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Dvid Attenborough, the naturalist and broadcaster, says he has campaign for years against plastic pollution and no one paid attention. Now he says people are fed up with politics of Brexit and are showing great interest in fighting single use plastic. He says the people in the U.S. are acting even though the president Mr. Trump has taken action for withdrawing from the Paris climate change agreement. He sees things can change quickly if there is a new president and policy changes. 

He is heartened by the way people have received the movie Blue Planet 2 and the action politicians and ordinary people are taking. He thanks primary school teachers for all the work they are doing and the enthusiasm shown.

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Irish prime minister Varadkar resigns after what critics call a "gimmicky" referendum to change language respecting women's role at home to coincide on International Women's Day. It was rejected by about 70% of the vote with about 44% of people voting and little understanding of what this was about as the wording was poorly done and it was not well thought out. If it was about respecting women and promoting participation outside the home the government could take steps as Japan and India at different economic stages are doing. Would changing the Indian or Japanese constitutional wording make a difference or the government making the efforts to broaden opportunities and remove obstacles and impediments to women's participation.

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A coordinated release of petroleum reserves from the International Energy Agency and 30 participating countries is planned in the event something like the attack on Saudi oil facilities happens. About 5% of the worlds oil supplies were put out in the attack. If 7% are lost then the IEA would step in to call for release of petroleum reserves of individual countries. As of July 2019 1.5 billion barrels of oil are in storage in emergency reserves. U.S. SPR reserves are estimated at 644 million barrels and the figures are 100 million barrels for each of Germany, Japan and France, and China at 344 million barrels. These man made caverns are as long as 2000 feet.

The last time this release happened was in 2011 after the Libyan war disruptions. 

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Experts say the artificial sweetmers in Diet Coke increase the risks of stroke or dementia by 3 times. President Trump of the U.S. takes 12 diet cokes a day, according to the NYT report cited here. Some studies even show weight gain from soda with artificial sweeteners even though these sodas have no sugar and less fat. The problem they say is in how the diet soda is paired with food high in carbohydrates or fast foods with poor nutrients. Taking a diet soda with a Big Mac or fast foods is not healthy than if it is consumed alone. Another problem is that more needs to be known about the effects of artificial sweeteners, because new findings and research could come up with surprises. 

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The private -government partnership Summers and Geithner see happening for restoring confidence in the banks may be a child of necessity as Congress is not too keen on providing large bailout funds in addition to the funds approved in TARP. But it has the same problems of pricing these assets for an aggregator bank that were seen from the beginning. How does one price a bad asset? If priced too low banks may not agree and if priced higher or on generous terms it risks taxpayer money. These problems still linger on in the continuing effort to sort the problems out.

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If he now believes it is a structural shift and not a cyclical one, if he thinks consumer behavious is changing, and rapidly, CEO Wagoner of General Motors owes his shareholders and other stakeholders like the company's own employees and loyal customers an explanation of why it took so long for him to arrive at this conclusion. And why is the Hummer still sitting there in GM's product line, and the Chevy Suburban, vehicles that never belonged once the craze for bigger vehicles was past its peak in 2006 and 2007, some 1-2 years prior to today.

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Britain's prime minister survives a vote in parliament called by the camp in her part that opposes a hard Brexit that calls for Britain severing connections with the EU. After she caved in to some demands from the camp that supports a hard Brexit on the issue of EU customs union, others with different views in her party called for a vote in parliament through an amendment. Theresa May survived this vote by just 6 votes following a vote a few days before called by the Brexit hard liner camp in her party which she survived. Britain's electoral Commission ruled that the Vote Leave campaign had violated the law by exceeding the spending limit of 7 million pounds by funnelling 675,000 pounds to BeLeave a pro Brexit youth group. There is now no certainty that a Brexit deal can make it through parliament if it is reached with the EU. A fresh election, or a second referendum on Brexit or terms of Brexit are likely if May's government collapses in 2018.  ...

