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Osipova and Castle provide details about the personal life of Theresa May, the new British prime minister. May was only 25 when her father died in a car crash and her mother died soon after from multiple sclerosis. This has made her come closer to her husband Philip whom she met at Oxford, where they bonded over a love of cricket and debates at the university. She was interested in Tory politics from a young age, but has her own style of hard work and dislikes the chumocracy in British Conservative Party politics that prevailed under David Cameron. Unlike Cameron who was brash and confident to the point of making bold moves such as the decision to call a referendum as election year politics and did not consider carefully the impact of the austerity programs on Britain's working class; May is thoughtful and has been critical of the long period of deficit cutting austerity under Cameron and Osborne. She loves cooking and has a library of over 100 cookbooks, loves clothes and is carefully dressed for each event. Her matter of fact way to get on with it also has to do with her response to diabetes, with 4 injections a day her thought is "to just deal with it." She and her husband worked in investment banking, before her election as MP from Maidenhead, a constituency near London, on the third attempt. In an interview with the Daily Telegraph she has described the woman she is often compared to, Angela Merkel of Germany, as someone who doesn't get enough appreciaton. For May Merkel has actually achieved something significant by "steering Germany through a difficult time," and with her negotiation abilities during the eurozone crisis proved her resourcefulness, "hats off to her," says May. ...

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This WSJ report sees Angela Merkel as leaving an international legacy of cooling relations with America. It says Angela Merkel turned down US president Biden's first call after his election as president because she was going to her cottage in the country that weekend. This report says after 4 terms Merkel is to be seen as dramatically increasing her country's economic dependence on China, pushing through a energy deal with Russia, joining France in challenging US political influence in Europe, rejecting American requests on economic policy and setting Berlin's openness to Chinese technology.  What happened with her youthful fascination with America during the years growing up in East Germany asks the WSJ? It also says of the Bush years of unregulated banking leading to the 2009 US banking crisis- that left her with a distaste for Anglo-Saxon banks and Wall Street lobbying. Of the Obama years it says Merkel found Obama unsteady, verbose, and sometimes meddling, with the spying on Merkel's phone also giving her a sense of disrespect to Germany. The result was that Merkel increasingly was fascinated by the Chinese experiment in development, visiting China 13 times while in office, studying Chinese history, politics and economics.  Merkel over this period met with the Dalai Lama and had questions about one party rule by CCP. Yet she became more and more resigned to Germany as a country of 80 million, not the EU and Europe as one group united in vision with a population of about 500 million, larger than America that could be a force for good in its own right. She said "we can be as hardworking, awesome,  as super as we like, but as a country of 80 million we won't be able to prevail if China ever decided that it no longer wants to have good relations with Germany." She ignored the experience of Sweden and Scandinavian countries in their relations with China. In saying this she ignored the potential of India and its neighbors in south-east Asia that make up about 2 billion people or about twice the population of China. She also seemed unaware of the role Woodrow Wilson, FDR, have played in realizing the democratic vision of the German revolutionaries of 1948 who failed to bring democratic government to Germany. And she had forgotten of the role Harry Truman, the commoner president of the US, who played a major role in establishing German democracy and its dignity during the Berlin Crisis after the blockade of Berlin by the Soviets in 1948. The mediocrity of presidents from Bush to Trump has bothered Merkel. Yet it may very well be that there is nothing mediocre about Mr. Biden and America's vision about its future as it grapples with the social and economic problems of the last three decades, as it has done before in its history and come through. ...

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The language and tone of the leaders says something about what is likely to be the outcome of the G20 summit. Its a first for significant participation, as countries as diverse as Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the Netherlands are represented. The credible positions of both sides, the US, UK and Japan, and the European side of France, Germany and the Czech Republic, well presented, provide for some serious discussion and negotiations. France's Sarkozy and Germany's Merkel want to see a global regulator that would reach inside the borders of the US with stricter regulation. Sarkozy calls this "nonnegotiable." And he said that he would reject an agreement that puts off stringent new regulations on banks, tax havens, and hedge funds. He said "the compromise has to come from all countries around the world." US President Obama said that if there is going to be renewed growth it can't just be the US as the engine, everybody is going to have to pick up the pace," at the same time saying that the US had to be concerned about its own deficits. The fact is that the US stimulus will mostly help a severely impacted domestic economy recover with social safey net payments to local and state governments and unemployment insurance, as well as targeted investments in infrastructure, education, energy and health care. It will not mean anywhere near the kinds of imports the US made from other countries, especially China. And Obama made that clear when he said the US will never return to that situation, where the US had become a "voracious consumer market." For the Germans the major market for their middle companies is China, and China has its own stimulus spending on infrastructure spending, which should provide for continued imports of machinery from Germany at a much lower level. Thus Germany and France see a strong tendency to call the source of the crisis and repeat that call till the US listens, and refer to the failure of free market capitalism in its unregulated form. And to insist on fixing it through a global regulator with strict and systemwide rules. So you hear this in Merkel's words, "the foundation for this finacial architecture must be laid now, that is why we seem to be so tough." While the vivacious Sarkozy talks of compromise, and a US gesture in regulation in return for Franc's gesture of joining NATO, the mild mannered Merkel is clear and focussed about her concern. She rejects the idea of linking stimulus spending demands of the Anglo-Americans with the Franco-German demands for global systemwide regulation. "This is not a bargaining chip," she says. The media may mistakenly report lack of consensus as a failure of the summit. But in the long run in the presence of good positions on both sides, it could lead to some tough negotiations even if continued at another meeting. And result in something serious, credible and lasting in its impact, rather than something that was easy and did not in Andy Grove's useful words involve "constructive confrontation." ...

