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Keller reflects on Putin and Russia's effort to pull Ukraine away from the European Union as protests continue in Ukraine.

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This report by David Sanger of the NYT shows how the Russia sanctions that president Putin hoped to remove are likely to remain in place and somewhat expanded. Russia's economy has seen slow growth of 1% as a result of a fall in foreign investment. This is likely to continue, says Sanger. American investment in privatization will be restricted to not more than $10 million, and the investments in Nord Stream pipeline are affected. Russia needs foreign investment in its economy, and this is affected. Sanger points out that even if president Trump and Secretary of State Tillerson preferred the option of having presidential authority to lift sanctions to improve relations with Russia, this now runs into Congressional opposition. At the Aspen Security Forum in mid July, Dan Coats and Mike Pompeo, senior intelligence officials in the administration, said that there was an effort to influence the U.S. election. The problems started with the opposition movement in Ukraine, leading to the collapse of the government in 2014. Before this Russia- U.S. relations followed the trajectory set early in the Putin first  and second term of improving the economy by forging better relations with the EU and the U.S. This resulted in a stronger economy and more foreign investment. Things deteriorated after the Ukraine issue came into prominence. For the U.S., the EU and Russia, an inability to come to a better understanding and resolve differences on Ukraine has created a downward trajectory, that has not benefited any of the countries involved.   ...

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The Russian economy has proved stronger than other emerging markets in a similar situation. The ruble has declined from 35 to the dollar before the Ukraine crisis and sanctions in 2014 to 86 to the dollar in Jan. 2016. Foreign currency reserves dropped from $600 billion to $385 billion in 2009, when Russia with memories of 1997 when the ruble collapsed, decided to prop up the ruble. In Nov. 2014 Russia's central bank let the ruble float, this time responding in a different way following western sanctions over Ukraine and a emerging markets crisis. Interest rates were increased to tackle inflation.A key rate was raised to 17% in Dec. 2014, dropping by Jan 2016 to 11%. Inflation was 12.9% in Dec. 2015, the target for 2017 is 4%. The economy has contracted by 3.7% in 2015, and expected to contract by 1% in 2016, according to the IMF. Alexsei Kudrin, former finance minister, expects modest growth in 2017.

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Overseas travel from Russia is cut down significantly as US and European Union restrict Russian planes from flying over their airspace. Many Russian planes in Europe were grounded after the invasion of Ukraine. The UAE and Central Asia, Turkey are frequent destinations for Russian planes following the invasion and the response of the US and the EU. Dubai is the single most frequent destination say the NYT.

During the pandemic China reduced overseas travel significantly. Fewer Americans and Europeans are traveling to China with the lockdowns and zero covid policies. The result is that people living in China and Russia have significantly less contact in 2022 with the outside world compared to 2019 the year before the pandemic. The flow of information is also affected with the state controlling more of the information that people see in Russia and China.

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A small town mayor who says he will fight with Biden for workers and families in every county in Pennsylvania wins the Senate seat against aTV health show host favored by Mr. Trump. The scrappy fight put up by Democrats on their own in different parts of the country is the main takeaway from this election for control of running 36 of America's 51 states and control of Congress. Fighting an election with major legislation on controlling healthcare costs and for renewable energy, infrastructure investments, Mr. Biden and fellow Democrats was forced into a back to the wall fight because of price increases from Russia's war in Ukraine. Voters took notice not falling for the message on inflation alone that is being tackled by the Fed's Jerome Powell, giving room for seeing the larger picture.

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Mr. Macron told television viewers of a national debate with Le Pen that "she wants to take France out of the European Union, she just doesn't say it." The debate showed the clear differences between Macron and Le Pen on the European Union, on Russia and the invasion of Ukraine, on Le Pen's ties with Russia that Macron noted  during the debate. Le Pen brought up the raising of the pension age to 65 which Macron says would be done very gradually over 10 years, and Macron responded by saying this was to be able to increase pension payments and increase investments in the economy.

A snap poll by polling firm Elabe showed that for viewers of the debate the candidate they found most convincing was Macron at 59% and Le Pen at 39%.

