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A Trump-Vance nomination with its huge tariffs inside a Republican shell with its preference for tax cuts is with a large degree of certainty likely to put America further behind China, slipping even further by a decade. And slipping in renewable energy and in meeting the aspirations of ordinary Americans. Most of the public does not realize that Trump-Vance 60% tariffs and Republican preference for tax cuts over infrastructure spending would create inflation and lack of growth in a Trump-Vance second term. Things would get worse because of the contradictions existing in the choice of tariff preferring Trump in a Republican party that sees tax cuts not infrastructure spending -even when desperately needed- as the answer to every economic problem. Without a clear policy of making the trillion dollar investments in the US economy, in manufacturing, in renewable energy, in chips and science, as it has under Biden the US under Trump-Vance policies would have two serious problems- first it would revive inflation. 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 10% tariffs on other nations proposed by Trump-Vance would increase inflation. In the absence of the infrastructure investment that Biden has put in place it would create both a lack of growth for the jobs missing that come from infrastructure that is badly needed in a aging dilapidated infrastructure economy, and the inflation that the high tariffs would engineer. The benefits would not be great if China chooses to find other ways to conduct business and continues to keep its currency at levels that promote its exports. Even today Chinese products enter the US through other countries or when China builds factories in the US as Japan has done. The Republican aversion to tackling Chinese industrial challenges in the same way that China does by actively supporting American manufacturers would give China another decade of advantage as America slips even further behind in chips, science and manufacturing. This is the real problem in mixing Trump-Vance to the Republican philosophies on the economy which are not right for this point in time whatever their merits may have been in the 1980's when America was the industrial leader in the world.   ...

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DW.com sees the choice of Timothy Kaine for Democratic vice presidential nominee as a safe choice, with no effort to mobilize the base activated by Bernie Sanders using a choice from that segment of the party. Both Hillary Clinton and Timothy Kaine come from the moderate wing of the party. This is likely to help Hillary Clinton in the swing state of Virginia. Kaine's choice may also be a way to balance the more serious Clinton with the sunnier disposition and campaigning energy of Kaine. To bring a different set of campaigning skills from Kaine- conveying a positive message for Democrats on how they could help the middle and working class, and appeal to independent undecided voters.

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Patience and remaining undeterred with SPD at 15% just months before the election helped SPD'S Scholz to win. There was also a carefully planned campaign around Scholz, unity in the SPD behind Scholz. Scholz and SPD realized that there was a major opportunity to win confidence of Germans in the pandemic aid packages for Germany and the European Union that Scholz put together. Scholz took charge chairing meetings when Merkel was in isolation. In this way he not the outgoing chancellor Merkel was seen as the architect of economic recovery from the blow of the pandemic.  Percentages are deceiving including the drop to 15% for SPD. Scholz pointed to public fatigue with the two major parties and need for change had led to shift to Greens, and other parties. By working with Greens to develop a common approach based on borrowing to invest in infrastructure and climate change Scholz realized he could both tap into skills of a younger generation that had gone to the Greens and build Germany along lines that also tackled climate change. This created a new and real option for Germany- the experience and new zeal for workers and families of the changing SPD under Esken and Scholz with the energy and zeal for tackling climate change of the Greens under Habeck and Baerbock. As a map of Germany in the NYT shows on September 28, the numbers can be deceiving. Except for Bavaria in the south most of Germany's regions including cities of Cologne, Berlin, Hamburg voted for the SPD or the Greens. Most of the map is red color of the SPD, with small densely populated pockets in cities Cologne and Berlin for Greens. Apart from Bavaria and Thuringia-Saxony, the election was won by Greens SPD by big margin. ...