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France's Thomas Piketty concentrated on inequality and arrives at no solutions or relief, just a historical summary that is also intuitively seen. The pandemic, climate change's impact on agriculture and livable planet, the Ukraine war have raised three questions right before our eyes that are broader and cover more and deeper ground.  The pandemic showed that the dependence on manufacturing in remote locations was a serious error. Climate change showed that agriculture the ability to feed the world itself was affected by this dependence on remote location manufacturing.  Much of this manufacturing was shipped out to China, Europe and the US lost their manufacturing base and with the communities spread out  across the US and EU lost factories and work. Manufacturing was not just shipped out to China, the process was concentrated in a short span of time leading to destruction of the environment on an unprecedented scale in China and the world  by burning lots of coal and fossil fuels. The Russian invasion of Ukraine showed the failure of this arrangement  and exposed its cracks  for Europe, US, and the free world in Asia and Latin America. The shipping out of manufacturing in this way not only destroyed communities and jobs in manufacturing in the US and the EU, but also led to such a broad accumulation of  dollar reserves in Russia and China, that enabled the invasion of neighboring countries in Europe without serious consequences to their economies, the invasion of Ukraine and the threatened takeover of Taiwan. By tackling these issues and building a supply chain concentrated more at home and in the free world better manufacturing jobs will be created in Europe and the US and in the nations of the free world that mitigate and reduce all the effects of inequality that Piketty and others talk about. The newer factories built in advanced nations of the EU and the US and set up in the free world in Asia and other countries, will be built with climate change in mind and make the shift away from coal and fossil fuels, and for conservation plus efficiency in use of energy at every step in the newly built supply chain. The results will be good for all countries in the world including the US, EU, China and India, as climate change can be aggressively tackled in this way with the latest technology and trillions of dollar of capital investments for the benefit of all. ...

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This WSJ report on critical analysis of coronavirus data has a very useful chart of Estimated Range of Symptomatic Cases Reported by Country. Complete coronavirus data for all symptomatic persons who have the coronavirus infection is lacking in most countries. Many people in large populations have symptoms and are positive but are not reflected in the official data collection. This is a big problem as the total number of cases are understated by a magnitude of twice to five times the numbers reported in official tally.   South Korea has done a good job of getting more of the symptomatic people with the infection in its data, as about 53% to 90% of such persons are reflected in official data. Next comes Germany at a range of 38% to 55%.  China comes third and has about 28% to about 38% of such persons reflected in its data, the U.S. currently on April 4 at about 14% to 19%, according to this chart in the WSJ. The source for this is Mathematical Modeling Center at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. What this means is that the US. number of cases at 278,000  reported infected people with symptoms (April 4) is only 14% to 19% of the true number. Another way to say this is that the actual infected persons with symptoms is about 5 times what is reported, or over 1 million not the 278,000 reported.  As happens for China data collection agencies may never get the true number. To be comparable to the Chinese numbers, as the U.S. is a large country, the figure closer to the true numbers would be twice the 278,000 reported or over half a million symptomatic infections of coronavirus in the U.S. Why is this data important. With widespread testing as in South Korea one gets data that tells one how many people are infected (the size of the problem) and therefore the resources needed and the point of greatest impact. Also it tells one the typical transmission rate per person, and it helps hospitals in each area know what to expect and what resources are needed to prepare- not find people suddenly turn up in the E.R. in unpredictable numbers. The lack of widespread testing and better reporting in the data to get a grip on the pandemic is shown in this chart for countries hardest hit, less than 5-6% for Italy and Spain. The UK and France at 5-8%.   ...

