LyrArc Article Gist
This report in WSJ shows a generational problem that is creating a shortage of workers in Vietnam and China, that will require factory owners to increase wages significantly. US and European government policy supports these higher wages so that some of the manufacturing can be returned to bring jobs back home.   Younger workers do not want to spend much of their lives behind factory walls, and prefer less strenuous jobs shorter working hours in the services sector. They are having fewer children and at later ages than parents, resulting in less pressure to work in their 20's for a steady income. Factories in Vietnam are offering glass walls, yoga classes, improving cafeteria food, and offering kindergarden for worker children to attract workers.  In China there is 21% urban youth unemployment at a time of factory shortages. South Asian countries such as Bangladesh have infrastructure problems, and in India factories are finding it difficult to sign up workers. In the next 2 years this will result in costlier goods in US and EU, over 3-5 years this will bring many jobs back to the home countries. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A new study published in JAMA, Journal of the American Medical Association, shows that quality of diet is critical to lose weight. It is also an intuitively sensible idea. The more you cut back on bad foods- lots of processed high sugar and high calories in processed or packaged foods- the better off you are. The more fruits and vegetable take its place, the more likely you are to lose some of the weight. It is also a sustainable strategy as the vegetables and fruits have other positive effects making it possible to permanently shift to better lifestyles as part of an overall cultural change that includes exercizing regularly. Nutrition experts at the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University say this is the way to go. The strange thing is that such simple and basic ideas as restoring the proper role of healthy foods in our diet require such detailed studies. Packaged and processed foods of today are part of an industry that did not exist a hundred years ago. Common sense and intuitive ideas about what is good for us can lead us to the right action, including an awareness that food eating habits have simply deteriorated and become corrupted in today's busy world. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Lower volatility in oil prices as a result of a new stream of shale oil supplies at competitive prices is good for oil producers and for consumers. This report in the WSJ shows that volatility and swings in oil prices have gone down with the ability of shale producers to respond to price signals or geopolitical situations and increase supplies. Shale producers can increase supplies in months compared to the years it would take for oil producers in offshore drilling. The new technologies in shale rigs have tripled production since 2011 for the same number of rigs operating in the U.S. Permian Basin from West Texas to New Mexico. The core producers can now supply and be profitable at $40 a barrel.  Supply cuts from OPEC and Russia as currently the policy of both countries mean inventories do not rise too high. And geopolitical problems such as Yemeni attacks on Saudi oil facilities, the reinstated sanctions on Iran by the Trump administration that reduce oil supplies, Venezuela's problems, can be met by increased supplies from the U.S. shale industry in a short time to prevent inventories from dropping too much.      ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Wind and solar finally overtake coal in power generation for the European Union. 30% of EU electricity is now generated by wind and solar. Power generation from coal and gas dropped by 17% in first 6 months of 2024, resulting in one third drop in sector emissions, according to climate think tank Ember. In 13 member states power generation from solar and wind was higher than coal and gas with Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and Hungary achieving this for the first time. This makes US commitment to climate change all the more critical for 2024-2028. EU is a big contributor to emissions for climate change. It is also setting aggressive goals. This progress brings into view zero power from coal and gas.  Andrea Hahmann , scientist at Denmark technical University, author of one chapter in the IPCC report on energy systems says “The ‘crossing of the lines’ demonstrates that the EU’s electricity transition is possible, and we should not give in to pessimism. The renewable energy targets that must be met are substantial but achievable with the proper policy measures.” ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman says in NYT that inflation is receding and its causes lie mainly in pandemic related supply chain issues not fiscal efforts to fix dilapidated infrastructure, invest in fighting climate change, or help for needy workers and families.  He looks at Fed chair Jerome Powell’s discussion on inflation and this he says shows that fiscal policy or government spending to fight the pandemic and US needs for infrastructure and science/chips played at most a distinctly secondary role. What Krugman does not say is that this does not mean that inflation is not an issue for many families living from paycheck to paycheck. Harris clearly spelled out a Plan for housing costs and cost of food and this is the kind of effort needed to tackle this issue secondary or not in astatistical sense. Also not given recognition is that the government spending is changing the very nature of the US economy by creating more potential for it to grow till 2030 in a way that would not be possible if this investment by president Biden was not wisely made. One has only to look at Germany to see its crumbling rail system and failing infrastructure to see that what Biden did right and Merkel did wrong. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Pat McFadden is Minister for Inter-Governmental Relations. He says Keir Starmer wants to see migration numbers fall after it was shown that net migration to Britain was 906,000 in 2023. The number of migrants crossing the Channel is reported to reach 20,000 since Keir Starmer became prime minister on July 5, 2024, a period of 5 months. This shows Labour under Starmer is serious about migration and appalled at Conservative administrations not walking the talk. Caps placed under David Cameron to cap at tens of thousands were not followed. "Targets haven’t worked very well. We’ve got things we were saying about this in terms of getting net migration down. I don’t say targets don’t work in any circumstance but numerical targets on migration have not had a happy history in recent years." “But we do want legal migration to come down, we do want to train more of our own workers, we do want to get more people off welfare and into work.” The ebbs and flows of the economy and Britain's needs, culture and integration, always legal migration- this is policy for Britain under Keir Starmer and Labour. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
  John Foster Dulles view of Asia as stated in Foreign Affairs was very different from the decolonization happening in Asia and may ultimately brought the US into expansion of the Vietnam War without the necessary caution and the overthrow of elected governments in Iran. Donald Rumsfeld's view of the Middle East brought the US into the Sunni-Shia conflicts of the twentieth century. Two faculty members at South Korean Universities make a case for South Korea going nuclear in Foreign Affairs. Foreign Affairs reaches a small group of people who follow foreign affairs who carry on debates on issues that can lead to foreign wars. A wider debate than this is needed on vital issues that affect the 400 million people in the US and Canada and the 500 million in European Union and Britain. Articles in Foreign Affairs can tilt the direction of American policy leading to involvement in conflicts overseas which are not in the US interest instead of educating the population on international affairs which is something very different. George Washington and the founding fathers cautioned against such tendencies.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
NYT says DJT would use tariffs "as a economic sledgehammer to nations that refuse to meet his demands" and claims not to know what they are. Saying further that DJT has been far less clear about what those demands were. NYT has clearly not followed what DJT has said time and again. It is OK to use economic power when Canada and Mexico, and China have not taken the action they could have taken a long time back that they are now taking, and will take, after years of acting as if they could not see the fentanyl flows across its borders destroying America. These countries two land neighbors of the US and the last a country which from the open door policy against European colonial Empires and through the Joe Stillwell years in the War against Japanese colonialism in China, and in the years of China's building its economy in the 1990-2010 period, offered a helping hand. It makes the victim -and one that had reversed TR's advice about carrying big stick and speaking softly to its bitter regret- the bully, in the words of the NYT.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Class and the divide between rich and poor, educated and uneducated, urban and rural, in China. Even with rapid industrialization in the urban mostly coastal regions, a large number of China's people live in rural areas and in the hinterland away from the big cities. October 1, is the 60th anniversary of communist rule. With the internet and more communication of all types, incidents in which the rich and powerful are treated differently by the judicial system- and can get away with light sentences for wrongdoing or crimes- cause a great deal of anger among the people. In this traffic accident in Hangzhou, one of the rich people's kids- the young emperors is how they are referred to in Chinese- runs over and kills on the pavement a 25 year old telecom engineer from a rural area near Changsha. He had to work hard to get to college and become a engineer, and his parents struggled to pay his tution in college. The 20 year old racing car driver gets away with a light sentence of 3 years, and is suspected to have used a stand-in for the trial, who would also serve the sentence. The public in Hangzhou was upset about this and blogs all over China began to talk about this. The police initially covered up the incident, saying the speed was 43 mph. Only after public pressure did the police say it was double that, and that the Mitsubishi racer used by the rich kid was retrofitted for speed....

