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The boost to investor perceptions for India with Modi's election, and to Indonesia with Widodo's election are major changes in the second half of 2014. The first half saw the dented confidence in Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey and South Africa. To this can be added Russia with Putin's response in Ukraine and western sanctions. China with Jinping's response to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong for restoration of the pledge of free elections by 2017, appears to be losing investor confidence, especially with investors seeing this as adopting the Putin Way. This is happening with a gradual movement towards restoration of trade relations with Iran.

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The inventor of the white LED bulb is the son of a Japanese father and an American mother. He invented the LED bulb by doing research in a small company which required courage to get the research funded for IGaN. Only a few researchers were following this route less than 1%, Nakamura had the confidence in himself, believed in himself to take this route that led to the white LED bulb. The more he was turned down the angrier he became and had it approved by the founder of the company. In 1992 he made the first white LED bulb. Why is this important. It shows what we can do when we pursue what our mind tells us and what comes from inside. Nakamura had to work very hard to do this. In a small company he says he had to do everything himself. So thats it the LED bulb. Amazing and what an achievement for climate change action. California uses 35% of its electricity for lighting alone. White LED cuts this in half. ...

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This report in NYT shows the movement of Mexicans who migrated to the US in the 1970's in an earlier migration and the problems they faced seeking a better life in America on the east and west coastal cities. In 1971 Ruperto and Eustacia Enriquez migrate from Puebla, Mexico to New York. They make two migrations within the US after a mugging incident in Brooklyn in 1980. First to Santa Ana, California where they find life difficult with gang crime in neighborhoods, and move to an affluent suburb in the east side of Seattle. Their son Daniel gets a Bachelors degree in philosophy from the University of Washington. In 1996 he returns to New York to study for a Masters degree in Latin American Studies at New York University.  After 25 years in New York and taking up a jobs two financial firms he reflects a strivers mentality, always looking for self-improvement. He helps his younger sister with an application to win a Fullbright scholarship in Germany. Another sister works in Washington as a business analyst. He helped a brother who became a school teacher in New York public schools. Daniel found an apartment in Park Slope, Brooklyn and by 2013 joined another financial firm in its global investment research group coordinating publications.  The story reflects some of the growing pains of Mexican Americans who migrated to America in the 1970's in the earlier migrations. In 2022 Daniel Enriquez 48 years was shot on the subway while going for Sunday Brunch, 25 years after returning to New York City. Crime was once again up in the city after the pandemic. 950 crime offenses happened in the subway system for the year till May the same as in 2019. Subway ridership was 40% lower in May this year.   ...

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What will the E-Book do to bookstoreslike Barnes & Noble? This is a question that investors like Burkle, who owns 20% of Barnes & Noble, and Mr. Riggio who owns 31%, are facing. Apple's IPad is expected to sell 5.5 million units in 2010, Amazon's Kindle 3 million, and Barnes and Noble's Nook 1 million units. Barnes & Noble invested early on in a handheld device called the Rocket eBook reader with its investment in NuvoMedia in 1998. But pulled out of the eBook business in 2003. The problem at the time was the lack of enough titles to arouse reader interest and the high prices-$20 per eBook vs $25 for a hardbook. This move proved costly when Amazon launched its Kindle in 2007. Amazon now has 70-80% of the eBook buisness, with Sony, Kobo, and Barnes and Noble competing for the remaining share. Riggio bought the first store for Barnes & Noble on New York's Fifth Avenue in 1971. He promoted superstores with huge selections (over 100,000 titles) and built up a chain of 719 stores in ensuing decades. Now he faces a new reality in the arithmetic of eBooks which could remake this business. Apple set a new method for pricing eBooks that affects booksellers. Publishers and Apple set up a model that gives the publisher 70% of the eBook digital price. EBook sellers act as agents in this approach, and they get 30%. Best sellers sell for $9.99 but other books can be $12.99 or $14.99. Now the digital bookseller gets 30% of $12.99. And as it hasn't paid anything its more advantageous and profitable. This works for publishers and digital booksellers but Barnes and Noble was used to getting much more than $3.90 when it sold a $25 hardcover book. If eBook sales climb to become a quarter or more of total book sales by 2012 then it will lead to a decline in sales revenues for Barnes & Noble. With eBooks costing half of the hardcover prices in brick and mortar retailers the trend is irreversible. To address this trend Barnes & Noble has hired a digital expert Mr Lynch as CEO, and the strategy is to combine the retail presence and customer physical contact in brick-and-mortar stores with eBook retailing, to come up with an answer to this tidal wave of change in book retailing. ...

