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British Labour party leader says any Brexit deal should be put to a referendum. Earlier many Labour party members supported a second referendum with Mr. Corbyn yet to make a clear stand. During the local elections and the elections to European parliament the Labour party had losses to parties that favored canceling Brexit, including the Liberal Democrats. Corbyn said: "Let the people decide the country's future, either in a general election or through a public vote on any Brexit deal agreed by Parliament." He made these remarks ahead of a meeting with the prime minister of Ireland.  A poll conducted by Panelbase shows  a second referendum on Brexit would get 52% for Remain in the EU and 45% for Leave the EU compared to 52% for Leave and 48% voting Remain in the 2016 referendum. Parliament has to vote for a second referendum for it to take place. The Liberal Democrats made large gains in the recent European elections on the mandate to hold a second referendum, including in Mr. Corbyn's North London area.  If Mr. Boris Johnson succeeds Theresa May as prime minister the Conservative Party faces even more hurdles. European Union is even less likely to negotiate a deal with Mr. Johnson. A withdrawal from the EU without a negotiated agreement favored by Mr. Johnson is unlikely to get support in parliament as it has repeatedly blocked such a move. The alternative is fresh elections not favored by Conservative Party as it is losing credibility, or a second referendum. Alternative also is fresh elections followed by a second referendum by the winning party.   ...

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Britain's prime minister Theresa May finally spells out some of the costs to Britain's economy in following Brexit and leaving the European Union. The EU's Barnier made it clear that Britain would not be able to choose what it wants out of the negotiations. As May put is "there will be consequences for our market access."  So far May preferred ambiguity so that she could reconcile the conflicting factions in her Conservative party. The Labor Party in the Opposition and the EU have called for clarity on the issue of Northern Ireland, with the EU saying Northern Ireland would remain part of the EU customs union, and the Labor Party's Corbyn saying the fragile Ireland peace accords must be preserved and Ireland should have an open border. May did not clarify on the Irish issue. However her new remarks clarified that much of what exists today in cooperation inside the EU would be preserved to minimize negative consequences of Brexit, and Britain would also continue to be affected by the decisions of the European Court of Justice. Barnier says he welcomes May's explicit recognition for the first time of the tradeoffs involved in doing Brexit, something the pro-Brexit faction within the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson has tried to ignore. Experts including Bank of England governor Mark Carney have stated that Brexit will leave Britain's economy poorer.   ...

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The Times takes a good look at Liz Truss, who she is, what are her good points and areas she will need to work on. It says Truss was ignored by Conservatives including Theresa May after  being brought in by Cameron as Environment Secretary in 2014. She comes from a intellectual family with her father a Math professor and her education at Merton College, Oxford University. She also had the opportunity to build on her economics and accounting background at Treasury, and at the Ministry of International Trade where she signed a number of trade deals for Britain.  What has changed her was her decision to learn and develop on her own after being ignored in the Conservative party. She shifted from Remain to becoming an aggressive supporter of Brexit and coming out decisively for Boris Johnson as prime minister.  She is willing to challenge the Treasury and others in the civil service when she feels she needs to. Her challenge says The Times is to develop the skills that are needed to work with others and take the country forward. One advantage she has is that she has confidence in her own experience and education to have strong personalities work in her team. Another quality that helps her is that she is not ideologically a conservative, so that she is willing to try new ideas to get the economy working and move Britain forward. And adding to that she has the depth that Cameron and Johnson lacked with her experience gained in parliament, at Treasury, in the International Trade ministry, and recently as Foreign Secretary. She may well be the underestimated candidate compared to a mostly predictable Sunak. ...

