LyrArc Article Gist
With 3.7 million workers in the informal economy Italy is one of the worst hit European countries. Italy's south, including Naples and its capital Campania is one of the hardest hit. Italy's lockdown ended May 18, with some restrictions. Affected worst are small business owners such as shopkeepers, restaurant owners and market vendors, also hit are workers employed in tourism and entertainment. The Italian government has made a 600 euro emergency payment to self employed or part time workers, and 12 million workers have applied so far for these payments, about half of the workforce. A new payment by the government will cover workers in the informal economy with a55 million euro additional aid package by the government of prime minister Conte. Italy's economy will decline by 9.5% in 2020, exceeded in Europe only by Greece. The country is seeing a further erosion of the lower middle class after the difficult period following both the financial crisis of 2008, the eurozone crisis, austerity cuts which hurt people across southern European countries, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Italy. It is also true that Italians came together during this difficult period in a way not seen since World War II and prime minister Conte provided much needed leadership for Italy, with growing confidence in his leadership. This provides a new sense of hope that Italy can come to grips with many problems it has faced in the last 2 decades, similar to that in other parts of Europe where investment in  infrastructure and manufacturing has fallen behind. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Erlanger and Smale of the NYT describe the reaction in Europe, from Chatham House in London, Bruegel think tank in Brussels, and the German Council of Foreign Relations in Berlin, to the election results in the first round in France. There is a sense of relief that the poll results held and that Macron is the front runner, yet a sense that the issues of social justice, taking account of the marginalized need to be addressed. The parliamentary elections in June, soon after the second round of voting, are also seen as a factor as governing without the support of the legislature would mean very little gets done. For the first time the main parties are not being represented in the presidential office, with a fractured Socialist party and the Republican Party candidate not in the second round.  The Dutch elections, followed by the French and German elections could push back the populism in a negative direction of withdrawing from the global community and openness in the economy.  The economic reform message of  Macron resonates in Germany, as France suffers from high unemployment and needs to build a stronger economy. A stronger French economy is the sure way to bring French people together after the divisions of the current election.       ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Jeremy Hunt, head of the Health Select Committee and Health Secretary 2012-2018, says Britain needs to take up mass contact tracing as its next national mission. Britain he says has passed 20,000 tests a day for coronavirus. America has passed 150,000 tests a day. Both more than South Korea. What is missing when compared to South Korea and Taiwan is mass contact tracing.  The app TraceTogether is not enough, as it was used by only 20% of Singapore's population. Only South Korea and Taiwan are able to open up the economy, have workplaces and life function close to normal through extensive testing and mass contact tracing, with feet on the ground. This is the only path that has worked with South Korea successfully out of the lockdown. This means "feet on the street." Making these calls requires skills, getting information, getting cooperation, offering guidance, and ensuring people isolate themselves after contact with an infected person. Sometimes it is by phone and sometimes in person wearing full PPE. They need to be sensitive enough in talking to someone feeling ill and to see how home isolation can be achieved, who else the coronavirus infected person or someone in the chain of contacts has been in contact with. Mr. Hunt says no effort should be spared in doing this as the millions of jobs in Britain, of people without work, the economy, and the need for light at the end of the tunnel of lockdowns, requires a way out. A huge task but a lot of impossible tasks are being tackled in the health services. The resources of Britain, every spare civil servant, every administrator not working, every one who can do this, needs to be enlisted to do this. The same task needs to be tackled in America, and in other countries as a national mission. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Ford Motor Company's effort to get president Trump to work on a compromise with California on fuel economy standards has failed. Leaving the industry split with Ford on one side and GM, Toyota on the other siding with president Trump on lower fuel economy standards than set by California and lower than the standards set by Mr. Obama. When Ford made a deal with California it got an antitrust inquiry, and led to the Trump administration speeding up its effort to strip California of its authority to set its own fuel economy standards. This WSJ report says the legal fight between Mr. Trump and California is likely to be long and drawn out with Ford and the auto companies caught in the middle. It also shows how the disagreement with the Trump White House can lead to unforeseen consequences and more uncertainty. Ford had originally expected that a deal with California which relaxed standards set by Mr. Obama but not similar to Mr. Trump's would show California would compromise. This is not how it has worked out. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The last days of the pro-Russian Donetsk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine, as Ukrainian government forces under the government of prime minister Poroshenko defeat separatists by July 2014. Russia decides not to intervene further. Opinion polls show a majority of Ukrainians in Donetsk do not favor separatism, and opposition is based on alienation from the poor quality of governance in Kiev. With the Poroshenko government committed to respecting the rights of Russian speaking Ukrainians, Tymoshenko soundly defeated in elections, and Russia's economy at risk in the adverse impact on foreign investor sentiment, Russia's sees little to be gained from supporting the separatists.

