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The Obama administration's proposed budget for fiscal 2013- for the year beginning Oct. 1, 2012- shows the budget deficit for the year at over $1 trillion. It shows new revenue of $1.7 trillion over 10 years mostly from ending the Bush period tax cuts on families earning more than $250,000 a year, restoring the estate tax to the 2009 level and limiting subsidies for oil and gas companies. It proposes raising the tax rate on dividends from 15% to as much as 39.6%, for households earning more than $250,000 a year. This measure is expected to generate $206 billion over 10 years. The budget also offers "principles" for future tax reform by proposing the Buffett rule replace the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). The AMT was not indexed for inflation so it has the weakness of putting more middle class taxpayers into AMT, leading to temporary solutions by Congress. The Buffett rule would have people earning more than $1 million pay a tax rate of at least 30%. Many wealthy Americans like Mitt Romney paid lower taxes using deductions to lower tax rates- Romney's tax disclosures show he paid effective tax rate of 14%. The White House says the budget will reduce the deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years through the new taxes, and small changes to Medicare and Medicaid and other spending cuts. This is in addition to the $1 trillion in spending cuts agreed to in a deficit reduction agreement in 2011 between Democrats and Republicans in Congress. The budget proposal proposes investment in education and transportation projects of $137 billion, and continuing through Dec. 2012, a tax break for businesses to increase investment. It includes mandatory spending of $2.7 billion for new community college programs, $6 billion to modernize schools, and $1.8 billion to make homes more energy efficient. It also increases the resources of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC (two agencies overseeing the banks), $26 million for a new Interagency Trade Enforcement Center to counter unfair trade practices, and cuts U.S. postal delivery to 5 days a week. The result is a program designed to be balanced in terms of economic fairness, making modest investments in the future for education and energy, continuing policies to stimulate growth, and extending the date for bringing the deficit under control to 2018 instead of 2014 as planned earlier....

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Susie Wiles is a Florida native where she gained most of her experience running Republican campaigns from Bush/Qualyle, Romney, more recently Scott, De Santis and Trump. She also worked for lobbying firm Mercury, was an assistant to Congressman Jack Kemp. She has learned to brush away some of the boorish traits and rhetoric of the former president, says Politico.  As DJT's campaign manager of Florida in 2016 she told the Tampa Bay Times why-  "I don’t want this to continue. I think it seriously will damage our republic and who among that group can really have the fortitude to shift what I’ve seen happening over all these years?” "I will tell you this: The Donald Trump that I have come to know does not behave that way, and the lens that I look at him through, I don’t see any of that. I see strengths, I see smarts, I see a work ethic that is unparalleled,” she told the Tampa Bay Times in 2016. “I blanch sometimes. But, again, it’s not the Donald Trump that I have come to know.” During 2016 and in 2024 her disciplined attitude, humility, trying to be self effacing and focused have helped bring discipline out of the chaos in DJT's campaigns. She also has unique ability to get through at critical moments to restrain DJT from impulsive moments that create political liabilities.   ...

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The BBC looks at the conflicting agendas when it comes to China of Rubio at State and Tulsi Gabbard at Intelligence. Lighthizer is the positive in correcting the trade imbalance with China because he served as US Trade Representative in the first DJT term and has experience going back to negotiating with Japan under Reagan as Deputy Trade Representative.  Controversial are the appointment of a Fox news person Hegeth as Defense Secretary, as he has no experience running an agency, and this one employs 3 million people. Gaetz as Attorney General is being questioned by many Republicans, and in the Senate by Cornyn (R). On spending the Office of Government Efficiency is not a department and Vivek Ramaswamy age 39 years lacks experience in administration, cost cutting. Elon Musk has cut costs at Tesla and Twitter but has no experience handling budgets of agencies. Trump has promised more spending. The cost cuts would be the opposite of what he promised if it cuts essential programs not for efficiency but for viewpoint.   ...