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Britain staged a rehearsal for a pandemic called Cygnus in 2016. Till that time the preparations for a pandemic that started years earlier during the SARS crisis were conducted vigorously. Yet the by this time Britain was becoming immersed in the Brexit struggles in the ruling Conservative Party. Prime minister Cameron resigned on July 13, 2016  and was replaced by Theresa May. From that time on the struggles with pro Brexit factions led by Boris Johnson consumed the COnservative Party and sucked the life out of the pandemic planning that Britain had conducted for years before. The recommendations to correct deficiencies from the pandemic rehearsal exercize were ignored. The second failure happened as the crisis approached. Again the Brexit date of January 31 intervened and the months long struggle to get Brexit had taken so much energy and tired out most of the British public including new prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party Boris Johnson. Johnson did not attend the first Cobra meeting of the highest level ministers and military, convened on January 25, 2020, as reported in the Times. Such meeting are convened only for a national threat. Only 5 weeks later on March 2 did the prime minister attend a Cobra meeting. During this time the situation was grave in Italy with rising cases and infections. The entire process was conducted during this time by the Health minister Mr. Hancock who had assured the public that the situation was under control. Britain now has the highest number of infections in Europe exceeding that in Italy- at 240,000 on May 15, 2020. The prime minister and his adviser Mr. Cummings, were also infected by the virus, and Mr. Johnson spent time in ICU before recovering. Queen Elizabeth addressed the nation on Easter day, the first such address since 1940, to boost Briain's spirits. Never had Britain been less prepared as in 2020 when earlier preparations were ditched for austerity plans and events such as Brexit fatigue conspired to strip the nation of the crucial 5-6 weeks of preparation since the first January 25 Cobra meeting of the highest people in government.  Never had such preparation even for 6 weeks been more crucial than in February and March as the infectivity ratio was determined by infectious disease specialists at the best British universities and scientific institutions to be between 2.6 and 3.4 compared to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 which was somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0. This means every one person infects another 3 persons, compared to about 1 person in a regular flu season. This reproduction ratio and the nature of coronavirus remain a threat today as Britain, Europe, the U.S. and the world reopens.  As reported in the Times the infectivity ratio was also the reason for the mindset that refused to believe that the virus was real because at 3.0 infectivity the only way to tackle it was a "lockdown," and this was itself an "apocalypse" scenario for many in the pro-Brexit Conservative party that won the election, which badly wanted to get back to economic activity after Brexit. ...

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Laurence Peter of the BBC News describes a meeting of EU leaders in December 2016. The new Europa building with its space egg shape will be the location of the next summit in 2016, adding to a sense of history that the EU idea has witnessed since the 1950's, even optimism about far it has come at a time of a few setbacks.  He points out that Theresa May was not without persons to talk to at the meeting, though some video clips showed her looking lonely. EU president Martin Schulz said he was emotional seeing students crying after the Brexit vote, but that it was time to find solutions and not be emotional today. Lunch was offered at the meeting by Spain and Portugal, to mark the 30 years since they joined. People forget how much the European Community meant to the two countries after decades of suffering under fascist dictatorships- it meant new hope and an opportunity to set things right. Problems facing the EU today include, the frustration at the carnage in Aleppo, Syria, how to deal with Britain and Brexit, setting up an asylum system that will work, dealing with Ukraine and Russia without making the situation worse, and remaining concerns about the Greece debt crisis. ...