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Under the new change voting rights would be allocated at 42.1 % of the IMF's voting power to developing nations, and 57.9% for developed nations. The US has more than 15% of the voting rights and the EU has more than 15%.IMf's important decisions require 85% of the vote. This comes though at a time when the IMF is a less relevant institution for todays international financial institutions and international financial markets one could say outmoded to today's and tomorrow's needs. And the fairer allocation of voting rights comes a decade later than when it was needed during the Asian financial crisis and contagion effects on Brazil and Russia, when the IMF's positions did not show as good an understanding of the needs and problems facing developing countries as it could have, especially giving it a human face. Moreover the rotation of the position of the head of the IMF between financial leaders of the USA and Europe, as is true of the World Bank does not lend them to fresh thinking from countries in Asia and other parts of the world like Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the ability to bring afresh perspective from these countries. ...

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The Economist describes the fraud in the election and the odious group of warlords and crooks that Karzai has pulled together to get support for this election. If they get as reward positions in the ministries then "the war is over" according to one diplomat. And without acredible government the chances are poor for any"good outcomes." Eide, the UN diplomat in the country says ultimately this will be decided not by governments but by people sitting at thier kitchen tables making up their mind as the follow the information in the media. And the President has only 37% of Democrats with him who want to see more troops in Afghanistan in a recent poll.

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Keith Bradsher's NYT interview with Raghuram Rajan, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, comes when Rajan has come under criticism from the business sector and the small business support base of prime minister Modi's party. The criticism centers on the drop in oil prices since Nov. 2014, and Rajan's failure to drop interest rates at the Dec. 2, 2014 central bank meeting. Rajan says it was not clear whether oil prices would remain low for an extended period at the Dec. 2, 2014 meeting. Since then new inventory data, EIA estimates and OPEC policy guidance have confirmed low prices will remain for an extended period. Rajan lowered interest rates on Jan. 14, 2015, by one quarter of a percentage point. Under India's setup the central bank chief makes decisions on interest rates, compared to the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee at the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rajan says there is full understanding between the central bank and the Modi government economic team led by finance minister Arun Jaitley, Jayan Sinha, deputy minister of state for finance, and chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanium. Modi and Jaitley prefer to rely on the advice and policy direction of economic policymakers with long experience in the U.S. and international circles. Both Subramanium and Rajan bring this level of experience and expertise. Subramanium brings experience from his years at the GATT which preceded the WTO, the IMF, and the Peterson Institute of International Economics, and Rajan brings experience at the University of Chicago, and as chief economist of the IMF. Modi is a dilgent listener and policymaker giving careful attention to the best advice, making it unlikely that Rajan would be seen as a holdover from the administration of Manmohan Singh. Other criticism that the business sector has made of Rajan are as financial regulator in asking state banks to increase collateral required from large business firms for large bank loans. Rajan points out the need for business to bear the costs as well as the benefits of taking risks. Under previous governments the state banks allowed large firms to keep their holdings at companies even when the risk taking resulted in losses. Rajan has also not tried to reverse the sharp decline in the rupee, which hurts business firms which took on dollar denominated loans. Rajan has instead followed policy of building up the reserves by buying dollars. The reserves were depleted in 2013 by a policy of currency interventions to reverse that decline. Inflation in India reached 9.9% in Dec. 2013, with policy of the central bank under Rajan set to bring it down to 8% in 2014, and below 6% in 2015, so that India could get out of the trap of persistently high inflation with slow growth. This is critical for a new Indian success story. A goal set by Rajan in Oct. 2012 when he was appointed as central bank chief, was to increase foreign investment and encourage new business so that India was no longer dependent on large companies for growth. This is also critical for a new Indian success story, as the Modi administration and the central bank are both keenly aware. Just as Bernanke and now Yellen at the U.S. Fed face criticism for quantitative easing monetary policy, focus on the high long term unemployed, and not focussing on inflation- with their focus on the long term economic recovery in an environment of low inflation below 2% in the U.S.- India's Reserve Bank faces a different kind of criticism for careful and prudent policies to ensure long term growth....