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Questions abound about Steven Chu, is he a scientist who handled administrative positions, like being vice chairman of the Physics department at Stanford, and head of the Berkeley Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, with its $600 million budget and 400 staff? Or is he something more with the stuff to get things done to remake the way America makes and uses energy? Because running the Energy Department means running a place with 114,000 employees and a budget that has doubled under the Obama administration. And he has to disperse $39 billion in Stimulus money without it being wasted. And the priorities are just as big and important- ending America's dependence on fossil fuels, rebuilding the nation's electrical grid, and addressing climate change. WIth so much to be done, answering questions in Congress and handling the media may not be the hardest part, even though its the stuff that he likes the least. Its making things happen with the right investments in place for the new technologies that would help break the dependence on fossil fuels, and address climate change. Right now he has no Deputy secretary. He has brought in Matt Rogers an energy expert at McKinsey & Company. Matt and Chu's brother Morgan provide insights into his character. Says Matt Chu is kind and nice but he is not patient. He likes to see things move muuch quicker than things are done around the Energy Department. Chu himself talks about this. He says the bureaucracy in Washington is a place where Newton's law of motion does not work. Once things are set in motion you have to apply force or the bureaucratic atmosphere gets it derailed and it stops. His brother Morgan points to Chu's inclination to challenge established dogma. ...

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The US sees no contradiction to India looking for bargain priced oil from Russia to meet the growing needs of its economy and is actually furthering the goals of the G-7 by lowering the price Russia gets for its oil. It helps the economy of 1.2 billion people that like the rest of the world has struggled to fight the pandemic and has incurred the kind of heath costs that even China is now struggling to pay for. President Biden clearly understands and supports this. Democracies an only succeed if they fulfill the aspirations of their people. On this point Biden made clear in his State of the Union that he will generate what it takes from large corporations that paid no tax, to invest in America. Rather than fuel the profits of large oil companies India has increasingly chosen to use Russian discounted oil to invest in India. The Biden and Modi policies are identical generate savings and invest big time in trillions of dollars over the next few years to put democracies ahead in meeting rising aspirations that have been unfulfilled for far too long, which is where the real battles are being fought and will be won, and rightly so. US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources, Geoffrey Pyatt,  said during a visit to New Delhi on Feb. 16-17- "Our experts now assess that India right now is enjoying a discount of about USD 15 a barrel in the price that it is paying for its imports of Russian crude. So by acting in its own interest, by driving a hard bargain to get the lowest price possible, India is furthering the policy of our G7 coalition, our G7 plus partners in seeking to reduce Russian revenues."  Looking at the bigger picture the problem was created by Germany under Merkel who built Germany's over dependency on Russian oil to power a cheap fuel economy it thought was in Germany's interest. This is now being reversed by the hard work of Mr. Habeck of the Green party in the coalition government of Scholz in securing alternative supplies in record time for the EU to avoid a recession. In this sense the perception created early of India which has suffered itself from invasions in 1962 and incursions in the Himalayas more recently, it is not a problem India can solve by becoming energy short at a time when it has invested so much in fighting the pandemic. A similar problem was created by Republican and Democratic administrations of the past that concentrated the supply chain in one country. India lost much investment in the last 8 years as a result of the policies of Merkel's Germany and past Republican Democratic administrations in concentrating the supply chain in one country. ...

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Chevron CEO John Watson says the U.S. needs more affordable energy, and this means it needs to find more fossil fuels. It needs more oil gas and coal. He says the U.S. should take advantage of its own fossil fuel resources. People want strong environmental standards, but as Watson puts it, their top most priority is affordable energy which creates economic growth and jobs. He criticizes the Obama administration for not pushing ahead with developing of U.S. offshore oil, because BP's problems were not systemic and industry wide. He calls for dramatically increasing U.S. oil production, and doing this immediately. Worldwide Chevron plans to invest $26 billion for its exploration budget, and plans to drill in Australia, Western Africa, Gulf of Thailand and other locations. Watson points out that the dynamics of oil production are affected by two factors, price and technology. With current prices at over $100 a barrel more oil is accessible. At these prices new technologies can make it possible to use existing older wells to increase production. He cites the example of Bakersfield, where steam flooding is helping get 70 to 80 barrels out of every 100 barrels in the ground, when in the past Chevron could only get 10-20 barrels of oil. Another technology he mentions is hydrofracking for producing large and cheap supplies of natural gas. Chevron acquired Atlas Energy for $3.2 billion in 2010 to enter this market. Watson's overall emphasis is on the U.S. going for affordable energy and affordable conservation that will create economic growth and a better future....

