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The crackdown on the opposition after a failed coup in 2016 has intensified, and Turkey is now seen as a one party state under president Erdogan and the AKP Party that has ruled Turkey for the last decade. The crackdown was made by the AKP Party because of the coup, yet DW points out that the crackdown itself was of an anti-democracy type by acting against the opposition parties in parliament. As a result of emergency powers assumed by president Erdogan, the appointment of judges by the ruling party, and the shutdown of media opposed to the president, the mass firing of teachers and officials not seen as allied to the ruling party,  DW.com say democracy has suffered in Turkey in 2016-2017. DW.com says the previous republic setup by Kemal Ataturk, modern Turkey's founder,  was an imperfect democracy, the new one with the new constitution setup by Erdogan and the AKP is not free and not democratic.

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Though the smoking rate has dropped in the U.S. to 15% of adults smoking, the figures conceal a socioeconomic fact. Many of the smokers are now concentrated in rural areas and among less educated people. The rate for people with only a high school diploma is about 40%, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The result is that people in rural areas are diagnosed of lung cancer at rates 18-20 % higher than city residents. These are two worlds says one rural resident who has grandchildren in D.C. suburbs. She is fighting the battle against smoking yet sees this is less of an issue for city residents. Her experience is that the family, health, work and other problems drive people to smoke more in rural areas of Virginia, including her small town of Martinsville, Virgina. An added problem is the marketing by tobacco companies to these areas.

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U.S. president Trump's executive order reversing parts of the Clean Power Plan of president Obama may extend the life of older coal powered plants, but overall it is unlikely to change the shift away from coal for the U.S. utility industry. It will do little to reverse the market forces that are leading to a shift to natural gas for the utility industry with the increasing availability of natural gas. In this WSJ report Cassandra Sweet cites Duke Energy Corp. CEO Lynn Good, who says natural gas for Duke will be the leading fuel followed by coal by 2026, and natural gas now makes up 28% of its mix with coal at 34%. He says a $11 billion ten year investment in natural gas and renewable energy will go through regardless of what the Trump administration does because of the economics- the declining price of renewables, the competitive price of natural gas. Companies are loath to base their long term plans on changes in administration as they see the economics dictated by advances in technology, and the general sense that cleaner energy is here to stay for the long run. Already in the U.S. 34% of total power supplies are from natural gas and 30% from coal for 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Department. This may change slightly as coal is used where it is economical and makes sense without the carbon rules, yet the long term trend is clearly towards natural gas. ...

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This article in the Economist following the state election in Berlin, says it shows Merkel and the CDU as still the only likely option to form a new coalition in the 2017 federal elections. Even though six parties emerged in the Berlin election- the left parties SPD and Die Linke, the Greens,CDU, AfD, FDP- the situation is so fragmented that the CDU still remains the leading party nationwide. The Economist points out that a Greens and left parties coalition as in Thuringia is not an option at the federal level, because most Germans are not in favor of a SPD, left party Die Linke, and Greens coalition at the national level. The opposition from the CSU inside the CDU-CSU parties to Merkel's refugee policy,  with Seehofer calling for a numerical limit to refugees, is it says presents the only real challenge to Merkel. Yet Merkel has already tackled that problem, as the new refugee numbers are dropping dramatically. and Merkel has already pointed out that the refugee crisis came when she and her government were caught unprepared. By taking the right steps to assuage voter sentiment as she has deftly done throughout her terms in office, staying close to what voters generally accept as the best way forward, a year from now Merkel and the CDU may as she says be seen as having taken actions that best reflect Germany's interests in the long term. ...