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Ivan Rogers, UK ambassador to the European Union for three years till 2017 was sharply critical of the British government and forecast some of the Brexit problems. He has a book "9 Lessons in Brexit," which appeared in Feb. 2019. Here he is interviewed by Der Spiegel. He says he expected some of the problems but is still surprised that 4 weeks before the deadline the political class in Britain has not yet figured out what kind of Brexit they want. Here he points out that Cameron and Blair represented the centre in British politics. But that centre has now collapsed after the financial crisis and the period of austerity led to widening gaps between the different parts of British society. The public is now deeply alienated from both major parties. In both parties the populists on the left and the right have gained a bigger influence, as a result there are no centre right or centre left figures who command public influence. Rogers is a civil servant of high rank who has worked with several prime ministers including Blair and Cameron. His comments are worth listening to.  Was Theresa May the right person to tackle Brexit? Her problem says ROgers is that she started with a hardline position of reducing the number of people entering the UK from inside or outside the EU. Once you do this you cannot have free movement of goods, services and capital, so you have to leave the single market. And if Britain wanted a fully autonomous trade policy then it cannot stay in the customs union. Rogers thinks Theresa May never really understood what this meant- that it was going much further out of the European Union than Norway or Switzerland, or even Turkey. Now as she is trying to go back her right wing cries betrayal. Do British prime ministers understand the single market, the customs union, or how the EU really works? Rogers worked on European issues for a long time and he says after working very closely with British prime ministers that none of them had a deep understanding of how the European Union works. Plus they lack any emotional attachment to the EU, because of the mercantile relationship Britain has had with its neighbors. About the relationships in Europe between the Germans, the French, the British, what is it and what will it be like? Rogers says he has not seen a thinner relationship in his lifetime. He thinks the European political elites are not talking to each other anything like what was done 20 or 30 years ago. He says the Brits have to take a lot of the responsibility because the British political class lost interest in Europe. What could the Europeans have done? Rogers says the chaos continues because the British don't really know where they want to go. It opaque about the relationship on purpose. Have the Europeans thought about what kind of a continent they want to see after all this is over? This interview tells you more about the Brexit problem that many reports and opinions, bringing a thoughtful way of looking at the problem. ...

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Even though Brexit is seen as bad for the British economy from a a loss of trade with the EU of as much as 40% and the gains from Brexit that were expected from free trade deals and deregulation too small or illusory, the pro Brexiters soldier on unswayed by this. Prime minister Theresa May is seen as being able to take this deal with the EU through parliament in a second vote after losing the first vote. Behind this thinking are thoughts about how the opposition under Labour and gains made by Labour in a future election could bring together disparate parts of the Conservative party to get this through parliament. The abolishing of free movement between the EU and Britain, is cited as a gain from Brexit. Yet it is this loss of free movement and losses in trade with the EU that are expected to lead to a loss of 3% in GDP per head for every British person, making ordinary British people poorer. In the absence of a Brexit vote Britons would have an additional 2% of GDP per head, according to the Centre for European Reform, a think tank.    ...

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After years of austerity policies from the Conservative Party, Britain is looking at new ideas to reorganize the economy and society. The 40% of the British vote taken by the Labour Party has given new impetus to think tanks looking at ways to reshape the British economy and society in coming decades. At issue are the effects of austerity in increasing poverty, rising inequality, and fewer protections for working class people.  The new think tanks include Common Wealth which aims at making changes to British business to provide more representation for labour and provide share of ownership to workers in an enterprise. Common Wealth came up with the ideas and policy for the Labour Party's plan to give 10% of ownership equity in large companies to worker owned funds. Mr McDonnell, chief economic policy maker of the Labour Party, has suggested a trial of a universal basic income, which has led to policy ideas and economic framework development from think tanks. A key idea is to frame how these new ideas can be implemented under a future Labour government, now that there is public disillusionment with the Tories under Theresa May.  ...

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The European Union response to Britain's decision to begin negotiations to leave the EU is a tough one that presents serious problems for Britain. EU Council president, Donald Tusk said that no talks on Britain's future trading relationship with the EU could take place till all the issues relating to Britain leaving have been resolved. Included is a bill of 60 billion euros, according to European authorites, for settling British committments in the EU. Tusk also said the EU wanted to see the rights of the 3 million EU citizens living in the EU, and the 1 million British citizens in the EU protected as a priority in negotiations. Without negotiations on a future trading relationship Britain faces tariffs and duties putting it at a disadvantage after the exit. Talks also cannot extend beyond March 2019 or new approval is needed from 27 EU states. The European parliament also has veto rights if the agreement is not seen as strong enough for the EU. Tusk says that Brexit has made the EU more united. Chancellor Merkel of Gemany has also separated exit from future trading relationship negotiations, the second only being discussed after the first is complete. The issue of Scottish independence also hangs in the balance, as the Scottish parliamentary leader Jack Salmond refused to accept prime minister May's point that her own constituency Islington had voted against Brexit yet she was negotiating for the whole of UK- Salmond responded in parliament that not taking Scotland's interests into account after it had voted against Brexit made "Scottish independence inevitable." The EU leaders are taking a calmer approach, in contrast to the more nationalist appeal in parliament to Tory back benches of prime minister May with promises she may have difficulty keeping.   ...