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Shiller says policy is captured and communicated by metaphors, the most effective being belt tightening for a family. However what works for a family does not work for a country in the same way, especially if not accompanied by other measures and implemented in a strict manner without looking at the real situation. Better suggests Shiller, and more real is the metaphor of "winter on the family farm," where people work to do other chores than planting and harvesting, because a lot of other things need to be done and this is a good time to do it. This would include cleaning up the place, fixing the farm and the barn, fixing machinery, building fences. The farm's members pay a tax in terms of donated labor which goes to do all the work needed and helps the farm's productiveness as the weather changes. Similiarly the Salant-Paul Samuelson balanced budget theorem from the FDR days shows an increase in national output by the amount of a tax, such as the one proposed in France by president Hollande; that would then be invested in hiring more teachers (the labor) and investing in education infrastructure....

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The Logan lower cost model produced by Renault's Romanian affiliate Automobile Dacia SA is setting a pattern that is being looked at as a model for the future throughout Renault. It is combining the advantages of Japanese manufacturing methods with their attention to detail and good practices evident at Nissan, Renault's partner company, with the cost conscious methods evident in operations in a Renault joint venture with Mahindra and Mahindra of India. Dacia Automobile was a Soviet era plant, and Renault has modernized it but keeps a more labor intensive attitude with good basics operation here, in contrast to the trend to automate everything and use robots extensively that became popular at other plants in Europe, U.S., and Japan. As Renault managers in France and its overseas operations look at both the expanding markets for lower cost cars and the profitability of the Dacia plant in Romania, it is becoming a model to be imitated. Other plants built earlier now look overautomated and costly for manufacturing cars in a cost conscious pricing sensitive competitive market that automakers face. Logan is contributing to Renault's bottom line, and may help it in reaching the 6% in operating margins that is a new goal for Renault for 2009. Dacia Automobile S.A. initally owned 55% by Renault is now 99% owned by Renault. It has sales of 2 billion euros ,in 2007 with revenue increase of 30% over 2006. The profit was 100 million euros in 2007. It employs 14,000 workers and Renault's investment has reached 1 billion euros upto this point. The plant turns out 60 cars per hour. Compare this with a similiar investment by VW in a Soviet era Skoda automobile plant in the Czech Republic, where VW started with an inital investment in part ownership and ended up in full ownership of Skoda with large investments in modernizing Skoda, and the success in selling Skoda cars known for their good quality. The Skoda is expected to sell at the million dollar sales level in 2010 and is the fastest growing brand in Europe. It ties with Honda in quality surveys. ...

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Brandenburg Berlin metropolitan region of which Brandenburg and city of Berlin are separate states remains a strong economic region. This is where Germany has evolved under ruler Frederick since the end of the Thirty Years War in 1648. Dietmar Woidke of ruling Social Democrats is expected to win a fourth term in office with the SPD expecting 25% of the vote in the important state of Brandenburg next to Berlin. Even though the AfD right wing party is expected to do well approaching 25% of the vote, there are other factors at work. Sara Wagenknecht has rebranded the Die Linke Left party with immigration policy that is similar to policies now being accepted in Denmark, France, Netherlands and other EU countries that see the need to restrict immigration, drawing 15% support. A good example being Mette Frederiksen, Social Democrats in Denmark. A coalition with the Christian Democrats CDU with about 15% expected vote and Greens with less than 5% is likely for about 45% of the vote. Other factors that show a stable Brandenburg are the economy with the new regional airport hub of Berlin Brandenburg airport, a new Tesla factory, rich natural resources a third of the state of 2.6 million people being filled with forests and lakes, and a stable population after the reunification in 1990 without rural depopulation as in other parts of East Germany, only 12% people of immigrant background including Wagenknecht.   ...