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The new conservative administration of Mariano Rajoy is expected to cut spending to reduce the deficit from the 8.1% expected by analysts for 2011, to 3% in 2013. The deep cuts would worsen the unemployment rate of 20%. Spanish banks need recapitalization of 26 billion euros according to the European Banking Authority, about 2.5% of GDP. Spain's 10 year bond yields reached 6.34% on Nov. 15, 2011, close to Italy's 7.10%. With the situation worsening in Greece and Italy, the perception is that there is not much the Rajoy administration can do in the current situation to improve the economy in Spain. Rajoy's plans are to improve labor market flexibility, cut business taxes, and control government spending.

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The Spanish government said on May 23, 2012 that it will provide 9 billion euros to help Bankia cover capital provisions for bad loan losses. The government took control of Bankia in early May 2012. Bankia was formed by merging 7 troubled cajas savings banks. It has about 10% of Spain's loans and deposits. Bankia has the largest exposure of financial institutions in Spain to real estate loans. Of 37.52 billion euros in loans for real estate, about half or 17.85 billion euros are troubled loans. Spain's approach to the banking crisis from the real estate bubble was to merge failing banks with smaller amounts of government money as aid, and having the new entities raise cash through initial public offerings. For Bankia most of the nonperforming loans were separated and placed in BFA, the parent company. Bankia did an IPO in July 2011 raising 3 billion euros. Since the IPO Bankia has lost half the value in its share price for large losses to investors. Under new capital provisioning rules set by the government for banks to adequately cover nonperforming real estate loans, Bankia needs 7.1 billion euros. An additional 1.9 billion euros is needed for capital requirements for a total of 9 billion euros, which is the amount of the capital injection by the Spanish government. Finance minister Guindos told parliament that the rest of the Spanish banking system can withstand adverse scenarios....

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Serious concern about lower consumer spending in the U.K that would reduce growth and reduce government tax receipts. The unemployment rate has remained at 7.6% for 22 months. Wage levels are not keeping up with inflation of about 4.5%. The increase in the sales tax from 17.5% to 20% has added three quarters of one percent to the inflation rate, according to the National Statistics Office. VocaLink says annual wage growth in the three months through May 2011 was 1.8%, much lower than the inflation rate. Deep spending cuts are going into effect in 2011-2012, and about 300,000 jobs would be lost in the public sector with spending cuts by 2015. The IMF has reduced its estimate for growth in the U.K. to 1.5% from 1.7%. At the same time the Bank of England is under pressure to increase the interest rate of 0.5% (which is a record low), to control inflation. Britain under prime minister Cameron plans to cut government spending from 47% of GDP to 40% of GDP over six years. This will take 6 years of spending cuts, something even a previous prime minister Margaret Thatcher was not able to do. The government's Office of Budget Responsibility predicts a drop in the deficit from 11% of GDP to 7.9% by March 2012. Yet a lot depends on government tax receipts which in turn depend on economic growth. Britain showed a large deficit of 10 billion pounds in April 2011, and the situation is fraught with a high degree of uncertainty....

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Informed sources say Portugal will require 90 billion euros ($129 billion) in a bailout package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Of this 10 billion euros will be needed in June 2011. Germany's finance minister Schauble, said the austerity program that is part of the bailout will be put together in the next 2-3 weeks with the help of the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the IMF. The bailout will probably be structured in several phases coming before and after June 5 elections in Portugal. The current Socrates administration and a new administration will share responsibility in negotiations for the deal. The opposition Social Democrats who are front runners supported by 39% of the voters and the CDS party with 7%, both support the current government's bailout request. A Social Democrats-CDS coalition is likely after the June elections. The leader of the Social Democrats, Pedro Coelho, is involved in the negotiations. The crisis came to this point after Portuguese banks-which were among the principal buyers of government debt- decided to stop buying additional governmet debt. This meant the government with low cash reserves had little chance of meeting the 4.9 billion euros in debt repayments in June, after a 4.2 billion euro debt repayment in April. The Portuguese government had preferred a bridge loan from the EU but the EU declined this request, insisting on austerity measures. A recent effort by the Socrates government to get an austerity package was defeated in Parliament, leading to Socrates' resignation. ...

