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Ben Inker of Grantham Mayo sees profitability at U.S. companies at a high because of savings in labor costs while consumption has not declined because of government transfer payments and fiscal policy. He sees profits of U.S. companies declining in 2012-2013. This makes the U.S. stocks less likely to perform well in the future, especially the stocks outside of the blue chips which he sees as highly overvalued. A better choice in his view is in Europe and Japan which are undervalued. His funds have 39% in U.S. stocks and most of it in blue chip stocks. His view is that interest rate policy will not have a large effect as the changes will be very gradual, and going from zero percent interest rates to one percent interest rates will not lead to much change in economic activity. From his point of view the largest risk is in shrinking of profits at U.S. companies as the deficit comes down, because today workers are able to maintain consumption because of fiscal policy and companies are able to cut costs. In Europe the austerity cuts are being taken seriously and this will impact profits, so the U.S. will look better in 2012. But value will prevail in the long run as European and Japanese stocks are undervalued and the U.S runup leaves stocks overvalued in terms of future stream of profits....

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August 12, 2015 marks the change in shareholding structure at The Economist. Pearson, which sold its stake in the Financial Times newspaper to Japan's publisher Nikkei, sold its stake in The Economist, as it shifted its focus to the education industry. Pearson had a non-controlling 50% stake in the magazine since 1928. Three fifths of these shares are being sold to a minority shareholder, Exor, the holding company of the Agnelli family in Italy. The rest of the Pearson shares are being bought by the parent company, The Economist Group. In this editorial the magazine's editors describe the background in which this takes place, and the reasons why this will be good for the magazine and its independence. The shares held by The Economist Group are controlling shares, which ensure the independence of the publication.

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Robert Reilly, an assistant to President Reagan, former director of Voice of America, says don't underestimate the importance of what the younger Bush as president called "the vision thing." Efficiency experts like Hoover, and Republican candidates who had business and other professional experience but could not grasp the moral imperative in politics such as Alf Landon (1936), Wendell Wilkie (1940), Thomas Dewey (1944 and 1948) failed to convince voters. Democrats presented ideas like the Fair Deal, New Deal (FDR), New Frontier (Kennedy), Great Society (Johnson) and captured this "vision thing" to win. This is why he is skeptical about Romney as business and management consultant coming in and bringing change with a number of management consultants. Reagan also presented the choice in moral terms which were then translated into how the government would function to fulfill the moral imperative, says Reilly.

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US Senate lawmakers agreed to increase the FDIC deposit insurance limits to $250,000 from $100,000. These limits have not been permanently increased since 1980- the increase in late 2008 was a temporary measure to support the banking system. Credit rating agencies pushed hard to avoid the setting up of a credit ratings watchdog agency and succeeded. Under Senator Al Franken's provision a government overseen credit ratings agency board would be setup and it would assign new financial products to ratings agencies for rating. 63 Senators had supported this provision in a Senate debate. Intense lobbying from ratings agencies to avoid this government oversight resulted in shelving of this provision. The change is to ask the SEC to study the conflict of interests issue and how an independent agency might function, and give the SEC authority to setup such a system.

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Alice Rivlin's efforts to break the deadlock in the bipartisan Obama administration commission. The commission was setup to recommend ways to control the US budget deficit. This group is paralyzed by politics as Democrats have tried to safeguard Social Security, and the Republicans are dead set against tax increases. Rivlin is working through a shadow commission on the deficit headed by former Senator Pete Domenici. This shadow commission is supported by the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank setup by former Republican and Democratic majority leaders. The idea is to get the process started through leaders of both parties, as happened in 1983, when Senators Monynihan and Dole initiated the process after a similiar deadlock. The agreement reached then led to a change in the Social Security law, which increased the cap on payroll taxes and raised the retirement age.

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Ford Motor opened its new plant in Chongqing, China. It was approved in 2009 and is operated in a joint venture with Chongqing Changan Automobile Company and Japan's Mazda Motor. It has annual capacity of 150,000 cars and will manufacture the redesigned Ford Focus. Ford says this will be part of 15 new models in China by 2015. Further expansion is expected to be slower from now on, because China's policy is shifting towards consoldating its manufacturing base for automobiles- which experienced hyper level growth in the last decade- and not adding new capacity. Ford made a late entry in the Chinese market compared to GM. It sold 519,300 vehicles in China in 2011, compared to GM's 2.55 million vehicles. The change in China's policy may mean Ford has less opportunity to catch up with VW, GM and Toyota in China.

