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Argentina imposes currency controls as the economic crisis worsens. The peso has lost 25% of its value and inflation is at 50%. A $57 billion IMF loan has failed to restore confidence. President Macri came into office abolishing currency controls, now he is compelled to reverse his policy. Macri also said the government will delay $7 billion in debt repayments. Argentina is back to the frequent economic crises it has faced since 1945. Macri's loss in primary elections to Mr. Fernandez of the Peronist Party has changed the situation in Argentina ending the Macri administration's period in office by December.

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The bottom half of all U.S. households have only recently recovered the wealth lost in the 2009 financial crisis. They still have 32% less wealth than in 2003 when inflation is taken into account. The top 1% of households have more than twice as much as they did in 2003. Wealth is defined as net worth that includes houses , savings and stocks minus any debt. The wealthy have 85% of their wealth in stocks and bonds. For the bottom 50% half of the assets are in the house or family home. Economic and regulatory trends have happened in ways that favored the people investing in stocks, and rescued people investing in stocks with policies designed with this purpose by central banks and the U.S. government. By contrast for the bottom 50% buying a home is more difficult today. The problem this WSJ report points out is that the next recession would most hurt the bottom 50%, even before they have recovered from the last one which was a result of shaky practices of banks in financial lending and not some cyclical swing in the economy. Policy was then geared to provide a recovery first for stock markets as a way to economic recovery. The bottom 50% have little stake in the stock market, the top 1% have most of their gains from the stock market. Much of the popular anger comes from the way policies by both Democrats and Republicans differed little in past administrations in the way they approached this in shaping economic policy. As a result infrastructure building and investments in public services took less priority in this period of 30 years with trade imbalances with China building up on the external front, in another side to this development. The shift to Trump and to right wing populists in Europe is only the first phase in the corrective action that has to take place to return to a fairer distribution of wealth that existed before the last 3 decades. Eventually it is not right wing or left wing factions or parties, but healthy policies, that matter to create a better balance for society.  ...

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Apple's sales in India are insignificant because of the lack of 3G networks. RIM's Blackberry and apps work well on the existing 2G networks. Prices are higher with the cheapest iPhone costing $705 at a Reliance iStore. The cheapest iPad 2 goes for $603. Blackberry phones cost less than $200. As a result Apple's iPhone sales are only 2.6% of India's smartphone shipments for the 2nd quarter 2011. RIM's is 15%, Samsung Electronic's is 21%, and Nokia's 46%, according to IDC. RIM is extending its distribution in India from 15 cities in 2010 to 80 cities in 2011. IDC estimates that smartphone shipments in India will grow by 68% a year, reaching 81.5 million units by 2015.

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Hear the complete speech of German Chancellor Scholz to an extraordinary session of the German Parliament on DW.com. This may be the most important speech in the last 30 years of German history since reunification. An extraordinary speech that sets the tone for the new Europe that Germany leads with its partners in the European Union. Fundamentally Scholz tells the German people that Germany is fighting alongside Europe for its freedom and democracy, so that the last 30 years of peace are seen not as an exception in history. Germany will not let Putin take us back to the imperial wars of the 19th century, Putin told parliament. Scholz tells the German people sending arms to Ukraine "was the only response possible to Russian aggression." He also tells them that it was not the Russian people, it was Putin who had launched this aggression. "This is Putin's War. Putin is destroying the European security structure." "A peaceful free Europe, we will defend it." This is the way Scholz finished his speech. Scholz outlined 5 actions Germany was taking including actions on investing $100 billion in Bundeswehr armed forces, in strengthening NATO capabilities, in building up Germany's technological capabilities, in 2 huge natural gas terminals. The entire German parliament stood up to applaud for a long time as Scholz described how Germany was with the Russian people who braved arrest to protest Putin's War, and there are many, many, Russians who do not support the war. Reconciliation with Russia remains a building block of German policy he said.   ...

