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The stories of Dylan Roberts, 32 years, in Rockford, Illinois and Alfred Butt, 42 years,in Hohenlockenstedt, Germany. Roberts lost his job at aChrysler plant in Belvidere, near Rockford, Illinois, and Butt lost his job a German auto parts maker. Roberts gets a $64,000 severance package, and 59 weeks of unemployment insurance, with apossible additional 13 weeks, with monthly check of $1426 that is 27% of his income of $64,000 a year when employed. attribute 33 weeks of the 59 weeks to the stimulus measures of President Obama. Butt has 4 months as atransfer worker at full pay, which can be as long as 1 year, then he has till May 2010 at 80% of his pay when employed full time of 2700 euros amonth. The transfer company gives job training and job hunting advice. He continues getting his medical insurance benefits which are provided by the state. Roberts loses his health insurance with his job, and hopes to pay his expenses for a2 bedroom apartment with his girlfriend who makes close to $1500 as an elementary school teacher. He will take a2 year electronic engineering course with a local college using $6000 from Obama's Dislocated Worker's Program. But he isn't sure if he can do his studies after one year when his unemployment benefits expire. Butt can afford to take a vacation to Cyprus and his lifestyle is not much affected he says. His wife works as a nurse at a rheumatism clinic. Butt is like the 64% of Germans who say the crisis is not affecting them personally. Roberts is like the 87% of Americans who say this crisis id hurting them in their persdonal lives. To pay for the state funded benefits the total wage tax burdenas a percentage of labor costs for Butt is 52% in Germany. FOr Roberts it is 30% in the USA. France is at 49% Spain at 39% and the UK at 34%. Germany's public expenditures for these labor benefits are 2.97% of GDP in 2006, the USA's are 0.38%. Spain and France are at 2.32% and the UK at 0.61%. This also explains why the impact in countries like Germany and Spain is not felt so badly as in the USA. In SPain there is also the lower mobility and the safety net of family support helping people cope making it possible to cope with 20% unemployment without serious distress and hardships. See the link to Spain's unemployed....

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The Logan lower cost model produced by Renault's Romanian affiliate Automobile Dacia SA is setting a pattern that is being looked at as a model for the future throughout Renault. It is combining the advantages of Japanese manufacturing methods with their attention to detail and good practices evident at Nissan, Renault's partner company, with the cost conscious methods evident in operations in a Renault joint venture with Mahindra and Mahindra of India. Dacia Automobile was a Soviet era plant, and Renault has modernized it but keeps a more labor intensive attitude with good basics operation here, in contrast to the trend to automate everything and use robots extensively that became popular at other plants in Europe, U.S., and Japan. As Renault managers in France and its overseas operations look at both the expanding markets for lower cost cars and the profitability of the Dacia plant in Romania, it is becoming a model to be imitated. Other plants built earlier now look overautomated and costly for manufacturing cars in a cost conscious pricing sensitive competitive market that automakers face. Logan is contributing to Renault's bottom line, and may help it in reaching the 6% in operating margins that is a new goal for Renault for 2009. Dacia Automobile S.A. initally owned 55% by Renault is now 99% owned by Renault. It has sales of 2 billion euros ,in 2007 with revenue increase of 30% over 2006. The profit was 100 million euros in 2007. It employs 14,000 workers and Renault's investment has reached 1 billion euros upto this point. The plant turns out 60 cars per hour. Compare this with a similiar investment by VW in a Soviet era Skoda automobile plant in the Czech Republic, where VW started with an inital investment in part ownership and ended up in full ownership of Skoda with large investments in modernizing Skoda, and the success in selling Skoda cars known for their good quality. The Skoda is expected to sell at the million dollar sales level in 2010 and is the fastest growing brand in Europe. It ties with Honda in quality surveys. ...

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Where on the global map has there been a far bigger runup in house prices than in the USA? Answer Ireland, and way bigger runup. The average house price went up to $490,000 at the beginning of 2007, an increase of 300% compared to 130% in the US over ten years, according to the IMF. Important to note that in Ireland home prices have dropped only 7%in 2007, even though according to the Economic and Social Research Institute 90,000 new homes were constructed in 2006 double the number needed which suggests large inventory buildup of homes. This is similiar to the situation in the USA where house prices have not dropped more than 10% and in some parts like the northeastern USA not yet dropped according to the National Association of Realtors considering February 2008 over February 2007. See the BW link. What this suggests is that there will be a slow unwinding of the housing price bubble and that it has a long way to go for prices to go down 20-30% as many experts expect. Ireland also shares other problems as we see in countries like Ireland that changed the rues to promote foreign investment, China for instance. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Ireland's hourly pay for manufacturing workers was an astounding $25.96 in 2006 compared to $23.82 in the USA and only $4.99 in Poland. See the link to China, BW April 7, 2008. China is seeing a jump in wages, according to one manufacturer in Hebei province the wages for unskilled workers is 1000 reminbi a month compared to 500 renminbi a month in Vietnam. Ireland is losing foreign investment from companies that are either closing plants or postpoing new investment. Groeth rates close to 6.5% on average for the last 10 years now is projected at 1.6% and will probably be negative when the full brunt of the housing crisis hits Ireland....

