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Jack Horton of BBC Verify screens the former president Trump's speech at the Republican National Convention. “Our crime rate is going up, while crime statistics all over the world are going down".  Fact: FBI data shows crime down 6% and a drop in the murder rate by 13% in 2023. For the First Quarter of 2024 crime down by 15% and recorded murder rate down 26%. "We've had the worst inflation we've ever had under this person [Biden]. I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy . We will drill, baby, drill."  Fact: Inflation went up to 9.1% from 1.4% at the end of the Trump term in the first 2 years of of the Biden Administration by June 2022. Biden and Federal Reserves Powell brought this down to 3%. Explained: This inflation jump to 9% would have happened from supply chain in China for Trump administration as well. Trump's last year was 2019 the Covid pandemic started in January the lockdown by midyear meant sharp drop in demand and little room for inflation. The concentration of supply chain in China was the cause of the surge in inflation as China shut down and restarted late into 2022 causing shortages in factory parts and supplies. Biden focused on vaccination in 2020-2021. This inflation would have happened under Trump- this concentration of supply chain started with Reagan economic philosophy to ship production (and jobs) overseas, Clinton Bush Obama and Trump did little about it. Biden invested heavily in Make in America manufacturing and jobs at home. Biden and Powell did a good job of bringing this inflation down by 2023 to 3% before the European Union and UK. Younger voters don't know this they get their news from the internet and show little interest, see only that the low inflation under Trump and the higher inflation during the pandemic recovery under Biden and blame Biden. will Trump do better on inflation in 2024-2028. The WSJ does not think so its analysis shows inflation higher under Trump than Biden because of a planned 60% tax on imports from China. Trump follows Reagan/Friedman theory of the old Republican party of higher tax cuts for the wealthy, so no money is left for investing in American manufacturing and jobs as Biden free of this theory is able to do, leading to slowing growth with inflation under Trump.        ...

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The problems that hit the UK economy with the announcement of unfunded tax cuts were worsened by very poor communications, the cavalier attitude of the new Truss government and finance minister Kwarteng, and a lack of experience, says this report in the WSJ.The toxic mix of inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the US, and the conflicting messages from the Conservative party with critics within the Conservatives calling the step misguided, had a strong impact on financial markets. Yields on British government bonds jumped beyond that of Greece and Italy, and the British pound fell with large drops in its value falling to 1.03 to the US dollar. Only the intervention by the Bank of England helped recover the pound to $1.11 and yields that went up from 3.6% to over 5% to drop back down to 3.8%. Many other countries face the same high inflation and rising interest rates in the US, so that poorly managed political situations such as the leadership race in the Conservatives party in the UK can have damaging economic consequences. This is a point of caution for other countries economies and governments says the WSJ. Italy's new government coalition has managed to keep expectations of major changes to policy to the Draghi government to the minimum in anticipation of economic problems that could emerge with differences with the European Union, and to avoid poorly managed communications. This is true of all countries in the world and a reminder of the importance of correct messaging in financial markets, and taking a prudent role of funding extra spending programs. This was also done in the $360 billion Inflation Reduction Act and Climate bill of 2022 by the Biden administration. where the dollar spending was adequately accounted for with policies considered prudent to tackle climate change, support badly impacted segments of society, and new infrastructure. This is a learning lesson for other governments. ...

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One year after the tax cut analysis shows the effects were muted and most of the increase in business investment comes from the drop in energy prices. The U.S. economy grew 3% in 2018. The tax cut lowered the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35% and cut rates for closely held businesses. Analysis shows investment growth picking up from trends in 2016 and 2017.

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US- China trade relations 2025 and XI's rare earth minerals export restrictions response to US tariffs. DJT resonse was 100% tariff on China from 57%. After meeting Xi in Busan, South Korea, after the APEC meetings, US settled on 10% reduction in tariffs from the 57% tariffs on Chinese products down now to 47%. The 100% tariff was withdrawn by DJT and China's Xi settled on withdrawing restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals. The fentanyl tariffs are still in place and the WSJ editorial says not much is likely to happen on fentanyl action by China to stop exports of fentanyl that reach the US through Mexico. China says it will take in soyabeans exports. US signs agreement with Australia to develop alternative supplies of rare earth minerals. The WSJ says for tariffs action to work US should not tariff allies. Yet broad tariffs action was necessary as partners Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the EU, Canada and Mexico were also nations that created an unfair trade situation for the US. The US took action on all nations that take unfair advantage of free trade concepts to benefit them which also add to the credibility of tariffs as effort to restore fairness in world trade.  ...