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About $50 billion of the $170 billion in government money that went to AIG has gone to counterparties that bought credit default swaps from AIG, couterparties like Goldman Sachs, Merrill, Societe Generale, and Calyon another French bank. The Fed has resisted disclosure of these names. If the Fed had not done this insurance experts say some of these banks would have taken hits on their capital cushions, which they keep as reserve against such losses. And they say these banks would have been stretched if that happened. These counterparties were made whole against these losses. Critics ask why these counterparties should not have been compensated with a discount, so that they bore some risk and took a small haircut. But it appears that with the banks in a fragile condition the Fed decided to take this step.

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Pakistan has always suffered from tax collection that is some of the poorest in the world. This leaves little money for badly needed infrastructure and roads. At a time when countries such as Indonesia and India are rapidly building roads and infrastructure, Pakistan depends on projects and financing almost entirely from China.  This means dependence on foreign debt financing such as that of the $2 billion Orange Line, Pakistan's first Metro line in Lahore. This is one of the first projects one of $16 billion in projects started from a planned $62 billion under China's Belt and Road Initiative. The problem is that taking on so much debt leaves Pakistan dependent on Chinese financing, with increased debt payments leading to a debt crisis. External debt will double to over $100 billion from a little over $50 billion in 2013, according to the IMF, reaching 30% of GDP. External financing needs have doubled from 4% of GDP or about $10 billion in 2013-2015 period doubling to over $20 billion and 8% of GDP. A steep increase in debt in a space of only 3 years. Pakistan faces problems similar to that faced by other countries including Ceylon, Burma. Pakistan has fallen behind on debt payments for electricity projects, because of problems getting Pakistanis to pay electric bills. Other problems are that the projects use Chinese workers and Chinese contractors so that they do not generate jobs the way projects would normally generate domestic jobs and growth including pushing domestic firms up the experience and knowledge curve in construction and technology. The opaqueness of the deals lead to a lack of required transparency. The projects also lack the almost zero interest financing from Japan of projects such as the first bullet train in India on Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor because of the lack of negotiating leverage and other problems.  By early fall 2018 Pakistan is expected to seek IMF financing, which would lead to conditions set by the IMF on how much it can borrow and spend under the Belt and Road Initiative, known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC. This means effectively that the Wst will bail out a country after investments under the Belt and Road Initiative. ...

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Mario Draghi, former head of the European Central Bank, who ran ECB policy to rescue the Euro currency in 2012 is being asked to form a new government by the president. Mr. Conte's coalition failed to get the support of Matteo Renzi's left party in parliament leading to its collapse.  Italians are wary of the austerity policies of Mario Monti,  professor and EU bureaucrat appointed by premier Berlusconi to the EU Commission, who was appointed  during the eurozone financial crisis in November 2011 by the president.  At the time prime minister Berlusconi had lost the confidence of EU officials. Mario Draghi has a different history after his work at the European Central Bank counteracting the austerity approach of German finance ministry. He also steered the ECB policy at a difficult time for Italy with rising interest on debt. Today Italy has lost about 89,000 lives, and 8.8% of GDP was lost in 2020. Moderate factions of all parties right and left wing are expected to support Draghi. Draghi also has the advantage of 200 billion in euro funds coming from the EU for Italy's recovery in 2021. Germany today is not the austerity policy Germany of 2011, as it supports going big and spending for the recovery. ...

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In the past no confidence motions against president Macron's government put forward by a group of left parties failed by 50 votes. Today's no confidence motion by the left parties led by Mr. Melenchon failed by just 7 votes. The vote for a separate no confidence motion of right parties led by Marine Le Pen failed by a wide margin. 19 members of the centrist Les Republicains with 61 members in the National Assembly voted against Macron's government. This means the government will find it harder to govern. A survey by French polling firm Elabe shows 65% of French people polled support the strikes against the pension overhaul. For Mr. Melenchon's coalition of parties this means it is drawing support from centrists in an effort to form the next government that addresses the issues of workers and families in the way president Biden is doing in the US.

