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In Germany's consensus based politics the term flip flop does not have the negative meaning it does in other countries. Chancellor Merkel is adept at presenting changes in policy as coming from careful thought and analysis. She has remained Chancellor for the longest period since Chancellor Kohl, doing this by co-opting the positions of other parties including the SPD. On refugees, atomic energy, same sex marraige, and other issues Merkel has adopted positions that reflect the majority of people.  As the magazine editors of Der Spiegel told Merkel in an interview she is the best chancellor the socialist SPD party ever had. Merkel has the unique ability of doing this and still sounding genuine in a way few leaders could. This may be the result of her background and life as the daughter of a pastor in East Germany who professed socialist ideals and yet was part of the opposition to the GDR regime and reflected changes in Germany as the Berlin Wall came down in 1990. Merkel joined the Democratic Awakening just as the German people in the east gave up on the communist regime. Merkel first major change was on the nuclear energy policy after the Fukushima disaster in Japan. Yet looking at it one can see that Merkel could present her change in belief as sincere. Under Merkel Germany has shifted away from nuclear energy and coal in a way no other nation has. It is now considered one of her most positive achievements in Germany. On the refugee crisis she also shifted her views on the need for enhanced security and on putting in place controls in an agreement with Turkey, addressing the causes of migration in home countries. As a result Merkel now has over 60% support in polls before this weeks election in Germany in September 2017. Contrast this with the sharp decline in support for Sarkozy and Hollande in France, Cameron and now Theresa May in Britain, and for other leaders in the U.S., and one can see how Merkel is different. It has much to do with sincerity and authenticity as a politician. Her favorite soup is potato soup, she drives a VW Golf small car, and lives modestly, shopping in the local grocery store. When it comes to protecting ordinary German people in what Germany owes in bailouts to indebted countries she could be tough with bankers and politicians. All this makes people of different political views see something valuable and to be respected in Angela Merkel, particularly at times like this. ...

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A new poll from YouGov shows the Conservative Party getting 310 seats and Labor Party at 257 seats. Labor would gain 30 seats and Conservatives lose 20 seats under this prediction. Conservatives would fall short of the majority of 326 seats needed. Support for Theresa May is slipping especially after announcing older people would have to take on more burden for care, dubbed the dementia tax by media. A coalition of Labor party with the Scottish National party (SNP) with 50 seats and the Liberal Democrats with 10 seats is now a possibility.

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This leader in The Economist magazine says a hard Brexit of the sort announced by Theresa May at a Conservative Party conference is clearly bad for Britain. It also point out that half of British people voted to remain. It is not clear that voters have voted for a hard Brexit, a soft Brexit, or voter alienation with elites and effects of years of austerity since the financial crisis have helped tilt the vote to Brexit. It points out that the rhetoric may be damaging Britain's chance of negotiating a Brexit that limits damage to GDP, which the Treasury estimates to be nearly twice the loss in GDP if a member of a single market as compared to leaving it. British government leaders may be overestimating the willingness of leaders of France, Germany and other countries to make concessions. By talking up to their party base politicians such as May may be putting German and French leaders to also toughen their positions on free movement as an integral principle of the European Union, and consequently of membership in a single market. ...

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A vote on Brexit giving parliament a bigger voice if no deal is reached with the EU was defeated narrowly in parliament with 324 for and 298 against. Tory members led by Mr. Grieve called for parliament to take part in future strategy if no deal is reached by March 2019. British prime minister Theresa May argued that this would weaken Britain's negotiating position with the EU in Brussels. Mr. Grieve and Tory dissenters agreed to support the government. The recent election with Labor winning 40% of the vote leaves the Conservative Party's Mrs. May dependent on a small number of MP's from Northern Ireland for her government to survive. Some members of May's cabinet feel cutting off Britain from the EU market will hurt the economy in their districts, and a junior minister resigned. 

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In a closely watched election Mr. Wilders of the far Right in Netherlands gains 20 seats, far behind centre right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy of prime minister Rutte who won 33 seats. The Dutch Green party which is strongly pro- Europe went from 4 seats to 14 seats, the Christian Democratic Appeal party gained 19 seats and the pro-European Democrats 66 party also gained 19 seats. In the 150 member parliament Rutte needs 76 seats to form a new coalition government, and he is likely to ally with these other parties to form a new government that supports strongly the European Union. This editorial in the NYT says the people of the Netherlands turned out in large numbers to support pro-European Union parties. Next the focus is on France and Marie Le Pen's challenge from the far Right. Cyber threats from Russia are seen as a way to discredit otherwise strong candidates, and the French government is taking this seriously. Chancellor Merkel said she "was very happy that a high turnout led to a very pro-European result," and president Hollande said this was "a clear victory against extremism."  ...