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The Economist magazine says Mr. Trump's claim that he could fix things because he is an outsider is now quickly proving to be false. The lack of experience works against the Trump administration as it stumbles from one crisis to another. The tweets that were used to turn voter sentiment against opponents now work the other way. There are other problems that are noted here but not emphasized to the extent they need to be. Mr. Trump, as Peggy Noonan, a Reagan aide, has pointed out in the WSJ, risks alienating the very blue collar vote, and older voters whose interests he claimed to defend. This happened with the Ryan Republican House health care bill as millions of poor Americans approaching retirement were one of the worst affected groups. The Economist points out that the next project to tackle tax reform has the same possible consequences for the Trump blue collar base, as it says Republican plans for tax reform are seen as regressive. Tax reform has eluded previous administrations, and requires more experience in building coalitions which the Trump administration lacks in its confrontational attitude towards Congressmen on both sides of the aisle who disagree with him. Improving the U.S. trade position, infrastructure investment are other areas that the administration plans to tackle, yet the first 100 days show that the lack of experience and the lack of a calm composed mind is hurting the Trump administration, to the point of policies that hurt the very voters who put their faith in the Trump administration to improve things. A similar process is unfolding in Britain as it faces a Brexit negotiation that the Economist points out has been badly handled by prime minister Theresa May, and could lead to worsening the economy if no deal is reached because the European Union sees that it is not in its interest to do so, and Ms. May realizes only later that she has taken nationalist sentiment a bit too far for a European economic arrangement to work and provide mutual benefit. A continent wide economic arrangement that it was the wisdom of past leaders from Britain, France and Germany to support for over six decades is not easily undone by one vote, or one government. ...

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A look at the role that David Cameron played in the Brexit vote. Cameron did this by promising to hold a referendum to assuage hard line Tories within his Conservative Party in Britain who feared that the right wing Independence Party of Nigel Farage would cut into the Tory vote and hand the 2015 election over to the Labour Party. Cameron made the pledge in 2013. The Brexit vote referendum happened in June 2016 with a slight margin for the "Leave" vote as voters shifted to an anti-establishment vote, and a wave of immigration from Africa and Arab countries in conflicts into Europe created fears of uncontrolled immigration. Both were factors that had little to do with Britain's place in Europe over decades in post war Europe, and not permanent shifts in sentiment. Cameron agreed because he thought the would lead to a result favoring the Remain Vote to stay in the European Union. Cameron badly miscalculated leading to the mess Britain is in today with no clear path forward and negative effects on the economy of Britain. The Labour Party now favors a second referendum as voter sentiment again shifts following the failure of the Theresa May Conservative government to lead in the way forward, and splits in the Conservative Party. Immigration from Arab countries and Africa is now restricted and down to a small trickle. The problems generated by Brexit for the economy, Northern Ireland, business uncertainty, and second thoughts among pro-Brexit supporters, are leading to a rethink of the course set by the referendum based on a temporary shift in sentiment. ...