 

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For someone in his 100th year and having conducted the opening to China Mr Kissinger deserves to be heard. He brings a perspective from the Austrian German school of thinking which adds to other perspectives of where the world is and the way forward. His insights are shaped by the Austrian Metternich and Briton Casterleigh in his book A World Restored (1957) and the experience gained from their shaping a peace that lasted from about 1815 to 1914. He sees China but completely misses the future and potential of India and Indonesia that together make up the largest population and twin nations in the world. India changes everything as seen from its potential to bring peace to Ukraine and bring Russia- and even China with its shared heritage of Buddhism- into the world shaped by the Anglo-Saxons (US and Britain, France) and Germany.

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A country smaller than the US state of Connecticut will host the first World Cup Soccer games in the Arab world from November 21 to December 18. England will play US , the day after Thanksgiving.

Group A  Netherlands with Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal

Group B   England with Iran, US, Wales or Scotland/Ukraine

Group C.  Argentina with Saudi, Mexico, Poland

Group D   France with Peru, Australia/United Arab Emirates, Denmark, Tunisia

Group E  Spain, Germany, Japan with Costa Rica or New Zealand

Group F  Belgium with Canada, Morocco, Croatia

Group G.  Brazil with Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon

Group H   Portugal with Ghana, Uruguay, South Korea 

Defending champion France has it better in its group. 

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This WSJ report takes a look at Bucha, a town 55 kilimetres from Kviv, that saw some of the worst fighting of the war. Civilians were caught in the crossfire and after the initial Russian assault was pushed back, Russia occupied the town with another assault before being pushed out. This report in WSJ says Russian soldiers were initially polite and helped residents. As their casualites grew, and as Ukraine's territorial defense forces took up the fight in Bucha the dividing line between who is defending the town and local residents started to disappear.  This is when the the civilian casualties mounted and when Russian soldiers who had intially even said they did not know why they were here and why there was a war began to see territorial defense forces in all civilians leading to the immense destruction in Bucha.

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The threat of climate change is becoming real in China with drought and heat waves. The impact on agriculture is feared as it may affect the autumn crop. For the first time the awareness of climate change is taking on a new urgency, with state media reporting on it with new emphasis. China having to import grain would put pressure on world supplies of foodgrains. It is therefore imperative that China also join in support of keeping Black Sea ports of Ukraine free and able to supply Egypt and North Africa to reduce pressure on world foodgrain markets.  This could also help shorten the war with a return to work on  important goals of climate change, renewing homes and industry for conversion to renewable energy,  restructuring trade so that there is no extreme dependence, and social security, healthcare needs of the Chinese people.

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The unease in rural areas was accompanied by unease among younger people 18-34 years over cost of living, and the unease among Latinos in general and Black people without a college degree. 

Taking an approach to the wars that would remove them as distractions by looking for a settlement in Ukraine through negotiations, and prioritizing strong action on the border, price surges would have helped Biden tackle pressing issues that caused so much unease. These opportunities were missed.

Objectively assessing this unease, and not listening enough without preconceived ideas, are needed for issues from the Ukraine conflict, illegal immigration and cost of living surges. So that changes in policy could be made based on the facts and evolving situations on the spot to not let the unease accumulate.

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Gregory White and Anton Troianovski provide this exceptional account of how Russian president Putin miscalculated all through 2013 and 2014 about the way Germany and the EU would respond to Russia's actions in Ukraine. Putin also according to other accounts miscalculated how Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations would act on maintaining oil production in the middle of a slowdown in the economies of Asia and Europe. A combination of events beyond his control such as the economic slowdown in the second half of 2014, with the miscalculations on OPEC price moves particularly following Russia's failed Syrian intervention disrupting Saudi-Russian relations, caused the damage. Major miscalculations were made about German cooperation in the face of Putin's moves- the changed convictions of German chancellor Merkel about Russian intentions following repeated Ukraine interventions, and changes in German public opinion following the downing of a Malaysian airliner flight in which many Dutch citizens lost their lives. Putin used subterfuge to coverup his actions making his story line less credible with Germans with each repetition. The result of these miscalculations and lost confidence in Russia's economy and policymaking is that the Ruble dropped to 62 to the dollar, losing nearly half its value in 2014, and a deep recession expected in 2015. Even though Russian takeover in Crimea enjoys support and Putin still has widespread support for nationalist policy with a tightly controlled media, many officials in the government and business leaders warned about the dangers for Russia's economy in 2014. Former finance minister Kudrin, and the head of Sberbank, who were principal architects for Russian finances and economic policy reforms, were clear about the dangers. Only by Nov- Dec 2014 were their voices being heard. ...