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Officials of 130 countries met virtually to agree on a global minimum tax rate. A minimum tax rate of 15% would be paid by corporations in each of the countries in which they operate so that tax avoidance is prevented. The Group of 20 major economies including India and China also agreed to this change in taxation to ensure that all companies pay their fair share of taxes. It is also part of the Biden plan for tax revenue generation to fund the infrastructure and human needs in health, education and public services that were neglected for so long. US president Biden says- "This will level the playing field and also make America more competitive. And it will allow us to devote the additional revenue we raise to make generational investments, which are necessary to keep America's competitive edge razor sharp in today's global economy." This tax change was needed to prevent companies shopping for low tax locations such as Ireland. This kind of locating in low tax rate locations worked badly for the major G-20 economies for decades as it prevented the generation of revenues needed for essential services and infrastructure investments. Tax changes include Biden's plan to increase the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, and raise the minimum tax on US based companies foreign profits to 21% from 10.5%.  ...

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First quarter 2011 ends with the unemployment rate dropping to 8.8%.

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A rare story from NYT that brings together Nepalese farmers and Japanese importers of a rare wood bark for banknote paper. Only 40% of Japan's banking transactions are elctronic, most are using banknotes or cash. Bank notes are made of wood bark called mitsumata in traditional ways. As Japanese farmers grow less of this bark it was sourced from mountains in the eastern part of Nepal. See how Pasang Sherpa is trained by Japanese from importer Kanpou in Japan to grow this bark which is shipped in large containers weighing tons to Japanese ports from Kolkata.

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The Japanese stock market index Topix dropped 6.1 percent on August 2, 2024. What caused this is the Japanese yen going from 161 to the US dollar to 150. The strengthening of the yen comes as the markets sensed two things- one the US Fed considering a rate cut based on employment and inflation reports, and the Bank of Japan raising rates. The rate increase of the Bank of Japan leads to a shrinking of the wide interest rate gap between Japan and the US. That gap had shifted money in Japan in the direction of US holdings. On Aug 5 the Nikkei 22 Index dropped 12.2 percent. It rebounded on August 6 by 11%. By August 7 the Nikkei 225 index was up another 1.2 percent. The situation can be summed up by saying that the Nikkei settled into a situation which recognized some strengthening of the yen to 151 to the US dollar. The fundamentals for the US and for Japan have not changed.

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Jeannie Rice runs Marathons at 77 years and has amazing physiology. Aerobic fitness and endurance capacity of a 25 year old. Her inspiration is Joan Benoit Samuelson who won gold at the inaugural Olympic women's marathon in 1984. Joan Benoit who is 67 says now it is she who is inspired by Rice. When exercise is done at a good level over the adult lifespan it results in cardiovascular and physical endurance and capacity to perform at a high level.  Jeannie Benoit's diet- avoid sweets and fried foods and eat lots of salads, fresh vegetables, rice, fish and nuts., some cheese. Her passion: loves running and wants to inspire young people. She also goes out socially to have fun and relax. Her personal goal - to inspire older runners. She says- “I feel as young as when I was 50, and I’d like to be doing this well into my 80s. That’s my personal goal." ...

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The White House gives details of a new Trade Agreement with Indonesia. There will be zero tariffs on exports to Indonesia of US goods. Indonesia will have lower tariffs of 19% on most products, and higher duties of 40% on goods that are sent through Indonesia to evade tariffs such as from China. Indonesia will place no restrictions on export of rare earth minerals. Indonesia will remove non tariff barriers by action to accept U.S. safety regulations for automobiles, medical devices and pharmaceuticals, and remove preshipment inspections for US agricultural products.

Its significance is that Indonesia is a producer of rare earth minerals giving US full access. Indonesia has a large population of 250 million and this opens up markets for US farmers. It means US energy products and pharmaceuticals, and aircraft makers have access to this market. Because of far flung islands Indonesia will need more Boeing aircraft as it modernizes.