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Statements made by Boris Johnson, the new Foreign Secretary of Britain, and former Mayor of London, have gained wide attention in the media.  He has made controversial statements about Obama, Putin, Hillary Clinton, the European Union and written a poem on Turkey's president Erdogan for The Spectator. Theresa May, Britain's new prime minister, is described as making an astute move by making Boris Johnson the Foreign Secretary, as this keeps him  away from the Brexit negotiations, while at the same time including a leader of the Leave campaign in the cabinet.  Foreign ministers of Sweden and France expressed dismay after learning of his appointment. Johnson said of Obama that he was motivated by an anti-imperialist agenda because of "an ancestral dislike of the British Empire," following Obama's recent visit to Britain. Obama's grandfather was a Kenyan porter in British run Kenya. On Trump he says " he is clearly out of his mind," about some of Trump's comments on Muslims. He has apologized for comments on Hillary Clinton. He is in person quite different say people who know him. As Mayor of London he remained popular and helped host the Olympic games in 2012, and setup the city's bike sharing program. He is a prolific author, journalist, and a contributor to the The Telegraph newspaper, with fees of 275,000 pounds a year. ...

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Cygnus is the rehearsal for a full blown pandemic that the British government conducted in 2016. After preparations accelerated following the SARS crisis in 2009 and the H1N1 pandemic in 2015, the British government accelerated its preparations for H2N2 the next pandemic. The exercize took place in October 2016 for 3 days, for a worst case scenario flu pandemic affecting 50% of the population and causing 400,000 extra deaths. For 3 days people were told to imagine being in the 7th week of the pandemic, facing peaks in demand for health and hospital care. Cobra meetings were to be held. This report in the Guardian gives details on the Cygnus exercize. It showed a lack of UK readiness.  By July 2016 prime minister Cameron was replaced by Theresa May in the Conservative Party and a full blown crisis emerged for Brexit. Britain lost interest in Cygnus or the pandemic prevention effort as Brexit consumed Britain's energies. Soon it was forgotten by the time Boris Johnson became prime minister and won the Brexit election. This shows how even a sincere effort and preparation over years of planning can result in nothing. This also happened in France. See France 24's coverage of this and our groups and links on this. One insight was that while every agency acted there was no coordinated response with someone in the central authority guiding the entire effort step by step. Care homes entirely privately run were also identified as a concern and anticipated significant pressures because of staff absenteeism at these social care centres in a pandemic, as reported in the Guardian ...

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Keir Starmeir, a human rights lawyer for 20 years, heads the Labour Party negotiating team in negotiations with Theresa May for a cross-party Brexit deal. He says about 150 Labour MP's would reject a Brexit deal that is lacking a confirmatory second referendum on Brexit. He also said Labour risks losing Remain voters tempted to vote for the Liberal Democrats or Change UK. Starmier said it is time to call time on the cross party talks in a few days.

Recalling his days as a human rights lawyers Starmier says he never thought he would be defending those values of society which were considered part of British society. Starmier says this battle for values is much bigger than one political party.

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This view in the Economist shows that president Trump actually represented the instincts of the Republican party base by 2018- anti-immigrant, anti-elitist, and to the right on social issues. As a result it says it is no surprise that he has taken over the Republican party. As the elections for Congress get closer most candidates are trying to get Trump's support and many of the older senators and Congressman from the earlier period of the party are retiring. It cites polls showing Trump has support of 85% of the Republican party base. In 2018 Mr. Trump appointed new members of his cabinet who more closely represented his views on China, Iran, NATO, and business issues. Remaining party leaders such as Mr. Romney running for Senate seat from Utah are now seeking and getting Trump's endorsement. The Republican National Committee is also run by Trump supporters. On issues of foreign affairs Trump has combined alternate shifts between demands and pragmatism in relations with China, Iran, and other countries on trade, politics, coming up with a new way international relations are tackled. Part of the reason for their appeal is the nature of the intractable problems such as the imbalances in trade, nuclear weapons, and the idea that an alternative approach might work when other approaches have failed.  On social issues such as issues facing workers in globalization and free trade the parties to the left in the U.S. and countries in western Europe have failed to deliver, leading to the appeal of Mr. Trump, Brexiters, National Front in France.  The immigration issue has also worked against the socialist parties.  In Britain dissatisfaction with Theresa May and hard core Brexiters is growing, leading to Labor Party getting 40% of the vote in the recent election. Suggesting that the changes induced by the Brexiters and the Trump administration may lead to other changes in the future that may shift the focus back to basic issues and delivery on infrastructure, health and education which are fundamental for the future.   ...