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The important thing is doing the right thing- building America, building jobs and wages for average Americans. All Americans. Dionne writes in The Washington Post that Biden investments  in renewable energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing, are promoting growth in all parts of the country, many of them rural, Republican leaning, that have experienced decades of neglect. And others once part of the 50's and 60's Truman Kennedy period Democrat leaning- parts of the northeast, the midwest that had suffered badly from outsourcing and sending of jobs to China. A rising tide lifts all boats, in the words of John Kennedy, and Biden tells a Philadelphia rally of union workers that looking back 10 years from now it would be seen that this is when it all started.

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Fifteen heads ofhome building and financial services firms each got $100 million in cash compensation and sales of stock during the past 5 years according to a WSJ analysis. Four of those heads of companies including heads of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers led companies that filed for bankruptcy. The overall study looked at heads of 120 public companies in sectors like banking and mortgage finance, student lending, stock brokerage, and home building, showed that top directors and executives of the firms cashed out a total of $21 billion during the past 5 years. In the tech bubble of the late 1990's more than 50 individuals each made more than $100 million from selling shares just prior to the crash, with many founding companies that were never profitable. With much of the profit coming in areas like mortgage finance and banking where many of the errors dangerous leveraging and risktaking, and failure in ethics, caused the global financial crisis, the whole issue of executive compensation without results or pernicious to the public interest is taking centre focus for today's public opinion. With the auto industry also there is a perception that there was poor management and failure to respond to national and later customer need for energy conservation till late in the day, and yet the executive compensation and entrenched management behaviours and lobbying in Congress suggested a management impervious to public opinion....

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Both Harris and Trump favor increasing Border Security in October 2024. A tough approach being taken by Harris as well as Trump and in Mexico by president Claudfia Sheinbaum in her first 100 days to fight the crime and cartels at the Southern Border.

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The last Wisconsin court race cost $55 million. This one of Crawford vs Schimel is shaping up to be a repeat with spending on both sides and Musk involved. Musk donated as much as $300 million in the November 5 election Trump vs Harris.

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With the aggressive actions taken along the 1600 kilometre border in eastern Ladakh by China's People's Liberation Army, India needs a younger soldier to protect the border at high altitudes in below freezing temperatures. The entire 3500 kilometre border in the high Himalayan regions from east to west need technology driven surveillance with soldiers fit and ready for such duty. Agnipath's goal is to bring down the average age in the army from 32 years to 26 years to better reflect the youthful population in India. A tighter better disciplined force with high tech is needed. Bringing in more and new recruits is intended. Both the 25% of recruits retained after 4 years benefit and the 75% benefit. The 25% will have opportunities to move up the ranks. The 75% who come back out of the military will have the advanced technical training and courses, certification, that would make them attractive to the public and private sector companies in 2026 and beyond when India's economy will be 50% larger than today at growth rates of 10-12%. This is already seen in the way technologically trained military recruits from World War II in the US Army, Navy and Air Force were quickly absorbed at high salaries in the high growth period of America 1950-1970, with incentives like the GI Bill. Modifications that could be discussed- The 25% retained after 4 years. There is no magic number it could be raised to 30 or 40% during these post pandemic years and then lowered to 25% as the economy grows rapidly by 2025, or kept at 30% without changes, a number of options could be open.The financial aspect of the training can be modified where the 25% retained could have these 4 years added to their years for calculating pensions. The 75% are given 1.2 million rupees and even this can be adjusted upwards so that they could start businesses as entrepreneurs or have the time to pursue higher education before taking up for example with free education to enhance their education in areas of interest as was given by the GI bill to Americans in the armed services after World War II in 1946. Ideas from the GI Bill signed by president Franklin Roosvelt in 1944- Adding one year of unemployment payments, low interest loans to start a farm or business, full tution and living expenses for college. In 2008 the Veterans Act in the US continued support for education of servicement by making eduction free at a public college or university.  The Roosevelt GI bill benefited about 7.8 million servicemen in the US armed services. 2.2 million went to college, 7.6 million took training programs. It was an impressive achievement. No scheme is perfect there are budgetary constraints such as how to manage pensions to give the armed services the best possible funding including the training and course capabilities that also need good financing and the higher pensions for armed services. Every political party  government around the world without exception will have to face these budgetary constraints and the goal is to do right by the armed services providing the income and opportunities they deserve. Was a decent effort made with the right goals set? This is how these matters of national interest for India and the Free World that includes South East Asia, Africa and Latin America, should be discussed.    ...

