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Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, accepts EU and IMF aid for recapitalizing Spain's banks. Rajoy tells a news conference in Spain on June 10th, 2012, "nobody pressured me," he did this because it would "help the credibility of the European project." The Partido Popular took decisive steps to improve Spain's competitiveness during the first 6 months of the new administration, but was caught by surprise by the problems in Bankia, a bank put together from failing cajas savings banks. The cajas savings banks were heavily involved in the housing bubble in Spain.

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Michel Sapin faces the challenge of convincing the EU and Germany that France should get more leeway for tax cuts and other measures to boost the economy and lower unemployment. He has been through difficult situations before when following approval of the Maastricht Treaty the French Franc came under speculative attacks by investors betting France could not implement the Treaty. At the time he was finance minister in the Mitterand government. As labor minister since 2012, Sapin implemented Hollande promises in the elections- for government sponsored jobs for young people, creating contracts to bind young and older workers in the workplace, and reform of professional training schemes.

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Ford utilization of EU plants is less than one of 2 plants 2025. It is renting out the unused plant capacity to Nissan which needs this capacity to make cars in the US to overcome DJT tariffs on imported autos from Japan.

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DJT commenting on the prospects for peace in Ukraine on August 19 after the meeting with Putin in Alaska and EU leaders at the White House by August 18. He comments on Russia's problem with European peacekeeping force- “I don’t think it’s going to be a problem, to be honest with you. I think Putin is tired of it. I think they’re all tired of it. But you never know. We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks.”

On the reasons for making this effort to get everybody together to the table- not a Peace Prize as the media says. As usual DJT says something few would expect to hear-

“I want to try and get to Heaven if possible. I’m hearing I’m not doing well. I really hit the bottom of the totem pole. But if I can get to Heaven, this will be one of the reasons.”

 

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Washington Post Analysis and details of Census Bureau trade information in September 2025 -showing the country by country and product tariffs by US and which tariffs are waiting for final trade agreements. China, India and Switzerland, Mexico face high tariffs. UK, EU, South Korea, Japan have made trade agreements with the US, China, India Swiss are still to finalize trade agreements leading to the uncertainty. The North American Trade Agreement is being renegotiated leading to uncertainty for Mexico and Canada which have both benefitted from trade with the US to detriment of US manufacturers.  China has huge surpluses that keep growing over time to $1 trillion ($992 billion) a year in 2024.  DJT Tariffs are designed as a bold step to remake the international trading system so that it does not work to the benefit of other nations gaming the system over decades as US administrations Clinton, Bush, Obama, paid no attention. Trade Deficits and the National Debt are a problem not just the National Debt. On the National Debt Republicans have pushed through cuts in parts of the budget where costs had escalated tremendously. ...

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Under the rules for the European currency and the European Union there is no mechanism or process of fines or other sanctions to promote compliance to debt and deficit rules. In the case of Greece, an examination of budget reports shows that Greece never met the deficit rule of 3% for any year except 2006 and it has never been within 30 percentage points of the debt ceiling. Greece's statistics are faulty and deficit figures are continually being revised upwards. Several times the figures were quadruple what was initially reported in late 2009, for instance the deficit figure was 3.7% of GDP, then revised to 13% of GDP, setting off the current crisis for the Euro and the European Union. In 2001 Greece failed to reflect $2.2 billon in military expenses. According to Eurostat, the EU statistics authority this was 10 times what was saved from the derivatives swap arranged by Goldman Sachs to trim Greece's deficit. That transaction trimmed the deficit by one tenth of a percentage point.

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For the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis a initiative has been put to voters for tackling executive pay and bonus. A large majority of 68% of Swiss voters supported the 24 item Minder Initiative which restricts executive pay and bonuses. The Minder Initiative sends a signal to the rest of the world, says Christa Markwalder, a legislator for the pro-business Free Democratic Party. It provides other countries with a distinct approach to corporate governance and executive compensation. The EU decision to impose strict limits on executive pay and bonuses influenced Swiss voters. The EU decision bans bankers bonuses from exceeding fixed salary without shareholder approval, and limits flexible pay to twice the salary. The 24 item Minder measure gives shareholders the right to block proposed executive pay and bonuses. It also has penalties for violators of 6 times annual salary or imprisonment of upto 3 years. Businessmen and politician Thomas Minder has worked for three years promoting his Initiative and it was finally put to voters in 2013. For the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis, serious action is being taken to limit excessive executive compensation and bonuses in banking and other industries. It comes as austerity measures and high unemployment are influencing public opinion in Spain, UK, Italy and other European countries which have suffered banking crises....