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Is the jobless rate in Liverpool, in the one time industrial heartland of Britain about 6% or counting the hidden jobless close to 13%. Is the unemployment rate much higher than the 3% in official statistics for Britain because official statistics do not include the hidden jobless. Learn more about this astonishing quirk in the statistics that distorts reality about social conditions. None less than the OECD, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development and the Center for cities thinkt tank is of the view that 3 million people are missing from the official jobless figures. The OECD report says that when these 3 million people are counted the UK's unemployment or jobless rate is about 13.2% or abut 4.3 million people. This report shows that the austerity policies of the last ten years in Britain have bit by bit hurt people's chances of finding work.  The OECD/Centre for Cities study shows something else that is striking- it says Liverpool has the highest rate of hidden jobless in its study, with about 20% of working age adults out of work compared to an official rate of 5.8%. The mayor of the Liverpool region, Steve Rotheram, sitting in his office overlooking the Albert Dock on the banks of the Mersey river, where Britain's mighty shipbuilding industry once dominated and now in decay, says sanctioning people does not work,  a decade of cuts have done damage, and that his authority runs Households into Work, in an attempt to treat people as human beings first to get a better response. The government job centres tend to focus on people 25-35, says food bank and job support charity at the Anglican Cathedral on a ridge overlooking the Mersey. That means a lot of people in their forties and fifties are left out. ...

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China faces the problem of an ageing population as births decline and their are fewer young people to support senior citizens. The shift to a two child limit after the policy limiting children to one per couple has not accomplished the goal of restoring the birth rate. The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the president Xi Jinping have taken the decision to allow three children per family.  This comes at a time when the old policy meant a fine of 10 times the disposable income for having a third child. The law was not enforced in all regions but acted to deter larger families. Yet there is a cultural effect of decades of having smaller families that will not be easily overcome with a change in the law. In Latin America smaller families are the result of decades of cultural change towards smaller families. Young people are increasingly aware of the cost of raising and educating an additional child, and the effect on the standard of living. Experts say it is too costly to raise another child  and housing is not cheap in China.  This discussion with 3 billion comments over Weibo in the discussion of this policy in China last week, misses a more obvious point from the graph shown in this report in The Guardian. That graph shows the curve for the birth rate in 2019 dropping faster in South Korea and Japan than in China, so that in 2019 the birth rate in Japan and South Korea was lower than in China. This shows that even without a one child policy the birth rate in Chia would be closer to that of South Korea after industrialization progressed and society experienced profound cultural and economic change. Japan today has the lowest birth rate in Asia. The Latin American experience also confirms this shift to small families. ...

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India food supply distribution network involves farmers selling to wholesalers who sell to retailers with about 12.8 million small retailers with shops reaching consumers. Millions of farmers with small plots need workers to harvest their crops. Mechanization of farms is not as widespread as needed, and labour is used instead of forklift trucks in handling of agricultural produce to be loaded onto trucks. And millions of these retailers need workers to pickup the food supplies (wheat, rice, pulse and vegetables). The virus has scared off a lot of laborers needed for this supply system to work from farms to shops. The government is maintaining the basic supplies of wheat, rice and pulses at this time. It has given free rice and wheat where needed and distributed wheat and rice at minimal cost to the public. Yet the system is facing bottlenecks of labor and more needs to be done to maintain smooth flow of supplies. The mechanization of agriculture and distribution is sorely lacking at this time.     ...

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Hospitals across Paris are stockpiling drugs and protective equipment to tackle a second wave of coronavirus. About 163 deaths were reported in France on October 20, up 50% from the 100 deaths average the previous week. During early April the deaths in France were about 400 to 600 a day.  Spain is drawing "elasticity plans" to add more beds for coronavirus. In Lombardy region of Italy hit for the second time similar plans are being made as Italy records 70 deaths a day. 

The head of the Delafontaine hospital ICU unit in Saint Denis suburb of Paris says the first wave left the staff exhausted and he finds it hard to imagine having to go through it all once again. ICU beds in Liverpool England are 95% occupied, in Madrid 39%, in Paris about 50%. Poland and Czech Republic are being hit hard in the second wave after avoiding the worst of the first wave.

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This report in WSJ shows what offices would look like in a coronavirus economic reopening. Till a vaccine is developed in about one year from now what will the gradual reopening look like?   It shows a cafeteria at a company in Seoul with plastic shields separating each person, the Amsterdam office concept of six foot distancing offices at Cushman & Wakefield. This real estate company manages 800 million square feet in China real estate. It has developed a 300 page manual on safely reopening offices with every detail possible. Toyota plants will run at slower speeds because of large drop in demand, with plants reconfigured to maintain social distancing. Many companies are doing this now when it is easier to do without people. Protocols such as onsite health screenings are being integrated. A Knotel app  will add features for office tenants that gives employers the option to track some employee movements and trace their contacts to prevent illness. For sports and event venues the challenge is sanitation and cleanliness. Adding janitorial cleaning shifts and making food grab and go, cashless transactions and protective shields. Schools and colleges face a challenge of how many students to let in, and how many to seat and how, dorms with one room one student, and so on. One college in Maine is planning for thinning the students on campus, rotating students with shorter term modules, more online instruction.  ...