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WSJ's reporters Meichtry, L, Pokharel, and Soon look at the extraordinary rise of Gautam Adani through his efforts to develop reclaimed land at Mundra port in the state of Gujarat. Adani who started with a small family owned plastics maker in Ahmedabad developed Mundra port around 2001 with the help of the Modi administration. Modi saw the electricity shortages in Gujarat as an opportunity to tackle India's chronic electricity shortages. Adani's early development of a deep water port at Mundra offered both Modi and Adani the opportunity to tackle the electricity shortages by bringing coal in large ships to Mundra in the way that China was already doing by 2005 in its own efforts at industrialization. So deeply immersed was India under the Congress Raj of licenses and closed economy that India's established business failed to see what China was doing to break into the ranks of industrialized nations. India's first prime minister Nehru had build a command economy where not much happened without government licenses and approval often riddled unwittingly with corruption. Modi needed someone outside the established companies operating under the Congress Raj command economy and with a vision of an India with abundant electricity to take the risks Chinese companies were taking to build an entirely new economy. By 2005 Guangzhou was importing coal with large ships from Indonesia and Australia. State owned companies moved slowly and would take years to develop the port capacity. Using China's example Modi pushed ahead with Adani on a rapid time delivery making Mundra a Special economic Zone and helping to connect Indian Railways to the port of Mundra for coal deliveries. Adani Enterprises built the thermal power plants near Mundra and build electricity transmission lines on a rapid mission mode giving Gujarat abundant electricity supplies and giving Gujarat state in northwestern India a great leap forward in the way China was already doing right in front of everyone's eyes by 2005 with world class ports built at Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzen, Hong Kong and logistics connections set with the help of Maersk.  Maersk is now doing the same for modern logistics in India in collaboration with the Modi administration.  Modi and the younger generation of aspirational youth in India see a New India that can break into the ranks of the largest industrialized nations with world class infrastructure in the way China has done, and use new technologies with innovation that will speed up the process in a way that the world has never seen. A quick look at Mundra Port in Wikipedia shows the timeline, It starts in 1998 when Adani Port Ltd was setup and Mundra port work began, 2002 the port integrated with Indian Railways, 2003 when it was made a Special Economic Zone by the Modi government in Gujarat, 2007 when IPO of 40 million shares at price band of around Rs 400 was done.  The Biden administration and the Trump administration support India's efforts to build a new modern economy with a rapid shift to renewable energy. As India is building the ports and logistics with the help of Maersk and other companies in the European Union, president Biden is working with prime minister Modi to build a new supply chain that removes the overconcentration of manufacturing and supply chain logistics in China. This means new ports with the latest technologies in India to handle shipment to the US and the EU. Jake Sullivan set out the goals for president Biden to accomplish this task in meetings with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval this week on iCERT. President Biden and Republicans, Germany and the EU, see India as a critical part of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies, and the new supply chain. For the Adani Group the IPO pause offers an opportunity to do what Nirmala Sitharman has done in the Indian Budget this week- build a stable growth path ahead for the long term in line with India's Amrit Kal the next 25 years to centenary of freedom in 2047. Nirmala Sitharaman set a goal of rapid capital spending and investment increasing capital spending in 2023 by 33% in 2023 over 2022, yet maintaining a stable fiscal path by keeping the deficit below 6%. ...