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Refugees in Germany are 3.48 million in 2024 at 4 percent of the population, government data shows. This is 60,000 more than in 2023. One third of them are from Ukraine and many of them seek a return to their home country. Clara Bunger a member of the German parliament requested the information from the government. Bunger says- "It's in clear contradiction to the misleading portrayal of an alleged 'national emergency. Such scaremongering deliberately distracts from actual social problems and uses fear to make refugees a scapegoat." This distraction from the problems of cost of living is why immigration hurts workers and families, why PM Mette Frederiksen, Denmark, PM Michel Barnier, France, US president Biden/Harris who negotiated the legislation with Republicans in Congress to close the Border are taking this important step to refocus on the future of America and Europe, and the world at large. ...

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Electric cars are seen as not affordable for ordinary Americans facing a cost of living crisis. Sales for electric cars lag behind milestones set by California. Only 7% of American cars are electric. GM is pushing for scuttling of the California ban on gas powered cars in 2035. The US Senate is set to vote next week to revoke California's emissions waiver. About 35 Democrat members of Congress support Republicans in this effort to scrap California's ban on gas powered cars in 2035. Zero emissions vehicles make up 20% of sales in California far behind the goal set of 35%. Enthusiasm for electric cars is waning after the lack of technological advances in cutting cost. The lack of rare earth minerals such as dyspromium for electric magnets that is 94% controlled by China means less of it can be imported into the US. China has invented refining technologies to convert the mining materials into the rare earth mineral giving it a monopoly as shown in the WSJ. ...

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A new WSJ/NBC poll shows Trump and Clinton with high disapproval ratings with all registered voters. Clinton's and Trump's disapproval ratings are higher now after increasing negative coverage in the media. Trump has a 65 percent negative rating and Clinton a 56 percent negative rating with all registered voters. Among Republican voters Cruz has a gap of 15 percentage points between him and Trump for negative ratings- Cruz at 27 percent and Trump at a high of 42 percent. In positive ratings Cruz edges out Trump by 3 percentage points 45 percent to 42 percent. Among all registered voters Cruz has nearly 50% negative rating compared to Clinton's at 56 percent, and 26% viewing him positively only 6 points behind Hillary Clinton at 32 percent. These new figures suggest Cruz would be competitive with Clinton if Clinton were to get the nomination, and Cruz were to win at the second ballot following an improving result at the primaries including California because of Trump's huge gap in negative ratings with Republican voters compared to Cruz. The 1912 election provides a glimpse of how national party conventions were determined by shifting support- Clark the Democratic candidate with the most delegates was not nominated when the Tammany Hall machine supported Clark leading to the withdrawal of support from William Jennings Bryan of the liberal wing of the Democratic party. The nomination then went to Woodrow Wilson, the next leading candidate, on the 46th ballot....

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Michael Barnier, 73 years, is considered the French Joe Biden because of his service since entering parliament at the age of 27. He served under president Chirac in the 1990's, was foreign minister, twice European Commissioner in Brussels, and EU's negotiator for Brexit. He tried for the nomination of the Les Republicains to run against Macron for president. Macron chose Barnier because of his negotiating skills which will be needed as no party has a majority and the 126 parliamentary votes of the National Front of Marie Le Pen are needed for the government to be stable. Barnier also share Le Pen's concern about migrants having called for ceasing migrant entry for 4 years and quotas for lawful migrants set by the government and a referendum on migration.

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Peter Baker talks to experts on American presidents about Trump's 100 days in office. One expert says the presidency has changed Trump more than Trump has changed the presidency. Trump has told reporters recently that the job was harder than he thought, the decisions requiring much more thought and much harder. Described during the campaign as following instincts, impetuous and brushing off briefings, the Trump that has emerged in the early period is a president who surprisingly has been willing to listen to advice from Republican leaders in business and government. He has also changed course where appropriate on trade with Mexico, China, Germany and other countries, and shown decision making ability where appropriate such as over use of chemical weapons in Syria. He has listened to Muilenburg of Boeing on the Export-Import Bank, his Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on NAFTA and Mexico, to Gary Cohn his economic adviser for a careful studied approach on taxes and the economy, as covered here in Lyrarc.  And Trump has built a relationship based on discussions with president Jinping of China, which has helped create a stable climate for world trade and the economy after the ruffled period of the campaign. On NATO and South Korea he has given the lead to his advisers, Gen. Mattis, Tillerson and his vice president Pence. For this to happen president Trump with his exuberant and sometimes volatile personality has shown a capacity for learning and growth over this short period, surprising many. ...