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Risk taking CEO's steps at Shell appear to be paying off as Shell's share price does better than BP's. Better results in hiring, technology, management streamlining, in sourcing non-conventional output, and Libyan deal coming after restructuring of its Russian exploration project, all show improved prospects at Shell after new CEO took over. Jeroen Van der Veer, who assumed the CEO position in 2004, is interviewed by Chip Cummins and Guy Kazan at it London headquarters. Van der Veer took over after the scandal involving Shell's overstating of its oil and as reserves. His early steps were to centralize decisionmaking, do away with the dual board structure based in the Hague and London, and increase hiring of technology professionals. 4500 midcareer professionals were hired in 2006, a new Chief Technology officer was appointed, and seven "chief scientists," creating a new focus on technology development and research, and making technology leadership a critical part of its strategy. Van der Veer also bet heavily on new projects, including a $20 billion oil and LNG project on the island of Sakhalin in Russian Far East, and a $18 billion gas field plus natural gas to diesel plant in Quatar. Jeroen Van der Veer is described by colleagues as a thoughtful but firm and straight talking, low profile guy who joined Shell in 1971, at age 24. He ran a large Dutch refinery, tackling labor problems and implementing an expansion. He has a passion for long distance skating, having twice finished a 200 kilometer race through 11 cities in the Netherlands....

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The tough job President Obama faces as he faces opposition from politicians who have interests to protect, and healthcare businesses with interests to protect. The President has to come up with a plan that is deficit neutral, because financial markets could see a healthcare bill that further widens the deficit as a signal for higher interest rates that would deepen the recession. At the same time each of the three sources of revenue puts him at loggerheads with political leaders in Congress or groups with interests to protect. Limiting income tax deductions for high earners could raise $267 billion in 10 years. It would require taxpayers in the top tax brackets deduct their mortgage interest, state and local taxes, and charitable donations, at the 28% tax rate instead of the 33% and 35% tax rates. The opposition is with democratic leaders that it would hurt charities, universities that depend on tax deductible donations, and taxpayers in high tax cities like New York city that are the home base of Democratic leaders. Yet only 1.4% of households would be affected says the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. The Center on Philanthropy at Indiana University, says charitable giving would decrease by 2%. The other opposition on this comes from the preference of Senators Baucus and Grassley, who head the Senate Finance Committee, for tax increases or cost savings to come from the health sector. Specifically they want to see the value of workers' employer provided health benefits subject to income taxes. It is a situation in which every sensible person admits the need for healthcare reform and would see the current pace of healthcare costs as unsustainable and dangerous; and after that will just go back to his group and try to preserve as much of the status quo as possible, so as not to disturb by much the benefits or compensation they have secured from the system over the years. Then there are political leaders in Congress with their own preferences, and Congressmen who are the subject of heavy lobbying by these interests. The administration and the Presidents job is to navigate this stream with a workable deficit neutral plan, without any requirement for any group to make sacrifices, and in some situations even small sacrifices for the public interest. Would charitable institutions be hurt that much, what if charitable institutions were exempted, why would other interests the try to obtain the same exemption. Its like the unions trying to keep the old unsustainable goldplated healthcare and other benefits at GM even as the ship was going down. Taxing employer provided employee health benefits as income would raise $2.5 trillion over a decade. The opposition here is from unions which are a force in the Democratic party and which count tax free health benefits as a legacy of the labor movement. Employer provided health insurance covers 160 million American employed and their dependents under the age of 65, so it has a wide impact. Yet most economists favor ending the tax break. They say it mainly goes to upper income taxpayers, and discourages cost consciousness among consumers of health care, thus encouraging excessive spending and surging health care costs. Senior Obama advisors, Peter Orszag, the budget director, and economist Jason Furman favor this approach. So do Republicans in Congress. Senators Baucus and Grassley are not asking for the complete removal of the tax break, what they want to see is capping the value of benefits that go untaxed. If the tax-free limit is $13,000, a policy worth $15,000 would pay income taxes on $2000. A third spource is to spend less on Medicare. About two thirds of the $948 billion in savings Mr Obama has proposed over 10 years comes from a number of reductions in Medicare spending. $177 billion comes from insurance companies bidding for government reimbursements for offering private plans to seniors. $106 billion comes from cutting the subsidies to hospitals serving the uninsured as universal coverage should remove this need. And $110 billion in reduced payments to hospitals and doctors because of productivity gains. A range of industries insurance companies, hospitals, doctors drugmakers, nursing homes, home health care companies and medical device makers, all stand to lose from reduced payments from Medicare and Medicaid. And these groups with interests to protect are another factor in this process of working out a healthcare plan. ...

