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The weaker dollar has given a boost to U.S. exports. The dollar has dropped by 9.1% compared to the prior year against a broad basket of currencies. U.S. exports have provided 1.4 percentage points of the 3.0% annualized growth since the 3rd quarter of 2009. The U.S. dollar is now 5% away from its all time low in March 2008, when tracked using the dollar index. Before the 2008 crisis the dollar had over a six year period lost about 40% of its value. Low interest rates in the U.S. and concerns about the deficit have contributed to the dollar's decline in value. While the decline helps boost exports, it also increases the price of oil in dollar terms and increases inflation. A Gallup poll in April showed 42% of Americans had no confidence in the Fed's policies for the economy, and 43% had no faith in Treasury Secretary Geithner. The decline is taking place even as Japan is recovering from the earthquake, and Greece is likely to have to restructure its debt obligations with European banks taking losses....

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Under Argentina's planned nationalization of oil company YPF, the government will take a 51% controlling stake in YPF. Of this stake the central government will take 51% and the provinces will take 49%. The bill is expected to be approved by Argentina's Congress. Spain's Repsol acquired a 57% stake during privatization efforts in the 1990's. YPF reserves constitute a large part of Repsol's reserves and 30% of its profits. Argentine oil production declined during the last ten years even as energy demand has increased in Argentina. The privatization of the 1990's is viewed badly in Argentina. Argentina now faces the challenge of increasing oil production and learning from efforts of Petrobras in Brazil.

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Von Mark Schieritz of Germany's Zeit Online describes the changes underway following the election campaigns in the U.S., and France, and the Brexit vote in Britain, all signalling the discontent of people left behind by the tech, capitalism, trade and globalization changes of the last two decades. The appeal of one time fringe politicians using racist slogans and divisive rhetoric to appeal to those left behind, appealing to people lacking intergenerational mobility, and without much hope for a better future, is a serious concern. People who are gullible enough, lack college education, or racially isolated so that they are not likely to look carefully at what is being offered in terms of programs and change of competing parties, and likely to overlook the hard and difficult road for corrective course of action, because of anger and pentup fears. Schieritz cites as part of this change the unanimously approved conclusion in its final declaration at the G-20 meeting in Chengdu, China- "The benefits of growth need to be shared more broadly within and among countries to promote inclusiveness." Yet this can be a sort of "too little, too late."  Bankers who are cited in an email going around Wall Street lack credibility with groups on Main Street, to people adversely affected by tech, trade and globalization changes that have been persistently ignored for over a decade, close to two decades. More convincing is the tone of Theresa May, the British prime minister's first statement outside 10 Downing Street- who spoke of the "burning injustices" and her determination to make this a top priority of her government. Still more convincing are the programs to invest $275 billion over 10 years in infrastructure put forward by the leading candidate in the U.S. presidential election of 2016, to provide easier access to public universities and colleges to those left behind, as a sure way to create new jobs and address intergenerational mobility. In fact every leading candidate had made the loss of upward mobility their central plank already in 2015, long before Trump and Sanders started their campaign. The real hope lies in western leaders Merkel, May, and Clinton, all keenly aware students of changes, all women by the way who have sensed the injustice and have the ability to come up with something new and promising for the future, after learning the lessons of the past. ...

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Thomas Friedman of the NYT sees a climate change as an area in which Trump has ignored the information of eminent scientists. He sees a weakness of the Trump administration in Trump's putting no importance to briefings by experts from climate change to national security briefings. Friedman sees Russia and hacking as a major issue facing the new Trump administration, including the new hearings in Congress from leading Republicans on the cyberattacks.

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IMF research by Ocampo and Erten shows that when adjusted for inflation since the 1970's, the prices of metals have remained about the same, food prices down 58%, and energy prices up 163%.

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Krugman puts it best when he says in the NYT that he's got a sick feeling in the pit of his stomach. Its just that the Republican challenge of not a single vote in the House for the $789 billion Stimulus bill just makes it harder to go back for more money which most definitely will be needed. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that over the next 3 years there will be a $2.9 trillion gap between what the economy could produce and will actually produce. $789 billion won't be enough, and more so because the weightage shifted in the direction of tax cuts from the original version. And considering the accelerating nature of the crisis on the housing front and in layoffs and consumption, the absence of a clear action plan with specifics to deal with the bad debt in the banking system, is what gives this sick feeling in the stomach. Because as is stated on these same pages by experts from Japan on February 12, NYT, see the link, Japan went through this same soul searching, public anger, controversy, and political leaders were afraid to take strong action for years from the mid 1990's till 2003 after Koizumi's election. Each action or set of actions each year during that period before 2003 was behind the curve, and did not match what was needed. For the USA this has happened already for 2007, 2008 and is heading in that direction for 2009, with a lack of consensus for the strong action needed. Would 4 million new jobs be generated by the current stimulus if that is a measure of success, as Obama indicated at his first press conference? With less going into spending for education, infrastructure, energy and other green projects, in favor of tax cuts and the AMT, and the feeling that going to Congress for more money will be harder and a partisan affair, will this become difficult to achieve? ...