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany and the European Union are improving their defenses as the conflict drags on. The US position DJT has articulated is to bring an end to the war to end the daily loss of lives on both sides. Looking back was it worth loss of hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides and the damage to the economy, to housing from bombing, and the millions of refugees many older people, just for the Association Agreement with the European Union in 2013-2014. This has been completely mismanaged by all sides, the EU officials responsible, the governments in Europe including Russia and Germany, and Ukraine's political parties and their appeal to the people, and by the administration of Obama in the US. DJT and administration officials have long made it clear that they don't want this war, the war in Ukraine. A conflict that has been going on in some form or other between parts of Ukraine in the west and Russian influenced regions in the east as governments changed before and after protests in Kviv in 2013 over an agreement on association with the European Union long before the current war; some favorable to Putin and some not like the current government. So it is surprising that Medvedev would make remarks about DJT and the US to draw a confrontation between the two powers US and Russia in this way in X, remarks DJT calls "inflammatory."  Especially when the US is trying its best to negotiate and end to the war by pressuring both sides. It's defending of Ukraine only to stop the missile attacks on it's cities to give peaceful resolution a chance, not to aggravate the conflict.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Egyptian president Morsi appoints a new defense minister and two leading generals are asked to retire and continue as advisers. Because Gen. Tantawi was 76, and the new defense minister who comes from the military body the SCAF is 58, it appears to observers that this is a shift to a new generation within the military. In the background is the situation in Syria with the Assad military regime at risk of falling in a civil war, and the focus of Sunni nations in the Middle East and the U.S. on Iran, which could have led to a U.S. effort led by Secretary of State Panetta during his recent visit to mediate between the different factions for a rapprochement. The rapprochement would benefit the retired generals and the military to continue operating businesses that constitute about 25% of the economy, a younger generation in the military better able to adapt to the changes in the Middle East to assume control under civilian leadership, for the Muslim Brotherhood and other political parties the reversing of military decrees subverting the election results, and for the U.S., Sunni nations in the Middle East and European allies better able to focus on the situation with Iran. For all side a win-win negotiation through efforts by Leon Panetta....

LyrArc Article Gist
The UK Office for National Statistics shows Britain's GDP declined by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2011, compared to the prior quarter. The figures showed a drop in business investment. Polls by ComRes, show 51% of people in Britain see the government austerity cuts as having an adverse effect on the economy, with cuts being larger and coming too quickly.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, reduces the capital reserve requirement ratio for the largest banks by 1% to 18.5%, on April 19, 2015. This move is expected to free up $200 billion for new lending by banks. China's securities regulator also acted to curb margin financing, the using of borrowed money to invest in the stock market which faces bubble conditions. China's economy is reported to be slowing making it uncertain whether the 7% annual growth target can be met.