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Consumer Reports is published by nonprofit advocacy group with 640 employees. It is based in Yonkers, New York, and was founded in 1936. It takes no advertising and answers only to buyers of the magazine and to consumers. Its labs based in Yonkers test a whole range of products and Consumer Reports does not hesitate to put a "Don't Buy" rating on products. In June it pointed out the defect in the Apple iphone that made it lose reception when the left corner was touched by a user. It tested the Lexus 460 a few months ago, and when it found that it was a rollover risk, Consumer Reports gave it a "Don't Buy: Safety Risk" rating. The magazine has come up with new contraptions that test different products. In the 50's it created a smoking machine that accumulated what was left of a smoker's inhalations in a container device. And it was credited by the Surgeon General's Report in 1964 warning of the dangers of smoking, as having done some of the serious research on the subject of smoking dangers. The magazine suffered a loss in 2001 of $9.4 million, but has since recovered under the leadership of Guest, who had earlier served as chairman. Guest moved the testing to more expensive products like Lexus cars and made another important decision. He expanded testing so that when it came to laptops, cell phones and flat screen TV's (which were becoming rapidly popular in the market), the testing would be ongoing. Guest moved announcements and postings of new product results to the internet and online subscriptions have tripled in the last 7 years. As a result the company has been profitable since 2003. Other decisions have been to add user opinions and comments, buying Consumerist.com which puts up reader opinions, and to attract younger readers. And though initially feared by scientists at Consumer Reports, who preferred to avoid user opinions and stick with the scientific facts, the moves have not affected its credibility. About 7 million subscribers subscribe to Consumer Reports, and about half of these subscribers pay $26 a year for access to its website, ConsumerReports.org. This makes it one of the handful of information publications that have paid digital subscribers, including the Wall Street Journal Online, which has only a fraction of the subscribers of Consumer Reports....

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Father Hesburgh became president of Notre Dame in 1952, at the age of 35, when Notre Dame was a small university known for football and theological studies. He greatly increased the size of the university, hiring new faculty, increasing the endowment fund from $9 million to $350 million, and changed polcies so that women were admitted in 1972. The endowment fund is now $9 billion. Father Hesburgh played a prominent role in the U.S. and was close to presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy, Reagan, Carter and Clinton. By the time he retired in 1986 after 35 years as president of Notre Dame, he was considered the most effective university president in the country, and the most influential priest in the U.S. He fought for civil rights, for peaceful protest on campus, and brought lay control through a secular board to run Notre Dame. In all these issues he stood up for his progressive views when faced by opposition from the Vatican and the U.S. government. Following the Second Vatican Council of the mid 1960's, Father Hesburgh initiated greater involvement of lay Catholics in the Mass and practices of the Church. At a meeting in Land O'Lakes, Wisconsin, 1967, a group of Catholic educators led by Hesburgh put forward the position that the pursuit of truth should be the ultimate aim of Catholic higher education in the U.S., not religious indoctrination. In this way Father Hesburgh created a new level of credibility and respect for Catholic based education in the U.S. Ironically Father Hesburgh was not a big football fan and refused to pose for a picture of him with a football, insisting that collegiate sports not influence higher education. His passion from his early years was to be a chaplain in the U.S. Navy. In fact he had to be dissuaded from going to the Navy as a chaplain in 1943, to stay on campus at Notre Dame to train naval officers during the war. Hesburgh was born in Syracuse in 1917 to an executive at Pittsburgh Plate Glass Company, and studied at the seminary on Notre Dame campus and in Rome for advanced degrees in philosophy and theology. He died in 2015 at the age of 97, having placed a large imprint on the shape of American higher education in the twentieth century. ...

