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The firing of John Bolton as National Security Adviser opens up the possibility of a meeting of Trump with President Rouhani of Iran. There is a need for both sides to begin talks on a nuclear deal that would replace the one Iran signed with president Obama to address issues raised by Mr. Trump and Republicans. Iran and countries that buy oil from Iran such as India, China and Japan have an interest in relief from sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on imports of Iranian oil. The European Union is keen to preserve aspects of the nuclear deal. Relief from sanctions is critical for Iran to develop its economy. The last two decades have seen Iran struggle to develop its economy with the sanctions imposed by  different U.S. administrations.   President Trump expressed flexibility on sanctions saying "we will see what happens. I think Iran has potential. They are incredible people." President Rouhani urged Mr. Trump "to put warmongers aside." Mr. Trump told reporters that he had resisted Mr. Bolton's opinions on issues and realized he had moderate views when compared to someone like Bolton.  Trump told Iran "We are not looking for regime change. We hope we can make a deal and if we can't make a deal thats fine too. But I think they have to make a deal." Helping the U.S. and Iran come to talks is president Macron of France who hopes to setup a meeting at the UN General Assembly which meets next week following his efforts at the G-7 meeting in France last month. In the past when tensions were high in the Straits of Hormuz President Trump refrained from aggravating this by saying actions that are "disproportionate" should not be taken and respected Iranian intentions. The tone of the conversation between the two sides has moderated to the point where both sides realize the need for coming to some compromise. This is in sharp contrast to the period a few months ago with rising tensions in the Straits of Hormuz and the seizure of an Iranian ship. Bolton's opinions were not the only issue for president Trump. He was also seen as the source of leaks including one that said Mike Pence, the Vice President, had opposed Mr. Trump's plan to bring the Taliban to Camp David. Also contributing to the new climate for talks is Mike Pompeo the Secretary of State, who has promoted the idea of talks with Iran. He told the media about such a meeting at the UN General Assembly in New York- "Sure. The president has made it very clear that he is prepared to meet with no pre-conditions." The willingness to try new ideas even contrary ones to policy pursued only a short while ago as long as the desired goal is reached is a feature of this presidency and key advisers. From the beginning of the Trump administration there is a firm sense of the need to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. and reduce foreign entanglements that have dragged on wasting resources and destroying priorities. With a willingness to try all sorts of approaches even ones that appear to be contradictory always keeping the end goal in sight. ...

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With the sale of its stake in TNK-BP to Rosneft BP will have 19.75% of Rosneft. It will lose TNK-BP's oil production of 986 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and it will gain 900 million barels from its share of Rosneft output. BP's oil reserves will increase by 12.5% after the deal. TNK-BP has paid annual dividend of an average of $2.2 billion since 2004, BP payout from Rosneft is estimated at $500 million. BP's share of the new Rosneft after the deal would be $3.6 billion in expected earnings for 2013 compared to $4.1 billion from the 50% share of TNK-BP. Some of this dilution may be restored by share buybacks by BP.

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Some local governments in China are making vaccination mandatory. China is setting a goal of getting 64%  of the population fully vaccinated by the end of 2021. In European Union countries mandatory vaccination by country or region is now being put in place to fight new coronavirus variants that spread faster in the population. The reopening of economy, business and tourism is increasing the risk from variants in summer 2021. The mandatory vaccination is a way to increase the percentage of the population that is vaccinated. Getting younger people who lag behind to get vaccinated is important to protect the percentage of the elderly population that is still not vaccinated. There are risks also to the younger population as seen in previous waves of the pandemic. The initial hesitation to make health pass showing a person is vaccinated mandatory was because only a small fraction of the population was vaccinated in Europe. Now that over 50% are vaccinated in most EU countries and UK, that hesitation thinking that it is discriminatory to those people who did not have access to vaccines no longer exists. Ample vaccine supplies and the misinformation spread about vaccines are making action on health pass necessary to protect the overall population. National governments in France, Denmark, Austria, Greece, and local governments in Germany, Portugal and other EU countries such as Ireland, Italy, see the danger from coronavirus variants that spread quickly as too big to take any risks a second time. ...