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Prime minister Matteo Renzi focussed on some critical aspects of how other Europeans see the negotiations in the Greece bailout in June 2015. Considering that the EU had relaxed conditions for the surplus, a critical condition for reducing austerity programs in Greece and focussing on reforms, and considering the high unemployment not insisted on further cuts to the public sector employees, the conditions put forward focussing on reforms such as collection of taxes are seen as essental by other eurozone countries, including Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Renzi told II Sole 24 Ore- "The point is that Greece may get different conditions, but it has to abide by the rules. It's not the case that we have taken early retiremnt pensions away from the people of Italy just to allow the Greeks to have them! We have brought in labor reform, but it is not the case that, with our money, a number of Greek shipowners can continue not to pay taxes.. I could go on." If he went on he would cite the tax collection laws and methods in Italy which were changed under prime minister Monti to tackle tax evasion in Italy, with no effort to collect the $11 billion in estimated taxes that are not collected in Greece. Italy banned cash payment above 1000 euros and started a cross referencing initiative to tackle tax evasion under premier Monti. Greece took up tax evasion legislation in 2010 in parliament but opposition from many groups led to no action. In 2012 Labor minister Elsa Fornero broke down in tears as she described raising the retirement age for women to 66 in the private sector from 60, saying this was to prevent "collective impoverishment." Italy lacks childcare and older women help with childcare for grandchildren. Renzi was probably thinking of these changes in Italy. He went on to say- " If there is a mass get-out clause over the rules, what will happen in Spain in October? And in France in a year and half? It is one thing to ask for flexibility amid abidance by the rules. It is another thing to think that one is the craftiest of them all, in other words to be the that does not abide by the rules. We want them to save Greece. But the people of Greece also have to want that." On tax evasion and other issues for long term financial health Greece is seen as not following basic financial rules for sustaining the euro....

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Krugman in the NYT describes the dangers of plutocratic power to American democracy. When exercized by the Murdochs, the Elon Musks, the Harlan Crows of this world. He cites presidents who are Republican and broke up the large oil companies in the 1900's, Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909) who warned about "a small class of enormously wealthy and economically powerful men, whose chief object is to hold and increase their power." This is happening with the power of the so called Tech companies today and both parties seeking to break  up the Tech companies.  Then there is a Democratic president from this period Woodrow Wilson (1913-1921) who followed Theodore Roosevelt. Wilson says- "If there are men in this country who are big enough to own the government of the United States, they are going to own it." Theodore Roosevelt fought political machines such as Tammany Hall in New York as well as Rockefeller's Standard Oil Company. Wilson, a professor from Princeton, continued this tradition by protecting the working class of that time through his New Freedom campaign in 1913.  As a professor Wilson wrote the textbook The State used in colleges of that period, which set forth for the first time the basic idea of the state that we see today- "that forbids child labor, supervises the sanitary condition of factories, limits employment of women in occupations hurtful to their health, institutes official tests for the purity or quality of goods sold, that limits the hours of work in certain trades, and by a hundred and one limitations the power of unscrupulous or heartless men to outdo the scrupulous or merciful in trade or industry." Both were progressive Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. Wilson under his New Freedom platform for the 1913 election, asserted that it was the task of government "to make those adjustments of life that will put every man in a position to claim his rights as a normal human being." What president Biden is doing today is closest to what Wilson and Roosevelt were trying to achieve, and what Modi is doing today in India is also closest to what Wilson and Roosevelt were trying to achieve. In 1913 Wilson won 42% of the vote, Roosevelt 27% because of a split within the Republican party with Robert Taft. Wilson proposed breakup of oil companies to provide a level playing field for all companies. Similar decisions are being considered by president Biden today for Tech Companies. The future of both the US and India is being decided in these difficult times after a pandemic and in the middle of a European war, and a supply chain overconcentrated in one country in Asia. Wilson's idea "to put every man in a position to claim his rights as a normal human being," is being set forth by president Biden through the word "dignity," by Modi in India as "sab ka vikas, sab ke sath" (development for all, with all). The Greens and SPD's Scholz also set forth this idea as "dignity" for the worker for Germany.   ...

