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Republican candidate Trump wins 51% of the vote in Iowa to De Santis 21% and Nikki Haley 19%. Trump won among evangelical voters with 58% support. In cities his vote declined. In Story County home to Iowa State University in Ames, it was 34%, and in Johnson County where University of Iowa is located 36% supported Trump. In 2024 18percentage points separate Mr. Trump's support in low levels of college or post secondary education to higher levels of college or post secondary education. In 2016 Mr. Trump received 29% of the vote in low college education areas to 22% of the vote in high college education areas- a spread of 7 percentage points. Iowa is a state with a large farm and agriculture sector. Other states with manufacturing in the midwest tended to move away from Democrats in 2016. Some of this momentum has reversed with union support for Mr. Biden who has taken a pro-union stance in a way that is not matched by any Democrat since FDR and Harry Truman in the 1930's to 1950's. The shift of Clinton to globalism and Obama to tech companies cost Democrats heavily in 2016 with workers in manufacturing- something that is reversed in drastic ways since 2020 with Mr. Biden on the picket line at UAW union auto strikes in Michigan. ...

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The WSJ first reported just days before the 2016 presidential election about National Enquirer suppressing a story relating to Karen McDougall and the former president. That story did not get much media coverage. In 2018 WSJ reported a similar story relating to Stormy Daniels and the former president. At the time not much attention was paid to these stories says WSJ and the legal consequences were not anticipated. Last week a NY jury made a conviction on 34 counts of the former president Trump on the Stormy Daniels hush money payment with testimony by the former president's lawyer David Cohen. During the history of the US since its founding in 1776 under men of courage and leadership qualities of George Washington, John Adams and Jefferson, to the recent presidents from Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy-LBJ, never faced a situation of this kind. 

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The NYT fact checker on the interview with president Trump in July 2017 with Haberman and Baker, finds errors on the following subject matter- Ms. Abe the Japanese prime minister's wife speaks English though Mr. Trump said she doesn't, the 2 Napoleon's get mixed up, and interpretation of health insurance and social security gets mixed up, the FBI Director reports to the Attorney General not the president, Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein is from Philadelphia, and adoptions relate to sanctions in U.S. -Russia relations.

Being loose with facts can be humorous in some situations and more serious in others. It helps for readers to always have the facts straight.

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Mr. Trump told Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar at the White House he is disappointed with the way Brexit has evolved in the three years since he supported Brexit during the election campaign. Trump said "it is tearing the country apart. Its actually tearing a lot of countries apart."  After a series of votes in the British parliament Trump told reporters he gave May some negotiating advice. "I gave the prime minister my ideas on how to negotiate. I think she would have been successful., she did'nt listen to that." So what happened? What advice did Trump give on negotiating? There are only some hints on this. Theresa May told the BBC in an interview after Trump's visit to London in July 2018- "He told me I should sue the E.U. -not go into negotiations., Sue them."  Trump made a prediction a day after the referendum to Leave saying "the E.U. is going to break up." This was at the time of the financial crisis in the European Union with problems in Greece, Spain and Portugal. Since then the economies of these countries revived. Spain has 3% growth for three years even though it faces fresh elections. In his 2000 book "The America we Deserve" Trump pointed out his sense threat the U.S. should pull back from the E.U and save millions of dollars annually. In recent years he has suggested that the E.U was "a foe"  and "it was formed as a consortium so that it could compete with the United States." The problems in Europe happened in the period 2016-2018 with divisions emerging on the issue of immigration. This wave of immigration was a result of Arab and African conflicts and lag in Africa between development and the rapidly rising population. Chancellor Merkel was ill prepared to handle this wave of immigration and in retrospect her policy did little to address the roots of the problems of immigration from North Africa, a policy later adopted when popular support for immigration of this kind and scale declined. It affected the vote for Brexit playing into deep seated doubts about the benefits of EU membership in parts of Britain.  Mr. Trump supports no-deal Brexit which was defeated by large margins in the British parliament and lacks support across all parts of society, business and political parties in Britain. Trump own sense that Brexit has divided many countries and his dialogue with the Irish prime minister must show an awareness of the views of Ireland about the hard won peace and E.U. borders in Ireland.     ...

