LyrArc Article Gist
There was some element of reckless behaviour when Britain tossed aside misgivings to let Tories let in private sector investing into companies in the water sector. The WSJ now calls it the world's largest failure in private sector water investment. Today there is eColi in the water in River Thames so much so that in the Oxford Cambridge rowing race rowers were advised not to make contact wih the water. It goes back to Victorian sewers which was a problem not tackled by companies interested in profits in areas that wiser men had decided is best done by public sector investment. These are the hidden failures of the Thatcher/Reagan years that are only now coming to light. The company Thames Water loaded up on debt to pay investors dividends while the company failed to upgrade London's sewer system, which has spilled what amounts to 34,000 Olympic swimming pools of raw sewage into the river since 2020. The US has not been so reckless as most water and sewage systems are still publicly owned. Near central London a matted mountain of wet wipes and sanitary products along with sewage washed into River Thames is called Wet Wipe Island. Thames Water took on so much debt $23 billion that it defaulted on its debt. How could this be in a modern developed nation, and what about all the other infrastructure investments in Britain rusting  from the Industrial Revolution that need investment? Tories have let Britain down. There are lessons for the US and Germany, France, India and China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The US dollar is rapidly appreciating against currencies such as the Indian rupee, the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. The aggressive interest rate policy in the US and investor sense that the US central bank will take action against inflation is one reason the US dollar is stronger and will continue to strengthen in coming years. The weakness of emerging market currencies, the Bank of Japan's policy to continue keeping interest rates low, and the stronger US economy vs the European economy as Europe struggles with a war and cutoff of energy supplies from Russia, are other reasons for a stronger dollar in 2023 and beyond.

LyrArc Article Gist
Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman meets IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva to discuss impact of the geopolitical situation on world growth especially oil prices. Sitharaman said India was pursuing a policy of strong federal spending with capital expenditures increasing by 35% for fiscal 2022-23 to continue a public investment led recovery, raising capital expenditures from 5.5 lakh crore rupees to 7.5 lakh crore rupees. Indian GDP growth is now expected at 8-8.5%, the highest of large economies. Sitharaman also met with Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati on the sidelines of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting and discussed the current global situation.

LyrArc Article Gist
US public companies, manufacturers and retailers that make up more than half of the S&P 500 index, came out with strong sales per share of 24% increase in 2022 over 2019. This means slower growth is expected ahead in 2023, says Justin Lahart in the WSJ.  The shift to consuming more services such as dentist visits and tourism from buying washing machines and appliances will mean slower sales for these large companies that are manufacturers and retailers. Fed chairman Jay Powell's higher interest rates will also limit growth in sales in 2023. Overall the US economy may barely skirt a recession, and this depends on which forecaster one talks to.

LyrArc Article Gist
US president Biden makes a pledge that the US will send vaccine doses overseas to other countries after it has met American needs. This is hugely important because the US has contracted with pharmaceutical companies for a major part of the world's vaccine supplies. It is part of the humanitarian assistance the US will soon be in a position to provide to African, Asian and Latin American countries. It is also in the American interest to reduce the potential for new variants and new sources of the virus entering the US through airline travel by helping vaccinate a large part of the world's population in 2021-2022.

LyrArc Article Gist
One of the changes in 2023 in Germany is the increasing acceptance of the use of the English language as Germany opens up to the world under the Scholz administration. Chancellor Scholz from Hamburg with its close ties to northern Europe and Britain, Foreign Minister Baerbock who studied at the London School of Economics, and Christian Lindner FDP leader from Bonn, use English as an alternative language to reach a broader audience. The FDP and Lindner are pushing for the use of English as an alternative second language in public administration.  DW.com looks at the changes and what they mean for the future and the next generation.

LyrArc Article Gist
Suella Braverman could leave Rishi Sunak's authority as British prime minister in tatters, say senior Tories in this report in The Guardian. A former cabinet minister says the Suella message is driving voters away from the core Tory voter base in the south east of England, and is doing great damage to the electoral  prospects of the Conservative party in Britain. The latest episode involves differences with the Met, the Police in Britain as it tackles protests over the war in the Middle East, and appealing to her small base within the Tory party ignoring the authority of the prime minister and the interests of the Conservative party.

LyrArc Article Gist
A key base of support for DOnald Trump is faltering after the release of a lewd videotape of Trump's comments on women. A Reuters/Ipsos poll now shows Trump having only a one point lead over Clinton among evangelicals. This is a key base of Republican support in any presidential election. Christianity Today is cited here in an editorial saying support was impossible for a man with the background of Trump for "greed and sexual morality." It also said that such support only gives people next to us wonder about whether we believe in Jesus Christ as Lord, and only proves the self focus we are wrapped up in.

LyrArc Article Gist
Who is Jordan Bardella, at age 28, from Seine St Dennis suburb of Paris, who as BBC reports never went to university, has no experience in government, and never worked outside of the RN National Rally party except one summer at his father's company. Is he the right stuff to run France asks BBC reports. Macron calling snap elections gives little time to National Rally to come up with a more experienced candidate. BBC News looks at Jordan Bardella and the role he has played in Marine Le Pen's RN party in France. BBC says until recently it would have been inconceivable that France would have a candidate this young and lacking experience.