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Mexico's Nobel Laureate novelist, Carlos Fuentes's first novel, "Where the Air is Clear," was published in 1958, when he was 29. He helped popularize other writers like the Columbian novelist Gabriel Garcia Marquez, as part of the renaissance in letters in Latin America called the "Boom." This includes another Mexican Nobel Laureate, the poet Octavio Paz. Paz published "Piedra del Sol" (Sunstone) in 1957. Like Paz Fuentes worked for the Mexican Foreign Ministry as a diplomat and could see things from the outside- the Mexican experience of indigenous and Spanish culture, the ideals of change and the dashed hopes in the last two hundred years as Mexico gained independence and struggled to establish democracy and social progress. Paz published the magazine Plural, which was a supplement to the newspaper Excelsior, and later after 1976, the magazine Vuelta. Both writers, were social critics.

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Jeff Sommer talks to Harvey Markovitz, considered the founder of portfolio theory, on share prices and the stock market. Markovitz says portfolio selection are the two most important words he wrote and the ones to remember. Building a diversified portfolio is the most important thing in investing. Markovitz says investors should forget about individual stocks and their oscillations, and buy low cost index stock and bond funds. Allocating these in a way that depends on the volatility and risk that the particular investor feels comfortable with. Rebalance the portfolio as needed periodically, and change allocations. Other than that do other hobbies, things that give you a greater sense of reward. Markovitz was deeply influenced by Hume's ideas of skepticism and the thought that one was never sure about the probability of an event occuring even if it had ocurred before.

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Syria borders Turkey, Israel, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon, placing it in a pivotal geographical location. Because of this unique geography what happens in Syria affects Turkey because of the Kurdish minority in Syria, it affects Lebanon because of Syrian support to Hezbollah, it affects Jordan because of demands for democracy there, and it affects Israel because of the Golan Heights. Meantime the Syrian democracy protests continue with the military crackdown by the Assad government, which has ruled Syria since Hafez Assad, an air force commander, took power in 1970. After his death power was passed on to his son, as has happened much too frequently in the Middle East, resulting in the stifling of any movement for change and participation in government. An added complication is that Assad comes from the minority Alawite sect in a largely Sunni country.

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U.S. president Obama at the G-7 Summit in Korn in the Bavarian Alps. He talks about the Islamic State having replenished its fighters with a flow of foreign fighters to Iraq continuing unimpeded, and resulting in tactical successes in Anbar province for ISIS. He also firms up the G-7's stand against the Putin government's actions and intervention in Ukraine. This takes time from the other issues of climate change and trade that were part of the discussions. One aspect of the summit was close interaction in the unique setting of the Bavarian Alps between president Obama and German chancellor Merkel. This was shown in unique photo settings, designed to convey the partnership between Germany and the U.S., as the G-7 confront problems in the Middle East and Eastern Europe that require joint leadership.

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What are the figures behind the 3.5% GDP growth numbers for the third quarter of 2009, and what does it tell us. This figure conceals real weaknesses in the economy covered up by substantial government support. About 1% of this was from auto vehicles and parts -where the cash for clunkers program played abig part and many have actually siphoned off future sales and put it in the present- 0.6% from federal spending, and 0.5% from residential investment where home builders were keen to take advantage of a $8000 government credit for homebuyers. This gives over 2.1% of GDP growth in the third quarter from government support. About 0.9% was from a change in inventories. And 0.8% was from other consumer goods and 0.6% from consumer services. Exports added 1.5% to GDP growth and imports were a negative 2%.

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Are these questionable assumptions by Fields that they can't find a way to get the Fiesta Econetic to the USA. THe pound is weakening against the dollar and may hit $1.50 by some estimates, and the cost of making the diesel engines in the UK can't be that much more than manufacture in the USA that it would be economically not possible to bring it here or make it here or in Mexico. Even if it sales in modest numbers wouldn't it show that at 65 mph the Fiesta Econetic shows that Ford has cars the give big mileage in its lineup. And about the popularity of clean diesel who can be sure that things won't change as the Europeans sell these cars here? This maybe Kiley's point that there are risks to Ford by not bringing these cars to the American market.

