LyrArc Article Gist
Th Obama administration's Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, is designed to provide relief to homeowners facing foreclosure. HAMP has also prevented these homes -from the seven million home loans that are delinquent -from joining the overall inventory of homes, and depressing home prices further. Eighteen months after HAMP was introduced, it looks like HAMP has failed to help homeowners to the extent needed to revive housing. Of the 1.3 million modifications extended to homeowners, about half have been cancelled, and about one third or 422,000 homeowners have received permanent loan modifications. The results for July 2010 show that it is slowing down even more. The number of homeowners receiving modifications in July is growing at a much slower rate. 17,000 new trial modifications were started in July, 2010, but 5 times that number of loan modifications were cancelled. HAMP has reduced the montly payment through a lower interest rate and longer term, with the average borrower receiving a montly modification of $500. But even with lower payments and permanent modifications homeowners still have lots of debt. The median rato of total debt payments to pretax income is around 63.5%. And analysts estimate that 20% of borrowers with permanent modifications will re-default. The program had aroused huge expectations, hoping to help 3 million homeowners. Which is why Professor Kenneth Rosen, of the University of California, Berkeley, considers the results embarrassing for the Obama administration. Adding that the Obama administration should be ashamed of these results after all the hopes that were aroused for real help to homeowners. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank appears before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament. He said the ECB had resumed normal lending to Greece's four major banks after the 18 billion euro recapitalization of the Greek banks by the government of Greece using bailout funds assigned for this purpose. Draghi tod the parliament: "The ECB will continue lending to solvent banks. We will avoid bank runs on solvent banks." At the same time he asked the EU to setup a deposit insurance fund for European banks and regulation of banks at the European level. On the actions taken by European leaders Draghi had strong criticism for the slow response always one step behind action needed and a day late, saying: "The next step is for our leaders to clarify what is the vision for a certain number of years from now. The sooner this has been specified the better. Dispel this fog." He described the configuration for the eurozone of the last ten years as unsustainable unless steps are taken, with leaders having to decide quickly what kind of eurozone they want to see. On Bankia's recapitalization by the Spanish government, Draghi said everybody winds up doing the right thing after many delays at the highest possible cost and price. It showed the need for centralization of supervision at the Europe wide level because Spain took too long to tackle the bad real estate loans at Bankia....

LyrArc Article Gist
United with subsidiaries United Airlines and Continental Airlines had $6.8 billion in liquidity as of June 30, 2014. American Airlines after the merger with US Airways has $9.4 billion unrestricted cash by July 2014. Mr. Parker, the CEO of American, plans to prepay $2.8 billion in debt and aircraft lease payments, place $600 million more than required into pension contributions, and start a dividend and share buyback. Airline consolidation into 4 major carriers, cutting unpofitable hubs and routes, filling planes to capacity, and charging for better seating, snacks and other amenities, are leading to record profits for the U.S. airline industry.

LyrArc Article Gist
Saudi Arabia's strategic moves at the OPE pricing meeting in Nov. 2014. Saudis push for keeping the production levels as they are, not making any cuts. Analysts say the Saudis are aware other OPEC countries and other producers outside OPEC such as Russia, are not likely to make cuts in production as they face severe budget constraints- especially Venezuela, Iran, Russia. In this situation they have decided to take a wait and see approach to see where prices are headed in coming months. A price of $60 for Brent crude is likely to lead to cuts, according to some analysts.

LyrArc Article Gist
The number of households without a car increased the fastest in Detroit of any city in the U.S. from 2007 to 2012- by 5% to 26%. In a city which neglected to put in a rail system, many residents endure subzero temperatures for long waits and long commutes to job locations in the winter of 2014.