LyrArc Article Gist
Scholz loses a no confidence vote in parliament that he called so that new elections are held in 60 days according to federal German law.  He says it is a fundamental choice that German people need to make between pensions and investments for the future with support for the armed forces vs the policy that doe not plan to invest in the future with a debt brake limiting investment. The Free Democrats opposed SPD and Greens efforts to invest for 4 years. Why did Scholz continue. in this way with FDP CDU's Merz asks directly, was Scholz on another planet.  This has happened three times before- in 1972 when Wily Brandt got support for his Ostpolitik policy of better relations with Soviet Union and GDR and new mandate after planning a no confidence vote for a new election. He won with 46% of the vote and 91% of eligible voters voted. In 2005 Kohl was reelected after a no confidence vote he planned on his government to get a new mandate. Kohl of CDU won. In 2005 Gerhard Schroeder's social and economic reforms affected working class Germans- he called a no confidence vote to get a new mandate. This one Schroeder of SPD lost and it started Angela Merkel of CDU's 16 years in office. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia's Elvira Nabiullina, has helped Russia avoid the worst effects of the collapse in oil prices with the careful management of the economy. Russia has weathered the crisis better than most emerging markets, say experts, with policy moves that included a devaluation of the ruble, recapitalizing banks, increasing the share of public debt in Russian hands, and assistance to poorer sections of society. Following the last crisis in 2008 Russia built up its rainy day fund, the sovereign wealth fund, to $500 billon to help support the economy in difficult periods. Experts say, and Nabiullina concurs, that what is needed now even more than a rise in oil prices is improvement in business conditions and business climate to generate growth following high interest rates of 17% in 2014. Exceptional performance by an exceptional banker, known for her humility and experience through several crises, as deputy economy minister in 2000 and economy minister in 2007. Better relations with the European Union would do just that, particularly to increase foreign investment in Russia's economy, and restore the conditions for growth. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Central banks for the European Union, US and Britain show slight divergence in their approach to inflation. The Bank of England's Bailey increases interest rates in UK to 0.25% from 0.1% a slight increase to signal its direction more than a serious interest rate increase. In the US Fed chairman Powell indicates an intention to make 2-3 rate increases  in 2022 if the conditions require action. In the European Union Ms. Lagarde of the ECB will taper purchases to 20 billion euros a month later in 2022, and keep interest rates at minus -0.5%. The British pound and the euro gained slightly as a result. 

