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Witkoff- Putin peace talks in Moscow August 6, 2025 as DJT talks about further sanctions.

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British MP raises issue of Arab Gulf countries providing 37% of China's oil imports, excluding Iraq 27%, vs 11% from Iran and 20% from Russia- 2024 US EIA. Tom Tugendhat says China has to balance its interests in the region after the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, between Iran, Gulf monarchies, and Russia. China also faces a more credible choice of accelerating the development of renewable energy in the same way that India and the European Union face. US will act as a supplier of last resort  adding Venezuelan and other supplies but temporarily as the entire Middle East region poses quandaries for China, the US, and India, European Union. The quandary stems from the irreconciliable differences between religious sects in the region, post 1950 ideological and religious militancy,  in which neither China, India, the US, Russia or the European Union wants to get drawn into after 5 decades of bitter experience in the Middle East.

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This exceptional report by Chulov in the Guardian shows the changes in the war in Iraq and Syria in 2015-2016 since the downing of a Russian jet by Turkey in late 2015. It says that the Syrian government's future was uncertain in late 2015 with Turkish support for rebel forces in the north. During this period Russia curtailed trade and tourism relations with Turkey, and improved relations with the Kurds. Russia intervened in northern Syria directly to prevent a collapse of Syrian government forces in the north. Kurdish forces were already controlling large parts of the Syrian territory adjoining Turkey, and Turkey was concerned about the support to Kurds within Turkey from Kurds in Syria and a historical movement for  Kurdish independence. In April 2016 Russia made a move to win Turkish support by saying it would support the territorial integrity of Syria, so that no support would be given to the Kurds. As the U.S. consistently supported the Kurds in the fight against ISIS, Turkey under prime minister Erdogan changed its policy of support for rebel forces in Syria to focus on what it perceived as the threat fom Kudish control of the region at its Syrian borders. Rebel forces were told to focus not on the Syrian government forces but on ISIS, leading to withdrawal of support in Aleppo. What remains now of the war in Syria and Iraq is Iranian influence in Iraq, the Russian influence from support of the Syrian government in Damascus, and for the first time U.S. ground forces in the north with 900 troops supported by artillery on the side of the Kurds. The next stage in the war to take ISIS controlled Raqqa is being negotiated between Russia, Turkey and the U.S., according to this report.  ...

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India Russia trade at 64 billion dollars is expected to grow. Cooperation agreements from any sectors were signed in New Delhi during Russian president Putin's visit to India with a large Russian delegation. India Russia cooperation will continue in the field of nuclear energy. US is working with Russia on a settlement of the Ukraine war.

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There is a 82% jump of oil at sea in 2025 as China and India stay away from sanctioned oil from Russia Iran. About 1.4 billion barrels or 15% of supply out at sea on tankers by December 2025. When Modi met Putin he offered to continue supply of oil. India says Jamieson Greer in a recent interview with Sarah Burns, is not buying Russian oil and negotiations are ongoing so that a deal with US on dropping tariffs is reached in the very near future. This oil at sea is keeping prices of Brent crude at about $66 in December 2025. DJT is referring to prices down for oil, to gas pump prices in US states having dropped to $1.99 a gallon to show progress in tackling the affordability crisis in the US at a rally in Pennsylvania.

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The largest US military community of outside the US is Kaiserslautern 73 miles from Frankfurt in Germany. Kaiserslautern is 10 miles from the Ramstein Base which is where the US European Command is located. US president is considering reducing the US military presence in Germany, as it shifts responsibilities for European defence to Europe. Failure of the EU , Germany, Britain, Italy and France to support the US in its Iran effort to get nuclear materials transferred outside to Russia or some other country is leading to a rift in trans-atlantic relations. 

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US Russia relations improve in 2025. The new national security document of US put out by the DJT Administration says that Russia is not a threat.  It sticks to migration and western identities when facing civilizational erasure over next two decades as key threats to the US. It poses questions for the European Union, Germany and France, yet also offers away out of the "mess" in Ukraine with the Russians saying NATO was too close to their borders as the real issue, and the US not aligning itself with NATO reducing big power tensions including nuclear arsenal expansion. Germany rebuilding the Bundeswehr and it's military offers a rebalancing of the military situation yet is not the long term solution to the Ukraine problem, NATO limiting it's role and the US limiting it's role in NATO offers a solution that preserves the long term interests of Western Europe(Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain) and preserves world peace and dialogue. It also promotes integration of India and Russia into the world trade and world economy as it diversifies from the dominance of China in world trade and the world economy of the last 20 years of free trade that deindustrialized US and Europe. What this national security document does not say is that China's dominance in world trade and the errors of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India in world trading relationships and their economic approach that made this possible is the central issue and calls for diversification of supply channels in the world economy. This shifts the direction of the world in a peaceful direction where the US, Japan and Europe, India can compete in economic growth and trade with China on equal terms. ...

