the face of adversity and skepticism. German culture and society tended to be insular and the experience of this type, difficult as it has been, and not something that was actively sought out, may have a positive effect. Particularly with the scarred immigrants who may want to embrace the new culture and not look back at what they left behind.   ...

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Mortgages Ltd a company in Arizona which makes loans to commercial developers at rates of 12% with other fees that bring it up to 19% with no red tape, higher rates which serve about 5% of that market, went bankrupt with only 27 of 71 commercial borrowers making their loan payments. It used doctors and dentists money to loan out usually for smaller projects of $20 million under the CEO Coles' father who founded the firm, but in the last few years of the booming real estate market the younger Coles who was running the company overreached and went into larger projects in Tempe, Arizona and other places which ran into more than $100 million. These docotrs and dentists would get 9% to 18% returns on their money but as the company overextended and loaned out $928 million ten times what it had previously lent out it ran into trouble and as real estate went sour it has failed to make the interest payments to these doctors dentists and others. Mr. Coles then commited suicide recently. It gives some insight into the nature of events in the commercial real estate markets of places like Arizona....

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Harris tells a rally in Atlanta that abortion bans pay no attention to maternal health. "One in three women in America lives in a state with a Trump abortion ban. This includes Georgia and every state in the south except Virginia. Think about that, when you also combine that with what we know has been longstanding neglect around an issue like maternal mortality. Think about that, when you compound that with what has been longstanding neglect of women in communities with a lack of the adequate resources they need for healthcare, prenatal, during their pregnancy, postpartum. Think about that, and these hypocrites want to start talking about this is in the best interest of women and children?" Harris points out that some states have prison for life or ten year sentences for doctors and nurses, under their abortion bans. “We all know how we got here. When Donald Trump was president, he hand-selected three members of the United States supreme court, the court of Thurgood and RBG, with the intention that they would overturn the protections of Roe v Wade."                   ...

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A centrist 73 years, and mentor of Macron, the head of the Movement Democrate allied to Macron's Renaissance party is appointed to succceed Banrnier as PM of France. Macron hit a new low of public approval rating of 23% by Ipsos. Scholz of Germany is at 18% following reaching 65% in Jan 2022. Bayrou says-“I am fully aware of the Himalaya of difficulties that lie before us,” Bayrou says he would strive for a “necessary reconciliation” with Melenchon of France Unbowed party and Marie Le Pen of National Rally on the left and right of the centrist Macron. These are mere labels- both Melenchon and Marie Le Pen want to see higher public spending and no cuts in the Budget for 2025, Macron is not eager for cuts, Barnier wanted to cut the budget to cut the growing deficit but this is not a time to cut spending as investment is needed to grow the economy and meet needs for public services and cost of living assistance. Macron was taken by surprise by Barnier's approach leading to a no confidence vote and Barnier resigning.  ...

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Nokia's new hardware design strategy capitalizes on Nokia's strengths in design and manufacturing. Marko Ahtisarri, Nokia's head designer sees opportunity in coming up with phones that have more natural forms, and move away from the black, grey metallic rounded-corner rectangles. He wants to design a phone that would let users keep their heads up, so they can have contact with their environment even as they use their phones.

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Gazprom's shares have ratings even lower than BP's. They are trading at 3.6 times 2010 earnings. 40% of Gazprom's gas is sent to Europe. Gas use in Europe is falling. It fell 6% in 2009. LNG use is expanding in Europe as Europe diversifies its energy access- LNG constituted 8% in 2004 and went up to 14% in 2009- with Russian market share dropping from 28% to under 25%.

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The mood in West Bengal state and the conflict between a communist state government which wants to push for industrialization similar to what they see in China, against more doctrinaire communists in the party who operate at the federal level -who opposed the India-USA nuclear cooperation treaty- and a party led by an activist Mamta Banerjee, who opposes the acquisition of land for industrial development and factories.

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Feniosky Pena-Mora originally of the Dominican Republic, came to the USA in the 1980's with a degree in engineering at the age of 21. He now becomes dean of the Colombia University Fu Foundation School of Engineering. He wants to integrate the "biological, physical and digital worlds of engineering." He also wnats to set up faculty led trips and internships abroad in order to give students more international exposure.