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Seib of the WSJ compares the Reagan election in 1980 with Trump's bid in 2016. He finds the idea of an outsider when the public mood was for change favoring Trump, but says the comparison with Reagan falls short because Reagan had behind him 8 years as governor of the largest state in the country, and a bid for the nomination 4 years earlier. He also had personal positive approval ratings of about 70 percent compared to 27 percent for Trump.  Reagan's first trp after the convention in 1980 was to Alabama to win the support of George Wallace people in the Deep South. His focus was on reuniting all parts of the Republican Party something absent in 2016. Seib's comment about Trump being stronger on the economy is not clear. With the economy recovering, and slowing down as the presidential election approaches amid increasing uncertainty, it is possible that voters would not want to risk abrupt and sudden changes with an untested candidate. Working class voters could still see some of their concerns for change addressed by the Bernie Sanders part of the Democratic platform with help in college tution, addressing wage concerns, and opposing export of jobs, when Trump's program gives few specifics. Another difference between Reagan and Trump is that Reagan had put together an economic team under Shultz which was able to win credibility with an actual plan to implement in the first 100 days. ...

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Becky Branford of BBC News gives five reasons for Emmanual Macron's win in the French presidential election. She cites experts who say Macron was lucky, had a canny ability to see the timing was right for a new party to be formed so that socialist voters had an alternative. His luck comes from the failure of Republican centre right party Fillon to mobilize right wing voters following reports that he had hired his wife and children for government jobs. Yet this is not a complete explanation. Macron had the intuition that something was happening in French politics and the courage to act on it early, the youthful energy to take up the challenge of a mass movement. The events were the declining popularity of the socialists, and the fragmentation of the left wing, the uncertain prospects of the Sarkozy effort at comeback because of his image from years in power, and the need to counter growing far right support for the National Front- to do this by offering an alternative in the centre. From that one courageous decision things from that point fell into place as the Republican party also failed to attract strong public support.  A mere 24% of the vote enabled Macron to enter the second round. Macron's grasp of the economy and conviction helped him win the final debate with Le Pen decisively. His sense of his own mission to revive the idea of Europe sustained him against attacks from the far right, including the late cyber attack on his emails in the last 24 hours.  Macron could still have prevailed over Le Pen without the strong campaign for staying on a positive message and confidence in his ability to turn France's economy around. Yet without a margin of victory of this size in the face of abstaining voters from the far left, Macron as president would not have looked the same. The next step is parliamentary elections in June, and governing France with a turnaround plan requires winning a majority in parliament of sufficient magnitude that he can implement a program which makes the French economy as competitive as Germany's. People forget that Germany was considered a economy with high unemployment and not as competitive under the Schroeder administrations that preceded Angela Merkel, this includes the French with the layers of pessimism. Emmanuel Macron deserves credit not for winning, but winning with the idea of Europe, and it has done as much for him from the French people who have put their faith in Europe when the chips are down, as he has done for Europe already. How this helps put a turnaround in the economy in place is that he will have the energy and enthusiasm of Germany behind him, as well as the energy of French industry and young people to do what Germany accomplished in the 2000-2010 period to emerge from years of high unemployment with a strong economy. ...

