LyrArc Article Gist
Peter Baker interviews Donald Rumsfeld.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Legislative Analyst's office, California's budget watchdog, estimates a budget shortfall of $25 billion through fiscal 2012, with a $6 billion shortfall for the current year. California is issuing bonds to make up the shortfall. A $10 billion offer of short term bonds generated decent demand according to fund managers. California will also issue $2 billion of Build America bonds. This is happening as the demand for municipal bonds is slowing and yields are rising.

LyrArc Article Gist
This picture essay in The Guardian shows the 700,000 additional people displaced inside Afghanistan in 2021 in addition to the 2.9 million displaced people by 2020. The British stayed out of Afghanistan except for brief forays from concern about Russia entering close to British India. Not much happened till Zahir Shah, the King of Afghanistan was seen as not doing much for a famine that struck the country in 1972. Drought struck much of the country in 1972 leading to the deaths of over 100,000 people from starvation. The King had ruled since 1933. And for a brief period his cousin and brother-in-law Daud Khan had actually run the administration between 1953 to 1963, before being dismissed with a new constitution adopted not allowing the royal family to rule the country without consulting parliament. The poor handling of famine relief led to the fall of the government appointed by King Zahir Shah in 1972. In 1973 Daud Khan violates this constitution and assumes control of the country. British India was in 1972 the India of the Nehru period, with his daughter Indira Gandhi the democratically elected prime minister. India fought a brief war with Pakistan in 1971 that set up the new nation of Bangladesh from territory of East Bengal. India preoccupied with Bangladesh refugees did not do what the British had done to keep outside powers out of Afghanistan and maintain a stable monarchy. Daoud Khan's repression of Communist party leaders led to Communist party military factions in the army taking over the country in 1978. The Afghan military led by officers in the army's Communist factions had little support in the traditional Islamic nature of the countryside for their land reforms. Leading to a rebellion and entry of Soviet troops under a friendship treaty signed in 1978 with Soviets under Leonid Brezhnev. It is this disrupting of the stability of the Afghan monarchy or the entry of Soviets or Americans or any other foreign influence that was carefully prevented in British India by Britain's India policy, which resulted in a period of peace and stability in that region. The events of 1974 with the fall of the monarchy, and the entry of Russia in 1978 broke two of the main rules the British had observed from 1750- a stable monarchy and no outside influence in Afghanistan. A policy the British also followed for Tibet. When China entered Tibet in 1950 Nehru was too preoccupied with the millions of refugees from Pakistan and failed to prepare in the years 1947-50 for following British policy on Tibet by preparing or anticipating the entry of foreign powers. The entry of China into Tibet in October 1950 led to the Sino India border war of 1962, and led to the current situation of India facing a Chinese army all along the border of Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh, Nepal and all the way in the Himalayas to Kashmir. The result has been billions of dollars spent by the US every week starving domestic priorities, as president Biden observed this week, and a burial place for empires. Ten years for Russia, and twenty for the US with the same result. It has left the whole region poorer and in humanitarian crisis for 50 years, and created crises for Russia, Pakistan, India, and the US. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This article has several information links for different groups. One to "Putin and Russian oil policy"- consolidating into state hands all the major oil properties by buying the privately held company holdings such as BP-TNK's Kovykta gas field. A link to remarks to the New York Times in an interview by Medvedev, deputy CEO of Gazprom. And a separate link to "How Russians see Themselves and the World around them." The other link is in comments by Surkov, Mr. Putin's deputy chief of staff at a news conference and Putin's remarks in pre-8 Summit television interviews. Content Links 1. Link To the group "How Russians See Themselves and the World." In remarks at a news conference, Vladislav Surkov, Putin's deputy chief of staff referred to Russia's desire to keep its national sovereignty in terms of how it manages its oil resources in Russian interest. Russia did not want to have to respond to western demands for access to its oil resources and oil and gas pipelines. Surkov pointed out that Russia was a free nation among other free nations and did not want to be controlled by outside interests. Putin in pre-summit television interviews had an interesting view of the criticism of Russian oil policy and its consolidation of oil resources into state hands, as well as the centralization of powers and putting media into state hands, and its new stance in foreign affairs. He told this to the French channel TF1: Putin suggested old views of Russia stemmed from outdated cold-war competition, and misguided colonial-era arrogance. If we go back 100 years and look through the newspapers, we see what arguments the colonial powers of that time used to justify their involvement in Africa and Asia. They justified their involvement with statements that is was about playing a civilizing role, the white man's burden, the need to civilize these people, Putin told TF1. All you have to do is change the words "civilizing" to "democratization" and then we see the application almost to a word of what the newspapers were saying in 1900 to day's world. These are the arguments one hears from our peers in the U.S. and Europe on democratization and democratic freedoms. This is remarkable statement in revealing how the post Berlin Wall 90's experience with democracy has soured Russians view of democracy. And the peculiar way Putin and other Russians see the western exhortations for openness, transparency, freedoms, self interested, motivated by gains for western economic interests, and disregarding Russian interests such as national pride, economic-higher energy prices to sustain growth, national sovereignty. The NYT article can be seen in the context of a strategy article in Foreign Affairs, July/August 2006, "Russia Leaves the West," by Dmitri Trenin. Trenin says the U.S. and Europe want a weak Russia that they can exploit and manipulate, which means Russia needs to assert itself and its own interests just like the U.S. and China. The idea presented by Deputy Director of Carnegie Moscow Center, echoes Putin's own suspicion of western interests and their "colonial era arrogance". Trenin's view is of a fundamental shift in Western-Russian relations: the United States and Europe could protest this change in Russia's foreign policy all they want but it will not matter. For Trenin the U.S. and Europe had to agree that the terms of the Western-Russian interaction, set after the collapse of the Soviet Union's collapse, was now fundamentally changed. 2. The second link is with the "Putinand Russian Oil Policy" group. It provides details about the Kovytkta field owned by BP-TNK and what is happening there. Alastair Ferguson, director of BP-TNK's gas operations describes the situation in a interview with NYT at his Moscow offices. Ferguson says it makes sense to do what Russia is doing if you are the Russian government. By letting BP-TKN build its own pipeline Russia would lose influence over gas prices. According to Gazprom allowing private companies to ship gas independently would drive down gas prices. And Ferguson says this gas field is huge and supplies going to China and rest of Asia could lower prices of liquefied natural gas in California. Medvedev, Gazprom's deputy CEO was also interviewed in his Moscow offices. Gazprom and the government would answer the question about export sales, not BP-TNK. Medvedev's view is that this is a technical question for Gazprom and Russia to decide and has little to do with the G-8....