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Fake news ads on Google Search are a couple of the hard to believe results Hiroko Tabuchi finds in one of his searches using the words "climate change." One ad says "Global Warming Hoax." More alarming is the way the Google algorithm and a person's search history is used by Google to send that person what he likes or approves. So that a NYT reporter's account may show a different ad on Search for "climate change" - mostly positive ones from Environmental Defense Fund. Tabuchi says some of the ads calling climate change false are still appearing on Google even after the New York Times alerted Google about the problem.  A perceptive observer would find that that this is exactly how Search can end up reinforcing people and dividing them into different camps hostile to each other. More significantly it might make people resistant to even hear another person with different ideas, a problem we face today in American democracy. ...

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Studies by Mexico's Interior Ministry show that 62% of the $23 billion in remittances to Mexico by Mexicans living in the U.S. go to the lower middle class. As migration to the U.S. diminishes to zero Mexicans who are illegal aliens in the U.S. are returning to Mexico as small entrepreneurs using earnigs made in the U.S.. This offers them a chance for upward mobility and a return to families that they never had in the U.S., and is aiding the growth of a Mexican middle class. About 12 million Mexicans, or 15% of Mexico's labor force lives legally or illegally in the U.S., according to the Pew Hispanic Center. Experts say that in the first 3-5 years remittances go to help their families, after 7 years the money goes into savings and investment fueling growth of small towns such as Santa Maria in Mexico. About half of Mexico's 112 million people have family living in the U.S., which is having an influence on atttitudes and ways of thinking of the lower middle class that emigrated to the U.S.and is now returning to the country. Other factors are reinforcing the trends such as the lower price of consumer goods with the entry of retailers such as Wal-Mart and Costco into Mexico. Nestle, P&G, and Unilever, all sell at low price points in Mexico. The government's effort to setup a basic safety net subsidizing schooling, health care and food has also helped in this direction. Rapid change in demographics in all of Latin America, including Mexico with a shift to smaller families is creating new opportunities to invest in children for better educational opportunities and working lives....

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Germany's president Steinmeier is emerging as a key figure in the current effort to form a majority government in Germany under chancellor Merkel, reports Griff Witte in the Washington Post. This is because the FDP under Lindner with 11% of the vote has pulled out of the coalition talks, and the only alternative is for the SPD to change its position and agree to join the talks. Under Schulz the SPD has for 2 months turned down any effort to join the coalition talks. Partly because the SPD has not done well in recent elections and lost some of its worker base support. Some in the SPD have blamed this on the previous coalitions with the CDU party of Merkel. Steinmeier is a leader from the SPD who was foreign minister in the previous coalition of the CDU-SPD, and has greater influence on the SPD.  Steinmeier has pushed all parties to make another effort. This includes the SPD and Schulz now says the SPD shoulders "a responsibility to the country." After some prodding by Steinmeier and a 8 hour party meeting the SPD now says it will not say no to the talks. One SPD leader, a former mayor of Munich, says the SPD should be careful about what it says because we don't want to sound like "an agitated heap of chickens." In that case Schulz may step aside. ...

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In all elections since 2002 Mr. Erdogan has prevailed except June 2015. Much of the support for Erdogan is a result of economic gains by Turkey including 70% rise in per capita incomes since 2003.  These gains are under threat now because of heavy dependence on foreign investment and the decline of the currency Lira from 2.15 to the dollar in 2014 to 4.50 to the dollar in June 2018, losing half its value since the election of 2014. Experts say recent developments in Turkey have dented investor confidence, with investors uncertain about Mr. Erdogan's plans. The presidential candidate most likely to face Erdogan in a runoff election if Mr. Erdogan does not get 50% of the vote on June 24 is Mr. Muharrem Ince. Ince says he sees a wind of change, saying Turks are "very tired of this one-man regime" and that unlike before the economic trouble is so severe and harder to cover. This time the opposition is better coordinated and the secular CHP Party which was once dominant after Ataturk, is running in an alliance with traditional Islamist party Saadet, and with new secular nationalist Iyi party. Erdogan has called early elections a year and half ahead of time because he sees the economic troubles are at an early stage and his AKP Party would do better now than in 18 months when the economy may be in worse shape than it is now. ...