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The effect on Asia of the US Fed's action on November 3, 2010, to buy $600 billion of US Treasury securities. This will create even more inflows of capital into emerging markets. Hong Kong with its currency pegged to the dollar, effectively imports low interest rates from the US, at a time when property prices have risen 50% since early 2009. And with the growth in China, Hong Kong's economy is growing rapidly. This risks a price bubble. The response in Hong Kong is to tighten lending restrictions on property purchases. South Korea is considering imposing controls on the inflow of capital. The Thai baht is up 11% against the US dollar in 2010, the Korean won 6%, and the Philippine peso 8%.

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About 600 US and European company brands are leaving Russia. This report in the WSJ shows how ordinary Russians are coping with jobs in limbo. Many of these companies are continuing to pay employees but jobs remain uncertain. This includes companies like Sweden's IKEA that are popular in Russia. As western sanctions make operating difficult companies future is uncertain. This is creating anti-Western sentiment particularly in the rural areas which use mostly Russian made products and which are Putin's main source of support. Even Russians who question the attacks on Ukraine are skeptical how the withdrawal of these companies helps find a solution for Ukraine. This is happening even as the errors made by 4 term German chancellor of increasing the dependence of Germany on Russian energy supplies from 36% during Putin's annexation of Crimea to 55% today are becoming abundantly clear.That makes an energy embargo on Russia difficult for Europe, with German business saying this would be "catastrophic" because it is unprepared even though this alone provides about $1 billion a day to Putin's Russia. Meanwhile EU and other western leaders call attention to India's drawing 1-2% of its energy supplies from Russia even though one month of Indian imports is equal to just one afternoon of European oil and gas imports from Russia. India has done more than Merkel's Germany to meet the need for humanitarian vaccine assistance for the poor countries of Asia and Africa, Middle East, and is now engaged in meeting the needs of the world for foodgrains after the fallout from an Ukraine crisis that is a result of emboldening of Russia from Merkel's policies.  ...

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What is the best way to get ahead in a company? New studies show that the most important thing to do is to pick the right company for mobility and advancement, getting further education and skills, and for job stability. The studies shown here were done by the Burning Glass Institute in Philadelphia and the Harvard Project on Managing the Future of Work, the Schultz Family Foundation. The study looked at workers in 200 companies over a 5 year period to understand what helps workers build good careers. Companies that rank high for employee retention and pay are Adobe, Alphabet, Boeing, Microsoft. Companies promoting workers without a college degree are Southwest Airlines, AT&T, American Express, CISCO. For launchpads to further mobility Apple and AT&T do well. The main thing is that a person gets into the right company which has big consequences yet the workers starting out they don't have the visibility to make an educated choice, says an expert who did the study.  ...

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During the Ukraine war this special feature on the European Council website shows what it is doing to mitigate the impact of the war when it comes to the food supply for the world. 48 million tons of agricultural products were exported by the land routes opened by the EU when sea routes were blocked. $1 billion is allocated by the EU finance for this purpose. Ukraine makes up 50% of the world's food exports- it is a breadbasket to the world. Getting food supplies out is essential to keep down the cost of food. Half a billion euros go to keeping EU food production strong. Nine billion euros support the effort to keep food supplies flowing to poor countries.