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The World bank president Robert Zoellick in an interview with Sudeep Reddy of the Wall Street Journal. He says its frustrating to see Europe respond to problems in banking, sovereign debt and competitiveness that have a chance to work, but only to find that the action is a bit late and a bit short every time. He says the Germans are right in insisting that credit cannot be given away freely, and that reforms have to be made. Yet these reforms in the case of Spain and Italy to increase competitiveness will take time and in the meantime both countries will need bridge financing. A direct recapitalization of European banks by the European Financial Stability Facility is needed to avoid this slow and continuous decline in confidence from negative news and uncertainty. Because the problem now is of a longer term nature with debt issues that will take time to resolve and energy price volatility, Zoellick says simply doing short term stimulus and monetary will not work, and a longer term plan needs to be implemented. Zoellick supported the China Development Report of the World Bank and China's DRC which called for a shift in the economy away from reliance on state owned companies and heavy infrastructure spending. Here he says the new stimulus plan for China was necessary because of slowing growth. Yet he hopes China's leaders keep this in mind as they develop solutions for the long term that avoid the rampant credit expansion and investment of the 2008 Stimulus, and come up with a new policy mix....

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Labour's executive director of Policy from 2020 to 2022, says steps easy to understand and grasp, and which can be effectively implemented to deliver are needed for Labour party to win confidence of the British people. Claire Ainsley says Australia is doing this under Mr. Albanese. Mr. Scholz is doing this in Germany. "Keir Starmer's embrace of a mission driven approach to government provides opportunity to tackle the root causes of stagnating wages and volatile costs." "Whether this tentative revival can be turned into durable majorities will rest on whether we can deliver on the change that people are crying out for. If voters give the centre left a chance to be in government again, then the changes Labour instigates must make a difference in people's lives." She says centre left governments in the US, Germany, Australia offer a role model of how action can be taken to improve the lives of workers and families. Other centre left governments in Canada, Spain, are striving to do this also. To make simple to understand and quantify pledges to the people and deliver on them step by concrete step. A similar approach is taken in India and in states in India. Germany is an example. Ainsley says Germany made 4 simple pledges to back its bigger visions. Solid delivery on wages, pensions cost of living support, energy, and public services. ...

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Inflation is receding as an issue in the 2024 elections as the CPI index dropped below 3% in July as reported by the Labor Department. It was 2.9% lowest since 2021. Greg Ip says when Trump is saying bacon costs 5 times more now he needs to find another supermarket. That is the joke as Trump is really getting ripped off. Ip says bacon prices are up 18% since 2020 when Biden took office. Trump says at rallies grocery prices are up 70%, Ip says fact correction -up 21% since January 2021 not 70%. Trump says gas prices are $5.00 a gallon. Fact correction- gas prices are $3.75 a gallon and falling, says Ip. Trump wildly exaggerates. Trump says he will cut energy and electricity prices by 50% in 12-18 months. His answer "Drill Baby Drill." Experts cited by Greg Ip say even if new offshore and onshore leases are given, increase in supply is marginal and years away. Gas prices are determined by the world price determined by OPEC and Russia, says Ip.  Trump will increase inflation says this report because of tariffs he plans of 60% on imports from China and 10% from other places. That would increase inflation by 1.4 to 1.7% say analysts. Greg Ip of WSJ offers more clues. Inflation linked bonds see inflation dropping to 2.2% in 2025 instead of 2.6% predicted earlier. Jerome Powell at the US central bank the Fed and president Biden hav done their job well and are not letting up, continue to work on it diligently every day. ...