LyrArc Article Gist
Missourians get it they supported raising minimum wage to $15, and said no to Harris. Nebraska approved minimum wage increase and sick leave by 75% , and said no to Harris. Harris did not mention both in her closing messaging or make it a major part of her message. Harris muddled economic message is attributed to influence of Tony West, her brother in law, legal counsel for Uber, and by her efforts to avoid the label placed on her by Wall Street interests that she was "communist" by moving closer to corporate interests. President Biden ran his campaign and presidency entirely with a single theme- against trickle down economics, saying it did not put much on his father's table, and "the middle class built America, not Wall Street, winning 82 million votes more than the 74.3 million for DJT in 2024, 12 million more than Harris, 8 million more than DJT.  This simple Harry Truman like message carried the day in 1948 against Republican Dewey's increasing popularity after weariness over FDR long run in office, and got Biden 12 million more votes than Harris in 2024 or 8 million more than Trump in 2024- 82.3 million votes for Biden 2020. DJT was elected in 2024 with a fewer number of votes than he got in 2020- 74.3 million votes in 2024 and 75 million in 2020. Bernie Sanders, Congressman from Vermont says- "People want to understand what’s going on in their lives. Trump gave them an explanation,” “He attributed all of our problems to undocumented immigrants. What is the Democratic explanation for why the gap between the rich and the poor is getting wider and working-class people are struggling? You tell me.”   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. financial sector is facing a future in which there will be lower revenues and a smaller number of jobs. A low interest rate environment does not help the banks. According to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, net revenue for the six largest U.S. banks will decline by 3.7% in the second quarter of 2011. As a result financial stocks in the U.S. have trailed the broader market in the last 9 of 11 months. The ratio of the price of the S&P 500 financials index to the S&P 500 stock index is less than 0.16. The only time it was less than 0.16 in the last two decades is during the January-April 2009 period when banks were facing a major financial crisis. Bank of America's stock was at a two year low on June 6. Tighter regulation, state and federal investigations, and higher capital requirements from the Fed, will affect revenues and jobs.

LyrArc Article Gist
Rob Copeland describes the comeback of Citadel hedge fund and its founder Ken Griffin. During the 2008 financial crisis the firm almost collapsed with $8 billion in losses. It recovered only by barring clients from withdrawing money for 10 months, and slowly selling distressed assets as the market recovered. It took over 3 years to make up losses. Leverage at the time was high with 3 dollars of borrowed money for $1 in client money. Leverage in 2015 is higher at $7 of borrowed money for $1 of client money. In 2012-2015 three year period, by taking aggressive positions early, Citadel has made $3 billion. It is now engaged in many investments including commodities, buying and selling securities for other investors, trading, fixed income, global equities. To offset the higher risk Citadel bets equally on up and down markets, so that only 52% of stock bets need to work, according to Griffin. Copeland shows the highly intense nature of the business, large turnover of managers, the atmosphere on the 37th floor of the Chicago offices with 500 scenarios being simulated of the hedge fund's investments, and analysts looking at 36 screens of 14,000 investment positions. After the 2008 financial crisis highly leveraged activity continues at Citadel, just as other hedge funds have pulled back and targeted lower returns in mid to high single digits, or to improve their image. Citadel assets increased from $16 billion to $26 billion since the beginning of 2014, with higher returns of over 25% in its main investment funds Kensington and Wellington in 2013. The average hedge fund made returns of 6.2% in 2013, according to analysis by firm Hedge Fund Research. As part of risk mitigation Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has joined the firm as advisor- in 2008 the Fed was questionning this type of highly leveraged activity that led to the collapse of Lehman and Bear Stearns. Of the top ten hedge funds only Millenium Management and Citadel had leverage this high in reports to the SEC under Dodd Frank of regulatory assets that include borrowings for investment, showing systemic risk that remains in the financial system....