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Already lead US negotiator and ambassador to Ukraine Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg has created a miscomprehension on the US and European side as to who will participate in negotiations. Lack of experience in tough negotiations to end a conflict is showing as it must be evident that Ukraine and the European Council, the EU, would expect to be part of any negotiations that settle questions about the security of Europe and what kind of Europe emerges from the negotiations. The European problem comes from the European lack of resolve to set aside or settle internal divisive issues such as migration, privatization, globalization winners and losers, rural vs urban, that have created economic and political divisions in Europe to concentrate with unity on issues that have common interest. Bad policy as in the US from business and government to overconcentrate manufacturing in China, in Germany to overconcentrate energy supplies from one provider, are sources of the conflict and have taken years to fix alongside the pandemic. European leaders scramble to define their position after statements by US Defense minister Hegseth and US's Ukraine ambassador Kellogg that suggested direct talks US with Russia would leave out the EU and Ukraine. Hegseth stepped back from some comments. Marco Rubio, US Foreign Minister, says Ukraine will be at the negotiating table in talks the US holds with Russia. Macron meets with Scholz, EU's Tusk, and NATO's Rutte this week.  Ambassador Kellogg and lead negotiator had said to European leaders about their being at the negotiating table-  “I think that’s not going to happen.” The EU Council head Costa after meetings with European leaders says Europe's position is-“In a nutshell: There will be no credible and successful negotiations, no lasting peace, without Ukraine and without the European Union.” Further he said-  “It must guarantee that Russia will no longer be a threat to Ukraine, to Europe, to its neighbors,” he said. ...

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Faces of migrants to Germany as Germany sees the migrants as what German chancellor Merkel calls- "A huge national challenge, not only for days or months, but for a long period of time." German civil society shows openness, and German educational institutions offer support. About 800,000 refugees will be accepted in Germany in 2015, says Merkel. An adult migrant is given 143 euros a month for pocket money and 216 euros for basic needs, medical costs are covered. Children are taken care of or attend school while their parents applications are reviewed. Registered migrants are given housing and food. The system works like nowhere else in the world, as most migrants focus on getting to Germany. The condition of the migrants is desperate- one child had not eaten for 4 days. And local doctors examine migrants, with some referred to local hospitals.

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Douthat of the NYT describes the criticism of the U.S. and Canada for taking so few refugees from Syria, and responds by saying chancellor Merkel may have taken on greater challenges of assimilation of a new wave of Arab migrants than Germany can handle.

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The treatment of migrants from Syria and North Africa as they reach the Keleti train station in Budapest, Hungary, and seek to catch trains to Austria and Germany. The Hungarian government shuts down the train service west and migrants walk along the highway to Austria. Only then did the Hungarian government arrange for buses to take the migrants to Vienna. From Vienna migrants made Germany their final destination, where they are warmly welcomed by ordinary people, and the government of chancellor Merkel offers asylum to people from the war torn regions of North Africa and the Middle East.

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People from Denmark are known for fluency in English, and are some of the best non-native speakers of the English language. About 38 percent of courses at Danish universities are in English. Yet debate is shifting to the inflluence of immigrants in society as "pizza-Dansk" or "pizza-Danish" is spoken by Middle East immigrants at pizzerias. One Danish member of parliament from the DF Party is suggesting the government prevent the spread of "pizza-Dansk" and help preserve the Danish language spoken by 6 million people in the country. It is reflection of the anti-immigrant mood in Sweden, Denmark and other European countries, where parliamentary elections have given parties opposed to immigration a larger number of seats.

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The Economist says working age young people arriving as migrants from war torn areas such as Syria should be welcome in the EU, because the EU's society is aging. As the labor force declines in the EU, it will need younger workers to make up for the declining labor force and the large number of pensioners to be supported. Fears of terrorism could be overcome by having a strong screening process, and cultural assimilation can be speeded up by providing free language education and access to the university system, as in Germany. This would turn the Syrian refugee crisis into a plus for countries such as Germany, which have a large program for newcomers. The war in Syria is so deep and widespread, and emigrants have made a long and perilous journey, making asylum a credible reason.