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Mikhail Gorbachev calls the Russian parliament Speaker Sergey Naryshkin's idea of looking into the reunification of Germany as an annexation of East Germany, a form of "nonsense." This was originally stated by a Communist member of the Russian parliament Nikolay Ivanov, who sees this as "a retaliatory step" to Chancellor Merkel's criticism of the annexation of Crimea. Merkel said at the Davos forum- "The annexation of Crimea is a violation of something that has made up our peaceful coexistence, namely the protection of borders and territorial integrity." Merkel and Putin now have profound differences. Putin sees the world of Russia in terms of its relations with border states such as Ukraine, the Baltics and Poland in terms of the Soviet Union and Czarist Russia's influence in Eastern Europe, as a part of Russia's legitimate interests. Merkel and Germans see it differently, with the collapse of the Prussian military state and Czarist Russia, and the collapse of Nazis and the Soviet Union, in succession, Germany is fully committed to a new view of relations between states in Europe based on democratic processes, respecting the views of people in Kiev to decide their own future. This reflects a new mood in Europe with increased funding for Deutsche Welle, Germany's broadcasting service to the world, in response to increased broadcasting by Russia Today, Russia's news service....

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India European Union Trade Deal - huge potential for EU and India for 2 billion people size markets, new manufacturing hubs, and advanced scientific + technological cooperation. Timing is critical. From the first term of DJT 2016-2020 it became clear that the supply chain concentration in China was a serious error for America and Europe. Modi came into manage the federal government in India in 2014- that first phase was to tackle the basic problems in health care sanitation and road infrastructure, agriculture. By the second term of DJT Europe had realized something had to be done to reduce concentration of trade  supply chains in China. Two things had to happen to bring India and EU together. The Ukraine War and China's indirect participation on the side of Russia, the change in administration from Merkel to SPD's Schulz,  and in 2026 to Merz and the CDU created a new awareness of the need for EU and India to come together. Yet Scholz SPD hung onto the special trade relationship even in the face of the Ukraine war and China's shift when it allowed the port of Hamburg stake taken by China to be retained. Something had to happen to jerk Germany and with it the EU out of its inability to shift towards India. Merz took this step in 2026 as the relationship with China soured over Ukraine war and the grasp of the dangers of overconcentration of the China relationship with Germany that Merkel had created. On the other side Modi had to get India's logistics, road and rail networks, ports ready for such a trade relationship where goods could be quickly shipped into and out of India. Modi worked on these investments on a rapid basis in his second and third terms. India had to offer stability in the relationship. This meant winning elections to set up state governments in key states such as Maharashtra for Bombay (Mumbai) region, Delhi capital region, and Bihar/ Orissa (Patna region northeast), Rajasthan (Jaipur northwest region), local city governments in Bombay (Mumbai) region and in the south in Andhra (Vizag region) + Trivandrum (Kerala). The combination of federal and state and city governments working in unison plus logistics and transportation, put India in contention for the role of a size and magnitude that would make a difference for Europe in its relations with China and Russia. That necessity was now fulfilled and in place. Merz and Modi, seized the chance at the kite festival in Gujarat's Ahmedabad, with a vist to the Sabarmati Ashram of modern India's founder Mohandas Gandhiji. Von Der Leyen also from CDU now joins the former premier of Portugal Antonio de Costa as heads of EU to attend the Republic Day parade celebrations in New Delhi on January 26. Nothing happened by chance. It took the hard work that in Robert Frost's words in Mowing ( "the fact is the sweetest dream that labor knows my long scythe whispered, for the earnest love that laid the swale in rows"). Japan plunged headlong into imperial ambitions after its modernization, China has ambitions under its Communist/ Markets system, India as the homeland of the Buddha and the Buddhist civilization of China, Japan and Indochina, and with its special place for Mohandas Gandhiji brings the European civilization in connection with a civilization that is just as old and advanced as the European in its philosophical and religious foundations with practice in real life, and not likely to flounder on the rocks as the Japanese and Chinese expansionist ambition based ideas. And once again with Robert Frost in- Putting in the Seed in Springtime, for Merz, Leyen, Da Costa, and for Gandhi and Modi - "On through the watching for that early birth when just as the soil tarnishes with weed, The sturdy seedling with arched body comes shouldering its way and shedding the earth crumbs."     ...