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This report in the Economist points to the improved situation for Mexico after the scare from Trump's plans to build the wall and deport large numbers of immigrants. The peso dropped by 15% between mid November 2016 and January 2017, but has since recovered, and non-oil exports were up 5.5% in February 2017 over prior year with the manufacturing growth in the U.S.  Growth forecasts are now up from about 1% GDP growth previously to 2% for 2017, close to the 2.3% in 2016. Much of the change in mood in Mexico is a result of the failure of the early travel bans being blocked in the courts, the failure to get health care legislation through Congress, and the effort by the trade advisers and economic advisers around Trump to move Trump's positions more to the centre and closer to traditional Republican party positions. Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, says " a sensible agreement" can be reached with Mexico. Peter Navarro, trade adviser, talks about making "a mutually beneficial regional powerhouse." Robert Lighthizer, a veteran from the Reagan days, is likely to be made the new U.S. Trade representative. Still as the Economist points out the "20% border adjustment tax" continues to be supported by Paul Ryan in Congress to pay for tax cuts. But certainly the mood has lifted in Mexico in the first 100 days. This is true for economic policy in relation to China and Germany, and the close circle of Ross, National Economic Council head Gary Cohn, and Secretary of State Tillerson is moving Trump to the centre in policy statements to get things done. Mexico is faced with internal challenges of reestablishing the rule of law, improving infrastructure, reducing red tape and corruption, addressing problems in the education system, to promote economic growth. These challenges may prove to be as large as the external challenges were once thought to be. ...

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The 1985 hit "Small Town" by John Mellencamp is about Seymour, Indiana. Republican State Representative Jim Lucas says the city of Seymour welcomes immigrants legally here who are properly vetted. The concern is about migrants not vetted and not legally here. At a recent city council meeting Lucas attended it was decided not to go ahead with an economic development agenda. Says Lucas- “However, Seymour has changed drastically in just the past few years, and many of us are obviously concerned about the direction we are headed,” he added. New immigrant cases or migrant arrivals for Jackson county, Indiana, where Seymour is located went up to 435 in 2024 from 66 in 2021. It is at that point that the welcome center idea ran into opposition in this small town in Indiana, an hour from Indianapolis population 21,000 in Jackson County. As the town's population mix changes - it was 1% Hispanic in 1990, then 5% Hispanic in 2000- jumping in two decades of Bush-Obama-Trump-Biden to 25% Hispanic, questions besides economic about the sense of uneasiness of resident came up. Also of cultural literacy of the state of Indiana, and of the history of the state within the Union forged by Washington and Lincoln, FDR and Eisenhower, and of Wendell Wilkie of Elwood, Indiana. Unemployment rate for Jackson County is 3.3%, median income $63,000, home ownership 57%. Issues were not about the economy alone, and about how many immigrants could be absorbed and the cultural and language literacy of arriving migrants. There were issues about the perceived crime rate (metrics show traffic related offenses were up), and about drawing too much of the school's resources as English learning went up slowing learning in the schools. Republican State Representative Jim Lucas says it is crowding the health care clinic downtown with immigrants. ...

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Jean Edward Smith who wrote on FDR, calls him the Great Divider. But he asks who today would not ask how anyone could oppose social security, and yet FDR passed Social Security against the vote of entrenched interests. And in establishing the Tennessee Valley Authority to priovide cheap electric power to the impoverished South, FDR did not consult wth utility giants Commonwealth and Southern. When he created the SEC he did not request the cooperation of those to be regulated. When passing Glass Steagall Act that separated investment banking and commercial banking he did not look for approval from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers. So goes the situation in September 2009 as President Obama's initiative on health care is bogged down by lack of support from Blue Dogs in the Senate and Republicans.

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The Obama administration denied approval for the TransCanada Keystone pipeline. President Obama made it clear that the decision was made because of the "arbitrary" February approval deadline imposed by Republicans in Congress, and said this "is not a judgement on the merits of the pipeline." The administration suggested that TransCanada reapply. TransCanada CEO Russ Girling says the company is "fully committed to the construction of Keystone XL, and that it "will reapply for a presidential permit and expect a new application would be processed in an expedited manner to allow for an in-service date of late 2014." Experts say the U.S. could reuse some of the studies and analyses and that the process would take 18-24 months. Alberta's premier, Alison Redford, says she believes the project will get approved.

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A big change for the presidential election in 2012 is the lopsided way in which white voters who are struggling with job losses or seeing economic difficulties are alienated from President Obama. By 58% to 32% these voters favor Romney over Obama in a May 2012 Wahington Post-ABC News poll, a 26% margin. Of those struggling financially about 7 in 10 lack a college degree. This is happening even though 31% of these voters in this poll say they are Republicans and 27% Democrats. It is true that Obama could still win in 2008 losing this group 58% to 40%, an 18% losing margin, similiar to Kerry in 2004, and Al Gore in 2000. A wider margin of 26% poses more risks if the unemployment situation and the economy looks weaker by November 2012.

