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The situation in California on December 12 is dire as its daily cases for coronavirus increase to over 25,000. For Los Angeles county the figure is over 10,000. California coped well with the first wave. As the summer arrived fatigue with lockdown restrictions had increased, social distancing and mask wearing were not followed. When bars and restaurants opened in Los Angeles county huge numbers of people gathered in close proximity. Beaches were crowded.  A further spike in cases is expected from the Thanksgiving period. LA officials are saying one person is dying every 20 minutes. ICU capacity is shrinking. In southern California it has dwindled to less than 10%.  In Santa Clara county in Bay area only 31 ICU beds remain for 2 million residents. San Francisco is expected to run out of ICU beds on December 27, 2020. A patchwork of restrictions varying by county means there is no uniform effort. Fatigue with restrictions means compliance is patchy with social distancing and mask wearing even at the height of this pandemic. Public officials have failed to convince the public to do their part including the governor of the state and the mayor of San Francisco, because of inconsistent messages. ...

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This report in WSJ shows a generational problem that is creating a shortage of workers in Vietnam and China, that will require factory owners to increase wages significantly. US and European government policy supports these higher wages so that some of the manufacturing can be returned to bring jobs back home.   Younger workers do not want to spend much of their lives behind factory walls, and prefer less strenuous jobs shorter working hours in the services sector. They are having fewer children and at later ages than parents, resulting in less pressure to work in their 20's for a steady income. Factories in Vietnam are offering glass walls, yoga classes, improving cafeteria food, and offering kindergarden for worker children to attract workers.  In China there is 21% urban youth unemployment at a time of factory shortages. South Asian countries such as Bangladesh have infrastructure problems, and in India factories are finding it difficult to sign up workers. In the next 2 years this will result in costlier goods in US and EU, over 3-5 years this will bring many jobs back to the home countries. ...

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The is WSJ report points out that there were differences between the president and his defense secretary Mr. Esper, over the issue whether active duty military should be sent in to control protests in Washington D.C., Minneapolis and other cities in America. On May 25 president Trump considered firing Mr. Esper who said at a Pentagon press conference that he opposed bringing in the military to cities to quell domestic protests. Mr. Esper stated "The option to use active duty forces in a law enforcement role should only be used as a matter of last resort. And only in the most urgent and dire of situations. We are not in one of those situations now."  Military and defense officials were very much opposed to this as fundamentally contrary to military values.  Mr. Trump consulted several advisers who told the president that this was not the right thing to do. Mr. Esper for his part also was making his own preparations to resign and here again his advisers persuaded him to not do this, says this report in WSJ.  The incidents happened as protesters crowded Lafayette Square, the park across from the White House, and the president believed that violent protesters were making it difficult for National Guard troops to maintain control. Mr. Esper is a West Point graduate and former Army officer. The president's advisers from the military included Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley. Milley and Esper discouraged the president from invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807 and calling in army troops to the cities. Mr.Trump later visited the area around the church near Lafayette Park. The advisers consulted by the president on May 25 were Mark Meadows, White House chief of staff, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, David Urban, and two senators Tom Cotton of Arkansas and James Inhofe of Oklahoma. Mr. Cotton, a first term senator from Arkansas, later wrote a article in the NYT opinion pages on June 3 supporting use of the military. That article had the title "Send in the Troops- Tom Cotton" which NYT says was placed by editors, and appears baffling, considering the importance that this matter presents for the military and the nation. The NYT later stated with the article that it did not reflect "a thoughtful approach"  and lacked the "additional context" that would let readers be informed and think carefully. The essay also had a reference to the constitutional duty to the states from the federal government that could be misinterpreted, and without context. Mike Pompeo, one of the president's close advisers is Secretary of State. He is a West Point graduate, standing first in his class from the U.S. military academy in 1986, served 5 years in Germany in the 4th Infantry Division, before being elected to Congress from Kansas. The other key adviser in the decision Mr. David Urban headed the Trump campaign effort in a key state Pennsylvania. Both appear to be sensitive to public opinion and the thinking in the military.  By June 6 the White House press secretary said that Mr. Esper was instrumental in bringing calm to American cities after a week of protests following the death of Mr. Floyd in Minneapolis. For both Mr. Trump, Mr. Esper, senior White House officials, and the nation, moments for reflection and a sense of gratitude that calmer minds prevailed. ...