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The WSJ's Iliff and Luhnow's interview with Emilio Lozoya, CEO of Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX). Lozoya says about the new oil law that allows foreign companies to compete with Pemex, as something that should have happened decades ago. President Calderon of the PAN party pushed hard for this, but failed to get the support of the PRI during his term in office 2006-2012. It made sense for Mexico because President Cardozo (1997-2002) of Brazil already set a successful example by doing this for Brazil's state oil company, Petrobras. The main point is that competition is good for Pemex, and good for Mexico and Mexicans, and Lozoya emphasizes this. Under the law Pemex can keep oil fields it already has and have the first pick in future fields. Pemex is expected to partner in oil field exploration in deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico where it needs the technologies of foreign oil companies. Under the new rules Pemex will have 2 years in which to make the transition to a well managed business enterprise. A new tax code works to increase nonoil tax revenues, so that Mexico does not depend on Pemex profits for one third of its budget. It also gives Pemex autonomy and control over its budget, and lowers its tax burden to international levels. This frees up badly needed resources for investment opportunties to increase Mexico's growth rate. Lozoya says the investment budget could be increased from $25 billion to about $30-$35 billion as a result. He gives a list of badly needed projects not taken up by Pemex for lack of funds- developing natural gas from Mexico's large reserves where Mexico imports its natural gas from Texas increasing the cost of manufacturing, building pipelines where Mexico transports fuel by truck which is 15 times more costly, making its own fertilizer and petrochemicals instead of importing it in a country where 60% of farmland is not fertilized. There is so much to be done that Lozoya realizes his main challenge will be execution. Enormous responsibility rests on Lozoya's shoulders to get the execution right. Pemex has 160,000 employees and crude oil sales of $130 billion in 2012. He has a Masters degree in economic development from Harvard and managed investment funds in New York before this position. Cardozo also picked an investment banking professional for the job of recharting the course of Petrobras and attracting foreign investment....

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The large increase in auto sales in 2013 to 15.6 million follows a strong rebound in the U.S. market. The gains in sales over 2009 at the peak of the financial crisis, shows Chrysler at 93% gain in sales over 2009, VW at 92%, Nissan 62% and Ford 54%, according to Autodata. Smaller gains of 33% and 26% for Honda and Toyota. Chrysler's sales were 1.8 million in 2013- the company which depended on policymakers in the Obama administration for survival showed remarkable gains under Fiat's CEO Marchionne. VW returning to the market and stumbling repeatedly in the previous ten years, made serious gains with Jetta and Passat models designed and priced for the U.S. market. VW achieved sales of 0.6 million in 2013. Ford sales were 2.5 million, Nissan 1.2 million, Honda 1.5 million and Toyota 2.2 million for 2013. GM sales 2.8 million increasing by 35% in 2013 over 2009. The automobile story may be the biggest story in the U.S. manufacturing recovery. It also may have made a difference in the election campaign of 2012- with winning campaign points in key midwestern states such as Michigan and Ohio for the Obama administration's backing of a renewed auto industry around fuel efficiency improvements, new management, and new relationship with unions. In the period 1998-2007 average sales were 16 million in the U.S. market, with a nosedive to 10.4 million vehicles in 2009, and a rebound to 15.6 million in 2013, according to Autodata. Under previous union contracts with higher wages and pension costs, and a flurry of price incentives, car makers needed higher volume to make profits. Changes since the bankruptcy of 2 automakers include bringing in management from outside the auto industry- Marchionne at Chrysler, Whittaker and Akerson at GM came from other fields (telecom, finance) bringing new perspectives. Mulally at Ford was from Boeing commercial aerospace. Other changes were lower wages and pension costs with renegotiated contracts and relationships with unions, discipline to lower incentives, younger managers moved up and brought in from outside including Reuss and Barra at GM, Farley at Ford, lower sales to fleets, improved fuel efficiency for SUV's and pickups to change the cost of operating, a mix shifted to smaller and midsized cars, improved quality, and changing the buyer perception of American brands....