LyrArc Article Gist
Casey points to the co-dependency between stock market investors in the U.S. and the Bernanke Federal Reserve. The stock market slumped in July 2013 and then hit new highs when Fed chairman Bernanke clarified that monetary policy will contiue to be accomodative for a long period with rates low even as the Fed tapers off its bond purchases. This makes the task of normalizing interest rates tricky for the Fed. Bernanke and the rest of the Open Market Committee have to consider the problems of a bubble in the stock markets, avoiding a destabilizing selloff in markets because of strong signals of normalization of rates, and changes in economic conditions in the U.S. and to some exent globally. Similiar reassuring statements were made by the head of the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the ECB.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Labor Department reported a gain of 236,000 jobs in February 2013. The job gains were broad based, an encouraging sign, with gains of 48,000 in construction, 32,000 in health care, 24,000 in retail. Government jobs declined by 10,000. The unemployment rate declined from 7.9% in Jan 2013 to 7.7% in Feb 2013. Part of the reason for the decline in the unemployment rate was 130,000 people leaving the labor force. Of this some were retiring or returned to school. About 80,000 were "discouraged workers" adding to the continued problem of a declining labor force participation rate, a serious concern for the U.S. Federal Reserve and Fed chairman Bernanke.

LyrArc Article Gist
The new Jinping-Keqiang administration is making the initial changes in China by restructuring cabinet ministries. The Railways Ministry is being merged with the Transportation Ministry, separating the operation of the rail system from its regulation. The National Population and Family Planning Commission is being merged with the Health Ministry, in a gradual phase-out of the one-child policy after considering the demographic changes underway in China. The State Administration of Food and Drug is being given new powers to fight contamination of food and drugs. The two agencies that manage the media, the General Administration of Press and Publication and the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television are to be merged. The National Energy Administration is to be reorganized to change the way the energy industry regulation takes place. The ministries fall under China's cabinet, the State Council. Mai Kai, secretary general of the State Council, said the ministries remain overly focussed on micro issues. The changes are based on a look at overall development in China and correcting some of the glaring shortcomings in pollution, managing of the rail system, changing demographics, contamination of food and drugs, and other issues that affect the Chinese people in the new industrial and urbanized society....

LyrArc Article Gist
In a complete reversal of the situation in 2012 when Spain's and Italy's bond yields reached about 8%, Spain's 10 year government bond yields declined to 2.579% on June 8, 2014, according to Tradeweb. The ECB's efforts to fight deflation by injecting money into the financial system in 2014, and investor search for higher yields, is driving up the price of Spain's bonds and reducing yields below that of U.S. Treasurys for the first time. The period it took for this to happen- just 2 years!

LyrArc Article Gist
MaC Group, a risk advisor to Spanish banks, says Spanish banks hold about 30 billion pounds of distressed real estate and unsellable land. Prices are down 28% from the peak in 2007, according to a report by the IESE Business School, and are expected to fall a further 15-20 percent in the next 2-3 years by some experts. Much of the bank owned land is far from city centers and there is no demand for this. One Madrid based consultant R.R. de Acuna Asociados, says 43% of bank owned land is poorly located and there may be no demand for unfinished residential units for decades. The new government of Mariano Rajoy plans to take action to cleanup the banking system. Louis de Guindos, director of PricewaterhouseCoopers and IE Business School Center of Finance is expected to become the new finance minister. Guindos says strict rules need to be implemented, with some banks able to handle this and others that won't. MaC Group's Cantos, a managing partner, says the gap is huge between prices offered by banks and what investors will pay- as much as 70%. Prime assets can be sold for 30% discount but the land, residential and commercial real estate will require discounts of 70%. Banks have made provisions for losses of 30%, and are now facing the prospect of another 40% in losses. As a result many of the medium and small sized banks which operate only inside Spain may have to be shut down or consolidated by the government of Mariano Rajoy. Only the larger banks like Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao, La Caxia, and Bankia are likely to surivive....