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An account of the meetings between Speaker Boehner and president Obama in the fiscal cliff negotiations. The WSJ pieced together the flow of the negotiations based on interviews with aides and lawmakers. There is little to show the two sides closer than before the election. If anything the WSJ report concludes the discussions this time left both sides further apart, and the lack of trust in the relations between Republicans and president Obama has worsened. Speaker Boehner asks Obama at one meeting what he gets in return for offering $800 billion in revenues and Obama tells him he gets nothing. At another meeting Obama tells Boehner he is asking Obama to accept Mitt Romney's tax plan and sees no reason to do that. Obama's first offer is for $1.6 trillon in new revenue over 10 years, a permanent increase in the debt ceiling and $400 billion in spending cuts. The Republicans find 25 cents of spending cuts for every dollar in tax increases as simply unacceptable and hold out for $1 in cuts for $1 in new tax revenues. Obama drops down to $1.2 trillion in new revenues and Boehner asks for $100 billion in additional spending cuts. Boehner drops a demand for raising the Medicare eligibility age. Obama raises the tax figure for the Bush tax increases to incomes over $400,000, Boehner proposes $1 million. But no level of trust has been gained in the negotiations. And no rapport established, as at one point Boehner tells Obama the two can just stare at each other or he Boehner could come back. Boehner then proposes to pass Plan B in the House for Bush tax cuts on incomes over $1 million. At that point the president feels the Republicans are not negotiating in good faith and some Republican Congressman in the House say they would not support Plan B. The distrust on all sides is worse than before. In the weeks leading to this in Dec. 2012 a review of oped pages show Democrats and Republicans saying a bad agreement- meaning too much in spending cuts for Democrats and too much in tax increases for Republicans- was worse than the fiscal cliff of automatic cuts, which could be addressed in other ways....

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The behaviour of the people at private equity in destroying jobs in the midst of the worst job market in decades. In this case the private equity names are Cerberus, Sun Capital, and Lubert-Adler and the jobs are the 30,000 jobs at Mervyns in 2004 when it was acquired by private equity firms for $1.2 billion from Target. All of these jobs are gone. Target bought Mervyns in 1978 for $300 million, but neglected Mervyns even as it focussed on the Target franchise using Mervyn's earnings to do that, it then sold Mervyn's in 2004 to private equity firms. The private equity firms took out $400 million in cash from the firm even as they burdened Mervyns with $800 million in debt. After the acquisition they formed two companies, one with the retail business and the other with the real estate assets of Mervyns, which they went out and sold to get cash out of the company. The real estate was then rented back to Mervyns by the new owners at twice the rent, as Mervyns had a lower rent negotiated many years ago. All that debt and the higher rent and the underinvestment in the brand put Mervyns into a death spiral, with the economic downturn killing the company and pushing it into liquidation, with workers losing even their vacation pay. What does this mean for the rest of the economy? According to Standard and Poors /LCD Group, from 2005 through the third quarter of 2008 private equity firms loaded a huge $741 billion of debt onto their companies'balance sheets. Its not that private equity firms operate without taking on debt, but in the low interest and high liquidity environment of recent years the debt levels soared. Now in the credit collapse lenders are pulling back and debt heavy companies cannot refinance, and fear has set in. According to Capital IQ, of 105 big USA companies that have filed for bankruptcy in 2008, 66 are owned by private equity buyout firms or spun off by them. Investors are nervous about these companies and loans made for these deals are trading at 33 cents on the dollar. ...