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Oil prices and the US war with Iran -Straits of Hormuz how much of it remains open, European supplies, and drop in production in Gulf region, how these risks are managed will have an impact on inflation. Inflation could end up at 2.9% instead of 2% says Greg Ip. Gep Ip does not take into acocunt new flexible oil policy under which India gets a waiver to buy oil supplies from Russia, China sources more of its supplies from Russia to make up for the supplies lost from the Middle East. Russia steps in for a temporary period to keep oil prices lower. US ramps up Venezuelan and its own oil production to meet the needs of other countries such as Japan and S. Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Europe. Conservation measures are enacted to reduce oil use for the same level of GDP as taken in Japan and Germany.

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Oil prices in the U.S. drop to $55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and $65 a barrel for Brent crude price. Earlier expectation of the impact of reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil shrinking global oil supplies have been reversed with increased production from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.

Another new development that caused this reversal in sentiment is that the Trump administration granted waivers to some buyers of Iranian crude oil. The U.S. trade dispute with China has also added to this with lower growth forecasts. Unlike in previous years OPEC or Saudi Arabia cannot by itself shrink global supplies with production cuts. The U.S. and Russian output also plays a significant part.

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India's 267 million farmers 44% of the workforce that make it difficult to reduce 39% tariff on imported dairy and grain. Older Americans have lost the memories of famines in India including one in Bihar in the 1960's, not to mention the Bengal famine during the British rule in 1944 in which Britannica says 3 million people lost their lives. By 1965 India depended on US grain. Dhume reminds readers that in as recent as 1966 9 million tons, a quarter of US wheat crop, was sent to India to prevent famine. China had a similar situation of famine and starvation in the 20th century. This is why India and China have focused effort on achieving self sufficiency in food, and  agricultural productivity is one of the great achievements of the 20th century ranking with electricity and other inventions. When it comes to other upscale agricultural products such as walnuts, blueberrries, and almonds, and other, India's middle class would benefit from nutritional benefits of US agriculture in these fields at low or no tariffs. This suggests there is room for opening some sectors other than dairy and grain that are staple to the Indian diet of the vast population. US 50% tariff is motivated by India going from 2% Russian oil imports in 2019, to shifting importing from Saudis and UAE to Russia so that Russia now makes up a third of it's oil imports by 2024. In May it reached 4 million barrels a day dropping to 2 million barrels a day by July 2024.   ...

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Improvements in relations after Russian intervention in Georgia during the Bush administration's last year. Cooperation to reduce nuclear stockpiles with aview to be nuclear weapons free, and to discourage nuclear proliferation with N. Korea and Iran as immediate cases. But some issues such as Georgia and Ukraine's admission to NATO were areas in which the two sides agreed to differ. There isn't the same Obamamania in Russia that one finds in Europe. And there has been much anti-western sentiment in Russia in recent years.

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A Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile attack on Kviv is repelled with all missiles shot down on May 16, 2023. For the first time in the war the missile attacks are causing far less damage than in the early days of the war. A DW.com German reporter in Kviv on German television says the whole attack lasted only 15 minutes before things were back to quiet over Kviv with missiles exploding in the sky not on the ground.

This week Mr. Zelensky visited Berlin, then Aachen for the Charlemagne Prize as a symbolic acceptance of the Ukrainian people into the European community of nations with Zelensky speaking in Aachen in Ukrainian. He then went to Paris and London. Next week the G7 meet in Hiroshima, Japan. The war that followed a pandemic enters its 64th week in 2023.

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The U.S. and the EU join together for stronger economic sanctions on Russia. The sanctions affecting large Russian banks ability to raise capital in financial markets are likely to affect the Russian economy. Russia was suspended for export credit and development finance. VTB Bank was one of three more Russian banks added to the list of banks with economic sanctions. The EU took similiar action against Russian state owned banks and imposed an arms embargo in July end 2014.

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This editorial in the WSJ tackles the issue of Russian hacking during the U.S. presidential election by saying that this should not be seen as a move by Democrats after the election defeat, and yet at the same time supports the Republican Congress's efforts to hold an inquiry into the hacking during the election. 

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Two German Patriot air defense systems are to be transferred to Ukraine and replaced by the US. The decision by Germany's Merz comes as Kyiv suffers a cruise missile attack that destroys an apartment block leading to 31 dead and 159 wounded on July 31, 2025. Five of 8 cruise missiles used evaded air defense systems.  The war brings ancient history important to Russia in the founding of the Russian state in European history before 1450 and complicated history after the Communist Bolshevik Russian revolution in the Ukraine region, the Cold War and Russia returning to its historic role of a Northern European Power. Russian commentary on Russian nationalism today suggests Russia seeks acceptance as a major European power without Wall Street's evaluation based on GDP of nations leaving Russia middling status. Wall Street gives disproportionate importance to China relative to India, Russia and Brazil three large nations on 3 continents for example. Witkoff is on the way as DJT emissary to Russia to seek some solution, but the war drags on as Russia sees itself making slow yet steady progress and seeks to end the war on terms favorable to it following huge loss of life estimated at hundreds of thousands. In August both sides including DJT are losing patience. DJT offers more sanctions but says at the same time that this may not deter Russia. Following SPD's Scholz frustrated yet restrained approach to the war, Chancellor Merz is investing in a rebuilding of Germany's defense forces and it's infrastructure. ...