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Malaysia's debt to GDP ratio increased to 242% in mid-2012 from 192% in 2008 according to McKinsey. As export growth has slowed the Malaysian government is relying on credit expansion to consumers and large capital projects such as the planned subway project in Kuala Lumpur to sustain growth. Similiar credit expansion is seen in other Asian countries- Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong. The period 2008 to 2013 has seen a rapid acceleration in credit expansion in these countries and especially in China. China's debt to GDP ratio increased to 183% in mid 2012 from 153% in 2008, according to McKinsey. Nomura Holding's economist Zhiwei Zhang, and other economists say it is above 200% when government data on "shadow banking" lending institutions such as trust companies is included. IMF economist Giovanni Dell'Ariccia has studied of debt expansion and credit booms since the 1970's. He and other economists at the IMF have found that credit booms- the rapid increase in credit to GDP ratios- end up in crises one third of the time, result in below par growth in another third of the time, and only in one third of the time does growth continue at the high pace. Alex Frangos talks to government officials in Kuala Lumpur who do not take seriously the high vacancy rate for office buildings in the capital of about 20% even as new office towers are being built. Bob Davis gives the example of government owned Hunan Expressway company in China which has a huge road building program and doubled its 2009 debt levels. Another state owned company in shipping China Cosco Holdings increased total debt from 85 billion yuan in 2009 to 123 billion yuan in 2012. As export growth slowed in China in 2009 credit expansion is driving growth. The normal restraints of the market are absent in China's state owned companies. Charlene Chu, senior director of Fitch Ratings Inc in Beijing, says 2012 demonstrated that the Chinese government cannot slow credit growth without risking a decline in growth. China's GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2013 slowed to 7.7% from 7.9% in the 4th quarter of 2012. This poses a serious problem for China. China has never experienced the kinds of problems seen in Asia after the 1997 banking crisis, in the eurozone today, and in the U.S. following the financial crisis of 2008, making government officials prone to complacency about the risks....

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John Taylor looks one step ahead of the March 2012 Greece bailout and sets up the most plausible scenario for the future. He says the risks of contagion were always exaggerated from the beginning- a planned default or restructuring of debt such as happened in Argentina in 2001, does not have the contagion risks associated with a chaotic and unplanned default as in Russia in 1998. Predicability in policy makes a huge difference, says Taylor. The European banks which stood to lose from writedowns exaggerated the fears of contagion- a process that always occurs for people who are adversely affected by writedowns- resulting in top officials in the European Union delaying the unavoidable serious restructuring. It was not until Chancellor Merkel handed Charles Dallara, who negotiated for the European banks, a note stating a demand for 50% bondholder writedown, on October 27, 2011, at EU headquarters in Brussels, did any serious writedown of debt begin. Merkel told Dallara: "this is my last offer." The July 2011 summit by contrast had only a 10% bondholder writedown in the agreement, when insolvency not illiquidity was the real issue. Walker Forelle and Meichtry, give a detailed account of what happened in the Wall Street Journal, Dec. 30, 2011. The important thing for Greece, says Taylor, is for what the IMF calls "growth enhancing structural reforms" - greater reliance on private markets, incentives, rule of law. He says this bailout won't work because IMF growth forecasts do not reflect the rapid shrinking of the Greek economy. Antonis Samaras, leader of the major opposition party, is in favor of pro-growth measures and has stated his desire to change the agreement. The 130 billion euro bailout provides 90 billion euros for recapitalizing Greece's banks, and financing the budget. This puts Greece in a situation where the political leaders win voter support by discarding the conditions from the Northern EU nations and come with a plan that is better suited for Greece. The EU in this scenario would cut off further bailout funds to Greece. Taylor sees this as the better outcome for Greece than the current situation, which leaves Greece no hope for growth, and also for the EU by getting out of bailouts that have little prospect of working. It would be difficult but doable for Greece says Taylor, because interest payments would be low and Greek banks would be recapitalized after the current March 2012 bailout. ...

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Important to distinguish in GNP, GDP and GDP per capita. The official rate of 10-11% growth is questioned by Thurow by noting that 70% of China in the rural area is seeing slow growth and if the urban economy has to grow at 33 % if the whole of China is to grow by 11%. He also brings up electricity consumption historicaly growing much faster than the growth rate of GNP or GDP. At breakneck growth rates gorwth has still been 60% of the gorwth in electricity consumption because some of it is wasted or is not used productively.He does not give his electricity consumption growth for China numbers, but we can extrapolate from the 6% growth in China analogous to Japanese growth rates in the 1970's that he comes up with, to see that electricity growth rates he assumes in his math are 10% a year in China. That is based on 6% growth he gives for China constituting 60% of the growth in electricity consumption for China. Given the validity of this math China and India are growing at much slower rates than official math states. This also means productivity of capital remains a major issue and does not simply go away when seeing the countries as a whole not just coastal and other well developed regions of India and China. So the message that is being projected about Chinese growth may be misleading as urbanization in China will still have to proceed for many decades for the growth to even out geographically. Another fact that immigration has been a source of additional people for the USA and so a significant population increase will be seen in the US in the next few decades even as China's population declines, supporting much larger economic activity in the USA. Europe also is seeing no increase in population. Europe's per capita income fell from 85% of that of the US in 1990, to 66% in 2007 according to the IMF statistics quoted here. Validation of these numbers would provide a different assessment of overenthusiasm for the kind of haphazard growth which also wastes resources and sacrifices the environment and shortchanges health, education and other goals, and instead promotes a different view that constantly looks for better ways of meeting the difficult challenges facing China and India. With these...