LyrArc Article Gist
The appointments to key economic positions in the Jinping-Keqiang administration in 2013 reflect continuity and importance given to experience. Zhou Xiaochuan continues as head of the central bank PBOC, to keep an experienced person in the the event of a financial crisis. Lou Jiwei, chairman of the sovereign wealth fund, is now the new finance minister. Xu Shaoshi, minister of land and resources, is the new head of the National Development and Reform Commission, the economic planning agency. Xiao Gang, chairman of the Bank of China, one of four state owned banks, will be the new head of the securities regulator, China Securities Regulatory Commission. Zhang Gaoli, a member of the Political Standing Committee of the Communist party, and Wang Yang, party chief of southern Guangdong province, also join the economic team. Li Keqiang, the new prime minister emphasized the agenda for the next decade telling a press conference: "Talking the talk is not as good as walking the walk. We need to pursue market oriented reforms." This means giving the private sector and consumers a signficant role in the Chinese economy....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Republican House Health Care pLan in 2017 relies on tax credits of between $2000 and $4000 based on age. Under the Affordable Health Care Act the elderly poor in high cost insurance areas received additional help. These people would lose over $2000 per person and may forgo full coverage or coverage entirely under the Republican House Health Care Plan. A report by Standard & Poor's estimates about 2 to 4 million people who are in 50's and 60's not yet qualifying for Medicare might lose their coverage they now have under ACA. The Republican plan also gives incentives through tax credits higher for older people, $4000 for a 60 year ol and $2000 for a 25 year old. Under the ACA the insurers are not allowed to charge more than three times what is charged for younger people, under the Republican plan this goes up to five times. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Martin Feldstein points out why the recent agreement for a "fiscal compact" is no more than an empty statement about fixing the eurozone's finances. In this respect it is no different than the Stability and Growth Pact it replaces, with serious weaknesses. Feldstein cites the weaknesses in the language of the agreement. Each eurozone country is required to limit its"cyclically adjusted" budget deficit to 0.5% of GDP and bring its debt down to 60% of GDP. Compliance will be performed by the European Court of Justice and fines imposed. In practice the questions loom large- for a country like Spain with a 23% unemployment rate, isn't all of the 6% budget deficit cyclical? Again the agreement says deficits are calculated "net of one-off and temporary measures." Under this provision a lot of the stimulus programs would be considered in the category of "one-off." Other language lets eurozone countries frame budgets based on "exceptional circumstances" and "periods of severe economic downturn." Italy has declining economic growth, does it make sense to have a large budget surplus in that situation to lower debt to GDP, and how does that goal relate to "exceptional circumstances."...

LyrArc Article Gist
Indonesian president Joko Widodo announces that he has won re-election with an estimated 54% of the vote. Voter turnout estimated at 80% was high. A massive logistical exercize for a country which stretches as long as the United States across thousands of islands in the Indian Ocean, with 193 million people eligible to vote. There are 800,000 polling stations and 17 million people taking part in setting up polling booths and other services. The opening of a new subway in Jakarta, and the infrastructure projects including roads and rapid transit, airports, that Indonesia is building under Widodo helped him win public support. Under Widodo Indonesia has advanced democratic processes and improving lives with public services. 

LyrArc Article Gist
ECB president Draghi tells the European parliament on Jan. 16, 2012: "I cannot underline these points enough. Only a well-coordinated, coherent and properly timed strategy will yield the desired results." He made his comments as head of the European Systemic Board, which oversees systemic risks to the banking system in Europe. Speaking after a series of downgrades by S&P, Draghi said there should be "much less mechanical reliance" on ratings agencies. On Greece's debt burden and servicing costs he pointed out that the evaluation of Greek debt made in October 2011 "needs to be clarified whether its realistic," given the deteriorating economic situation in Greece. On Greece's talks with bondholder Draghi wants to see new servicing of debt conditions make it possible for Greece to bring down its current debt level of 190% of GDP to 120% by 2020.

LyrArc Article Gist
The IMF report on Italy in July 2012 says Italy faces another year of recession. Debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to reach 126% in 2013. One bright spot is that Italy is expected to post a primary surplus by 2013- that is government revenues will cover promised services, excluding interest payments on oustanding bonds of $2 trillion. Because of the recession small shocks could change the outlook says the IMF, and it emphasized the importance of the changes being made to the labor market and for improving competitiveness. These changes need to be implemented early because of elections expected in spring 2013. A key concern is borrowing rates which are near 7% for Italy and Spain. The European Stability Mechanism, the rescue fund, was authorized to make purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds in the June 2012 summit. The ESM becomes operational in the summer of 2012, after the German Constitutional Court makes its ruling about it being legal and after ratification by national governments....