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Saudi Arabia's strategic moves at the OPE pricing meeting in Nov. 2014. Saudis push for keeping the production levels as they are, not making any cuts. Analysts say the Saudis are aware other OPEC countries and other producers outside OPEC such as Russia, are not likely to make cuts in production as they face severe budget constraints- especially Venezuela, Iran, Russia. In this situation they have decided to take a wait and see approach to see where prices are headed in coming months. A price of $60 for Brent crude is likely to lead to cuts, according to some analysts.

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The Petrocaribe program has cost Venzuela about $22.1 billion, according to one estimate from the University of Texas, Austin. Under the program participating countries would pay a heavily subisidized price, and received long term loans for the cost at rates of as low as 1%. Petrocaribe countries, including Jamaica, get about 100,000 barrels a day from Venezuela. Oil at $61 a barrel covers only half of Venezuela's budget, and the government has announced cuts in spending of 20%. The IMF estimates that in 2013 such oil shipments declined by 15%, and in 2014 the shipments have declined another 20%.

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BT Group PLC acquired mobile company EE from Deutsche Telekom of Germany and Orange SA of France for 12.5 billion pounds in cash and stock. EE is the UK's largest mobile company and BT Group the largest fixed line telecom company. With this acquisition BT Group can now bundle fixed line, mobile lines, and television services, to increase subscriber revenue. Deutsche Telekom with a 12% stake is now the largest shareholder in BT Group. Orange will have a 4% stake. The acquisition provides BT Group with a faster 4G network and 30 million EE customers, 24.5 million direct mobile and 834,000 broadband.

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The U.S. Fed FOMC's decision to continue paring bond purchases by $10 billion monthly. Fed chairman Bernanke said in 2011 responding to criticism from other countries -"it is upto emerging markets to find the appropriate tools to balance their own growth." The Fed Open Market Committee voted 10-0 to continue tapering bond purchases, by reducing it to $65 billion a month from $75 billion a month. The Fed is forecasting growth for 2014 of 3% in 2014 and over 3% in 2015 can be made without sparking inflation. 2013 growth estimated by the Commerce Dept is 2.7%.

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Blackberry's new smartphones fail to compete with phones from Samsung, Apple and other competitors. Under CEO Chen Blackberry sales decline further with a net loss of $423 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. Revenue decline was 64% to $976 million for the 4th quarter 2013. The cash position declined to $2.7 billion from $3.2 billion the prior quarter. In a remarkable reversal older Blackberry phones outsold new Blackberry 10 smartphones launched in 2013. Older Blackberry 7 models sales were 2.3 million compared to 1.1 million for the newer Blackberry 10 models, a situation unheard of in the smartphone industry.

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Closing the plant at Genk in Belgium cost Ford an estimated $750 million and years of difficulty with workers and the community. The plant employs 4300 workers and the cost comes to about $190,000 per worker. Many auto plants in Europe are operating at about 60% of capacity in 2013, and about 7-8 million units of car and light truck capacity remains idle, by some estimates. Ford was compelled to take this action because of billions of dollars of losses for Ford Europe as sales declined because of the eurozone financial crisis and austerity measures.

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Bill De Blasio wins the Mayoral election in New York in 2013 by a 49% margin. Only Mayor Ed Koch exceeded this with a 68% margin in 1985. Issues in this campaign were police stop and frisk searches, income inequality that De Blasio said created a tale of two cities, lack of affordable housing, leaving large numbers of people behind. Republican issues of education, crime and quality of life did not play a part in this election. The election was a kind of referendum on policies of two decades that have increased the income disparities in this traditionally Democratic city.

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Visa Inc., MasterCard Inc. and some large banks agreed to a $6 billion settlement for a lawsuit that alleges price fixing. It provides an additional $1.2 billion fee relief for retailers. Visa will pay 67% of the settlement, MasterCard 12%, and the large banks 21%. Merchants pay about $25 billion each year to card issuing banks in interchange fees charged for each credit card transaction. Large retailers filed the lawsuits in 2005, including Kroger, Safeway, Walgreen. Other merchants including doctors and small business owners joined the lawsuits, which were later combined in the U.S. District Court of Brooklyn.

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Venezuela has heavy oil in the Orinoco basin, and 7 blocks there are up for bidding which could generate 1 million barrels aday of synthetic oil. The terms are that Petroleos de Venezuela would get 60% share ad operational control but not put up any money. In addition the government will take a 33% royalty and a windfall tax. State owned oil companies in China, India and Russia, Perobras, BP, Chevron, Shell and Total have expressed interest. Political risk is taken into account but some countries are on friendly terms with Venezuela. Main concern is the recession and fall in price of oil.