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The dollars situation may not be as bad as it looks. There are signs that the dollar is strengthening against the British pound and the Australian dollar and other important currencies. And the weaker dollar is already working to reduce imbalances in America's trade deficit. There are two aspects of the dollar's role, one is as a means of international exchange and the other as a store of value. For the first reserves of any country need to be highly convertible and America offers highly liquid markets and this has not changed. As a store of value the dollar has lost some of it value especially against the euro. But the reason that the dollar should not see a sudden drop in value is because the largest holders of dollar reserves China with $1.4 trillion and Japan with $1 trillion would stand to lose by shifting out of dollars significantly at atime when the dollar was so undervalued besides hurting their export markets if it affected the US economy. And though the euro looks good in the short term, over the longer term Europe's aging societies may see lower growth and the future may look different once the USA has corrected some of it imbalances which is precisely what the weaker dollar accomplishes as the US exports start humming. Seen against the historical background the USA has periodically gone through this situation with dollar weakness in 1977-79, 1985-88, 1993-95. In 1985 the dollar went to 81 Japanese yen and there was concern about its reserve currency status at the time. However the dollar has weathered these storms. And there is always the option for a country to peg its currency not to one currency alone but to a combination of the dollar and the euro. This was the case before 1914 when 3 currencies the British Pound, the French Franc and the German Mark were used. In the post 1918 environment the dollar replaced the German mark alongside the Pound and the Franc. The Persian Gulf countries have this option so they can use their own monetary policy to control inflation by pegging not just to the dollar but to a basket of currencies as Kuwait has done. See the link to the Persian Gulf countries handling of this currency issue in WSJ, November 20th and Nov 1, 2007....

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Nickel cadmium batteries - this year 2008 the European Union is banning the sale of all nickel cadmium batteries. Question is why is the US not banning them. And why are companies like Energizer, Duracell, P&G, Mattel, Toys R Us and Walmart still buying them? Why is Panasonic making them? A toy costs $1.50 less to make using nickel cadmium batteries. Are parents aware of what it does to workers making them? Are plants safe in developing countries especially in corruption prone coercive environments like the one in factories in China? Some of the owners of such factories are in Hong Kong, Hong Kong based companies, are they aware enough of the risks and the ethics of doing is? This story is of an engineer who was exposed to factory conditions in a company GP that was supposed to be a good company to work for, and few knew about the effects of cadmium in the year 1995 when she joined. The Panasonic factory is in Wuxi which is not in some remote part of China. And note this about 10% of China's arable land is contaminated with heavy metals such as cadmium according to China's own State Environmental Protection Agency, and the metals are entering China's food supply. 12 studies have shown unsafe level of cadmium in fruits and vegetables. Is this a necessary price of industrialization or is it possible to find a way thats better- a challenge for countries like India. Can there be better protection of workers and still have industrialization? Wouldn't it make sense that a motivated well treated work force will perform better in better working conditions. Aren't there costs involved for workers and owners of such plants. Owners also bear costs, bad press, medical payments, workers leave and good workers are hard to find in the wave of bad publicity and health risks, customers in the west refuse to buy the product, the company's brand name is tarnished forever, as would happen for GP in this case. The coercive patterns of using police to suppress publicity for a Hong Kong Company shows owners in Hong Kong have the same disregard for worker rights, even when living in an area that one hears talk about democratic rights. See the link to chemical spills contaminating a river in China also by a Hong Kong based company. ...

