LyrArc Article Gist
The new faces in the Biden administration on economic policy are Janet Yellen, as head of the central bank, the Federal Reserve, and Cecilia Rouse, a Princeton labor economist, as head of the Council of Economic Advisors. In this report WSJ looks at the economic policies of the new administration after Mr. Trump rejected globalization and international trade agreements that were not in America's interest or that hurt American workers.  Informal conversations with experts suggest WSJ says, that globalization is now suspect as a way that benefitted China and other countries including Germany, and hurt the U.S. France, Britain and other countries in Europe that were not strong exporters. This hurt their industries which were eroded by imports resulting in the three decades long destruction of communities across these countries that depended on manufacturing. It has also hurt countries like India that let their markets be dominated by Chinese imports, with a reversal of policy in 2020 with self reliant economy under "Atman Nirbhar" policy as the new goal. Mr. Trump's tactic in this trade war was to fight back to regain America's position in manufacturing with tariffs on imports. The trade deficit had to come down with China just as it had done with Japan decades earlier. This was starting to happen. One problem in bringing down the imports was the increase in the value of the dollar, as Janet Yellen has noted. The new policies will look at what the effective policy will be while keeping this goal in mind.  Both Yellen and Ms. Rouse have spent years studying labor markets and Ms. Rouse is quoted here as saying: " With open trade there are winners and losers. The losers are really losing, and we need to take care of them and take on more nuanced models of international trade as a result." Other experts from the earlier Democratic administrations such as Prof. Frankel at Harvard say that there needs to be increased focus on American workers left behind by trade, technology and unequal education, with more spending on preschool, infrastructure and health. All this suggests that there will be a continuation of U.S. policy in challenging Chinese use of globalization to advance its interests, chastening Americans on the use of the very word globalization which can mean different things to different people based on how they can gain advantage. The word may even be entirely dropped in favor of what the policies are and what they do for the American worker, American communities including small towns, and the American people, spelling each of these out every time supply chains and the global economy is mentioned. The new administration will get an opportunity to show that it too can come up with new ideas and action plan to strengthen American manufacturing and jobs. It will also have to show substantial results as people have lost patience with Democrats and Republicans on the lack of progress in rebuilding America's leadership role in the world economy, and in defending American workers and factories. Clinton, Obama and Bush all offered false promises on trade with China ignoring the damage this had done to American leadership in the world economy. Clinton with support for China's entry into the World Trade Organization, Bush with foreign wars and costly diversions and regulatory failures with banks that led to the 2009 deep recession hurting Americans, and Obama with the lack of will and interest in America's leadership role in the world as the dominant nation in manufacturing,   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The shares of Belgium's Dexia bank dropped 22% on October 4, 2011, to 1.01 euros. Dexia has large holdings of sovereign debt- 21 billion euros of debt from troubled eurozone countries. Of this 3.8 billion euros is in Greek bonds, 13.4 billion euros in Italian bonds. The total Dexia holdings of Greek, Portuguese, Italian, Spanish, and Irish debt is about 3 times the book value of its equity. After the 2008 crisis Dexia attempted to change to a retail bank based in Belgium and Turkey. But customer deposits are only 25% of its liabilities, making Dexia heavily dependent on issuing covered bonds which are difficult to issue because of the large debt from troubled countries. The response of the Belgian and French governments on October 4-5 is to breakup Dexia. The breakup plan includes selling off the asset management business and DenizBank, its retail bank in Turkey. Other actions include selling Paris based public finance Dexia Municipal Agency to French savings banks Caisse des Depots & Consignations, and La Banque Postale. The 21 billion euros of bonds from troubled eurozone countries will be placed in a "bad bank" with guarantees from Belgian and French governments. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, will have his first Q&A and press conference on April 27, 2011. This is an effort to reach a broader audience with the Fed's view of the economy, his defense of the $600 billion quantitative easing decision, and views on inflation and the U.S. dollar.

LyrArc Article Gist
Goldfarb says everyone is focussed on the "fiscal cliff," yet there are other issues which when put together could lead to a drop of 1 percentage point in growth and add a million people to the jobless. The temporary payroll tax cut for 160 million workers was setup in Dec. 2010. The payroll tax which funds Social Security is 4.2% since then, down from 6.2%, adding about $1000 for the average family to spend. The unemployment insurance benefits which expire for millions of people will also have an impact. As will the $60 billion in spending cuts on domestic and defense spending under an agreement made in the summer of 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
After the jump in unemployment in the the first year of the pandemic came the reversal as people retired or left some sectors of the economy leading to worker shortages. This is now reverting to something more normal as the US central bank the Fed acts to fight inflation, with both unemployment and inflation beginning to return to normal levels, says the WSJ.

LyrArc Article Gist
Working part-time during retirement years is important for health- staying active, using ones mind and brain, social engagement, and getting satisfaction in the workplace. A Study in 2017 by the Rand Corporation finds about 40% of workers over 65 who had previously retired back to the workplace. People are lengthening careers, and returning to work not just for financial reasons. Many of these people are looking for ways to remain active after realizing that staying active was important and if this could be combined with having extra time off in part time jobs for other hobbies and interests- this would better fit today's lifestyle and choices with people living longer and having more productive lives than ever before. A recent Pew Research analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the proportion of people over age 65 who are employed part time or full time has gone up in 2016 from about 13% to 19% with about half these people working full time. This trend to work following retirement has a word for it- people call it "unretirement." Where work is less taxing as for graduates and people with higher education this is happening more.  From a health perspective this can be important, as people can become more reclusive and more internal looking, less socially engaged as they retire without even realizing it. Some level of social engagement is planned by people retiring, and many retirees do volunteer work, yet this may not be enough. For those people who retired early because of burnout in the workplace, strains with other workers, poor culture in the workplace, the retirement for a few years after 60 can serve as a way to replenish one's resources, recover and resume working again in a place that is better suited for them. The restorative break can then serve as a way to get back to the workplace in a positive way. Work that is meaningful, offering opportunities for contributing one's skills, adds a new dimension to people's lives, and is also a contributor to living healthy lives, at a time when people live longer. Retirement at 65 may not make sense in this new environment, opportunities for part-time work bring the knowledge and skills of experienced people to the workplace and offer a win-win solution for both. More needs to be done to create these opportunities in a planned and organized way in business and government, in all workplaces. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT plans for 25% tariff on all imported cars goes into effect April 2, 2025. It is intended to promote additional investment in the US auto industry, boosting jobs and wages in the US. These countries have now wrapped their behavior around national sentiment even though they very well know how the US has looked out for Europe, and especially China throughout cataclysmic events in the 20th century and the 21st century such as foreign occupation and failures in modernization. By 2015 the US which had given Europe the Marshall Plan and helped Japan rebuild from the ashes of World War II, South Korea rebuild from the devastation of the Korean war, and China rebuild after the failed industrialization experiments of the 1960's and 1970's, was now facing nations that only saw this as a One Way Street, making the US look stupid and showing a degree of irresponsible behaviour on fentanyl, drug and migrant trafficking  by Canada Mexico and China that has few parallels in history. The narrative from the US is that the US allowed Europe, Japan and South Korea, and Mexico as a manufacturing base for these countries 25 years since the 1970's when Japanese Toyota vehicles made inroads into the US market to help these countries recover, a post Marshall Plan benefit given to Europe and Asia. During 1995-2015 a series of weak administrations Clinton-Bush-Obama allowed the US manufacturing base to decline under a falsely premised globalization that served US financial interests but hurt US manufacturing towns and communities across the country.  This means BMW, VW cars imported from Germany, Subaru, Toyota, Nissan, Honda cars from Japan, Hyundai and Kia cars from South Korea, Chinese EV vehicles, and cars made in Mexico for Asian and European makers, all will face this tariff. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Bond investors are looking to Japan for clues after the U.S. credit downgrade and two years of zero interest rates. William O'Donnell, chief Treasurys strategist at RBS Securities sees similiarities with what happened in Japan- short term rates near zero and long term rates headed down. strategists see the U.S. 10 year Treasury note dropping to less than 2%, from 2.23% today. Japan's 10 year Treasury note yields 1.05%. O'Donnell's forecast is for 10 year rates to be at 1.70% by mid-2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ's Peter Nicholas, Carol Lee and John McKinnon describe the events leading to the election of Obama to a second term as U.S. president. A significant move by the Obama campaign was to spend heavily in the early part of the campaign to show Romney as a predatory capitalist by focussing on his record a a private equity business executive who focussed on profits. More voters perceived Obama as caring about people like themselves. The voter turnout was also carefully executed especially for minority voters. For the first time since Mondale's loss to Reagan fewer white voters supported a presidential candidate- only 38% of the white vote went for president Obama compared to 60% for Romney. Obama's campaign focussed on protecting the middle class and working class from sharp spending cuts. Voters major issue was the economy, with unemployment at 7.9%. Yet voters largely did not hold Obama responsible for the economy and considered Wall Street and the previous George W. Bush administration responsible for the events leading to the 2008 financial crisis....