Supply chain issues and energy prices are a big part of the current inflation increases which were described as transitory by Mr. Powell. The persistence of this inflation led to recent moves by the central bank. At some point these pressures would ease leading to a long term policy approach that pushes for a robust economic recovery.

LyrArc Article Gist
In a speech at the Conservative Party Fall conference British prime minister Theresa May positions her party as an advocate for the working class against establishment views. She was critical of smug views that the current situation was acceptable for working class families concerned about immigration and jobs. She also pointed out that the policies of central banks including the Bank of England hurt working class families and savers." She pointed out the development that has also happened in the U.S. economy and other European countries as the Federal Reserve and the ECB cut rates to near zero. "People with assets have got richer. People without them have suffered. People with mortgages have found their debts cheaper. People with savings have found themselves poorer." Her response she said would be to "put the government at the service of those who found themselves poorer as a result of monetary policy." This follows May's first speech at 10 Downing Street where she referred to "the burning injustice."  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Negotiations in Qatar end with the signing of a peace agreement with the Taliban for the first time in two decades. President Trump persisted in the effort following stalled talks in September 2018. Talks went on for 18 months with Afghan American diplomat Khalizad appointed by president Trump to lead negotiations. The agreement was signed in Qatar by Khalizad and Mullah Baradar, in the presence of Secretary of State Pompeo. President Trump stated his view on Afghanistan and places such as Iraq in a New Delhi press conference recently- the U.S. could not act in a (permanent) police role in foreign countries. Efforts were made under previous presidents to end the conflict. President Trump persisted and made this a priority of his administration, following similar policy in Syria and Iraq, where strong deployment of American forces was followed by removal of forces. From beginning to end the deployment was planned in this way, so that resources could be used to improve capabilities for future needs. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. states face their biggest cash crisis since the Great Depression as a result of rapidly declining tax revenues with a state budget shortfall of $434 billion, says this report in the WSJ. This is larger than the 2019 K-12 education budget for every state combined, or more than twice the amount spent that year on state roads and transportation infrastructure. Rainy day funds will be exhausted by the loss in tax revenues after the pandemic closures of business. Nevada, Louisiana, New Jersey and Florida are the worst hit states. The result will be cutbacks in the future and more pressure on the retirement benefits for police, firefighters, teachers, government workers. Over 60% of the revenues of states come from sales and income taxes to meet the general operating funds. Drops in consumer spending and large job losses from the pandemic affect these revenues. Local government workforces were cut by 1 million people. In Michigan 31,000 state workers were furloughed 2 days per pay period for 10 weeks, and others were laid off. Rainy day funds set up after the 2008 crisis are exhausted. Only federal funds are keeping states afloat with a lot of uncertainty about 2021. The state budget director in Michigan calculated that even if the state got rid of 12 state departments including education environment and treasury, all reserves would be gone, and there would still be $1 billion budget shortfall. The rainy day funds set up after 2008 crisis accumulated $50 billion in U.S. states which have helped somewhat, with federal funds helping tackle shortfalls. Yet 2021 looms with huge shortfalls and expected cutbacks across the U.S. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Arrests were made in a UK police inquiry including the Treasurer of the SNP, into handling of over 600,000 pounds in donations for a second independence referendum used for running costs instead, say this report in The Guardian. This Guardian report by Libby Brooks shows outwardly successful the Scottish National Party was behind the scenes chaotic, according to members who are frustrated at what has happened since 2014. A big influx of Yes voting members changed the party after 2014, and unable to cope it simply continued to function without modernizing its mechanisms for the last decade. Another problem appeared to be that power was concentrated in the husband and wife couple of Murrell the party's former chief executive who helped the party's electoral prospects, and Sturgeon as deputy leader. For much of the time party insiders say loyalty to Sturgeon after she headed the government, meant there was no effort to modernize the party with the growth in membership, and no serious discussion about this. Stuff got steamrollered. One insider says party leaders were inexperienced in handling a party of this size and did not realize that these problems would build up. It also reflects the support given to challenger Kate Forbes for the leadership election. What it means for Britain is that Labour and the Conservatives can count on Scotland, formerly a base for Labour, to give the leading British parties a decent chance in the next election on cost of living and public services issues. Issues that are uppermost in the minds of people in Scotland, to gain an overall parliamentary majority to tackle the issues of health, education, public services and climate change after the pandemic. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Who is Caludia Sheinbaum, expected to be new president of Mexico? What would a Sheinbaum administration in Mexico look like? What would interaction with the US look like on immigration, the border and the economy? WSJ's Jose Cordoba, Santiago Perez and Steve Fisher try to answer these questions in this detailed report from Mexico City. Sheinbaum was mayor of Mexico City and was environmental chief during Lopez Obrador's term as Mayor of Mexico City. Obrador has remained popular throughout his 6 years as Mexican president with favorable ratings consistently of over 60%. Mexico limits a president to one six year term. Obrador's party Morena derives from Mexico's indigenous culture and reflects Mexico's history in the 20th century of passion for protecting its national assets including the oil industry from foreign domination or influence, and ardently seeks respect for dignity of Mexicans and Mexican culture. Under Obrador Mexico reached a level of living with organized crime gangs after decades of war against these gangs. The US needs support from Mexico for its border policies and control of border. Obrador was a son of a provincial shopkeeper and spent little time outside Mexico.  Sheinbaum sees him as her mentor after work supporting migrant welfare in California with Carlos Imaz, during a period when she finished doctoral work at UC Berkeley and Stanford. Her father was a chemical engineer and her mother a biology professor. Her grandparents were of East European Lithuanian and Bulgarian origin. Sheinbaum says she follows Obrador's principles, yet it will be Claudia that will run the government. Her policies include setting up 100 industrial parks for Mexico's development, and setting up professional police services to control crime throughout Mexico's different states. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Bernie Sanders who won in 23 states running for president says the American system is broken and this is why DJT won in 2026. He says Biden genuinely wanted to bring the changes to help workers. Other Democrats simply wanted to patch the system, a little here a little there. This he tells Reid Epstein of the NYT is not working and Bernie Sanders says DJT is right that the system is broken. Sanders excoriated billionaires in his speeches. Yet the tech billionaires at Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have over the last two decades supported Democrats and yet paid a lower tax rate than firemen, police, teachers. Apple paid less than 15%, Google less than 16%, Microsoft less than 18% and Amazon less than 9%. This also constitutes an oligarchy similar to the oil companies and pharmaceutical companies. This makes it difficult to have a fair system of taxes that can fund the Nation's crumbling infrastructure, its manufacturing, its chips and advanced technologies, health and education of children. Sanders is focusing his efforts or 2025 to 15 Congressional districts where Republicans won by very thin margins. And he is on his way to Iowa City and Omaha, Nebraska, where the margins were so thin to get his message to workers.  This interview also provides a hint of how DJT has approached the issues with a willingness to try unconventional approaches and people who did not fit the mold. RFK Jr. at Health, Tulsi Gabbard at Intelligence, Lori Chavez at Labor. Something that Democrats have failed to do to look at different ideas and find solutions to intractable problems in unconventional ways. Epstein asks why Tulsi Gabbard who supported Sanders bid for president is now in the DJT cabinet.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Affordable Care Act or Obamacare gave families of 4 with incomes of less than 125,000 or single income less than $60,000 a chance to buy insurance with federal subsidies. When these subsidies were increased under the IRA Act of president Biden the enrolment has doubled in the last 5 years to $24 million. These subsidies expire in 2025. Under the One Big Beautiful Act the policy of subsidies for ACA is not being renewed when it expires in 2025. This shows the band aid approach of Obama to healthcare and the lack of a comprehensive approach. The policy on migrants during the Obama and Biden administration also stretched public funding resources. Insurance companies now plant to make up for the los of subsidies from the government by raising prices for this subpopulation in a broken healthcare system in the US by 15-20%. This report in WSJ shows a young woman on ACA insurance in Illinois with a payment of $590 a month to Blue Cross of Illinois facing a new payment of $678, almost the size of a mortgage. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Criticism in China of president Xi Jinping mounts as the tariff war with the U.S. Trump administration escalates. The recent vote in the People's Congress abolishing term limits also comes under criticism.