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Europe has something that is just as bad as subprime mortgages that have troubled the US, its the bad debt of European banks to Eastern European emerging market countries. This plus the high indebtedness of companies in Western Europe is creating serious problems for the economies of western Europe. In addition to the property bubble in Ireland, the UK and Spain, Germany is facing falling demand for its exports as a result of the steep descent of the global economy, especially China. As a result of all this the EU is facing a problem of the magnitude of that faced by the US, if not worse. In much of Europe especially in Germany and the Eastern European countries what generates growth and jobs is exports. Three quarters of the cars made in Germany are exported, and many of the parts used in BMW's and VW's come from plants in the eastern european countries, some form Slovakia, Poland and from plants elsewhere in Eastern Europe. With the collapse of some Eastern European economies and serious problems in others these markets are shrinking. The same thing is happening to exports from Eastern European countries where factories there manufacturing goods for Western Europe are closing. And banks in the western European economies like UniCredit Group of Italy, Germany's Commerzbank, and Belgium's KBC Group have large loans outstanding in the eastern European countries to companies and consumers. And some of these countries have run up huge current account deficits. Bulgaria the deficit is 20% of GDP. Increasing the risk and hitting consumers in the east is that banks issued low rate mortgages and other laons in euros and swiss francs. With the Hungarian forint, Romanian leu, and other weaker currencies seeing big drops, the cost of repaying these loans has jumped. Instead of consumers being overstretched from overspending as in the USA, or facing foreclosures, these consumers are facing huge loan repayment problems from borrowing in other currencies. Morgan Stanley says more than half of the private debt in Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria is in foreign currency. And customers in Eastern European countries owe foreign banks loans equal to one third of their combined GDP, according to the Bank of Internatonal Settlements. A lot of these loans could end up turning into bad debt if the economies of Eastern Europe deteriorate further as consumers there pull back, factories close and job losses mount, and currency values drop even more. This would create huge problems for Western European banks and restrict lending in Western Europe as these banks make fewer loans creating more problems for Western European economies, in the same manner as ricotcheting effects have done in the USA....

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Loss of 1700 jobs, almost half of the workforce at Dell's Irish manufacturing plant in Limerick, Ireland. Ireland attracted multinationals with its 12.5% corporate tax rate, but higher labor and energy costs make Ireland less attractive than Poland. Dell is moving the manufacturing to Poland. Dell was the second largest foreign employer in Ireland.

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The rapidly changing demographics as the U.S. becomes more of a multicultural society. For the first time minority babies formed a majority in 2011 with 50.4% of new babies, according to the Census Bureau. The median age of the non-Hispanic White population is 42 compared to 28 for Hispanics. Hispanics are right at the child bearing age. This also raises the issue of how the U.S. will educate the minority population. Today 13% of Hispanics have college degrees, 18% of Blacks and 31% of Whites. High school graduation rates in places like New York City for Hispanics are lagging far behind other groups. The economic downturn after the 2008 financial crisis has worsened the educational prospects for Hispanics and other minorities. The education of minority children is essential to improve the competitiveness of the U.S. in a global economy, as the educational levels in emerging markets accelerates with more opportunities.

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Morello of the WP describes the situation in Afghanistan with about 10,000 U.S. troops remaining in the country and the Taliban refusing to continue negotiations started earlier. About one in five migrants to Europe are from Afghanistan as more educated people leave the country for better lives overseas. The Taliban is tapping into the discontent in the country with the large number of unemployed following the U.S. withdrawal. Morello says the poverty rate has increased to 49% by 2016.

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"Memories of a Nation," an exhibition on Germany and how it is viewed in Britain, first shown at the British Museum is now being shown in Germany at Martin-Gropius-Bau, from October 8 to Jan. 9, 2017. It gives Germans insights into their own history and how it is viewed in other countries such as Britain. The original exhibition was prepared from objects at the British Museum in 2014, to go with a BBC Radio 4 Series and a book by Neil MacGregor, who came up with the concept in the context of British-German relations. MacGregor, a former director of the British Museum, is now leading a cultural history museum in Berlin called the Humboldt Forum. About 200 objects were chosen to cover 600 years of German history. One of these objects fascinated the British- a hand wagon used by Germans expelled from former German territories to carry their belongings. About 14-16 million Germans were expelled. Other aspects that were shown are the cities of Konigsberg, Strasbourg, Prague and Basel, formerly having German history that has since faded. Also shown the fragmentation of Germany with many states, and the idea of decentralized government, compared to a more centralized Britain. ...