LyrArc Article Gist
French premier Barnier meets Marie Le Pen of National Rally. National Rally says it will veto any policies that reduce the purchasing power of the French people. Barnier lays out austerity policies and cuts in spending. National Rally had 8 seats, after this year's election it has 125 seats in the National Assembly. The Socialist bloc is the largest party but lacks amajority to form a government. Les Republicains party, Macron's party with National Rally's support are running the administration till another election is called to clear up the situation of no party having a majority. Macron remains president till May 2027 to oversee the situation.

LyrArc Article Gist
This essay in the Economist magazine describes the voter rejection of ruling parties and their candidates in France. Two presidents and two former prime ministers from the Socialist party and the Republican Party, Hollande and Sarkozy, Valls and Fillon face rejection. And another candidate from the Republican party Juppe also has fared poorly. This leaves two outsiders LePen of the National Front, and Macron a former Economy minister in the Hollande government who launched En Marche as his own movement for moderate change alternative in 2016. The rural-urban and less educated-more educated divide which was evident in voting in the U.S. election and the Brexit referendum is now seen in France, says this essay. Research from the Economist shows National Front support highest in outlying areas of major cities. The fears of immigration, terrorism, and globalization leaving parts of the working class behind are factors in this election. Support for the European Union is also a factor as it has suffered in recent years.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
An excerpt from the hearings on the major questions doctrine and separation of powers with Congress. JUSTICE ROBERTS: Sometime ago you dismissed the applicability of the major questions doctrine, and I -- I want -- want you to explain that a little bit more. I mean, it seems that it might be directly applicable. You have a claimed source in IEEPA that had never before been used to justify tariffs. No one has argued that it does until this -- this particular case. Congress uses tariffs in other provisions but -- but not here. And yet -- and correct me on this if I'm not right about it -- the justification is being used for a power to impose tariffs on any product from any country for -- in any amount for any length of time. That seems like -- I'm not suggesting it's not there, but it does seem like that's major authority, and the basis for the claim seems to be a misfit. So why doesn't it apply again? GENERAL SAUER: Well, we agree that it's a major power, but it's in the context of a statute that is explicitly conferring major powers, that the point of the statute is to confer major powers to address major questions, which are emergencies. So it would be unusual... And another excerpt from the hearings on fentanyl- JUSTICE KAGAN: And, in fact, you know, we've had cases recently which deals with the President's emergency powers, and it turns out we're in emergencies everything all the time about, like, half the world. GENERAL SAUER: Well, this particular emergency is particularly existential, as Executive Order 14257 says, and, of course, no one disputes the existential nature of the fentanyl crisis, which, you know, we had an agreement last week to create progress on, which illustrates the effectiveness of the tariffs tool (this refers to the agrement with China last week by Nov 1 that cuts the 20% tariff from 20% to 10% if China completely cuts off flow of fentanyl from inside its borders.)  Clearly some in the US have not grasped the existential nature of the fentanyl crisis, a crisis of proportions so great that it would be an existential crisis for any nation. A concentration of the world's manufacturing in one nation with a trade surplus of $1 trillion with the world is also an emergency that extends into the existential sphere. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Helena Morrissey of the 30% Club has helped increase the representation of women on Board of Directors in Britain to 23%. This is nearly double the figure in 2010. Helena Morrissey uses a non-confrontational approach, getting men to join the organization and having them act as advocates with other men in senior positions. She learned this after using other approaches which were less effective. She focusses on telling chairman of the boards that having women on the board provides different perspectives, and points to studies that show about 30% lets a minority voice be heard. Homogenous boards have been known to provide no new thinking or fresh perspective, a problem at many companies. The opportunity opened up with the finsncial crisis of 2008 and widespread opinion that the boards had failed to understand the crisis that was coming. She and 14 other women got the support of 2 prominent board chairmen in 2010 to start the 30's Club. A Commision by the new government led by Lord Davies provided additional impetus by recommending that 25% of a board be voluntarily set for women. Early in her career Helena was turned down for a promotion because she had a baby. She has nine children, which her husband a journalist helps take care of at home, making her situation even more unique. Helena Morissey is CEO of Newton Asset Management in London's financial district....

LyrArc Article Gist
Oxfam reports that about half of the people showing up at soup kitchens in the U.S. are people with one person in the family working at a minimum or low wage job. About 3.3 million American are affected at the $7 federal minimum wage. The White House proposes a $10 minimum wage that it say would affect 28 million Americans. For most of these people working mostly in low wage retail jobs this can mean having more food and often having the money to take a bus instead of having to walk to work.

LyrArc Article Gist
License plate number 1 sold for $14 million in the Unite Arab Emirates. Does this tell you that this boom isn't going to last though it may go on for some time and a lot of money is wasted.

