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The Biden $1.9 trillion aid package that cleared the US Congress on March 10, 2021 sets the stage for an economic rebound by 2022. OECD forecasts now show the US economy by the end of 2022 to be larger than forecast before the pandemic. In trade and other business policy the Biden administration is quietly following the changes made under the Trump administration to make the US position stronger in international trade and manufacturing, and remaking supply chains to meet US interests.

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This WSJ editorial looks at the dangers of legalization by American states of marijuana use and the cultural acceptance in the light of evidence about vaping illness. It is not just e-cigartettes but vaping from marijuana use that poses risks for the health of a whole generation. One argument for legalization used by politicians is that it would shrink the black market- the WSJ says there is little evidence of this. Only 16% of the 15.5 million pounds of marijuana grown in California is used in the state, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture. With cultural acceptance says the WSJ comes another major health crisis after the opioid crisis in the U.S.

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As part of the trade deal with the Trump administration China agreed to buy $54 billion of oil and liquified natural gas from the U.S. by the end of 2021. This is showing up in U.S. oil making up 7% of China's imports by mid September 2020 from 0.4% in January. By the endo of October forecasts show U.S. exporting 700,000 barrels a day to China. The U.S. is displacing Saudi and Middle East oil as Saudi exports now make up 15% of China's oil imports from 19%. This also shows that president Trump's trade deals are working to help balance trade with China and remove the disadvantageous position the U.S. was placed in by three previous administrations.

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Britain lifts the lockdown quickly after the Business Secretary and the Finance Minister warn of possible loss of 3 million jobsin the hospitality sector if it remains closed over the summer. Much of the job gains in the U.S. in April came from surprise additions of jobs in the hospitality sector.

Britain will now relax planning controls to allow pubs, restuarants and cafes to open outside areas for business. Outdoor weddings will now be permitted, with indoor weddings of upto 10 people allowed by early July. Places of worship, churches, open June 15, as do non-essential shops. 

The R rate has risen slightly yet it remains between 0.7 and 0.9. 

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Spain's global retail chain Zara will close 1200 stores or 16% of its outlets worldwide, as it shifts to selling more online. Zara says it will close smaller stores or stores where sales can be shifted to online. Spain says it will spend 1 billion euros on digital investments over 3 years. Inditex the company running Zara stores is known for its quick design and sourcing process which is done close to its Spanish headquarters.

About 78% of Inditex stores are now open, and sales which were down by 51% in May are now down 34%. For Inditex  online has done well, up 50% for the quarter and up 95% in May over April.

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Some figures on the foreclosure situation. 2.3 million Americans faced foreclosure proceedings in 2008, 81% increase over 2007. 860,000 properties were repossessed by lenders, more than double the 2007 level, according to RealtyTRac a foreclosure listing firm in Irvine,, California. Moody's Economy.com predicts the numbers to go up 18% in 2009 before slowing through 2011. That is 2.71 million foreclosures in 2009. To prevent the foreclosure levels from getting much worse as unemployment drops, the new administration plans to use upto $100 billion of the remaining $350 billion TARP funds to help homeowners. The 4 states hardest hit are Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida. More than 1.1 million properties there received foreclosure notices, almost half the total nationwide. The hardest hit areas are in California, with the metro areas worst hit in order are Stockton, California, Las Vegas, Nevada, Riverside and Bakersfield, California, and Phoenix. In December more than 303,000 properties nationwide received foreclosure notices, up 40% from year ago month, and 17% above November 2008. At 303,000 the yearly rate is 3.6 million foreclosures or higher for 2009, so the Moody's estimate for 2009 must take into account acceleration of steps to help homeowners with the new administration. Are the rather modest steps taken upto now helping? RealtyTrac analysts estimate that without a state law requiring lenders to give borrowers a 30 day warning before starting the foreclosure process, the foreclosures in California would be 10% higher. There are similiar state laws in Massachusetts and Maryland. Throughout 2008 few steps were taken by the Bush administration to slow foreclosures, even though Republican economists like Martin Feldstein repeatedly advocated this. See links to Feldstein and Sheila Bair of the FDIC who also advocated aggressive action, and providing the numbers to show that it was costlier for lenders to see borrowers go into foreclosure compared to reducing principal and interest payments significantly. ...