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Experts in both the USA and China say that the trade deficit will remain a problem in US-China relations, as China now wants to see not an appreciation of its currency but some devaluation of its currency to promote its exports. Additionally both Congress and Mr. Obama are looking at trade relations carefully. Obama has been critical of how unfettered free trade has not been beneficial to both countries.

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WSJ opinion pages on the day after the Obama victory speech. Sorensian overkill says Henninger, if Ted Sorensen did some of the writing or the young speechwriter went into overwriting. Asks Henninger "remaking this nation. Calloused hand by calloused hand?" Or "our union can be perfected" or talk of "the despair of the dust bowl and depression across the land." Or says Henninger is Obama given to grandiosity?

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Land prices went up by 500% during the last decade and developers went on a building spree in Spain. 800,000 units were built in 2007 alone. Many of these developed areas are now ghost towns. Coastal villages were turned into residential areas for vacationing Spaniards and for retired people from other parts of Europe. At the peak of the boom in real estate the construction sector accounted for 12% of GDP, double the level in Britain and France. Spain's deputy finance minister, Jose Campa,says that the adjustment in housing prices has already taken place. Yet housing prices are down a modest 12.8% from the peak according to the Bank of Spain. And that leaves plenty of skeptics. The estimates of the central bank, the Bank of Spain, are that banks in Spain have $280 billion in "problematic exposure," on their books, out of $580 billion invested in real estate and construction. With the lack of adequate disclosure it is hard to estimate the real exposure of Spanish banks. To improve investor confidence, the Bank of Spain is forcing banks to make more disclosures and to acknowledge bad assets faster....

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The Republican party (GOP) chances with Trump as the candidate in 2024 are seen with much skepticism by Karl Rove in the WSJ. Republicans need to keep the presidential field of candidates not too crowded for too long, as pluralities in primaries led to Trump winning a large share of delegates even with about one third of the vote in the early primaries for the 2020 election. Another challenge is the work of Trump supporting leaders in states such as Michigan who want to select delegates by convention and not through primaries. Ron de Santis, Governor of Florida, is seeking the Republican nomination, and faces a strong challenge from the former president. De Santis, 44 years, is from Dunedin, Florida, His mother was a nurse and his father installed Nielsen TV rating boxes, with great-great grandparents immigrating from Italy Benevento, Avellino) in 1904. He studied history at Yale and went to Harvard Law School, Navy Justice School after joining the Navy. De Santis was elected to the US Congress in 2014 and 2016 where he served as the chariman of the sub committee on National Security. He founded the Freedom Caucus in these years. In 2018 he ran for Governor of Florida winning by 0.4%, running again in 2022 he won by about 20 percentage points. ...

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Chinese government and China's Securities Regulatory Commission issues a scathing criticism of pwc accounting firm's audits of Evergrande real estate company. Evergrande went into bankruptcy on a huge scale and pwc's audits failed to disclose what was happening at the company when apartments that were not built or not completed were considered as revenue. This disguised the problems at the company  leading to huge losses and affecting the entire Chinese economy that depended too much on construction for GDP growth.

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Even though 61% of Germans in a recent poll want migrants with an open asylum application  in another EU state to be turned back, about two thirds of people in the Forsa poll of June 15, say they want this to be done with a European resolution not a unilateral approach. This favors Chancellor Merkel in her dispute with coalition partner CSU leader Seehofer who seeks a tougher approach to immigration. Seehofer's attempt as Interior Minister to set a new order at German borders without the agreement of the Chancellor would be a challenge to Merkel's authority. The dispute was postponed for 2 weeks till consultation with European partners. Merkel says this would be a challenge to the authority of the Chancellor. 