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Atul Aneja looks at Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's comments on the India- China relationship in March 2018.  The comments by Wang Yi show an extraordinary effort by the Foreign Minister to push for better relations. He raises the need for greater dialogue and "mutual trust" to improve the relations. Wang visited India in December during the period of tense relations and the post-Doklam meeting between prime minister Modi and president Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS meeting in Xiamen. India's Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale visited China in Feb. 2017. A China-India economic dialogue is planned for April, 2018, preceded by visits of Commerce Minister Zhong Shan and Guo Yezhou, Vice Minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China. Compared to the comments by both sides during the Doklam crisis there appears to be a significant change in policy. Wang refers to "more far-sighted leaders" who have realized the importance of the India- China relationship as that between the two largest developing countries each with a population of 1 billion.  In the context of events in early March with pressure from the Trump administration on trade with China- calling for China to come up with plans to reduce the trade surplus in 2018- and the growing influence of Mr. Lighthizer as a trusted advisor of president Trump and exit of Gary Cohn, this could be a strategic move.   ...

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Denmark's efforts backfire on Greenland. EU leaders have failed to separate Denmark's actions as a former colonial power in which it acquired Greenland in the Treaty of Kiel 1813 with Sweden and England during the Napoleonic Wars. And EU leaders have bought into Danish views designed to maintain control of Greenland that talk of the tribal population of about 50,000 over an island the size of Canada- smaller than would fit into a baseball stadium- that is largely unpopulated because of the sheet of ice all year round in the Arctic region. Much of the North of Greenland was first explored by the US Navy under Admiral Perry in the 1890's. Denmark has done little to develop the island or improve lives for the native Inuit. Secretary of State Seward wanted Greenland during the Alaska Purchase 1867 and it was sought by the US in 1900's, again in 1947 for $100 million by US president Harry Truman. It is "unwise" as Secretary Bessent has said for EU leaders to accept the canard that this is somehow just DJT's idea, and ignore it is essential for US security, it is part of the Western Hemisphere to which the Monroe Doctrine applies, and climate change melting ice has made it critical for US policy to address this gap in US security for the eastern seaboard of the US. For Denmark it is as the US commmanders in chief stated in 1947- "completely useless." ...

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The Russian economy had GDP decline of 2% and was relatively not affected by the shutoff of imports of oil and gas from Europe in 2022. Gas exports to Europe began declining in the summer. The EU ban on seaborne oil from Russia and price cap went into effect in December 2022. Russia made a huge stimulus of 4% of GDP in 2022. The result is that only now in 2023 is the full impact being felt on the Russian economy.  WSJ reports that in January and February Russian exports of oil and gas revenue which makeup half of the budget fell by 46% year over year, while state spending jumped 50%. Analysts estimate that it would take a price of $100 for Russia to balance its books. Yet the Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil has brought it down to $50- the price the Ministry of Finance says Urals crude sold in February. This is a deep discount to the $80 price of Brent Crude, the US benchmark.  A bigger problem is the downward trajectory the Russian economy faces in future years. Worker shortages are severe for industry and a shift to wartime production does not add to productivity or productive capacity. The cut off from access to western technology and western financial markets will have a severe impact in the productive capacity for the economy, for oil and industrial production in the years to 2030. Russia needed to protect against the gradual shift away from fossil fuels to fight climate change by shifting the economy in a new direction using its access to western technologies not just China's technologies. Instead it now finds itself in a period of 1 year in 2022 when oil revenues surged with prices jumping from the war, and then a steady slump in all the inputs of development- supply of labor, capital and technology declining rapidly after 2023 as the costs of the Ukraine invasion are absorbed into the economy. As this report points out it is the social contract that similar to China's social contract of growth and improvement in standards of living that led to people having a large measure of confidence in the government. It was not fully grasped but it was the access to American and European Union plus Japanese technology, manufacturing, capital and markets that made this possible. With this absent the situation changes to put Russia, and China to a lesser extent as long as it trades with the west, on a different trajectory.  ...