LyrArc Article Gist
Leonhardt points out in the NYT that Hillary Clinton actually won in the popular vote by a substantial margin, by more than 2 million votes and more than 1.5 percentage points. He says that Democrats need to pay more attention to the working class in midwestern states- the job losses, crumbling infrastructure, and the plight of communities such as Detroit, Michigan which suffered through the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM, and again with the foreclosure crisis, the financial crisis of the City of Detroit. With a similar situation in the neighboring states of Wisconsin and Ohio, in places like Toledo and other parts of communities facing industrial decline. While the Silicon Valley centred region powered the economy in California, and the financial industry and real estate powered New York, older midwestern communities never really recovered from a long decline stretching over 2 decades. The result was the loss of faith in Democrats among union workers and young people, leading to the loss of Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan. For most of its history the Democratic Party was based on its union and working class base including a large number of white voters. Only under Obama because of his unique candidacy was the coalition so dependent on the minorities vote. Before minorities were part of the Democratic coalition, but not in the way under the Obama candidacy. A return to its historic and normal base among whites in unions and working class communities, liberals, minorities, is a way to go back to the historic and natural base of Democratic support. In a sense dependence on tech communities for election funding and the tech booms, globalization, may have distorted Democrats sense of their historic role as champions of the working class and middle class communities throughout the country. There is now an opportunity to restore this lost mission of protecting the interests of the middle and working class who have seen huge drop in net worth as reported by Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve at the Inequality Conference on October 17, 2014-"62 million households with a net worth of $11,000 for the year 2013." Poorly covered in the media and not made the utmost priority by Democrats (or Republicans). In the words of Janet Yellen, this was in the past several decades "the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality since the Great Depression." She added the shocking words "by some estimates, income and wealth inequality near their highest levels in the past hundred years, and probably much higher than much of American history before then." Even discussion in the media goes back to the Obama coalition and treats it as a way forward for Democrats, when history shows it was different and the situation described by Yellen calls for a serious response. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Condoleeza Rice, former U.S. Secretary of State, who insisted on meeting opposition leaders in Cairo during the Mubarak regime (in Condoleeza Rice, Washington Post, 2/16/2010, The Future of a Democratic Egypt), reflects on the situation after parliamentary and presidential elections in Russia in March 2012. She says that the growing middle class in Russia seeks respect and participation in how Russia is to be governed. She thinks Russia's dependence on oil and commodities for revenues fosters a climate of corruption and it should move faster in the direction of diversifying its economy. Russian entry in the World Trade Organization, fostering a climate for Russian engineers and scientists to work inside Russia and start new companies, and building U.S. and European business and private ties with Russia's public and private sectors, should be promoted to help the Russian economy diversify. Resetting Russian relations or depending on the U.S. government to come up with solutions appears to be the wrong answer, Rice points out, because resetting is still based on internal politics in Russia. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
UK's GDP falls by 0.1% in October over prior month. UK economy faces headwinds. It could take several months to overcome the effects of asharp increase in employment taxes in the UK Budget. COvid 19, Brexit, and 6 premiers in 9 years, uncertainty affecting business investment decisions, is affecting the British economy.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lyrarc.com's Movement for Global Literacy and its knowledge site open to all has major relevance for today. That 30% of Americans read zero books is a clear warning sign for Democracy in the idea of "We the People," and the Economy benefitting all, in the US. The use of libraries follows political, income and demographic patterns is shown in a You Gov poll research. There is a gap of 10% between the 30% library use at incomes over $100,000 vs 20% at incomes below $50,000. The gap widens with political inclination to 13% when party preference is considered with 30% Democratic and 17% Republican- not a good state of affairs for the Nation.  In general the top 50% of the population gets to libraries split evenly between frequent and less frequent users. The bottom 50% with rarely using or no use at all. This is the crux of the problem- literacy of all kinds should correlate with the use of libraries and books and digital use.  