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WSJ Lingling Wei's interview with Ding Xuedong, chairman of China Investment Corporation on its plans and strategies for 2015-2016, and future years. China's government formed CIC in 2007 to improve the returns on its foreign exchange reserves, estimated at $3.8 trillion in 2015. China Investment Corporation had largely stayed with low yields on U.S. Treasury debt till 2007. CIC has about $650 billion in assets in 2015. Its strategies provide insights into how China sees the outlook for the global economy. Ding sees opportunities in real estate and infrastructure, with a focus on the U.S. and Europe for steady cash flows. He singles out the U.S. as of particular interest as its economy rebounds. Strategies also include paring down of energy holdings. Foreign holdings are now $220 billion and have increased by 16.6% since 2009. A special unit CIC Capital was formed recently to more directly participate in managing foreign holdings with a long term view. Earlier focus of CIC on natural resources and commodities is now shifting as the commodities crisis has reduced long term prospects in that sector. The plan for the future is to shift to an allocation where financial products such as stocks and bonds are about 50%, and long term assets such as infrastructure investments, real estate and other investment take up the other 50%. At the end of 2013 equities and fixed income represented 57.4% of CIC global assets, and 28.2% were in long term assets. Ding wants to see China as the No. 2 engine for the global economy after the U.S. as No. 1. He sees the prospects for Brazil, Russia and South Africa as poor, and is optimistic about good performance from India, Mexico and Nigeria. On Japan Ding is skeptical of prime minister Abe's plans because he sees the lack of structural reforms in the efforts leading to a kind of lazy effort in his view. CIC is learning from the experience of other national investment funds and improving its in-house investment and management capabilities. Ding has many years of experience with China's Finance Ministry, the Cabinet, and the State Council. ...

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India has reduced imports of oil from Iran from 12% in 2011 to about 9% by the end of April, 2012. A senior state department official from the U.S., Carlos Pascual, will be in India in mid May 2012 to assess the energy situation and see what specific energy facilities in India need to do. Some of the refineries in India are designed to handle only the kind of heavy oil Iran supplies. For the U.S. the issue is keeping up the pressure on Iran during the talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on Iran's nuclear program. For India it has the vital trade and economic relationship with the U.S. balanced against cultural ties to the region and the need for oil supplies.

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According to pollster Rasmussen Reports some 51% of voters say they trust Democrats more on the economy vs. 38% for the Republicans as the global financial crisis deepens. What this means is the possibilty that Democrats could have a filibuster and veto proof majority in the Senate and large majority in the House of representatives. Spending will be restrained because of the money going into bailig out the economy but some measures could very well move forward like changes in bankruptcy law, lower drug pricing and what medicare pays for drugs, taxes on windfall profits and taxing private equity partners at higher rates than the capital gains rates they pay now, and action on a range of energy issues including solar and wind.

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Sadanand Dhume in WSJ reflects opinion in the US that is wary of handout politics that has been carried to an extreme in India's election. In Venezuela the bad turn for the oil rich economy was when Chavez's successor Maduro ignorant of the problems it would create decided to give oil at almost no cost to all Venezuelans. In India the leading opposition party offered $1 lakh rupees to every woman in the state of Uttar Pradesh. India's federal government under Modi has given free food to about 800 million people and renewed the pledge this year because of the pandemic's devastating the rural economy- about 60% of India is still rural. This is essential for India to advance to build a broad based growth model for India similar to China 1990-2010 and Japan 1890-1915 and 1950-1970 during the transformation of their economies, similar also to the US under FDR/Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy 1940-1965.  Clean environments Swacch Bharat was essential for basic sanitation and toilets to reduce health risks, cooking gas to shift rural women from firewood and health risks, direct deposit bank accounts for 300 million rural households essential to eliminate leakages, solar energy is planned to cut energy cost  This has brought and will bring the level of income and consumption power of the lower and middle classes to create a 500 million strong consumer base for industry. It is a carefully planned effort based on the success in states such as Gujarat, and looking at the way this was done in China and the US for learning lessons. It is not a reckless effort to win votes such as the offer of 1 lakh rupees to every woman in Uttar Pradesh state with no plan for industrialization and modernization of the Indian economy to make it the third largest ahead of the EU by 2035. Dhume is right to point this out and it is apparent to any outsider who looks at Sab Ka Vikas Sab Ke Saath- prosperity for all, including all parts of society irrespective of caste and religion.  ...