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The WSJ's Juan Montes, in an exceptional report from Mexico City, tells the story behind a landmark achievement for Mexico- Pacto Por Mexico of Dec. 2, 2012. The major political parties of the right, centre and left forge an agreement for the way forward for Mexico- beyond monopolistic pricing and industry structures in Mexico that hurt consumers, to increase foreign investment and new technlogies to modernize the national oil company Pemex operations, change labor laws, and create a climate for higher growth. The pact is broad ranging, shows a grasp of the problems facing modern Mexico, and ranges from anti-monopoly laws to getting junk food out of schools considering Mexico's high obesity and diabetes rate. It covers 95 goals. It is hard to overstate the significance of this achievement for modern Mexico. Montes describes the initiative of the PRD leader Zambrones in rebranding his PRD party as a moderate left wing party open to new ideas. This happened after the departure of Lopez Obrador from the PRD to form his own party in September. Zambrano and PRD moderates brought up the idea based on what happened in a landmark deal in Spain in 1977, that helped transform Spain after decades of stagnation under the Franco dictatorship. Around July after the presidential election, PRD president Zambrano, and the PRD's Jesus Ortega, held meetings in Mexico City with Jose Murat, a senior PRI politician, and PRI president elect Nieto's top advisor, economist Luis Videgaray. The decision was made by president Nieto and economist Luis Videgaray to pursue the discussions for joint agreement on vital issues facing Mexico. The PAN party was brought into the discussions. By mid-September nine people from the PRD, PRI and PAN started work on a draft agreement at Murat's home. The ground rules were set for discussions to be private, to have agreement on all points or assume nothing had been agreed, and not let current events disturb the talks. The nine participants set up the broad principles, and then a group of three, one from each party was given the task of coming up with the right language for the pact. By the end of November a 34 page draft was put together. A night of intense work to 2 a.m. followed the inauguaration of president Nieto on Dec. 1, with the Pact ready for announcement on Dec. 2, 2012. The Pact is a landmark achievement in its potential for changing Mexico and creating decades of economic progress similiar to that envisioned by the Spanish parties for Spain in 1977. ...

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How Renault- Nissan execute plan to build low cost cars for markets in Eastern Europe, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, North Africa and India, China. A new plant with initial capacity of 200,000 Logan type small cars to open in Tangiers, Morocco. Plants already operate in Brazil, Columbia, Mexico and Russia for Logan type vehicles. The Logan small car at $7500 is still a middle class car in countries like India so Renault is talking to Bajaj Auto of India,a maker of motorbikes and scooters, about making a $3000 car. The scenario that large automakers are looking at is one in which makers of small cars in India like Tata and Cherry in China master the art of making small cars with lower cost components and good quality and then move upscale using this expertise to underprice them in their segments like Toyota and Honda have done. Renault moved into the low cost segment in Sept 2004 with the Logan made in Romania, so its moving quickly in this segment and it is becomin a key part of Renault-nissan's global strategy. Note that Logan sales are about 400,000 but only 50,000 of these sold in France and Germany relatively small sales in Western Europe. ...

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Barcelona's football club is unique for several reasons and may support time tested ideas of good ways of managing an organization. It is unique because it is a source of Catalan pride- Catalan having suffered under the rule of General Franco. The Club is owned by its members, called socis in Catalan. There are 150,000 members. Management is responsible to 2500 randomly selected socis and 600 senior socis. Barca also has a boarding school, La Masia, where it brings up talented athletes from a young age, almost like a children's choir in European cathedrals. The boarding school stresses character building and values of team spirit, self-sacrifice, perseverance. Messi is a product of this school's training and support from a very young age. This special feeling of the Catalan spirit, of which Barca becomes the embodiment, makes the club something that may not be easily created elsewhere. Yet the Catalans may have learned some things about nurturing talent, character and team spirit that they have used to setup their unique arrangement. ...

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Britain's prime minister David Cameron is having finance minister Osborne lead the negotiations with Germany and France on treaty changes for Britain to stay in the European Union, following his election promise to hold a referendum by 2017. The discussion about the prospects for changes show how difficult it will be for Britain to get the changes in the next 2 years. German chancellor Merkel supports Britain staying in the EU but only up to a point, and German public opinion does not show strong support for the kind of changes on immigration that Cameron is seeking. Support is also declining in countries like Poland because of the immigration issue. Merkel would like to see Britain in because of its open economy, free markets, and also because German contributions to the EU budget would increase significantly with the exit of Britain. Northern countries such as Sweden would also favor an effort to keep Britain inside the EU. On defence and foreign affairs EU without Britain would not carry the same weight and influence. Inside Britain Cameron faces problems with Euroskeptics inside the Conservative Party, and with the 13% popular vote that went to the UK Independence Party in the recent election. The uncertainty is not good for business and the economy of Britain, which is why Cameron is considering holding the referendum on the EU in 2016....