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About 40% of Americans are obese with BMI, body mass index of over 30. About 71% of Americans are overweight or obese with BMI over 25. This is a finding in a new report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This report does not mention a separate finding covered in the Guardian online newspaper showing less than 15% of Americans get the daily recommended intake of fruits and vegetables, crucial in preventing major diseases such as heart disease, cancer, diabetes. The cost to America for obesity related or weight related medical bills is estimated at $190 billion a year, in three years this would help renovate the aging U.S. infrastructure if people changed their habits and education was designed to help change the way Americans live. Even harder to understand is that only 2% of America's farmland grows fruits and vegetables, according to the Guardian report which says this would need to be 4% to meet the needs of the people in the U.S.. These are alarming facts and need more public awareness by this being getting widespread attention on the internet. ...

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its forecasts for GDP growth in Russia to 3.1% for 2012 and 3.3% for 2013. Moody's Investors Service warned that the Russian economy could contract 5% in the next 10-12 months and the ruble could depreciate by 30% if the eurozone crisis worsens.

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Daniel Yergin cites an estimate by IHS Cambridge Energy Associates which shows oil from shale and dense rock, which was about 1 million barrels a day in 2011, could reach 3 million barrels a day 2020. North Dakota where much of the production is taking place is now fourth in oil production in the U.S. after Texas, Alaska, and California, and is likely to move up to second place. U.S. imports of oil come primarily from Canada 25%, Mexico 11%, Venezuela 9%, and the Persian Gulf 16%. Canadian oil sands development has increased production and the completion of the Keystone pipeline will increase the share of oil imports from Canada. This is shifting the dynamic of oil away from the Persian Gulf, with the volatile politics in the region, and more towards North America.

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Nestle agreed to pay $11.85 billion for Pfizer's infant nutrition business. This business came with Pfizer's $68 billion acquisition of Wyeth Pharmaceutical. Nestle outbid Danone for the deal, paying what analysts say is a 20% premium. The deal was important for Nestle to secure its position in the fast growing infant nutrition business in China. With the acquisition Nestle would have a 9.7% market share in China, after Mead Johnson with 11.7%, and about tied with Danone at 9.8%. Nestle has a 17% share of the $27 billion market worldwide for baby milk formula, followed by Mead Johnson Nutrition with 15% and Danone with 13%, according to Euromonitor International. The deal was important for Nestle because its market share in China was small compared to its rivals- only 2.3%.

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The Case-Shiller Index shows a decline in housing prices of 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011. This follows a drop of 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Of the 20 cities in the index, 12 were at a post-bubble low in March 2011. The yearly drop for Minneapolis was 10%. Only Washington D.C. showed a rise in March and over the year. Housing prices are at 2002 levels. The Center for Economic and Policy Research estimates a decline of 6-8% for the rest of 2011. The excess supply of housing was estimated at 1.8 million units in April 2010 by the financial Blog Calculated Risk, which used 2010 census data for the estimate calculations. The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to 60.8 from a revised 66 in April 2011.

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The Chinese government raised the retail price of diesel by 18% to the equivalent of $3.58 a gallon, and the price of gasoline by 16% to $3.83 a gallon. Electricity prices and the price of jet fuel were also increased. The Chinese government decided that it could not provide subsidies for the rising prices of oil indefinitely even if the price increases mean higher inflation. Inflation was 7.7% in May 2008, and 8% in February, March and April. Prices for gasoline and diesel have been fixed in China since Nov 1, 2007, even though world oil prices have risen 45% in this period. Farmers were exempted from the price increase and tractors and farm equipment get priority allocation of fuel, three quake hit provinces of Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu are also exempt.

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As to financing of $6000 child tax credit costing about $100 billion a year as estimated by Office for Responsible Budget some of it would come from the $360 billion in tax savings over 10 years by Medicare negotiation of prices with Pharma, other would come from taxing corporations and high incomes at rates that are similar to what firemen and teachers pay of 20-25%. In his speech at North Carolina Aug 15, 2024 at Wake Tech in Raleigh, president Biden said- "You know how many billionaires there are in America?  There’s now a thousand billionaires.  You know what their average tax they pay — federal tax?  8.2 percent.  Anybody want to trade with a billionaire — their tax rate?  (Laughter.)  Well, guess what?  If they just paid 25 percent — it’s not the highest bracket by a longshot — 25 percent — do you know what that would do?  That would raise $40- — $400 billion over the next 10 years.  Imagine what we could do with that.  We could fundamentally sh- — slash the federal deficit.  We could make sure there’s home care.  We could do so many things — consequential — including finally making sure that we take care of Ukraine from that butcher Putin.  (Applause.) ...