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This WSJ report sees Angela Merkel as leaving an international legacy of cooling relations with America. It says Angela Merkel turned down US president Biden's first call after his election as president because she was going to her cottage in the country that weekend. This report says after 4 terms Merkel is to be seen as dramatically increasing her country's economic dependence on China, pushing through a energy deal with Russia, joining France in challenging US political influence in Europe, rejecting American requests on economic policy and setting Berlin's openness to Chinese technology.  What happened with her youthful fascination with America during the years growing up in East Germany asks the WSJ? It also says of the Bush years of unregulated banking leading to the 2009 US banking crisis- that left her with a distaste for Anglo-Saxon banks and Wall Street lobbying. Of the Obama years it says Merkel found Obama unsteady, verbose, and sometimes meddling, with the spying on Merkel's phone also giving her a sense of disrespect to Germany. The result was that Merkel increasingly was fascinated by the Chinese experiment in development, visiting China 13 times while in office, studying Chinese history, politics and economics.  Merkel over this period met with the Dalai Lama and had questions about one party rule by CCP. Yet she became more and more resigned to Germany as a country of 80 million, not the EU and Europe as one group united in vision with a population of about 500 million, larger than America that could be a force for good in its own right. She said "we can be as hardworking, awesome,  as super as we like, but as a country of 80 million we won't be able to prevail if China ever decided that it no longer wants to have good relations with Germany." She ignored the experience of Sweden and Scandinavian countries in their relations with China. In saying this she ignored the potential of India and its neighbors in south-east Asia that make up about 2 billion people or about twice the population of China. She also seemed unaware of the role Woodrow Wilson, FDR, have played in realizing the democratic vision of the German revolutionaries of 1948 who failed to bring democratic government to Germany. And she had forgotten of the role Harry Truman, the commoner president of the US, who played a major role in establishing German democracy and its dignity during the Berlin Crisis after the blockade of Berlin by the Soviets in 1948. The mediocrity of presidents from Bush to Trump has bothered Merkel. Yet it may very well be that there is nothing mediocre about Mr. Biden and America's vision about its future as it grapples with the social and economic problems of the last three decades, as it has done before in its history and come through. ...

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Becky Branford of BBC News gives five reasons for Emmanual Macron's win in the French presidential election. She cites experts who say Macron was lucky, had a canny ability to see the timing was right for a new party to be formed so that socialist voters had an alternative. His luck comes from the failure of Republican centre right party Fillon to mobilize right wing voters following reports that he had hired his wife and children for government jobs. Yet this is not a complete explanation. Macron had the intuition that something was happening in French politics and the courage to act on it early, the youthful energy to take up the challenge of a mass movement. The events were the declining popularity of the socialists, and the fragmentation of the left wing, the uncertain prospects of the Sarkozy effort at comeback because of his image from years in power, and the need to counter growing far right support for the National Front- to do this by offering an alternative in the centre. From that one courageous decision things from that point fell into place as the Republican party also failed to attract strong public support.  A mere 24% of the vote enabled Macron to enter the second round. Macron's grasp of the economy and conviction helped him win the final debate with Le Pen decisively. His sense of his own mission to revive the idea of Europe sustained him against attacks from the far right, including the late cyber attack on his emails in the last 24 hours.  Macron could still have prevailed over Le Pen without the strong campaign for staying on a positive message and confidence in his ability to turn France's economy around. Yet without a margin of victory of this size in the face of abstaining voters from the far left, Macron as president would not have looked the same. The next step is parliamentary elections in June, and governing France with a turnaround plan requires winning a majority in parliament of sufficient magnitude that he can implement a program which makes the French economy as competitive as Germany's. People forget that Germany was considered a economy with high unemployment and not as competitive under the Schroeder administrations that preceded Angela Merkel, this includes the French with the layers of pessimism. Emmanuel Macron deserves credit not for winning, but winning with the idea of Europe, and it has done as much for him from the French people who have put their faith in Europe when the chips are down, as he has done for Europe already. How this helps put a turnaround in the economy in place is that he will have the energy and enthusiasm of Germany behind him, as well as the energy of French industry and young people to do what Germany accomplished in the 2000-2010 period to emerge from years of high unemployment with a strong economy. ...

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  As policies moderate, and policy action delivers results such as stopping the war on Ukraine, rebuilding the US Navy, and trade that brings back jobs, fentanyl deaths near zero with CMC (Canada, Mexico and China) forced to stop fentanyl flows, the small slippage in DJT support from federal workers in Republican districts and losses to business from wide deportation could reverse. DJT's first 100 days with strong action from the start, given the 2 year window before a possible Democrat takeover of the House and letting out the frustration on border policies of the Biden administration, are taking the Nation by surprise. Immigration policy on illegal migration is supported generally in the US except where it reduces customers to small businesses for fear of deportation such as occupational therapy.  Government employees who voted for DJT are uncertain about their jobs and are a group that is taken aback by the speed and action on cutting the government federal bureaucracy of 2 million workers. Many federal workers are spread out in the 51 states and many are in Republican or Republican leaning districts. With some slippage DJT approval is now at 47%, and slightly higher disapproval at 51%. As a result these two groups are moving away from supporting DJT in the first 100 days. Some who still support him outside these two groups are expressing disapproval of action coming this early and forcefully, yet support the overall policy agenda on immigration and cutting spending. There is also a small yet vocal group that supported RFK Jr. and this group remains energized by his promise to take action on health. Others who wanted strong action on immigration to reverse errors of Biden policies for illegal migrant entry and dispersal across America remain committed to DJT policy.  ...