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CNN reporter Cassie Spodak provides this exceptional report into the minds of New Hampshire Democratic voters who gave Bernie Sanders a 22 percent lead in the New Hampshire Democratic primary over Hillary Clinton. In October 2016 Hillary Clinton has the support of Bernie Sanders against Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election. She described it as "100 percent support" in television debate. Sanders has appeared with Clinton twice, and campaigned 4 times in New Hampshire, and continually across the country. Younger New Hampshire voters still long for Sanders as their favored candidate. Older voters and some who have been motivated by Sanders to run for local office see the shaping of the Democratic Party platform as a victory for Sanders. Key planks of Sanders, taxes on the wealthy and higher incomes to pay for student tuition, infrastructure, and helping working class families, are now key parts of the Democratic platform. These voters see this as a pragmatic step and are enthusiastic in their support for Hillary Clinton. Overall Clinton now has 87 percent of Democratic voter support in New Hampshire according to a WMUR/UNH poll in mid October 2016, and she is doing well with millenials and independents nationally, a critical bloc of voters for Clinton to show nationwide support. One member of the steering committee for Sanders in New Hampshire named Dudley Dudley, reflects the opinion that has shifted the party to emerge united during and even more so in the final months of the presidential campaign of 2016- she tells the CNN reporter Spodak that she supports Hillary because "of the way she has grown, and stretched," and the way Clinton and Sanders are now campaigning together and working together. Both Clinton and Sanders deserve credit for their extraordinary ability to grow during their campaigns and during the party's way to shape the way forward. ...

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The Economist describes the odd situation where only 17% of Republican voters voted in the presidential election primaries with the television media talking about huge voter turnout. Donald Trump wins a series of primaries by March 2016 with about 35-40% of the vote, securing less than 8% of eligible voters and headed for the Republican presidential nomination. In the fall 2012 election in the U.S. voter turnout was 54% and 129.1 million Americans voted, just to get an idea of how things change in the fall of 2016.

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At 79 years, Wilbur Ross will be one of the oldest people serving in any administration, as he serves as Commerce Secretary in the Trump administration. Wilbur Ross is best known for the turnaround efforts in the steel industry. In 2002 he acquired LTV Corp, a third largest steel producer in the U.S. facing tough times and legacy costs, for $125 million in cash and $200 million in environmental liabilities. In 2005 he sold his International Steel Group to Arcelor Mittal for $4.5 billion, and is still an independent director on the Arcelor board. Ross's earlier experience was as a bankruptcy specialist at Rothschild Inc. in the 1970's working on restructurings at Texaco, TWA and Continental Airlines. Analyst Charles Bradford is cited in this report by WSJ's John Miller, who competed with Ross in restructuring proposals for failing assets, and describes Ross as working harder and being tougher to make the deals. Some of these restructurings involved cutting pensions and large layoffs. The entire U.S. steel industry faced problems from foreign competition and legacy costs at the time. This included representing bondholders for Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City. At the time Ross told creditors considering seizing the asset for a possible missed payment that it would be better to keep Trump in charge for Trump properties as they would be worth more with Trump inside. This led to Ross later providing critical backing for the Trump campaign and raising money from the business community. Mitt Romney had similiar work at Bain Capital in turnaround of failing companies, later turning to politics as Governor of Massachusetts, and 2012 Republican nominee for president. Both Romney and Ross have come under criticism for their role in cost cuts at companies involving layoffs and cutting worker benefits. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ says one of the mysteries of the Republican campaign primaries of 2016 is why each candidate, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Christie, and Carson, all took on each other and not Trump- in the process leaving Trump to be "winning, winning, winning."

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There is a clear difference between Biden and Trump on the Climate. Biden put the US back into the 2015 Paris Climate Change Treaty in fight against climate change after Trump took the US out of it. Trump supports coal and oil & gas. Biden is working to phase out of coal and fossil fuels in a way that still keeps the economy strong. There is place where the difference is so starkly clear. Expect climate change events, storms, fires, floods to grow under Trump, and storms, fires and floods to be made to recede under Biden with strong climate change action.