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Baker and Erlanger describe Russian president Putin's effort to finance parties on the right and the left to oppose western sanctions on Russia. The effort by Russian television RT to spread disinformation in the European Union. The goal is to create fractures in European unity and weaken the European Union and NATO. Other experts such as former national intelligence officer, Fiona Hill, and former assistant secretary of state, David Kramer, are skeptical about the effectiveness of these methods. These methods may also come from an old book of methods from the Cold War period because of president Putin's experience in Dresden during the Soviet days, which current European Union leaders would see as having little relevance to the global economy and global scene of today. The rise of the smaller parties in Europe in opposition to the traditional parties has more to do with the difficult economic conditions in Europe, and has little in common with Russia and its problems with its oil dependent economy and its interests in Eastern Europe. As the 2015 Pew Research survey on Europe shows, opinion is shifting towards greater support for the European Union as economic conditions improve, and is likely to move further in this direction with a return to economic growth. Favorable views of the EU which dropped from 60% in 2012 to 53% in 2014, was up to 61% in 2015, according to the survey. The Euroskeptic parties are viewed "as a good thing," as a way to shake up the complacency of the major ruling parties in tackling the economy, according to the Pew Europe Survey. In the percentage of people who see the Euroskeptic parties as a good thing for the country- Podemos left party in Spain gets 70% favorable rating, UK Independence Party 66% favorable, Five Star Movement in Italy 58%, AfD in Germany 50%, and much less so in France with 36% saying this for the National Front, and 36% for the New Right in Poland....

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The German government has taken notice of hate speech on social media and social bots. The Justice Ministry convened a task force on hate speech on internet. Justice Minister Heiko Maas promised legal action against social media like facebook and twitter if it violated laws of libel and inciting to violence. Chancellor Merkel is bringing in a data science expert Professor Simon Hegelich of the Technical University of Berlin for consultations in Dec. 2016. Only AfD of the main parties, with its anti-immigration stance, has not come out in favor of not using social bots or paid trolls in the 2017 elections. Hegelich in talk with DW.com says it is hard to legislate on this because the whole phenomenon has not been fully understood. Article 5 of the Constitution provides for free speech. Hegelich also says the state of technology moves faster than legislation, and being international sites like facebook, twitter and others pose additional issues. He does not say laws cannot be helpful but that its not clear how best to do this. Thomas Jarzombek is a CDU member of parliament and digital media expert. He says social bots are more likely controlled by foreign countries, and fake news sites are more of a domestic problem. Making this worse is the incentive for unemployed journalists to do blogging of the crude and aggressive type to make more money. Jarzombek sees the need for the press to do more in its role for the democratic process to function properly, by functioning in the role of "enlightenment" and "awareness."  Jenna Behrends, a law student and CDU local politician for Berlin-Mitte, says it is necessary for good bots to be used to fight bad bots, in an article in Der Spiegel. Major mainstream media would then have to launch social bots themselves to fulfill their role of providing the public with correct and fair information free of excessive bias and distortion of the bad bots. One example of this is shown explicitly here of German chancellor Merkel's picture with the words " Guilty of betraying the people," with links to "Drain the swamp," and "Brexit." A more complex question is one of how to let people vent out frustration about the mainstream media itself being biased in favor of the established views and not doing enough or giving enough space to reflect alternative views, so that these can be debated without inflammatory language and deliberate distortion. A whole range of tools and modifications of behaviour may be necessary ahead of next years elections in France and Germany, now that the phenomenon is better understood following a vote in the Anglo-Saxon countries.   ...

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This report in DW.com discusses the quick rise of Annalena Baerbock, 40 years, to the co-leader role with better known Robert Habeck, 51 years, at a party conference in 2018. In the winter of 2019 she was supported by a huge 97% of delegates at the party conference, with Habeck getting 90%. She has an advantage in foreign policy issues with her education in England at the London School of Economics, where she studied for her Masters degree in International Law. She speaks fluent English, rare in German politics. Baerbock spent 1 year in the US when she was only 16 years old. Very useful now with changes in Europe, the US and India. Boris Johnson in Britain, Biden in the US, and Modi in India, all speaking English.  She has spoken up against xenophobia, and being from Potsdam in the east is able to understand issues facing East Germany. A big change Baerbock says happened in 2019. Then she and Habeck decided to open up the Greens to become a big tent party that welcomes people from all sides. This was a smart choice at the time as Germans moved away from the two main parties- the SPD and the CDU. Dismay from the Schroder years when working class issues were ignored, and dissatisfaction with the Merkel years when investments in infrastructure, social care, health, education were neglected.  AfD support has stalled with the end of the migrant crisis and immigration no longer an issue. Baerbock says today of that 2019 party conference- "What we knew then was that we wanted to open our party up, that we wanted to make policies for a broad society: inviting and with clear objectives. Here today I want to make an offer, for the whole of society, as an invitation to lead our diverse, strong, rich country into a good future." Key changes that could happen in Germany in 2022- Phase out of coal powered energy by earlier date than 2038. No support for increased defense spending. Yet this is not likely to be an issue with the new American Biden administration. Infrastructure and vital investments in health and education would become a top priority similar to the US, UK and India. Careful policy coordination by Germany with the US, UK, France, India and Japan, and other EU nations, as the world shifts into a period in which lessons learned from the pandemic and the last three decades lead to renewal of supply channels and renewal of societies.   ...