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The former president having 81% of the vote for non college educated in the primaries and  small percentage of votes among college educated means that if elected it would be that a whole population of college educated people are being effectively disenfranchised in choosing the government. It means that democracy that took over 200 years to include people with less education and income in selecting a government has moved in 2024 to doing the opposite excluding the educated with all its implications for good government of such a lopsided state of affairs. A recent poll shows 81% of Haley's 250,000 votes in the Republican primary would not vote for the former president. Haley won moderates by 61% to 31%. Trump won those without a college degree by 82% to 13% for Haley. Trump support huge in rural areas, Haley's in the suburbs.This shows how different this Republican party is from that even as recent as 2015. In fact Gallup has found that in 1999 the Democratic party was a plus 14 percentage points for non college educated and in 2024 the Republican party is a plus 14 percentage points for non college educated. Among postgraduate educated the gap was 8 percentage points in 1999 and now has widened to where Democrats have 60% to Republicans 21%. ...

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China trade pause deadline of Aug 12 and its renewal. US negotiators Bessent and Greer in Stockholm report back to DJT for a final decision on whether to extend the trade truce with China by 3 months. China wants to remove the duty related to fentanyl entering the US from origins of the chemicals in China of 20% imposed by DJT, yet trade negotiators say no significant improvements on cracking down on the chemicals used to make fentanyl are seen. Currently duties are at 50-55% and would go up to 80% without a truce. The UK, Japan and European Union, Indonesia, Vietnam have come up with trade agreements with the US by July 28, 2025.

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Rebuilding in Ukraine is focused on destroyed bridges and infrastructure as Russia continues to destroy apartment blocks, and targets the electricity grid.  Many of the apartment blocks destroyed outside Kviv in Irpin in this story are hard to rebuild because of the constant attacks most recently with hypersonic missiles that are hard to detect. A couple fled from Donetsk, settled in Irpin in a new apartment only to have to flee again after a Russian missile attack left their apartment building in ruins. How do you build in the midst of a war is the question Ukrainians ask themselves every day. About 150,000 apartment buildings and half the electricity grid is destroyed, so also 1500 schools and 20,000 kilometres of roads. It would cost $350 billion to repair. It would require policy decisions on what quality of building materials and how many to apartment buildings to build and how quickly.

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The Editorial Board of the WSJ says the vote in the German parliament 586 in favor and 100 opposing for sending heavy weapons to Ukraine brings Germany and the US, Britain and France closer in efforts to turn back the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The resolution of support for Ukraine clearly states the German parliamentary position says WSJ- efforts for a ceasefire that will be agreed to by Ukraine and western allies. The Scholz government is asked in the resolution to support "all efforts by the a Ukrainian government to reach a ceasefire in direct negotiations with the Russian leadership." It also states "it must be clear that there can be no negotiations over the heads of the Ukrainians." WSJ says it hopes chancellor Scholz listens to the German parliament with 586 out of 686 calling for efforts to turn back the invasion in coordination with allied efforts.

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The Trump campaign rally forms the core of a movement that held together and turned into one of the most steadfast movements in modern American political history. It has changed the Republican Party. About 5-10% of the people attending the rallies are steadfast supporters who attend multiple rallies. This WSJ report profiles one attendee who is a 64 year old retiree who trusts Trump to personally deliver the news to her at these rallies. Of the 550 campaign events conducted by Trump 70% are trademark rallies. Most rally diehards are white and many are retired or have the time on their hands, not tied to home, some even live from paycheck to paycheck. Some love the energy, and some even voted for Mr. Obama. Most are not rich by any means, but fed up with Bush and Obama, and what they call "the swamp." 

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A small rise in interest rates of 1% can add about $7 billion to revenues for Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and JP Morgan Chase banks, according to estimates cited in WSJ. This is because short term loans which predominate today can reprice quickly for banks and rates for depositors at banks do not change much. This is a more reliable source of revenue and one on which the banks have depended for much of the past 100 years. The use of complex instruments and shady instruments such as the mortgages devised in the 2009 mortgage financial crisis did little for banks and instead caused a major financial crisis in the shape of economic depression with income and job losses for families and workers in the US and in the rest of the world. Complexity meant less transparency in this context, more chances of messing up finances, and bad news for America and the world.