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Production cuts of 9.7 million barrels a day of oil are negotiated by president Trump to save the global oil industry. Yet demand has dropped by 30 million barrels a day by April 12, 2020 from the pandemic.

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The Iran Saudi talks had already taken place and there was a sense of fatigue on both sides after the prolonged war in Yemen. The Chinese mediation was able to build on this to get the two sides to discuss their differences and come to an agreement. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is very different. China's interest in ending the war in Ukraine comes from its need to not let relations with the European Union deteriorate any further, as this will affect China's economic growth. The pandemic and supply chain shift to home country manufacturing is not likely to change even if China finds a way to keep its relations with the European Union from deteriorating further, as this shift is seen by the US and the European Union as part of the new way of meeting their own strategic interests in the new world following the pandemic.

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The Chinese government raised the retail price of diesel by 18% to the equivalent of $3.58 a gallon, and the price of gasoline by 16% to $3.83 a gallon. Electricity prices and the price of jet fuel were also increased. The Chinese government decided that it could not provide subsidies for the rising prices of oil indefinitely even if the price increases mean higher inflation. Inflation was 7.7% in May 2008, and 8% in February, March and April. Prices for gasoline and diesel have been fixed in China since Nov 1, 2007, even though world oil prices have risen 45% in this period. Farmers were exempted from the price increase and tractors and farm equipment get priority allocation of fuel, three quake hit provinces of Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu are also exempt.

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Chancellor Merz says after the signing of the UK- Germany Friendship Treaty on July 16, 2025 at the Victoria and Albert Museum in London-

"This is a historic day for German-British relations. . . We want to work more closely — especially after the UK's departure from the European Union."  

UK and Germany will work closely in all areas and increase education exchanges, setup a direct rail link for close cooperation after Brexit. French president Macron visited London the week earlier and DJT is expected to visit King Charles soon.  The E3 countries UK, France and Germany are working closely in 2025.

Compare this with the Merkel period and one can see a significant improvement in Europe, a more dynamic forward looking Europe replaces the idea that only the European Union arrangement speaks for Europe. 

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The Russian economy had GDP decline of 2% and was relatively not affected by the shutoff of imports of oil and gas from Europe in 2022. Gas exports to Europe began declining in the summer. The EU ban on seaborne oil from Russia and price cap went into effect in December 2022. Russia made a huge stimulus of 4% of GDP in 2022. The result is that only now in 2023 is the full impact being felt on the Russian economy.  WSJ reports that in January and February Russian exports of oil and gas revenue which makeup half of the budget fell by 46% year over year, while state spending jumped 50%. Analysts estimate that it would take a price of $100 for Russia to balance its books. Yet the Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil has brought it down to $50- the price the Ministry of Finance says Urals crude sold in February. This is a deep discount to the $80 price of Brent Crude, the US benchmark.  A bigger problem is the downward trajectory the Russian economy faces in future years. Worker shortages are severe for industry and a shift to wartime production does not add to productivity or productive capacity. The cut off from access to western technology and western financial markets will have a severe impact in the productive capacity for the economy, for oil and industrial production in the years to 2030. Russia needed to protect against the gradual shift away from fossil fuels to fight climate change by shifting the economy in a new direction using its access to western technologies not just China's technologies. Instead it now finds itself in a period of 1 year in 2022 when oil revenues surged with prices jumping from the war, and then a steady slump in all the inputs of development- supply of labor, capital and technology declining rapidly after 2023 as the costs of the Ukraine invasion are absorbed into the economy. As this report points out it is the social contract that similar to China's social contract of growth and improvement in standards of living that led to people having a large measure of confidence in the government. It was not fully grasped but it was the access to American and European Union plus Japanese technology, manufacturing, capital and markets that made this possible. With this absent the situation changes to put Russia, and China to a lesser extent as long as it trades with the west, on a different trajectory.  ...

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Israeli rescue mission for 4 hostages in Nuseerat part of Gaza June 10, 2024. 

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How China is struggling with high oil prices, the situation of Sinopec which buys most of its oil and sells gasoline at government mandated prices. This follows a 10% increase in gasoline prices and hopes of easing shortages.

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How will the rise of renewables solar, wind and hydropower, nuclear change the demand and supply of oil and gas by 2030? How will this affect producers such as Russia, Saudis/UAE, and the US? And how will it affect China and India and the US? This question is answered by the new IEA forecast model that shows the demand at 105 million barrels a day in 2030, and supply at 113 million barrels a day, showing that renewable will have increased by 2030 to produce an oversupply of oil and gas. After 2031 this gap will widen and grow so that oil and gas prices will drop. This will accelerate the growth of India and China. Indian prime minister Modi tells people in towns across the country that the government will help people to put solar panels on homes so that instead of paying an oil and gas bill the energy generated from solar and added to the grid will give them a check every month to add to income.