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The creation of a two tier wage structure in Japan with different pay and benefits for Temporary workers is holding back consumption in Japan as temporaryworkers feel tooo insecure to spend much. And there are a substantial number of temporary workers, from 18% in 1987to 23% in 1997 and now 33% in 2007 about a third of the work force, with some workers as at Hino Motors making a mere $10 an hour.

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Prime minister Modi cites the successful Mars mission "Mangalayan" as showing India's technological capabilities and its ability to do things speedily at very low cost. For foreign investors India offers a stable politcal climate because his party has an absolute majority in parliament and controls many state governments, as well as being a democracy with a vibrant and internet connected young generation. A young population with 55% of the people under age 35 makes India the manufacturing powerhouse of the next two decades, said Modi. And the consumer base of over 1.2 billion people an attractive market. It was a rare combination of hands on salesmanship rarely seen ever on television from a prime minister. In one exceptional response about the condition of women, Modi said he personally led his ministers and legislators through Gujarat state's rural areas house to house in 45 degree centigrade summer heat on June 11-13 school opening days. He did this urging parents to send their daughters to school with the slogan "Send your daughter to school, Save a Girl." The result he said was 100% school enrollment in these rural areas for girls. A rare person at a special moment in India's history pushing the goals of development with uncommon tenacity....

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The impact of the Merck merger with Schering-Plough is seen with layoffs of about 15,000 company employees in 2010-2012. Eight research and eight manufacturing units will be closed.

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Intense emotion as the bells of Notre Dame ring in Paris after the renovation from the 2019 fire for the first time. A test that went on for 5 minutes. December 7 and 8 will have ceremonies for this opening. 14-15 million visitors are expected in 2025.

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Petrobras remains stuck in 2016 with a huge debt load of over $125 billion and a slump in oil prices. CEO Aldemir Bendine is a career government banker appointed by President Rousseff in 2015, as she faces impeachment proceedings for a corruption scandal involving Petrobras. His 11 months in office have been marked by disagreements with the board, with Bendine walking out from one meeting. Petrobras has changed chairmen twice in the 11 months. Bendine's goal of divesting assets worth $15 billion in 2016 may not be achievable say analysts, with other oil companies also divesting assets. As an outsider Bendine faces skepticism from insiders in the company. A oil strike went on for weeks before workers won a raise, resulting in lost production.

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India's Ministry of Finance predicts GDP growth of between 7 and 7.5% for 2018-2019, after faltering GDP growth in 2017-2018 following action on demonetization and introduction of a national Goods and Service Tax. The IMF predicts growth of 7.4% for India in 2018 compared to 6.8% in China in 2018, with growth of 7.8% predicted for India in 2019.  Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian says there are "robust and broad based signs of revival," though risks remain in rising oil prices and inflation. The level is below what it could be, yet robust considering the policy actions taken by the government for the long term such as the nationwide GST implementation, which was taken up by previous administrations of both parties in government but never implemented till 2017. In addition the government faces the tasks of recapitalization of banks, the issues of job creation as manufacturing in India in the global context is only beginning to take shape, and agrarian distress.  The new Budget takes up the issues facing rural areas of the country by compensating farmers to the extent of 150% of agricultural cost and introducing the largest health care security scheme in the world for poor families. This comes a year before new national elections. The Modi administrations's focus appears to be for taking steps that will generate growth over the long term and learning from errors, yet being bold enough to take the necessary action based on experience.   ...