Some of the criticism comes from the view that president Jinping adopted too high profile a role for China with the "Made in China 2025" and other policy that suggested China was trying to supplant the U.S. These critics suggest China should have adopted a low profile in such matters. Under previous administrations China preferred to act in a cooperative way. The issue about artificial islands in the South China Sea aggravated sensibilities of western nations without adding much to China's security, being another issue that disturbed U.S. relations with China.

 

LyrArc Article Gist
A dozen Conservative lawmakers including Nicky Morgan support a new customs union with the European Union. The bipartisan motion had the support  of the majority in Britain's parliament. Conservative lawmaker Nicky Morgan stated in parliament that "this country is being asked to experiment at other people's pleasure with a free trade policy where we do not know what the costs will be for constituents and businesses in this country." This reflects changing sentiment in Britain about the costs of Brexit supported by a part of the Conservative Party that includes Liam Fox and Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary.  There is a sense that Britain's economy will be hurt by Brexit and Britain leaving the European Union without any way to lessen the consequences of the break in trading relations.

LyrArc Article Gist
This analysis in the Wall Street Journal shows North Korea gaining from the cancellation of the meeting with North Korean leader Kim by president Trump. This makes the U.S as being less keen on dialogue. North Korea responded in a subdued tone saying it is willing to continue talks, and praised Mr. Trump's initial openness.

North Korea is seen as benefiting as China may have gained some leverage in how much it will act in enforcement of strict sanctions policies that pressured North Korea. North Korea has its nuclear facilities intact and has gained positive publicity from the Olympics and the meetings with South Korean leader Mr. Moon. North Korea sees the recent moves as its effort to be recognized as a nuclear power state, and is seen as continuing to follow this policy

LyrArc Article Gist
Efforts to ramp up the actions on stopping illegal migration in the EU after the US president describes the shaky situation in Europe. EU ministers agree on centralized list of safe states to return migrants- Bangladesh, India, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. EU plans to downgrade trade ties with countries that do not cooperate. The idea of return hubs outside the EU are proposed by Denmark. Denmark is now working with UK to help the UK develop a Denmark style policy that cuts down illegal migration after the unrest in Britain over asylum hotels. Failure to act quickly and have a comprehensive approach that works to reduce illegal migrants across borders can lead to governments such as the UK being voted out for other parties with strong anti-immigration stance as the mood shifts in Europe.

LyrArc Article Gist
In April 2012 the PBOC widened the trading range for the yuan to 1% from 0.5%. In Feb. 2014 the PBOC is expected to widen that trading range to 2%, as part of the PBOC's plan to gradually let the yuan trade freely. Increasing capital flows into China in 2013 and beginning of 2014 have led to appreciation of the yuan. To control one way appreciation the PBOC bought about $45 billion in foreign exchange in Dec. 2013, for the fifth month of net purchases. The yuan was at 6.1248 per dollar on Feb. 26, 2013. It has declined by 1.2% against the dollar from the beginning of 2014 to Feb 26. In 2013 the yuan gained 2.9%. The PBOC policy statements indicate that it sees the yuan at an "equilibrium level," or fair market value. The new policy to decrease its value slightly is designed to widen the trading range close to 2% and make trading a two way bet.

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan says Russian planes intruded into Japanese airspace for over 1 minute on February 7, 2013, over the island of Rishiri, near Hokkaido. F-2 aircraft from Japan's Self Defense Forces responded to the intrusion. The intrusion comes at the time of the Northern Territories Day when Japan's government reiterates its determination to press for return of the Northern Territories from Russia. Japan did not sign a peace agreement with Russia at the end of World War II after Russia refused to leave the islands. The islands are known as the four Kuril islands in Russia. Policy experts at Japan's National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies say the Russian intrusion was an attempt to test Japan after an incident where Chinese radar locked in on Japanese naval ships in the East China Sea. The effects on public opinion are likely to create support for prime minister Abe's effort to increase the budget for Japan's Self-Defense Forces.