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The specific charges in the New York indictment of Mr. Trump are shown in this analysis by the BBC. The first line of the Statement of Facts that accompanied the indictment spells out the prosecution case.

"The defendent Donald J. Trump repeatedly and fradulently falsified New York business records to conceal criminal conduct that hid damaging information from the voting public during the 2016 presidential election...The defendent orchestrated a scheme with others to influence the 2016 presidential election by identifying and purchasing negative information about him to suppress publication and benefit the defendent's electoral prospects."

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The WSJ's Monica Langley provides insights into Donald Trump's campaign strategies, some of them right out of his book "The Art of the Deal." His target voter is from a think big strategy to get voters across a broad spectrum using the slogan "Make America Great Again," with a knack of tapping into a deep well of voter frustration with the political establishment. How to get attention in the media is the next step Trump tackled by using social media to the fullest - using Twitter often, making statements that attract attention such as the ones on China, Mexico, Senator McCain and Muslims that tap into failure of political correctness to address voter frustration on trade and jobs, immigration and terrorism. The Trump campaign has 14 million followers on Twitter, and 50 million "engagement" accounts on Facebook- that cost very little. Social media is to Trump in 2016 what community networking on the PC dashboard was to Obama in 2008. As the WSJ pointed out in an editorial, the splitting of the Republican vote among many candidates, and the failure of candidates to grasp the nature of the unconventional campaign waged by Trump- descending into attacks based on target groups of voters on every candidate except Trump- created the opportunity Trump has grasped with his knack for improvising along the way. Commonsense campaigning without sophisticated strategies, improvising often along the way, using the available medium of social media at little cost to get the message and slogan across, helped Trump make the deal with voters to upset the political establishment. The Sanders campaign is also based on careful repetition of the same slogan and facts about inequality and lobbyists, over and over again, offering strong action on health care and college tution just as Trump offers strong action on China trade, immigration with the idea of the wall, and barring entry of Muslims for terrorism till "we figure out what's happening." The difference being that Trump thinks big and targets the entire electorate of his party's voters in the primaries from the beginning, and a broad based campaign on many issues. Underestimating your opponent carries many risks in politics, never more so than when you are out of touch or not listening to voter frustration, and fail to speak up to it....

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Following the events in Charlottesville where a car drove into protesters, president Trump's remarks seemed to equate the actions of white supremacists to protesters. This has led to strong criticism from the business community with most business leaders withdrawing from the president's advisory councils from the business community- the Strategy and Policy Forum,  and Manufacturing Council. This includes the CEO's of Johnson and Johnson, Merck, JP Morgan Chase, GM, GE, 3M, and other companies. In his response president Trump disbanded both councils. JP Morgan Chase CEO Dimon said of the president's remarks- 'Constructive economic and regulatory policies are not enough and will not matter if we do not address the divisions in our country." Members of these councils had hoped to use their presence to have a voice. Yet by August 2017, 6 months into the Trump administration this appears to be changing, with CEO's of many companies expressing the view that the Republican policies favoring business would not matter if the basic consensus on tolerance and openness and what the U.S. stands for is allowed to deteriorate. ...

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William Barr, a former Attorney General in the first Bush administration, is selected by president Trump for Attorney General in 2018. One of the people who worked under Barr, Pat Cipollone, is the new White House counsel. Barr has supported Trump in the Comey affair. 

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In this insightful essay Peggy Noonan, former spokesperson for president Reagan, says that Republicans like Speaker Ryan with the Republican Health Care bill are making the same error made by president Obama.. Noonan says she had suggested a different way for president Obama to show compassion for the uninsured- first wait till the 2008 financial crisis was tackled, tackled waste and fraud in Medicare first, then look at the option of expanding Medicare to help the uninsured, and not the approach taken of swiftly focussing on the Affordable Care Act early in the first term disregarding Republican objections. She says Republicans are making the same mistake now by ignoring the impact the bill would have on Trump's base of working class Americans who may be affected by the bill's provisions not taking into account incomes in offering incentives or subsidies. Noonan says Trump did get one thing right in calling it a "carnage" for the worsening opioid epidemic in America which has hit rural areas and parts of the midwest hard. Noonan says Eberstadt has correctly documented the collapse in working class Americans wages and standard of living, and Caldwell the opioid epidemic at another level to their health. She also supports journalist Carlson who questioned Speaker Paul Ryan's judgement about eliminating the tax on wealthy investors in new legislation in a Fox News interview, as she says responding to the sense of America at the moment means listening to the sense of being left out of ordinary Americans, who have done not as well as the wealthy who have benefitted from a surging stock market.  ...