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There is much uncertainty about the federal elections in Germany in 2025. Four years back in 2021 Olaf Scholz had 51% of people polled saying he would make a good chancellor. This is down to 26% in Feb 2025. Merz of CDU is at 32% and Habeck of Greens at 25%. The Greens are holding onto 14% similar to 2021 with the SPD Social Democrats of Scholz at a low of 18% down from 25% in 2021. CDU is at 32% compared to 24% in 2021. AFD moving from 11% in 2021 to 21%. The immigration issue and the weak economy with the Ukraine war has hit SPD hard. The Scholz coalition also failed to invest in the economy with the FDP of Finance Minister Lindner acting as a brake on needed investment in infrastructure. The result is that the German economy burdened with higher costs for energy and a faltering auto industry is showing zero growth. The most likely outcome is a CDU coalition with the Greens and the SPD with Merz as chancellor. There is athreshold for gettinginto parliament of 4%. At this time a breakaway faction of Left parties of Wagenknecht and the FDP are both polling below 4%. The AfD is at 21% and hoping to gain from the immigration issue. Much of the uncertaintly comes from 18% of voters not planning to vote, and the 13% of voters who have not made up their mind yet and will do so on election day. ...

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Inspirational talk given to Prime Minister's Office Staff on June 10, 2024, by Indian PM Narendra Modi. In this video Modi tells staff about the nature of the PM's office as a catalytic agent for creating new enthusiasm and energy for the nation's development efforts. Before 2014 prime ministers before him considered this as a power center, says Modi. He tells staff that the development effort was hard work for achieving the vision of a modern developed nation Vikshit Bharat 2047. That this was work 24 hours a day 7 days a week to accomplish goals set to meet the aspirations of 1400 million people in India. He says three points to remember was that work had to be done with concentration on the goal without getting distracted and determination to achieve it, second to have the character to do this in real life setting priorities and tasks. Third, the frame of mind that is always learning, always studying, always acquiring new knowledge about the tasks ahead.  ...

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This report from Germany in DW.com says Germany tried to build a softer relationship with Russia during the leadership of Adenauer of CDU and  Brandt of SPD. This continued under Schmidt and Schroeder. Under Merkel of CDU the emotional aspect of the relationship as Russia retreated from Bolshevism and Soviet Union collapsed was lost. Little attention was paid to East Germany and to how the fall of the Soviet Union had affected Russia negatively,and became purely focused on German industry and trade with cheap Russian gas supplies. Even as Germany did not invest in shared burden for defense with the US, and Germany under Merkel increased dependence on Russian gas supplies to 55% with the Nordstream gas pipeline from Russia, and shut down nuclear energy.  As a result the emotional or mental health aspect of the relationship with Russia of Germany was lost under Merkel. The focus on purely financial aspect of things has been proved wrong both for the economy as physical infrastructure was neglected under Merkel and social infrastructure such as child care and other social aspects of society were sorely neglected. A new broader framework that needs to be built will have to keep this in mind.  All the hard work and good intentions of the Adenauer and Brandt years has been lost with the short sighted basis of relations based purely on finance and trade under Merkel's leadership. This happened also in the US relationship with China with the relations based purely on finance and trade under Clinton, Bush, Obama proving to be too fragile as they did not protect other social aspects within the two countries as inequality widened and whole segments of society were neglected.  ...

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Holman Jenkins on what may be advisable steps like the Fed's efforts to print money and acquire every kind of private asset, but which have large "confidence costs", and the effects of the Madoff scandal that have another kind of confidence cost and is he says peculiarly demoralizing. He is skeptical about how well spent the $1 trillion stimulus will be, and there is a sense of bailout fatigue. He is also skeptical about policy which he says is always bad to a degree the way its made in ademocracy, but becomes an unvirtuous circle in the kind of situation where different interest groups start competing for where money should be spent. In the light of all this Jenkins sees a lost decade and asks the reader to get ready for that. The image of long lines from the 1930's that is the picture going with this article, with the caption "what the stimulus looks like", is not reassuring. It captures the mood of those who know that the strong steps ofthe new administration and the Fed are advisable, but simply not convinced that these steps will lead back to prosperity in the years ahead. In the American economy built as it is on innovation, energy, immigrants, and independent spirit, the churning of companies as new ones take the place of the old, and new technologies and their commercialization, the virtues of policy driven goals however worthy are set against the limits and inherent weakness of government bureaucracies, and the crowding out of private investment and initiative as the government steps in. Compared to previous periods like the FDR administration when business skeptical about the policy of the Democrats remained critical, there is a different situation today when bipartisan policy has been developed for years and a consensus was reached after the Reagan years that was followed through the Democratic Clinton administration, so that critiques of policy can be used to improve the way things are done to address the economic problems facing the country. ...