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Equity markets in Europe and the U.S. are likely to see some of the 62 trillion yen, or $630 billion, which the Bank of Japan plans to add to holdings of banks and households in two years 2013-2014. A senior advisor to Deutsche Bank, Thomas Mayer, says equities of Germany, France and Britain are likey to see interest from Japanese investors, as are bonds and equities of the U.S. Japanese companies such as Toyota and consumer product companies such as Sony and Panasonic will now be able to better compete on price against their S. Korean, American and European competitors.

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About a 60% turnout of voters in Kashmir with 80% of the state's districts reporting, is higher than in the last election which had a turnout of 44% in 2002. This shows declining support for militants in Kashmir. The two parties with the largest seats in the 87 member legislative assembly are the National Conference Party with 28 seats, and the People's Democratic Party with 18 seats projected to reach 21 seats. The National Conference Party is expected to form a coalition with the Congresss Party which heads the ruling coalition for the federal government in New Delhi.

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Increased bank lending in China with lending going up by 20% in January 2009, suggest that state owned banks are following instructions to increase lending from the government. As bank and household balance sheets are healthy and domestic debt has fallen relative to GDP in recent years, the bank lending situation appears healthy. Medium and long term lending has increased strongly. The central bank plans to finance only 30% of the stimulus spending of $585 billion infrastructure package, banks will provide much of the rest. According to ING analyst Condon, transport infrastructure spending was up 61% over ayear earlier in December.

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Private equity firms like Apollo and Blackstone and others may find themselves in trouble further down the road in the leveraged loan market where these private equity firms took on leveraged funding to purchase loans from banks at 85 cents on the dollar when they are down now to 65 cents on the dollar. This funding was obtained for 18 months so no immediate margin calls but if there is a long recession then further down the road both the private equity firms and the banks who thought they had unloaded these loans may have trouble with this.

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Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin's role along with CEO Prince at Citigroup in relaxing strict oversight and risk controls to pursue riskier investments and increase profits at Citigroup. This led to the $65 billion in losses on mortgage related investments that caused its share price to collapse to $3.77 by November 21, 2008. About 75,000 jobs are already lost from 375,000 worldwide and Citi is in talks with government officials in emergency meetings this weekend before the markets open on Monday November 24, 2008. This time Citi is in crisis mode and a lot can happen in the coming days.

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Plastic use has increased with the tripling in parcels delivered in the last 4 years, up to 64 billion parcels. As much as 93% of the growth in trash in major cities in China in 2018 comes from this one source- an astonishing 850,000 tons of plastic waste in 2018 from the e-commerce and delivery sector. Food deliveries and Alibaba online deliveries add to plastic waste. The government is cracking down with new rules from the Environment Ministry. By the end of 2020 non biodegradable plastic bags will largely be banned from cities, and single use straws banned in restaurants across China.  This ban will extend to all cities and towns by 2022 and to markets selling fresh produce by 2025. Restaurants will have to cut use of plastic by 30% by 2025. In 2018 China stopped taking imports of plastic waste. China is beginning to realize the costs of letting single use plastic grow. The last regulation was in 2008 banning the giving of free plastic bags at retail markets and banning production of super thin bags. It has taken the sudden jump in use in package delivery and in food delivery for the government to finally act. Experts say China uses too much plastic. India has taken strong action against single use plastic in 2019 under the leadership of prime minister Modi. ...

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Greg Ip says inflation will be moderate about 2.3% instead of 2% as tariffs will probably be use as a negotiating method and tariffs at 20% with 60% tariff as a negotiating tactic by Trump.  Greg Ip says as important than inflation and GDP are the workers displaced and with loss of income through surge in imports and loss of manufacturing in the US. 

Robert Lighthizer, who was trade ambassador in Trump’s first term and is likely to return to manage trade says-

“Globalization produces disruption, dislocation, and destruction. Conservatives by contrast seek to defend traditional values and institutions, preserve the social fabric, and ensure the conditions for families and communities to flourish.”

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Shigeu Ishiba is elected the new LDP leader and prime minister of Japan. He is 67 years and was defense minister. This means the replacement for Fumio Kishida is not a younger leader with new ideas as was said to be the intent behind Kishida stepping aside. Ishiba is a son of a former cabinet minister, something too common in Japan. He was a critic of Abe and Kishida, and is depended upon to clean up corruption in the LDP. Other than that this is still an LDP that has no new solutions, the same old ideas for improving the economic future of the Japanese people, not the kind of fresh thinking that Harris is bringing to the US and which some expected would come from Kishida stepping aside for a younger person with new ideas.