LyrArc Article Gist
The prospect for increased consumer spending in China are not as strong as in the US. The increasing cost of living and the general uncertainty following the pandemic and release from covid restrictions mean that the average Chinese person is less inclined to spend. Savings pool is also smaller estimated at savings accumulated of $425 million during the pandemic years 2020-2022 compared to the US savings accumulation of $2.3 trillion in 2020 to 2021. US public also received cash payments which supported spending, and China by comparison had no cash payments.

LyrArc Article Gist
Baby boomers are aging and leaving the workforce. Not enough people are expected to replace them to meet the higher demand for infrastructure workers to rebuild America's roads, bridges, airports, rail, and other infrastructure. US president Biden' $1.4 trillion investment planned for renovating infrastructure will mean a large demand for workers that will be difficult to meet, says this report in NYT. Fewer students are going into community colleges, and fewer new workers are replacing older workers who retire in the construction related industries.

LyrArc Article Gist
The high energy costs and the need for the funding approved by the European Union mean the new Italian government of Giorgia Meloni will work closely with the EU. Italy's difficult fiscal situation with high debt to GDP limit the possibilities for Meloni to carry out policies independent of the EU. Her election campaign was fought mainly on cultural issues, opposing immigration and calling for a return to family and Catholic values, while extending support to the European Union positions on energy and other issues, says the WSJ.

LyrArc Article Gist
Improving performance of Toyota, Nissan and Honda in the U.S., Japan and emerging markets. Japanese automakers report higher profits in the fiscal fourth quarter. Sales for 2012 are expected to quadruple for Toyota in the 2012 fiscal year compared to fiscal 2011, according to analyst estimates. Part of the recovery is from weakening of the yen from 75 to the U.S. dollar in October 2011 to 81 in the March-April 2012 period. Profit margins are expected to improve for Toyota from 1.5% to 5.1% for Toyota, 5.4% to 7% for Nissan and 2.5% to 6.8% for Honda.

LyrArc Article Gist
"In the spring of 1971, I met a girl," with that beginning Bill Clinton gave one of the most memorable speeches at a Democratic Convention in history, to introduce the very human, Hillary- sometimes frail, but always looking for new mountains to climb, new barriers to break, new injustices to be righted. Of the long courtship at Yale and the years at Arkansas, buying that house in Little Rock Hillary liked before proposing marraige,  the time when they cried while leaving their daughter Chelsea at college dorm in Stanford; and all the private moments of a political couple one gregarious and outward looking, the other serious and inward looking. An introduction to someone you have heard too much about but you never knew. Never saw too close because of her intense longing for privacy- possibly coming from her own mother- Methodist upbringing that you were never the one to focus on, and family experience. Bill had seen this Methodist up close, and shared his experience with his countrymen who had not known her so well as he had.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
France and Britain are finally combining efforts to stop illegal migrants. France targets taxi boats taking about half of migrants crossing the English Channel. The. two governments of France and UK are cooperating so that French maritime police can now stop these taxi boats. This is essential to get the Home Secretary's plan to adopt Denmark's example in cutting flow of illegal migrants that is essential for tranquillity in small towns and cities across the UK. UK Reform party is in a position to push the Labour government out of power less than 2 years after it won by a landslide showing that in today's world there is less or no patience of the people with illegal migration. And absolutely no patience with benefits going to illegal migrants that take up parts of the budget when many needs of the local population are not met.

LyrArc Article Gist
The emphasis on clarity in communicating monetary policy taken by Ben Bernanke at the U.S. Federal Reserve. This is of special significance as political parties in the U.S. face tough fiscal cliff negotiations in Dec. 2012. The Fed laid out its plan on interest rates in clear and precise terms, giving for the first time a specific figure on unemployment of 6.5%. The Fed plans to keep rates low till unemployment drops to 6.5%, as long as inflation is subdued at about 2-2.5% and long term inflation expectations remain low. A similiar approach was adopted by Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank by clearly communicating intentions for buying bonds of Spain and Italy in July 2012 with his statement "Believe me this will be enough." This contrasts with the style of central bank chief Shirakawa at the Bank of Japan which has led to serious criticism in Japan.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lt. Gen John Allen will succeed Gen Petraeus in leading the war effort in Afghanistan. Allen was the deputy commander in Anbar province, Iraq, from 2006-2008. He backed Colonel Sean MacFarland's efforts to get Sunni tribal leaders to join the U.S. against Al Quaeda militants- which came to be called the Sunni Awakening. Allen is close to Gen. Petraeus and has the skills and diplomacy that Petraeus is known for. He is described as someone who understands that the war in Afghanistan involves policy, politics, perceptions and diplomacy.

LyrArc Article Gist
Applebaum describes the accounting errors in the Trump 2017 Budget which makes unrealistic assumptions of 3% growth to show higher revenue generation of $2.1 trillion over ten years, and uses that revenue to fix higher deficits from tax cuts- counting the same number twice. A former Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers, calls it the most egregious accounting error he has seen in 40 years.