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America had forgotten it's workers built America in a Clinton-Trump world. The Federal Poverty Level is $35000 - $40000 when entry younger UAW workers at lower tiers make $34000 a year during wage negotiations and a UAW strike in 2023. The contrast from 2016 could not be greater- no president in history except Biden on a worker strike picket line yesterday, Mrs Clinton oblivious about unions in the midwest in 2016. Mr. Trump saying wage negotiations not important as he visits Drake Enterprises, automobile parts supplier, in Clinton Township, Macomb County, Michigan. The Guardian reports most were small business owners, with  few autoworkers. Enthusiasm of small business owners high for Trump in this swing county in Michigan. In stark contrast to the 2016 campaign president Biden was seen the previous day with a bull horn at a UAW auto workers strike picket line, becoming the first US president in history to do this. Biden said "workers built the middle class." Trump said China was the enemy not low wages or incompetent bosses, saying "the current wage negotiations are not as important as you think," when workers had tiered wages from previous concessions on wages, with entry level wages starting at about $17 an hour. That is only slightly above the $16 minimum wage in California. America in the Clinton-Trump world had truly forgotten that workers in its factories built America, and workers families made America what it was for most of the century since Lincoln and the Industrial Revolution. ...

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WSJ reporter Monica Langley provides a glimpse behind the scenes of how Donald Trump comes up with his attacks on rivals, and statements on immigration, terrorism, refugees. Trump pays close attention to what is riling voters on any particular week, but other rival politicians are not willing to say. He looks for what resonates with the public, and in today's environment where politicians are cautious, careful and plodding, this strategy works. Donald usually puts down a few points on his private plane, looks at reports from campaign staff, yet makes all the decisions himself on what and how to say it. His memory helps, he says. And he has a flair for words, sounding uncouth at times, but yet choosing words carefully enough to sound reasoanble to his audience. In Jan 2016 this approach has worked for Trump in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, stalling progress by rival Ted Cruz, and holding back other rivals. Yet this approach has its risks as the primary season progresses. One of the changes in the Republican party politics in 2016 is the emergence of two candidates Donald Trump representing the white working class, and Ted Cruz representing evangelicals, who are both strident and willing to take strong positions on issues in striking contrast to leading Democrats. Trump on China, immigration, refugees, and Cruz on taxes, cultural issues for evangelicals, IRS, Affordable Health Care Act, and both candidates on terrorism. ...

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NYT's Landon Thomas gives this exceptional report on how Deutsche Bank changed from a lender to the German auto industry and safe banking practices to enter the derivatives business and other opaque financial products that led to taking on huge risks. Deutsche Bank has agreed on Dec. 22, 2016 to settle with the U.S. Justice Department paying a fine of $7.2 billion for practices relating to faulty mortgage securities. This report says the problems started in 1995 with Deutsche Bank's leadership hiring Edson Mitchell of Merrill Lynch to promote the investment banking business at Deutsche Bank. Mitchell hired two derivatives traders Broeksmit and Anshu Jain. Mr. Mitchell died in plane crash in 2000 when he was 47 years age, Mr. Broeksmit committed suicide in 2014, 58 years in age, Mr. Anshu Jain, 53 years old, is the only surviving person of the three. Under Mr. Jain Deutsche Bank assumed more and more risk, and was involved in complex and opaque financial products leading to the toxic mortgage crisis, and manipulation of the lending rate for London banks.  It also lent $300 million to Donald Trump's businesses. Most of the profits generated from this venture have evaporated, with analysts estimating $15 billion in fines and penalties owed of the $20 billion that these ventures generated. Not counting the serious damage to the bank's reputation in Germany and the U.S. This report points out the role played by the CEO from 2002 to 2012 of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, in encouraging these ventures converting the bank from its original loan as a contintental lender to business to a bank selling opaque financial products for most of its profits. Landon Thomas also describes the events and days leading up to the suicide by Broeksmit, including a visit to a psychiatrist and Broeksmit's facing enormous stress about the investigations underway in Germany and the U.S. looking into the opaque financial products and practices of Deutsche Bank. This is also a cautionary tale about what happened in banking from the late 1990's leading to the collapse in 2008, leading to the problems of today- the need to rescue the economy in 2008-2009 and the low rate world that ensued damaging the savings of ordinary people, the infrastructure that was never built, the parallel crisis of the hollowing out in manufacturing as a false prosperity boomed in banking and finance. In a sense it is also a story of everyday lives that were damaged in the high flying boardrooms of finance in New York, London and Frankfurt. The revolving door between regulators and the banks made it harder to monitor and control banking risk letting this story unfold over decades, damaging the credibility of governments and the established political parties without clear alternatives from outside; as the dominance of Wall Street executives in the new outsider Trump administration shows.  ...