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Tata has a couple of things going for it to make a car at a price under $2500- a different vision behind it and a longer term idea of the market and its opportunities for Tata Motors. This is a personal vision of Ratan Tata, the last in the series of Tata family members who have run a company that was at the leading edge of industrialization in India since British times in the closing years of the 19th century. He sees this as a way to bring a car that is affordable to millions of Indians, the average Indian, just as his father and great grand father were pioneers in India's early steps towards industrialization. This also will serve another purpose. It will provide momentum to India's manufacturing base by putting India's auto industry on its way to sell cars by the millions in the next ten years. The cost was a challenge to Indian engineers ingenuity. It would help them develop something from scratch from a clean slate, and as he hoped reinvent the car if possible. The cost also was doable in India because of the wages paid to Indian engineers and workers are different. The entire cost structure with suppliers like Bosch providing the engine also and internet purchases of parts coming under a completely different way of doing business, again a reinvent of things. And the skimping on a lot of basics like a radio is possible in the Indian context where the inital target market is the scooter family of which in India there are millions. People who would simply be waiting for such a bare bones car, not see it as such because it is a great advance over a scooter even in terms of safety. What most people who have never been to India would not be able to grasp is that a whole family of four can be seen riding on a scooter or motorbike in India on weekends in Indian urban areas. Tata's idea of the market potential is the way it can ride the next stages of increasing incomes in India. Once it has come up with this car it can come up with enhanced versions with an airconditioning and radio and so on, and still price it way below competitors with Tata's quality and brand name and innovative design. As long as Tata can sell all the cars it makes it can expand production rapidly. Tata's costs for engineering a top selling model may be only 20% of the $350 million it costs western companies, according to Alix Partners, with savings of $300 to $1000 per car right there. Labor costs are about $1.20 per hour in India, less than what auto workers make in China, this provides more cost savings. Tata plans to supply kits to dealers who will do the final assembly in small workshops. This distribution strategy will save Tata another chunk of costs, as about 20% of the car's cost is in distribution in the USA. ...

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The SEC requirement that companies disclose the ratio between median worker pay and the pay of senior executives. The SEC says it is putting out the rule as part of implementing Dodd-Frank legislation to control excessive executive pay. Companies will be allowed to survey a fraction of their workforce as appropriate for companies with global operations. Executive pay will include pension benefits and stock options under the new rule. A WSJ chart using information from the University of Southern California and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows the ratio between what CEO's on average make and rank and file workers make remained at about 30 times in the post war period till about 1970, a period of rapid growth in the U.S. economy. By 1980 this climbed to about 60 times and exceeded 100 times by 1990. The period of stratospheric growth for CEO pay and extreme widening of the gap then occurs between 1990 and 2000. By 2000 the dot com boom- telecom boom and the internet- creates a surge in executive pay reaching over 500 times. This drops to about 280 times in 2008 and picks up again to reach about 320 times in 2011. Many of the poor business practices, the excessive leveraging and risktaking in the financial industry, take place against this background of excessive pay for senior executives. Some of that risk was passed on to others through such methods as securitization in the period leading to the 2008 financial crisis, so that executives were compensated with higher pay for taking excessive risk that they personally or their companies did not assume. Dodd-Frank legislation following the 2008 financial crisis sought to correct this imbalance by having pay information disclosed. The excessive pay has also coincided with an increase in the frequency of boom-bust cycles in the economy. The busts prompted the needs for intervention by the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, to drop interest rates more than would otherwise have happened during this decade, culminating in the huge bond purchases and monetary easing by the Bernanke Fed. The SEC under Mary Jo White is mindful of these distortions in the economy as a result of misallocation of resources based on excessive executive pay, and the need to take action before the next crisis. ...