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The title is misleading as the US president DJT has said on Air Force One on Tuesday -"I don't care what she (Tulsi Gabbard) said, I think they were very close to having them." Most administration officials including the head of Central Command see the risks growing by the week. Here is what Gen. Erik Kurilla told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week- Iran is merely "steps away" from uranium enriched to weapons grade level of 90%. He said if Iran decided to build a nuclear weapon it could have the first 55 pounds of weapons-grade material “in roughly one week and enough for up to 10 nuclear weapons in three weeks.” 

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Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella, is intervewed by Shira Ovide of the WSJ. Compared to Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer, Nadella has a quiet demeanor. Responding to a question about how he made it from heading R&D for the Bing search engine to the CEO position, he says what helped him most was working in different jobs at Microsoft with different contexts and challenges, including a mix of some where success was achieved and some in which it was much harder. The experience of people in his management team is similar. He says his sense of being an outsider while being an insider is something he always had in him, and something he now encourages as a CEO. Reading outside of work is his only rule, and this may help him maintain some distance from work to think like an outsider. His preference is literary reading not common among senior managers- T.S. Eliot's poetry. Taking some off from work for medical leave or other reasons, is something he supports, especially from his own experience needing such leave as a 29 year old at Microsoft....

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Ben Rooney of the Wall Street Journal interviews Mike Lynch of Autonomy. He tells Rooney that the main reason he sold his company to H-P was that H-P had no legacy database business, and this made it possible for H-P to take a new look at how to make data human friendly and to do new things with data that haven't been done before. He describes this as the 85% of what data is about that none of the legacy database companies have shown interest in doing. H-P's size means that it can bring more resources to this effort. He calls this an alignment of values that was the main attraction of H-P to Autonomy. The canny Lynch also says H-P's price, an 80% premium over the share price, was not a blow-out or over-paying by H-P. The London listed technology firms are about 25% undervalued. The acquisition by H-P of Vertica, an advanced database company, also converged in the same direction, says Lynch. And the potential for H-P is to use these resources as a major advatage in developing new products. On the UK technology scene, Lynch says the access to high quality graduates from Cambridge, Imperial, Herriot Watt, and Warwick is an advantage. He worries more about problems lower down with standards of math failing in high schools. ...

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Greg Ip of WSJ points out that DJT's tariffs are not fully understood. DJT did not use tariffs in the way he is doing now in his first term. Today Congress understands that it is a negotiating tactic when the US is at a disadvantage with other nations using non tariff and hidden barriers. Mostly all countries except China will accept the tariffs and it generates $240 billion a year to finance US resurgence. In the past US spent years of negotiating to get agreements with recalcitrant countries like Japan or China or the EU. The US just doesn't have that kind of time when it has lost its manufacturing, its shipbuilding, its shipping and ports. The average tariff under Biden was 3%. It now is about 13.4%. DJT strategy is to simply hit all imports with a 10-15% tariff across the board as price for access to the US market and for its defense and military protection- this means EU, Japan, South Korea,Taiwan, India cannot retaliate.  ...

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Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Michael Oren, describes Iran's efforts to make weapons grade nuclear material, escalating the enrichment process from 3.5% to 20%. He says Iran now has 225 pounds of 20% uranium and 11,000 pounds of 3.5%, enough for 5 nuclear bombs, and points out that 20% uranium can be enhanced to weapons grade in weeks. During the initial negotiations the P5+1 nations demanded suspension of enrichment acitivites at a time when the enrichment process was at 3.5%, and transfer of stockpiles abroad. As negotiations dragged on Iran escalated to 20% enrichment. current demands of the P5+1 are for cessation of 20% enrichment and removal of the 20% stockpile, and closing the facility at Qom, as a first step. This has been rejected by Iran. In this op-ed Oren says Israel alerted the world about the Iranian nuclear program 20 years ago, and as this has continued to what it is today, Israel's view is that much of that time was wasted and the window for international efforts to cease and dismantle Iran's nuclear program is almost shut. ...