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The UN badge and logo for sustainable development goals is becoming highly popular in Japan. It has 17 colors for the 17 Sustainable Development goals set by the UN- ending poverty, reducing inequality, improving education, other aspirations of the people of the world. It is something India, the US, Canada, Britain ,Germany, France and other nations should adopt in the way Japan has done. India has taken up specific goals, clean India, clean water, electrification, and made it available to all 1.2 billion people, in its own version of SDG. Introduced into Japan by 2016, this badge is now so popular that there it is everywhere says this report in NYT. In children's playgrounds, in comic books, on NHK broadcaster's video with about 1 million views, on Buddhist temple websites, and used by businesses. In 2016 it was made official national policy by Mr Abe's government and a task force established on them by the government. In 2017 it was adopted to its charter by Keidanren, the business federation.  In the US very few know about S.D.G.'s but in community oriented Japan it has been taken up with zeal. It is part of the conversation and one survey shows 40% of Japanese business were working towards the goals in 2021. It has been adopted by Education Canada Network and it is a good way to bring this idea in education to schools and colleges in North America, Britain, EU, India and China, as well as Africa and Latin America, other parts of Asia. In India some of the SDG's are already the focus of campaigns by the Modi government Goal 0  Clean Nation one that has not been coined yet one that is called Clean India or Swacch Bharat Goal 1 Zero Hunger was taken up during the vaccination for covid campaign to get free foodgrains and vegetables to all 1.2 billion people. Goal 2  Clean Water and Sanitation or Har Ghar Jal getting clean tap water to all rural homes by 2024. Goal 3 Infrastructure, Industry, Exports Goal 4 Renewable Energy The sequence is different from the UN SDG's. The difference is it is a goal set for universal meaning everyone and delivery meaning by a specific date, and the priorities are set in the numbering. The Indian SDG campaigns under the Modi government and at federal and state levels are unprecedented in history for a population of this size, and now present a model for all nations in Asia, Africa, Latin America on how to go about doing the SDG's in practice. ...

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Privileged minorities ethnic or white among large native populations. Amy Chua argues that free markets that empower the white minority giving it special privileged status, and democracy that empowers the native peoples, leads to conflict and exacerbates tensions. She talks about the Venezuelan experience with Chavez. Before Chavez Venezuela had free markets and elections in which two parties alternately controlled the government. Even before Reagan era and post Reagan era promotion of free markets and democracy this existed. However people were fed up with corruption and the native peoples did not see their lives improve. They tried a populist politician in Chavez who redistributes petroleum wealth to the poorer classes. Some of this tension is inevitable, but if all sides use good sense and understanding, and manage this tension constructively there still exists a better situation than there was before- when looking at overall public welfare and considering the welfare of the people and the educated professional classes. When there is a failure to work together it shows the shortsightedness of both sides, the poor understanding and lack of joint effort for mutual benefits, and not the shortsightedness of free markets and democracy. And one is not talking of free markets as American type, but free markets as crafted for each individual country based on its own history, culture, time and place, as free markets are not the same in America, Britain, Germany, France, Japan and South Korea, China and India in the post war period. China is not even a democracy and has practiced one of the wildest kind of free market economy based on its own unique situation, calculated consensus to use exports, foreign investment, and domestic investment in infrastructure as engines of development- its own peculiar use of free market ideas for its own situation. If it works, for as long as it works its good. Now as the situation changes with loss of export markets expected in 2009, China is changing to another kind of use of free market ideas tailored to its idea of free markets for development of the Chinese economy and distribution of benefits to urban and rural areas. ...