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German elections results in graphics 2025, shown in Deutsche Welle DW.  As in US in Germany 2024 more women and university educated in SPD, Greens more basic education and men in AfD, CDU. People over 60 voted for SPD and CDU, 20-23% voted for AfD in 25-50 year age groups.

The deindustrialization of the US and Germany and France has led to this situation, as jobs were outshored to China under Merkel and Schroeder. Fewer opportunities for people with a basic education and the indifference of governments to these disadvantaged groups under Merkel and Schroeder. The other change is that in Germany in the Eastern parts of the country around Dresden, Jena, Leipzig in Eastern Germany the AfD is now dominant, except for Berlin where the Left and SPD are dominant.

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Japan's Sanseito anti-immigration party gets 7 seats, enough to deprive the ruling LDP-Komeito alliance of its parliamentary majority. Prime Minister Ishida of the LDP party may not last more than a few months. The LDP seems to have lost its way like the Democrats in the US. A recent article in NYT says LDP wanted to bring in 60 million tourists to Japan each year to boost the economy. Yet Japanese people in cities have a hard time handling 40 million tourists in 2024, with reports of disturbance of the once quiet life in city neigborhoods and failure to adopt the culture and language of Japan. Reports of migrant/tourist or immigrant crime get much press coverage. Japan has 124 million people and birthrate of 1.26 below the birthrate of 2.1 needed to stabilize population. Business asks for new immigrants to fill unfilled positions. The public has different ideas and the migration is causing disturbance in traditional way of life in Japan. Similar to what is seen in the US and Germany in more striking ways. The nationalist parties including Sanseito say even if the population falls to 100 million this is more than the population of 90 million in Germany, and is enough to sustain its economy. Use of robotics and AI is not talked about as much but offers Japan, US and Germany, a way to make up for the loss of foreign labor. In essence both American, British, Spanish, German, French, Italian, Austrian, Dutch, Danish and Japanese society share a yearning for traditional ways of life that are being ruffled and disturbed by the migration, immigration, or over tourism affecting their countries. Politicians need to pay attention to people affected and not live isolated in their own neighborhoods from the people in other less sheltered communities and neighborhoods across their countries. ...

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Brazil's beer market for long dominated by AmBev will now have a new competitor. Japan's Kirin Holdings acquired Brazilian beermaker Schincariol for $2.57 billion. AmBev has 69% of the Brazilian market and Schincariol has 11%. Schincariol is strong in Brazil's northeast. The Brazilian beer market is growing at 11% a year compared to only 1-2% a year in the U.S.

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Weight loss drug Alli available over the counter at $60 for 90 pills has successful introduction by Glaxo. About 2 million starter packages sold in 4 months. It works by blocking fat absorption of fat in the intestine and so requires persons using it to stay on a fat restricted diet or face side effects of sometimes uncontrollable diarrhea or flatulence.

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Britain's general election results show Conservatives losing their majority in parliament. Conservatives gained 318 seats, but only because voters in Scotland voted tactically for Conservatives to avoid Scottish independence, leading to 19 fewer seats for the Scottish National Party. Labor gained seats in England and Wales. The Liberals added 3 seats. The final tally was Conservatives 318 seats, Labor 260 seats, Scottish National Party 35 seat, Liberals 12 seats Democratic Unionist Party 10 seats, others 13 seats, UKIP 0 seats. Conservatives can form a government only by joining with the Unionist Party based in Northern Ireland to have the 226 seats for forming a government. This election creates questions about the whole idea of Brexit, as a majority of the voters supported Labor, SNP and Liberal Democrats, with a total of 50.4% of the vote, according to BBC, for parties that did not see Brexit as the priority for Britain. Labor 40.0%, SNP 3.0% and LD 7.4%. By contrast UKIP, Conservatives and DU, pro-Brexit together had total of 46.1% of the vote. Any Conservative government is likely to be weak, and according to this report in WSJ may lead to new elections by the end of the year. The high turnout of 69% shows voters wanted to send a message about their doubts on Brexit. A Labor government cannot be ruled out. ...