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Theresa May becomes the only candidate for leadership of the Conservative Party after Ms Leadsom withdraws from the race. No leadership vote will no take place with Conservative Party members and no early general election is planned. May is expected to become prime minister of Britain by July 12, replacing David Cameron. Her theme is for "one Britain" and to do away with the rising inequality and gap between London and the rest of the country, which was part of the anxiety of voters who voted 52% for Brexit on issues of immigration burden on social and health services, national sovereignty, and a sense of ordinary people being neglected by elites in both parties. May will invoke Article 50 to leave the European Union and begin a 2 year period of negotiations only after she has developed a clear negotiating strategy. Kenneth Clarke, a Conservative Party cabinet minister called May a "bloody difficult woman," but this did not affect May, who said Mr Juncker of the EU was the one who would find this out in negotiations.  What is significant for Britain is May's moderate position coupled with a clear goal for removing some of the causes of the inequity in British society, which is needed for Britain to remain united. She called on companies like Amazon, Google and others to pay their fair share of taxes, and made clear her intent to strengthen the mechanisms for controlling executive pay. Also part of this strategy will be a more effective immigration control policy, which she did not implement vigorously as Home Secretary in the Cameron government, partly because of constraints set by EU membership. May made clear her agenda going forward by saying: "There is a growing divide between a more prosperous older generation and a struggling younger generation. And there is a gaping chasm between wealthy London and the rest of the country."  Changes May is supporting are to make executive pay rules to become binding not just advisory, and for employees and consumers to gain seats on company boards.  ...

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Overseas travel from Russia is cut down significantly as US and European Union restrict Russian planes from flying over their airspace. Many Russian planes in Europe were grounded after the invasion of Ukraine. The UAE and Central Asia, Turkey are frequent destinations for Russian planes following the invasion and the response of the US and the EU. Dubai is the single most frequent destination say the NYT.

During the pandemic China reduced overseas travel significantly. Fewer Americans and Europeans are traveling to China with the lockdowns and zero covid policies. The result is that people living in China and Russia have significantly less contact in 2022 with the outside world compared to 2019 the year before the pandemic. The flow of information is also affected with the state controlling more of the information that people see in Russia and China.

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Ukraine is in a position after the refugee outflow and closure of some industrial operations to send energy to Poland, Romania, Hungary and other countries in the European Union. Ukraine is speeding up synchronizing power lines in Ukraine to that in Poland so that energy can be exported easily. Ukraine could send 1.6 gigawatts of energy a day to EU countries up from 350 megawatts today once the changes are completed to the energy transmission infrastructure. Ukraine energy is cheaper than energy produced in Poland because of nuclear energy plants in Ukraine from the Soviet period. 

Workers are restoring a now defunct power line from a 2 gigawatt nuclear plant in western Ukraine to a nearby Polish city. Projects that would take decades are being done in months with US aid. Energy exports could bring Ukraine $1.6 billion a year. 

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The worst fears of Brexit of young people, three quarters of whom in 18-24 year age group voted against Brexit, are being realized. There is less travel to Europe and it is harder to have cross border interaction between Britain and the European Union with additional documentation required. A cross party report by the House of Lords shows the impact on mobility for young people. The restrictions are seen in the report as "an unmitigated disaster" citing experts. The pathway to temporary professional employment was once a way to broaden experience and contacts in the early years of working life. This is now far more difficult to access says this report in The Guardian. The same is true for school trips- in 2022 the number of pupils on such trips from EU to UK dropped 83%. Conservatives have shown a complete indifference to this. 

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Lack of ammunition on the Ukrainian side. Russia losing huge numbers of casualties as a large part of its army is committed to the war. The sense of a war no side can win. Dysfunctional aspects of foreign policies in Europe that will cost $138 billion to $750 billion to fix by rebuilding damage in Ukraine, money that could have been used in the absence of the conflict to support the action against climate change and in development needs after the pandemic devastated economies of many countries. No country has surplus money after the pandemic- NYT reports today that China is struggling to meet the high health costs of the elderly during the pandemic. India has huge needs in transport, logistics, housing, healthcare. Both India and China lack a system of social security like that of the US and EU countries. 

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China's total public debt was 95% of GDP in 2022, Japan's was 62% in 1991. It's population aging faster than Japan's with population declining in 2022, Japan's declining in 2008 twenty years after its bubble burst. China's per capita income at $12,850 in 2022, compared to Japan's at $29,000 in 1991. China is facing more difficult headwinds than Japan in many ways. There is also higher tension in trade relations with US and EU limiting export growth. There is also the policy stance of the Communist Party that sees rural areas left behind with about 35% people in rural areas and Xi is slowing growth to reduce disparities and housing construction led speculative growth. In Japan urbanization was 77% in 1991, compared to 65% in China today. 