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Boone Pickens $ 2 billion investment in Texas to buy land and 700 turbines from GE for wind energy.

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Universal Health care, Education, and Energy are going to be tackled in 2009. Obama is not going to shy away from tackling all these issues in his first 6 months and he sees this as part of the solution, the simultaneous attack on all these problems which are interrelated as far as the economy is concerned and how it impacts the people. Health care for instance is a serious problem as the economy deteriorates and job losses increase and the highly indebted people find health care unaffordable, which the President emphasized with statistics to this effect. He also called for patience and support with restoring the banking system even though bankers have lost the trust of the American people. More money will be needed and his administration is working on all the details.And he reaffirmed his view that there is no waste inthe nearly $800 billion Stimulus plan, and his promise to keep a sharp eye out for wasteful spending by state and citiy officials..

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As automakers rettol their plants all three GM Ford and Chrysler look for ways to win support at the party conventions in Denver and Minneapolis and in Congress for a bipartisan support to get the $3.75 billion Congress has to appropriate for insurance and other costs to get the $25 billion loan program signed by President Bush in 2007. Debbie Stabenow, a Senator from Michigan backs an increase of this loan program to $50 billion and its presented as a way to help the country become more fuel efficient and develop alternative sources of energy. This loan program could make a critical difference to the cash strapped American companies when credit is hard to get in financial markets or the cost is too high. Note the importance of the states in the midwest like Michigan, Ohio and Indiana to both Presidential candidates make it increasingly likely that both will favor fully funding the automobile companies retooling plants and funding new technologies. These states could decide the election and the weak economy and high unemployment in the midwestern states means the candidates and the political parties will have to support the auto industry's efforts to remake the companies and America's energy future....

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Much coverage in India's media on the 150th of Gandhi. This essay provides insights into Gandhi for the self-empowerment of women in India's organized and unorganized labor sector. The author worked with the Textile Labor Association founded by Gandhi and Anasuyaben Sarabhai in Ahmedabad in 1920. She reminds Indians that it is about labour and capital working together for the betterment of India not capital against labor, or labor against capital, an idea she says is lost today. Ahmedabad became a textile center in the period between the 2 world wars, and Gandhi negotiated a 35 cent increase for mill workers after a 1917  labor strike. Anasuyaben started working with mill workers after seeing a women exhausted working a 36 hour shift. Earlier she was involved in the suffragette movement in Britain  and had seen the appalling conditions for mill workers in Britain. Her brother Ambalal Sarabhai was an industrialist and her uncle Vikram Sarabhai India's leading atomic energy scientist and pioneer in that field. She says most of the stuff written about Gandhi is laudatory without going to why it worked and knowing its value in bringing dignity to millions of the poorest people in the country. By taking personal responsibility even the poorest person could find dignity and empowerment was Gandhi's idea, and with it the whole country. This idea found its best expression in the Bhagavad Gita to which Gandhi turned as he faced the problems of coolies empowerment in South Africa and rural laborers in India under colonial rulers indifferent to their condition or progress. Gandhi's idea was that this empowerment and dignity was the way out through taking personal responsibility by each person- an idea expressed clearly in his short book "Hind Swaraj" India Home Rule, written in 1910 on a steamship going back from Britain  to South Africa. Taking personal responsibility if each person did it in a country of hundreds of millions would make it impossible for a couple of thousand Britishers to remain in the country. Ideas of non-violence were instruments of action, no more, no less. This was Gandhi's idea, his and the Gita's wisdom, and his shrewdness in a situation that confounded everyone faced by problems of a vast region with mostly rural labor and an indifferent foreign government. The same idea can be translated into action in today's environment in the same way based on personal responsibility for modernization, Swachh sanitation, cleaning up single use plastic, generating employment in manufacturing, and any number of ways in key areas of development. Gandhi saw the British as more a nation of traders. Without commerce the British would have less reason to remain in India. Personal responsibility leading to empowerment for tens of millions would make it impossible for the  few tens of thousands  of British to remain as it would require too much in resources to continue in India as a colonial power. This happened in 1942 as the military leader Wavell was made Viceroy during the war and wrote back to the British government that it would require 7 divisions to maintain order in the country. Economic adviser John Keynes cautioned the British government against prolonging colonial rule because Britain could no longer afford the cost after losing a quarter of its wealth in the Second World War. This is shown in the archives cited by several authors on this period. ...