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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says this is not chaos in tariff policy because you don't change 70 years of policy overnight. He says China's is highest because it has the highest trade deficit, then EU, Japan, South Korea at 15% because of the smaller deficits with these nations, Vietnam because it is used  by China to send products to the US, India because of geopolitical reasons buying Russian oil. See Dasha Burns, Politico White House Bureau Chief's  interview with USTR Jamieson Greer.  He says about India- Jamieson USTR calls India "an outlier" and says "I'm confident we will get a deal with India in the near future." India he says has largely corrected its imports of Russian oil and negotiations are underway for a deal.  ON USMCA Greer says of the $31 trillion in trade with Canada and Mexico $29 trillion is us right. trade between Canda and Mexico is small. So he says it makes sense to negotiate separately with Canada and separately with Mexico. This suggests that there doesnt need to be a USMCA- separate deals are just fine says Greer. Mexico has gained much in automobiles under USMCA- US wants to make more in the US including auto parts which it can do by negotiating this with Mexico. It does not make a ton of economic sense to marry the three economies together, says Greer, as the import export profiles, lab,or situations are all different. Are Tariffs good for the economy and do they lead to higher prices? Greer says inflation was down in the first DJT term in trade with China and tariffs. Greer says there is never a 1 to 1 with tariffs. It tariffs become a kind of leveage in getting agreements. That is the style of these tariffs. You tell Ecuador or Brazil we don't make these here so there will be no tariffs on bananas and on coffee. Says Greer- we have seen inflation in check, imported goods relatively low priced. We have seen that we can have growth and higher wages with tariffs at the same time. The growth in 2025 third quarter at 3.8% annual growth, and Atlanta Fed predicting 4.2% growth in 2026. And tariff money can be used for paying down the debt and financing America's reindustrialization, Greer says members of Congress are asking about this.When a new administration comes tariffs will still be part of the playbook. ...

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The iphone 16e 2025 for $599 more battery, more camera and larger screen offers more features at the lower end of the price range. One can see this as a phone that helps tackle the cost of living crisis that could hurt Apple sales from buyers with moderate incomes who are cutting back. It could also target a growing middle class buyer segment in India. The e in 16e could stand for economy buyers who want basics in the Apple and could attract upper income buyers of Xiaomi , Huawei and Samsung. Apple iphones have strengths in: seamless ecosytem navigation interface reliable and secure ios software higher resale value Apple discontinues support for older iphones after about 7 years. iPhone 13's can still be used in 2025 4 years old, a good time to change would be by 2026. iPhone 15 was introduced in 2023 which means a good time for changing it is 2028 using a 5 year change which balances the need to update and  update to have access to newer iphones. ...

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Biden is a US president in a hurry, says this analysis in The Times. And it says this is for a good reason. Biden as vice president in the Obama administration has watched as time slipped by and much of the hopes remained unfulfilled for infrastructure and other plans including climate change. Biden also has long experience in Congress and long experience working with Congressional rules. He also understands that the Democratic majority may not last beyond 2 years, better to go all out now and lose no time. This is the thinking behind his plan for $2 trillion in infrastructure spending in the first 100 days of his administration, and the idea that he does not need to win Republican support by watering down his plan.

The American people now support this kind of bold vision and bold plan after the pandemic showed the weak nature of presidential plans and aspirations till now for three decades.

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Alitalia may be sold to private companies, to Air France, KLM or to Italian banking companies. Italy's government wants to sell half of its 49.9% stake . Alitalia has a market value of 1.33 billion euros. Any buyer will have to keep its Italian identity, job guarantees, and keep national routes. Any buyer buying a 30.1% stake has to make a mandatory bid for the rest of the shares according to Italian rules.

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Slowing car sales are expected for Detroit auto manufacturers as Japanese sales recover after the tsunami and earthquake. A major reason for higher sales was pentup demand. Sales reached an annualized 14 million level for 2012. Research firm Polk says the average time a new car was owned went up to 71.4 months, and used cars 49.9 months, in Feb 2012. This is 23% above the level of the third quarter of 2008.

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World Bank President Zoellick's view on 2010 for the global economy. As the IMF forecasts tend to be more of an extension of wht one sees today and less anticipatory of rapidly changing environments and dangers, the World Bank's Zoellick's personal assesssment carries weight. HE sees no longer a collapsing economy but complacency. He sees amultipolar economy and wants to see developing countries with 50% of the voting rights at the World Bank.