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Mr. Rodrigo Maia, the 49 year old son of the former Mayor of Rio De Janeiro, Cesar Maia, is uniting Congressmen from all parties in Brazil's parliament to get things done and restore lost confidence, such as the recently passed pension reform. Brazil's pension system sucks up most of the money in the budget with overly generous benefits, leaving little to pay for essential public services such as sanitation and transportation. Shockingly sanitation has suffered as only 50% of the sewage is treated in Brazil.  Polls show confidence in parliament after corruption scandals and lack of work to help the people of Brazil with essential public services has fallen to an abysmal low of 7%. Only 50% of Brazil's sanitation is treated and the rest flows as untreated sewage and rubbish into the rivers. To bring some sanity to pensions the Brazilian parliament, with the organizing skills of Mr. Maia to bring parties together around the reform, has cut $240 billion over 10 years from pensions and introduced 65 years for men and 62 years for women as minimum retirement age.  Brazil has 33 parties and Mr. Maia's is with the centre right DEM party. How did this happen. This WSJ story says Rodrigo Maia, 49 years, was born in Santiago, Chile in 1970 during the days of Brazilian military dictatorship. His father was in exile in Chile. The election of a  far right figure Jair Bolsonaro who supported the military dictatorships record as president in the recent election was a warning sign for the different parties in Brazil on the centre right and the centre left that corruption scandals and a do-little spirit was wiping out their influence and destoroying their credibility with ordinary Brazilians. The pension cut reform was their response to gain some of the lost goodwill from the Brazilian people. In the past Brazil's members of the Chambers of Deputies were people of power and influence who held positions for long periods and passed on these positions to people in their families or in their close circle. The elections and democratic governments following years of dictatorship brought in a new class from centre right and centre left that mismanaged public finances and excluded new ideas. The Car Wash scandal and scandals at the state petroleum company under Da Silva's Workers Party led to loss of confidence not only in the centre left party government of Da Silva and the Workers Party, but also in a do-little parliament. The large state spending from the government was possible during the commodities boom from China with Brazilian iron ore and other products getting high prices. WIth the collapse of the commodities boom and lower prices the entire system of state spending has unraveled revealing how much generous pension system is damaging the financing of  basic public services.  Corruption is prevalent in many countries in Asia including India but nowhere has the spending on essential public services such as sanitation suffered as in Brazil. And nowhere was parliament and the government able to get away with staging Olympics, World Cup and building many stadiums, handing out generous benefits to gain public support as in Brazil when basic sanitation and health services were neglected in a shocking way. The health system was weakened to a great extent when it lacked the resources to tackle an outbreak of yellow fever in 2018 as it moved south from the Amazon region towards Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Protests against the lack of investment in public services such as transportation and bus systems resulted in the public protests in big cities that led to the rise of Jair Bolsonaro in an effort to bring new administration to tackle the problem of financing for infrastructure, public services, health and education.    ...

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Van Dam says its not that great being a worker in the U.S. because it is hard for the unemployed resulting from competing with workers in other countries with lower wages, and for those who are unemployed harder because worker collective bargaining is weakened over 3 decades. He cites a 296 page OECD report showing very little government support for unemployed and at risk American workers. It says this has contributed to higher income inequality and larger share of lower income people than almost any other advanced a nation. Only Spain and Greece are shown as having more households earning less than half the median income- showing large numbers of people are poor or close to being poor. In the U.S. an average of 1 in 5 lose their jobs each year, and 23% of workers 15 to 64 are in their job less than a year in 2016. The job churn hurts workers because of firing and layoffs being frequent, more than is healthy for a economy. The U.S. and Mexico are the only two countries not requiring advance notice before firings. And fewer than half of workers find a job within a year in the U.S. Two in three families with a displaced worker fall in poverty for some time. Unemployed workers with typically 26 weeks support get less support than any other country in the study. Only 12% of workers in U.S. are covered by collective bargaining. ...

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Stress test performed by the consulting firms of Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger used data as of Dec 31, 2011, and a scenario of a 6.5% decline in GDP and a 26.4% fall in housing prices by 2014. An international panel of experts from the Bank of Spain, the Spanish government, the ECB, the IMF, the European Banking Authority and the EC was formed to oversee the consultancies report. A separate more detailed audit of 14 individual banks will be made by Deloitte Touche, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, Ernst & Young, and KPMG International with results by the end of July. The four banks that need capital injections are Bankia, CatalunyaCaixa, NovaCaixaGalicia and Banco de Valencia. The consultancies estimate was for 51-62 billion euros needed according to Oliver Wyman, and 51.8 billion euros needed according to Roland Berger, for recapitalization of Spanish banks by 2014. The issue now is about any remaining questions about additional losses, and whether rescue funds from the EU fund the EFSF should go directly to the banks as favored by the IMF and the government of Spain. This is because of the stress on yields of Spain's 10 year bonds with rescue money going to the Spanish government at the insistence of German chancellor Merkel....