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This WSJ editorial summarizes the main reasons Republicans and many others object to increase in U.S. contributions as the IMF increases its resources under a new plan. The reforms increase the influence of Brazil, China, India, Turkey and other countries in the IMF governance. Also at issue is European influence that the U.S. sees allowing risky loans to countries such as Greece, where rules were relaxed under EU influence during the eurozone crisis. This topic of IMF reform will be coming up in the G 7 meeting of central bankers and finance ministers in Dec 2014 at Sydney, Australia, with the new U.S. IMF representative defending U.S. interests. The case for the reforms was presented in WSJ by Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, and is part of the link.

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Peggy Noonan, former Special Assistant to Reagan, describes her deeply felt and painful thoughts about the choices in the general election of 2016, as the political discourse deteriorates in the country. She sees the economic distress of the white working class neglected by the elite, she sees the ugly rhetoric during 2016 in the Republican primaries, and sees the rifts and divisions in the country, turning to the old Paul Simon tune for comfort- "The Boy in the Bubble" with its lyrics .... "The way we look to a distant constellation / That's dying in a corner of the sky/ Don't cry, baby, Don't cry."

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Michael Bennet in Colorado, Paul Hodes in New Hampshire, both Democratic candidates, are campaigning for austerity cuts to reduce the deficit. Paul Hodes suggested $3 billion in spending cuts that would remove airport, railroad and housing funds. As Democrats shift to deficit reduction and reducing spending, to keep up with shifting public sentiment; Republican candidates are shifting to radical solutions to reduce the deficit, including shutting down some federal agencies. This may result in an entirely different Congress ater the midterm elections- one focussed on deficit reduction just as the economy slows down as stimulus fades, and local governments cut back.

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If John F. Kennedy were writing Profiles of Courage in 2024 he would have James Lankford as one of these Senators who showed courage to take the right stand in the face of opposition from his fellow Republican Congressmen and people in his state and the country who support loyalty to president Trump. Lankford says in this NYT interview that in December 2023 the immigration bill would have passed Congress into law. He has always seen that no one person is the boss. Trump is not the boss even as president. He is a co-equal branch, says Lankford. He sums it up saying- I work for the people of Oklahoma not the president.  Senator Lankford of Oklahoma is interviewed by Lulu Garcia Navarro of the NYT for his role in negotiating a immigration bill with Democrats in Congress and president Biden that would fix asylum policy and close the Border with Mexico. It is a tough bill says Lankford, and the Republicans held onto their position that there would be no citizenship for the immigrants who crossed the border illegally since 2024. If it came up in December 2023 it would have fixed the Border, says Lankford. It came up in February, and by this time the election nominee was Trump who decided not to support it, as it would take away the immigration issue that he hoped to run on against Democrats. It is still alive as Kamala Harris says it is her top priority to get the Lankford immigration bill passed into law. To know Lankford is to know that he ran the largest Baptist youth camp in the Nation at Fall Creek. He believes every person has value and worth and even if he disagreed with them that person has value and worth. His faith, he says, is something important for him, and not something you take off and put on.  The title should be The Men and Women who Solved Immigration for the Nation. This includes Republican Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma, Senator Krysten Sinema of Arizona, and Democrat Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut. Lankford for 22 years a youth Baptist minister from Oklahoma, Sinema immigration attorney from southern Arizona, and Murphy a lawyer from Connecticut. The man who selected Lankford to negotiate the immigration bill on behalf of the Republicans in Congress was Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. For the Democratic party Pat Schumer helped bring Democrats in Congress and president Biden behind a tough bill that reflected the consensus view that something serious had to be done about the US Border for a lasting solution. This opportunity may come again if Kamala Harris wins as she says it will be her top priority to get the Lankford -Sinema Bill passed. ...