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Princes MBZ of the UAE and MBS of Saudi Arabia were seen as close with MBZ the mentor of Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia (MBS). Saudis and UAE differ on how high oil prices should go. Both MBZ MBS wider mindsets are close based on modernization of the Arab world. Oil price increases mean hardship for most of the world's population, a shift of wealth from more populous countries such as Turkey and India to countries with very small numbers of people as the UAE (9 million) and Saudi Arabia 35 million). It poses hardship in cost of living for people in Asia, Africa and in EU, the US. This calls for a vigorous effort to make the switch to solar energy to reduce inequality and wide disparities of wealth in Asia and the Middle East.

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Americans in retirement are able to rebuild their savings with interest on money market funds of over 5%. This is the result of 5% percentage points of consecutive rate increases by Jay Powell's Fed. In addition about $121 billion went to savers as they faced $151 billion in higher interest rate costs on mortgages and loans. The result with a strong labor market and lower inflation of about 3% is an economy that is resilient and can provide the 5 or 7 plus  years of growth needed for America to meet the challenges it faces with its allies in the EU, Asia and Latin America, Africa- to tackle climate change, to rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure, to invest in education and healthcare, to improve worker incomes, and build its manufacturing at home into a strong thriving sector for good paying worker incomes.

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The large Iranian missile attack on Israel on April 13th 2024 was expelled with American, UK and Jordan's help. It cost about $1 billion in antimissile systems. The US does not seek an expansion of the war. The events show how without a clear policy on non escalation with the US taking leadership- how without this events could spin out of control in unanticipated ways. And the need for priority to be given to rebuilding after the pandemic, not conflict that is driven in a random manner when most of the largest countries on every continent are committed to peaceful development to improve standard of living of their people- US and EU, China and India, Brazil and Mexico, African nations, and most other nations in Asia and Latin America. It is for Biden and Scholz/Macron, Xi and Modi, to make this happen.

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PM Narendra Modi is nominated in the historic old parliament building in New Delhi for a new five year term in office by the parties in the National Democratic Alliance on June 7, 2024. The importance of the event is because of the 294 seats of 543 in parliament of the NDA parties and the nomination based on achieving the vision of a developed country similar to the US, EU, Japan and China, by 2030. With the modernization complete by 2047, the 100th anniversary of Gandhi's struggle that won Hind Swaraj (Indian freedom), the title of a book put out by Gandhiji in 1909 as he negotiated a settlement with the British Empire for South African Indians and Black people. Leaders of every party in NDA cited this as the reason and the goal in their nomination speeches.

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The EU statistics agency Eurostat reported that the eurozone countries GDP declined by 0.3% in the 4th quarter compared to the third quarter of 2011. The decline for Germany was 0.2%. For Italy the decline was 0.7% over the prior quarter according to Istat, the Italian statistics agency. Spain 0.3% decline over the prior quarter. France experienced 0.2% growth over the prior quarter with larger exports by Airbus and more business investment. Italy plans cuts to military spending reducing aircraft purchases, buying 90 instead of 131 Lockheed F-35 fighter jets. Only France and Slovakia showed quarterly growth.

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Spain and Portugal growing at 0.7% in the first quarter of 2024, and Italy at 0.3%  are outpacing Germany and France at 0.2%. Manufacturing has slowed down in Germany and France. Overall US 1.6% growth in matched by the EU in 2024.

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Katya Adler, Europe Editor of the BBC, points out the change in Germany as AKK, Anne Margaret Kampbrauer, the new leader of the ruling CDU party, brings a change of tone in its outreach to Britain. AKK is slated to be the next chancellor. Her vision was expressed in a letter to The Times saying with other Germans that her wish was for Britain to remain in the EUroepan Union, that she was asking Britain to reconsider. She also supports a second referendum on Brexit.    There is also anxiety in Germany about the effects of no-deal Brexit taking out 0.5% of German GDP at a time when Germany's economy is struggling in 2019. About 100,000 job loss is expected from no-deal Brexit in Germany. As Germany's tone is changing, AKK offers a new face in German relations with Britain that looks towards building a better relationship with Britain. Could this change minds in Britain as a new mood takes place in Germany, and in some ways in France with the emergence of populists in recent years calling for France to leave the EU. AKK tell BBC that Brexit has been a strain for all of us, that in some ways it has paralyzed us. She tells the BBC's Adler that anything that keeps Britain in the EU is something that would make her personally very happy. Rarely have German leaders or public expressed it in this way. Compared to the indifference of the past Germans and Britons having second thoughts offer some more light to the issues of Germany and Britain at a more personal level. ...