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The Economst cites an IMF June 2012 paper by Arcand, Berkes and Panizza that shows private borrowing and size of bank balance sheets once it reaches 100% of GDP begins to slow growth. A second paper by Cecchei and Enisse Kharroubi at the Bank for International Settlements confirms this showing that at low levels private borrowing and expansion of bank balance sheets increases economc growth, but at high levels exceeding 100% of GDP a large financial system actually hurts economic growth. Andy Haldane of the Bank of England points out the fact that for the century to 1970 bank assets increased by an average of 0.6% a year faster than GDP in 14 large economies, but increased much faster after this with ratio of assets to GDP increasing by about 3 percentage points a year. Bank assets increased from 50% of GDP in the 1960's to about 200% of GDP by 2007, reaching 500% of GDP in Britain, 800% of GDP in Switzerland, and 126% in the U.S. The increase in world trade accentuated this period with trade increasing from 22% of global GDP to 33% in the period 1996-2008, and banking following this trend across borders to developing countries. At the same time excesses caused an imbalance with hyper growth in bank balance sheets through taking on more leverage and banking risks. The Economist sees this process going back in reverse as bank balance sheets shrink in the face of regulation and efforts for financial stability following the 2008 global financial crisis....

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The thinking is that a slight drop in the year to year increase in GDP from 11.4% to 10%, according to both IMF and Goldman Sachs group forecasts, isn't going to do much in reducing China's demand growth for oil. For one thing China's industry is very energy intensive and consumes a lot of energy to produce a give amount of output. Its estimated that it takes about 1% of increase in energy demand to produce 1% rise in GDP. It ranks as the largest consumer of coal and the second largest user of oil. It takes in about 8 million barrels a day of the 84 million barrels a day, that is 9.52%. Even as China's export sector slows down because of lower demand from the industrialized countries, the Chinese government can use its large cash reserves to build roads and bridges and ports and upgrade infrastructure to maintain employment levels. Major refiners margins have swung wildly from $30 in May 2007 from $10 in the last few years. Before the recent boom in refinery margins the margins average $5, and it looks like the boom in refinery building in Saudi Arabia, India and China and the US that resulted from shortage of refinery capacity, will bring margins back to their longterm average. A surge in oil prices that has outpaced the rise in prices of gasoline and refined products is shrinking margins and lowering profits and stock price of refiners like Tesoro and Valero. and upgrade its infrastructure ...

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French president Sarkozy, and German chancellor Merkel, announce the decision to seek treaty changes to make fiscal discipline a critical part of the new EU treaties. They issued an ultimatum to other EU countries to decide within a week whether they wanted to be part of a eurozone under this arrangement. In any case France and Germany will move ahead for a tighter union. Merkel stated- "We need structural changes. It is not possible to do this in the framework of the current treaties." Germany secured France's acceptance for having national budgets submitted for review by a supranational European body and automatic sanctions. France secured Germany's acceptance of a way to override this if automatic sanctions are blocked by a strong majority of members voting to this effect. On the issue of bondholders, of private creditors sharing in losses, France and Germany agreed to limit this to Greece. Merkel stated: "Greece is and will remain an exception," to which Sarkozy added, "the message to investors from across the world is that in Europe we pay back our debts."...

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Tim Lee has predicted the collapse of the Turkish currency Lira for 7 years in his investment newsletter. Like other economists who saw warning signs in Turkey's overdependence on foreign capital to finance credit and growth, Lee found himself ignored and lost clients as the Turkey boom that benefited Mr. Erdogan party continued.  The doubling of tariffs on Turkey's steel has finally focused investors minds on the situation in Turkey. These figures are sobering- about 70% of Turkey's economy is dependent on foreign loans denominated in U.S. dollars, according to the IIF, the Institute of International Finance. The loss of the currency Lira's value by 70% in 2018 means that the dollar denominated loans made by Turkish banks to businesses in Turkey will be harder to pay with revenue made in Lira. Another startling statistic is that American investors own 25% of outstanding Turkey's bonds, and about 50% of publicly traded Turkey stocks. The deterioration of relations with the U.S. is more likely to lead to investors focusing on this aspect of the Turkish situation and pulling back.     ...