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See the link about an aging USA airline fleet and fewer orders to Boeing and Airbus from US airlines. Well here are some of the remarks and comments from employees who interact with customers every day and know their unhappiness and their trouble on planes in direct telling it like it is manner. At US Airways Doug Parker the CEO wants to hear what employees have to say and here is some of it.

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The Rockefeller family wants to see Exxon with an independent chairman who would focus more on renewable energy and global warming and give Exxon a new direction as they see Exxon's current management as not in step with current thinking on energy and the direction the US should take in managing how it should approach the whole issue of energy, its use, and sourcing it in a global society that includes Africa and Asia.

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German chancellor Merkel says leaders today are stuck in their own digital echo chambers and not doing the diplomacy and bilateral communication needed. Lack of diplomacy is worse than during the Cold War, says Merkel. "We live in a world where lack of speech is more pronounced than during the Cold War." She was gravely concerned by the number of conversations she had with world leaders who rarely speak to each other, and who become inward looking even as the global economic links bring countries and regions closer. This is happening with the situation in Libya and Germany has convened a conference of world leaders including France, Russia and Turkey, and both sides in the war in Libya to talk about the essential steps for peaceful resolution. Germany wants to prevent any recurrence of the situation that resulted in refugees fleeing North Africa in 2015. What were the mistakes made during that crisis? Merkel says "The mistake was not to have paid attention to create an environment where people can stay in their own country."  Germany has no intention to let that mistake be repeated in Libya. The Berlin conference of world leaders shows Germany is serious, and is getting world leaders Putin of Russia, Macron of France, Erdogan of Turkey, together with Mr. Trump's representative Pompeo of the U.S. to prevent any recurrence. ...

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German chancellor Merkel imposes a partial lockdown in Germany starting November 2. This is followed by an announcement of a lockdown across France by president Macron. On October 28 German daily cases went above 14,000. Only 25% of intensive care beds are now available, creating a very serious situation. Meetings in public will be restricted to just two households of up to 10 people total. No crowds at sports events. Restaurants and bars will close except for take away. Schools and kindergartens will remain open. Church services and protests will be allowed to continue. Shops will remain open with one customer for every 10 square meters or 108 square feet. Merkel called it a "very serious situation," and said "we must act now to avoid an acute national health emergency." She told Germans the number of people in intensive care units has doubled in last 10 days, and in many areas it was no longer possible to track and trace infection chains. In 75% of the cases the source of infection is unknown. People are encouraged to work from home and companies encouraged to make this happen. Companies with less than 50 employees and self-employed will get support from the government with  about 75%% of the income. Companies, institutions and clubs will also get federal aid. About $10 billion euros are set aside for this aid. ...

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PM Modi makes changes in his cabinet of ministers with new ministers brought in and some ministers in the current cabinet asked to leave. Javadekar  in Information and Broadcasting ministry, Harsh Vardhan at the Health Ministry, and Ravi Shankar Prasad at IT and Law ministry, Ramesh Pokhriyal at HRD were replaced. Seven cabinet ministers were replaced including social justice and empowerment, and chemicals and fertilizers. Jaishankar at Ministry of External Affairs, Rajnath Singh at Defense, and Sitharaman at Finance, Amit Shah at Home are in the core of ministers who will continue in their roles. Dharmendra Pradhan is new Education minister, Mansukh Mandavia in charge of Health and chemicals and fertilizers, Kiran Rijjuju is Law minister, Giriraj Singh new Rural Development minister. Ashwini Vaishnaw from the IAS is the new Minister of Railways. The main idea of these changes is to bring in younger ministers and give them 3 years of experience before the next parliamentary elections, and to replace ministers who have not accomplished much. Some appointments such as the civil aviation ministry went to persons who supported the state government in Madhya Pradesh, and similar appointments for Bihar. A Dalit leader Virender Kumar is the new Social Justice and Empowerment minister, and this is a way to increase the support in the OBC or backward caste communities which get greater participation.     ...