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The Guardian shows what J.D. Vance really thinks from his words in 2016 before his run for the US Senate depended on the backing of the former president. Most important are Vance's thoughts on whether the policies of Trump would work in a second term to meet the needs of Americans struggling to make a living. Like the yellow vest supporters before the pandemic in France, another burden was placed on ordinary Americans when the pandemic hit with the cost of living crisis. Vance did not think the economic policies of a Trump second term  would work in his thoughts expressed in 2016 before his run for the Senate.

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Adam Taylor explains what Brexit is about. What should be added is that Brexit is a child of the time in 2015-2016 when Angela Merkel was ill prepared to tackle the sudden wave of migrants from North Africa from wars and population growth outstripping what little progress was made, making decisions to let in close to a million migrants. Migrants are now being returned back to their home countries and the issue has faded. The austerity policies in the EU with Greece, Spain and Portugal as bad poster childs for the EU are also largely over, with economic recovery in Europe.  As a result confidence is growing in the future of the European Union. What pessimists including Mr. Trump saw as a breakup of the European Union is no longer the case. Britain's long negotiations and divisions for Brexit are now reinforcing an opposite conclusion- that it is beneficial to stay in the European Union. Fully 68% in a Eurobarometer Survey of 27 EU countries by the European Commission in March 2019 think so, only 17% think it is not beneficial. In Britain also a majority now support membership in the EU. The European Union and Britain have a lot to learn from this experience and the divisions generated, which is likely to be part of the acquired experience of a new generation of leaders.  ...

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Atul Aneja looks at Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's comments on the India- China relationship in March 2018.  The comments by Wang Yi show an extraordinary effort by the Foreign Minister to push for better relations. He raises the need for greater dialogue and "mutual trust" to improve the relations. Wang visited India in December during the period of tense relations and the post-Doklam meeting between prime minister Modi and president Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS meeting in Xiamen. India's Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale visited China in Feb. 2017. A China-India economic dialogue is planned for April, 2018, preceded by visits of Commerce Minister Zhong Shan and Guo Yezhou, Vice Minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China. Compared to the comments by both sides during the Doklam crisis there appears to be a significant change in policy. Wang refers to "more far-sighted leaders" who have realized the importance of the India- China relationship as that between the two largest developing countries each with a population of 1 billion.  In the context of events in early March with pressure from the Trump administration on trade with China- calling for China to come up with plans to reduce the trade surplus in 2018- and the growing influence of Mr. Lighthizer as a trusted advisor of president Trump and exit of Gary Cohn, this could be a strategic move.   ...