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Darren Woods of Exxon gives the view of many in business in the U.S. when he says of the Paris climate change accords of 2015- "We need a framework like that to address the threat of climate change." GE's CEO Immelt says a decision to leave the Paris accords "is not going to change one thing we do for energy efficiency, and I think all business is going to feel the same way." Most utilities including AEP see the political changes in government as coming and going, making it important to base their long term strategies on the economics and the general trends worldwide. Only support for the move to leave is coming from some coal companies and the steel industry, a small fraction of the overall industry in the U.S. Not mentioned here is the moves worldwide, by China motivated by health and pollution concerns to shift away from coal after disastrous pollution effects seen in China, and the decades old effort in Germany that has made the country self sufficient in renewable energy through use of solar and wind energy. India has set aggressive targets for renewables energy and is likely to join this long term trend as the economics shift in favor of wind and solar, especially when the health costs are counted in.   ...

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Several experts point to a dangerous change in the nature of unemployment in this downturn. Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute, says people are more likely to get stuck with unemployment now than at any time in the post war period. Andrew Stettner, deputy Director of the National Employment Law Project, says a larger share of the unemployed are not going to be able to go to the same line of work. They will need new skills, just like an auto worker in a permanently downsized industry would have to find new skills to make a product in the renewable energy field or health care. And the law as it currently stands does not help either. Because if an unmeployed worker looks for training or goes back to school he loses his unemployment benefits, something the Obama administration proposes to change. What this means is that many of the unemployed will end up as permanent job losers. Rob Valetta, an economist at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank says that throughout the the last 3 decades including good times, the unemployment pool is shifting towards permanent job losers. Lawrence Katz, a Harvard University economist, points out that once workers exhaust their unemployment benefits and don't get new training, they become disconnected to the labor market, and bascially end up on disability or become permanently unemployed. The statistics bear this out. In April 2009, 47.1% of the people collecting state unemployment insurance exhausted the usual 26 weeks of benefits without finding work, according to the Bureau of Laor Statistics, that is the highest rate on record. In December 2007, there were about 2 unemployed workers for every job opening, according to Labor Department data. In March 2009 there were five unemployed workers for every opening. Mark Beaupre, 49, of Providence, R.I. lost his $8 an hour manufacturing job an year ago, one of many manufacturing jobs he has held since the 1980's. His wife Cathy lost her customer service job a year ago. This couple who together made $50,000 a year, are now behind on their mortgage payments and have applied for food assistance. At a recent job fair in Providence he says three thousand people turned up and he could not even get into the parking lot. ...

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Calin Georgescu of Romania who won the first round of the Romania election is interviewed by The Times of London.  An advocate of life lived close to Nature and religion,  who agrees with RFK Jr., and a skeptic of UN and NATO wins the first round of the Romanian election in 2024 with 23% of the vote. Social media Tik Tok videos helped Georgescu come out of obscurity into a lead in the election. This interview was conducted in darkness after a blackout at a friend's home outside Bucharest.  He says of the war in Ukraine that it is not our business, we are interested only in Romanians. His main concern agricultural independence for Romania as sovereignty, which means food water and energy. He wants respect, health and sovereignty for Romanians.  Georgescu is not sold on the British/French/German/Japanese narrative of the Ukraine war, as he sees Putin (and DJT) as patriotic in sentiment. He says Romania is fine in the EU and NATO but will negotiate what is in the interest of Romanians. ...