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The new regulations that Britain's FSA and Germany wish to see implemented. FSA would like to see hedge funds regulated, regulation of credit defalt swaps and other financial instruments not currently regulated, a larger set aside of capital to cushion losses in a downturn, and an active regulator who would probe into the books and capability of staffs at financial institutions. Germany also wants to strengthen the authority of its regulator, and wants to see a bigger set aside amount for losses in a downturn in a countercyclical manner. Britiain's FSA also wants to regulate the local branches of foreign financial insttitutions.

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A 2004 rule made under SEC Chairman Donaldson and requested by the investment banks one of which Goldman Sachs was headed by Paulson changed the whole playing field and created the dangerous situation of huge leveraging that has led to the collapse of some of these banks. Older regulations limited the amount of debt that these investment banks could take on. With the new rule billions of dollars held in reserve as a cushion against losses could now be used by these banks to invest in mortgage securities and credit derivatives, a form of insurance for bond holders. Others on the SEC who supported it included Goldschmid, an authority on securites law at Columbia who asked relevant questions but relied on the assurance of Annette Nazareth, head of market regulation that under the new rules the investment banks would also be restricted by the commission from risky activity, that under the new rule the SEC would be able to look into the books of the parent companies and subsidiaries of the investment banks. But no detailed and strict oversight methods were laid out, and instead these banks were allowed to go out on their own without any restrictions. The riskiness of investments would be measured by the computer models and brains not of the SEC but of the investment banks themselves. And these banks went on a leveraging binge with 33 to 1 for Bear Stearns which collapsed in 2008. One lone dissenter was a person who wrote the computer models to determine the riskiness of investments which were used by the banks, was at the University of Chicago, and was a risk management expert. He cautioned in a letter that these computer models had failed in the 1997 LTCM collapse and could not be relied on as environments change. At the SEC oversight was handled by 7 people and this was to oversee some $4 trillion in assets, hopelessly understaffed, and most of them believing that the investment banks would self police themselves as they were ideologically believers in deregulation. So no inspections were done for an year and half upto August 2008 even when there were clear signals of trouble according to an Inspector General's report. This group had no director since March 2007. Soon after the rule Donaldson the SEC chairman left and a Congressman from a conservative district in California became Chairman, Christopher Cox. He favored deregulation and may not have even been aware that the 2004 rule had created a new and dangerous environment, so he followed his instincts and even dismantled a risk management unit Donaldson had established. Which is why McCain has called for his firing....

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The failure of Basel 1 and 2 and the effects of the Asian market crisis in 1997 in creating a situation of current account surpluses in Asia and other countries that ended up in extra liquidity in the western countries where debt went out of control. The concerns about negotiations to enhance the role of emerging economies in the IMF, the Financial Stability Forum and other organizations, as these organizations play a larger role and need larger access to funds. The chance that with such a large agenda especially in the area of regulation and enlarged representation of emerging economies in international organizations like the IMF, the leaders of G20 may simply use this meeting and meetings in coming months to forward their own leader and country agendas, leaving these issues unresolved for now.

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Estimates of the exposure of European banks to Greece's sovereign debt shows BNP Paribas has 5.01 billion euros in exposure to Greek debt, Societe Generale 4.23 billion euros, Deutsche Bank 3.02 billion euros, and HSBC 1.94 billion euros, Credit Agricole 0.85 billion euros, Unicredit 0.80 billion euros, Santander 0.51 billion euros. The exposure of French, German, Italian and Spanish banks in Greece is a critical difficulty in resolving the crisis, as the banks are still in a fragile condition after the global financial crisis of 2008. With the debate on resolution of the crisis focusing on how a three way distribution of the burden should take place between austerity cuts, bondholder and creditors, and taxpayers in Germany and other EU countries, negotiations are finally taking place between each European government and the banks of that country. Three countries where such talks are taking place are Germany, France and the Netherlands. Finance ministry officials in Germany and France met with representatives of the banks and insurers in their country to arrange for the banks to voluntarily take losses on their holdings. The respective holdings of Greece's government debt according to the Bank for International Settlements are: French banks $14 billion, German banks $22.65 billion. Overall exposure to Greece is higher for French banks- at $56.7 billion for French banks and $33.97 billion for German banks. This opens the door to a Brady Plan type solution for the financial crisis in EU countries Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain....