LyrArc Article Gist
The situation in Iraqi Kurdistan is covered in this WSJ report, with the referendum by the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq set for Sept 25, 2017. This is a region of 5.2 million people in northern Iraq. Adjoining it is a region with a mixed Arab and Kurdish population in oil rich Kirkuk province. The referendum is being held also in these areas as the Kurdish militia the Peshmerga took control of Kirkuk following the hasty withdrawal of the Iraqi army from attacks by Islamic State. Like the other aspects of the long war in Iraq this again complicates the U.S. position. As this report shows Arabs are being displaced in this part of Iraq after moving south as refugees. The Kurdish forces were a reliable ally for the U.S. in the war in 2015-2016, yet the U.S. maintains a policy of fairness towards all communities in Iraq. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The NASDAQ index reached 5000 by April 2015, a level reached in the stock market boom in 2000. Yet investment strategists who were wary of the stock market in the period before the 2000-2002 collapse of the market see this market differently. The NASDAQ itself is not what it was in 2000, with the 2015 NASDAQ component stocks being different for the most part, and the healthcare and other sectors better represented in the index. Only three of the stocks in the top ten in 2000 are in the top ten today, including Microsoft. The S&P 500 trades in April 2015 at 18.5 times its company earnings for the past 12 months, compared to an historical average of 15.5, according to research firm Bespoke. A big part of the difference today is the investment climate of low inflation, which gives the U.S. Federal Reserve flexibility in raising rates. Low rates make bonds with lower yields less attractive, and increase the present value of future earnings. The yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury was 1.917% on April 25, 2015. In April 2000 it was 6%, and in mid 2007 it was 5.3% before the financial crisis in the two periods. James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management oversees $347 billion in fund investments. He also was wary of the U.S. stock market in 1999, yet he does not see the similiar kind of risks today, and sees a long term bullish trend. The scenario he envisages is more of a pause or temporary decline. Paulsen has shifted money to European markets, as U.S. stocks are becoming more expensive relative to their European counterparts, a strategy that is being followed by other money managers since 2014. Higher price volatility is seen in the markets in 2015, with the S&P 500 up 2.9% for the first four months of 2015, and the Dow up 1.4%. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the NYT shows that some of the people who identified themselves as Republican in 2016 may not do so in 2017, as the Trump administration makes policy moves that are unpopular with sections of society that were earlier open to his new ideas. Gallup supports studies at Emory University showing a 4% shift, a 4% decline in identification with the GOP Republican label. After a eight years under a Democratic administration some fatigue set in and this was reflected in the election. Now that Republicans are in power in states and the federal level, they face a critical public spotlight on how their actions match the interests of their constituents. A similar process was seen in Britain, after the seeming support for Brexit in 2016. By 2017 some of that support shifted and some new energy on the side of Labor among young people made a difference in the last election with losses for the ruling Conservatives who supported Brexit. Normally this process takes time. Yet this time because ideas such as Brexit or withdrawal from the Paris climate change agreement, or the investigation into Russia and the U.S. election, are so drastic in their impact that the pendulum seems to correct itself by swinging to the middle. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In central Switzerland the Trift  Glacier is nowhere to be seen. In its place is the Trift bridge, a valley and a lake that is a popular destination for hikers. Like thousands of glaciers elsewhere it has melted away with climate change. Switzerland's 1500 glaciers and melting ice generates hydropower that powers 60 percent of the country's electricity. More melting ice means an increase in hydropower generation by 4 percent. Yet this is temporary. Eventually the melting glaciers from climate change mean fewer glaciers and less hydropower. The Alps have the most glaciers in Europe and provide the bulk of Europe's hydropower. Multimedia reporter Ben Solomon provides an exciting look at awesome pictures and media showing the glaciers, mountain generating plants and hydropower in the Alps. A rare look inside the hydropower that produces 16% of the world's electricity, that is now endangered. Researchers at the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich have a solution- to use the topography created by the melting glaciers including new lakes and areas that can be made into reservoirs that would be used to generate electricity. The glaciers in the Aletsch part of the Alps are one such region being studied. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This article in The Lancet published in February 2018 throws much light on how the ban on gain of function research on virus was lifted -research that carries with it the danger of increasing transmission of virus if something unexpected happens in the manipulation of a virus. It was lifted in 2018 in the US by officials in the US Health Ministry, NIH and HHS. The Cambridge group of scientists and experts opposed lifting the ban on such dangerous research that could make the virus more contagious through manipulation. Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of Harvard School of Public Health wrote at the time that the lab research to create a more lethal strain of virus could lead to "an accidental pandemic" yet he was ignored. The public in America and in the world is unaware of how this created serious risks for public health in the world through the coronavirus.  Did US health officials lift the ban on such research without consulting other countries such as India, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, and the EU on its ramifications. Were public health experts and the publics themselves in the US and around the world not drawn into the discussion of public health and the dangers that existed. Not only did officials in HHS and NIH restart the research by lifting the ban but also sent funds overseas for such research- was this a proper or thoughtful action considering the risks involved.  Is enhanced surveillance of virus- a dubious benefit from manipulation of a virus- something a few health officials can decide for the whole world in addition to the US. How are health officials in one or two countries responsible to the people in India, Brazil, Europe and the poorest populations in the world in the world in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, people who have suffered devastating consequences from transmissibility of the virus, including children and older people with health problems. India, Brazil, Italy, Spain, France, UK, and other countries worst hit by the coronavirus must ask serious questions about how they can protect their people if institutions in the US and international institutions are seen as failing to protect world public health. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
France showed zero GDP growth in the second quarter of 2012 compared to the first quarter, according to the national statistics office Insee. French president Hollande will have to raise 33 billion euros in spending cuts or higher taxes to reach the target for the budget deficit of 3% of GDPin 2013, according to a July report of Cour des Comptes, a body that audits public institutions. This will be harder now that the slowdown globally is leading to expectations of slower growth than the 1% growth forecast used in the audit. French president Hollande has so far received good marks from analysts and financial markets. French borrowing costs have reached new lows especially in short term maturity bonds where bondholders are lending money at zero interest rates, partly because of the flight to safety from Italian and Spanish bonds.

LyrArc Article Gist
With the UK budget deficit approaching 12%, Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, said at a postelection conference that he intended to intervene as little as possible in the election, yet it was important that he comment on the measures for reducing the fiscal deficit as it would color monetary policy for years to come. During the election King warned the the UK's top credit rating, "was ours to lose," and his comments were seized by Cameron to question Brown's handling of the economy. King said that Greece was a clear warning of what could happen if budget deficits were not brought under control. He also described the agreement to trim the budget deficit reached between the Liberals and the Conservatives as a very strong and powerful agreement. Conservatives say they plan $6 billion pounds in budget cuts this fiscal year.

LyrArc Article Gist
Foreign investment in the electricity generation industry has be encouraged by Russia. Ane Eni the Italian electricity generating company is a big investor acquiring one of the 5 OGK companies when its investments are complete of about $6 billion. And other European companies are following suit. E.ON a German utility has bought 47% of another wholesaler OGK-4 one of the five companies of the former UES parent of these 5 generation companoies and will acquire 70%. And a Finnish utility has invested in a regional generator. Gaz France and Korea Electric Power Corporation are looking at making investments. Russia's electricity generating business is growing at 6% and Russia is the world's fourth biggest power market. Though profits are small at present it is hoped that with deregulation profit margins will be good. The market to businessusers is already being deregulated.

LyrArc Article Gist
China is increasing export rebates aand investing in vocational training to keep the economy growing . Laid off workers are returning to their farms. THe real impact on growth and industrial production will come in 2009 according to Clement Chen, the chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries. Because China has sustained a high growth rate for so long and the US has not yet felt the full impact of the recession it is possible to underestimate the impact on China's export dependent economy of a deep slump in exports as western markets shrink. The current 9% for the third quarter which does not reflect the credit crisis of October in global markets shows merely the early impact of slowing growth, with serious debt induced dowturn in the western economies China could see its growth drop to 6-7%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The law in Germany says migrants seeking asylum can get jobs and benefits, training, yet if their asylum claim is rejected they have to be deported to their home country. Here a migrant from Gambia is shown having integrated with language classes, and training, yet his future is uncertain.  Germany's immigration policy under chancellor Merkel has changed first welcoming, and then to stave off challenge from the far right AfD party in elections it has set the task of deporting all those whose asylum applications are rejected. About 35% of applicants have been integrated by way of language classes, training for work. . Germany needed more people to both meet labor shortages, and to do jobs Germans did not want to do. Yet in the eastern part of Germany the mood has swung against such immigration policies and the Merkel CDU and CSU parties now see the best solution is for economic refugees to stay home and for Germany to help countries in Africa with aid and government help to stabilize the economic conditions.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Peter Fisher spent 15 years at the New York Fed and was actively involved in the resolution of the 1998 LTCM crisis. He is amanaging director of Black Rock. Yes interest rates were too low for too long and the Bernanke Fed's shift from the earlier era made the markets take a new hard look at the loose practices in the mortgage market leading to a crisis of confidence. There is only a 60-40 % chance that the Fed will lower rates on Sept 18. Globalization spreads risk but it can also cause the crisis to spread to all parts of the world very quickly.

LyrArc Article Gist
From the 1998 Corolla to the 2009 version the fuel economy has remained the same contrary to Toyota's image on fuel economy improvements. The revised EPA estimates for the 1998 Corolla 27 mpg city and 34 highway. 2009 Corolla with 1.8 liter is rated 27 city, 35 highway. About new imagination in design : very little except some tweaking here ad there, boring? yes according to some who were Toyota customers. Toyota has not been a leader as the Scion would suggest but with the Tundra and the Corolla more of a follower, consider that 370,000 Corolla were sold in 2007 making it the third best selling car in the USA.

LyrArc Article Gist
This interview by Michael Schmidt of the NYT with president Trump shows a more conciliatory mood following the passage of the Republican tax law. Trump says he feels Mueller will treat him fairly but that the investigation will drag along for some time. Trump says this is bad for the country.  On the tax law he says he would have tackled the local and state tax deduction either not touched it or worked out a compromise if Democrats agreed to talk to him about taxes. Democrats he says thought they had McCain's vote when he left for Arizona, yet that did not happen. He says expensing for investing in equipment should unleash growth through new investment in the U.S. On infrastructure he sees a hundred Democrats joining the Republicans in Congress to do a deal. He says Democrats need him for DACA on the Dreamers issue, and he will work with them.  Other topics covered were the election itself which Trump says he fairly won by focussing on the Electoral College and going frequently to small states like Maine, up and down the East Coast knowing he would lose New York. He says there was no collusion with the Russians for his campaign and says it was Democrats who did the collusion. Manafort worked longer for others including Reagan, says Trump, and was with him for only about 4 months. This interview shows a upbeat Trump following the passage of the tax legislation. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Samuelson points out that the golden age of bipartisan harmony never existed. Yet it is true to say that with the constant chatter on cable television and stridently expressed views, the activism of the more extreme wings of both American parties, and the role of money in politics, the partisan nature of politics in America has increased. And this is happening even when the Gallup polls from 1992 and 2010 show similiar numbers for the people who describe themselves as Conservative, Liberal or Moderate, showing that the people themselves haven't changed (42-43% Conservative, 35-36% Moderate, 17-20% Liberal), but activism at the edges of both parties has. In this condition, only 7% of americans have a "very positive view" of the Republican party, only 11% of Americans have a "very positive view" of the Democratic party and only 12% of Americans have a "very positive view" of the Tea party (even though the Tea party is at the height of its mometum). The net impact says Samuelson is that the nation's important problems get neglected. There is little discussion about the expenditure of blood and treasure in Afghanistan, says Tom Brokaw, see his article. There is little discussion of the need to rebuild America's deteriorating infrastructure. Or a serious discussion on deficits or energy. All this is lost in the dysfunctional politics of the moment. This is a significant observation....

LyrArc Article Gist
A surge in rural vote with anxieties about illegal immigration surges and little done by the Biden administration in the first two years when the surge from Venezuela became evident. The pandemic, vaccine was followed by two wars in the thrid and fourth year, yet the immigration issue was allowed to grow without forceful action to close the border and pass legislation early in the first 2 years, with an objective assessment of the situation as has happened in first Socialists in Denmark, northern Europe, and then Britain as the Labour party shifted to shut down illegal immigration in its policies by 2022. The unease in rural areas was accompanied by unease among younger people 18-34 years over cost of living, and the unease among Latinos in general and Black people  without a college degree.  Taking an approach to the wars that would remove them as distractions by looking for a settlement in Ukraine through negotiations, and prioritizing strong action on the border, price surges would have helped tackle pressing issues that caused so much unease.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Free Democrats led by Christian Lindner are polling about 4% a week before the elections in Germany. Lindner's FDP was part of the Scholz SPD Greens coalition after winning 11% of the vote in 2021. Elections would be held in 2025 March. Yet with FDP breaking away from the coalition as its popularity dropped elections will be held next week. From the beginning this coalition was not a good one as FDP supported the debt brake and no spending, when Greens and SPD promised investment in infrastructure that were neglected by Merkel's CDU. Germany economy as shown in the article alongside by Tankersely and Eddy reporting from Wittenberg in the eastern region, has not grown in 5 years. Crumbling infrastructure is seen everywhere in cities across the country and the rail system lacks much needed investment.  Scholz wants to reverse this with Made in Germany and remove the debt brake. The CDU wants to cut taxes and regulation. No one knows if the FDP will pass 5% of the vote needed to have representation in parliament. It happened before for FDP- before the 2021 election. ...