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The $787 million settlement is for defamation damages for Dominion Voting Systems and its owner State Street Capital. On the fundamental issue of free and fair elections and freely elected governments, the settlement does not ask for an explicit statement by Fox News of misconduct. To understand what happened one has to look at the origins of the FNN in the Melbourne Herald of 1920-1950 under Keith Murdoch and the political controversy pursued to increase readership in that period. NYT says it has an implicit plea of "no contest" to several pre trial findings by the presiding judge Eric Davis- "The evidence does not support that Fox News Network television carried good faith disinterested reporting." NYT explains this as the judge saying that spreading a conspiracy theory does not fall under legally protected "news gathering." The presiding judge also decided that - "Evidence developed in this civil proceeding demonstrates that it is CRYSTAL clear none of the statements related to Dominion (by Fox News) are true." As the case is not going to trial readers may ask what happened not just in this case but in Fox News and Trump over the last decade that caused risks to the framework of democracy, of elections and transfer of power setup by the founding fathers. Fox News Network has its origins in the Melbourne Herald of the 1920-1950 period when Keith Murdoch setup the business in Australia that was expanded a generation later by Rupert Murdoch. Keith Murdoch was heavily influenced in his newspaper career by Lord Northcliffe, and by Lord Beaverbrook, a Canadian from New Brunswick, who both created a form of journalism that used political controversy to increase readership between the two world wars and in the period after that to 1957. The readership of these papers ran to 3-4 million which in that period in Britain or Australia was huge. Beaverbook took controversial positions that were built on his idea that the bloc Britain should represent was Canada, Australia and Britain with the British Empire, to have little to do with Europe or even the US. For this reason he did not support Britain's entry into the Second World War, or Britain joining in the Cold War against the Soviets till the Berlin Blockade. British prime minister Macmillan held back announcing Britain joining the European Economic Community (predecessor to the EU), because of the power of the Beaverbrook newspapers who were not interested in Europe. And British prime minister Clement Attlee faced the bitter opposition of Churchill and Beaverbrook/Northcliffe papers in sending Mountbatten to negotiate a transfer of power to India in 1947. The win of Labour's Clement Attlee in the 1951 election was opposed by Beaverbrook using the most sensational language. One can see the origins of what happened in the Trump period in the newspaper origins from the 1900-1957 period of Australian and British television networks. Of Keith Murdoch, National Biography of the Australian National University says- he supported the conservative stances of his time, was a remarkable entrepreneur and organizer of industry. Yet it also says his judgement was faulty. That he had "no real social philosophy"and lacked the originality to make useful contributions to public policy. Of Rupert Murdoch it can be said that he was also a remarkable entrepreneur and organizer of industry who built the newspaper business in Australia from one Adelaide paper left to him by Keith Murdoch. Yet his judgement proved faulty and there was no real concept of public policy or "real social philosophy." There is also the fact that like Beaverbrook from New Brunswick, Murdoch from western Australia was raised in the period of the British Empire and Commonwealth, had no real experience or grasp of the idea that is America set by the founding fathers and renewed by Lincoln, then FDR. An awareness of the origins of Murdoch's FNN is useful because it helps the American public close this chapter in the way democracies functioned in the past, and write better chapters for the future before us, keeping alive the idea that is America.     ...

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Unemployment in Spain among people ages 16-24 is 42.9%. This is the highest rate in Europe, and it is double the overall rate of 19.3% for Spain. By comparison the overall jobless rate in the USA for workers ages 16-24 is up to 19.1%. Why this high an unemployment rate for young workers? Greece has youth unemployment rate of 25%, while Ireland has a youth unemployment rate of 28.%, and Italy 26.9%. The rate in Poland is 21.2%, down from 35% a few years ago. In Eastern Europe overall the rate is 27.9%. This puts Spain at a level higher than Eastern European countries where youth unemployment has traditionally been higher. Worse, this is a result of a spike in unemployment from 17% at the height of the boom three years ago, to the currrent 43%. Alfonso Prieto, deputy secretary general of employment studies at the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, says this high rate in Spain is a result of a disproportionate share of Spanish youth employed on temporary contracts. During the boom years a large number of young workers joined a culture of temporary work, with the term "mil euristas," used for workers on 1000 euros a month. With the economy in trouble these were the first people laid off. Low skilled and immigrant workers who lost jobs are also reflected in the statistics, as Spain witnessed an influx of millions of immigrants during the boom. Still worse the government is under tremendous pressure from the EU and bond markets because its budget deficit reached 11% of GDP in 2011, and austerity measures are being adopted. Spain is spending 30 billion euros in unemployment benefits, but the money is not doing much to prepare workers for jobs in new industries or new vocations for the future. ...

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New legislation introduced in the U.S. Congress by Senators Orrin Hatch and Ron Wyden giving fast track and trade promotion authority to president Obama faces intense opposition from Democratic Party members of Congress. Only about a dozen House Democrats are considered to be supporting the legislation. Senator Schumer says "I don't believe in these agreements anymore, I've changed." Senator Warren on the left opposes the legislation. Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania says the legislation "as paving the way for another Nafta style deal that costs jobs." The deal if it passes the Senate, would face Republican opposition in the House where 50 or more Republicans are reported to be against the fast track approach and giving too much authority to president Obama without Congressional input. Fast track legislation would allow free trade pacts such as TPP to pass Congress without amendments or procedural delays. Labor groups and auto, other manufacturing companies, oppose the legislation because of the impact on manufacturing, West Coast groups in IT industries favor the legislation. Projections made by Petri, Plummer and Zhao at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, show the impact of Trans Pacific Pact (TPP) free trade pact would be $109 billion in added manufacturing imports to the U.S. to 2025 and $ 53 billion in exports, a net U.S. unfavorable of $56 billion. For IT and services sector the added U.S. exports to 2025 are projected at $42 billion and imports at $8 billion, for net $34 billion. U.S. favorable. Because of the dominant position of the U.S. in IT how much of this $42 billion might still happen without TPP. Other societal impacts also figure in the discussion, such as which sector needs the largest help and impacts the largest number of Americans for a sustained economic recovery in the future. ...