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Raphael Glucksmann is emerging as a surprise for the Socialists just as Macron emerged out of the cabinet of Francois Hollande as leader of En Marche. Socialists and Democrats Alliance is the party group in the EU parliament that represents social democratic parties in Europe that govern in Germany, Denmark, Spain and are prominent in Sweden and France. Melenchon leads an alliance of socialist parties in France but has not done as well with moderates. Raphael Glucksmann is seen as a new voice for Socialists in France in upcoming elections. Migration has shaken up parties in Europe but this may be receding in importance as most of the socialist parties have shifted to strict policies to keep out migrants. This is happening in the US as Mr. Biden has closed the border with Mexico. Climate Change was an issue in elections helping the Greens in the last chancery election. As socialist parties and conservative parties adopt the Greens policies on climate this has reduced support for Greens from the peak in 2020. ...

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The US ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach after Liberation Day- soon to be relics from the China Trade of yesterday. On April 9 US responded to China's 34% tariff with another 50% tariff of its own on China. The US tariff now stands at 104% to China's 84%. China says it won't back down and "will fight to the end." The US president DJT is now certain to restore world trade to the days before China entered the World Trade Organization and upended the world trade order leading to the deindustrialization of the US when US corporations followed Apple in 1998. With Tim  Cook in charge of Apple manufacturing in 1998 doing the first major act of outshoring the whole manufacturing base of a company to China. It was a strategy- to use the huge profits of a three punch approach- brand the product at the high end to command high price in the US through innovation and design (punch 1), followed by making using Chinese labor at low cost in China (punch 2), to generate the huge profits to create a virtuous cycle of investment from these profits to generate new cycle of growth (punch 3). What Apple gained, America's workers lost. This was sold by economists at the service of corporate narrative that it was good for America in the face of the facts showing just the reverse for 25 years 2000-2025. Soon almost the entire manufacturing base of the US was shipped out to China, or Chinese supply bases Vietnam. Japan fell in line and became a supplier to this China Manufacturing for the World. What started out as Microsoft demolishing Apple by 1998 and Apple using this 1-2-3 punch strategy turned into first a disaster for American workers, a loss of the working class leading to the loss of the middle class backbone of America, replaced by Silicon Valley and financial interests in New York City and disproportionate rewards to capital, the rural and small towns, cities across America's heartland thrown into decay and neglect.   ...

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Moritz Schuller of Tassspiegel writes a moving story in BBC News about Helmut Kohl, former chancellor of Germany, who died at the age of 87. Kohl helped bring chancellor Merkel to prominence by appointing her to positions in his government, first as Minister of Women and Youth in 1991, and then as Minister for the Environment in 1994. The two developed a bond that lasted. Merkel said on Kohl's 85th birthday -"Germany has much to thank him for."  Schuller presents a different side of Kohl in this article. There is this Kohl who had this tactical grasp of events as the Berlin Wall fell and German reunification was within reach. Who had this warm touch with other leaders, including a special relationship with French president Mitterand that advanced relations between the two countries. Yet he also describes the Kohl who was forgotten after being pushed out of office in a donations scandal. The rush to setup the eurozone currency and expanding it without the needed financial arrangements were seen by Germans as a weakness coming from the Kohl years in office. By 2008 Kohl had a debilitating fall and by this time was forgotten by Germans. Close to the end in 2014 at the Frankfurt Book Fair to present a book on his own view of the events of 1989-90, Kohl was seen as a frail figure, in a wheelchair and unable to speak much. ...

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The higher proportion of consumer spending in India in 2022 that comes from higher income groups with incomes over 1 million rupees annually. Lower income budget items including two wheelers and small appliances are not faring as well as higher end appliances and cars. Higher end consumer spending has recovered faster to increase above pre covid years levels as lower income household spending lags.

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New details emerge on how India informed Pakistan that only terrorist bases were targets not the Pakistan military. India's Foereign Minister Jaishankar says this was to make clear that only terrorist bases would be struck in response to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on tourists. This was to be careful so that deescalatory steps could be taken. When Pakistan chose to attack military targets in India India did the same on military targets and air defense systems in Pakistan were taken out. At that point India insisted that for a stop to the war Pakistan's general would call India's general to end the war, which is what happened. Jaishankar made it clear that US Marco Rubio of JD Vance complied with India's request to the US that only after the Pakistan general called the Indian general would the conflict be stopped as India had not targeted Pakistan military.