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Michael Barr was appointed in July 2022 to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by president Biden, and made the vice chair of financial supervision. As a legal scholar at the University of Michigan with a number of books published on the plight of black Americans after the financial crisis of 2008, he is familiar with the problems created by banks from a laissez fairre approach to regulation.  Barr helped write the rules for the legislation on supervision of banks after the financial crisis of 2008 that hurt worker and families, and minorities particularly in places like Detroit. He is now responsible for correcting the problems created by the Trump legislation that exempted banks under $250 billion from this regulation. Barr will bring this down to $100 billion, the original 2008 legislation has a threshold of $50 billion for banks to be subject to oversight by the central bank and stress testing. In 2018 Barr said about Trump's legislation to limit regulatory oversight in an op-ed in American Banker- "The rules (after 2008) were not meant to apply only to the largest handful of systemically important firms. It is the very antithesis of macro-prudential supervision to focus only on the largest handful of financial firms and to ignore risks elsewhere in the system." ...

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Any idea that herd immunity is the way out is dispelled by a simple look at these pictures from the NYT showing what the level of infections are today and what they would have to be for "herd immunity." No Asian nation has even mentioned the word. Most Asian nations have the most experience with virus of all sorts. The only government that supported the idea without saying so openly is Sweden as indicated in a report in FR24 on the amplification of coronavirus in Sweden compared to neighboring Denmark, Norway, Finland. Imagine with a threshhold of 60% of people having antibodies provided by experts for herd immunity, the current New York level of about 20% would have to triple, and Sweden's 7% would have to grow seven fold. It is hard to imagine New York going through something of these proportions. Looking at what works now that other countries handling it have set examples of what works provides a better way- low tech contract tracing the German way, and one used in Asian countries, and the cluster isolation through testing and contact tracing adopted in many Asian countries as well as Germany. Strengthening public health systems, and working one's way out of the crisis where there are no easy answers offers real and realistic hope. ...

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Kirsty Lang talks about the government failures in not investing in the British Council. Her husband Misha Glenny, 63 years, the writer and producer of the BBC 4 series How to Invent a Country, took a British Council scholarship to study in Prague at the age of 21. The neglect of British Council is happening at the same time that Germany is rejuvenating the Goethe Institut with new leadership and making it an instrument of cultural and educational exchange with Africa, Asia, and Latin America. This needs to happen with the British Council. People in these countries look for cultural and educational exchange with Europe and America through these institutions of culture and education. The libraries of these institutions perform an invaluable role. Long forgotten is the role these institutions including the US Information Service played in Asia, Africa and Latin America in the period after World War II, long before Misha Glenny's time. There is eagerness, even a hunger to learn about other countries in the young minds of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and this makes for a two way exchange that helps Europe and America learn about these countries- the way the Goethe Insitut is now setting as a new model for the future.      ...

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China is moving closer to the day when its population shrinks. This would be a sign of a seriously aging population with fewer young people as workers to support the older people and retired workers. The number of births fell for a fifth year in a row. In 2021 births were at 10.6 million dropping from 12 million in 2020, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.  The year 1961 the last year of the Great Leap Forward under Mao was the first time in its recent history that China actually had population decline with famine and other problems. This situation of population decline is fast approaching or already happened. In 2021 there were 10.1 million deaths. Women in China are not interested in having children. Typical is this woman in Beijing quoted in this WSJ report- she is 28 and teaches Korean language. She says she doesn't want to spend her savings on kids.  In China education is the pathway to a better life and income. And it is not cheap. Most of the savings of mothers will go into educating their children. Tutoring costs had become so high and the competition so intense that the government to tackle this problem announced that this will from now on be a non profit industry. ...

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The former president having 81% of the vote for non college educated in the primaries and  small percentage of votes among college educated means that if elected it would be that a whole population of college educated people are being effectively disenfranchised in choosing the government. It means that democracy that took over 200 years to include people with less education and income in selecting a government has moved in 2024 to doing the opposite excluding the educated with all its implications for good government of such a lopsided state of affairs. A recent poll shows 81% of Haley's 250,000 votes in the Republican primary would not vote for the former president. Haley won moderates by 61% to 31%. Trump won those without a college degree by 82% to 13% for Haley. Trump support huge in rural areas, Haley's in the suburbs.This shows how different this Republican party is from that even as recent as 2015. In fact Gallup has found that in 1999 the Democratic party was a plus 14 percentage points for non college educated and in 2024 the Republican party is a plus 14 percentage points for non college educated. Among postgraduate educated the gap was 8 percentage points in 1999 and now has widened to where Democrats have 60% to Republicans 21%. ...