LyrArc Article Gist
The leaders of India and China, Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping will meet at a 2 day summit in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, China, on April 27, 2018.  The meeting is significant because for the first time the 2 leaders will meet on a one on one basis for a significant part of the time without aides to get a better understanding of each other, and a get a sense of how to establish a good relationship between the 2 countries. Ma Jiali of the China Reform Forum, a think tank affiliated with the Communist Party's Central Party School says a better relationship would serve China's interests for regional calm, so that China can focus on internal issues of tackling poverty in the interior of China, tackle economic issues arising from a difficult trading relationship with the U.S. including the tariffs of the Trump administration.  China's leadership have not anticipated the decisions made by president Trump and the Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to take a strong stand on correcting an imbalance in trade that leads to about $1 billion in trade deficit each day for the U.S. with China. Previous administrations in the U.S. have not taken action. Also at issue in the U.S. China relationship is for the first time transfer of technology for "Made in China 2025." China's earlier advances were made with a free flow of technology from the U.S. and Europe.  The last time the two leaders met was in 2014. This time the issues of border relations in the Himalayas, and the relations with China in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean region, the growing relationship between Australia, U.S., India and Japan, are seen in a different light with the strong disagreements on trade relations with the U.S.  China sees a need for improving relations with India. Prime Minister Modi faces new elections in 2019 and the need to focus on infrastructure and development to win a second term in office for the ruling BJP Party.  A reduction in tensions serves the interest of both countries and leaders.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Spain provides 14 public holidays that are mostly Catholic holidays, and an additional 22 vacation days, which is similiar to the the EU average. Unlike the practice in the U.S. and Britain to have these holidays fall mostly on Fridays and Mondays, in Spain many of these holidays fall in the middle of the week. This disrupts productivity as Spaniards use bridge days or puentes to create long weekends during which many offices and factories are empty, disrupting productivity. Most companies cannot plan for meetings and work because counterparts may be using the bridge days during these holidays, and working with international clients is difficult and hard to explain. Spain's new prime minister is determined to increase Spain's competitiveness, and bring Spain to the level of competitiveness of countries that do well in this measure, including other European and Asian economies. He describes this in his book "En confianza. Mi vida y mi proyecto de cambio para Espana." ("In confidence. My life and project of change for Spain") In his inauguration address he said Spain should correct "the work calendar to make the rights of workers compatible with the competitiveness of our companies." Vacations are a sensitive issue in Spain because tourism generates 10% of GDP and employs 10% of the workers. Alberto Nadal, who addresses labor issues at the main business association in Spain, says a change of mentality is needed in Spain, and doing away with bridges shows Spain is grasping the idea that things should be done differently for the eurozone community of nations. This also shows some of the differences in the Iberian peninsula countries of Spain and Portugal, where the countries are embracing the change and there is less unrest even with high unemployment, as compared to Greece. In Greece the changes are being resisted by politically connected groups, where political parties enjoy little support and there is much unrest, making the project difficult. Mariana Rajoy, Sarkozy and Merkel are from centre right parties in Spain, France and Germany, and have had a close association for years before Rajoy was elected- during EU meetings of centre right parties, as is evident in Rajoy's book. They also share a similiar business and political orientation. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Microsoft chairman, Steve Ballmer, says Microsoft's total revenue in China is less than the revenue generated in the Netherlands, because of high rates of software piracy in China. Estimates of the percentage of all PC software that was pirated in China for 2010 are 78% for China, compared to 20% in the U.S. and 28% in the Netherlands. In China copies of Microsoft's Office and Windows programs are available on the street for $2 or $3.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ghosn hires Alain Dassas to be Chief Financial Officer of Nissan. Since 2003 Nissan did not have a CFO and Ghosn acted in that capacity. Ghosn has also given up overseeing the US market to concentrate on overall business of Renault-Nissan. It also rehired Mark McNabb to be in charge of the worldwide Infiniti business. Nissan is investing in plants in Morocco, Russia and India and expanding its overseas operations, even as its larger vehicles are not doing so well in the USA.

LyrArc Article Gist
Reforms planned by the administration of Naoto Kan in Japan. This includes a plan to make changes to social security, raising the consumption tax, and plans for a free trade area called the Trans-Pacific Partnership that includes America.

LyrArc Article Gist
The new government of prime minister Naoto Kan in Japan has tapped 2 business executives for posts as Ambassador to Greece and Ambassador to China. A former top executive at Nomura Securities heads for Greece, and former CEO of Itochu Corporation heads for Beijing. It is an effort to stay on top of changes in the global economy with experienced businessmen. Kan's idea is to harness the needs of Asian countries, finding solutions to problems, to raise the Japanese growth rate.

LyrArc Article Gist
The government of Mr Kan and his Democratic Party won 44 seats in the Upper House elections, compared to the opposition LDP's 51 seats. Kan will continue as Prime Minister but will control only the Lower House of Japan's parliament.