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Rob Copeland describes the comeback of Citadel hedge fund and its founder Ken Griffin. During the 2008 financial crisis the firm almost collapsed with $8 billion in losses. It recovered only by barring clients from withdrawing money for 10 months, and slowly selling distressed assets as the market recovered. It took over 3 years to make up losses. Leverage at the time was high with 3 dollars of borrowed money for $1 in client money. Leverage in 2015 is higher at $7 of borrowed money for $1 of client money. In 2012-2015 three year period, by taking aggressive positions early, Citadel has made $3 billion. It is now engaged in many investments including commodities, buying and selling securities for other investors, trading, fixed income, global equities. To offset the higher risk Citadel bets equally on up and down markets, so that only 52% of stock bets need to work, according to Griffin. Copeland shows the highly intense nature of the business, large turnover of managers, the atmosphere on the 37th floor of the Chicago offices with 500 scenarios being simulated of the hedge fund's investments, and analysts looking at 36 screens of 14,000 investment positions. After the 2008 financial crisis highly leveraged activity continues at Citadel, just as other hedge funds have pulled back and targeted lower returns in mid to high single digits, or to improve their image. Citadel assets increased from $16 billion to $26 billion since the beginning of 2014, with higher returns of over 25% in its main investment funds Kensington and Wellington in 2013. The average hedge fund made returns of 6.2% in 2013, according to analysis by firm Hedge Fund Research. As part of risk mitigation Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has joined the firm as advisor- in 2008 the Fed was questionning this type of highly leveraged activity that led to the collapse of Lehman and Bear Stearns. Of the top ten hedge funds only Millenium Management and Citadel had leverage this high in reports to the SEC under Dodd Frank of regulatory assets that include borrowings for investment, showing systemic risk that remains in the financial system....

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Portugal leads the world in developing soccer players, no country has hundreds of soccer professional players all over the world. A country of just 10.3 million, the defending European champion, it has 292 professional players in 45 countries. Even Italy, another soccer crazy nation has only 105 pros abroad. Much of the development of soccer players from a very young age happens at sporting clubs Benefica, Porto, and Sporting. They act as scouts, finishing schools after rigorous practice, and places that transfer players to other clubs, all put together in one place with large soccer academies. The uniformity of coaching, and the primacy of soccer as a sport helps Portugal dominate soccer in a way that is not reflected in its size. Soccer fields in all directions is what you see at Benefica's training facilities in Portugal. 10 soccer pitches are not enough for the director of Benefica's youth academy. 10 different teams of exciting preteens to Portuguese pros need to practice every day.  Christiano Ronaldo was found at Sporting, Ricardo Carvalho at Porto. One boarding school at Benefica has 89 students who do their academic studies at the club and play soccer, attend classes in the morning and play in the afternoon. There are 3 different teams under 14. A pathway puts some of them into the senior squads or for them to become attractive enough to draw a large transfer fee outside Portugal. Five different talent centers and 200 people search for talent by watching under 10's or 12's play soccer games. Once they are chosen they move to Seixal, outside of Lisbon for training. The clubs essentially create value through selection and training for years in soccer academies within the clubs. The clubs support their activities by having a lower cost way to access talent at home, and by generating the hefty transfer fees. Since 2014-2015 season the surplus for Benefica is about 540 million euros. Costs are in the eight figures making it possible to generate a profit by having a sale of a few good players to lower profile teams such as Israel, even if they are not at the level of the top players in the Champions League.  ...

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The Indian rupee drops to a low of 62.13 in trading on Aug. 16, 2013. The Bombay Sensex index drops by 4%.

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Even with a lower troop committment, the new costs of $ 1 million a year for each soldier, threaten to wipe out the $26 billion in savings from Iraq in 2010. The overall military budget could go up by 10% from a high of $667 billion under the Bush administration to $734 billion. Head of the House Appropriations Committee, David Obey, of Wisconsin, says that sending more troops to Afghanistan would drain the Treasury, and "devour virtually any other priorities that the President or anyone in Congress had." Rep. John Murtha of Pennsylvania head of a House subcommitte on defense appropriations says that a majority of the 258 Democrats in Congress would vote against any bill to pay for more troops.

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More than half the calories Americans eat is from ultra processed foods- it makes RFK Jr. admonition "Eat Real Food" a Big Deal. It is all about eating whole foods and avoiding packaged foods and sweetened foods. It says NO to more than 10% of daily calories from added sugars. It says whole milk and yogurt is good for you.

“My message is clear,” Kennedy told a White House press briefing. “Eat real food.” The new Dietary Guidelines take out the pyramid used for 30 years and make the message clear and outright plain- avoid artificial foods, packaged foods, added sugars, ultra processed foods altogether. A plate now replaces the pyramid and shows a carton of whole milk at the top, a block of cheese, a steak., fruits and vegetables, whole grains.