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Pidcock, mountain biking gold, says the biggest thing is to inspire people that's what he loves to do. It is bigger than cycling. Cut off from the rest of the cyclists after a 40 second puncture and being slow to change wheels, Tom Pidcock of England, faced huge odds. At first he wasn't getting any closer, he wasn't making any inroads. He had made too many mistakes he realized. He was suffering and fighting to make a comeback. Only with 3 laps left did things change when he cut 15 seconds off the gap in one lap. At that point Pidcock knew he could come up front. He chose to go for it and found a gap which he took. He was competing with Frenchman Koretsky and the French cheered him on. Pidcock prevailed. He had done this on one of the rides (Stages) in the Tour de France descending down the Alps. Inspiring young people goes beyond cycling. ...

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Detail about Tata's $2500 car. What it looks like- a jelly bean small in front, larger in the back for aerodynamics, 30-35 horsepower, with bearings good for 45 mph, top speed 75 mph, trunk in front to hold a briefcase and battery, rear mounted engine with continuous variable transmission, a hollowed out steering wheel shaft, engine designed by Bosch 600 to 660 cubic centimetres 35 hp. Tata CEO, Ratan Tata, says in a interview the car will do far better on emissions than today's low end cars, and that the emissions standards were much easier to meet than the crash and safety tests, because of the lightness of the vehicle. Todays lower emissions standards in developing countries makes it easier by not having to use more expensive technologies. Electronic sourcing and internet auctions are used by Tata to a greater degree, 30-40 % of parts sourced this way compared to 10-15% by other larger carmakers. This helps meet the aggressive cost target. On the safety isssue its interesting to note that most of the people buying this car will be millions of motorcycle families and individuals (typically a couple of people can ride an Indian motorcycle). They may be safer in a light car than on a motorcycle. This has to be seen in the particular context of India. Renault-Nissan used the experience of lowcost car engineering techniques and secrets from its Logan car made in Romania and transferred it to its other models. Tata started with a clean sheet of paper, asked the quesion what they really had to have and was there some other way. It was Ratan Tata's dream to build a car in 1 lakh or 100,000 rupees or about $2500. The project had all out backing and tested Indian engineers ingenuity. The Tata effort will be studied by carmakers from around the world. Bosch does not underestimate the value of this business, as the car will target a market of hundreds of millions of people in India and China and developing countries. Ariba a supplier to Toyota, and BMW a supplier to Tata, helped Tata buy parts through electronic sourcing. China's Cherry Automobile company, another pioneer, had an Austrian firm help it design its engine for its small car. Tata worked with German company Bosch on the engine. And both must have used cutting edge technology but with a different goals and specifications to achieve unique tasks....

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American Bar Association officials now think that mandatory standardized tests such as the Law School Admission Test can deter law schools from using innovative ways to evaluate candidates for admission. Only one out of 21 members of ABA's accrediting council voted against removing mandatory tests such as LSAT or GRE to enter law school in the US. To attract people of diverse backgrounds is now considered important and many ways can be adopted to evaluate candidates without standardizing the process. Could Abraham Lincoln have done well on a standardized law school test? Could leadership qualities needed for the US to meet a new set of challenges be missed by standardizing processes and tests that produce the same type of candidate, and eliminate anything that does not conform to the set uniformity?

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"My economic plan is working and we are just getting started," says president Biden about the US economy as it registers growth of 2.4% in the second quarter. Inflation is cut to 3% from about 9% last year. Even US central bank Fed increases in rates by 5 percentage points since March 22 at consecutive bank meetings has not slowed down the US economy enough. Biden says there is nothing accidental about this. Biden pushed investment in the US. Business investment increased by 56% in the last quarter accounting for a third of the economic growth, much of it in infrastructure, in bridges and roads, in manufacturing plants. Biden administration has allocated $299 billion in infrastructure funding for projects, another $503 billion is done by private investment. And more is coming down the pipeline.