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the WSJ after Jeb Bush's opening campaign rally, says his candidacy livens up the field because he could act as someone who brings the country together compared to other candidates who would act as polarizing figures- Hillary Clinton, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and others. It gives high marks to Jeb Bush for his two terms as governor of Florida, and says the only governor coming close for the last 20 years is Mitch Daniels of Indiana. And it says the Republican party needs someone who can attract non-Republican voters if it is to win in 2016, which means taking states like Florida and swing states Colorado and Virginia. It cites as a plus Jeb Bush having a nearly 60% approval rating in Florida when he left office. On immigration and other issues affecting the middle class Jeb Bush has the potential to act as a unifying force in the country. His goal to achieve 4% growth, after the 2% growth in the Obama years, will be needed to improve the prospects for the middle class and working class people in the U.S., after the damaging effects of the 2008 financial crisis....

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out that the high growth during Jeb Bush's period as governor of Florida was a result of the housing boom years. When that boom collapsed by 2008 the economy slumped badly. Taken as an average for the boom and slump years Florida's growth rate is slightly below the national average, says Krugman. Economists and other experts say productivity is a key factor for increasing wages and growth, which is a result of factors depending on the use of technology, business investment in productivity, human capital. It is stuck at a low level of 0.4% since 2010, according to economists, and not a factor that is dependent on who is president. During the two terms of president Obama growth was 2.1%, George H.W. Bush 2.0%, George W. Bush 1.6%- making the Bush and Obama years in office similiar in terms of growth. Before 2000 we see higher growth rates under a Republican president Reagan 3.4% and a Democratic president Clinton 3.7%. A significant factor since 2008 is the financial crisis and housing bubble which has in many countries such as Japan and Mexico, and to a lesser extent in the U.S., led to a lost decade....

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. president Obama invited NYT's columnist Thomas Friedman to the White House for an interview on Saturday afternoon April 4, 2015. Here Friedman gives president Obama's response to his questions, and Obama's concerns about the heated rhetoric in the U.S. and Israel on the negotiations with Iran detracting and distracting from his key goals of protecting U.S. interests and Israel. On the Sunni states, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Obama points out that there are some tough conversations needed about changes inside their societies which pose a greater threat to the governments than Iran. Obama says he understands perfectly that Israel and the Jewish people after their experience of the last hundred years are determined to not let Iran develop a nuclear weapon, and their right to be concerned that the agreement could let Iran clandestinely develop one. Obama says the verification is extensive and covers any facility in Iran, any suspicion about secret facilities, yet it leaves the subsequent decisions if Iran created difficulties, to a international body over which the U.S., UK, France, have no control. This is a principal issue for critics of the negotiated agreement. No mention is made of why Iran simply discarded the option of sending the atomic material to Russia to be processed into nuclear rods for the Bushehr nuclear plant built by Russia only a few days before the final outline was developed. And why the U.S., with allies Germany, France, UK and Japan, did not offer the Iranians an economic aid package if needed in return for the billions Iranians invested for that atomic material, to ensure that the atomic materials are shipped out of the country- to create a nuclear agreement that would be credible to all parties. The economic aid would benefit Iran modernize its oil industry, including refining operations, meet basic import needs, and provide tangible proof to the Iranian people of our best intentions for the future, that president Obama strongly espouses in the interview. The interview does show the quandary president Obama faces in Iran for strong action, that is a result of failed policies with Iran since the Eisenhower administration's intervention 1953 during the Cold War that displaced the elected government of Mosaddegh in Iran and setup the Shah's regime in 1956, the support of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in the war against Iran, which Obama mentions in this intervew. In the light of the repeated failures of the U.S. policies a Democratic party leader faces increasing reservations for taking strong action against Iran's development of nuclear weapons capabilities, preferring to exhaust every diplomatic channel, and take risks in the hope that time will give the Iranian people an opportunity to to reintegrate in the global community and pursue the peaceful development of nuclear energy. This strain in president Obama's thinking is evident throughout the interview with Friedman. Other aspects of president Obama's policy in the Middle East shared in the interview are about supporting the Sunni states in some areas, and Iran in some areas, at the same time as the nuclear issue is "put in a box" and separated from the regional conflicts. Friedman presents this as the Obama doctrine, yet it appears to be coming after a series of improvisations in foreign policy following a failure to act in 2011-2013, when the "once in a lifetime" opportunities presented by the Arab Spring were not taken up by the Obama administration, leading to the region's current disintegration....

LyrArc Article Gist
The issues related to India's borders all hinge on Tibet says the Council on Foreign Relations. Sardar Patel and Nehru had differences of their own on whether the McMahon Line set by the British in a treaty with Tibet as an independent country was the border with Tibet or the border with China.  Between 1913 and 1950 Tibet was an independent country, with an Indian High commissioner in Lhasa between 1947 and 1950. After the Cold War set in and China and the Soviet Union fought to defend the rights of colonial peoples the U.S. and Britain did not recognize Tibet as a part of China. Nehru simply remained with the British status quo of the McMahon line as the Indian border with Tibet, without any clear acceptance  of the invasion of Tibet in 1950 by China, yet accepting the new status quo after the invasion, differing from Sardar Patel on the issue. This is why no clear picture emerges from looking at the official positions of the two countries, and a better understanding can be gained by looking at the border issue from the Council of Foreign Relations in the U.S.   Essentially the border issue is not beneficial for what it gives back to each of the two countries. China sees itself rejecting the period of its weakness during the Japanese invasion so that it reasserts its position to borders that stretch outside where Chinese people live. India sees itself rejecting the weakness during the British period and the early post British period during which India was occupied with the issues relating to partition of British India and the partition of Kashmir. This is why the Council on Foreign Relations can provide a better understanding from and independent perspective.  Both sides have little to gain. China by being at the Tibetan border puts itself in a position where it has little to gain being on the border with a large rapidly industrializing country with a population of over 1 billion.  At over 4000 metres or 20,000 feet the territory and landscape is not one that humans can adapt too in any way, except for a few military personnel doing their term of duty of 6-12 months from India or China. China is even further away from the border as it is a remote border from Beijing, Shanghai, Canton or Chengdu, thousands of kilometres when it is just 8 hours from Srinagar by highway to Leh, Ladakh, and the Nepalese border very close to the Bihar state in India. The very distance suggests remoteness, with customs traditions in the region very different from that in China, suggesting very little connection between Beijing near Mongolia and Tibet or Ladakh very close to India by road or rail. To get some idea how close the Tibet border is to India consider that Rasuwagadhi Fort border point between Nepal and Tibet is only 127 miles by road from Kathmandu. The distance by rail from the Indian border in Bihar to the Nepalese border is only 34 kilometres with a new upgraded rail connection. Being this close India is likely to upgrade infrastructure throughout the northeast region as it upgrades infrastructure, roads and bridges and rail throughout India at an accelerated pace for economic development.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The firing of John Bolton as National Security Adviser opens up the possibility of a meeting of Trump with President Rouhani of Iran. There is a need for both sides to begin talks on a nuclear deal that would replace the one Iran signed with president Obama to address issues raised by Mr. Trump and Republicans. Iran and countries that buy oil from Iran such as India, China and Japan have an interest in relief from sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on imports of Iranian oil. The European Union is keen to preserve aspects of the nuclear deal. Relief from sanctions is critical for Iran to develop its economy. The last two decades have seen Iran struggle to develop its economy with the sanctions imposed by  different U.S. administrations.   President Trump expressed flexibility on sanctions saying "we will see what happens. I think Iran has potential. They are incredible people." President Rouhani urged Mr. Trump "to put warmongers aside." Mr. Trump told reporters that he had resisted Mr. Bolton's opinions on issues and realized he had moderate views when compared to someone like Bolton.  Trump told Iran "We are not looking for regime change. We hope we can make a deal and if we can't make a deal thats fine too. But I think they have to make a deal." Helping the U.S. and Iran come to talks is president Macron of France who hopes to setup a meeting at the UN General Assembly which meets next week following his efforts at the G-7 meeting in France last month. In the past when tensions were high in the Straits of Hormuz President Trump refrained from aggravating this by saying actions that are "disproportionate" should not be taken and respected Iranian intentions. The tone of the conversation between the two sides has moderated to the point where both sides realize the need for coming to some compromise. This is in sharp contrast to the period a few months ago with rising tensions in the Straits of Hormuz and the seizure of an Iranian ship. Bolton's opinions were not the only issue for president Trump. He was also seen as the source of leaks including one that said Mike Pence, the Vice President, had opposed Mr. Trump's plan to bring the Taliban to Camp David. Also contributing to the new climate for talks is Mike Pompeo the Secretary of State, who has promoted the idea of talks with Iran. He told the media about such a meeting at the UN General Assembly in New York- "Sure. The president has made it very clear that he is prepared to meet with no pre-conditions." The willingness to try new ideas even contrary ones to policy pursued only a short while ago as long as the desired goal is reached is a feature of this presidency and key advisers. From the beginning of the Trump administration there is a firm sense of the need to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. and reduce foreign entanglements that have dragged on wasting resources and destroying priorities. With a willingness to try all sorts of approaches even ones that appear to be contradictory always keeping the end goal in sight. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Steps taken by Secretary of State Tillerson are drawing criticism from Senator McCain and Democrats in Congress for weakening the diplomatic efforts of the U.S. Before taking office Tillerson, who believes the State Department has a bloated staff, announced a 31% cut in its budget. A year later  the cuts are leading to the departure of many senior diplomats. Some like Mr. Miller have received only a few minutes to talk to Tillerson, six top career diplomats were fired by Tillerson. Most hiring is stopped and a $25,000 buyout is being promoted to get 2000 career diplomats to leave by October 2018. This report describes a retirement class for diplomats with 26 senior employees, including two acting secretaries of statein early 50's who would normally wait many years before retiring. The top two position ranks at State are career ambassador and career minister. This is cut from 39 to 19. Political appointees are also missing to fill positions with only 10 of 44 political positions filled. Some experts see a loss also in diversity as this happens. Differences between the Nikki Haley, who is the next senior official in America's foreign service and a potential successor to Tillerson, and Mr Tillerson are also complicating the situation at the State Department. During the Obama and Bush administrations experts cited the weak role played by the institutions such as diplomatic services in promoting America's role in the world. This was not corrected in any significant way in the last decade. The position of the diplomatic service has weakened further, along with the abandonment of America's leadership role under the presidency of Mr. Trump. It will require a future president's concerted effort to restore the diplomatic service under new leadership and with a new generation of diplomats more in tune with the multipolar world of today.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Macroprudential policies of central banks in S. Korea, Indonesia, China, Canada, and other countries, as concerns grow about a housing and credit bubble.

LyrArc Article Gist
The deal for a peaceful end to the protester camps of Morsi supporters arranged by the U.S. and the E.U. through the foreign ministers from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. E.U. envoy for Egypt, Bernardino Leon, says a simple package was proposed by Burns, Leon, and the two foreign ministers for removal of the camps to be followed by talks between the government and the Brotherhood party leading to new elections. Gen. Sissi refused to accept the package leading to the resignation of the leader of the secular parties, El Baradei. This deal by Leon is referred to by the minister for planning and international cooperation of the Morsi government in his op-ed in the NYT on August 16, 2013, and was an effort by the international community to bring a peaceful resolution of the problem leading to new elections.

LyrArc Article Gist
Some of the coverage such as this report in the WSJ looks at the empty stands and the loss of ticket sales, the strict rules that limited movement and the restrictions, seeing the Tokyo Olympics as a strange sporting event. Yet for the billions of viewers on television around the world the Olympics brought some relief and sense of exhilaration from the daily news of the delta variant and the pandemic. In many countries such as India, Britain, Canada, the US and Japan, viewers followed their favored athletes for 17 days. The Japanese government was able to pull this off precisely because they took the safe and tested route of empty stands and televised viewing around the world. This was also a needed precaution because of concern within Japan and fears of spread of the Delta variant.  The restrictions produced results- as 400 infections were confirmed for 190,000 people working at the games. Few clusters emerged from infection in the Olympic village as daily testing and rules for social distancing and hygiene were enforced for 11,000 events. Nine out of ten Japanese watched Japan win 58 gold medals including 9 in judo alone. In terms of grit and resilience, and keeping a glimmer of hope and revival during the pandemic, yet not letting its guard down even for a bit, accepting moments of doubt at times, Japan has shown the way when things are tough.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Gen. Dan Caine chairman Joint Chiefs video on Operation Midnight Hammer bombing of Iranian nuclear site at Fordow. Dan Caine traced the project for Fordow to 2009 when a small team was formed in the US Threat Reduction Agency inside the US War Department as the Fordow mountain site was being prepared- right from the outset of the beginnings of the Iranian efforts to bury weapons development deep inside a mountain. 15 years of work by the team leaders led to the US monitoring every aspect of work at Fordow for the day a US president decided it was time to remove that threat. DAn Caine showed in a video how the bombs actually work, not exploding like a conventional bomb but penetrating 2 shafts at the Fordow site and going down these shafts for 1000 feet before reaching the location where the nuclear centrifuges are located and the pressure inside doing most of the real damage during explosion at that point over thousand feet inside the mountain. The first 2 bombs removed the concrete caps put on the 2 shafts, subsequent 6 bombs each going through the shafts. This is the reason why the Guided Bomb Unit 57 which was made for this specific task mission at Fordow was effective. The CIA Director has stated he had a body of credible intelligence that the mission was effective and Iran nuclear program is severely damaged. ...