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It is hard to imagine that one is even writing about this, as shocking as it is- the 4 or 5 minutes between a decision to launch nuclear weapons and the end of life on this planet earth as we know it. Here Sam Nunn, a U.S. senator who was part of the negotiations for arms control and who is the leading American in this field talks about the unimaginable danger. He says the strategy from the Cold War where Russia and the U.S. put their nuclear forces in a position to be launched within minutes, 4 to 5 minutes, is outdated and needs to be changed. Hillary Clinton described the issue in the television debate. Yet this was not discussed because of the nature of the 2016 presidential election with lack of serious discussion.  And both Nunn and Clinton emphasize that once the missiles are in the air they cannot be ordered to go back. Accidental error, judgemental error, informational error in which one side thinks the other has launched a missile, a firing by mistake, are possible. In this situation Nunn says Trump is temperamentally unfit, and Clinton is fit to take on the responsibility. Yet the question this raises is as Nunn signals- is anyone but God fit to make this decision to launch nuclear weapons. Nunn says it is outdated and wrong to have only a few minutes, as such a decision cannot be made in a few hours or days, much less in 5 minutes. Nunn brings up a discussion he had in Moscow when he brought this up with Russians and president Putin. Russian president Putin told Nunn that he was fully aware of this. Putin's response was- "Senator Nunn, at some point it becomes automatic."  Nunn does not clarify what this means, or what Putin means to say. For people on the planet it is not enough to have Reagan, Gorbachev, Clinton, as Nunn mentions being responsible people for a nuclear decision. The current state of affairs is simply shocking and the lack of attention to this is also shocking. Equally dangerous is that 20 countries have weapons usable nuclear material, and sophisticated hacking of command and control processes is another danger.       ...

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Donald Trump's Style book would include things like, using a little hyperbole, exaggeration, like setting up a wall to stop immigration. It also includes attacks on opponents, the better with some publicity, good or bad, as his attacks on Carly Fiorina for looks, Jeb Bush for energy, and Megyn Kelly of Fox News show. Trump writes about this in his book written three decades ago- "The Art of the Deal." In the book he says that putting down the competition can help. And what about the deal itself? Its all for the joy of doing it, not much about what its about, or how it will all end up in helping people in their daily lives.

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There is a serious risk of an abrupt reversal in the appreciation of the currencies of the Latin American region. The Brazilian real and the Chilean peso have appreciated significantly since the 2008 crisis. Large inflows of capital into emerging markets have led to the appreciation as investors looked for higher interest rates. Asian demand for iron ore, copper, soyabeans and other commodities also pushed up the value of Latin American currencies. The IMF issued a warning in April 2011 about the high risk of an "abrupt end" to this if commodity prices declined or capital inflows dried up. Gray Newman, the chief Latin America economist at Morgan Stanley sees the risk of a sudden steep reversal.

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As U.S. money market funds have reduced lending to French banks, and lending maturities have shortened to seven days, French banks are facing a shortage of dollars. According to the Federal Reserve, foreign banks and their branches provide 25% of the commercial and industrial loans in the U.S. In its response to this BNP expects to reduce dollar denominated loans by $42 billion by the end of 2011 and another $40 billion in 2012, according to BNP officials. Societe Generale CEO, Frederic Oudea, says his bank will pull back on making loans to shipping, aircraft, real-estate and leveraged finance in the U.S. This will reduce credit growth in the U.S. economy.

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China's ginni coefficient at 0.5, has changed from 0.3 several decades ago, according to Li Shi at Beijing Normal University. A level above 0.4 is considered socially destabilizing. 150 million migrant workers from rural areas are denied access to benefits such as health care, education and pensions which are provided to urban residents. Migrant incomes are also affected by rising food prices. Estimates of per capita income are $935 a year for rural areas, up 13% in 2010, and $2,965 in urban areas, up 10 % in 2010. An economist at the National Economic Research Institute in Beijing says the income gap is understated because the incomes of families in the higher end are understated.