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Dubai's sewage system is not keeping up with the rest of the sewage system. For homes not connected to the sewage system the sewage is transferred by tanker trucks and sometimes tanker trucks will unload the sewage on desolate streets outside of town. Also treated sewage water is used in sprinklers in public parks in Dubai but this water may ot be healthy or have a bad odor so some residents ask their children to stay inside when the sprinklers go on. So where is the $300 billion thats supposedly going to be spent in the next 10 yeas and where is the money thats being spent now going for something as basic as sewage systems to be inadequately funded and tackled? It also shows the imbalances in development that go on side by side in the developig countries. In the rush for western style living a lot of other things may be happening or neglected. In China basic labor rights, food and drug safety, and pollution of the nation's water system, and contamination hazards were left untackled or ignored as a lot of money went into new infrastructure and western style living for those able to acquire it in the cities. Thus the substandard housing with neglect of safety inspections, supply of shoddy materials for building and the corruption which made a lot of this possible, especially painful when it came to collapsed school buildings in the Sichuan earthquake, is a recent reminder of these imbalances in the developing countries middle classes making a rush to acquire western standards of living. In Dubai sewage is rising by 25% a year and one sewage plant that is 30 years old is all that Dubai has to meet its expanding sewage needs!!!...

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The US ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach after Liberation Day- soon to be relics from the China Trade of yesterday. On April 9 US responded to China's 34% tariff with another 50% tariff of its own on China. The US tariff now stands at 104% to China's 84%. China says it won't back down and "will fight to the end." The US president DJT is now certain to restore world trade to the days before China entered the World Trade Organization and upended the world trade order leading to the deindustrialization of the US when US corporations followed Apple in 1998. With Tim  Cook in charge of Apple manufacturing in 1998 doing the first major act of outshoring the whole manufacturing base of a company to China. It was a strategy- to use the huge profits of a three punch approach- brand the product at the high end to command high price in the US through innovation and design (punch 1), followed by making using Chinese labor at low cost in China (punch 2), to generate the huge profits to create a virtuous cycle of investment from these profits to generate new cycle of growth (punch 3). What Apple gained, America's workers lost. This was sold by economists at the service of corporate narrative that it was good for America in the face of the facts showing just the reverse for 25 years 2000-2025. Soon almost the entire manufacturing base of the US was shipped out to China, or Chinese supply bases Vietnam. Japan fell in line and became a supplier to this China Manufacturing for the World. What started out as Microsoft demolishing Apple by 1998 and Apple using this 1-2-3 punch strategy turned into first a disaster for American workers, a loss of the working class leading to the loss of the middle class backbone of America, replaced by Silicon Valley and financial interests in New York City and disproportionate rewards to capital, the rural and small towns, cities across America's heartland thrown into decay and neglect.   ...

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An indepth look at Mexico, its assets, its huge potential and what is holding Mexico back. It ranks much higher than Brazil in many respects- higher investment as a fraction of its GDP, technical education, an easier place to do business, less regulation, better management talent, more industrialized. In 2010 Mexico had $400 billion of business with the U.S. With rising Chinese wages Mexico is an attractive place for foreign investment, with a hardworking and educated workforce. Mexico suffered badly during the 2008 recession in the U.S. It is trying to reduce its dependence on exports to the U.S in key areas such as the automotive industry. Exports to the U.S. by the automotive industry are now 65% of the total, and the auto industry association in Mexico is working to bring this figure to 50% by exporting to Latin America and Europe. Economic growth was 5.4% in 2010, and expected to be 4-5% in 2011. Drug violence may have reduced the growth by one percentage point according to some estimates. The think tank, Mexican Institute for Competitiveness, estimates that economic growth would be 2.5% percentage points higher if labor market and competition laws are changed, and the oil industry is opened up to foreign investment as happened in Brazil. A study by OECD and the Federal Competition Commission (CFC) of Mexico has shown that 31% of Mexican household spending goes to products operating in high price monopolistic or oligopolistic markets. The bottom ten percent spend even higher proportion of incomes, around 38%, for products supplied in such markets. This includes pharmaceuticals, airline travel, banking, and electricity. Taking on these cartels is a difficult task. The CFC is beginning to take the first steps in this direction, in what will be a long road to fair prices for Mexican consumers. Banking was opened to Wal-Mart. The collapse of Mexicana was an opportunity to auction landing slots to other airlines. An auction system has been developed by CFC for drugs. A new competition law sets penalties for collusion in pricing, with upto 10 years in jail. And Carlos Slim's telephone monopoly was fined $1 billion for its telecom monopoly practices. In 2009 the Calderon government shut down Luz y Fuerza, a state electricity company costing the governmment $3 billion in subsidies for an highly inefficient operation. ...