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The shift to digital from newsprint for newspapers in the U.S. is taking place in gradual steps. Print ad still account for 86% of $24 billion in revenues for the newspapers in 2011, according to the Newspaper Association of America. About 45 million buyers for the 1400 newspapers in the U.S. put their hands on a printed paper edition each day. At the same time print revenues have fallen by half since 2007. So as not to overly disturb the existing customer base for newsprint papers, and wary of the still developing revenue model with lower revenues of the digital newspapers, Advance Publications is making a gradual shift to three days a week from daily papers. In 2009 it moved the An Arbor News to two print editions weekly and in early 2012 it shifted 7 other daily papers in local communities of Michigan to 3 times a week print editions. The pulbback has shifted readers to the paper's websites. Local communties depend on papers in a crisis such as the one that hit Louisiana with Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Circulation for the Times-Picayune in New Orleans has declined by half to 133, 557 daily in March 2012. Yet the digital edition has a distinct advantage because journalists continued to provide reports online when the hurricane knocked out printing presses. The advantage continues with the lighter iPad tablet devices which will make the papers accessible in a convenient hand holdable way. The problem is with the revenue stream which has not been established in a convincing way for digital as yet so that it would support hiring journalists. As it shifts to online reporting on its site Nola.com, Advance publications will shift to 3 print editions per week in New Orleans. And this will mean laying off 50 journalists, and covering a region with 1.3 million people with the remaining 100 journalists. Advance Publications will do the same for its papers in Birmingham and Huntsville in Alabama. For journalists like Caroline Little, a former publisher of the Washingtonpost.com, the scary thing is that fewer and fewer journalists are supported by the online model, and yet the shift to digital is unmistakable. For reaching younger readers not accustomed to holding a print newspaper, it is also the only way forward. ...

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Friedman's ambivalent position on the situation in Syria on one hand in a recent op-ed on Israel pointing to the need for the U.S. to concentrate its attention on Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, instead of Bethlehem, Israel; and on the other speaking of the situation being out of control in Syria with the proxy war between Sunni and Shiite. U.S. public opinion and media opinion has consistently supported the struggle for freedom in the Middle East against dictatorial military regimes, yet the Obama adminstration has either followed the lead of France and Britain or acted in a vacillating manner.

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The practices of Bain Capital under Mitt Romney, as it merged management consulting with private equity to take stake in companies that it would be asked to turnaround. The main focus for this type of investing was to harvest as much capital out of the acquired company as early as possible, leading to management decisions that were driven by this overriding aspect. This meant large layoffs to reduce costs, loading the company with debt which in many cases led the company to bankruptcy yet benefitting the investors. The practices were adverse to the accumulation of human talent.

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Lahart points out that it will take time for Electrolux to put the the two businesses together following its acquisition of the GE appliance business. The $3.3 billion Electrolux paid is much less than estimates made earlier, showing the still depressed state of the housing market. Electrolux shares went up 5.1% in Stockholm. The potential of sales in the U.S. market will help as Europe recovers from a sales downturn. Economies of scale will help Electrolux, yet its main competitor Whirlpool has made investments to compete effectively in a larger market with growing sales in emerging markets and U.S.