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Now in March 2008 it appears that defaults on construction loans by smaller regional and local banks to single family home builders is spreading across the nation to the point where it may bring the credit squeeze for home, auto and credit card loans to local communities in smaller towns across America. This will be further slowdown not just housing but consumption at the local Walmart and retail stores. Loans to single family home builders went down from a peak about 2 years ago of $350 billion to about $250 billion in 2007. now the delinquencies on these loans is 8% in the 4th quarter 2007 according to Foresight Analytics. Its much higher at 14% in states like Ohio and Michigan. The Atlanta afffiliate of National Home Builders Association says that 20% of these builders are late in payments in that area. In states like Florida, Arizona and Arkansas, and Minnesota the delinquencies is at 10%. Note that the highly reputed ones like the Levitt and Sons that built Levittown in the post war period are also taking bankruptcy as banks are calling in their loans to be paid in full when they see builders losing money. What first appeared as signs of trouble in the Cleveland area is now spreading across the nation. Mr Whitlatch who studied planning at the University of Pennsylvania and went into building homes in the Clevelad area since 1969 is one of the home builders who is declaring bankruptcy after 9 million dollars in debt and using up $2 million of his own money and now selling off his family home. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been authorized by the Bush Administration to put $200 billion into the mortgage market to keep things from getting worse in the housing market but much of the damage is already underway. How else will this affect local economies the local banks will be in trouble. Analysts estimate that about 150 local smaller and regional banks will go under in the next 3 years. Compared to this about 900 local banks went under in the S&L crisis over 5 years. It will put new stress on the local communities and their economy in coming months and years as the economic crisis goes from big cities to smaller towns and communities throughout America. ...

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For years Peter Bernstein has watched the US markets, from the postwar recession of 1958 till today. He is now 89 years old. He sees 2 culprits one is oversecuritization and the second is years of overborrowing by financial institutions and consumers alike. He rules out a V shaped business cycle. he sees an L shaped business cycle or a a flat U. It would be a flat U because it will take a long time for the memory to recover from the excesses of recent years and the consequences. He remembers the early years after World War II, it took a very long time to get the depression out of business and banking decisions. And he says one of the things that helped people take risks was the feeling that the central bank had got things right and knew what it was doing but he says the Fed too now is going to feel what it should do now is less clear. So the feeling going forward will be to be very careful. He thinks this will take a long time to clear up, much longer than people think. Not 2009, he is sure they are wrong, there has to be a respite along the way is how he puts it. He says until credit is going up instead of down you can't have growth. And he thinks housing has to be a part of this. And then there is the uncertainty. What if, what if China goes into a recession? His point that " nothing can go in one direction forever." And China has been growing like this for twenty years since the 1990's. It just does'nt go on forever. and there has to be a respite. Again here him speak: first he goes to housing, he says somehow housing has to flatten out. Then he shifts to say "we have to underpin the consumer" and with that he shifts to saying this is why its different, and to saying this is why its like nothing we have had before. And then he turns to investment, saying its investment that made the V at the bottom of the cycle but he doesn't see the consumer in the USA coming up with a positive till he has worked out the excesses of overspending. Exports or consumer overseas? He thinks they maybe too infected by us to do it. Though Asian growth will help....

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The director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Cai Fang predicts that by 2009 there would be a widespread shortage of workers, pushing up industrial wages. Figures from the UN Population Division show that China's working age population will decline in the years ahead. There are two things here that matter. The millions of people in a socalled surplus labor force that can be tapped so that industry can hire more people expand and grow without wage inflation, and second the working age population 20-29, younger people being preferred by employers for the long hours, single people who can stay in dorms and can be mobile to move near factories and do not have the restrictions of married people with children. The one child policy has limited the growth of the working age population. After rising by 1.3% a year according to the UN Population Division during the decade to 2005, the population of working age is expected to increase at an annual rate of 0.7% until 2015, and then shrink by 0.1% ayear until 2025. The surplus labor pool figures estimates vary from 150 million people to 200 million people, but the Economist estimates the true figure to be much smaller because government figures for the rural labor force include millios of migrants already in the cities and others working in rural industry not farming. The population of workers in ages 20-29 fell from 233 million in 1990 to 165 million in 2005. Because of this shrinking of supply of eligible labor especially considering the preference of textile and electronics firms to hire young women because they complain less and put up with long hours and for single men preferred by construction firms, Cai Fang believes that this preferred or eligible labor pool is shrinking to the point where it will be a problem in the years ahead. This will have the impact of shrinking the growth rate to around 7% sometime after 2009. Problems that remained under cover because of the Olympics will also become evident as 2008 winds down. Some experts argue that there are other factors that will contine to sustain the pool of available workers, but its this pool of preferred available workers that will be in short supply according to Cai Fang. ...