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XI Jinping tells China's National People's Congress that "western nations- including the US- have implemented all round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to development." Addressing the private sector Chamber of Commerce representatives which create significant number of jobs in China he said the Communist Party "has always regarded private enterprises and private entrepreneurs as our own people, and will always support them whenever they run into difficulties." Job creation in China is a challenge with high youth unemployment estimated at about 20%. The pandemic worsened the situation for state finances and for unemployment for migrants, the construction slowdown has added to this. The burden of trillions of dollars of local government debt increased during the pandemic with the central government lacking the resources to help, creating problems in the local economies.  This WSJ report says Xi's speech seeks to present his government's performance in the light of these challenges and future challenges as growth slows in China. The trading relationship with US-EU added to employment and income problems for China's economy and people, yet it had one weakness an over concentration in manufacturing in one country that European and US business placed in one country. The building of a  new supply chain that creates manufacturing in other countries to reduce this concentration, and the limits placed on access to western technologies by China to protect US-EU in competition, places new development challenges for China, which Xi alludes to. In the past China was able to use huge stimulus to tackle its debt by creating more growth that supported this debt creation. The pandemic may finally have reversed this as trillions of dollars of debt have built up, and construction of homes and infrastructure has reached a saturation point. This is the kind of situation that Japan entered in the 1990's after three decades of torrid growth and development rates. History is being repeated as China like Japan is entering a new phase of an aging society. In this sense the challenges China is facing are very different from that of Russia. Creating jobs is a perennial problem in India and China with their large populations and rising aspirations of people after centuries of underdevelopment, something that Europe including Russia does not face in anywhere to a similar degree. in this sense there is more in common between the EU and Russia even when they are in a war, than Russia and China, and China has more in common with India. The struggle in Europe as Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has pointed out in his History of Europe, is more about the balance of power which is the story of European history since the 1450's where no one country has been allowed to act with impunity in invading its neighbors and other countries formed a concerted group to prevent this. Be it France, Austria, Britain or Russia that acted seemingly with impunity. China has little to do with it or Europe's history. President Biden is right to say that the US only competes with China in the economic and business fields, and seeks to find common ground on climate change and food insecurity. The US has supported China throughout the twentieth century since the time of Woodrow Wilson in 1913, around the period when Tsinghua University was established with US help. The US helped China during the Japanese invasion and the Cold War period ended with renewed relations.  ...

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Irish voters rejected the Lisbon treaty 53% to 47%. Ireland joined the EU in 1973 and has gone during this period from the poorest country in the bloc to the second richest in per capita terms after Luxembourg. As the first attemp to get approval of an EU constitution for a closer political union was rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005, the effort was modified to take out the EU flag and call it a treaty and not a constitution and to go the route of approval by parliaments in each country instead of elections. But Ireland's constitution required a referendum and now Ireland has rejected the treaty. The Irish generally have favored the EU so it will give more thought to those who favor closer political union about how to proceed from here. Opposition to it in Ireland was based on a fear that Irish taxes would have to be raised and make Ireland less attractive for investors, and fear that the EU's global free trade stance meant that cheap food imports would be forced on Ireland and hurt Irish agriculture, but the Lisbon treaty has little to do with taxes and farming. The Lisbon treaty calls for a EU President that is appointed and ceate a Foreign Minister who can speak for the EU and greater powers to legislate in areas like immigration. How will EU supporters proceed from here? One is to go for ratification by the Parliaments of the 26 other countries in the EU without risking a vote. Another is to work on a two speed Europe with core countries like Germany and France and Spain and Portugal and Italy forming a political union and countries like the UK and Netherlands taking a more trade and economic based union approach. Also subject of discussion will be how to get the message of European union across, what is it about, and what are the institutions for, according to one expert at Oxford University....

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Germany's chancellor Merkel sees Britain as necessary for Europe and the European spirit. This even though she has differences with British prime minister Cameron on how to elect the new president of the EU following EU parliamentary elections in May 2014. She told the German parliament in June 2014- "Britain is really no cozy partner. Yet Germany and Britain share values and interests. I consider it grossly negligent, in fact unacceptable, how easily some people say that it is really all the same whether Britain goes along or not, or more: whether Britain remains a member of the European Union or not."