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Germany's chancellor Merkel sees Britain as necessary for Europe and the European spirit. This even though she has differences with British prime minister Cameron on how to elect the new president of the EU following EU parliamentary elections in May 2014. She told the German parliament in June 2014- "Britain is really no cozy partner. Yet Germany and Britain share values and interests. I consider it grossly negligent, in fact unacceptable, how easily some people say that it is really all the same whether Britain goes along or not, or more: whether Britain remains a member of the European Union or not."

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Sears Holdings spent $1.46 per square foot in 2012 on its stores compared to an average of $9.45 per square foot for Target, Penneys, Walmart, Lowe's and Home Depot, according to this report. Lampert counters this by saying his fund made investments in technology and online retail. Yet Sears stock is up 41% for the year by Oct 2013 largely on the basis that Sears Holdings is worth much more for its parts. Land's End is being put up for sale as well as other pieces of Sears Holdings by Ed Lampert's Hedge Fund ESL Investments.

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Citigroup will keep Nikko Cordial, Japan's third largest brokerage firm, for which it paid 1.6 trillion yen or $17.95 billion in 2008 before the global financial crisis. The hope is that it will be worth a lot more in future years as Japanese households with $15 trillion in assets mostly in cash buy more financial products from Nikko. Today only 10% of Japanese assets are invested in stocks and other similiar financial assets, compared to 30% in the USA. Citigroup is also keeping the retail banking business of Grupo Financiero Banamex in Mexico as part of its overseas expansion strategy.

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 State tax shortfalls in the US were expected as consumer purchases dropped sharply in 2020 from the impact of coronavirus lockdowns. Yet this has not happened as total taxes for all states have remained essentially flat, only down less than 1% in 2020 over 2019. Widespread intervention by the US government helped households, businesses and financial markets, helping avoid the pessimistic projections. Stable employment for the more affluent households with steady jobs working from home brought in stronger tax revenues. The situation improved for most states in the second half of 2020, with roughly half the states taking in more revenue in 2020 than in 2019.  Idaho and Utah which attracted workers from the West Coast, had some of the highest tax revenue increases. The pandemic spared the high income jobs which generate most of the revenue helping to create surpluses in Colorado, Vermont, Georgia, Maine, California, Maryland and Virginia. In California a surge in initial public offerings in 2020 helped total tax revenue increase by 2.5%. Even a state like Illinois had personal tax collections higher in 2020 than 2019. This sets aside some of the fears that the pandemic caused about loss of jobs in state and local governments. With assistance from the Biden administration to state and local governments in the  $1.9 trillion aid package for 2021 this job loss could be restored to aid economic recovery. ...

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Manish Sabharwal writes in the Indian Express that India missed it economic tryst with destiny and economic freedom for its citizens in 1947 and the decades after that. Today with AtmanNirbhar Bharat, he says,  the country is finally making its economic tryst with destiny. It is about self-reliance, yet it is also about opening up to new supply chains set up by allies U.S., France and Japan, South Korea, opening up to trade, investment and technology flows in new and exciting ways. The prime minister's message called for a quantum leap in technology. India was already moving up in GDP terms and set to surpass both Japan and Germany to become the largest after the U.S. and China in GDP. But there was something missing in it for the people. Here he sets out what the huge investment of 10% of GDP and the possible sequel investment to this would mean for people of India, from farmers to workers in different sectors of the economy, including the informal economy. India has fallen behind in per capita GDP and this is now the focus of the people and the government, federal government and the states, to build an economy that provides the best opportunities and growth for all its people. True Gandhian Swa-raj in the best sense of the term.   ...