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Following president Trump's decision to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods on May 9, 2019, the WSJ looks at the mistakes made by both sides in misjudging each other's negotiating position. Mr. Trump says he is willing to increase the pressure on China by imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports into the U.S. after what he sees as China reneging on its commitments on trade by deleting key sections on enforcement provisions and Chinese legislation for enforcement to take place in the 150 page agreement prepared for both presidents to sign.  Early on in the negotiations between Liu He and Mr. Lighthizer, China misread the thinking on the U.S. side. Chinese thinking was that president Trump's urging for the Federal Reserve to lower rates was a perception sign of the weakening U.S. economy. It also may have misread the extent to which Mr. Trump trusts Mr. Robert Lighthizer, who Mr. Trump respects for winning a good deal with the Japanese in similar situation of Japanese rejection of U.S. demands. Mr. Trump also thinks the U.S. has a strong economy, is the largest world producer of oil, strong economic growth in the last quarter of 2018, is also negotiating better deals with other countries including the ones with Mexico, Canada and South Korea. It is also much less dependent on exports to China, giving it a stronger position with more experienced negotiators. China has whole sectors of its economy dependent on exports to the U.S., and crucial numbers of jobs at stake.  China also misread the signals from its stronger than expected economic growth from stimulus efforts in the last quarter, leading to it staking out a tougher position than the U.S. would accept. The U.S. position was set after decades of waiting for China to change and was unlikely to be affected by any temporary considerations.  As a result the U.S. not anticipating the Chinese response of deleting key sections agreed to in advance from the 150 page written agreement gave a strong response. Mr. Mnuchin who accompanied Lighthizer in talks says Mr. Lighthizer "read them the riot act" to the Chinese side. For the Chinese side the effort now shifted to continuing good faith talks without appearing to back down. ...

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A recent poll shows Mr. Trump increasing his support from a bloc of voters that disapprove of his job performance but still give credit to Mr. Trump for an improving economy. A new WSJ/NBC poll shows 51% of Americans disapprove of his overall job performance, with 46% approving. The same percentage that say they disapprove of job performance are also saying they give him credit for a stronger economy up from the 44% in April 2017 who said they approved his way of handling the economy. Wages have increased 3.2%  in each of the last 2 months and unemployment is at an historic low over 50 years. One group that has a 10 point gap when it comes to the economic performance is among Independents, where 38% approve of Mr. Trump but 48% approve his economic performance. A big jump is among Hispanics who have benefited greatly with new jobs in construction and other areas of the economy. Trump's 46% approval rating in May 2019 is among the highest he has achieved, rising 3 points since the last identical poll in March 2019. About 29% still think the Mueller Report clears Mr. Trump of wrongdoing as they did in March. Still things can change as 42% believe the Mueller Report does not clear Mr. Trump of wrongdoing, and another 29% haven't made up their mind. On impeachment hearings about 48% think Congress should let Mr. Trump finish out his term, 49% think there is either enough evidence or Congress should continue investigating with an eye to future impeachment hearings. The survey margin of error is about 4 percentage points, covers 900 adults.  ...

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The EU with its $15.4 trillion economy is a bloc comparable in size to the U.S. $19.4 trillion economy. The French State Secretary for Europe, Mr. Lemoyne, says EU does not need to be worried about the way the USMCA, new version of NAFTA was negotiated with pressure from president Trump, as the Europeans are the largest trading power in the world. The EU exports to the U.S. are $252 billion, and up 5% in the seven months of 2018 over the preceding period. The U.S. by comparison exports $153 billion which has remained at the same level with a $600 million decline in the same period in 2018.  President Trump has put pressure on the EU to help improve the trade imbalance. Soya bean exports are pointed to by the EU as this has doubled in 2018, after China responded to U.S. sanctions by limiting soyabean imports. President Trump has stated his intention to impose tariffs on European car imports - trade worth $60 billion- to get the EU to offer concessions.  ...

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Fausset of the NYT looks at a rust belt city in the U.S. midwest that has suffered as U.S. manufacturing declined. Much of the decline happened in the 1980's in the steel industry in competition with Japanese imports. North of town there is a GM plant that makes the Chevy Cruze. The unemployment rate of 17% in 2010 has dropped to 7.6%. Fausset describes the life of a retired steel worker on state pension who works in law enforcement. He is Joe Marshall Jr. from the song by Bruce Springsteen about a steel worker who the singer read about in a book. Youngstown appears to be divided by people who support Trump and Clinton.

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House Speaker Paul Ryan's "Confident America" campaign in 2016 aims to reassure the Republican base and build support for Congressional Republicans as the Trump movement disrupts the Republican Party.