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Supply chains are unraveling in many industries with the tariffs imposed by president Trump on imports from China, and renegotiated trade deals with South Korea and other countries. The growth in the value of foreign value added was possible with cuts in tariffs in the period after 1990 and the emergence of China as a low cost manufacturer with cheap labor. Foreign value added increased from 20% in 1990 to 30% in 2011. The impact on factory towns and communities in the U.S. of trade in which the U.S. manufacturing declined as it shifted to China resulted in the surge in support for president Trump. The tariffs war with China is an effort to correct this imbalance. The result is a shift in supply chains away from China in some industries and gradual shift in others. Rising wages in China had already resulted in early shifts and the the environmental costs adding to this trend. President Trump temporarily suspended a threatened imposition of duties of 25% on $325 billion of Chinese imports. A renegotiated Nafta agreement with Mexico for automobile production and determination of U.S. based content and wages was designed to reset the relationship with Mexico and the auto supply chain for production in Mexico. A threat of tariffs on European auto imports to the U.S. is set for a decision in November. The trade dispute between Japan and South Korea and threat of tariffs also shows the effect this is having in other countries. With the U.S. looking at its own interest in the global supply chain and its advantage or disadvantage, industries and companies are not free to make decisions based on which country offers the best arrangement and deal for manufacturing. Notions of competitive advantage in the tech race with China are affecting the way the U.S. and European nations are acting. ...

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A recent book "The Spirit Level" has become popular in Britain. It says that countries with greater disparities in income also do worse in a number of social indicators, from higher murder rates to lower life expectancy. It also affects the consensus in society which is a necessary underpinning for sustained economic development and economic growth. Inequality when it affects the middle class and reduces the size of incomes in the middle, or creates stagnation in incomes, poses large risks for society and affects economic growth. In the US the home foreclosure crisis and the lack of bargaining power of wage earners in the middle class has created this problem. This is exacerbated by the banking crisis and bad loans in the banking system. Studies show that slow growth in college graduating rates in the USA after 1970 compared to the period 1900-1970, has increased inequality, especially with today's knowledge economy. Germany is also affected by this problem as wages for workers have remained stagnant with the labor reforms. Interestingly a combination of economic growth and payments to the poor have increased the size of the middle class and its incomes in Brazil. The austerity policies in Britain will affect incomes and income growth in Britain for the middle class. In China the gap is widening quickly between the urban areas and the rural areas. And the policy of residency permits- the hukou system-which limits internal mobility from rural areas to the cities and towns, makes the inequality all the more glaring. The lack of democratic election makes the situation worse in China compared to Brazil, because free elections in Brazil enabled leaders from the working classes such as Luiz Inacio Da Silva and Ms. Rousseff to emerge as heads of government. These leaders pursued policies that would explicitly bring a more shared prosperity in Brazil compared to the leadership in China. In China policies are determined by entrenched interests in its model of development- the state-owned companies and banks and their managers, local and government officials of the Communist party, and businesses with the networks and connections with the Communist party and local governments. This is why the ginni coefficient which measures inequality has dropped significantly in China, putting it in the rank of developing countries with poor records in equality. Inflation in China, India and Africa also affects the poor and lower middle classes to a greater extent. Current trends suggest that rebuilding the middle class in the developed countries and providing fairer distribution in developing countries will be of serious importance in coming years. Especially with the likelihood of more economic crises which tend to adversely affect the middle and lower classes disproportionately....

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In this interview with Alessandra Galloni of the WSJ following the June 28, 2012 European summit, Monti says Italian spreads with German bonds would be 1200 or something if the Berlusconi government were still in power. Monti later called Berlusconi to say he regretted the extrapolations on spreads mentioned in the intervew that could be seen as banal or abstract. This is taking the phrase out of the context as the comment was made in the context of a question by Galloni asking why Italian spreads were so high even after the actions taken by Monti to improve competitiveness including labor reforms. Monti's answer was that this was because markets are sensing that eurozone governance is weak, that though France has done less reform its spreads are low because people think Germany would never let France go. Monti makes the statement here that the agreement of Europe's political leaders that they would do whatever is necessary to save the euro after the eurozone June 2012 summit, including stabilizing the markets through EFSF/ESM instrument, gives the ECB the political and moral justification to engage in buying Italian and Spanish bonds to stabiize yields at acceptable levels. He just hopes the ECB does not wait till the night before the catastrophe (disintegration of the euro) before it acts, and does this slightly before that time. And his words to Merkel and Germany about the need for ECB interventions to stabilize yields are clearly stated- Merkel risks facing an Italian parliament that rejects Europe and the euro and is not a friend of Germany if the action is not taken.Throughout Monti remains committed to the idea of a economic and monetary union of Europe. To give up on the euro is to give up not just a currency but a civic culture. It is the most forceful statement of any European leader during the eurozone crisis....