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The U.S. unemployment rate shows a surprising improvement. The unemployment rate drops to 13.3% in May dropping from 14.7% in April. Employers added 2.5 million jobs, as states reopen in phases. Hiring was seen in the hospitality, construction and education sectors. This is a piece of good news suggesting that the pandemic is likely to follow a pattern of rapid decline in economic activity and rapid gain in economic activity in 2020, till it gets back to close to the original level in January before the pandemic hit the U.S.  One of the reasons for the rapid gains after steep loss in economic activity is that the errors in preparing for the pandemic led to a loss of crucial weeks before responses were made giving the very contagious virus time to spread. Yet once the response was made in mid March it was coordinated - with U.S. and India acting together, and Europe also moving together with the U.S. The economic response was unprecedented in scale with the U.S. putting in close to 1.5 trillion and the European Union and British response also about $1.5 trillion. Jobs were protected in different ways either by loans to business, or payment of wages by the government or from funds for this purpose. After some vigorous debate the reopening also was done rapidly with regions less affected, and others following soon afterwards even taking some risks so that the economy could recover. ...

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Domestic tourist trips up 19% over 2019 in China as China opens up to tourism are leading to only a 1% increase in total tourist spending, as tourists are just plain thrifty. Food inflation that is 10-15% in the US is about a catastrophic 40% in Europe with creeping higher margins of grocery stores. Compare that with China where inflation is less than 1%. WSJ looks at Zibo a city in China that was like hundreds of smaller industrial cities in China until a government publicity campaign got about 4.7 million people to visit it for its barbecue pancakes. The prices were relatively inexpensive with two people eating for $20. Yet this type of tourism is not boosting the Chinese economy when exports are slowing and the construction sector is in poor shape financially. 

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Michael Barnier, 73 years, is considered the French Joe Biden because of his service since entering parliament at the age of 27. He served under president Chirac in the 1990's, was foreign minister, twice European Commissioner in Brussels, and EU's negotiator for Brexit. He tried for the nomination of the Les Republicains to run against Macron for president. Macron chose Barnier because of his negotiating skills which will be needed as no party has a majority and the 126 parliamentary votes of the National Front of Marie Le Pen are needed for the government to be stable. Barnier also share Le Pen's concern about migrants having called for ceasing migrant entry for 4 years and quotas for lawful migrants set by the government and a referendum on migration.

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Japan's Sanseito anti-immigration party gets 7 seats, enough to deprive the ruling LDP-Komeito alliance of its parliamentary majority. Prime Minister Ishida of the LDP party may not last more than a few months. The LDP seems to have lost its way like the Democrats in the US. A recent article in NYT says LDP wanted to bring in 60 million tourists to Japan each year to boost the economy. Yet Japanese people in cities have a hard time handling 40 million tourists in 2024, with reports of disturbance of the once quiet life in city neigborhoods and failure to adopt the culture and language of Japan. Reports of migrant/tourist or immigrant crime get much press coverage. Japan has 124 million people and birthrate of 1.26 below the birthrate of 2.1 needed to stabilize population. Business asks for new immigrants to fill unfilled positions. The public has different ideas and the migration is causing disturbance in traditional way of life in Japan. Similar to what is seen in the US and Germany in more striking ways. The nationalist parties including Sanseito say even if the population falls to 100 million this is more than the population of 90 million in Germany, and is enough to sustain its economy. Use of robotics and AI is not talked about as much but offers Japan, US and Germany, a way to make up for the loss of foreign labor. In essence both American, British, Spanish, German, French, Italian, Austrian, Dutch, Danish and Japanese society share a yearning for traditional ways of life that are being ruffled and disturbed by the migration, immigration, or over tourism affecting their countries. Politicians need to pay attention to people affected and not live isolated in their own neighborhoods from the people in other less sheltered communities and neighborhoods across their countries. ...

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Growth is back in the eurozone. The OECD estimates 2.1% growth in 2017 and 1.9% growth in 2018 for the eurozone countries. Business investment is up significantly- up 5.7% in the first half of 2017. Worldwide business investment in 2016 was at 1.3 trillion euros, up 7.2% from the prior year, according to Eurostat.

New investment for electric vehicles in the auto industry is also up significantly in an industry that provides 10% of all jobs in manufacturing. Yet business investment is only half of what it needs to be- to makeup 5% of GDP- to spur good job creation, says this report in the WSJ. Use of automation is also limiting the number of jobs created. Real wage growth is also lacking.