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WSJ's reporters Meichtry, L, Pokharel, and Soon look at the extraordinary rise of Gautam Adani through his efforts to develop reclaimed land at Mundra port in the state of Gujarat. Adani who started with a small family owned plastics maker in Ahmedabad developed Mundra port around 2001 with the help of the Modi administration. Modi saw the electricity shortages in Gujarat as an opportunity to tackle India's chronic electricity shortages. Adani's early development of a deep water port at Mundra offered both Modi and Adani the opportunity to tackle the electricity shortages by bringing coal in large ships to Mundra in the way that China was already doing by 2005 in its own efforts at industrialization. So deeply immersed was India under the Congress Raj of licenses and closed economy that India's established business failed to see what China was doing to break into the ranks of industrialized nations. India's first prime minister Nehru had build a command economy where not much happened without government licenses and approval often riddled unwittingly with corruption. Modi needed someone outside the established companies operating under the Congress Raj command economy and with a vision of an India with abundant electricity to take the risks Chinese companies were taking to build an entirely new economy. By 2005 Guangzhou was importing coal with large ships from Indonesia and Australia. State owned companies moved slowly and would take years to develop the port capacity. Using China's example Modi pushed ahead with Adani on a rapid time delivery making Mundra a Special economic Zone and helping to connect Indian Railways to the port of Mundra for coal deliveries. Adani Enterprises built the thermal power plants near Mundra and build electricity transmission lines on a rapid mission mode giving Gujarat abundant electricity supplies and giving Gujarat state in northwestern India a great leap forward in the way China was already doing right in front of everyone's eyes by 2005 with world class ports built at Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzen, Hong Kong and logistics connections set with the help of Maersk.  Maersk is now doing the same for modern logistics in India in collaboration with the Modi administration.  Modi and the younger generation of aspirational youth in India see a New India that can break into the ranks of the largest industrialized nations with world class infrastructure in the way China has done, and use new technologies with innovation that will speed up the process in a way that the world has never seen. A quick look at Mundra Port in Wikipedia shows the timeline, It starts in 1998 when Adani Port Ltd was setup and Mundra port work began, 2002 the port integrated with Indian Railways, 2003 when it was made a Special Economic Zone by the Modi government in Gujarat, 2007 when IPO of 40 million shares at price band of around Rs 400 was done.  The Biden administration and the Trump administration support India's efforts to build a new modern economy with a rapid shift to renewable energy. As India is building the ports and logistics with the help of Maersk and other companies in the European Union, president Biden is working with prime minister Modi to build a new supply chain that removes the overconcentration of manufacturing and supply chain logistics in China. This means new ports with the latest technologies in India to handle shipment to the US and the EU. Jake Sullivan set out the goals for president Biden to accomplish this task in meetings with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval this week on iCERT. President Biden and Republicans, Germany and the EU, see India as a critical part of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies, and the new supply chain. For the Adani Group the IPO pause offers an opportunity to do what Nirmala Sitharman has done in the Indian Budget this week- build a stable growth path ahead for the long term in line with India's Amrit Kal the next 25 years to centenary of freedom in 2047. Nirmala Sitharaman set a goal of rapid capital spending and investment increasing capital spending in 2023 by 33% in 2023 over 2022, yet maintaining a stable fiscal path by keeping the deficit below 6%. ...

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One view of a CEO of a high grade Real Estate Investment Trust on the spreading subprime mortgage crisis. He has perspective because he's been through 3 such crises. The last one in 1990-91 referring to the savings and loan crisis.A $7 trillion economy then needed the $300 billion Resolution Trust Corporation. Now we have a $11 trillion economy, he estimates $2 trillion in capitalization has been lost already. He sees this as messier because of the very reason that was cited in defence of taking higher risks with mortgages, that the risk now was all across the financial system as these mortgage securities were packaged and sold between financial organizations throughout the financial system. Its now messier to fix as it can't be fixed by focusing on one area as its spread throughout. Note that the German government intervened more aggressively than the US Government, in supporting a bank, Deutsche Industriebank with a $4.8 billion bailout.

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Sanders wins in New Hampshire Democratic primary election with 60% of the votes, to Clinton's 34%. Voter turnout was record breaking in the Democratic primary. Women voted for Sanders 55% to 44% for Clinton. In the Republican primary Trump won 35% of the vote to Kasich's 16%, followed by Cruz, Rubio, and Jeb Bush. The Republican primary continues to show a fragmented vote with many candidates.

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With 80% of China's pork supples coming from small farms in China's rural areas, the prices of pork will continue to be volatile. This is not likely to change soon. Pork prices are a significant part of the food price component in the price index.