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Russia's national airline, Aeroflot, has goen through a transformation by improving safety and inflight service through a rigorous program of training for pilots and inflight service personnel by 2015. It is 51 percent state owned. Aeroflot has the advantage of the Moscow hub which cuts passenger travel time to distant destinations by 2 hours compared to Dubai hub of Emirates airlines. A flight New York to Shanghai is shorter by 2 hours for Chinese travellers. The Moscow- Rome flight is 80 percent filled by Chinese passengers for example. Passenger volume is up 10.3 percent in the first 9 months of the year, even as air travel in Russia was down 3.4 percent in Russia, according to Aeroflot and transport ministry. One advantage enjoyed by Aeroflot is its very young fleet of planes, with age of 4.3 years on average in 2014, compared to Delta at 17 years and British Airways at 12.6. It has 118 Airbuses and 25 Boeings, and has added 21 locally made Sukhoi Superjets to support the local aircraft maker. ...

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The western pharmaceutical companies see the potential for a big increase in sales in developing countries with better pricing to reach a larger number of people. Earlier this year Glaxo said it planned to reduce prices to two thirds of the levels in western countries, and charge 25% of prices in western nations to people in the 50 poorest countries. As a result Glaxo now forecasts a 10% increase in sales in 2010 in the Asia-Pacific area, after a 9% increase in 2009. The overall impact on public health will however be limited as even with this price reduction these medicines will benefit a fraction of the people. Today the combined pharmaceutical sales in Asia, Africa and Australia are $90.8 billon. According to IMS seventeen economies including China, India, Russia and Brazil will see pharma spending grow by $90 billion in a five year period 2009-2014. Of this China's demand will grow by $40 billion in this IMS Report on "phamemerging" economies. The upshot: phamemerging will account for 20% of global sales by 2013, up from 16% in 2008....

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McDonald's is seeing declining sales in the U.S. The percentage of people in the U.S. going to McDonald's declined by 12.9% in the 19-21 age group and was flat for the 22-37 years age group, according to Technomic. Younger Americans especially are seeking out healthier alternatives with emphasis on fresh food. Another competing trend is fast casual restuarants such as Panera Bread. Fast casual restaurants increased from 9000 to 21000 in the last 10 years, while McDonalds has remained at 14,000. Chipotle started in 1993 and now has 1600 locations. Five Guys has 1000 locations. Consumer Reports surveyed 32,000 subscribers and rated McDonalds as the last in taste of 20 burger chains. Consumer Reports gave as a reason millenials and younger consumers who will try hard to get the right food. Problems in Russia about sanitary conditions and declining sales in China after the government accusations about a key supplier using expired meat also add to problems. Increasing concern about healthcare and obesity also add to the search for alternatives and careful selection of meals, especially among younger educated buyers....

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Suki Kim describes how South Korea got addicted to credit cards. In 1999, after the Asian financial crisis, he says the South Korean government tried to stimulate consumer spending to help the economy. It encouraged banks to issue credit cards freely. By 2003, a South Korean journalist Dong-A-Ilbo says, the streets of Seoul were filled with credit card vendors, handing out cards to anyone willing to fillout an application, to college students, to the unemployed. By 2003, every South Korean had on average 4 credit cards, and collective debts of $100 billion. The cards became a status symbol, but many families lost their savings as credit card debt mounted. After millions defaulted and an increase in crime, prostitution and other problems, the South Korean government went in and bailed out LG Card, the largest issuer of the cards. The rescue worked, as credit card companies tightened standards. But South Korea has changed in one way- the national savings rate in 1998 was 25%, by 2007 it fell to 2.5%!...

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Donald Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee raises $64 million in July 2016 through a digital and mailing effort that helps to bring in a large number of small donations- about two thirds of it. The fund raising effort for Trump brings a total of $82 million in July, just short of the $90 million raised by Hillary Clinton that month. Much of the digital fund raising effort was made possible by efforts made by the RNC to improve its mailing lists since the last presidential campaign. Many of the Trump donations are made from the Trump website buttons of $10, $25, $50, and by an offer to match this with Trump's own personal finances. Hillary Clinton is also ramping up her fund raising. Trump now has $74 million on hand, up from $1.5 million at one point, and Hillary Clinton has $102 million. For the Trump campaign that was far less organized than the Clinton campaign, this is an effort to catch up, though this comes quite late in the campaign with only 3 months left; with advertising rates higher, and not enough time to invest in digital and campaign infrastructure.  ...