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Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF says that as government borrowing around the world surges, interest rates will go up. Governments borrow by selling bonds to investors, and to attract investors the government competes with stock and corporate bond markets for investor's money, leading to rising yields for investors. As the confidence has returned to corporate bond markets this is already happening. From the end of 2008. the yield on the benchmark 10 year Treasury note has increased by one and ahalf percentage points, rising to 3.54% from 2%, the sharpest upward movement in 15 years. In Germany the yield on German 10 year bonds has also risen, rising to 3.57% from 2.93%. Similiarly British bond yields have risen to 3.78% from 3.41%. Congressional Budget Office estimates are that net government debt for the USA will rise to 65% of GDP at the end of fiscal 2010, from 41% at the end of fiscal 2008. In 2009 and 2010 the US government will sell $5 trillion in new debt, according to Citigroup. A decade from now the government's outstanding debt could equal 82% of GDP, or about $17 trillion. Every one point rise in interest rates costs the Treasury $50 billion annually over a few years, and Kenneth Rogoff estimates that this could reach $170 billion annually if the average yield on 10 year Treasury note goes up to 4.7%, as the Congressional Budget Office estimates. This will dampen the effects of stimulus spending. It is a big issue says Rogoff. A year ago under old policy and assumptions before the financial crisis the Congressional Budget Office projected outstanding debt at $5.3 trillion in 10 years. Now the estimate is $17 trillion, which is triple the old number and an increase of $11 trillion. A recovering economy would make these numbers less relevant. But with struggling industries like autos and banks needing more help from the government, and with consumers having to reduce a mountain of debt, a weak economy for a long time and small growth for a decade would make this a story that won't go away. Rogoff says its like what happened to the subprime borrowers, people assuming that the funding is always going to be there. In 2009 and 2010 Citigroup says, the Euro zone countries will sell nearly 1.6 trillion euros or $2.6 trillion in new debt, and Britain will offer 490 billion pounds or $799 billion in new debt. Over the next decade this would slow Europe's recovery and prolong the downturn. Britain faces a bigger problem in the near term as Britain's governmetn debt equals 55% of GDP, and Standard and Poors estimates it could approach 100% by 2013. South America and Eastern Europe will also face the situation of rising rates. Asian countries like China with lower levels of debt are in a better situation, IMF's Blanchard says....