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Questions are being raised about the lack of fairness in the cuts imposed in Greece - and the IMF acknowledges this- where the minimum wage was cut by 22%, but the most highly paid civil servants had their salaries cut by 10%. Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schauble told the German daily newspaper Der Tagesspiegel: "I really feel for the people of Greece. The vast majority now hard-hit by reform and austerity measures... can do nothing about the backup in reforms, the loss of competitiveness and the unproductive use of funds in the past." In Greece there is a separate wage scale for the highly paid public sector employees such as doctors, diplomats, professors, and uniformed personnel in the military and police. This is different from what the ministry bureaucrats, hospital support staff and local government administrators get paid. This group took only a 10% cut, even though it makes up one third of the payroll according to IMF and EU estimates. The cuts to the minimum wage were made to improve Greece's competitiveness and because in Greece during the last decade wages went up much higher compared to Germany. Brian Carney pointed out in a Journal article Feb. 14, 2012, that nominal private sector labor costs went up by 62% in Greece from 2000-2008 compared to 15% in Germany. Showing the nature of the fight to make the cuts more equitable, is the resistance to the IMF-EU insistence on cuts to the highest pensions which amounted to $178 million. In the end prime minister Papademos said the monthly pension of $1975 was reduced by $32 or 1.6%. The lack of fairness creates more uncertainty about the cuts as elections are expected in April, only 7-8 weeks from now, and fears that this may not hold when a new government is elected. For this reason the IMF-EU officials are considering putting the $170 billion bailout money in an escrow account....

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As auto sales decline in Spain, France, Italy and other parts of Europe auto companies are looking at improving efficiency and closing inefficient plants. Italy is tackling labor laws that prevented a revamping of the auto industry to improve productivity. New laws make it possible for companies like Fiat to hire or fire workers rather than having to place them on a state backed temporary layoff program that pays workers two thirds of their salaries while not working. Chrysler-Fiat CEO Marchionne sees sales dropping below 10 million units from the 13.1 million in 2011 if the euro were to disintegrate. With the higher efficiency of Fiat's plants in Poland and other parts of Eastern Europe, Marchionne is not willing to make any exceptions for the Italian system any longer. In 2009 Fiat's plant in Tychy, Poland, making the Fiat 500, made 600,000 cars with 6,100 workers, whereas the five largest Italian plants made 650,000 cars with 22,000 workers. Marchionne put forward his 5 year revamp of Italian operations in April 2010 with an investment of 16 billion euros. Unions were asked to agree to new work rules in exchange- shorter breaks, reduced absenteeism, doubling of overtime hours if needed, and pay tied to performance in addition to seniority. In the fall of 2010 Fiat shifted the production of the Fiat 500L to Serbia. Following this unions agreed to the new rules. One of the plants revamped was the Pomigliano plant which would turn out lower cost Pandas instead of the Alfa Romeos at a cost of 800 million euros to redesign the plant for efficient manufacturing. The new plant requires fewer workers and only 3000 of the 5000 workers at the plant have been hired. Priority was given to younger workers. Marchionne sees the revival of the manufacturing plants in Italy closely linked with his plan to import Italian cars to the American market because of the declining sales in Europe. The transformation of the auto industry and Chrysler was achieved by changing work rules and reducing labor costs. A similiar process is now underway in Italy....

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The new Australian budget is designed to generate a slight surplus from the A$44 billion deficit for the fiscal year ending June 30. This prepares the Australian government of Julia Gillard for elections in 2013. The budget depends on the mining boom to generate the tax revenues for planned economic growth of over 3% in 2012-2013. This is based on the large number of projects planned for investments in oil, gas and other energy projects, valued at US$456 billion. GE as supplier of turbines and other products to the Chevron-Total gas project and other projects in Australia, has sales in Australia match its sales level in China in 2012-2013. This gives an idea of the extent of the boom in the mining and energy sector. Even the widening trade deficit to A$1.59 in March 2012 reflects large imports for the mining sector. The weakness of this approach is that too much is dependent on the mining and offshore gas boom. Retail spending is weak and Australia is increasingly looking like a two tier economy, subject to the boom and bust cycles that its mining companies have experienced in the past. A bubble in Australia's housing markets and uncertainties in the global economy pose other risks....