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A red wave fails to appear, says this report in The Guardian of the US 2022 midterm elections for the US Congress. A key Senate seat in Pennsylvania goes to Democrat Fetterman. Other races are tight and the final results will take time. Ron De Santis wins Florida as a Republican with a wide margin and is seen as looking for the Republican nomination for president in 2024. The Georgia Senate seat looks to be headed for a runoff.

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Added sugar is the big culprit in the way we age, and in our general health, the diseases we get. This is not just about obesity, its about metabolic health- getting only the amount of sugar that is good for us. Unknowingly if we are not careful, not checking labels and without any advantage we end up taking added sugar when we eat packaged foods. About 70% of packaged foods contain this added sugar. Most adults in the U.S. and other countries get 17 teaspoons of added sugar a day or twice the 9 teaspoons that is recommended for men and three times the 6 teaspoons a day recommended for women. For children the recommended limit is 3 teaspoons. Just by being a bit careful and removing this added sugar from our diet we can enjoy much better health. It is not giving us much because we can still have some sugar in healthy natural foods, in fruits and vegetables, and a smaller amount of plain sugar. After the first couple of days of a change one may not even notice this. By so much has our sugar intake grown particularly with packaged foods, that a small change can bring big results in health and healthy living style. ...

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Many of the problems in Minnesota came from the tactics employed by a Border patrol agent Bovino who took over Minnesota immigration enforcement in the state. He was removed by the Border head Tom Homan who said some of the tactics used were not what ICE normally has used in the past. Homan has taken over complete control of the operations for immigration enforcement in Minnesota. Todd Lyons (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) RodneyScott (Border Patrol CBP) Joe Edlow Citizenship and Immigration Services made an appearance in US House of Representatives hearings held by the Homeland Security Committee. The immigration enforcement in California, and other states, and law enforcement in Washington DC and Nashville did not meet any of the confrontations that happened in Minnesota. Democrats and Republicans are negotiating ways to come up with law enforcement that does not disturb entire neighborhoods and can be conducted peacefully.

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Russia is very close to the US in Alaska which was given to the US in 1867 for $7.2 million by Russia. Diomede islands 2 miles apart separate US and Russia, Bering Strait 57 miles apart separate US and Russia. The first time a Russian president set foot in Alaska is 2025 with president Putin landing there to meet the US president on August 14, 2025. Putin says he is landing there to meet DJT for talks with mutual respect.

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Pakistan faces soaring food prices with the severe monsoon floods damaging crops and hurting the agricultural sector. Onions are up five times in price. About 80% of the tomato crop is damaged. Imports from India could ease the situation. Under normal trade for neighboring countries India Pakistan trade would be $50 billion in 2012, according to Mr. Boskin, who helped setup the NAFTA trade agreement. Instead it was $2.7 billion in 2012 and it was about $300 million in 2020, in OEC data.  Finance Minister Ismail talked about importing tomatoes and onions and other products from India during the floods with one third of Pakistan under water and half a million homeless.

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Kevin Maurer looks back at 15 years of covering Afghanistan since 2004, and asks was it worth it.  The conflict has cost 145,000 lives for the U.S. period of the war alone. Not counting the war in which the Russians were involved in the decade before the U.S. involvement. In fact the Russian involvement in Afghanistan was costly enough to hasten the collapse of the Soviet Union and bring Gorbachev to power to unwind the war and make the changes that led to the collapse of the Berlin Wall.  2400 U.S. servicemen dead and 20,000 Americans wounded. The cost to the U.S. is $737 billion for this war, according to a report in 2018 from Brown University's Costs of War Project. Just as the Soviet Union showed the damage from this war the U.S. has seen the cost of this war and foreign entanglement in another war that started accidentally with international interventions in the Iran-Iraq region as a cost that was borne with consequences. This includes the neglect of infrastructure and the damage to the middle class prosperity built up in the 1950's and 1960's after the Second World War. The U.S. got into this war with 9/11 attacks on New York City. By 2010 what began as a war fought by a few Special Operations teams turned into a war with troop levels reaching 100,000. Presidents Bush and Obama both failed to end the war by winning it. In 2014 finally combat operations stopped and American troops mainly conducted anti-terrorism operations and trained Afghan forces. In recent years the war has gradually disappeared from the national discussion in the U.S. and is barely talked about. President Trump wants to end the war even if it means talking to the Taliban and negotiations directly with the Taliban are ongoing.  One result of this war is the aversion to costly international entanglements and the highly unpopular nature of the conflicts. There are serious costs of the conflict in terms of neglected domestic priorities including infrastructure, loss of U.S. technological edge in key industries, and the competition from China, an the investments in health, education, services that were not made, the increase in inequalities and the diminishing of the middle class. The global financial crisis of 2008, the result of faulty banking, added an economic dimension through the loss of middle class savings in the U.S., worsening the financial situation of the middle class in the U.S.    ...