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Leonhardt points out in the NYT that Hillary Clinton actually won in the popular vote by a substantial margin, by more than 2 million votes and more than 1.5 percentage points. He says that Democrats need to pay more attention to the working class in midwestern states- the job losses, crumbling infrastructure, and the plight of communities such as Detroit, Michigan which suffered through the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM, and again with the foreclosure crisis, the financial crisis of the City of Detroit. With a similar situation in the neighboring states of Wisconsin and Ohio, in places like Toledo and other parts of communities facing industrial decline. While the Silicon Valley centred region powered the economy in California, and the financial industry and real estate powered New York, older midwestern communities never really recovered from a long decline stretching over 2 decades. The result was the loss of faith in Democrats among union workers and young people, leading to the loss of Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan. For most of its history the Democratic Party was based on its union and working class base including a large number of white voters. Only under Obama because of his unique candidacy was the coalition so dependent on the minorities vote. Before minorities were part of the Democratic coalition, but not in the way under the Obama candidacy. A return to its historic and normal base among whites in unions and working class communities, liberals, minorities, is a way to go back to the historic and natural base of Democratic support. In a sense dependence on tech communities for election funding and the tech booms, globalization, may have distorted Democrats sense of their historic role as champions of the working class and middle class communities throughout the country. There is now an opportunity to restore this lost mission of protecting the interests of the middle and working class who have seen huge drop in net worth as reported by Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve at the Inequality Conference on October 17, 2014-"62 million households with a net worth of $11,000 for the year 2013." Poorly covered in the media and not made the utmost priority by Democrats (or Republicans). In the words of Janet Yellen, this was in the past several decades "the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality since the Great Depression." She added the shocking words "by some estimates, income and wealth inequality near their highest levels in the past hundred years, and probably much higher than much of American history before then." Even discussion in the media goes back to the Obama coalition and treats it as a way forward for Democrats, when history shows it was different and the situation described by Yellen calls for a serious response. ...

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Analysts expect double digit 2015 earnings per share growth for most U.S. railroads in 2015. Some shift to trucks is expected with 20% decline in diesel prices. Shipments of coal will decline as power plants shift to lower priced natural gas from coal. The lower shipment of crude is only a small part of railroad business and is not likely to affect the industry.

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Argentina plans to go ahead with its nationalization of Repsol YPF. Repsol asks for $10.5 billion for its 57% stake in YPF.

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Kyle Wingfield meets up with Robert Mundell, Nobel winner in 1999. What does he have to say now? He thinks the oil prices are on track and would reach $130 by 2020 with 3.5% inflation, starting with $34 a barrel in 1980 doubling to $68 in 2000 and doubling again to $136 in 2020. Today its already at $136 but he thinks it will settle down lower to about $100, so hethinks were not so far off track. On inflation he looks at the price of gold at$850 an ounce , and now its still about the same, with high inflation gold should be at $1500, so he does not see the public thinking high inflation is coming. He was in favor of the Reagan tax cuts and set the groundwork for this and aslo supported the euro. He believes the Bush tax cuts should be kept as it would be disastrous for the world economy. Mundell has always believed that there is a link between economic growth and lower tax rates. He advocates corporate tax rates of 25%. Tax rates went down to 28% under Reagan back up to 40% under Clinton and down to 35% under Bush. Hewould like to see a ceiling on marginal rates of 30%. He would like to see a fixed exchange rate so that there are not these large currency rate swings, the euro should be valued somehwehere between 90 cents to the euro to $1.30. The US has a growing population and better adoption of innovation with a younger population than Europe so he sees the USA as a leader in innovation and growth and the dollar or some new global currency should be formed for a global economy. Just as he supported the euro he supports a currency for Asia. He does not see overvaluing the Chinese currency as doing much good as he sees the Japanese economy hurt by the overvaluing of its currency after a period of Japoan bashing. He is an advisor to China on currency issues....

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A test supply of 170 megawatts from the Kudankulam nuclear project in Tamilnadu state is added to India's southern grid. Full supply of 1000 megawatts is to be added by the Nuclear Power Corp. of India Ltd. by end of 2013. India's Supreme COurt dismissed petitions questioning the project's safety in May 2013. India signed a preliminary contract for nuclear project in Gujarat with Westinghouse. The state owned Nuclear Power Corp. of India is in negotiations for a project planned in Maharashtra state. Over the next 20 years India plans to increase nuclear production capacity from 4700 megawatts to 63,000, a 12 fold increase. The first Kudankulam reactor going into operation in 2013 comes into operation after a delay of 7 years because of antinuclear and land protests as well as court cases. The slowing of growth in India, depreciation of the currency, and the acutely felt energy shortages as industrialization moves forward, are leading to a new perception of the importance of nuclear energy to supplement energy generated from coal and other sources. China is also moving forward aggressively with development of nuclear energy and working with Areva and other companies for safe nuclear energy development. The new planned reactor by Areva in the south of England is also likely to offset the perception of nuclear energy after the Fukushima nuclear disaster. For these reasons nuclear energy development in India is likely to accelerate without the long delays seen earlier....