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The chip industry is affected by price declines and overcapacity. No. 3 maker Elpida Memory filed for bankruptcy. Samsung has a 45% share of the market and Hynix Semiconductor has a 21.5% share, with Micron at 12.1%. Elpida Memory's CEO, Mr. Sakamoto says: "we never imagined the yen would become this strong." Plans for an alliance with Micron Technology did not materialize. Elpida was the result of merging the operations of NEC and Hitachi in chipmaking in 1999. Japanese chipmakers subsequently focussed on the high end chips for smartphones, moving production of lower margin chips to Taiwanese operations. Ironically Elpida comes from the Greek word "elpis" meaning hope, and the d for dynamic and a for association.

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Moodys Analytics forecasts U.S. unemployment at above 7% at the end of 2013. Part of the reason is the aging population effect and older people dropping out of the workforce, and another reason being businesses have to hire to grow as labor costs have already been cut sharply during the lack of hiring in 2009-2011. The problems in housing with foreclosures, the U.S. deficit, and the eurozone economic crisis will continue to affect the U.S. No mention is made of the effects of a slowdown in China and other emerging markets in addition to the slowdown in the eurozone, as these risks appear to be contained for the timebeing according to Moodys Analytics.

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Campbell Soup Co. acquires Bolthouse Farms of Bakersfield, California, a maker of high-end juices, for $1.55 billion. By doing this Campbell is shifting into beverages and into fresh foods from its traditional business in canned condensed soups which have a long shelf life. The packaged fresh food category is growing at 7% a year much faster than the canned soup business. This also complements Campbell's V8 vegetable juice products.The soup business is declining because of a change in consumer preferences for simplicity in meals, lack of new products and ineffective discounting. Campbell is planning to introduce 30 new soup items, and packaging in pouches with newer flavors, to get younger people to try its products.

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This NYT editorial lists ways in which the NSA violated the law- the internal auditor's report showing NSA broke federal privacy laws, breaking into the communication links of Google, Apple and other data centers, James Clapper Jr., director of national intelligence testifying in March that the NSA was not collecing data on millions of Americans which was "a lie" says NYT, Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court saying one of the practices violated the Constitution, and federal judge Leon's ruling saying the magnitude of phone records collection violated the U.S. Constitution calling it Orwellian. It calls on the Obama administration to end the vilification of Snowden and provide Snowden with incentive to return to the U.S.

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Incredible story of a Denmark software company run by a 41 year old bodybuilder Stein Bagger, who called it IT Factory. The company, its software deals, everything about it including Stein Bagger's PhD was phony, and in the end outrageously unbelievable that something like this could be allowed to happen. How gullible can people get? This fellow was named Ernst and Young Entrepreneur of the year with a Danish minister present at an event in Copenhagen, just when he was surrendering to police in Los Angeles. Banks and IBM and other firms lost $182 in total as this fellow borrowed from banks to record fake deals of purchases by phony customers from his company.

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Ways to increase transparency in government spending by showing on the internet a host of different measures of how the government is doing in achieving the goals set in prudent and effective spending to shore up the economy and create jobs, and help the unemployed. All these indicators should be available to the public to be able to hold the government accountable and see what has been accomplished. Kennedy and Enzi, 2 Senators, are introducing a bill to allocate $7.5 million for such adatabase of ational indicators. The data would be selected by the National Academy of Sciences, and would cover education, the environment, energy use, housing, health care, and roads and other public works.

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California state and public employees retirement and pension fund conts 1.6 million former and current public employees whose benefits are guaranteed. With returns for the fiscal year ending in June 2008 a negative 20% it may have to ask employers such as cities and counties to increase their contributions by 2 to 4% of their payroll. Typically Calperskeeps only 2% of its assets in cash but it has to raise cash to meet committments to private equity firms and real estate partners. Calpers said it had $188.8 billion under management as of October 22, 2008, down 21% from the end of June. Of this 63% are in global stocks which have seen big declines due to a global selloff.