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Elections are won on messages that can be put in one line. FDR's in 1932 he stated clearly and applies to Biden in 2024- it has Abraham Lincoln's message from his writings. FDR said in 1932 "Give me your help not to win votes alone, but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people." America in 2024 during the pandemic resembles America in 1932 during the Depression with widening gaps between the upper and lower classes and in opportunity for better life. Philip Bump in his Analysis in the Washington Post points out that the 2024 US election remains a referendum on the former president Trump. This is because as is already evident the voters have made up their minds, on Biden's side people that have decided they will not vote for Trump, and on Trump's side people who will vote for Trump. Biden has a stable vote when the election is referendum on Trump. Crime has come down so that crime is not so much of an issue. Immigration is also coming down and the Lankford- Biden immigration legislation did not pass to close the border as it was seen not attractive for the reelection bid on basis of immigration fears from the former president. Biden has take steps to close the border using executive action in the absence of Congress stalling on advice of the former president. The other issue is abortion and the selection of J.D. Vance for VP creates more fears about abortion bans for suburban women in all 51 states. Climate Change action is another issue and if stalled for 4 years it would cost the US upward of 1 trillion dollars to make up for action not taken till 2028. Donilon has said elections are fought on issues that can be put in one line for focus and concentration. For Democrats it is democracy in the words of FDR in his 1932 address: "Give me your help not to win votes alone but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people." It is good to reflect and know that this is what president Abraham Lincoln would also have said knowing Lincoln's views from his writings on the this aspect of freedom in the Civil War in fighting the plantation economies of the Southern states. ...

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The first of many coastal wind turbine energy projects on America's coastline produces energy. The Vineyards Wind project in New Bedford harbour in Massachusetts sends 5MW of energy to the New England grid this week. The Operator says 5 850 feet tall turbines will be operational early this year. In all 62 turbines will generate wind energy, enough to power 400,000 homes. The White House's and president Biden's target is for 30 gigawatts of wind energy to power 10 million homes by 2030. Understand how Danish companies are leading the effort which is also why Danish companies were invited to India for its nascent wind energy industry. Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners is the developer with Avangrid of Spain. South Forks Wind is a smaller 12 turbine project off the New York coastline which s being developed by Orsted of Denmark. This Guardian report says some of the opposition to these projects in other parts of the country are coming from fossil fuel companies that seek to prolong the use of fossil fuels in the face of warnings of climate change by scientists and other leaders in government and industry. ...

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The most striking aspect about Pew Research on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion practices and DEI in companies in Nov 2024 compared to early 2023 is the shift in sentiment about how much it hurts White Men. 36% of Americans now think it hurts White Men compared to 14% a shift of 22%. Among Republicans also there is a striking shift of 10% in just over a year. Asians no longer see it improving their situation. It comes also at a time when White Men are going through an unprecedented drop in college enrollment compared to women after financial crises and surging college costs, the kind of trend that is seen as unhealthy for the Nation.  Overall the shift shows says PEW Research that workers are more likely to believe that focussing on DEI is a bad thing and too much attention is going into doing this at companies. Reports in WSJ on Jan 10, 2025 say CEO's are making a shift away from DEI in 2025 consistent with the change in sentiment nationally.  ...

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Republican Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Mitch McConnell no's and 50-50 US Senate vote, a tie on Hegseth nomination. Only a last minute change of heart by Senator Tillis gets the 50-50 tie that was broken by VP Vance's vote to get the Hegseth nomination through. Armed Services chairman Wicker in questioning in the Senate supported Hegseth as he faced tough questioning from Democrats Duckworth, Slotkin and Peters.  Wicker cited Hegseth's service in two wars in combat as a Major in Iraq and Afghanistan and the way many who had fought in these wars had struggled and overcome difficulties, the need for second chances in some situations. Other Republican senators said the position was held by others who did not have experience running large organizations. Panetta was a lawyer and Gates an academic who had CIA positions before appointment to Secretary of Defense. Perry had experience running defense supplier companies. Chuck Hagel served in combat in the Vietnam war and started his own company Vanguard Cellular and was a talk show host.   ...

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European leaders knowing Putin and Russia were not ready for a ceasefire opted for a strategy to get Ukraine to offer an unconditional ceasefire to see if there was any change. Trump who had earlier called for an unconditional ceasefire by both sides, initially felt Ukraine was not moving ahead to support a deal. During May 2025 the EU leaders following Merz forming a coalition government in Germany joined together (Starmer, Macron and Merz) to make one more effort. Trump offered to call Putin. Yet this has not worked, except that now Trump is coming around to the view of the EU leaders that Russia is not joining the peace initiative as it sees that Russia is winning the war. Meantime two new developments took place. Germany's coalition government under Merz passed legislation so that it could build the German defense forces. Merz openly talks about making the Budeswehr the best defense force in Europe in contrast to Scholz who had resisted German involvement. Trump says it is not his war and it would not have happened under his presidency. ...