Digital use happens with iPads and laptops searching Wikipedia and knowledge sites such as Lyrarc.com outside of libraries, and this is part of the picture. What library use gives is not a full picture yet one with these wide variations an indication of how the political life of the Nation should be turned in constructive ways for broad based participation in a knowledge society. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Of the 45 million US student loan borrowers in 2025- only 11 million are on time with payments. The rest seeing sharp credit score declines that limit their access to home loans, other credit, or increase the costs of access to credit. This limits access to housing, and other needs for this group, it also affects demand in the economy. A recent WSJ report showed Moody Analytics research that 80% of US consumer spending is now done by 20% of the top income earners in the US. Decline in demand from this group will affect the economic growth in the US and how well the stock markets do. This will affect the job growth in the economy month to month.  This means with inaction from the DJT administration and the SCOTUS lack of comprehension of the economic aspects of this issue in ruling out action taken by the Biden administration- that this failure to take action on relief poses added risks to the US economy in 2025. It also means uneven and unbalanced growth where some groups upper income are favored by the virtue of the way the economy operates leaving many young people out of the benefits of growth. This adds to the general feeling of frustration and discontent after the pandemic and after cost of living surges in 2022-2024. It also means university education is no longer affordable or accessible to young people. Other issues play into this such as the surging cost of university education and action needs to be taken to bring this into line with earlier post 1945 patterns where university education was affordable and taken up. The increase in apprenticeship programs is a good thing, yet the gradual turning away of young men from college education is a serious danger to the cultural literacy in the US in 2020-2030. Leaving aside Ivy leagues making state college and universities affordable is one of the big problems needing to be solved as a priority in the US.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The dangers to China's economy and banking system from the large number of bad loans at the local level. Difficulties of absorbing bad loan losses by the central government as new loan losses are piled on top of previous loan losses from earlier efforts to tide over bad loans. Considering all nonperforming loans that may end up as sovereign debt China's national debt is upwards of 80% of GDP, say Walter and Howie. The lack of any serious change in policies, inability to control lending for state enterprises and local governments, the tax on savings with low interest rates which keeps down domestic consumption, and the absence of a serious discussion on these issues leaves China exposed to higher systemic risk from excessive financial leverage.

LyrArc Article Gist
Prof. Sonalde Desai questions the lack of fresh thinking on addressing inequalities in India by sticking to reservations policy initiated in 1950 before modernization of the economy. In today's economy education is a critical component for upward mobility and the ability to read at higher level is critical. In India the forward castes do better in class 1 reading for 8-11 year olds with about 70% passing, for scheduled castes this drops to below 50%. Prof. Desai argues that addressing problems at the elementary school level is needed to create a level field for opportunities throughout society.

LyrArc Article Gist
Map showing most deprived neighborhoods bordering least deprived neighborhoods in the UK in 2025.  In 2019 there were 65 such neighborhoods with posh-poor side by side, in 2025 this has jumped to 119 such neighborhoods. Shown on this map are the familiar areas around New Castle on Tyne and Leeds/ Nottingham in the North and in the Midlands. With fewer such neighborhoods in the south near London. Years of austerity policies of the Cameron/Osborne conservatives and Conservative administrations since have led to a growing divide in the UK. This is also more reason for the Labour Party to get its work together to take strong action similar to the socialist party in Denmark to cut illegal migrants, so that it can focus its efforts to deliver and build a better stronger economy for all people in Britain

LyrArc Article Gist
George Osborne, Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, says he supports giving regulators powers to take action to split banks that do not ring fence their risky operations and separate deposit taking from risk taking activities. He says this as parliament considers legislation on banking regulation after the LIBOR investigations and problems in British banking following the 2008 financial crisis. Osborne said: "Irresponsible behavior was rewarded, failure was bailed out, and the innocent- people who have nothing to do whatsoever with the banks- suffered." Referring to the larger role of the financial industry in the British economy, Osborne stated: "Our country has paid a higher price than any other major economy for what went so badly wrong in our banking system." This comes as Britain feels the impact of a decline in growth in 2013.