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Color maps of home rental price increases by county regions in the US are shown in this report in the Washington Post. Though rent prices increased by 19% since 2019 prices increased for rent by only 1% in 2024, according to Washington Post analysis of rent data from CoStar Group. See how rents have increased by county regions in color maps. Price increases are cooling off, in some cases declining, says this report. US president Biden has proposed a limit of 5% for increases in home rentals. Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed help for families paying more than 30% of household income for home rentals.

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776 million euros -cost of COP30 Summit in Amazon region's Belem, capital of Para State in Brazil. 159 countries are represented in this unique effort to bring climate change issues to the Amazon river. The Portuguese colonized this region in 1616 because of its location connecting the Amazon river to the Atlantic Ocean. It is known for sale of spices, fruit, fish, rubber, oil, cacao and other local products shipped to Europe and other parts of Brazil.Ver-o-peso one of the biggest open air markets has been renovated, roads repaired and new roads built, new parks, water treatment plants set up.Yet most of the population of 1.4 million lives in shanty areas or slums in Belem which are affected when rain leads to floods overwhelming the tin roof houses. Much of the nearly billion euro investment is going to bring Belem to international standards. Housing 50,000 participants was ahuge task and the Brazilian government of president Lula brought in 2 large cruis ships to accomodate many of the participants. This report in FR24 says prices for accomodation reached $4000 a night which shows that in today's world climate change action which is a problem facing all people, has been embraced by groups that can afford such costly daily rentals creating skepticism from ordinary people affected by the cost of living concerns. ...

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The US budget deficit for 2022 comes down to $1.4 trillion in 2022 from $2.6 trillion in 2021 after end of much emergency pandemic spending.

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After making headlines the issue of TikTok is no longer making news. Here is what has happened since- TikTok took the case to the Supreme Court after the Biden Administration's effort to bring it under US security with American ownership. The Supreme Court ruled in favor of the government. Social media helped Republicans and DJT in the election. DJT wanted TiTok to be an American company if it was to operate in US. China was opposed to this and would not allow ByteDance the owner of TikTok negotiate this-leading to an impasse. The DJT administration worked out a relationship  with China by September 2025 following tit for tat tariffs in May 2025. Xi's strategy was to put rare earths on the table after it had gained a 90% monopoly on rare earths processing technologies and supplies. Some supplies include a site in Greenland, so that the Greenland issue as opponents of US acquisition have made appear is not fiction. DJT Administration pulled back and negotiated a deal with China but realized how the US had left key gaps in its security which is why the Greenland issue came up in 2025. Similar to how Democrat president Harry Truman had done as the Soviets expanded influence in Greece and Turkey by 1948. Little of this making it to almost the entire US press and the entire European press, including Democrat Harry Truman's 1947 offer of $100 million ($1.5 billion in 2026) for Greenland, rights, title and ownership similar to Alaska purchase by Seward, and US Virgin Islands purchase in 1916 from Denmark.   The deal makes TikTok an American/ China investor run company with Byte Dance ownership of 20%, Oracle 15%, Silverlake US equity firm 15%, Abu Dhabhi (UK type) MGX 15%, and prior investors 30%. Prior investors are General Atlantic, SIG, Steve Case's Revolution with JD Vance having equity, Dragoneer, NJJ Capital. The company now valued at $20 billion based on 200 million US users. Yet this does not address the dangers and damage done by social media hours for youth in the US, endless hours from education shifted to phones and social media videos. Australia has banned it for under 16 year olds, UK parliament has voted to ban, French parliament has also voted for a ban, China has strict rules that protect its youth for use specifying hours and restrictions, leaving the US and India, Brazil vulnerable to dangers of social media. Strictly speaking You Tube is considered as social media even though it serves an information function, Facebook and TikTok are where a lot of the damage to education takes place in social media. US is entirely leaving its young people especially women unprotected. Once the fentanyl issue is tackled attention will again focus on these dangers to creating good citizens in the US  with civic education if democracy is to be preserved, something endless numbers of lobbyists- which even in Teddy Roosevelt's and FDR's, JFK's days have opposed- will again oppose.     ...

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Public opinion experts in Israel say President Obama's policy in the Middle East is seen by a majority of Israelis as reflecting a sound judgement. Obama's approval ratings in Israel are up 13 percentage points compared to 2010. It is now 54%, according to December opinion polls by Mr. Telhami, a University of Maryland professor who supervised the surveys on Israeli opinion. Only 19% of Israelis now support Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities without U.S. support, according to the University of Maryland survey by Mr. Telhami of 500 people, that was annouced last week.

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First Tesla truck has 500 mile range, center driving position, and fast charging. It is becoming popular with truckers.