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Where do you place a winner of the Democratic primary in Maine, Graham Plattner, an oyster farmer who dropped out of college at George Washington University, served briefly in the Middle East wars of Bush and Obama, and had PTSD. Is he working class, middle working class or is he from a downwardly mobile professional class considering he has parents who are well educated and father a prominent lawyer in Maine? Plattner easily defeated a 3 term governor of Maine with his average working class demeanor and language. He is for universal health care, (Medicare for All) universal child care, affordable housing, affordable college. Politics in the US has been moving away from the simple divisions before 1950 created by the Industrial Revolution- the workers in factories and the owners of capital allied with the professional middle class. The few owners of capital mostly college educated allied with people from the non college educated workers in factories who are conservative in their values and beliefs and on the other side the college educated professional middle class now downwardly mobile because of the many recessions and high unemployment from frequent financial crises, with college costing $80,000 a year putting them in deep debt. There is today in the WSJ a story of a professional worker who at $194,000 a year salary is not able to payoff $15000 debt which owners of capital have set at 26% interest and is in downward spiral. Some of this comes from large college and other debt. There is says WSJ Analysis $1.25 trillion in credit card debt alone with highest delinquency rates in decades in 2026. Cost of living has only made things worse and some of this happened as Biden poured money into the economy to help people hurt by the pandemic, yet with some short run consequences with demand strong businesses including hotels, restaurants and grocery stores, auto dealers, jacking up their prices by over 20% in 1 year and Biden failing to respond, getting overwhelmed by open borders migrants under Mayorkas and Harris (also hit by a sudden Venezuelan migrant influx). This is the America one has today- a confusing mix. This in reality means Democrats may take issue with Democrats, Republicans take issue with Republicans, and Democrats join with Republicans on issue by issue basis. It might actually be rational than irrational. On cultural issues if the country has gone over its head and moved too fast on some issues that are not for the general public good, people of different backgrounds can come together to get the best path. On economic issues things are never so straightforward, there are unpredictable consequences and the rules of economics are really not so straightforward either.  Providing relief can mean the government shouldering the burden as during the pandemic which it should, yet with caution as businesses can use the excess demand to raise prices and one is back to square one with everybody worse off as happened with Biden. Migrant flows and fears of insecurity in public spaces can lead to a severe public "discomfort that can waylay the best intentions of a Harris or Biden, leading to public "backlash." In fact the title of a recent book is "Whiplash." Current books include Floridan Marco Rubio's "Decade's of Decadence- How our Spoiled Elites Blew America's Inheritance of Liberty, Security and Prosperity." Rubio means it. Its authentic because as Rubio says repeatedly, his parents could make a living in the 1960's working in a factory with decent wages, low cost of living and low cost of college, the arithmetic between salaries and what you needed for decent home in suburbs and sending children to good public schools, then to college, all adding up. The result is that Rubio could go to college and serve in the Florida legislature. Rubio says in 2026, after the elites under Bush and Obama and faulty economic theory shipped all of our factories to China, that the story of his parents and his education would simply be impossible. This is what he told people in India on his first visit last week. His parents were Cuban immigrants, yet he identifies with Spain and with western civilization, a devout Roman Catholic. Rubio is a Republican, and is in large contrast with Alejandro Mayorkas, also from Cuba, and Biden's Head of Homeland Security. This is the mix of people and representatives in Congress,  business people, small business owners, professionals, that we have today in 2026 in the US. Plattner and Rubio, one a Democrat and one a Republican- both have something in common. Plattner also has general disdain for "the corporate interests, the billionaires, the Washington DC elites, and the establishment politicians."  The winds are blowing in the direction of getting things right- remembering that Eisenhower continued the work of the Kennedy and LBJ administrations (Eisenhower built the Interstate Highway System for instance, and LBJ gave America Social Security and Medicare). Before that Franklin Roosevelt a Democrat built on the work of his uncle Republican Theodore Roosevelt (TR gave America the idea of good governance and built the US Navy, FDR fought the Depression and stabilized a faltering economy after mistakes made by Republican Herbert Hoover could have happened even if Hoover was a Democrat. FDR was himself from a wealthy New York family and when he first met fellow New Yorker Frances Perkins before his struggle with polio, a haughty New York gentleman. That was before Frances Perkins as FDR's Labor Secretary joined forces with Roosevelt to give New York a modernized administration governance structure by 1940 that was applied to all 51 states after 1950. It allied labor with capital with fairness for all, and was the first such modern structure of this size the world had ever seen, which was the fundamental strength of the United States of America. It was imitated in Asia, first in the Shanghai region then China, and first in the Ahmedabad region and now India. The US is faced with the challenge of recreating and rebuilding this today, as first China, then India remind America of its roots which they have followed in their own style and culture.  First good governance, then good institutional structures, alligning labor and capital with fairness for all, strong affordable + accessible educational and healthcare systems, and investments of capital and labor for infrastructure + industrial development. ...

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The situation in Ireland for the tax paying public is similiar to the situation in the US, as Peter Coy points out. Ireland has guaranteed the debts of its banks, but in doing so it has assumed a huge burden. The costs relative to Ireland's small economy for a single bank, the Anglo Irish Bank, would amount to $3 trillion if this was done on a comparable basis in the US, says Coy. In the US 1 in 5 homeowners are under water, and the Bush and Obama plans have done little to make principal reductions; the most they have achieved say experts is reduce the interest. The Foreclosure Prevention Working Group, an organization of states' attorneys general, says the large majority of mortgage modifications raised and not reduced the amount owed by homeowners. As Carmen Reinhart points out, if the government assumes private debt, it should do so at a realistic price, and this means haircuts. So far this has not happened. In the case of AIG, the government assumed all the debts, fully insuring AIG bondholders from losses. If the government is going to take up the problem of the homeowners under water, private debt holders are going to have to take haircuts. Bad lending would be encouraged if creditors know that they will be protected in the future. Policymakers may have waited too long because its equally irresponsible to gurantee payment of debts 100% as it is to do what has happened so far, which was to say the principal reductions would encourage borrowers to borrow recklessly. ...