LyrArc Article Gist
Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, a University of Chicago trained economist, is replaced by planning minister Nelson Barbosa, as the new Finance Minister of Brazil. President Rousseff faces criticism as Brazil's economy contracts and ordinary Brazilians feel the effects of fiscal austerity policies pursued under Levy. Former president Lula da Silva was critical of Levy's policies.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Economist's view is that trade and currency tensions are too high to result in an accord along the lines of the 1985 Plaza Accord. There may be a general underestimation of how strongly the American public feels about trade and jobs issues, and the currency issues that are intertwined with trade issues. This includes the Economist. See the 2010 survey of American public opinion (Murray, Belkin, WSJ, Oct 2, 2010, Americans Sour on Trade), which shows that better educated and higher income professionals are also shifting to firm opinions on trade that impacts jobs in the U.S. Also see Roubini's recent analysis (interview with Peter Stein, WSJ, 10/2/2010, Yen Revaluation for China's Own Sake), on why it is imperative in China's own interest to move forward with a currency revaluation. Economist Robert Gordon of Northwestern University (Peter Coy, Business Week, 9/30/2010, Why One Economist Predicts Slow US Economic Growth), recently pointed out that his models show a significant slowing down of the U.S. economy over the next two decades, the slowest growth since the Presidency of George Washington. This means growth slowing down to 1.5% in the period 2007-2027, from 1.93% in the prior three decades, which he says leaves less money for everything from tackling carbon emissions to infrastructure needs. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany's $ 3 billion aid to Ukraine can only go through if it is clear where the money comes from. Scholz and Habeck oppose taking it from pensions, local government spending, or needed transportaton infrastructure spending. Greens see this kind of funding with cuts from domestic needs as a cop out. Scholz opposes cuts in pensions. CDU suggests cuts in unemployment benefits. Scholz opposes this. Germany as a debt clause in its Constitution put in by former CDU chancellor Merkel. It doesn't make sense now with the needs in infrastructure and the extra revenue that could be generated in the economy from an expanding economy that has rebuilt and updated its infrastructure. Yet it is still in place and leaves Germany less able to cope with demands for security, defense, and for infrastructure, modernizing its economy. By contrast the US under Biden and Trump is committed to domestic spending on infrastructure and modernization, leading to faster economic growth than in the European Union in 2025-26. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US Supreme Court Justices fail to grasp the importance of education and education affordability in the rise of America as an industrialized nation in the last 150 years- from a largely agricultural rural country to an advanced industrial economy. Comments by Supreme Court Justices show this clearly. Justice Roberts compares a college education to starting a lawn business, failing to grasp the importance of education and it being affordable for all when he asked yesterday whether it made sense to forgive loans made out by students and not say ones made out to someone starting a lawn care business.  Astonishingly the same lack of awareness prevails among Justices appointed by Democrats. Justice Kagan said- "Congress passed a law that dealt with loan repayment for colleges, and they did not pass a law for loan repayment for lawn businesses. And so Congress made a choice, and it may have been the right choice or the wrong choice, but that's Congress's choice." Kagan shows a lack of conviction about the value of education for the US economy, and the serious crisis with the lack of affordability of education in America in America's ability to compete with China and the European Union, through her words. Reporting in the WSJ has shown in the past year- the lack of college enrollment for young men graduating from high school where lack of affordability makes a college education out of reach, and young men falling behind young women. This is a serious problem that America has not seen in its rise as an industrialized advanced nation. The pandemic has worsened this problem. Reporting also shows federal funding of education remains underutilized today because it is seen as burdening with debt. President Biden seeks to change this perception of education that is deindustrializing America and failing the country in its efforts to compete in the world. Justice Roberts and Justice Kagan have both failed the country.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Nobel laureate Michael Spence says the structural problems in the U.S. economy will require structural solutions where government, business and labor come up with collective efforts to restore economic growth. This might take some time says Spence. Short term fiscal spending alone is not the answer for jobs growth. And it will take a joint concerted effort of government, business and labor. Part of the effort might include a period in which there is lower income growth to regain competitiveness. This would be similiar to what Germany accomplished in the last decade in which it faced high unemployment. The German government, labor unions and business forged a consensus which included wage restraint, changes in the labor market. This would have to be combined with government-business partnership to make investments in advanced manufacturing technology and other innovations to improve competitive position. Educational standards and productive skill development issues would have to be addressed to create new advantage for the U.S., just as emerging market economies are making new strides of their own....