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Russia invades Ukraine on multiple fronts, across Belarus, across its western border with Ukraine, on the pre dawn hours of February 24, 2022. Russian foreign minister Lavrov says "tense and detailed discussions" with US and NATO are still taking place. In talks with the US, president Putin of Russia had demanded that Ukraine commit to not joining NATO. The US insisted that this was upto Ukraine and that the territorial integrity of Ukraine had to be respected. Interventions by Macron of France and other leaders failed to bring the two sides closer. The US and Europe with a reluctant Germany looked at sanctions as a deterrent. This proved to be wrong. Mr. Putin has a passionate view of Ukraine and Kviv's historical role in the formation of the Russian state, evident in his televised address only 48 hours before the actual invasion. Ukraine has shifted between Poland and the Baltic states, Germany on one side and Russia on the other in its thousand year old history. The shift away from Bolsheviks and Communists under the Soviet Union after 1990 changed the relationship of Ukraine with its neighbors once again as Ukraine became closer to Poland and the Baltics, and Germany. Germany remains reluctant to revert to the relationship with Russia that led to 2 World Wars. During the leadership of Willy Brandt and successive German SPD leaders, as well as with Konrad Adenauer and CDU leaders, the goal was to build a good relationship with Russia. Merkel of the CDU went as far as accepting dependence on Russia for 40% of its gas supplies, after shifted out of nuclear energy and supporting a new Nordstream undersea pipeline for gas supplies.  The early reaction on DW.com and German television was one of shock as no one really expected that this would lead to a full scale invasion. Scholz of the SPD the new chancellor in 2022 was not active in forging anew consensus allowing NATO's Stoltenberg who is a former Norwegian prime minister 2005-2013 to frame the response of Europe. Norway's role in European security was marginal for most of the twentieth century. Other events had detracted from bringing active German and American participation in coming up with a framework of dialogue to address concerns of both sides and still build a common ground for peace- Afghanistan, the pandemic in its third year, China's deteriorating one sided trade relationship with America that hurt American workers and manufacturing. As a result China and Germany were essentially absent in building the framework for peace. Afghanistan hasty withdrawal made it harder for president Biden to come up with new approaches to build a common framework. President Macron made some faltering efforts on the fringes even as president Putin focused on the US response and its intentions with NATO on European soil, and declared that it was directly US Russia negotiations that needed to work. With this the whole framework of relations since the presidency of Reagan and the relations with Russia and China come to a close. And a new framework needs to be constructed that draws in India already or soon to be the most populous nation in the world, in an effort to build an enduring new framework. The voices of Eastern Europe need to be heard, yet balanced with the voices from India, China, Germany, Russia, and other countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa that are affected by world events. ...

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Nelson Schwartz of the NYT looks at the town of Neenah, Wisconsin, a year after the election in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania with 80,000 votes swinging the other way from blue to red handing the election to Mr. Trump. The pressures are still there with cheaper imports, paper mills about to close, and workers still struggling to keep the same lifestyle as their parents. Even with low unemployment of about 3% in Wisconsin, with the slow increase in wages and corporate pressures for profits, trade wars, the sense is that the problems of the American middle class are still just as deep.

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Ghannouchi of Tunisia's Ennahada Party puts forward ideas for a pathway that Islamists could follow to integrate into the political life of Middle Eastern countries- compromise, working together with non-Islamist parties for the common good, focussing on economic development, pursuing moderate Islamist ideas, bringing in those excluded from the political process thorough a new inclusiveness, and respecting the opposition. He sees the successful election in Tunisia in which Ennahada worked with the opposition parties to ensure a smooth transition, as a model for other countries and the Arab neighborhood. In 2014 another process of smooth transition after elections, and respect for the opposition, happened in Indonesia with the election of Jakarta governor Widodo to be the new president. This set another model of respect for democracy, fair elections, respect for the opposition, focus on economic development and inclusiveness, for Muslim countries in another part of the world. Pakistan is another Muslim country which is working to create a model in the presence of much violence from Pakistan Taliban, and interventions by the military in politics. Assistance from the U.S. helped Iraq make the transition under the Bush administration till it unraveled with the policies of the Obama administration. Libya had the potential to make the transition with continued western cooperation and support- a change in administrations in the U.S. and France resulted in policies not supportive of a stable transition. The whole process now needs to be fostered carefully by western liberal democracies. Here Ennahada's Ghannouchi tells the world about the lessons learned by Islamist parties themselves for pathways to embrace for more inclusive societies focussed on economic development and progress....

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This article in the Economist provides a detailed account on women in the U.S. armed forces. France, the Netherlands, Australia and Canada exceed the U.S. in the percentage of women in the armed forces. The U.S. is at about 15%. This is a good time for women to join the armed forces as rules are being put in place to protect women from sexual assault, women are increasingly accepted in combat units and are accepted for training in the U.S. Army's elite ranger school. Women are in senior positions in the Navy and Air Force. Getting the best people, intellectually capable as well as pysically capable is a challenge for the new forces. Technology has changed the nature of war, and intelligence, preparation, strategy are critical elements for success. Much needs to be done, as the article at about the same time in the NYT about Lieutenant Courtney shows to get intellectually capable women to stay and invigorate the forces. As this article does to some degree the emphasis on physical prowess, and the lack of enough women in the forces to create pressure to create a better environment for women, act as inhibiting factors. The rules are still set in a way that provides less psychic support for women than they do for men. Some of the psychic stress shows up in the higher rate of single parents for female service members, with 12% of active duty women bringing up children on their own compared to 4% for men, and the failure of marraiges of female service members 3 times the rate for male service members....