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Prime minister Johnson of Britain is calling for a general election on December 12. This will be debated in parliament on October 28, and is expected to be rejected a third time. Mr. Johnson faces opposition from the Labour Party which wants to delay the election till it is certain that there is no Brexit without an acceptable deal with the European Union. Mr. Johnson heads a minority government that depends on the support of the Democratic Unionist party, the DUP, of Ireland. He also dismissed 23 Conservative rebel MP's from the Conservative Party headed by Mr. Hammond, a former finance minister under Theresa May who are leery of Mr. Johnson's willingness to go with a no-deal Brexit, if parliament does not back him. This puts Mr. Johnson 45 votes short of a majority in parliament. The new deal Mr. Johnson negotiated with the EU was done with concessions on Ireland and an open border, which was rejected by the Unionist party of Ireland. This deal passed in parliament but was rejected on its short timetable of less than a week giving MP's little time to look at the details.  The Labour party is also divided on going into an election before it is ready because it is behind by 10 points in the polls.  The reason the Johnson deal was initially passed in parliament was because 18 Labour MP's decided to support it pursuing a strategy of getting it rejected by passing amendments during final passage.    ...

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The only way the Conservatives can form a majority to govern in Britain is by getting the support of the Democratic Unionist Party with its 10 seats, and this would still give Conservatives 328 seats in parliament, with 326 required for a majority. This very thin 3 seat majority could lead to a fall of the government if a couple of Conservative party members defected. Here Davies points out that though the Democratic Unionist party supports Brexit it is of a very different nature. The party is based in Ireland and originated with Rev. Ian Paisley. With its Irish roots it wants free movement of goods and people across the border with Ireland which is an EU member, access to EU funding and protection for farmers. Ireland has shown serious concern about the Brexit vote, and Northern Ireland voters voted against Brexit 56% to 44% for Brexit. This open border and EU support is close to what is currently in place. As Davies points out this puts the whole Brexit negotiating process in doubt, with no coherent position for Britain at all, leading to a collapse of the talks and no deal with the European Union. Another reason the doubts about Brexit are likely to grow is that a large part of the UK Independence Party support has disappeared, with UKIP getting 1.8% of the vote compared to about 11% in 2015 election. The combined vote of the parties that see Brexit as a priority for Britain was in fact about 45.1%, combining Conservatives 42.4%, Democratic Unionist 0.9% and UKIP 1.8%. The parties that did not see Brexit as a priority for Britain won over 50% of the vote this time- Labor 40.0%, Scottish National party 3.0%, Liberal Democrats 7.4%, according to BBC. Davies says the increasing uncertainty is bad for the British economy. In coming months doubts are likely to grow about whether the referendum was a priority for Britain, and how this is a distraction from the other serious issues facing the British economy to ensure a better future. ...

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Shamil Shams interview with Shakuntala Banaji, expert on media and communication at the London School of Economics, on the general election in Britain. Banaji says there has been persistent negative coverage given to Jeremy Corbyn of the Labor Party for the last two years. A lot of hard work has been done by Labor MP's, Labor activists, volunteers, to get the Labor message across. Corbyn is seen as giving a calm composed performance in the face of hostile media and audience, including the televised interview in which he talked of real issues facing ordinary British people. One of the ways Corbyn has softened the media distorted image of him is by acting calmly under pressure and not taking on an autocratic style. This was best seen on the day he first handed out the Labor party manifesto with the focus on the message- for the many, not the few. Some of the coverage of Corbyn is described here as being improper and unacceptable.