LyrArc Article Gist
Everything is moving in the wrong direction in terms of sustaining growth according to Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute of International Economics. China's exports dependent economy will see a serious downturn as export markets in the USA and Europe dry up in 2009 as the deep recession takes shape. This could lead to growth rates going down to 6-7%.Other areas that propelled Chinese growth areinfrastructure investment and housing construction. Worried about rising housing prices the government last year out in place measures to dampen housing purchases, with tighter restrictions on second mortgages by banks and tighter lending for first mortgages. With house prices flat or falling now in Chinese cities many buyers are holding off for a better price in the future. Slower growth in housing will mean less demand for migrant labor and less demand for imports of cement and steel from other countries. China's lower imports of machinery, machine tools and heavy equipment for industry and infrastructure building will affect especially the German and Japanese economies. Germany has become the world's largest exporting nation in part by selling industrial equipment to China, its second most important market for machinery. In the first 7 months of 2008 these exports were still expanding at 20%. But these exports are likley now expanding at a rate of 10% and may slip to single digit growth in 2009, according to Olaf Wortmann, an economist with the VDMA engineering association. A good example of what is happening is the German manufacturers of textile machinery which derive 95% of their sales from overseas and mostly from China. These orders were down 42% in the first 7 months of 2008. With declining consumer demand in the US demand from China's exporting factories is declining. These figures and the accelerating slowdown in the US consumer markets suggest there will be a serious downturn in Chinese exports of textiles and other goods. The impact on German growth rates which are going below 2% in 2008 is to lead to 0% or declining growth in 2009. A similiar situation is ocurring for imports of heavy equipment from Japan. Orders of Japanese machine tools by China declined by 25% in September according to the Japan Machine Tool Builder's Association and Komatsu's shares have declined by 70% since their June peak. Part of the Chinese impact on global growth is mitigated by the fact that at market exchange rates China's economy is still only 6% of the world economy at market exchange rates and 10% at purchasing power parity. Chinese domestic consumer demand is $1.2 trillion for 2007 compared to the USA's $9.7 trillion, which also suggests how heavily China was dependent on the American consumer and how the missing American consumer will be hard to replace and the growth rates of 10-12% may be a thing of the past, with 6-7% being more realistic. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Le Monde publishes the speech JD Vance gave at the Munich Security Conference with it says added context and explanation. It is useful because it is easy to make hasty judgements in one direction or another. The focus here is on immigration to EU and to the US, a sore point. Vance does not mention a bigger sore point - the lack of recognition worldwide to the 490,000 American lives lost in the illegal flow of fentanyl into the US without needed action from CMC Canada, Mexico and China. And business as usual carried on by these countries and the European Union, and a failure to act by the US.  JD Vance said- "And of all the pressings—challenges that the nations represented here face, I believe there is nothing more urgent than mass migration. Today, almost one in five people living in this country moved here from abroad. That is, of course, an all-time high. It’s a similar number, by the way, in the United States—also an all-time high. The number of immigrants who entered the EU from non-EU countries doubled between 2021 and 2022 alone. And, of course, it’s gotten much higher since.And we know the situation, it didn’t materialize in a vacuum. It’s the result of a series of conscious decisions made by politicians all over the continent, and others across the world, over the span of a decade." Fact Check- About 14 million of Germany's 84.5 million people are foreign nationals according to Destatis. This is 16.6% of Germany's population. Vance rounds it off to 20% not 17%. In the US there are 47.8 million people who are foreign born or 14.3% of the population in 2023. It increased by 1.6 million from 2022 to 2023, much of it coming from Venezuela and Central American failed states from left parties mismanaging the economy for hyperinflation and from gang violence. In 2022 EU member states welcomed 1.8 million Ukrainian nationals that was only 100,000 in 2021, which is two thirds of the increase. The reason for Vance's doubling. A similar situation happened in the US with Venezuela as a failed state with hyper inflation into 1000 percent inflation leading to migration to other Latin American countries and into the US during the Biden administration. Some of this happened because sanctions made things worse, mismanagement of the economy. A similar migration happened from Syria into the EU member states as a result of the civil war.     ...