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The close alliance between the CDU and the CSU in Bavaria appears to be unraveling. The immigrants at German borders have dwindled down a trickle, about 11,000 immigrants today compared to the wave of immigrants entering Germany in 2015. The CSU's prime minister in Bavaria Mr. Soder and the Federal Interior minister from the CSU Mr. Seehofer, blame the conflict between the two parties on the 2015 decision by Merkel on immigration. The German ARD broadcaster shows 62% of Germans favor stronger action on immigration. The pressure on the CSU comes from the gains by the anti-immigration party AfD in recent national elections. The CSU hopes that by shifting its own position on immigration to a standoff with the CDU and Merkel's position it can hold off the Afd in the elections in Bavaria in October 2018. The pressure on Merkel comes from members in the CDU and from the SPD leadership, which have accomodated some of the criticism of open immigration to reduce the immigrants at German borders, yet now see the need to meet any challenges to Merkel's authority. This is why the head of the SPD, Ms. Nahles called Mr. Soder's push for a confrontation on the immigration issue as acting "like a bonzai Trump." The CDU party leaders in Bavaria call for a "axis of the willing" joining leaders of the governments in Austria and Hungary. and the newly elected government in Italy to impose immediate controls on immigration at the borders. Merkel says she is open to different points of view within the CDU-CSU alliance, but action should be based on keeping the European Union together, and be taken after EU meetings in Brussels. Will this result in a fall of the government? Angela Merkel has adapted to the changing situation on immigration leading to the small trickle in new immigrants at German borders today. Even if the AfD anti immigration party joins the CSU the percentage of the vote for the AfD is mainly in the eastern part of Germany, and CSU in Bavaria, with 12.6% voting AfD in 2017 elections, and about 7% voting CSU mainly in Bavaria. This compares with the Left at 8.9%, Greens at 9.2%, and SPD at 20.5% for a combined 38.6% of the vote that favor Merkel's new coalition policies. This combined with the 25% of the vote gained by Merkel's CSU party gives it about 64% of the vote and about 489 seats in the 709 seat German parliament. A test of Merkel's authority is not likely to be sustained. By making this a pro-European position Merkel has shifted the issue from one of immigration which is now minimal and one on which Merkel has adapted her policies to a stand on Germany as leader with France of the European Union. At this particularly sensitive time when Germany and France are negotiating with the U.S. on trade and Britain on Brexit, German public opinion is likely to consider the impact of new elections and more uncertainty as not good for Germany. With the SPD, Left, Greens and CSU having 64% of the vote, and the anti immigrant parties CSU, AFD about 20% concentrated in the less economically developed eastern part and in Bavaria, the chances that Merkel's position would be weakened or her authority challenged is very unlikely.   ...

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The $15 billion in losses at RBS in 2013 continues the bad news from RBS. It now goes through another restructuring. This time with new CEO Ross McEwan. RBS plans to reduce the seven business lines to three lines, and set medium term cost cutting target of 8 billion pounds. Headcount will go down by 20,000. Risk weighted assets will be cut by 50 billion pounds.

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The yellow vest protests in France puts Macron as a change agent as out of step with the broader changes taking place in France as fears of economic security and financially struggling families take precedence over other issues. Macron had hoped to setup business friendly policies but has only a small support base. Only about 24% supported Macron in the first round of voting with 40% claimed by parties to the far right and left.  The yellow vest protests are spontaneous and do not have nationalism or race, migration as motivating factors. No far right party is involved, or far left party, or the socialists. It is basically about the institutional and political structures not able to respond to the fears of economic insecurity in rural France and in smaller towns. It is about loss of social cohesion in the economic progress of the last two decades. The focus is now on minimum wage, salaries, and a sense of fairness and opportunity that existed in a previous era that now appears ruptured. ...