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This report in the WSJ gives the background and positions taken by Patriarch Krill of the Russian Orthodox Church, and his support for the war in Ukraine as part of Russian lands nationalism. Russian lands nationalism is an idea that comes from the beginnings of the Russian version of Christianity that had its origins in Kviv Ukraine in the 10th century. Patriarch Krill has had a varied role questioning some some state policies and then backing off and supporting the state says WSJ. In 2011 patriarch Krill stood up for protesters critical of manipulation in parliamentary elections that year. Patriarch Krill grew up in the years of Soviet rule and was 24 in 1970 when he began his work in the church. He was rector of a seminary in Leningrad by 1984 and after being critical of the Soviets and war in Afghanistan was sent to Smolensk says this report in WSJ. After he returned he worked with the Soviet state, and after voicing concerns in 2011 about parliamentary elections described as manipulated he has supported the Russian state as it becomes assertive about Russian lands nationalism. To understand the Orthodox Church in Russia one has to know its presence in the post Soviet period. About 63% of Russians belong to the Orthodox Church. It also includes Ukrainians. After Crimean invasion by Russia the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that makes up one third of the Russian Orthodox parishes was recognized as a separate church by Patriarch Bartholomev of Constantinople. Patriarch Bartholomev and Pope Francis the two leaders of the eastern and western churches in Constantinople and Rome have been critical of Patriarch Krill and his support for the war and the idea of Russian lands nationalism. Since the war some parishes in Russia have signed a letter opposing the killing of brothers in Christ and one parish leader was fined $500 for his statements. There is now intense debate among Russians about what this war means in bringing conflict on brotherly peoples about their preferences in 2022 for aligning with Europeans in the western part of Europe. For most of Europe in the 21st century there is a big change, in the countries near the Baltic sea in Northern Europe, in countries in the middle of Europe, in Eastern Europe, the 21st century is seen as a time when states and peoples are making their own choices about freedom and what their preferences are particularly the young people. They no longer understand or conform to ideas of the earlier period or centuries. And this is what has made Ukrainian young people oblivious about what Russian lands nationalism means and its relevance today. Buddhism is today not prevalent in South Korea a democratic state and in China a Communist state in the way it existed for centuries. For it to be relevant people need to begin to believe in it as in Japan or Sri Lanka or Thailand. In the 21st century young people are making different choices and this may well be where the Ukraine war shows that people's choices count particularly in the 21st century, and it has little to do with the west or the US or NATO or even Russia. ...

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U.S. president Trump will host NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg at the White House on April 12, 2017, as tensions between Russia and the U.S. increase following the U.S. missile strikes in Syria. White House officials say Trump is "100% committed to NATO." In May Trump will meet other heads of government at a NATO meeting in Brussels. 

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The $17 discount for Russian oil to Brent crude is a result of the president's efforts with sanctions plus tariffs on China and India to cut oil purchases from Russia. This puts a strain on Russia in financing the war with Ukraine. Bothe China and India have cut purchases of Russian oil in recent weeks and the Indian refinery at Jamnagar no longer gets Russian oil, according to recent reports. DJT was criticized for his stance on Indian tariffs as inconsistent with the agreement with China on rare earths. It now appears that China and India have both agreed to stop financing the Russian war effort with big oil purchases and are shifting it to other places such as Brazil, Guyana and Canada. India plans large oil purchases and arms purchases from the US and this is part of the trade agreement being negotiated with India. About one third of the additional 240 million barrels of oil on the seas in tankers is Russian oil being stored for lack of buyers with total oil on waters at 1.4 billion barrels. This has led to a 48% increase in tanker costs to $125,000 a day. All this makes it harder for the Russian economy to sustain the war effort as the US pushes both sides to settle the Ukraine conflict in the 28 Points Peace Plan negotiated with important Russian negotiators in Washington DC over 3 days last week. ...